Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - Multiple factors have driven oil prices higher, including OPEC's steady production increase, geopolitical risks from Ukraine, and supply disruptions due to wildfires in Canada [1][5] - As of the latest close, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures settled at $62.52 per barrel, up $1.73, a 2.85% increase, while Brent crude oil futures rose to $64.63 per barrel, up $1.85, a 2.95% increase [1] - The market is currently in a tight balance, indicating its ability to absorb additional supply despite concerns over geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Iran [1][6] Group 2: OPEC and Supply Predictions - OPEC is expected to maintain its production increase of 410,000 barrels per day in July, alleviating market fears of a faster exit from production cuts [4][5] - Goldman Sachs predicts that OPEC will exit its voluntary production cuts by August, while Morgan Stanley believes that the increase in production will continue into the following months, potentially leading to a price drop [2][3] - Both firms maintain their price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs estimating average prices of $56 and $60 per barrel for WTI and Brent respectively this year, while Morgan Stanley anticipates Brent averaging $57.50 per barrel in the last two quarters of the year [2][3] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks and Market Reactions - The escalation of the Ukraine conflict has heightened geopolitical risk premiums, which counteract the bearish effects of OPEC's production increases [5] - The EU is preparing its 18th round of sanctions against Russia, focusing on energy revenues, which may further tighten global supply and increase oil prices [2][5] - Historical data suggests that U.S. sanctions on Russia and Iran have previously disrupted supply chains and elevated oil prices [5] Group 4: Market Self-Correction Mechanism - The current low oil price environment, around $60 per barrel, is triggering a self-correcting mechanism in the market, with shale oil producers warning of potential production declines [6] - Resilient demand supported by global economic indicators and seasonal consumption peaks is providing a foundation for oil prices, enhancing confidence in the market's tight balance [6]

摩根士丹利表示，预计OPEC+在8月、9月、10月这三个月继续恢复石油产量，从而令油价进一步走 低。OPEC+周六宣布同意连续第三个月大幅增加石油产量，对此摩根士丹利表示，这意味着到10月， 此前削减的220万桶/日的产量将被全数解除。 ...

欧佩克联盟上周六（5月31日）决定7月每日大幅增产41.1万桶，以夺回市场份额并惩罚超产成员国如伊 拉克、哈萨克斯坦。此举在意料之中，表明该组织事实上的领导者沙特的石油政策发生了显著转变，从 限产保价转向增产保额。邓正红软实力表示，鉴于此前有关欧佩克联盟将超预期的传闻导致油价跳水， 最新的增产公告令市场松了一口气，石油软实力盘整向上，周一（6月2日）开盘，WTI原油迅速拉涨， 日内涨幅一度扩大至2%。 运用邓正红软实力思想分析，欧佩克联盟特别是沙特主导下的连续增产决策是一次资源整合力、战略影 响力、环境适应力协同作用的集中展现。对内强化纪律约束，惩罚超产，对外主动争夺份额，挤压页岩 油，彰显资源导向型竞争软实力。通过精准的预期管理如渐进释放信号、避免超预期等和强调基本面如 低库存、需求稳，成功将"增产利空"转化为"信心利好"，体现了高超的战略沟通影响力和对定价权的维 护。敏锐适应特朗普政府的政治压力、全球经济动荡如关税战等带来的窗口期、夏季季节性需求高峰以 及成员国实际产能约束，展现了极强的环境适应力。沙特国内经济多元化的进展也为其政策提供了更大 灵活性。 因此，"石油软实力盘整向上"的实质是市场对欧佩克联盟 ...

周一（6月2日）亚太盘初，美国三大股指期货跌超0.3%，上周五美国总统特朗普宣布将钢铝关税翻倍 至50%。 现货黄金涨0.4%，报3329美元/盎司。 WTI原油期货上涨1.8%，报61.96美元/桶，布伦特原油期货涨1.7%，上周六OPEC+提高石油供应量。 ...

善思录：陆天然/文 在全球化深度交织的今天，美国面临的战略困境已非传统意义上的经济危机或技术竞争。当美债规模突破36万亿美元、美元汇率在7.3关口震荡、美股因关 税政策引发暴跌时，这些经济指标的波动虽引人担忧，却远未触及美国霸权的核心命脉。真正令美国精英阶层寝食难安的，是其军事机器一旦在战场上遭遇 挫败——尤其是输给一个军事体量远逊于己的国家——将引发的连锁反应可能彻底动摇其全球统治根基。 自冷战结束以来，美国通过军事力量投射建立起的"单极霸权"，本质上是一种基于实力威慑的秩序建构。2025财年8952亿美元的国防预算，占全球军费总额 的40%，支撑着美军在全球800多个军事基地的存在。这种军事优势不仅是美国干预地区事务的"硬实力"，更是其维护美元霸权、科技垄断和盟友体系的"软 实力"载体。 在经济层面，美元的全球储备货币地位与其军事霸权紧密绑定。当美国通过军事威慑确保中东石油以美元结算时，石油美元体系便成为支撑美元信用的基 石。而美债的稳定发行，同样依赖于投资者对美国军事保护下的全球安全环境的信心。2025年美债到期规模达9.2万亿美元，若市场因军事失败而质疑美国 维护全球秩序的能力，大规模抛售美债将导致利 ...

Group 1 - In March 2025, the petroleum coke production in Hebei Province reached 73,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.3% [1] - The growth rate in March 2025 was 21.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and 19.2 percentage points higher than the national average [1] - The production accounted for 2.7% of the national petroleum coke output of 2.741 million tons during the same period [1] Group 2 - From January to March 2025, the total petroleum coke production in Hebei Province was 223,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 24.2% [2] - The growth rate for this period was 30.0 percentage points higher than the previous year, and 28.8 percentage points higher than the national average [2] - This production represented 2.8% of the national petroleum coke output of 8.063 million tons for the same period [2]

Group 1 - OPEC+ agreed on a significant production increase plan of 411,000 barrels per day for July during an online meeting on May 31 [1][2] - Concerns over multiple oil-producing countries accelerating their exit from voluntary production cuts led to fluctuations in international oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices closing at $60.79 and $63.90 per barrel, respectively [1][2] - The overall decline in international oil prices this year has been approximately 15%, raising concerns about the future performance of the oil extraction industry [2] Group 2 - Analysts from JPMorgan indicated that the global oil market is currently oversupplied by 2.2 million barrels per day, suggesting that price adjustments may be necessary to restore balance [3] - Violeta Todorova from Leverage Shares noted that if OPEC+ countries increase supply as expected, oil prices could drop by about 10%, potentially reaching $53 to $55 per barrel [4] - The low oil prices pose financial risks to oil producers worldwide, particularly affecting U.S. shale oil producers who may struggle to respond to calls for increased drilling [4]

石油输出国组织5月31日发表声明，八个OPEC+国家（沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、伊拉克、阿联酋、科威 特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和阿曼）5月31日举行线上会议，决定在7月份增产41.1万桶/日。这是上 述八个产油国连续第三个月实施同等力度的增产，打破了该组织多年来靠协同减产支撑油价的市场策 略，也将国际油价拖至四年来的低位。声明称，产油国根据不断变化的市场情况，逐步增加的产量可能 会暂停或逆转。（智通财经） ...

欧佩克+声明：八个成员国（沙特、俄罗斯、伊拉克、阿联酋、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和阿 曼）将在七月份增产41.1万桶/日。根据不断变化的市场情况，逐步增加的产量可能会暂停或逆转。他 们还确认，将全额补偿自2024年1月以来的任何过剩产量。 ...

市场消息：欧佩克+同意在7月份将石油日产量增加41.1万桶/日。 ...