中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 大限将至贸易谈判仍有较多问题存在。另外市场关于美国财政法案讨论较多， | | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 但是已经落地，财政扩张既成事实，中长期货币宽松、不确定性仍然较多，长 | | | | 期全球秩序尚在重塑，黄金战略配置。【765-790】 | | | | 美国财政大扩张，部分国家数据积极，白银需求有支撑。白银盘面 8700 附近支 | | 白银 | 强势震荡 | 撑较强，品种特性弹性较大，受基本金属和黄金价格情绪影响较大，高位区间 | | | | 思路操作，做好仓位控制。【8800-9075】 | | | | 特朗普关税施压，宏观情绪回落，基本面对铜支撑有力，铜测试下方缺口上沿支撑， | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 建议前期铜多单继续持有，部分可逢高止盈兑现，中长期我们对铜依旧看好。沪铜 | | | | 关注区间【78500，80500】 | | | | 特朗普关税施压，宏观情绪回落，基本面锌精矿加工费修复，国内锌库存小幅 | | 锌 | 震荡 | 累库，国内消费淡季，锌承压回落，长期看，锌供 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The resumption progress of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, has great uncertainty, and Thailand has banned the transit transportation of tin ore from Myanmar, restricting the import supply of tin ore. The Bisie mine in the Congo plans to resume production in stages, and currently, the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. On the smelting side, the shortage of raw materials and cost pressure in Yunnan's production area are intertwined; the waste recycling system in Jiangxi's production area is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level. On the demand side, after the rush to install photovoltaic installations, the operating rate of some manufacturers has decreased; the electronics industry has entered the off - season, and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong. Recently, the tin price has回调, the spot premium has been lowered to 400 yuan/ton, the trading is light, and most downstream enterprises are waiting and seeing the current price, with a slight increase in domestic inventory. However, overseas inventory continues to decline, the LME cancelled warrants increase, the premium rises, and the strong LME tin drives up the domestic price. Technically, there is a decline with reduced positions, breaking below the M10 support and returning to the previous range. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily, with a reference range of 260,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 263,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,730 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month tin is 33,770 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 35 US dollars. The closing price difference between the August - September contracts of Shanghai tin is - 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 28,262 lots, a decrease of 2,457 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 398 lots, an increase of 362 lots. The total inventory of LME tin is 2,110 tons, a decrease of 55 tons. The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,198 tons (weekly), an increase of 243 tons. The cancelled warrants of LME tin are 640 tons, a decrease of 25 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 6,868 tons, an increase of 61 tons. The SMM 1 tin spot price is 266,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 267,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 710 yuan. The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 3,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,230 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 22 US dollars/ton, an increase of 64 US dollars [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore concentrates is 12,100 tons (monthly), a decrease of 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 255,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,700 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 259,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,700 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, an increase of 143.24 tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 173,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,180 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strip) is 1.6014 million tons (monthly), an increase of 144,500 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, a decrease of 33,900 tons [3] 6. Industry News - US President Trump said that starting from July 4, the US government will issue notifications of new tariff rates to countries that have not reached trade agreements, with the tariff range from 10% to 70%, and plans to officially implement it on August 1. The upper limit of this tariff (70%) is much higher than the 50% announced in April. The data from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing shows that the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index in June was 49.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, rising month - on - month for two consecutive months. Although the index is still in the contraction range, the consecutive two - month slight increase reflects that the recovery strength of the global economy has increased [3]

美国白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬.米兰表示，随着美国总统特朗普达成贸易协议的最后期限临近， 一些与美国"真诚谈判"的国家可能会推迟征收关税。当被问及特朗普是否会延长最后期限时，米兰表示 这是有可能的，他预期那些本着诚意进行谈判、做出达成协议所需让步、但需要更多时间且尚未达成协 议的国家能够得到一个达成协议的日期，他拒绝说明哪些国家可能会推迟日期。米兰表示，他预计一些 正在做出让步的国家可能会看到他们的截止日期被推迟，反之，预计他们可能会面临更高关税。米兰表 示，特朗普将在本周晚些时候以及之后的一段时间内决定，这些国家是否会像他们已经"习惯的那样"， 采取必要措施进入美国市场。(央视新闻) ...

特朗普最初承诺在90天内达成90项贸易协议的计划明显受挫。美贸易顾问纳瓦罗此前预测，在4月暂停 互惠关税计划并允许三个月延期后，政府将在90天内获得90项协议。实际上，美国迄今仅达成三项协 议，且部分协议缺乏关键细节。 据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间3日表示，将于4日开始向贸易伙伴发函，设定单边关税税 率。特朗普后来表示，新的关税税率可能在10%到70%之间，信函将于周一发出，并于8月1日前付款。 随着7月9日关税大限逼近，全球市场面临关键一周。美财政部长贝森特改口表示，8月1日将成为贸易伙 伴的最后期限，而印度虽然接近达成迷你贸易协议，但在农业和乳制品领域划下红线。 特朗普政府计划在90天暂停期结束后，对数十个国家重新征收10%至70%的互惠关税。随着周三这一大 限到来，美国可能对数十个国家重新征收关税。 但贝森特媒体采访中表示，美国将向贸易伙伴发出通知函，要求在8月1日前达成协议，否则将回到4月2 日的关税水平。美国商务部长卢特尼克也表示，特朗普的国别关税将于8月1日生效，目前税率和协议由 总统制定。 据环球时报报道，印美两国正力争在7月9日"对等关税"暂缓期结束前敲定临时贸易协定。尽管双方加紧 ...

贝森特称未来72小时将异常忙碌 在特朗普表示将于周一通知大约12个国家他们对美出口将面临的新关税水平后，主要的美国贸易伙伴周 末纷纷加紧努力，力求达成贸易协议或争取额外时间。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周日在节目中说道"接下来的72小时我们会非常忙碌"，他指的是距离政府7 月9日截止日期所剩的时间。 特朗普在美国国庆假期周末对记者表示，他"签署了一些函件，将在周一寄出——初步大约12封"。他拒 绝透露涉及哪些国家，只说这些函件中包含"不同的金额、不同的关税水平以及各自不同的说明。" 贝森特表示，几项大型协议已接近达成，但如果收到函件的国家未能达成协议，从8月1日起，他们对美 出口将面临美国最严厉的关税——在4月2日公布的50多个经济体中，有些税率高达50%。特朗普官员数 周来一直表示，多项协议即将落地，但到目前为止，仅宣布了与英国的有限框架协议、与中国的框架以 及特朗普对与越南协议的简要概述。 特朗普和贝森特的最新表态表明，距离截止日期仅剩三天，谈判仍在持续，协议仍然难以最终敲定。贝 森特表示，华盛顿正对贸易伙伴施加最大压力，并且与欧盟的磋商已取得"非常好的进展"。欧盟是一个 27国组成的集团，约占美国货物贸 ...

美国财长贝森特：若8月1日前未达成协议，关税将恢复至4月份水平。 ...

美国财长贝森特：若未达成协议，特朗普将通知贸易伙伴；恢复至4月2日的关税水平。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普表示，美国正准备设定最高达70%的单边关税税率，该税率将于8 月1日生效，此举在推迟征税的同时向全球贸易谈判施压。欧盟将在周末与美国举行关键会谈，力争达 成临时贸易协议以避免更高额关税。 知情人士称，欧盟执行机构欧盟委员会官员周五向成员国透露，他们已接近与美国达成潜在协议的框 架，该框架将维持目前对多数欧洲进口商品10%的关税。欧盟官员上周在华盛顿举行了谈判，正赶在7 月9日前达成协议——特朗普此前威胁届时将欧盟进口商品关税提高至50%。目前谈判仍处于动态变化 中，协议细节可能调整，最终能否达成也未可知。 特朗普称美国准备通知多个贸易伙伴，进口关税将介于"60%至70%到10%和20%之间"。由于美国市场 因独立日休市，全球投资者陷入防御状态。 欧盟委员会发言人周五表示，欧盟希望与美国通过谈判解决问题，并在独立日前于华盛顿举行的最后一 轮谈判中，就原则性协议取得进展。该发言人称，在与欧盟成员国讨论贸易谈判状况后，委员会将在周 末与美国重新接触，讨论潜在协议的实质内容。"与此同时，我们也在为可能无法达成满意协议做准 备，欧盟已准备好针对美国的反制关税。" 特朗普表示，这些通知将 ...

Group 1 - The recent trade agreement between the US and Vietnam will increase tariffs on goods exported from Vietnam to the US from 10% to 20%, while goods from other countries transiting through Vietnam will face a 40% tariff [4][7] - The agreement is currently in a framework stage, with further negotiations on rules of origin and other topics expected [4][7] - Experts believe that Vietnam's advantage as an alternative manufacturing base will be diminished due to the increased tariffs [7][8] Group 2 - Companies like Lek Electric report that approximately 80% of their products exported to the US are produced in Vietnam and Thailand, with the remaining 20% from China [5] - Lek Electric faces a potential increase in tariffs on products exported from China, which could be as high as 55%, depending on future negotiations between the US and China [5] - Other companies are considering shifting their production to markets like Europe if tariffs on goods exported from Vietnam increase [5][6] Group 3 - The new tariff structure is expected to pressure US customers to share some of the tariff costs, impacting the cost structure for Vietnamese factories exporting to the US [6] - The agreement includes provisions for zero tariffs on US goods entering Vietnam and extends the suspension period for high tariffs [7] - Companies that have invested in Vietnam may need to increase local supply chain investments to achieve higher origin ratios for better tariff benefits, although this presents significant challenges [8]

泰国财长：泰国将根据美国的反馈调整关税提案。 ...