Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing a challenging trade-off between rising inflation and increasing unemployment, indicating a cautious approach to policy adjustments in the coming months [1][5]. Economic Conditions - Recent indicators suggest that economic activity continues to expand at a robust pace, despite fluctuations in net exports [3]. - The unemployment rate has stabilized at low levels, and the labor market remains strong, although inflation rates have been rising [3]. - Inflation has eased since its peak in 2022 but remains a concern, with risks of acceleration due to new trade barriers [3][4]. Inflation Concerns - Participants in the meeting expressed concerns that inflation could be more persistent than expected, with some companies potentially using the price environment to raise prices [3][4]. - There is a risk of upward pressure on prices, which could contribute to inflation [3][4]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market is currently viewed as "roughly balanced," with low layoffs, but some companies are beginning to limit or pause hiring due to increasing uncertainty [3][4]. - Officials have downplayed the labor market's role as a primary driver of inflation [4]. Financial Market Volatility - There has been increased volatility across asset classes, with unusual patterns observed, such as falling stock prices alongside rising long-term Treasury yields and a depreciating dollar [4]. - This divergence may indicate deeper shifts that could have long-term economic implications [4]. Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve may face difficult decisions if inflation proves to be more persistent while growth and employment prospects weaken [5]. - A cautious approach is deemed appropriate until the impacts of government policy changes on the economy become clearer [5]. Future Projections - The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for June 17-18, where new forecasts for inflation, employment, and economic growth will be presented [7]. - Current expectations suggest that the Fed will maintain policy rates in June and July but may consider rate cuts in September and December [7]. - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, a preferred inflation measure, is anticipated to remain stable, complicating the Fed's decision-making on interest rates [7].

与此同时，英伟达在美股盘后披露的财报也备受市场关注。其中显示，英伟达第一财季营收为441亿美元，同 比增长69%，高于分析师预期的432.9亿美元。受此影响，英伟达股价盘后直线拉升，一度大涨超6%。 美联储发布 北京时间5月29日凌晨，美联储官网发布了今年5月的货币政策会议的纪要。纪要显示，美联储决策者普遍认 为，经济面临的不确定性比之前更高，对待降息适合保持谨慎，等待特朗普政府关税等政策的影响更明朗，再 考虑行动。 纪要写道，美联储官员们认为，未来几个月他们可能面临"艰难的权衡"，即通胀和失业率双双上行的风险都有 所增加，而经济不确定性加剧证明谨慎的货币政策是适当的。 在本月稍早的会议上，美联储连续第三次将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%—4.5%不变。 美联储的会议纪要释放重磅信号。 今日凌晨，美联储在官网发布的5月会议纪要显示，美联储决策者认为美国经济前景的不确定性"异常高"，失 业率和通胀上升的风险都有所增加，目前保持谨慎的货币政策是适当的。 受这份偏"鹰派"的会议纪要影响，美股三大指数尾盘集体走弱，截至收盘，道指跌0.58%；纳指跌0.51%，标 普500指数跌0.56%。有分析指出，美联储决策 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that the impact of trade policies on economic activity is greater than previously expected [1] Economic Growth Projections - The staff's forecasts for real GDP growth in 2025 and 2026 have been revised downward compared to the predictions made in March [1] - The announced trade policies are expected to result in a more significant drag on actual economic activity than previously assumed [1] Productivity and Potential GDP - Trade policies are anticipated to lead to a slowdown in productivity growth, which will reduce potential GDP growth in the coming years [1] Output Gap and Labor Market - The output gap is expected to widen significantly during the forecast period due to earlier and larger-than-expected demand drag compared to supply responses [1] - The labor market is projected to weaken considerably, with the unemployment rate expected to exceed the staff's estimate of the natural rate by the end of this year and remain above it until 2027 [1]

美联储会议纪要：截至5月会议通胀和失业风险有所上升 金十数据5月29日讯，最新公布的美联储5月会议纪要显示，美联储工作人员在上次会议上承认，未来几 个月他们可能面临"艰难的权衡"，既面临通胀上升，又面临失业率上升。美联储官员对经济衰退风险增 加的预估支撑了这一前景。通胀和失业率同时上升将迫使委员们决定，是优先收紧货币政策来对抗通 胀，还是通过降息来支持经济增长和就业。随着经济适应特朗普政府提出的更高进口税，"几乎所有与 会者都表示，通胀可能比预期更持久"。美联储预计，由于关税的影响，今年的通胀率将"显著"上升， 而就业市场"预计将大幅走弱"，到今年年底，失业率将升至充分就业的长期预期水平以上，并将在两年 内保持这一水平。 ...

德国5月季调后失业人数及失业率将于十分钟后公布。 ...

Group 1 - The 39th OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries ministerial meeting is scheduled to take place, which may influence global oil supply and pricing dynamics [1] - The U.S. Vice President will deliver a speech at the "Bitcoin 2025" conference, potentially impacting cryptocurrency market sentiment [1] - The Federal Reserve's Williams will participate in a panel discussion at the Bank of Japan's financial research institute meeting, which could provide insights into U.S. monetary policy [1] Group 2 - Australia's April weighted CPI year-on-year data will be released, which is crucial for assessing inflation trends in the region [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement, impacting the New Zealand dollar and economic outlook [1] - The final GDP year-on-year figure for France's first quarter will be published, providing insights into the country's economic performance [1] Group 3 - Germany's adjusted unemployment figures for May will be released, including both the number of unemployed and the unemployment rate, which are key indicators of labor market health [1] - The Swiss ZEW investor confidence index for May will be announced, reflecting investor sentiment and expectations for the Swiss economy [1] - The Richmond Fed's manufacturing index for May will be published, offering insights into the manufacturing sector's performance in the U.S. [1] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its May monetary policy meeting, which may provide clues about future interest rate decisions [1] - The API crude oil inventory data for the week ending May 23 will be released, which is significant for understanding oil supply trends in the U.S. [1]

中国台湾4月失业率 3.36%，预期3.37%，前值3.36%。 ...

美联储穆萨莱姆：货币政策目前情况良好。如果通胀预期保持稳定，平衡应对通胀和失业率上升是可行 的。 ...

斯洛伐克4月失业率4.83%。 ...

Group 1 - The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Hong Kong increased from 3.2% in January-March 2025 to 3.4% in February-April 2025, while the underemployment rate rose from 1.1% to 1.3% during the same period [1][2] - The total employment decreased by approximately 15,600 from 3,692,700 in January-March 2025 to 3,677,100 in February-April 2025, and the total labor force also fell by about 9,000 from 3,815,500 to 3,806,500 [1][2] - The number of unemployed individuals (not seasonally adjusted) rose from 122,800 to 129,400, an increase of about 6,600, while the number of underemployed individuals increased from 42,700 to 47,600, an increase of approximately 4,900 [2] Group 2 - Various major economic sectors experienced an increase in unemployment rates, particularly in construction, accommodation services, catering services, and finance, while sectors like information and communications, insurance, and arts, entertainment, and recreation saw a decline [1] - The Secretary for Labour and Welfare, Sun Yuhan, noted that while some businesses are closing, many new stores are opening, indicating a shift in demand and consumption trends [2] - The number of registered companies in Hong Kong reached a historical high of 1.46 million by the end of last year, suggesting emerging demand and consumption trends are gradually taking shape [2]