Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that gold prices are on an upward trend, driven by resilient inflation and trade tensions, particularly with the potential for increased tariffs on Europe [4] - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile due to fluctuating tariffs, with a price center around $9,300 [5] - Aluminum prices are forecasted to rise due to strong domestic demand and inventory depletion [5] - Tungsten prices are anticipated to continue rising, supported by better-than-expected export recovery [6] - Rare earth prices are under pressure due to increased imports, but long-term investment opportunities are suggested as supply constraints may tighten [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 4695.15, with a weekly high of 5020.22 and a low of 3700.9 [1] Price Movements - LME copper increased by 0.62%, while aluminum decreased by 0.60%. Gold prices on COMEX rose by 1.98% [20] Inventory Changes - Global visible copper inventory decreased by 14,348 tons, and aluminum inventory decreased by 11,426 tons [26]

就在上周五，特朗普还表示，他"并不寻求与欧盟达成协议"，欧盟的关税税率定为50%，并将于6月1日生效。 此前，特朗普已于4月份对欧盟征收20%的关税，而这项关税本身也被推迟，其他所谓的互惠关税也同样被推 迟。与记者交谈几分钟后，特朗普在Truth Social 上发帖称"谈判将迅速开始"。 当天早些时候，冯德莱恩在X上发帖称，与特朗普进行了"良好的通话"。冯德莱恩称："欧盟和美国拥有世界 上最重要、最紧密的贸易关系。欧洲已准备好迅速果断地推进谈判。" 特朗普特别关注"非货币贸易壁垒"，以及与美国存在巨大贸易逆差的国家或贸易集团。根据美国商务部的数 据，去年美国对欧盟的贸易逆差为2360亿美元。 特朗普周日还表示，他"倾向于同意"财政部长贝森特最近关于不需要将纺织品制造业迁回美国的言论。"我们 不想生产运动鞋和T恤……我们想生产军事装备。"特朗普说："我们想做大事。我们想用电脑做'人工智能'。" 特朗普又变了！ 今天早上，消息传来，美国总统特朗普表示，他已同意将对欧盟进口产品征收50%的关税推迟至7月9日。欧盟 委员会主席冯德莱恩表示，与特朗普进行了愉快的通话，欧盟需在7月9日前（"特朗普关税"暂停到期）达成一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the ongoing US-China tariff war on trade dynamics, highlighting the resilience of Chinese exporters and the complexities of international trade negotiations amid rising tariffs and geopolitical tensions [2][6][7]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Chinese Exporters - Chinese exporters, such as Dongyi Yangshan Technology and Shuangtong Straw Company, are adapting to the fluctuating tariff environment, with some clients resuming orders despite high tariffs [3][10][11]. - The article notes that the average effective tariff rate for US imports from China is around 41%, while China's effective tariff rate on US imports is approximately 28% [5][6]. - Despite the high tariffs, the demand for Chinese products remains strong, as US consumers are likely to absorb some of the increased costs [11][14]. Group 2: Trade Dynamics and Market Adjustments - The article highlights a significant increase in container shipping bookings from China to the US, with a reported surge of nearly 300% following the announcement of tariff reductions [4][5]. - Companies are finding ways to mitigate tariff impacts, such as using DDP (Delivered Duty Paid) shipping methods, which can reduce the cost burden of tariffs [12]. - The ongoing tariff situation has led to a re-evaluation of supply chains, with some companies considering diversifying their markets beyond the US [16][18]. Group 3: Future Trade Negotiations and Economic Implications - The article emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding future tariff negotiations, with potential for tariffs to rise again after the 90-day negotiation window [6][22]. - Experts suggest that the US-China trade conflict reflects deeper structural issues in global trade and economic governance, with calls for both nations to work collaboratively to address these challenges [7][35]. - The article warns that a prolonged trade conflict could lead to a "hard decoupling" of the US and Chinese economies, which would have significant implications for global trade [17][26].

斯蒂芬•米兰认为美元储备地位、美元高估和贸易逆差面临取舍，高估的美元让制造业 竞争力下降，但也维系"美元霸权"。如何改革逆差过大和制造业衰落？ 文丨陈稻田 特朗普的经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬•米兰（Stephen Miran）在经济学博士毕业后立刻进入 华尔街做外汇交易，在今年2月份参议院的任职听证会上，他表示这段市场考验让他不再"书 生气"，而是开始"接地气"。在解释为什么他可以胜任总统经济顾问一职时，米兰表示他的普 通家庭背景让他会更关注普通人；而导师费尔德斯坦（曾经是里根的经济顾问）和米兰讨论 论文的时候总是要求说："假想我是参议员，你说的东西要让我能听懂"，米兰表示这个训练 也让他做好了和职业政治家交流的准备。2024年11月大选之前不久，还在一家投资基金担任 策略师的米兰写下了一篇策论文章，讨论特朗普胜选后可能以及应该的各种经济策略、取 舍、以及风险考量，其中详细讨论了名为"海湖庄园协议"的新国际金融体系。很自然，在他 获得重用后"海湖庄园协议"在美国内外都获得了相当的关注。 阅读更多内容请点击下方"阅读原文" （本文由FT中文网提供） 编者荐语： 日本经济新闻社与金融时报2015年11月合并为同一家 ...

【资讯导读】 ·美联储官员呼吁保持耐心：在决策前应评估更多数据 ·欧洲央行警告美国资产疑虑引发连锁反应 ·英国4月CPI同比上涨3.5% ·日本4月出现贸易逆差 ·印尼央行年内第二次降息 ·美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨4.90个基点报4.019%，3年期美债收益率涨6.77个基点报 4.019%，5年期美债收益率涨9.23个基点报4.164%，10年期美债收益率涨11.56个基点报4.605%，30年期 美债收益率涨12.17个基点报5.096%。 ·欧洲央行在半年度金融稳定报告中警告称，特朗普推出关税政策后，投资者开始远离美元和美债等传 统避险资产，这可能预示着一种"根本性制度变革"的发生。报告强调，即使在特朗普放弃部分关税威胁 后，资产估值仍然过高。 ·欧洲央行副行长金多斯表示，受益于欧元走强和能源成本下降，欧洲央行距离实现2%通胀目标已不 远。目前市场预计欧洲央行将在6月份再次降息，并可能考虑进一步放松货币政策。 ·英国国家统计局公布数据显示，英国4月CPI同比上涨3.5%，为2024年1月以来最高水平，超出市场预 期；环比升1.2%，为2023年4月以来最大升幅。交易员削减对英国央行进一步降 ...

日本财务大臣加藤胜信：关税并非纠正贸易逆差背后宏观经济失衡的适当手段。 ...

日本财务大臣加藤胜信：部分国家存在不可持续的宏观经济失衡，导致贸易逆差。 ...

美国前财长努钦：比起贸易逆差，美国预算赤字其实更令人担忧。 ...

Core Viewpoint - A coalition of 12 states is seeking to halt President Trump's "Day of Liberation" tariffs, arguing that his declaration of a national emergency to impose tariffs on imports is an overreach of power [1][2]. Group 1: Legal Challenges - The lawsuit, filed by Democratic attorneys general from New York, Illinois, Oregon, and nine other states, claims that Trump is attempting to gain a "blank check" to regulate trade at will [1]. - The states argue that Trump's interpretation of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) is flawed, as the law is intended to address "unusual and extraordinary threats" from abroad [1]. - This lawsuit is one of at least seven legal challenges against Trump's tariff policy, with California also filing a separate challenge in federal court [4]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Oregon's Attorney General Dan Rayfield stated that the tariffs are increasing costs for families and small businesses in the state, with ordinary households expected to spend an additional $3,800 annually [2]. - The Department of Justice argues that the states' claims are based on "speculative economic losses" rather than specific damages caused by the tariffs [2]. Group 3: Government Response - The Department of Justice has expressed its intention to vigorously defend Trump's agenda against unfair trade practices in court [3]. - Following the imposition of a 10% tariff on all imports in April, Trump had previously raised tariffs on Mexico and Canada in February, and subsequently suspended many tariffs targeting specific countries [3]. Group 4: Judicial Process - The International Trade Court, which handles disputes related to international trade and customs law, will hear the case, with decisions subject to appeal in the Federal Circuit Court and ultimately the Supreme Court [4].

Group 1 - Japan's April exports increased by 2% year-on-year, marking the second consecutive month of slowdown and the lowest growth rate since October of the previous year [1] - Imports in Japan shrank by 2.2% year-on-year, which was less than the expected decline of 4.5% [1] - Japan's trade deficit narrowed to 115.8 billion yen (approximately 803.1 million USD), lower than the expected 227.1 billion yen, with March's trade deficit recorded at 559.4 billion yen [1] Group 2 - Japan's manufacturing sector is under pressure due to high tariffs imposed by the U.S., particularly a 25% tariff on automotive, steel, and aluminum exports [2] - In 2024, automobiles are projected to account for 28.3% of Japan's total exports to the U.S., making it the largest export category [2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs poses a continuous risk to Japan's export-driven economy, potentially leading to further profit pressures for export-oriented companies [2]