Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has restarted its easing cycle, but there are significant divisions among officials regarding the necessity of further rate cuts, with some advocating for a more aggressive approach while others emphasize the importance of controlling inflation [3][4][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points recently, but there is a notable split among officials about the need for additional cuts, with some projecting two more cuts by the end of 2025 [3][4]. - Stephen Miran, a newly appointed member of the Federal Reserve Board, argues for substantial rate cuts to prevent harm to the labor market, suggesting a target federal funds rate around 2.5%, nearly 2 percentage points lower than the current rate [3]. - Some officials, like Alberto Musalem and Raphael Bostic, express caution regarding further rate cuts, emphasizing the need to prioritize inflation control despite rising unemployment risks [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Employment - The upcoming employment report for September is critical, with the unemployment rate currently at a relatively low 4.3%, but job creation has slowed [6]. - The labor market's stability is attributed to stagnant job-seeking numbers, influenced by tightened immigration policies [6]. - Policymakers are monitoring various indicators, including unemployment rates among minorities and job prospects for young workers and graduates, to gauge economic trends [6]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - The Federal Reserve's inflation target is set at 2%, but projections indicate that inflation may remain above this target through 2025, with core PCE inflation expected to rise to 3.1% by year-end [8]. - Concerns about inflation are partly linked to the impact of tariffs, which are believed to have a temporary effect on price levels, with estimates suggesting tariffs contribute approximately 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to core PCE inflation [9]. - The Fed's view is that the inflationary impact of tariffs will eventually diminish as the costs are absorbed by businesses rather than fully passed on to consumers [9].

从当前到10月28日至29日的货币政策会议期间，可供官员评估经济状况的新增数据相对有限，就业 市场面临的风险程度可能将再次决定是否会降息25个基点。不过，对通胀走向的担忧，可能成为鲍 威尔如何平衡美联储内部分歧的关键。 降息前景分歧显著 自去年12月以后，美联储终于再次按下了降息键。然而，美联储官员就是否有必要进一步降息存在 明显分歧。尽管利率中值预期显示，到2025年底前还将再降息两次（每次25个基点），但利率点阵 图显示有7位政策制定者认为不需要再实施降息。 上周二加入美联储理事会并投出唯一反对票的白宫经济顾问委员会主席米兰（Stephen Miran）周一 发表讲话称，有必要大幅降息，以避免劳动力市场遭受不必要的损害。他认为，今年联邦经济政策的 2025.09. 23 本文字数：2402，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 在上周重启宽松周期后， 本周包括美联储主席鲍威尔在内的超过10位联储官员将发表公开讲话。 调整已显著压低了理论上的 "中性利率"。 "我认为适当的联邦基金利率应在 2.5%左右，比当前政策 利率低近2个百分点。" 周 一 两 位 地 方 联 储 官 员 表 达 了 对 继 ...

在上周重启宽松周期后，本周包括美联储主席鲍威尔在内的超过10位联储官员将发表公开讲话。 从当前到10月28日至29日的货币政策会议期间，可供官员评估经济状况的新增数据相对有限，就业市场 面临的风险程度可能将再次决定是否会降息25个基点。不过，对通胀走向的担忧，可能成为鲍威尔如何 平衡美联储内部分歧的关键。 今年FOMC票委穆萨勒姆在华盛顿布鲁金斯学会发表讲话时表示："上周我支持降息，这是一项预防性 举措，旨在维护充分就业的劳动力市场，防止其进一步疲软。然而，我认为在政策不变得过度宽松的前 提下，进一步降息的空间有限，我们应谨慎行事。"他表示，通胀率持续高于美联储目标的风险依然存 在，这意味着基准利率需要维持在足够高的水平，以抵消物价上涨的风险。 "货币政策应继续抑制通胀持续高于目标的态势，" 穆萨勒姆强调，"尽管失业率可能面临风险，但除非 这些风险开始显现，否则过度强调就业市场…… 可能弊大于利。" 博斯蒂克在接受媒体采访时表示，鉴于当前通胀率仍比美联储目标高出约1个百分点，上周的降息可能 是他认为今年唯一需要实施的一次降息。"我对长期居高不下的通胀感到担忧。对我而言，继续传递通 胀问题的重要性至关重要。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in maintaining its dual mandate of price stability and full employment, with concerns about rising inflation and its persistence [1] Group 1: Inflation Concerns - The inflation rate in the U.S. may continue to rise, raising worries about both the level and duration of inflation [1] - The focus on inflation is described as being laser-like, indicating a strong commitment to addressing this issue [1] Group 2: Employment and Labor Market - The current unemployment rate of 4.3% is considered healthy, suggesting a balanced supply-demand relationship in the labor market [1] - The employment situation is close to the target, with expectations that the unemployment rate will continue to rise slightly [1]

Core Points - Taiwan's unemployment rate in August reached 3.45%, the highest in nearly a year, marking a 0.05 percentage point increase from July [1] - The number of unemployed individuals in Taiwan rose to 415,000, reflecting a monthly increase of 1.52% [1] - The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was reported at 3.35% [1] Labor Market Insights - The highest unemployment rate was observed among individuals aged 20 to 24, at 12.08%, attributed to first-time job seekers and recent graduates entering the job market [1] - The number of underemployed individuals in Taiwan reached 121,000, the highest record for the year, indicating economic factors affecting employment levels [1] - The increase in underemployment is linked to the rise in individuals on unpaid leave, influenced by the impact of increased tariffs from the U.S. on Taiwan's labor market [1]

巴西CNN网站9月16日消息，巴西地理与统计研究所（IBGE）数据显示，今年5-7月巴西失业率降 至5.6%，为2012年有记录以来的最低水平。同期，劳动力人口增加至1.02亿，其中正式就业人口达3910 万，均创历史新高；非劳动人口为6560万人保持相对稳定，失业人口降至270万人，较上季度下降 11%。 （原标题：巴西失业率降至2012年以来最低水平） ...

9月18日凌晨两点，美联储又扔出一颗重磅炸弹：宣布降息25个基点！ 这已经是今年以来的第N次降息，累计幅度高达125个基点！ 全球市场都炸开了锅，美股狂飙、黄金暴涨、比特币突破天际…… 但问题来了，这波降息潮是救经济？还是给我们埋下更大的雷？ 我们普通人的钱袋子会不会被通胀吞噬？ 这次降息是意料之中的事情，之前就有消息传出，美联储这次果然又没让大家失望，凌晨准时官宣降息25个基点，直接把利率干到4.00%-4.25%区间！ 要知道，这已经是本轮降息周期的第5次操作，累计降息幅度高达125个基点，相当于把利率砍掉整整四分之一！ 更刺激的是，摩根士丹利、高盛等顶级投行纷纷预测，美联储今年还要继续降息，甚至可能上演"四连降"的疯狂戏码！ 欧洲央行今年已降息8次，瑞士央行甚至玩出"负利率"骚操作，日本央行嘴上喊加息实则偷偷放水！ 全球摆烂大赛的规则很简单：谁不降息，谁的货币就升值，出口企业直接凉凉！ 专家锐评："现在比的是谁更烂，而不是谁更好——这就是现代货币战争的 真相！" 这下全球央行更是集体躺平，欧洲央行已经降息8次，累计降息235个基点，瑞士、加拿大、英国等也跟着疯狂放水！ 这波操作，简直就像全球央行开了一 ...

Market Performance - On September 19, US stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.38%, Nasdaq up 0.72%, and S&P 500 up 0.49% [1] - For the week, S&P 500 rose 1.22%, Nasdaq increased by 2.21%, and Dow Jones gained 1.05% [1] Major Tech Stocks - Apple shares rose to $245.50, an increase of 3.20%, bringing its market capitalization to $3.6 trillion, with a one-day increase of $113.1 billion (approximately ¥804.8 billion) [2] - Tesla shares increased by 2.21%, reaching a market value of $1.41 trillion [4] - Oracle saw a rise of over 4%, while Intel shares fell by 3% [6] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.25%, with Pinduoduo down over 2%, Li Auto and iQIYI down over 1%, while Tiger Brokers and Futu Holdings rose over 2%, and Xpeng Motors increased by over 1% [7] Commodity Prices - International oil prices fell on September 19, with light crude oil futures for October down by $0.89 to $62.68 per barrel (a decline of 1.4%), and Brent crude for November down by $0.76 to $66.68 per barrel (a decline of 1.13%) [8] - Spot gold closed at $3,684.93 per ounce, while New York gold was at $3,719.42 per ounce [8] Employment Data - The US unemployment rate for August was reported at 4.3%, with three states experiencing an increase, while 45 states and the District of Columbia remained stable, and two states saw a decrease [8] Federal Reserve Insights - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari indicated that there may be two more rate cuts this year, citing risks of a deteriorating labor market outweighing inflation concerns [9] - Kashkari raised the estimate for neutral interest rates to 3.1% and warned that political interference could undermine the Fed's independence [9] - He suggested that inflation is likely to remain close to current levels, above the Fed's 2% target, rather than accelerating significantly, allowing for potential rate cuts [9]

（文章来源：央视新闻） 人民财讯9月19日电，当地时间9月19日，美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国8月份的全国失业率为 4.3%。 8月份美国有3个州的失业率上升，45个州和哥伦比亚特区的失业率持稳，2个州的失业率下降。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari supports the recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and believes that similar cuts in the last two meetings of the year would be appropriate [2] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Fed decided to lower the policy interest rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25% following a significant drop in monthly job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% [2][3] - Kashkari initially thought only two rate cuts of 25 basis points were necessary for the year but changed his view due to declining job creation [2] - Other Fed officials have differing opinions, with some suggesting only one more cut or no cuts at all, indicating a more cautious stance on inflation [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Kashkari expressed concerns about the risk of a sharp rise in unemployment, which justifies the need for the Fed to take action to support the labor market [2] - He noted that the risk of tariffs causing a significant rise in inflation is low unless there are substantial increases in tariff rates or other supply-side shocks [2] - Kashkari believes the neutral interest rate has risen to 3.1%, suggesting that the Fed's policy is not as tight as previously thought [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Kashkari indicated that if the labor market weakens more rapidly than expected, the Fed may need to cut rates more quickly [3] - He also mentioned that if the labor market proves resilient or inflation unexpectedly rises, the Fed should be prepared to pause or maintain the current policy rate [3]