Core Viewpoint - The U.S. textile and apparel industry is under significant pressure due to supply chain adjustments and uncertainty surrounding new tariffs implemented by the Trump administration, particularly the "reciprocal tariffs" [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The introduction of new tariffs has led to increased costs for suppliers, which are expected to result in higher prices for consumers [2]. - Retailers and importers are tracking rising costs and expenditures, which have become shockingly high due to the current tariff policies [2]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs complicates procurement decisions for companies, making it difficult to manage supply chains effectively [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain Challenges - The textile and apparel industry is characterized by its high degree of globalization, and significant tariff increases pose a direct threat to its operations [2]. - Even when U.S. manufacturers are found, the costs are often double compared to suppliers from other countries, making it challenging to shift production domestically [2]. - The inability to quickly establish new factories means that adjustments to supply chains will not yield immediate results [1].

Group 1 - The week features significant events and data releases, including non-farm payrolls, PCE, and the Federal Reserve's decision [1][2] - Key financial reports are scheduled from major companies such as Boeing, Merck, Visa, Starbucks, HSBC, UBS, Meta, and Microsoft [2][3] - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" in the U.S. is set to begin, with a 50% import tariff on copper taking effect [3] Group 2 - Economic data releases include various indices and rates from the U.S., UK, Eurozone, and China, which will provide insights into economic performance [1][2][3] - The Canadian central bank's interest rate decision is anticipated, alongside the Federal Reserve's rate decision and economic outlook [2][3] - The week will conclude with the release of manufacturing PMIs and consumer confidence indices, which are critical for assessing economic health [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, announced that the deadline for imposing tariffs on August 1 will not be extended, indicating an intensifying trade negotiation phase between the U.S. and the EU [1] Group 1: U.S.-EU Trade Negotiations - The core objective of the negotiations is to encourage the EU to open its markets to U.S. exports, with the EU seeking a deal contingent on offering favorable conditions to avoid a 30% tariff threat from the U.S. [3] - The U.S. has already imposed tariffs on over 70% of EU exports, with steel and aluminum tariffs at 50%, automotive parts at 25%, and other goods generally at 10% [3] - A key meeting between EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and President Trump is scheduled, which is seen as a critical juncture in the tariff negotiations [3] Group 2: EU's Countermeasures - The EU plans to impose tariffs on nearly €100 billion worth of U.S. goods if negotiations fail, merging previous lists targeting €21 billion and an additional €72 billion in U.S. products [4] - Affected U.S. products include Boeing aircraft, automobiles, bourbon whiskey, motorcycles, jeans, tobacco, yachts, and diamonds, with tariffs set to match those threatened by the U.S. [4] - The EU's stance is becoming increasingly firm, with member states like Germany supporting the use of retaliatory measures [4] Group 3: Negotiation Challenges - The initial deadline for the "reciprocal tariffs" set by Trump was July 9, later extended to August 1, with limited agreements reached with a few countries [5] - Trump indicated that most agreements are not bilateral free trade agreements but unilateral letters from the U.S., with tariff rates ranging from 10% to 15% [5] - The European Central Bank decided to maintain key interest rates, citing uncertainty in the economic outlook primarily due to the unclear prospects of U.S.-EU trade negotiations [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic economy in the first half of the year remained resilient, with China's H1 GDP growing by 5.3% year - on - year, higher than the annual target of 5%. Fiscal efforts and "rush to export" supported the economic data, but the urgency for policies decreased. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July for possible intensified pro - growth policies [1]. - Since July, relevant departments have emphasized the governance of disorderly low - price competition among enterprises. Policies for "anti - involution" in industries such as steel, photovoltaic, lithium battery, and new - energy vehicles are expected to heat up, and some commodity prices have rebounded. Ten key industries' pro - growth plans are to be introduced [2]. - Trump signed the "Great Beautiful" tax and spending bill, and the US has entered a stage of "easy to loosen, hard to tighten" policies. The second - stage of reciprocal tariffs has begun, which may drag down commodities affected by external demand [3]. - Currently, the fundamentals of commodities are still weak, and caution should be exercised regarding the implementation of policy expectations. The volatility of commodity prices may remain high. For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to go long on industrial products on dips [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's economic data in the first half of the year was supported by fiscal efforts and "rush to export." In June, exports were strong, while the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales slowed down. Infrastructure and manufacturing investments declined, and the risk of the real - estate chain being dragged down by weak property sales still exists [1]. - Since July, relevant departments have emphasized the governance of disorderly low - price competition. Policies for "anti - involution" in multiple industries are expected to heat up, and some commodity prices have recovered. Ten key industries' pro - growth plans are to be introduced, and a survey of old petrochemical equipment is underway [2]. - Trump signed the bill, and the US has entered a new policy stage. The second - stage of reciprocal tariffs has started, and multiple countries are involved in tariff negotiations. The current tariffs are in a "stagnant" stage, which may impact commodities affected by external demand [3]. - Different commodity sectors have different characteristics. The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors; the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation expectations; the "anti - involution" space of some chemical products is worthy of attention; OPEC+ is accelerating production increases; and the short - term volatility of agricultural products is relatively limited [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on industrial products on dips [5] To - do News - China - EU leaders held the 25th meeting, aiming to deepen bilateral relations. The EU passed a measure to impose counter - tariffs on US products worth 93 billion euros [6]. - South Korea plans to invest at least $100 billion in the US. The preliminary value of the eurozone's July composite PMI was 51, higher than expected [6]. - China and the US will hold economic and trade talks in Sweden from July 27th to 30th. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell [6]. - The US reached trade agreements with multiple countries, including Indonesia and Japan. Thailand is close to reaching an agreement with the US, and the new tariff rate may drop to about 20% [6]. - The 7 - month LPR quote remained stable. The EU and the US may reach a trade agreement this weekend. The pound and the euro had certain fluctuations [6]. - China has issued the third batch of 69 billion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds to support the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, and the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan will be issued in October [6]. Macroeconomic - The US economic data shows that GDP growth, manufacturing and service PMIs, employment, inflation, consumption, fiscal revenue and expenditure, and net exports have different trends and fluctuations [8]. - The European economic data shows that GDP growth, industrial confidence, investment, employment, consumption, inflation, trade, credit, and fiscal surplus have their own characteristics and changes [9]. - The Chinese economic data shows that GDP growth, net exports, investment, consumption, inflation, finance, and fiscal revenue and expenditure have different performance and trends [10].

特朗普25日在离开白宫前往苏格兰之前对记者说："我想说，我们有50%的机会——也许比这个少—— 但有50%的机会与欧盟达成协议。" （原标题：突然全线拉升！特朗普前往英国，将与欧盟商谈关税！） 7月26日，加密货币全线拉升，比特币涨超2%突破118000美元，以太坊涨破3700美元。 过去的24小时，全球共有超7.7万人爆仓。 消息面上，据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普25日动身前往英国苏格兰地区，将在5天的行程期间为一家 高尔夫球场剪彩，与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩商谈关税事宜，并将会见英国首相斯塔默。 4月宣布设定"对等关税"谈判窗口期时，白宫宣称可以"在90天内达成90份协议"。然而，已被延长一次 的谈判窗口期即将于8月1日结束，美方眼下宣称达成的贸易协议仅有5份。特朗普25日说，他有信心在8 月1日前与大部分国家达成协议。此外，他还称将在未来一周广发信函，"敲定"关税协议。 多名欧盟外交官向媒体透露，欧盟和美国正在接近达成协议，美国可能将对欧盟商品征收15%的关税 ——与日本和美国本周谈成的关税税率相同，关键行业可能获得豁免。白宫警告说，目前任何关于协议 的讨论都只是推测性的。 7月初，特朗普先后致信20多个 ...

冯德莱恩25日在社交媒体上写道："在与美国总统进行了良好的通话后，我们同意周日在苏格兰会面， 讨论跨大西洋贸易关系，以及我们如何保持这种关系的强大。" 新华财经北京7月26日电美国总统特朗普25日动身前往英国苏格兰地区，将在5天的行程期间为一家高尔 夫球场剪彩，与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩商谈关税事宜，并将会见英国首相斯塔默。 4月宣布设定"对等关税"谈判窗口期时，白宫宣称可以"在90天内达成90份协议"。然而，已被延长一次 的谈判窗口期即将于8月1日结束，美方眼下宣称达成的贸易协议仅有5份。特朗普25日说，他有信心在8 月1日前与大部分国家达成协议。此外，他还称将在未来一周广发信函，"敲定"关税协议。 50%几率与欧盟达成协议 特朗普25日在离开白宫前往苏格兰之前对记者说："我想说，我们有50%的机会——也许比这个少—— 但有50%的机会与欧盟达成协议。" 自7月9日以来，美国仅宣布与日本、菲律宾和印度尼西亚达成贸易协议。 25日，谈到与邻国加拿大的贸易谈判时，特朗普说，美方"运气不太好"，双方可能无法通过磋商达成贸 易协议。 特朗普本月10日宣布，美国将自8月1日起对从加拿大输入美国的商品加征35%关税，且该 ...

Group 1 - The EU is close to reaching an agreement with the US on a 15% tariff on European products exported to the US, with a potential implementation date of August 7 if negotiations fail [1][2][4] - The EU has prepared countermeasures, including a proposed €93 billion in tariffs on US products, which could reach up to 30% if negotiations do not yield satisfactory results [4][5] - The negotiations are influenced by the US's previous agreements with Japan and the need for President Trump to demonstrate successful outcomes in trade discussions [1][3] Group 2 - The proposed 15% tariff may apply to various sectors, including automobiles and pharmaceuticals, and would not stack on existing tariffs [2][3] - The EU's internal discussions indicate a willingness to accept the 15% tariff as a means to maintain the status quo, potentially reducing the current 27.5% tariff on cars [2][3] - The EU is also considering the activation of the "anti-coercion tool" as a response to US tariffs, reflecting a strong stance among member states [5][6] Group 3 - The deadline for reaching an agreement is approaching, with many unresolved issues remaining, particularly concerning Canada and Mexico, which face significant tariffs if no agreement is reached [6][7] - The cancellation of the US-South Korea "2+2" economic talks raises concerns about the likelihood of reaching a tariff agreement with South Korea before the deadline [7] - Analysts suggest that the US's fluctuating negotiation strategy has created significant uncertainty in global trade [7]

特朗普政府拟发紧急状态声明 为向巴西征税提供法律依据 （IEEPA）为基础对部分国家实施"对等关税"，理由是这些国家对美存在"大而持续的贸易顺差"。截至 目前，所有遭征10%以上关税的国家均对美有货物顺差，唯一的例外便是巴西。 金十数据7月25日讯，据知情人士透露，特朗普政府正准备发布一项新的紧急状态声明，为对巴西加征 关税提供法律依据。此举意在为特朗普先前威胁的对巴西商品征收高达50%的关税铺路。知情人士称， 美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）本周在与国会幕僚的会谈中，承认正在筹备一份单独的紧急声明。不同 于其他贸易顺差国，巴西目前对美货物贸易为逆差。此前特朗普以《国际紧急经济权力法案》 ...

Global Market Strategy - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the U.S. is implementing a "reciprocal tariff" mechanism, with tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on various countries' goods, leading to significant market volatility and adjustments in policy timelines [1][2][3] - The U.S. has postponed the implementation of these tariffs from July 9 to August 1, allowing for further negotiations with multiple countries [1][2] U.S.-Japan Agreement - The U.S. and Japan have reached a "reciprocal tariff" agreement, reducing tariffs to 15% in exchange for a commitment of $550 billion in investments from Japan [2][4] - This agreement marks a significant bilateral trade model, suggesting that similar concessions may be required from other countries to receive the same tariff rate [2][4] U.S.-EU Negotiations - U.S.-EU negotiations are in advanced stages, with a potential 30% tariff threat still looming [3][5] - The U.S. has sent letters to the EU, indicating a push for a 15% baseline tariff, while the EU's automotive sector faces significant pressure due to its dual role as both a major importer and exporter of vehicles to the U.S. [5][15] Tariff Structure - The report outlines a tiered tariff structure based on trade relationships, with three main levels: 1. Countries with trade deficits and small allies (approx. 10% tariff) 2. Surplus countries with strategic value (initial tariff range of 15%-35%) 3. Low-income surplus countries with high-risk of transshipment (initial tariff range of 35%-40%) [8][11][13] - The EU is identified as facing unique challenges due to its complex trade relationship with the U.S., particularly in the automotive and steel sectors [15][27] China and Other Special Cases - China remains a focal point in the tariff discussions, with ongoing negotiations centered around non-tariff barriers and a 90-day freeze on new tariffs until August 12 [21][26] - Other countries like Mexico and Canada are under pressure due to their integration in the USMCA framework, with potential tariffs of 30% and 35% respectively if agreements are not reached by the deadline [29][28] Market Reactions - The market's response to the tariff announcements has been less severe than anticipated, with investors having already priced in extreme scenarios [32][41] - The report suggests that the market is adapting to a pattern of negotiation where initial threats are followed by adjustments, leading to a more stable outlook for key economies [36][39]

最近，美国总统特朗普宣布与日本、菲律宾和印尼达成的贸易协议引起了广泛关注。尤其对于菲律宾来说，这项协议中的一些细节让他们感到不满。尽管菲 律宾总统马科斯亲自访问华盛顿，与特朗普进行了面对面的交流，试图为菲律宾争取更有利的条件，但菲律宾的关税税率依然比日本高出4个百分点。这种 现象令菲律宾政府和民众感到沮丧，同时也导致了对特朗普是否会作出调整的渴望。 菲律宾驻美国大使罗穆亚尔德斯对此发表了看法，他表示菲律宾计划在8月1日之前继续争取将美国对菲律宾的关税从19%降低至15%。他认为，关税税率还 有进一步下降的空间，时间也非常充裕，因此菲律宾可以与美国进行充分的谈判。然而，这种期望似乎有些不切实际。毕竟，特朗普的商人背景以及他在现 实利益面前的立场，让人对他会做出让步的可能性持怀疑态度。除非菲律宾能够如中国般展现出强大的经济实力，以使特朗普政府感到压迫，否则要想改变 目前的税率几乎不可能。 菲律宾并不具备与中国相媲美的强大经济实力，因此罗穆亚尔德斯希望与美国讨论进一步降低税率的做法，有些显得孤芳自赏。他真正背后的意图或许是为 马科斯政府的表现开脱，以免在国内遭到民众的指责和攻击。可以看到，马科斯为了争取低税率，在特 ...