Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the potential impact of proposed tariffs by the Trump administration on inflation and economic stability, as articulated by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell during a Senate hearing [2] - Powell indicated that while tariffs might cause a one-time increase in prices, the long-term inflation risks should not be overlooked, emphasizing the need for the Federal Reserve to adopt a cautious approach to maintain price stability and economic health [2] - The actual impact of tariffs on prices could exceed expectations, depending on the scale, implementation, and market reactions, suggesting that the Federal Reserve must manage these risks carefully [2] Group 2 - In the gold market, prices showed narrow fluctuations, with the current price at $3331.27 per ounce, reflecting a slight decline of 0.02% [1] - The gold price opened at $3332.09 per ounce, reaching a high of $3339.76 and a low of $3328.99 during the trading session [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is likely to face resistance below $3342.00 and support above $3311.00, with potential targets for downward movement set between $3316.00 and $3301.00 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Collins suggests that tariffs may lead to increased inflation, reduced economic growth, and lower employment levels [1] Group 1 - Tariffs are likely to push inflation higher, impacting consumer prices and overall economic stability [1] - The potential economic slowdown due to tariffs could result in decreased job opportunities and lower employment rates [1] - Collins emphasizes the negative implications of tariffs on the broader economy, highlighting the interconnectedness of trade policies and economic performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's path for interest rate cuts has become uncertain following recent statements from officials, leading to significant changes in market expectations for future rate cuts [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Expectations - Morgan Stanley predicts the Federal Reserve will implement seven rate cuts by July 2026, with the final rate expected to be between 2.5% and 2.75% [2]. - The swap market has increased the probability of a July rate cut from nearly 0% to 40%, with the total expected cuts for the remaining four meetings of the year rising from 45 basis points to 60 basis points [3]. - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials, including Waller and Bowman, suggest a potential rate cut as early as July [7][26]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements within the Federal Reserve - Deutsche Bank reports that internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve have reached a ten-year high, primarily due to differing views on balancing inflation control and economic growth [4][11]. - The June dot plot indicates a significant polarization in predictions for the federal funds rate in 2025, with a 50 basis point gap between the most common and second most common forecasts, the highest in a decade [12]. - The report suggests that the main issue facing the Federal Reserve is not "historical uncertainty," but rather "historical division" among officials [14]. Group 3: Economic Impact of Tariffs - Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns that rising tariffs could impact U.S. consumer prices, with Powell indicating that data from June and July will reveal the tariffs' effects on inflation [8]. - Bank of America economists warn that if the labor market remains stable, tariffs could lead to a resurgence in inflation, potentially preventing rate cuts in 2025 [9][10]. - The Kansas City Fed President Schmid emphasized the need for more time to assess the impact of tariffs on prices and economic growth before making further rate decisions [19][25].

自新冠疫情以来，面对飙升的通胀，全球主要央行纷纷加息，现在，它们都已经开始降息，但日本央行 一直是个"异类"。 尽管日本的整体和核心通胀率自2022年4月以来一直高于其2%的目标，且整体通胀率在今年1月达到了 4%的两年高点，但日本央行却始终按兵不动，所谓的核心通胀自2022年10月以来也一直高于目标。 自2024年3月放弃负利率政策以来的14个月里，日本央行仅加息了60个基点。在最近的6月政策会议上， 它将政策利率维持在0.5%，并表示"基础CPI通胀可能保持疲软，主要原因是经济减速。" 美联储于2022年3月进行了自2018年以来的首次加息，同年除日本央行外的所有主要央行都提高了利 率。 在日本，通胀的主要驱动力是食品价格，特别是大米价格。该国的大米价格在2024年下半年急剧上涨， 并在2025年上半年进一步加速，主要原因是2023年和2024年的收成不佳。 今年5月，大米价格飙升了101.7%，这标志着半个多世纪以来的最大涨幅。 摩根大通资产管理的全球市场策略师Marcella Chow指出，大米约占日本核心通胀的一半，未来的通胀 趋势在很大程度上依赖于食品价格，尤其是大米。 暂时性的大米价格飙升？ 但 ...

泰国央行：若经济增长低于预期，将考虑降息。 ...

瑞典央行行长特登：瑞典通胀和经济增长的前景仍难以评估，存在发展情况与我们预期存在显著偏离的 风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Swedish Central Bank, Stefan Ingves, indicated that economic growth appears to be weakening, although he does not believe that the current economic downturn will be particularly severe [1] Group 1 - The Swedish economy is experiencing signs of reduced growth [1] - The central bank does not anticipate a significant severity in the current economic downturn [1]

泰国央行：预计2025年经济增长将达到2.3%。 ...

世界贸易组织前首席经济学家库普曼（Robert Koopman）则强调，若高关税政策持续，将引发双重负面 效应，一方面，这将降低外资对美投资吸引力，减少资本净流入；同时，还会扭曲资源配置，促使劳动 力和资本从高附加值产业向低效的传统制造业回流。"（关税政策）会造成长期损失，减少创新，缩小 资本存量，并降低资本分配效率。"他称。 长期来看，关税将渐进性地削弱消费意愿、投资活动和并购交易。 在美国政府关税政策及其衍生不确定性的持续影响下，美国经济如何了？ 当地时间6月24日，美联储主席鲍威尔在国会听证会上表示，美联储有条件在"观望"进一步经济走势预 测后，再考虑对政策立场进行调整，他同时预警夏季通胀可能回升。同日，美国谘商会发布的数据则加 剧了市场忧虑，消费者信心指数从5月修正后的98.4骤降至6月的93.0，消费者对收入前景的预期也明显 恶化。 这一经济图景在天津举行的夏季达沃斯论坛上引发讨论。哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院创始院长、"修昔底 德陷阱"理论提出者艾利森（Graham Allison）表示，美国经济增长预期已出现显著下调，从年初近3% 的增速预测现已腰斩至约1.5%。这种经济动能减弱也已反映在民调中，最新 ...

Core Insights - A member of the Bank of Japan indicated that due to the tendency of the US, Europe, and emerging economies towards accommodative policies, Japan's economy may experience unexpected growth or face inflationary pressures [1] Group 1 - The potential for unexpected growth in Japan's economy is linked to global monetary policies [1] - The accommodative stance of major economies could lead to inflationary pressures in Japan [1]