Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential investment opportunities in the context of the new "three trillion" investment, focusing on the transition of demand towards the service sector as GDP per capita reaches between $10,000 and $30,000, while highlighting the current supply constraints in services and the investment gap that exists [4]. Group 1: Deep Topics - The article emphasizes the need for investment in human capital to bridge the existing investment gap in the service sector [4]. Group 2: Hot Topics - The article analyzes the contrasting expectations and realities of inflation in the U.S. following the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, questioning whether inflation will resurge in the latter half of the year [8]. - It discusses the key areas of focus for the "15th Five-Year Plan" as a critical period leading to the 2035 vision, outlining the progress and potential priorities [10]. - The article addresses the implications of Iran's parliamentary decision to block the Strait of Hormuz, assessing the credibility of such threats and their potential market impacts [13]. Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking - Domestic shipping prices have been continuously rising, indicating a recovery in port freight volumes despite weak overall infrastructure construction [15]. - In the U.S., the recent bond auction performed better than expected, while retail sales in May fell short of forecasts, reflecting mixed economic signals [20]. - The article outlines various recent domestic policy initiatives aimed at enhancing financial market regulation and promoting digital currency operations, including the establishment of a personal credit agency and offshore trade financial services [22].

Group 1 - Spot gold prices have continued to decline, with a daily drop of 2%, currently reported at $3260.99 per ounce [1]

前言 当前，美国正处于高利率与通胀缓慢回落的微妙阶段。 经济数据表现混乱，再加上川普不断制造不确定性，使得整体经济走势并不稳健。 本篇内容将围绕"美国通胀与美联储降息"两个核心话题，做一次简要梳理与分析。 美国通胀与美联储降息 目前美国通胀整体呈现 持续下行 趋势，但经济数据表现不一，呈现一定程度的"混乱"状态。一 方面，如密歇根大学的消费者调研显示情绪较为乐观；另一方面，零售数据却低于预期，反映出 消费端的疲软。 这种背景下，美国经济处于一个"没完全变好，也没一致变坏"的状态，而美联储也因此表现出" 不急于行动 "的态度。 | | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MEETING DATE | 200-225 | 225-250 | 250-275 275-300 | | 300-325 325-350 | | 350-375 | 375-400 | 400 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Industries The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but offers specific operation suggestions for various commodities, which can be roughly summarized as follows: - **Buy**: Iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, crude oil (in certain circumstances), urea, short - fiber, bottle - chip, soybean meal and rapeseed meal (short - term), live pigs, corn, palm oil, soybean oil, cottonseed oil, sugar (short - term), glass, polysilicon (with caution), lithium carbonate [2] - **Sell**: Synthetic rubber, styrene, caustic soda (mid - term), PVC, LLDPE, PP, methanol, sugar (rebound), cotton, eggs (near - month), apples, peanuts, pure membrane, rubber, industrial silicon [2] - **Hold/Observe**: Stock index futures, treasury bonds, precious metals, container shipping index, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, crude oil (short - term), PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, styrene, caustic soda (short - term), PVC, LLDPE, PP, methanol, soybean meal and rapeseed meal, live pigs, corn, palm oil, soybean oil, cottonseed oil, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, peanuts, glass, rubber, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate [2][4] 2. Core Views - **Financial Markets**: The stock index has sector rotation and upward pressure. The bond market may have short - term fluctuations but remains generally strong. Gold and silver prices show different trends due to factors such as inflation data and macro - policies [2] - **Industrial Commodities**: Industrial materials in the steel sector have poor demand and inventory. The iron ore market has high - level iron water production and resilient terminal demand. The coal market has weak - stable spot prices and improved trading [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The energy and chemical market is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, oil prices, and geopolitical conflicts. Different products have different trends, such as PTA and short - fiber with supply - demand changes and cost - related impacts [2] - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as production, supply, and market sentiment. For example, the price of live pigs is affected by early - stage diarrhea in piglets, and the price of sugar is affected by overseas supply prospects [2] - **Special Commodities**: Special commodities like glass and rubber are affected by factors such as production, supply, and market sentiment. For example, glass has better spot market sales, and rubber has a weakening fundamental outlook [2] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial Commodities - **Stock Index Futures**: Observe the discount state of index futures, recommend buying the deeply discounted 09 contracts of CSI 1000 on dips and selling out - of - the - money call options on the 09 contracts above 6300 to form a covered call portfolio [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: On the unilateral strategy, buy treasury bond futures on dips. On the cash - and - carry strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract and consider steepening the yield curve [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices fluctuate between $3300 - 3400. Try the double - selling strategy of out - of - the - money gold options. Silver prices are strongly oscillating between $36 - 37 [2] Industrial Commodities - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For the steel rebar RB2510, consider the long - material and short - raw - material arbitrage operation [2] - **Iron Ore**: Iron water production remains high, and terminal demand is resilient. Buy on dips with an upper pressure level around 720 [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal trading has improved, and the price is expected to rise. Coke prices are close to the bottom. Consider the long - coking - coal and short - coke strategy [2] Energy and Chemical Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The market is driven by fundamentals, with a stalemate between bulls and bears. The upper pressure of Brent is in the range of [64, 65], and the pressure level of SC is in the range of [490, 500]. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see [2][4] - **PTA and Related Products**: PTA and short - fiber have supply - demand changes. PTA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4900, and short - fiber is expected to repair processing fees [2] Agricultural Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The diarrhea of piglets at the beginning of the year may affect subsequent supply, and the market sentiment is strong. Be cautiously bullish [2] - **Sugar**: Overseas supply prospects are relatively loose. Trade short on rebounds, with a reference range of 5600 - 5850 [2] Special Commodities - **Glass**: The spot market sales are improving, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 950 - 1050 [2] - **Rubber**: The fundamental outlook is weakening, and short positions should be held if the price is above 14000 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is at a critical juncture regarding its monetary policy, with mixed signals from officials reflecting a deep examination of economic data and awareness of risk factors [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Divergence - There is significant division within the Federal Reserve regarding the urgency of interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for a July cut while others, including Powell and Williams, oppose it [2]. - Officials emphasize the need to observe several months of data to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, noting the persistent risk of sticky inflation despite a recent drop in April's inflation data [2][3]. - Most officials are targeting action in the fall, preferring a data-driven approach to monetary policy adjustments rather than responding to political pressure [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy experienced a contraction in Q1, with GDP declining at an annualized rate of 0.5%, reversing previous growth expectations [3]. - The trade deficit unexpectedly widened to $96.6 billion in May, driven by a 5.2% drop in exports, particularly in industrial goods like crude oil [3]. - The preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, fell to 2.1% in April, with expectations for a slight increase to 2.3% in May due to rising import costs being passed to consumers [3]. Group 3: Political Dynamics - President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Powell's leadership and is considering early nominations for the next Fed chair, although current plans indicate no immediate changes [4][5]. - The Chicago Fed President emphasized that any potential changes in leadership would not affect current monetary policy, reinforcing the Fed's commitment to its independent decision-making process [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The Fed is closely monitoring upcoming economic data, including June's non-farm payrolls and Q2 GDP, with a potential interest rate cut in September if core PCE falls near 2% and unemployment does not worsen significantly [6]. - Market expectations suggest three rate cuts this year, with a 75% probability for a September cut, while July's cut is seen as less likely [6]. - The Fed's challenge lies in balancing the need to support economic growth and employment while managing inflation risks, particularly in light of rising unemployment claims and sticky core inflation [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are rising due to uncertainties in the economic outlook, particularly influenced by tariff policies and their potential impact on inflation [1][3][4] - Powell's statements indicate a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, suggesting that the effects of tariffs on inflation could be significant but unpredictable [1][4] - The bond market has reacted to these expectations, with yields on U.S. Treasury bonds declining across various maturities [1] Group 2 - Recent data shows a decline in consumer confidence in the U.S., with the June consumer confidence index dropping to 93, reflecting concerns over the economic impact of increased tariffs [3][4] - The U.S. housing market is also showing signs of weakness, with new home sales falling to an annualized rate of 623,000 in May, a 13.7% decrease from the previous month [4] - Economic indicators suggest a potential slowdown, with forecasts predicting GDP growth rates of 0.8% for Q3 and 0.6% for Q4, alongside a rising unemployment rate [5] Group 3 - The article discusses the inflation outlook, emphasizing that the impact of tariffs on inflation may be delayed due to slow implementation and other factors [7][8] - There is a possibility that inflation could rise in the latter half of the year, influenced by various economic pressures and the potential for price increases from retailers [9] - The Federal Reserve's future monetary policy decisions will heavily depend on inflation trends and economic performance, with a cautious approach being favored [11][12]

21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 在本周美联储主席鲍威尔的重要发言过后，美联储降息预期再度升 温。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间6月25日，鲍威尔表示，美国政府施行的前所未有的关税政策使美联储难以 预测通胀前景，也难以决定何时降息。自二战以来，各国在逐渐减少关税。人们会参考美国总统特朗普 的第一个总统任期内关税政策对通胀的影响，但当时加征关税的规模只有如今人们估算的六分之一。所 以美联储需要审慎分析从而做出明智决定。 从表面上看，鲍威尔依旧在"打太极"，但一些言语已经释放了微妙鸽派信号。鲍威尔表示，特朗普政府 的关税计划很可能只会导致物价一次性上涨，同时引发更持久通胀的风险也让美联储在考虑进一步降息 时保持谨慎，关税的影响"可能大也可能小，这是需要小心应对的事情。" 随着美联储降息预期升温，美债市场反应显著，6月25日各期限美债收益率普遍走低。2年期美债收益率 跌4.02个基点至3.779%，5年期美债收益率跌1.59个基点至3.845%，10年期美债收益率跌0.59个基点至 4.291%，30年期美债收益率跌0.31个基点至4.831%。 鹰派美联储为何"转鸽"？ 在美联储鹰派程度减弱背后，美国"硬数据"已经 ...

先说说鲍威尔为啥这么谨慎。按他的意思，关税这东西看着像是给物价来个"一次性冲击"，但经济理论归理论，现实可能玩出不一样的花样。他打了个比 方，要是关税来得猛去得快，那可能就是一次性涨价；但要是这影响拖泥带水，搞不好就变成持续通胀了。而美联储的饭碗就是守着物价稳定，这种风 险肯定得盯着——毕竟他说了，"要是犯了错，大家得长期买单"，这话分量可不轻。 这里面其实藏着个关键矛盾：特朗普天天催着美联储赶紧降息，鲍威尔却偏要"踩刹车"。为啥呢？你看啊，现在关税的影响就像个没拆封的盲盒——到底 加多少？范围多大？对老百姓的钱包影响多深？这些数不清楚，美联储哪敢轻易动利率？鲍威尔说得挺明白："我们得看看夏天的通胀数据，6月7月的数 要是涨起来了，那政策就得调整；要是没动静，说明转嫁到消费者身上的压力没那么大。"这其实就是在等实锤数据，不想当"盲降"的冤大头。 各位朋友，今天咱们聊聊美联储主席鲍威尔最近的"硬核"表态。他在国会听证会上撂下一句话挺关键："没有现代先例，必须严阵以待。"说的是啥呢？其 实就围绕一个核心——特朗普政府的关税政策，到底会不会把美国通胀"点燃"，而美联储在降息这事上为啥迟迟不肯松口。 现在国会山也挺热 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have resurfaced, with Chairman Powell indicating that recent economic data could have supported further rate cuts if not for concerns over tariffs impacting inflation efforts [1] - Powell did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, but emphasized that the strong economy and job market do not necessitate immediate action [1][4] - Several Federal Reserve officials have expressed support for an early rate cut, with Vice Chair Bowman suggesting a potential cut as early as July if inflation continues to decline or the job market weakens [1][4] Group 2 - Concerns remain regarding U.S. inflation, particularly due to uncertainties surrounding trade policies and tariffs, which could lead to persistent inflationary pressures [2] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% during the latest meeting, marking the fourth consecutive time without a change, while also raising inflation expectations for 2025-2027 [2] - Recent inflation data has not yet shown significant impacts from tariff policies, indicating a delayed transmission effect on prices [3] Group 3 - The U.S. labor market remains robust, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 139,000 in May, despite being the lowest since February, and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2% [3] - Powell reiterated the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve to support employment while ensuring price stability, suggesting that the economy is in a "good position" and that immediate rate adjustments are unnecessary [4] - The Fed's economic outlook indicates a consensus for two rate cuts this year, although the number of officials not supporting a cut has increased, reflecting growing internal divisions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding interest rate cuts have intensified, with mixed signals from officials about the timing and necessity of potential rate cuts in July, reflecting uncertainty in the economic outlook [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Fed officials Bowman and Waller have indicated that a rate cut could be considered as early as July, citing concerns over a weakening labor market and the need to support economic growth [2][3]. - Waller believes that the labor market's weakness may justify a July rate cut, while Bowman supports a cut if inflation continues to decline [2][3]. - Other officials, such as Barr and Williams, express caution, highlighting the potential for tariffs to exert upward pressure on inflation and suggesting that the Fed should wait for further economic developments before acting [3][11]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Economic data shows that inflation has remained moderate, but there are concerns that core prices may rebound in the second half of the year, alongside a slight increase in unemployment rates [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that significant triggers for a rate cut could include rapid deterioration in consumer and employment data, as well as risks in corporate bonds [5][6]. - The economic growth forecast for the U.S. is projected to slow to around 1% this year, with inflation expected to rise to 3% [11][12]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Future Outlook - Market expectations for a July rate cut are polarized, with Goldman Sachs maintaining a forecast for two cuts this year, while Morgan Stanley has reduced its forecast to one cut due to tariff risks [14]. - The potential impact of tariffs on GDP growth and inflation is significant, with estimates suggesting a 2.2% decline in GDP growth by 2025 if tariffs are fully implemented [14]. - The ongoing pressure from former President Trump on the Fed may complicate the decision-making process, forcing the Fed into a challenging position regarding rate cuts and inflation management [6][14].