英大证券研究所证券研究报告 2026 年 2 月 25 日 A 股马年开门红，逢低关注"科技+资源品"双主线 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 周二晨报提醒，节后随着资金回流、政策预期升温，市场活跃度有望提升， 行情值得期待。市场走势如我们预期，A 股马年首个交易日如期迎来"开门红"。 上证指数重新站上 4100 点整数关口，深证成指涨幅超 1%，为节后市场走势奠定 了初步向好的基调。 不过，虽实现开门红，但结构性分化特征明显。春节假期期间，AI 与人行机 器人相关话题持续升温，但周二人行机器人板块表现平淡，AI 板块则呈现高开低 走态势，与之形成对比的是，石油化工、有色金属等周期类品种领涨，背后既受 益于海外美伊局势升级的外部催化，也源于周期板块自身的涨价逻辑。 资金面的表现则基本符合节后回流预期，成为支撑市场走强的重要力量。周 二两市成交额显著回升，交投活跃度明显提升，显示节前离场避险的资金正有序 回流市场，市场流动性得到有效补充。但需要警惕的是，港股表现疲软，一定程 度上影响了 A 股 ...

2月17日，在传统农历新年与欧美假期交织的清淡交投中，黄金价格在5000美元关口的争夺战陷入僵 局。OEXN表示，尽管金价在隔夜时段曾一度触及5032美元的高位，但由于全球主要交易中心相继进入 假期模式，市场多头动能明显后劲不足，导致价格回撤至4978.1美元附近。 当前的盘整并不代表趋势的终结，而是市场在极端波动后的自我修复。OEXN认为，金价正试图在5000 美元附近构建一个新的运行通道，但鉴于寻底过程尚未彻底完成，高波动性仍将是本周的主旋律。从市 场数据来看，现货白银的表现相对疲软，1.75%的日内跌幅反映出其在80美元关口上方承压沉重，这主 要归因于投机头寸在缺乏新流动性支持下的主动撤离。 2月17日，在传统农历新年与欧美假期交织的清淡交投中，黄金价格在5000美元关口的争夺战陷入僵 局。OEXN表示，尽管金价在隔夜时段曾一度触及5032美元的高位，但由于全球主要交易中心相继进入 假期模式，市场多头动能明显后劲不足，导致价格回撤至4978.1美元附近。 当前的盘整并不代表趋势的终结，而是市场在极端波动后的自我修复。OEXN认为，金价正试图在5000 美元附近构建一个新的运行通道，但鉴于寻底过程尚未彻底 ...

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have risen significantly, surpassing $5,000 per ounce, driven by geopolitical events and the "Wosh Shock" adjustment[2] - As of January 28, the London gold spot price increased from $4,318 per ounce at the end of last year to $5,414 per ounce[6] - The "Wosh Shock" is nearing its end, as the expectation of balance sheet reduction may raise term premiums, making it difficult for mid to long-term interest rates to decline[9] Group 2: Demand Structure and Influences - Gold demand is primarily driven by jewelry, central bank purchases, and ETFs, with central bank purchases and ETF increases playing a significant role in price changes[7] - The actual delivery volume from futures investors is very low, indicating that gold pricing is more reflective of financial behavior rather than physical demand[8] - Central banks, particularly from Brazil, Indonesia, and Iraq, have been significant buyers of gold in January, contributing to the price increase[8] Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming midterm elections are a major factor, with expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the end of the year supporting gold prices[9] - The global economic landscape remains characterized by "order restructuring" and "low growth with high debt," making gold a preferred asset against uncertainty[9] - Historical patterns suggest that gold will continue to be a key asset as geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties persist[9]

Core Insights - The 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos highlighted the duality of geopolitical tensions and long-term issues like energy transition and AI, reflecting the current global challenges [3][4][12][13] Geopolitical Tensions - The atmosphere at Davos was marked by intense discussions on geopolitical issues, particularly the Greenland situation, which has shocked European nations [3][13] - Media coverage has been dominated by geopolitical friction between the US and Europe, indicating the severity of the current global landscape [3][12] Long-term Discussions - Despite the political backdrop, discussions on energy transition, artificial intelligence, and equitable global development continued, showcasing ongoing efforts in these critical areas [4][13] - The cost competitiveness of renewable energy has significantly improved, providing a solid economic foundation for energy transition even if government support wanes [4][13] European Investment Outlook - Europe is viewed as an attractive investment destination, with major stock indices recently outperforming those in the US [5][14] - Five of the top ten most competitive economies, according to the IMD World Competitiveness Ranking, are located in Europe, with Switzerland at the top [5][14] Innovation and Competitiveness - European companies are characterized by high levels of innovation, particularly among mid-sized firms that play crucial roles in global supply chains [6][16] - While the US and China dominate in AI scale and influence, Europe's strength lies in integrating technology deeply into its industrial framework [5][14][16] Recommendations for Business Leaders - Continuous learning is emphasized as essential for business leaders in a rapidly changing world, as stability is unlikely to return [8][17] - Leaders should acknowledge their knowledge gaps and seek to understand various dimensions, including geopolitics, AI, and generational shifts in the workforce [8][17][18]

Group 1 - The market has experienced a significant sell-off, with the S&P 500 index dropping over 1.3% and the Nasdaq falling over 1.7% after a long weekend, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [1] - The VIX volatility index has surpassed the 20 mark for the first time since November of the previous year, reflecting increased market anxiety [1] - Concerns are primarily centered around President Trump's stance on Greenland, which has raised fears of structural fractures within NATO and potential new trade conflicts [1] Group 2 - Despite the recent sell-off, the average volatility in U.S. debt, equity, and dollar markets remains at its lowest level since at least 1990, suggesting a prior period of calm before the recent turbulence [2] - The rise in Japanese 40-year bond yields above 4% and a 6 basis point increase in U.S. 10-year bond yields to 4.29% have contributed to global market instability [2] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff plans and the potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair has further eroded market confidence, leading to a downgrade in European stock market allocation recommendations by Citigroup [2] Group 3 - Investor sentiment had previously been optimistic, with cash holdings at historical lows and a bullish indicator entering the "extremely bullish" zone, yet nearly half of respondents reported no protection against a significant market downturn [3] - Jefferies strategists anticipate a potential agreement regarding Greenland's sovereignty, but expect market volatility to remain high during the negotiation process [3] - Concerns persist regarding Trump's unpredictable approach to new threats, with historical patterns suggesting he may initially escalate tensions before returning to negotiations, which could continue to impact market confidence [3]

Core Viewpoint - Germany plans to finance €1 trillion in debt by 2026 to boost infrastructure and defense, aiming to revive the struggling European economy, but the effectiveness of this plan remains uncertain amid structural weaknesses and geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Supporters believe that increased investment in infrastructure and defense will stimulate domestic demand and drive economic recovery, with some economists suggesting this is crucial for Germany to escape its recession since late 2022 [1][3]. - The Eurozone's economic growth is projected to slow to 1.2% in 2026, with a slight recovery to 1.4% in 2027, indicating a sluggish economic environment [1]. - The IFO Institute has downgraded Germany's economic growth forecast for 2026 to 0.8%, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs on EU goods as a contributing factor to further economic slowdown [3]. Group 2: Structural Challenges - Germany faces significant challenges, including declining labor potential, insufficient business investment confidence, and weak productivity growth, which could threaten its economic competitiveness without structural reforms [3]. - France, as another key EU economy, is also struggling with high debt levels, projected to reach 130% of GDP by 2030, raising doubts about the effectiveness of Germany's stimulus plan in addressing broader EU economic issues [5]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Trade Concerns - The increasing trade barriers and U.S. tariffs are expected to create uncertainty in Europe's economic outlook, complicating the potential success of Germany's fiscal stimulus [7]. - The interplay between fiscal stimulus and geopolitical tensions may lead to a prolonged struggle without clear short-term victories, raising questions about the sustainability of the proposed economic revival [7].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of China Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (01138) has seen a significant increase, attributed to ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting oil tanker operations in international waters near Venezuela [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - China Cosco Shipping Energy's stock rose over 5% in the afternoon trading session, with a current price of 10.08 HKD and a trading volume of 136 million HKD [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The U.S. Coast Guard is intercepting oil tankers, including the "Bella 1," in international waters near Venezuela, marking the third such interception recently [1]. - Morgan Stanley's research indicates that while concerns about shipping disruptions may gradually diminish, oil tanker profitability is expected to remain resilient next year [1]. - Over 20% of the global oil tanker fleet is over 20 years old, with many vessels concentrated in the "shadow fleet," limiting their ability to participate in compliant trade [1]. - Geopolitical tensions are driving up demand for oil transportation, with approximately 18% to 20% of the global fleet engaged in non-compliant transportation due to sanctions on vessels from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela [1].

Core Viewpoint - Toyota Motor Corporation (TM.US) reported an increase in October sales, driven by strong demand in the U.S. market, which offset declines in China and Japan [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Global sales for the Toyota group, including Daihatsu and Hino, rose by 3% year-on-year, reaching 1 million units, marking a record high for October [1] - Sales of Toyota and Lexus brands in the U.S. increased by 12%, while sales in China decreased by 6.6% and in Japan by 4.2% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite facing tariff pressures from U.S. President Trump's import duties on vehicles and parts, Toyota is increasingly relying on the North American market [1] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between China and Japan, may reshape Toyota's global sales landscape [1] Group 3: Financial Outlook - Toyota raised its full-year operating profit forecast to 3.4 trillion yen, despite estimating a loss of 1.4 trillion yen due to a 15% tariff policy [1] - This adjustment follows a downward revision of expectations in August [1] Group 4: Electric Vehicle Sales - Global sales of Toyota's pure electric vehicles surged by 74% year-on-year, reaching 18,322 units [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the Dutch government's actions against the semiconductor company Nexperia, a subsidiary of Wingtech Technology, highlighting the unintended consequences for both the Netherlands and its European allies in the semiconductor supply chain [1][2]. Group 1: Dutch Government Actions - The Dutch government imposed dual restrictions on Nexperia, which aligns with U.S. export control measures, raising suspicions of coordinated efforts against Chinese assets [1][2]. - Following the restrictions, China retaliated with export controls, affecting major automotive manufacturers in Europe, including Honda, Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes, leading to potential production halts [2][3]. Group 2: Semiconductor Industry Dynamics - Nexperia's operational structure includes significant manufacturing capabilities in China, with 70%-80% of its production capacity located there, particularly in Dongguan, which handles 70% of global shipments [3][6]. - The article emphasizes that despite the Dutch restrictions, the short-term impact on Nexperia's operations may be mitigated by domestic Chinese semiconductor manufacturers like SMIC and Huahong, which can cover 80% of specifications [6]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The actions of the Dutch government are seen as part of a broader strategy by the U.S. and its allies to curb China's semiconductor industry, with the Netherlands acting as a key player in this geopolitical landscape [7][9]. - The article suggests that the long-standing global division of labor led by the U.S. and Europe is collapsing, with China beginning to reshape the rules of the semiconductor game [10][12]. Group 4: Future Implications - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to continue affecting companies like Nexperia, with the potential for further restrictions and competitive dynamics in the semiconductor sector [12][13]. - The article concludes that the current situation serves as a warning to smaller nations about the shifting balance of power in the semiconductor industry and the need for strategic adjustments [13].

Core Insights - Despite ongoing pressure from the United States, Russia remains China's largest crude oil supplier as of September 2023, with imports increasing by 4.3% month-on-month to 8.287 million tons, valued at $4.066 billion [1] - China has halted crude oil purchases from the U.S. since June, although the U.S. share in China's total imports was already minimal [1] - The progress of the China-Russia cross-border pipeline project is enhancing cooperation between the two nations, with a slight year-on-year increase of 1.9% in liquefied natural gas imports from Russia in September [1] - China's crude oil imports from Indonesia surged approximately 73 times year-on-year in September, while imports from Brazil increased by 156%, diversifying China's energy supply sources [1] Geopolitical Context - The increase in crude oil purchases from Russia is seen as a defiant stance by China ahead of further negotiations with the U.S. [3] - Former U.S. President Trump has intensified efforts to curb Russian energy revenues, urging India to stop purchasing Russian crude and suggesting that China should follow suit [3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary has also warned Japan to terminate energy imports from Russia, indicating a broader strategy to isolate Russian energy sources [3] China's Position - The Chinese Foreign Ministry has reiterated that its energy cooperation with Russia is legitimate and normal, criticizing U.S. actions as unilateral bullying and economic coercion [4] - China maintains a neutral stance on the Ukraine crisis and opposes U.S. sanctions, asserting that it will take necessary measures to protect its legitimate rights and interests if harmed [4]