自2026年1月1日起，数字人民币钱包余额开始按照活期存款 计付利息。这一变化，于微观而言是账户重构，于宏观而言是 货币突围。 作者：欧阳晓红 封图：图虫创意 你的数字人民币（e-CNY）钱包，终于有了时间的味道。 自2026年1月1日起，数字人民币钱包余额开始按照活期存款计付利息。这一变化，于微观而言是 账户重构，于宏观而言是货币突围。 如果仍执着于"央行直接负债+100%准备金+不计息"，数字人民币则像一项支付工具试验。而在 数字经济时代，当数字人民币走向"存款化、计量框架升级、激励机制更一致"，它就更像一种能 够与经济增长、金融中介机制相适配的货币形态，某种程度上也被赋予了另一层深意——探索跨境 支付的中国方案。 告别零息 2025年12月29日，中国人民银行副行长陆磊在《金融时报》刊文《守正创新稳步发展数字人民 币》。文章披露，新一代数字人民币计量框架、管理体系、运行机制和生态体系将于2026年1月1 日正式启动实施。 文章中更关键的一句话是，这一制度安排在"双层架构"基础上，明确了客户在商业银行钱包中的 数字人民币是以账户为基础的商业银行负债，标志着数字人民币由现金型1.0版进入存款货币型数 字人民 ...

Group 1 - Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has been a crucial pillar of China's economy since the reform and opening-up, contributing to its rise as the "world's factory" [1] - China's Outward Direct Investment (ODI) has rapidly expanded over the past two decades, making it one of the top three outward investment countries globally [1] - The growth of China's ODI is driven by the diversification of income sources sought by Chinese enterprises, with a trend towards targeting emerging markets amid increasing global trade uncertainties [1] Group 2 - The focus of China's overseas investments has shifted from single infrastructure projects to high-value sectors such as green energy and telecommunications, adopting a "chain transfer" model for local industrial clusters [2] - Chinese enterprises are increasingly emphasizing technology transfer and management experience, with significant training initiatives for local professionals in host countries [2] Group 3 - In developed markets, particularly Europe, greenfield investments by China are becoming predominant, especially in the electric vehicle sector, indicating a deepening of localization efforts [3] Group 4 - A growing number of Chinese enterprises are using the Renminbi for overseas investments, with 27.1% of surveyed companies reporting that over 50% of their ODI is in Renminbi, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous year [4] - Nearly 67% of surveyed enterprises plan to increase the proportion of Renminbi used in their overseas investment projects, marking a recent high [4] Group 5 - This trend is accelerating the internationalization of Chinese financial institutions, necessitating product upgrades and more complex global risk pricing and compliance systems [5] - Recommendations for furthering the internationalization of Chinese financial institutions include enhancing innovation and strengthening cross-border regulatory coordination [5]

Group 1: Core Insights - Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has been a crucial pillar of China's economy since the reform and opening-up, contributing to its rise as the "world's factory" [1] - China's Outward Direct Investment (ODI) has rapidly expanded over the past two decades, making it one of the top three outward investment countries globally [1] Group 2: Drivers of China's ODI Growth - The growth of China's ODI is driven by companies seeking diversified revenue sources, with a trend expected to continue in the coming years, particularly targeting emerging markets amid global trade uncertainties [1] - In 2024, China's direct investment in ASEAN is projected to increase by 36.8% year-on-year, primarily focused on the manufacturing sector, aiding Chinese companies in tapping into the region's growing domestic market [1] Group 3: Changes in Investment Patterns - Initially, China's overseas investments were concentrated on single infrastructure projects, but there has been a shift towards high-value sectors like green energy and telecommunications, adopting a "chain transfer" model for local industrial clusters [2] - Chinese companies are increasingly emphasizing technology transfer, management experience, and technical standards, with significant training initiatives for local professionals in regions like Africa [2] Group 4: Impact on RMB Internationalization - A growing number of Chinese enterprises are using RMB for overseas investments, with 27.1% of surveyed companies reporting that over 50% of their ODI is in RMB, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous year [4] - Nearly 67% of surveyed companies plan to increase the proportion of RMB used in their overseas investment projects, marking a recent high [4] Group 5: Financial Institutions' Internationalization - The trend of increased RMB usage in overseas investments is accelerating the internationalization of Chinese financial institutions, necessitating product upgrades and more complex global risk pricing and compliance systems [5] - Recommendations for furthering the internationalization of Chinese financial institutions include enhancing innovation and strengthening cross-border regulatory coordination to support the transition from an "investment giant" to an "investment powerhouse" [5]

Group 1 - Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has been a crucial pillar of China's economy since the reform and opening-up, contributing to its rise as the "world's factory" [1] - China has rapidly expanded its Outbound Direct Investment (ODI) over the past two decades, becoming one of the top three outbound investment countries globally [1] Group 2 - The growth of China's ODI is driven by companies seeking diversified revenue sources, with a trend towards targeting emerging markets amid global trade uncertainties [2] - In 2024, China's direct investment in ASEAN is expected to increase by 36.8%, primarily in the manufacturing sector, aiding companies in tapping into the region's growing domestic market [2] Group 3 - China's investment model has shifted from focusing on single infrastructure projects to high-value sectors like green energy and telecommunications, adopting a "chain transfer" model for overseas investments [3] - Chinese companies are increasingly emphasizing technology transfer and management experience, with significant training initiatives for local professionals in host countries [3] Group 4 - In developed markets, particularly Europe, greenfield investments by China are expected to dominate its direct investments, especially in the electric vehicle sector, indicating a deepening localization of Chinese enterprises [4] Group 5 - A growing number of Chinese companies are using the Renminbi for overseas investments, with 27.1% of surveyed companies reporting that over 50% of their ODI is in Renminbi, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous year [5] - Nearly 67% of surveyed companies plan to increase the proportion of Renminbi in their overseas investment projects, marking a recent high [5] Group 6 - This trend is accelerating the internationalization of Chinese financial institutions, necessitating product upgrades and more complex global risk pricing and compliance systems [6] - Recommendations for furthering the internationalization of Chinese financial institutions include enhancing innovation and strengthening cross-border regulatory coordination [6]

最新数据一曝光，全网都看明白了：中国央行的黄金储备直接创下历史新高！截至去年12月，我们手里 的黄金已经达到7415万盎司，折算下来差不多2306吨，更关键的是，这已经是连续14个月疯狂增持了！ 不少人纳闷，央行为啥要这么执着买黄金？这背后藏着的大棋局，说出来恐怕让美国都坐不住！ 要说 这增持的时机，那可是精准踩在节点上，正好是美国大选尘埃落定，特朗普重返白宫之际。当时大家就 预判，2025年美国的全球战略肯定要大改，果不其然，特朗普上台后又是逼着美联储降息，又是在全球 掀贸易战，国际金融市场瞬间变得波诡云谲。 这些年美国老把金融当武器，到处搞长臂管辖，不少国家都怕了，纷纷想办法摆脱对美元的依赖。而中 国要推动人民币国际化，让更多国家愿意用、敢用人民币，就必须有足够的黄金做信用背书。黄金的价 值不分国界，不管国际局势怎么变，它的硬通货属性都不会变。手里有这么多黄金，就是向世界证明： 咱们有能力稳住人民币币值，人民币国际化自然能走得更顺。 现在来看，这些风险不仅没消失，反而 越来越大。 美联储主席鲍威尔马上就要卸任了，特朗普要换自己人上台，下半年美国的金融政策大概率会更激进， 国际金融市场又要面临新的冲击。台海 ...

专题：2026中国首席经济学家论坛年会 专题：2026中国首席经济学家论坛年会 2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会于1月10-11日在上海举行，主题为"棋至中局：承前启后 建设强国"。 前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙出席并发言。 杨德龙表示，人民币结算比例现在很低，大概4%左右。他估计未来肯定会上升到10%以上。"和美元有 一定差距，但会超过日元、英镑等，我认为人民币进入前三大支付货币的可能性还是很大的。" 新浪声明：所有会议实录均为现场速记整理，未经演讲者审阅，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目 的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。 2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会于1月10-11日在上海举行，主题为"棋至中局：承前启后 建设强国"。 前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙出席并发言。 杨德龙表示，人民币结算比例现在很低，大概4%左右。他估计未来肯定会上升到10%以上。"和美元有 一定差距，但会超过日元、英镑等，我认为人民币进入前三大支付货币的可能性还是很大的。" 新浪声明：所有会议实录均为现场速记整理，未经演讲者审阅，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目 的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。 责任编辑：王翔 ...

但是现在石油市场的困境人尽皆知，加拿大的石油供应者必定会坐地起价，这就意味着我们需要付出更大的成本，才能保证中国的石油供应链不断裂。就算 中国转而向其他国家进口石油，我们也无法保证能够买到同样用于高端工业链条的高品质石油，所以加拿大仍然是一个我们逃不开的选择。 在马杜罗被活捉的事件发生的时候，特朗普第一时间召开新闻发布会，针对委内瑞拉石油流向问题作出重大说明。美国之所以要在1月2日深夜紧急对委内瑞 拉动手，就是要把委内瑞拉的石油全方位接管，从而重塑全球能源交易网络，借此机会重振美国世界霸主的地位。他们的行为，直接影响了中国石油供应链 的稳定发展。 虽然特朗普已经作出承诺，中国可以继续和美国合作，从美国这里进口原本产自委内瑞拉的石油，但这个承诺其实只是画大饼，我们不可能接受。其一是美 国的要价太高，他们想利用中间渠道攫取巨额利润，这无异于直接损害中国的经济利益。在有选择的情况下，中国不会去当这个冤大头。 其二则是美国提出了一个非常过分的要求，他们强迫中国在向他们进口石油的时候，必须使用美元结算，放弃已经在推进的人民币结算体系。中国现在正在 大力推动人民币的国际化进程，试图在全球范围内建立属于中国的金融秩序，美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global circulation of the US dollar is expected to gradually decline over a long-term period of approximately 20-30 years, which has significant implications for China [3][6]. Group 1: Long-term Implications - In the long run, the internationalization of the RMB should not aim to replace the US dollar, as this could lead to domestic industrial hollowing out due to capital outflow, similar to the current situation in the US. Instead, the focus should be on maintaining trade stability [7]. Group 2: Medium-term Strategies - Given that the US is unwilling to take on the responsibility of creating global demand, China should anticipate long-term downward pressure on external demand. Therefore, it is essential to expand domestic demand, whether through increasing consumption or stimulating investment, to reduce reliance on external demand [7]. Group 3: Short-term Outlook - The extent to which the US is willing to accept the impacts of de-globalization will determine China's external demand outlook for 2026. Currently, the US seems to desire a path of de-globalization while avoiding significant domestic economic costs, which may lead to a stable yet declining external demand outlook for China [7].

Core Viewpoint - The digital renminbi (e-CNY) will start accruing interest on wallet balances as of January 1, 2026, marking a significant shift from a cash-like payment tool to a deposit currency model, which aligns with economic growth and financial intermediation mechanisms [1][2][3] Digital Renminbi Transition - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will implement a new measurement framework and management system for digital renminbi on January 1, 2026, transitioning from a cash-type model to a deposit currency model [2] - Major state-owned banks will begin to pay interest on digital renminbi wallet balances at the same rate as regular savings accounts [2] Systemic Upgrade - The ability to earn interest signifies a systemic upgrade, transforming digital renminbi from a mere tool to a comprehensive monetary system, responding to global trends in digital currencies [3][4] - The PBOC aims to redefine how money exists, circulates, and is governed, moving towards a more sustainable and operationally integrated digital currency [3][4] Cross-Border Payment Enhancements - The PBOC is focusing on enhancing cross-border payment systems, including expanding the use of the renminbi in international transactions and improving the efficiency of cross-border financial flows [5][6] - The digital renminbi is expected to become a core engine for cross-border payments, facilitating smoother transactions and reducing costs for businesses [5][6] Infrastructure Development - Recent policies indicate a strategic alignment between digital renminbi development and cross-border payment infrastructure, aiming for a cohesive system that supports both domestic and international financial activities [7][8] - The revised rules for the renminbi cross-border payment system will enhance governance and scalability, ensuring a robust framework for financial transactions [8][9] Future Implications - The transition to a deposit currency model is anticipated to significantly increase liquidity within the banking system and encourage more financial services around digital renminbi [13][14] - The internationalization of the renminbi will depend on clear rules, risk management, and compliance, which are essential for building trust among global financial institutions [14][15] Conclusion - The digital renminbi's evolution into a deposit currency represents a fundamental shift in China's monetary policy, with implications for both domestic financial stability and international currency dynamics [1][3][14]

Group 1 - The new silver export policy implemented on New Year's Day signals a significant shift in China's control over the global silver trade, allowing only large enterprises with an annual production of over 80 tons to participate [1] - Silver is increasingly recognized as a strategic resource, essential not only for jewelry and investment but also for high-end weapons and advanced technology [1] Group 2 - The previous rare earth export restrictions have highlighted the dependency of U.S. high-tech and defense industries on Chinese materials, with significant implications for supply chains [3] - China controls 83% of tungsten, 98% of gallium, and 70% of rare earth elements globally, showcasing its dominance in these critical materials [5] - The price of tungsten has more than doubled over the past year, reflecting the growing demand for high-end manufacturing applications [5] Group 3 - The changing economic landscape has led to a shift in currency dynamics, with an increasing number of central banks expressing interest in holding RMB assets, surpassing $600 billion in foreign purchases of RMB bonds [7] - China's control over core resources is becoming increasingly recognized, contributing to a stronger economic position [7] Group 4 - The competition for resources is intensifying, with the U.S. seeking to secure mineral resources while China is strategically managing the export of materials like gallium and graphite for military purposes [9] - The global supply-demand gap for silver and copper is widening, leading to rising prices, supported by a robust domestic market [10] - The management of strategic materials is crucial for reclaiming China's voice in international negotiations and facilitating the internationalization of the RMB [10]