#Crypto #2025大概率明年的主要收入就不是 DeFi / 套利了。作为 2025 回顾篇，聊聊最近一些事件：1. 杂种稳定币。在 1011 的时候就风险提示过了：https://t.co/NdAR42kjM2长期关注的朋友应该有印象，我接过所有的脱锚-回锚的币的针。但杂种稳定币，只能是作为 Curator 不让人亏钱，自己不亏钱，没办法盈利。因为无法积累杂种稳定币的债务，脱锚的时候也不可能抄底。而对手方（项目方）上可以坏账，下可以折价回收。完完全全无敌作弊码，敢玩就是死。这种杂种稳定币，我的重点监控对象还有 2 家。希望未来几年他们越做越大，大到让我可以借坏账筹码，暴雷的时候捡点钱。不用问是谁，没发生的事情说了是 fud，发生了招竞争对手。大部分 DeFi 人心里有数自己准备。2. Ethena 代表 DeFi 的终结。我的文章和推文聊过 Ethena 很多很多次，它是这两年轮牛市的唯一核心。从 Ethena 这个项目上赚千万人民币的人很多很多很多，业务模式稳固、利润和容量巨大、生命周期长的矿，从我了解 DeFi 以来独此一家。然后 Ethena S4 的空投，已经实质性违约了。我觉得比 S3 好， ...

Core Insights - The synthetic stablecoin USDX issued by Stable Labs has experienced a significant de-pegging from its $1 value, raising concerns about potential cascading effects on decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols [1][3] - Major DeFi protocols, including Lista DAO and PancakeSwap, have initiated emergency measures to monitor the situation and mitigate risks associated with the USDX crisis [1][3] Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the de-pegging of USDX, Lista DAO launched an emergency governance vote (LIP 022) to authorize forced liquidation of assets linked to MEV Capital and Re7 Labs [3][4] - Lista DAO executed a flash loan to recover over 2.9 million USD1 tokens, aiming to contain the crisis before it escalated further [1][3] - PancakeSwap has alerted users to monitor their positions in affected liquidity pools, indicating the widespread impact of the USDX situation [5][6] Group 2: Underlying Issues - Speculation regarding the cause of USDX's de-pegging includes a potential link to a $128 million theft from Balancer, which may have forced Stable Labs to liquidate its Bitcoin and Ethereum short positions [7][8] - Concerns have been raised about the management of USDX, with questions about the lack of active portfolio management and the apparent failure of major borrowers to repay loans [7][8] Group 3: Company Background - Stable Labs, the issuer of USDX, claims to comply with EU MiCA regulations and has a notable investment background, having raised $45 million at a $275 million valuation [8] - Despite its significant backing from well-known investors, Stable Labs has remained silent regarding the USDX crisis, contributing to market uncertainty [8]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced a cumulative decline this week, marking the worst week since early April, with the Nasdaq down 3.04%, the Dow down 1.21%, and the S&P 500 down 1.63% [4][3] - Technology stocks dragged down the Nasdaq, with the index of the seven major U.S. tech companies falling by 0.56%, and Tesla dropping 3.71% [4][5] Gold Market - Gold prices fluctuated significantly this week, with the price rebounding to $4000 per ounce on November 7, despite a cumulative decline of 0.06% for the week [10][8] Government Shutdown - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 39th day, with negotiations between Democrats and Republicans stalled, leading to a significant impact on the economy and public services [12][11] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that if the shutdown lasts six weeks, economic losses could reach $11 billion, and $14 billion if it lasts eight weeks [13] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Debate - Internal debates within the Federal Reserve regarding a potential interest rate cut in December have intensified, with a 66.5% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 33.5% chance of maintaining current rates [18][17] - Fed officials express differing views on the necessity and extent of potential rate cuts, with some advocating for a more aggressive approach [17][14]

Group 1: International News - The U.S. Senate failed to advance the Specific Federal Employee Appropriations Act (S.3012) with a vote of 53 to 43, leading to continued furloughs for federal employees as bipartisan disagreements persist over government shutdown issues [1] - The U.S. Transportation Secretary warned that flight reductions could reach 15% to 20% if the situation worsens [5] - The Federal Reserve's financial stability report highlighted political uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and artificial intelligence (AI) as major stability concerns, with respondents worried about a reversal of AI optimism potentially impacting risk assets and labor markets [6] - The widespread use of stablecoins may lower neutral interest rates and increase the risk of hitting the zero lower bound, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to cut rates and raise the value of the dollar [7][8] Group 2: Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.16%, the Nasdaq down 0.21%, and the S&P 500 up 0.13%; major tech stocks experienced divergence, with Intel rising over 2% while Google and Tesla fell over 2% and 3%, respectively [9] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index dropped approximately 1%, with Xpeng Motors falling over 6% [10] - Cryptocurrency performance was strong, with Bitcoin surpassing $103,000 and $104,000, gaining 1.67% and 2.70% respectively, while Ethereum rose above $3,400 with a daily increase of 2.59% [11][12][13] - Spot gold prices exceeded $4,020 per ounce, and New York futures surpassed $4,030 per ounce, with daily gains of 1.12% and 0.98% respectively [14][15] Group 3: Corporate Developments - Tesla's shareholder vote revealed that an alternative compensation plan for Elon Musk received 1.94 billion votes in favor, while Musk's original compensation plan garnered approximately 1.89 billion votes; a proposal for the board to authorize investment in xAI received 473.1 million abstentions [16][17] - OpenAI requested the U.S. to expand the tax credit scope of the Chips and Science Act to include data centers, while Samsung is in talks with Barclays to launch a credit card in the U.S. [18][19] Group 4: Domestic News - China's first electromagnetic catapult aircraft carrier was officially commissioned, with President Xi Jinping attending the flag-raising ceremony and inspecting the ship [26] - In the first ten months, China's goods trade imports and exports grew by 3.6%, indicating sustained resilience in foreign trade [27] Group 5: Market Dynamics - Coking coal futures fell by 2% to 1,252.50 yuan per ton [28] - Five New Tunnel Equipment stated in an investor relations event that its products have been applied in small quantities for hydropower projects downstream of the Yarlung Tsangpo River, positioning the hydropower market as a key growth area [29]

Core Viewpoint - The growth of stablecoins may significantly lower the "neutral interest rate" in the future, suggesting that the Federal Reserve's policy interest rates should be adjusted downward to avoid contractionary pressures on the economy [1] Group 1: Impact of Stablecoins - The expansion of stablecoins is expected to increase the net supply of lendable funds in the economy, applying downward pressure on the neutral interest rate [1] - If the neutral interest rate declines, the policy interest rate should also decrease to maintain economic health; refusal to lower rates would be considered a tightening action by the central bank [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Current Stance - Federal Reserve Governor Milan has called for multiple 50 basis point rate cuts to bring the policy rate closer to what he considers a "neutral" level [1] - Factors such as immigration policy adjustments and changes in tariff policies are contributing to the decline in the neutral interest rate, while the current policy rate is "far above neutral levels," imposing significant restrictions on the economy [1] Group 3: Stablecoin Regulations - Stablecoins are digital currencies pegged to sovereign currencies (usually the US dollar) and are designed to maintain stable value [1] - Recent US legislation requires stablecoin issuers to hold reserves in cash and cash equivalents (including US Treasury securities) at a 1:1 ratio, indicating that as stablecoin issuance grows, demand for US Treasuries will also increase [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Milan suggests that the rise of stablecoins may lower the U.S. neutral interest rate, known as "r-star," and advocates for interest rate cuts to avoid hindering economic growth [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of Stablecoins - The proliferation of stablecoins could lead to a decrease in the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate by approximately 0.4 percentage points [1]. - Stablecoins are increasing the demand for U.S. Treasury securities and other dollar-denominated liquid assets, a trend expected to continue [1][2]. - Even conservative estimates of stablecoin growth indicate an increase in the net supply of lendable funds in the economy, which would further lower the neutral interest rate [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - Milan has consistently advocated for a series of rapid interest rate cuts, suggesting a reduction of 50 basis points to align the policy rate closer to his estimate of the neutral rate [3]. - He believes the current neutral interest rate is significantly lower than most of his colleagues' estimates, indicating that the Federal Reserve's current policy stance is overly restrictive and burdensome for the economy [3]. - Milan cites various factors, including changes in immigration policy and tariffs, as additional evidence supporting his view that the neutral interest rate has declined [3].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Milan is scheduled to deliver a speech regarding stablecoins and monetary policy at approximately 3 PM Eastern Time [1] Group 1 - The speech will focus on the implications of stablecoins within the context of current monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of Tether (USDT) as a dominant stablecoin, highlighting its significant user base, market valuation, and the unique strategies that have contributed to its success in emerging markets, particularly in the context of high inflation and currency devaluation in countries like Argentina [3][10][34]. Group 1: Tether's Market Position - Tether has over 500 million "real users," representing approximately 6.25% of the global population, with a market capitalization exceeding $180 billion [9][10]. - Tether's net profit for 2024 is projected to reach $13 billion, surpassing that of some of the largest global banks [11]. - Tether is seeking to raise $15 billion with a target valuation of $500 billion, comparable to major tech companies like OpenAI and ByteDance [12][13]. Group 2: User Adoption and Growth - The adoption of stablecoins, particularly USDT, has surged in regions like Africa and South America, driven by the need for wealth preservation and efficient cross-border payments [5][6][51]. - In Argentina, approximately two-thirds of the cryptocurrencies purchased are stablecoins pegged to the US dollar, primarily USDT [6]. - The user base of Tether has grown from around 3 million in 2020 to 500 million in recent years, indicating a significant increase in demand for stablecoins [23]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Tether holds a dominant market share of approximately 59% in the stablecoin market, with its closest competitor, Circle's USDC, holding about 24% [34]. - The stablecoin market is expected to grow significantly, with projections suggesting it could exceed $2 trillion by 2028 [33]. - Tether's success is attributed to its ability to operate in a regulatory gray area, allowing for rapid expansion without the constraints faced by more compliant competitors like Circle [56]. Group 4: Strategic Partnerships and Innovations - Tether has invested in over 100 companies globally to establish a wide distribution network, particularly in emerging markets [49]. - The company has developed innovative projects, such as solar-powered service kiosks in Africa, to enhance its presence and utility in local markets [50]. - Tether's approach to market entry involves grassroots education and partnerships with local businesses, contrasting with competitors that focus on large institutional partnerships [48]. Group 5: Regulatory Challenges and Future Outlook - Tether faces potential regulatory scrutiny as the stablecoin market matures, with increasing emphasis on compliance and transparency [58][60]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with regulatory compliance becoming a critical factor for success, potentially impacting Tether's market share in the long term [62]. - Despite these challenges, Tether's established liquidity and network effects may help it maintain its leading position in the short to medium term [62].

来源：滚动播报 美联储理事沃勒：稳定币引入了支付领域的竞争。 ...

Core Insights - OKX has launched OKX Pay and OKX Card in Brazil, providing users with access to USD-denominated stablecoin savings and payment solutions, addressing the demand for inflation-resistant financial options [1][8] Group 1: Rising Demand for Dollar-Based Finance - Stablecoins represent over 90% of cryptocurrency transaction volume in Brazil, driven by ongoing inflation and currency volatility [2] - Brazil is the leader in Latin America for crypto transactions and ranks fifth globally in adoption, with households and small businesses seeking financial stability through USD savings [2] Group 2: Transaction Efficiency - OKX Pay and OKX Card allow users to convert Brazilian reais (BRL) to USD stablecoins instantly via PIX integration, eliminating intermediaries and traditional banking delays [3] - The platform can save users up to $39 in fees and taxes on a $1,000 transaction compared to conventional services, with costs as low as $17.30 for transfers [4][5] Group 3: Earning and Spending in USD - OKX Pay offers users up to 10% annual percentage yield (APY) on stablecoin balances, with daily calculations and weekly distributions, and supports both domestic and international transfers [6] - OKX Card functions as an international USD Mastercard debit card, allowing users to make payments globally through Mastercard's network and integrates with Apple Pay and Google Wallet [7] Group 4: Company Vision - The CEO of OKX Brazil emphasizes the goal of making crypto practical and accessible, providing seamless and cost-efficient access to the global economy without hidden fees or conversion costs [8]