12月25日，外汇市场迎来标志性时刻——离岸人民币对美元汇率开盘升破"7"关口，2024年10月以来首 次收复这一重要整数关口，盘中最高触及6.9985，创15个月以来新高。与此同时，在岸人民币对美元汇 率同步走强，逼近"7"关口，报7.0066，创2024年9月以来新高。2025年以来，伴随美元走弱，人民币汇 率开启显著升值通道，11月下旬后更是呈现明确单边升值态势。"7更多就是一个数学上的含义，与6.9 和7.1并没有什么太大的区别，市场没必要一惊一乍。"中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛表示。管涛认 为，近期人民币升值缘于短期利多因素占据上风，并非意味着升值新周期的开启。综合来看，明年人民 币汇率大概率不会出现单边走势，更可能围绕7反复波动。人民币汇率最终走势将主要取决于三大因 素：中美两国经济恢复的相对强度、美元利率与汇率的变化趋势、中国对外经贸关系的演进及国内经济 恢复情况。市场不应过度执着于对具体点位的猜测，也不应形成单边升值或贬值的线性预期，汇率双向 波动将成常态。（第一财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has strengthened significantly in December, with the offshore yuan surpassing the 7.0 mark against the US dollar for the first time since September 2024, indicating a trend of appreciation in the currency [1]. Factors Driving Yuan Appreciation - The recent appreciation of the yuan is attributed to three main factors: expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, a weakening US dollar index, and increased demand for currency conversion from domestic enterprises as the year-end approaches [3][6]. - Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: The Fed is anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, with inflation cooling and signs of a slowing labor market, leading investors to bet on two potential rate cuts in 2026. The 10-year US Treasury yield has stabilized between 3.9% and 4.2% since September, reflecting market expectations for a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [3]. - Weakening US Dollar Index: The US dollar index has dropped to around 97.80, marking a 9.8% decline for the year, the worst annual performance since 2017, which has contributed to the appreciation of non-US currencies, including the yuan [3]. - Increased Corporate Currency Conversion Demand: As the year-end approaches, domestic foreign trade enterprises are increasing their demand for currency conversion to meet financial settlement and cash flow needs, leading to a seasonal strengthening of the yuan [6]. Implications for Domestic Capital Markets - The appreciation of the yuan is expected to have a positive impact on domestic capital markets, enhancing the attractiveness of yuan-denominated assets and potentially providing more room for monetary policy easing [6]. - Analysts suggest that the strengthening yuan indicates foreign investors' confidence in yuan assets, which could drive up asset prices [6]. Future Outlook - Looking ahead, the yuan's exchange rate is expected to fluctuate around the 7.0 mark, with predictions suggesting it may rise to the 6.7 to 6.8 range by the end of 2026 if the US dollar index remains weak [7]. - The central economic work conference emphasizes maintaining the yuan's stability at a reasonable level, indicating that rapid appreciation may prompt financial authorities to intervene to stabilize fluctuations [7]. - Analysts predict that the US dollar index may continue to weaken, potentially falling to 96 by the end of 2026, although the pace of decline may be more moderate compared to this year [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has broken the "7" level against the USD for the first time since October 2024, reaching a high of 6.9985, while the onshore RMB also strengthened, nearing the "7" mark at 7.0066, marking a new high since September 2024. The recent appreciation is attributed to a weaker USD and stable economic fundamentals in China, but experts caution against expecting a new cycle of unilateral appreciation [1][2][4]. Group 1: Factors Driving RMB Strength - The recent appreciation of the RMB is primarily driven by the weakening of the USD, which has seen a decline of about 3% since late November, providing external support for the RMB [2][4]. - China's economic fundamentals remain robust, with a trade surplus of $1.0758 trillion for the first 11 months of 2025, bolstering confidence in the RMB [2][4]. - Increased demand for currency settlement by enterprises at year-end has contributed to the seasonal strengthening of the RMB, although this "settlement tide" is not the main driver of the current appreciation [2][3]. Group 2: Outlook on RMB Exchange Rate - Experts generally believe that a sustained unilateral appreciation of the RMB is unlikely, with expectations for continued two-way fluctuations around the "7" level [4][8]. - The future trajectory of the USD is uncertain, with predictions of a potential rebound after a period of decline, which could diminish the RMB's appreciation momentum [4][5]. - The complex external economic environment, including trade relations and potential retaliatory measures from other countries due to China's trade surplus, adds uncertainty to the RMB's future [5][6]. Group 3: Implications for Enterprises - The appreciation of the RMB presents both opportunities and challenges for enterprises, benefiting capital markets and importers while posing risks for exporters [9][10]. - Exporters are experiencing exchange rate losses due to the rapid appreciation, which affects their international price competitiveness and order flow [10][11]. - Companies are advised to adopt systematic risk management strategies to mitigate the impacts of exchange rate fluctuations, focusing on maintaining a neutral stance towards currency risk [11].

Group 1 - The article discusses four key policy trends observed from the central bank meeting, indicating significant changes in monetary policy direction [3] - The A-share market showed minor upward movement, with individual investor enthusiasm recovering, but institutional funds remain cautious and have not significantly increased their positions [3] - A notable policy signal from the central bank is the recent rapid appreciation of the Renminbi, which has crossed the important threshold of 7, entering the "6" range, prompting attention to the central bank's stance on exchange rates [3] Group 2 - The central bank's recent meeting is highlighted as having the most substantial changes in its quarterly policy guidance in recent quarters, particularly regarding the Renminbi's exchange rate stability [3] - The central bank's statement on the Renminbi's current status is that it remains "basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level," which is crucial given the rapid appreciation observed [3]

新华网北京12月25日电（刘睿祎 梁栋飞）近期，人民币兑美元汇率不断走强。12月25日，离岸人民币 对美元升破7.0整数关口，截至发稿时，达6.9978；在岸人民币对美元也探至7.0133。另外，中国外汇交 易中心12月25日受权公布人民币对美元的市场汇价，即人民币对美元市场中间价为7.0392，上调79个基 点。 他表示，美联储降息将继续主导美元指数走势。尽管明年美联储降息节奏需视美国经济后续走势而定， 但在新任美联储主席有可能态度偏"鸽"、更偏向用货币政策来保增长的情况下，降息幅度或超过今年9 月的点阵图预测。 "从2019年和2024年经验来看，美元指数在降息兑现后，均有所反弹，但在数月后转向下行。若以此类 推，特别是再考虑到美联储的降息空间或明显大于其他非美央行，美元指数的下行趋势或大致于明年一 季度或二季度正式开启。同时，美国经济仍领跑主要发达经济体，对于美元有支撑。"温彬说。 申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟认为，10月中旬以来，人民币经历了一波快速升值，但结汇率并没有显 著走高。其团队研报分析称，10月至11月，在"三价合一"的背景下，央行重启逆周期因子、不断调升的 中间价对升值有一定引导。而12月 ...

Group 1 - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate broke the 7.02 mark, reaching a high of 7.01425, marking a new high since October 2024 [1] - The onshore RMB to USD exchange rate closed at 7.0287, up 95 basis points from the previous trading day, also a new high since October 2024 [1] - Analysts attribute the RMB appreciation to a weaker USD and seasonal factors at year-end, with the USD index dropping below 97 following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The central economic work conference emphasized maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level for the fourth consecutive year, aiming to prevent excessive fluctuations [2] - The market's focus is shifting from a single-direction judgment to concerns about the volatility and stability of the exchange rate as it approaches the critical 7.0 level [2] - For foreign trade enterprises, it is crucial to focus on profit realization and cash flow management amidst exchange rate uncertainties, suggesting strategies like phased settlement and reasonable profit locking [2]

离岸人民币兑美元升破7 . 0大关，最高触及6.9985，为2024年以来首次。 此外， 在岸人民币兑美元升破7.01关口，创2024年9月27日以来新高。 "近期人民币升值行情，是外部压力趋缓、内部韧性增强、政策精准调控与市场预期转向 等多种因素共同作用的结果。"国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟表示。 庞溟分析，本轮人民币升值的直接推动力，来自美元环境的转变。市场预期，伴随美联储 继续开展降息，将进一步压制美元长期走势，为人民币提供外部升值空间。 欢迎分享给你的朋友！ 出品 | 中国能源报（c n e n e rg y） 对于人民币汇率升破7元关口，庞溟表示，预计汇率中枢将围绕7元关口双向波动、稳中 偏强运行，单边快速行情的概率不高。 国泰研究报告分析，未来人民币汇率与美元指数的脱钩将成为常态，人民币汇率破7具有 基本面和政策端的双重基础。不过也需要关注基本面边际变化，中长期看，基本面才是支 撑汇率走强的核心变量。 多位专家表示，展望2026年，人民币汇率有望保持温和升值。 中信证券首席经济学家明明 表示，2026年美元指数偏弱运行趋势或延续，央行稳汇率政 策张弛有度，增强人民币汇率韧性，人民币汇率有 ...

跨境电商卖家，大概是对汇率波动最敏感的人群之一，毕竟人民币升值贬值，直接意味着利润增长货值缩水。 与此同时，大洋彼岸，美元指数跌破100，美联储降息预期升温是主要推动力。今年美联储已经降息3次，而且美国的通胀数据也比预期好些，这就进一步推 动了降息预期。 最后，年底季节性结汇需求增加，进一步加速人民币升值，成为支撑人民币升值的核心因素，进一步推动人民币走强。 关注汇率政策，把握结汇时机，减少汇率损失，仍是2026年跨境电商卖家们应关注的重要课题。 汇率的剧烈变动，牵动着每一位跨境电商卖家的神经。 2025年最后一个月底，人民币汇率升破7.0大关，有人看到利润缩水，有人发现新机遇，这场汇率变局中，跨境电商是被动承压还是主动破局？ 12月25日，离岸人民币对美元汇率升破7.0整数关口，为2024年9月以来首次。截至当日，离岸人民币今年累计升值已达4.6%，在岸人民币也逼近7.0关口， 年内累计升值4%。 人民币升值意味着出口企业结汇时同等美元收入能兑换的人民币减少，直接挤压利润空间。有跨境电商卖家测算过，人民币每升值1%，企业利润就减少相 应比例，对今年关税战下本就微利的行业更是雪上加霜。 ...

Group 1 - The offshore RMB against the US dollar has surpassed the "7" mark for the first time since October 2024, indicating a significant strengthening of the currency [1] - On the same day, the onshore RMB also rose above 7.01, reaching a new high since late September 2024 [1] - The People's Bank of China reported that the central parity rate for the RMB against the US dollar was set at 7.0392, an increase of 79 basis points from the previous trading day, marking a new high since October 2024 [1] Group 2 - Factors contributing to the recent strengthening of the RMB include reduced external pressures, enhanced internal resilience, precise policy adjustments, and a shift in market expectations [1] - The weakening of the US dollar index, driven by the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting phase, has led to a passive appreciation of major non-USD currencies, including the RMB [1] - The resilience of China's economic fundamentals, particularly the unexpected performance of exports and the attractiveness of the capital market, has provided internal support for the exchange rate [1] Group 3 - Seasonal increases in corporate demand for currency settlement towards the end of the year are also contributing to the strengthening of the RMB [1] - Analysts advise foreign trade enterprises to avoid betting on unilateral exchange rate trends and to utilize foreign exchange derivatives such as options and futures to manage exchange rate risks [1]

12月25日盘中，离岸人民币对美元汇率续创15个月以来新高，升破7.0元关口。 Wind数据显示，截至25日10:29，离岸人民币对美元汇率报6.9999元，较前收盘价上涨77个基点，盘中 最高报6.9981元，升破7元关口。 图片来源：Wind 在岸人民币方面，Wind数据显示，截至25日10:28，该市场汇率报7.0073元，较前收盘价上涨88个基 点，盘中最高报7.0061元。 国泰海通证券研究报告分析，未来人民币汇率与美元指数的脱钩将成为常态，人民币汇率破7具有基本 面和政策端的双重基础。不过也需要关注基本面边际变化， 中长期看，基本面才是支撑汇率走强的核 心变量。 多位专家表示， 展望2026年，人民币汇率有望保持温和升值。 图片来源：Wind "近期人民币升值行情，是外部压力趋缓、内部韧性增强、政策精准调控与市场预期转向等多种因素共 同作用的结果。"国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟表示。 庞溟分析，本轮人民币升值的直接推动力，来自美元环境的转变。市场预期，伴随美联储继续开展降 息，将进一步压制美元长期走势，为人民币提供外部升值空间。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，临近年底，企业结汇需求增加 ...