以"五个必须"引领做好新形势下经济工作。"五个必须"即必须充分 挖掘经济潜能，必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，必须做到既"放得活" 又"管得好"，必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，必须以苦练内功来 应对外部挑战。会议把"必须充分挖掘经济潜能"放在首位，显示了"在质 的有效提升上取得更大突破"的决心。 2025 年 12 月 12 日 宏观研究/事件点评 投资要点： 【山证宏观】2024 年中央经济工作会议 事件：12 月 10 日至 11 日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行，会议总结 2025 年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署 2026 年经济工作。 宏观 着力推进质的有效提升 ——2025 年 12 月中央经济工作会议解读 分析师： 我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，实现向新向优发展。2025 年我国经 济增速、居民就业、收入相对稳定，企业利润波动修复，资本市场稳健运行。 结构上看，最终消费支出对 GDP 的拉动较为平稳，其中"以旧换新"政策 驱动的耐用品消费增速领跑，服务消费则展现出更强的韧性；设备更新投资 及高端化转型带动的高技术领域投资是支撑制造业投资的核心。同时，房地 产、地方政府债务等重点领域风险化 ...

"在有效需求不足、物价持续低迷的背景下，明年降准降息可期，结构性货币政策工具有望持续发 力。"管涛表示。此外，通过完善利率自律机制、综合治理金融体系的内卷式竞争、建立健全做好金 融"五篇大文章"的体制机制，能够引导金融资源更多支持科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域，进一步畅 通货币政策传导。 中央经济工作会议还指出，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 "在内外部不确定因素综合影响下，明年人民币汇率有望延续双向波动态势。"管涛表示，这是中央经济 工作会议连续第四年强调"保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定"，体现了既要防范汇率过度贬 值、也要防范汇率过度升值的政策取向，有助于遏制外汇市场的顺周期单边羊群效应，为明年推动经济 持续回升创造一个平稳的外汇金融环境。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 范子萌）中央经济工作会议指出，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促 进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保 持流动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重 点领域。 对此，中银证券全球首席经济学家管 ...

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张智 北京报道 在政治局会议提出"继续实施更加积极的财政政策"基础上，12月10日至11日召开的中央经济工作会议， 对财政重点发力和政策方向做了进一步工作部署。 本次中央经济工作会议延续了"实施更加积极的财政政策"的提法。会议提出，保持必要的财政赤字、债 务总规模和支出总量，加强财政科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策。重视解 决地方财政困难，兜牢基层"三保"底线。 中泰证券研究所政策组首席分析师杨畅对《华夏时报》记者表示，这样的提法，表示"必选项"的宏观政 策或保持相对稳健。与此同时，会议延续了前期政治局会议"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"的相关表 述，也充分表明，在继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策的基础上，还存在相机抉择的 可能性，一旦经济出现明显波动，通过增量政策实现逆周期和跨周期的调节，确保经济平稳运行。 远东资信研究院副院长、首席宏观研究员张林也对《华夏时报》记者表示，与去年会议"加大财政支出 强度"的表述不同，本次会议在表述口吻上相对弱化，预计2026年全国两会公布的预算赤字大概率仍为 4%，对应约5.9万亿元财政赤字，地 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the importance of financial support for expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises, indicating a clear direction for financial work in 2026 [1][3]. Financial Policy Direction - The conference highlights the need for a proactive fiscal policy, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels, while optimizing fiscal expenditure structure and addressing local fiscal difficulties [5][6]. - It is projected that the new government debt scale for 2026 may increase to approximately 12.5 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate maintained at around 4.0%, reflecting an increase of about 200 billion yuan from the previous year [6]. Monetary Policy Approach - A moderately loose monetary policy will continue, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery, with flexible use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [6][7]. - The emphasis on price levels has increased, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in November, indicating a potential for further monetary easing [6]. Key Economic Tasks - The conference identifies eight key tasks for economic work, with a focus on domestic demand as the primary driver for economic growth in 2026 [10]. - Specific actions include implementing measures to boost consumption, such as increasing funding for consumption from 300 billion yuan to 500 billion yuan, and expanding support for service consumption [11]. Investment and Innovation - The conference aims to stabilize investment by increasing central budget investment and optimizing the use of special bonds, which is expected to enhance market expectations and restore overall investment willingness [11]. - Emphasis is placed on innovation-driven growth, with a focus on developing a technology finance system that supports technological innovation and industry development [12]. Financial Institution Reform - The conference calls for deepening the reform of small and medium financial institutions to enhance their competitiveness and mitigate risks, which is a crucial part of the financial supply-side structural reform [12][13]. - Specific measures include promoting mergers and restructuring of rural small and medium banks to improve their service adaptability and competitiveness [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 emphasized the importance of economic work in the context of national rejuvenation and modernization, with a focus on high-quality development and effective macroeconomic policies [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Policy and Strategy - The conference highlighted the need for a more proactive fiscal policy to address external shocks and internal risks, maintaining policy strength and continuity [4]. - A moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented to support stable economic growth and financial market stability [4]. - The "Five Musts" were introduced as essential guidelines for economic work, emphasizing the need to explore economic potential, combine policy support with reform innovation, and balance investment in physical and human capital [2][3]. Group 2: Regional Implementation and Development - Local leaders, such as the Mayor of Shanghai and the Secretary of Qinghai Province, expressed commitment to implementing the conference's directives, focusing on enhancing domestic demand, fostering new productive forces, and promoting high-quality development [2][3]. - Specific regional strategies include developing modern industrial systems, integrating renewable energy with traditional industries, and prioritizing ecological and green development [3][6]. Group 3: Key Tasks for Economic Work - The conference outlined eight key tasks for the upcoming year, including strengthening domestic markets, driving innovation, enhancing high-quality development, and ensuring coordinated regional growth [5]. - Emphasis was placed on addressing current development challenges while maintaining a long-term focus on stability and growth [5].

新华财经北京12月12日电（记者翟卓）12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行，分析当前经济 形势并部署2026年工作。会议强调"要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策""灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政 策工具""保持流动性充裕"等。 再综合考虑明年经济金融形势以及物价走势，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青判断，2026年政策性降息幅 度或达0.2至0.3个百分点，降准幅度有望达到1个百分点。 "若从稳定明年一季度宏观经济运行等角度出发，不排除今年底或明年初就有降息降准落地的可能。而 着眼于推动房地产市场止跌回稳，2026年还有可能引导5年期以上贷款市场报价利率（LPR）单独下 行。"王青说。 业内专家表示，总的来看，货币政策延续了"适度宽松"基调，降准降息仍然可期，但也会更加注重"相 机抉择"以提高实施质效，结构性货币政策工具或再度"量增价降"，政策落地成效则有望成为下阶段宏 观政策部门的主要关注对象。 ——延续"适度宽松"政策基调强调"灵活高效"降准降息 会议明确，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。"该表述延续了去年中央经济工作会议基调，表明我国 在'十五五'开局之年仍需以适度宽松的货币金融环境支持实体经济高质量发展。 ...

新华社北京12月11日电 题：坚定信心乘势而进 全力实现"十五五"良好开局——与会同志谈贯彻落 实中央经济工作会议精神 新华社记者 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行，习近平总书记出席会议并发表重要讲话。会议期 间，部分与会同志接受新华社记者采访，畅谈对会议精神的学习认识和下一步工作打算。 大家一致表示，习近平总书记站在强国建设、民族复兴的战略高度，深刻洞察国际国内形势，对做 好经济工作的规律性认识不断深化，对"十五五"开局之年经济工作的战略部署指向明确，为开创中国式 现代化新局面提供了根本遵循。全党全国各族人民将进一步坚定发展信心、凝聚发展共识，真抓实干、 奋发有为，不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头。 今年是"十四五"规划收官之年，也是中国式现代化进程中具有重要意义的一年。以习近平同志为核 心的党中央团结带领全党全国各族人民迎难而上、奋力拼搏，坚定不移贯彻新发展理念、推动高质量发 展，统筹国内国际两个大局，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，经济社会发展主要目标将顺利完成。 会议要求，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期 调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。 "会议对明年 ...

Group 1 - The core message of the Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the importance of confidence and collective effort to achieve a good start for the "14th Five-Year Plan" and to promote Chinese-style modernization [1][2] - The conference highlighted the need for a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy to address external shocks and internal risks [4][5] - Key tasks for the upcoming year include enhancing domestic demand, fostering innovation, and ensuring high-quality development through coordinated efforts across various sectors [5][6] Group 2 - The "Five Musts" proposed during the conference serve as essential guidelines for economic work, focusing on maximizing economic potential and balancing policy support with reform [2][3] - Local leaders expressed commitment to implementing the conference's directives, aiming to build modern industrial systems and promote green development [3][6] - The emphasis on maintaining a strong domestic market and driving new growth engines aligns with the broader goals of sustainable and inclusive economic development [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 in Beijing outlines key tasks for China's economic policy direction for the coming year, focusing on real estate, investment consumption, and capital markets. Group 1: Consumer and Domestic Market - The conference emphasizes the need to address restrictions on consumer spending, including increasing disposable income and removing unreasonable limitations in the consumption sector [2] - A strong domestic market is prioritized, with a focus on creating a virtuous cycle by reducing debts owed to businesses and taxes [2] Group 2: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy is confirmed, indicating that the current economic recovery needs to be solidified [3][4] - The fiscal deficit rate is expected to remain around 4% next year, with an emphasis on maintaining adequate liquidity and institutional innovation [4] - The combination of fiscal expansion and reduced costs in monetary policy is crucial for enhancing policy transmission efficiency [4] Group 3: Real Estate Policy - The focus on "de-stocking" will return to the core of real estate policy, with strategies tailored to local conditions, such as controlling supply and promoting the purchase of existing homes for affordable housing [5][12] - The emphasis on managing supply in cities with excess inventory aims to stabilize housing prices and mitigate risks [12] Group 4: Investment Focus - The conference highlights the importance of combining investments in physical assets with investments in human capital, such as intellectual property and R&D [6][7] - This shift indicates a significant adjustment in fiscal spending towards education, healthcare, and social welfare, promoting consumption and expanding domestic demand [7] Group 5: Capital Market Reforms - The conference continues to focus on comprehensive reforms in capital market financing, aiming to enhance the market's role in supporting the real economy [8][10] - There is a need to improve the investment function of capital markets, which includes developing top-tier investment institutions and increasing long-term capital inflow [10] - The reforms are seen as essential for fostering a virtuous cycle between technology, industry, and capital [9]

Economic Outlook - The central economic work conference highlighted the need for a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining a fiscal deficit rate around 4% and a deficit scale of approximately 5.88 trillion yuan[4] - The economic growth target for 2026 is expected to remain around 5%, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations[2] Fiscal Policy - The government plans to continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy, with an emphasis on optimizing fiscal expenditure structure and addressing local fiscal difficulties[4] - New local government special bonds are projected to be around 4.4 trillion yuan, excluding a 2 trillion yuan debt replacement quota[4] Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy will be maintained, with expectations of a 20 basis points interest rate cut and a 0.5% reserve requirement ratio reduction in 2026[6] - The growth rates for social financing and M2 are anticipated to be approximately 8% and 7.5%, respectively, with M1 growth expected to exceed the compound growth rate of the past two years[6] Domestic Demand - The focus will be on domestic demand, with policies aimed at enhancing consumer capacity and increasing the supply of quality goods and services[7] - Investment strategies will include stabilizing investment levels and optimizing the management of local government special bonds[7] Innovation and Reform - Emphasis on innovation-driven growth, with plans to strengthen the role of enterprises in innovation and improve the protection of intellectual property rights in emerging fields[8] - The conference called for deepening reforms to eliminate "involutionary" competition and promote win-win development among platform enterprises[8] Real Estate Market - The strategy for the real estate market will prioritize stability, with measures to control supply, reduce inventory, and encourage the purchase of existing homes for affordable housing[9] - The government aims to reform the housing provident fund system and promote the construction of quality housing[9] Risk Management - Continuous efforts will be made to manage and mitigate risks in key areas, including local government debt and the real estate sector, to prevent systemic risks[10] - The importance of maintaining social stability and economic growth while addressing potential external challenges was emphasized[10]