根据公开数据显示，2025年12月25日， 离岸人民币对美元汇率最高触及6.9985元 ，升破7元大关。此外在岸人民币兑美元升破7.01关口，最高 触及7.0061元。 相关专家表示近期人民币升值行情，是外部压力趋缓、内部韧性增强、政策精准调控与市场预期转向等多种因素共同作用的结果。本轮人民 币升值的直接推动力，来自美元环境的转变。市场预期，伴随美联储继续开展降息，将进一步压制美元长期走势，为人民币提供外部升值空 间。 人民币兑美元汇率中间价走势图表 来源：人民银行 来源丨根据公开信息整理 编辑丨兰银帆 审核丨许晨辉 往期回顾 在风格上 既可以是分析研判式的文稿,也可以是解读评论型的文稿, 既可以建言献策经济金融理论与实践,也可以归纳总结新经 济金融模式与案例。 在形式上 无需复杂的理论与计量模型,无需过多的图形与数据表格, 无需臃肿的注释与参考文献,一句话,我们不需要学术性的 论文,但我们希望您的观点、结论和判断建立在扎实的学术 基础和理论基础之上。 Review of Past Articles - 等你来投！《清华金融评论》2026年1月刊 "十五五"开局：长短协同 保持经济增长在合理区间 等你来投！《 ...

强升回归！ 据百度股市通行情，今日 （12月25日） 上午，离岸人民币兑美元升破7大关，一度触及6.9920，这也是2024年 9月以来首次。同时，在岸人民币兑美元升破7.01元关口，现报7.0068，创2024年9月27日以来新高。 自2023年5月以来的两年半多时间里，人民币对美元汇率只在2024年9月25日短暂进入过"6"字头，当时离岸人 民币汇率盘中最高触及 6.9949 。自2025年4月以来，人民币兑美元持续走强，累计升值约6%。 相较而言，人民币今年在亚洲货币当中处于强势。专业人士认为，年底的结汇效应是主因。虽然从数据看，11 月的结汇率并未出现大幅上行，但在整年巨大贸易顺差的加持下，12月待结汇企业似乎开始提前抢跑。体现在 盘面上，USDCNH上涨乏力，每当反弹30—50点都会快速回落，并逐步创新低。交易量也开始释放，越升值 越犹豫的心态开始转变。 另外，市场对于明年人民币一致预期也非常强烈。英大证券认为，人民币汇率在经历2年半的"筑底"阶段后， 2026年大概率迎来升值的"主升浪"。人民币汇率走势具有3—4年左右的周期性，当前已进入升值阶段的初期， 技术形态显示有望突破前期压力位，形成明确升 ...

2025.12. 25 本文字数：1465，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 12月25日，离岸人民币对美元升破7.0关口，为2024年9月以来首次；在岸人民币最高升至7.0061。 Wind数据显示，截至25日10时35分，在岸人民币对美元汇率报7.0063，日内升值幅度为0.12%；离 岸人民币对美元汇率报6.9976，日内升值幅度为0.14%。 当天，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民 币7.0392元，相较前一交易日中间价7.0471元，调升79个基点，续创2024年10月来新高。 从后续走势看，美元指数或仍有阶段性下跌空间，但明年大概率呈现先跌后涨的走势。基于此，他认 为，这意味着，在美元阶段性下跌期间，人民币存在升值可能；一旦美元开启反弹，人民币升值动力 就会减弱，甚至可能重新走弱。 其次，从国内经济基本面来看，当前也缺乏支撑人民币持续走强的 基础。 尽管中国经济展现出一定韧性，但通缩压力、房地产市场下行压力、居民消费及固定资产投 资相对低迷等问题仍存在。而在全球外汇市场中，基本面才是决定汇率走势的核心因素。 12月召开的中央经济工作会议 ...

临近年末，外汇市场波澜再起。2025年12月25日，离岸人民币对美元汇率升穿7.0这一关键心理关口，最低触及6.99853元，为2024年以来的首次。与此同 时，人民币对美元中间价连续调升，于25日报7.0392，同样创下逾一年新高。 回顾2025年全年，人民币对美元走出了"先抑后扬、震荡走升"的曲线。年初，离岸人民币以7.27附近开局，随后受美联储"鹰派"立场影响，于4月8日触及 年内低点7.42879。转折发生在下半年，随着美联储降息路径日益明晰，美元指数自高位回落，人民币随之走强。9月17日，离岸人民币突破7.1关口。进入 12月，升值步伐明显加快，12月15日单日下跌超百点，23日击穿7.02，最终在25日触及6.99853的阶段性高点。 "7.0"这一整数关口，在人民币汇率历史上始终承载着重要的心理意义和技术意义。它不仅是市场情绪的"温度计"，也常常是衡量货币强弱转换的关键阈 值。自2023年5月以来，人民币汇率已持续在7.0上方运行逾一年半。此次年末强势叩关，无疑为市场增添了巨大悬念。 此番人民币走强，并非单一因素所致，而是外部环境变化、内部季节性需求与市场情绪转换共同作用的结果。 首要推力来自美 ...

东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，临近年底，企业结汇需求增加，带动人民币季节性走强；特别是近期人民币 持续走强后，前期累积的结汇需求有可能加速释放。 "人民币持续升值，会增大国内资本市场对外资的吸引力，直接增加外资的汇兑收益。就当前来说，汇市走强有助 于提振国内资本市场信心。"王青说。 赵庆明认为，一轮持续的升值行情，需满足两个关键条件。 12月25日，离岸人民币对美元升破7.0关口，为2024年9月以来首次；在岸人民币最高升至7.0061。 Wind数据显示，截至25日10时35分，在岸人民币对美元汇率报7.0063，日内升值幅度为0.12%；离岸人民币对美 元汇率报6.9976，日内升值幅度为0.14%。 当天，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币7.0392元， 相较前一交易日中间价7.0471元，调升79个基点，续创2024年10月来新高。 汇管信息科技研究院副院长赵庆明对第一财经表示，近期人民币走强从国际外汇市场角度看，驱动因素是美元走 弱。自11月下旬以来，美元指数跌幅约3%，非美元货币普遍走高，人民币涨幅与美元贬值幅度基本对应，体现出 汇率的"跷跷板 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB against the US dollar has reached a 15-month high, breaking the 7.0 yuan mark, driven by various factors including reduced external pressures, enhanced internal resilience, precise policy adjustments, and shifting market expectations [1][3]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - As of December 25, the offshore RMB was reported at 6.9999 yuan per US dollar, up 77 basis points from the previous close, with an intraday high of 6.9981 yuan [1]. - The onshore RMB was reported at 7.0073 yuan per US dollar, increasing by 88 basis points from the previous close, with an intraday high of 7.0061 yuan [4]. - Analysts suggest that the recent RMB appreciation is primarily driven by a changing dollar environment, with expectations of continued Fed rate cuts suppressing the dollar's long-term outlook, thus providing room for RMB appreciation [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook and Expert Opinions - Experts predict that the RMB exchange rate may maintain a moderate appreciation trend towards 2026, influenced by a weaker dollar index and stable monetary policy from the central bank [6]. - The core variables affecting the exchange rate in 2026 are expected to be the dollar's performance and changes in US-China trade relations, with a potential for the RMB to continue appreciating moderately due to narrowing interest rate differentials [6]. - The analysis indicates that the decoupling of the RMB exchange rate from the dollar index may become a norm, supported by both fundamental and policy factors [3].

【导读】离岸人民币兑美元升破7.0 制作：舰长 审核：陈墨 版权声明 在岸人民币兑美元升破7.01关口，创2024年9月27日以来新高。截至发稿，报7.007。 | < ロ | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | USDCNY.IB | | | | | 7.0070 | | 前收 | 7.0161 | 开盘 | 7.0150 | | -0.0091 | -0.13% | 季节 | 7.0070 | 买入 | 7.0068 | | 最高 | 7.0170 | 今年来 | -4.00% | 20日 | -1.04% | | 最低 | 7.0053 | 10日 | -0.72% | 60日 | -1.61% | | સ્ત્રે B4 | 五日 | 日K | 周K | 月K | 更多 ◎ | | 鹽加 | | | | | | | 7.0261 | | | | | 0.14% | | 7.0161 | | | | | 0.00% | | | | | | | -0.14% | | 9:30 | 13:45 | 18:15 ...

此外，在岸人民币对美元升破7.01关口，创2024年9月以来新高，年内累计升值4%。 【大河财立方消息】12月25日，离岸人民币对美元汇率升破7.0大关，这是时隔近15个月首次。今年以来，离岸人民币对美元汇率累计升值达到4.6%。 | く ロ | 美元兑离岸人民币 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | USDCNH.FX | | | 6.99750 | 前收 7.0 | | | -0.01010 -0.14% | 卖出 6.99806 买入 6.9 | | | 最高 7.01200 | 今年来 -4.63% 20 日 -1 | | | 最低 6.99600 | 10 日 -0.89% 60 日 -1 | | | 分时 | 五日 日Ｋ 周Ｋ 月Ｋ 更多 | | | 叠加 | | 均价:-- | | 7.01920 | | No. of the U. 7 . 10. 017 . 10. 017 . 10. 017 . 10. 01.7 . 10. 01.7 . 10. 0. 7. 20. | | | | 22:10 6.9976 | | 7.00760 | | 22:10 6.99750 22: ...

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Overview - In November, the average daily trading volume in the interbank foreign exchange market decreased to $191.46 billion, a year-on-year decline of 2.57% and a month-on-month decline of 6.69% [1] - The average daily trading volume for the RMB foreign exchange market was $146.23 billion, down 5.11% year-on-year [1] - The RMB to USD exchange rate strengthened, breaking through the 7.12 to 7.08 levels, reaching a year-to-date high of 7.0794 by the end of November [1][3] Group 2: USD Index and Interest Rate Expectations - The USD index experienced fluctuations, initially maintaining a narrow range due to cautious Fed rate cut expectations, but later fell to 99.45 by the end of November, a decrease of 0.35% from the previous month [2] - The market's risk aversion increased mid-month, leading to a temporary rise in the USD index above 100 points, but it subsequently declined as Fed officials indicated support for rate cuts [2][3] Group 3: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB to USD exchange rate showed a strong upward trend, with the onshore RMB closing at 7.0794, appreciating 0.48% from the previous month, while the offshore RMB was at 7.0754, appreciating 0.58% [3] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index rose to 97.92, reflecting a 0.32% appreciation from the previous month [3] Group 4: Derivatives Market Activity - In November, the average daily trading volume of RMB foreign exchange options was $5.44 billion, an increase of 3.93% month-on-month [4] - The implied volatility of RMB to USD options showed a downward trend initially, followed by an increase, indicating a rise in short-term appreciation expectations for the RMB [4] Group 5: Swap Market Trends - The one-year swap points decreased by 9 basis points to -1296 basis points by the end of November, influenced by market supply and demand factors [5] - The spread between onshore and offshore one-year swap points narrowed to around 50 basis points, the lowest in three months [6] Group 6: Dollar Liquidity Conditions - Domestic dollar liquidity tightened slightly in November, while offshore dollar liquidity remained tight, with the SOFR rate fluctuating between 3.91% and 4.12% [7] - The overnight dollar borrowing rate in the domestic market rose to 3.87% by the end of November, reflecting a tightening trend [7] Group 7: Market Sentiment - The sentiment index for dollar borrowing funds showed increased volatility, rising from 54 points to 57 points in the first half of the month, before falling back to 46 points by the end of November [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to the weakening of the US dollar index and increased demand for currency exchange by enterprises as the year-end approaches, which may enhance the attractiveness of China's capital markets to foreign investors [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate Movements - On December 25, the People's Bank of China announced that the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was set at 7.0392, a significant increase of 79 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - The RMB's central parity rate had already risen by 52 basis points on December 24, marking the highest appreciation since September 30, 2024 [1]. - The offshore RMB hit a low of 7.0032 against the US dollar, while the onshore RMB also fell to 7.0133, indicating a strong upward trend towards the "7.0" threshold [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Strength - The RMB's strength in December is primarily driven by two factors: the weakening of the US dollar index, which fell below 100 due to market expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, and increased seasonal demand for currency exchange from enterprises as the year-end approaches [1][3]. - The recent appreciation of the RMB has also boosted market sentiment, further pushing up the RMB's value [1]. Group 3: Implications for Trade and Investment - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to increase foreign exchange gains for foreign investors, thereby enhancing confidence in the domestic capital market [3]. - For foreign trade enterprises, the recent RMB appreciation may reduce exchange profits for exporters while lowering costs for importers [3]. - Experts advise foreign trade companies to avoid betting on a one-sided RMB exchange rate trend and to utilize foreign exchange derivatives to manage exchange rate risks effectively [3]. Group 4: Regulatory Outlook and Future Expectations - The financial regulatory authorities have maintained a clear stance on stabilizing the exchange rate, emphasizing the importance of keeping the RMB at a reasonable and balanced level [3][4]. - The market anticipates that the RMB may continue to approach the 7.0 threshold in the short term, with a possibility of temporarily breaking below it, but a sustained one-sided appreciation is not expected in the medium to long term [3][4].