2025中国发展高层论坛：我国将持续深化供给侧结构性改革 宏观•要闻 为期两天的中国发展高层论坛2025年年会23日在北京钓鱼台国宾馆举行。中央财经委员会办公室分管日常 工作的副主任、中央农村工作领导小组办公室主任韩文秀在年会上表示，我国将持续深化供给侧结构性改 革，不断更新旧动能，发展新动能。 央行：择机降准降息 中国人民银行货币政策委员会召开2025年第一季度例会。会议研究了下阶段货币政策的主要思路，建议加 大货币政策调控强度，提高货币政策调控前瞻性、针对性、有效性，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场 运行情况，择机降准降息。 商务部部长会见多家美企 3月21日，商务部部长王文涛会见美国礼来制药、美国博通半导体等访华的外企高管。未来一段时间，还 有十几位跨国公司高管将到访商务部，其中美国企业将占约三分之二。 金融•证券 中国结算：暂免收取部分债券登记结算费用 3月21日晚间，中国证券登记结算公司（下称"中国结算"）发文出台三项举措，包括允许信用债ETF试点 开展交易所质押式回购，拓宽受信用保护债券回购范围，暂免部分债券登记结算费用，进一步助力交易所 债券市场发展，更好支持中小民营企业债券融资。 证监会公布2 ...

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand as a key focus for economic growth in 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the interaction between boosting consumption and the domestic circulation economy, suggesting that enhancing consumer spending is essential for stabilizing and driving economic growth [3][4]. - It notes that consumer spending contributed 44.5% to GDP growth in 2024, surpassing the contributions from investment and net exports, thus underscoring the critical role of consumption in economic stability [7]. - The report identifies significant trends in consumption, including a shift from material to service-oriented spending and an increasing preference for quality and environmentally friendly products [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Interaction between Consumption and Domestic Circulation - The report discusses the necessity of a robust domestic circulation economy, where boosting consumption serves as a foundational element for expanding domestic demand and stabilizing economic growth [3][4]. 2. Current Characteristics of Consumption - In 2024, China's GDP reached 134.91 trillion yuan, with a 5% year-on-year growth, and retail sales of consumer goods totaled 48.34 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.5% increase [7]. - The report notes a clear trend towards service-oriented consumption, with per capita spending reaching 28,227 yuan, a 5.3% increase, and a notable rise in domestic travel and service consumption [8]. 3. Favorable Conditions for Boosting Consumption - The report emphasizes the need for coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to support consumption, including a projected 3 trillion yuan in special bonds for consumer goods replacement programs in 2025 [9][10]. - It highlights the importance of integrating industrial and regional policies to foster balanced economic development across different regions, thereby enhancing overall market vitality [11]. 4. Deepening Reforms and Optimizing the Business Environment - The report outlines ongoing supply-side structural reforms aimed at optimizing production capacity and enhancing innovation, with a focus on high-tech manufacturing growth [12]. - It stresses the need for a better business environment to stimulate market activity, including measures to prevent unhealthy competition and promote fair market practices [13].

2 0 2 5年《政府工作报告》中房地产相关篇幅较历史扩大，要求"持续用力推动房地产市场止跌企 稳"。而据证券时报，《政府工作报告》起草组成员陈昌盛在国新办吹风会提到："宏观调控重视 资产价格，把稳住楼市股市写进总体要求，这是第一次。"，"楼市股市是经济运行的重要风向 标，房地产是老百姓资产最大的一部分。楼市股市稳住了，就可以释放财富效应，也可以更好地 提振消费，更好地促进物价温和回升。"这些提法共同说明，止跌回稳指的主要就是推动房价止 跌和温和回升。房地产政策的主要目的是稳住老百姓的钱袋子，是提振社会消费，而不是推动房 地产产业链（尤其是开竣工）的复苏。当前，绝大多数城市的房价仍在下跌（尽管跌幅收窄，存 量房销售放量），这就意味着未来政策仍会积极有为。 文 ｜ 陈聪 孙明新 张全国 李俊波 李家明 通过学习政府工作报告和国新办的吹风会，我们认为严控增量、止跌回稳的政策，关键还是要稳住 资产价格，稳住居民信心。此外，报告专门强调要有效防范房企债务违约风险，也进一步助力房企 信用稳固。地方政府的土地出让金收入有望回升，地方对基建相关领域的拖欠款有望加快消化。部 分关键原材料（如水泥）的落后产能有望加快出清，服务 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% in the next six months [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of consolidation in the civil explosives industry, with a focus on transformation and upgrading to support internationalization [1]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Implementation Opinions" aimed at promoting the civil explosives industry towards high-end, intelligent, and green development, enhancing both quality and safety levels [3][4]. - By the end of 2027, the implementation opinions aim for widespread application of unmanned production lines in civil explosives, with a significant reduction in hazardous operations and an increase in industry concentration, forming 3 to 5 large enterprises with strong international competitiveness [4]. - The report emphasizes the continuous promotion of supply-side structural reforms, leading to further industry consolidation and the encouragement of cross-regional and cross-ownership mergers among civil explosive enterprises [4][5]. - The report also notes the encouragement of international cooperation, with civil explosive companies actively participating in the "Belt and Road" initiative and expanding exports of products like industrial electronic detonators [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The civil explosives industry plays a crucial role in national economic construction and social development, with strict regulatory measures in place due to the flammable and explosive nature of the products [6]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to continue consolidating, benefiting leading domestic enterprises, with a recommendation to focus on leading companies such as Yipuli [6].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 继 2 月钢铁行业出台新规范条件后，近期供给侧结构性改革、行业内卷式竞争被多方提及，涉及光伏、汽 车、电商等行业。 （一） 3 月 1 日，《求是》杂志发表总书记重要文章《经济工作必须统筹好几对重要关系》，其中提 到，"必须统筹好总供给和总需求的关系……持续深化供给侧结构性改革。要加快补上内需特别是消费短 板"。 （二） 2 月 25 日，市场监管总局召开企业公平竞争座谈会，光伏、电商、汽车行业 7 家企业参会，具体 包括天合光能、晶澳科技、隆基绿能、阿里集团、京东集团、北汽集团、奔驰集团。 （三） 2 月 27 日，国家能源局有关负责人表示，"光伏制造业的内卷式竞争仍未从根本上解决，国家能源 局正在配合国家发改委、工信部等部门研究制定和完善政策措施"。 近一周，其他值得关注的政策： （一）全国两会召开前，政治局会议讨论政府工作报告 ，提出"扩大国内需求，推动科技创新和产业创新融 合发展，稳住楼市股市"。 （二）总理调研科技创新工作 ...