Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, exceeding the 5% target, driven by effective domestic demand policies and optimized export structures[3] - The meeting acknowledged the current economic operation as stable with progress, while also recognizing ongoing risks and challenges[4] Policy Direction - The government will maintain a "steady progress" approach, emphasizing stability in employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations[4] - Fiscal policy will continue to be "more proactive," with a focus on accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency[4] - Monetary policy will emphasize "appropriate easing," ensuring ample liquidity and supporting sectors like technology innovation and small enterprises[4] Consumption and Investment - The meeting highlighted the importance of boosting consumption and expanding effective investment, particularly in service consumption and high-quality infrastructure projects[5] - Policies will be directed towards enhancing service consumption and stimulating private investment, with a focus on quality and effectiveness[5] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is transitioning from rapid growth to stable development, with a focus on improving existing stock rather than expanding new supply[8] - The government aims to support urban renewal and the transformation of old neighborhoods, with a target of 1 million units for renovation projects[9][10] Debt Management - There is a commitment to actively and prudently manage local government debt risks, with strict controls on new hidden debts and a focus on clearing local financing platforms[5] - The meeting emphasized the need for effective measures to mitigate local government debt pressures while ensuring orderly progress[5] Capital Market Stability - The government aims to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, reinforcing the positive momentum observed in recent market performance[5]

7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，决定今年10月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议，主要议程 是，中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作，研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议。会议分析研究当前 经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。会议通稿中与宏观政策和房地产相关的主要内容如下： 今年以来，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，各地区各部门积极作为、攻坚克难，加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策，我国经济运行稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效。主要经济指标表现良好，新质生产力积极发展，改革开放不断深化，重 点领域风险有力有效防范化解，民生兜底保障进一步加强，我国经济展现强大活力和韧性。 当前我国经济运行依然面临不少风险挑战，要正确把握形势，增强忧患意识，坚持底线思维，用好发展机遇、潜力和优势，巩 固拓展经济回升向好势头。 加快构建新发展格局，保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，有力促进国内国 际双循环，努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务，实现"十四五"圆满收官。 宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策 ...

中国商报（记者 王彤旭）今年以来，各地 "因城施策"出台相关措施推动房地产市场止跌回稳。其中，多地大力推进"好房子"建设，旨在有力有效稳预 期，激发房地产市场新活力。从统计数据来看，相关政策措施成效明显，上半年房地产市场虽有所波动，但总体上还是朝着止跌回稳的方向迈进。 展望下半年，中指研究院指数研究部总经理曹晶晶认为，下半年高品质项目入市有望带动核心城市新房市场保持平稳，预计城市之间及项目之间分化 行情将延续，"好城市+好房子"具备结构性机会，而市场全面止跌回稳仍需政策进一步加力。 "好房子"建设政策助力 加快构建房地产发展新模式，是适应我国房地产市场供求关系发生重大变化的新形势，着眼于破解房地产发展难题和防范风险、促进房地产市场平稳 健康发展的治本之策。业内人士表示，推进好房子建设和城市更新，是构建房地产发展新模式的"双引擎"。 5月1日，被业界称为"好房子"国家标准的《住宅项目规范》正式施行。其对层高、隔音等作出强制规定，对"好房子"建设提出了新的标准。这部具有 强制约束力的规范，标志着中国住宅建设从"有没有"转入"好不好"的关键转折。此后印发的《中共中央办公厅 国务院办公厅关于持续推进城市更新行 动的意 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability in China's economic landscape, particularly focusing on employment, enterprises, market stability, and consumer confidence. It highlights the need for proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to stimulate domestic demand and ensure the real estate market stabilizes and recovers [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Policy and Real Estate - The Central Political Bureau meeting did not specifically address the real estate market but maintained a consistent tone aimed at stabilizing the sector [3][4]. - The meeting underscored the need for high-quality urban renewal and the supply of "good houses" as crucial measures for stabilizing the real estate market. This follows the Central Urban Work Conference held on July 15, which set a high-level agenda for urban development [4][6]. - Since the beginning of the year, both central and local governments have implemented measures tailored to individual cities, resulting in a noticeable improvement in the real estate market, with new and second-hand housing transactions showing positive growth [4][5]. Group 2: Urbanization and Housing Demand - China's urbanization is transitioning from rapid growth to stable development, with a focus on improving existing housing stock rather than expanding new construction. This shift is expected to support housing demand in key urban areas [5][6]. - The article discusses the potential for significant housing improvement demand due to the aging housing stock, with over 300 billion square meters of existing urban housing needing updates. This presents a substantial opportunity for the real estate sector [7][8]. - The emphasis on high-quality urban renewal and the iterative supply of "good houses" is anticipated to stimulate demand for new homes, creating a new price benchmark and achieving a dynamic balance in the real estate market [8].

内房股今日普跌，截至发稿，远洋集团(03377)跌6.67%，报0.126港元；融创中国(01918)跌5.17%，报 1.65港元；富力地产(02777)跌2.08%，报0.94港元。 消息面上，中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，会议指出，落实好中央城市工作会议精神，高质量开展 城市更新。中泰证券（600918）此前指出，中央城市工作会议强调城市发展已从"大规模增量扩张阶 段"进入"存量提质增效阶段"，提出了以推动城市高质量发展为主题、以坚持城市内涵式发展为主线、 以推进城市更新为重要抓手的总体部署。会议提出"加快构建房地产发展新模式，稳步推进城中村和危 旧房改造"，但并未出台强刺激举措，相关表述较为审慎中性。 美银证券此前发表研究报告称，预期今年上半年的行业盈利将同比下降25%，但由于存货减值幅度收 窄，预计全年盈利下降幅度将收窄至13%，又预计上半年开发利润率将下降1个百分点，平均值为 11%。该行计及第二季行业表现逊于预期后，将开发商今年的合同销售预测下调5%，意味着在高基数 下，下半年将同比下降16%。该行预计，受到利润率复苏所支持，该行预计2027财年内房行业盈利将会 复苏，但由于合同销售的复苏不 ...

Economic Data - The U.S. trade deficit in June narrowed to $86 billion, a decrease from previous figures[4] - India's preparation for potential U.S. tariffs ranging from 20% to 25% indicates significant trade tensions[4] - The IMF has raised China's economic growth forecast for this year by 0.8 percentage points[4] Market Performance - The average daily trading volume in Hong Kong's stock market increased by 118% year-on-year in the first half of the year[4] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 5.66 basis points to 3.867%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 8.75 basis points to 4.322%[4] Index Movements - The Nasdaq index closed at 21,098.29, down 0.38%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44,632.99, down 0.46%[5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,524.45, down 0.15%[5]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the need to enhance counter-cyclical fiscal adjustments and accelerate the issuance and utilization of ultra-long special government bonds [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy Measures - There is a call to coordinate policy tools to support the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries [1] - The government aims to support the development and expansion of emerging industries [1] - A focus on promoting consumption is highlighted as a key strategy to expand domestic demand [1] Group 2: Financial Support Initiatives - The introduction of fiscal interest subsidy policies for loans in key areas is proposed [1] - There is a push to support the acceleration of a new model for real estate development [1]

财长蓝佛安： 以促消费为重点支持扩大内需，进一步释放国内市场潜力 金十数据7月30日讯，财政部部长蓝佛安在学习时报刊文表示，以促消费为重点支持扩大内需，进一步 释放国内市场潜力。不断完善支持养老、育幼、文化、旅游等服务消费的政策体系。完善免税店政策， 推动免税商品零售业务健康有序发展。强化财政与金融政策协同联动，出台实施重点领域个人消费贷款 和服务业经营主体贷款财政贴息政策，更好满足消费需求。持续推进"两重"项目建设。支持加快构建房 地产发展新模式，实施城市更新行动，促进房地产市场持续健康发展。 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate industry, suggesting a stabilization and recovery phase following recent policy adjustments and market conditions [1][2][6]. Core Insights - The central government has emphasized the importance of urban development and housing quality, marking a shift from rapid expansion to enhancing existing stock, which is expected to create sustained demand in the real estate sector [2][4][6]. - The recent urban work conference highlighted seven key tasks aimed at optimizing urban systems and promoting high-quality urban development, which will benefit the real estate market [3][4][6]. - The report notes a significant increase in urbanization rates, with the urbanization rate rising from 57.3% in 2015 to 67% in 2024, indicating a growing population in urban areas that will support housing demand [3][4]. Market Tracking - In June 2025, new and second-hand housing prices showed a narrowing decline year-on-year, with new housing sales volume decreasing by 6.55% and sales value by 11.49% compared to the previous year, although there was a month-on-month increase [7][8]. - The land market has shown a trend of quality over quantity, with a decrease in land area sold but an increase in transaction value, indicating a preference for premium land parcels [8][9]. - The report highlights that the second-hand housing market is experiencing a "price for volume" strategy, with a notable increase in listings, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities, reflecting supply pressures [9]. Urban Renewal Initiatives - The report outlines that over 60,000 urban renewal projects were implemented in 2024, with an investment of approximately 2.9 trillion yuan, indicating a strong push towards urban revitalization [5][6]. - Policies supporting urban renewal are expected to accelerate, with specific financial allocations for pilot cities, enhancing the role of urban renewal in stabilizing investment and expanding domestic demand [5][6]. Financial Market Dynamics - The bond market for real estate companies has shifted to a net inflow, with increased trading activity in domestic bonds, particularly among state-owned enterprises, reflecting improved market confidence [11]. - The report notes that the financing environment for real estate companies is becoming more favorable, with expectations of strong repayment capabilities supported by shareholder backing [11]. Conclusion - The real estate industry is transitioning towards a new development model focused on quality improvement and urban renewal, supported by favorable government policies and a growing urban population, which is expected to stabilize and eventually enhance market conditions [6][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent Central Urban Work Conference marks a significant shift in China's urbanization strategy, moving from rapid growth to stable development and from large-scale expansion to quality improvement and efficiency enhancement [4][10] - The conference highlights the transition of urbanization from a rapid growth phase to a stable development phase, emphasizing quality, efficiency, and competitiveness over mere scale and speed [4][5] - The urban development is shifting from large-scale incremental expansion to a focus on optimizing existing resources and enhancing urban functions through new technologies and models [4][10] Group 2 - The concept of "group-style networked" development for modern urban clusters and metropolitan areas is introduced, emphasizing concentrated and efficient development around central cities [5][6] - The article outlines that the 19 urban clusters will serve as major growth poles, with population and industry concentration primarily occurring in these areas, while other regions will pursue differentiated development based on local conditions [6][12] - The "networked" aspect stresses the importance of connectivity between urban clusters through modern transportation and digital networks, facilitating the flow of economic factors [8][12] Group 3 - The conference reiterates the strategic role of county towns in urbanization, highlighting their importance in ensuring food security, ecological safety, and as key carriers for rural population migration [10][12] - The dual-track urbanization strategy aims to balance development between urban clusters and county towns, preventing excessive population concentration in mega-cities while promoting rural revitalization [12][16] Group 4 - A new model for real estate development is proposed, focusing on the classification, revitalization, and integration of existing housing resources, addressing the issue of idle and inefficient real estate [13][14] - The demand for affordable housing is driven by the urbanization of agricultural migrants, necessitating a better alignment between supply and demand in the housing market [14][16] - The article suggests implementing refined policies tailored to different cities to stimulate the market and enhance the utilization of existing housing stock [16]