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建筑板块景气度分化,传统与新型基建协同发力 | 投研报告
Core Viewpoint - The construction and decoration industry is experiencing a slowdown in fixed asset investment and new contract signings, with a focus on potential growth areas such as overseas construction, urban renewal, digital construction, and power engineering [2][5]. Investment Strategy - From January to October 2025, cumulative fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, while infrastructure investment increased by 1.5%, with a sequential decline of 1.8 percentage points [2]. - New contracts in the construction industry totaled 21.30 trillion yuan from January to September 2025, down 4.6% year-on-year, with a notable slowdown in the decline of new orders in the third quarter [2]. - The backlog of construction orders stood at 59.95 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, indicating that the decline in existing orders is less severe than that of new contracts [2]. Sector Performance - The construction decoration index rose by 6.8% from the beginning of 2025 to December 2, but underperformed compared to the broader market [2]. - The renovation and decoration service sector led the secondary market with a growth rate of 30.6% [2]. - The construction sector's allocation ratio was 0.62%, which is 0.94 percentage points lower than the industry standard [2]. Central Enterprises - The eight major central enterprises saw their new contracts remain stable in the first half of 2025, with overall revenue growth declining by 4.4% and net profit attributable to shareholders decreasing by 7.5% [3]. - Factors such as slowing infrastructure investment growth and prolonged repayment cycles due to local fiscal pressures have impacted the revenue of these enterprises [3]. Growth Opportunities - Overseas construction saw a cumulative completion amount of 134.18 billion USD from January to October 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, particularly in Belt and Road countries [4]. - Urban renewal projects are expected to be funded through various sources, with plans to start renovating 25,000 old urban communities, of which 21,700 have already commenced [4]. - Digital construction is being driven by new productivity, with a focus on comprehensive digital transformation across urban areas [4]. - The power engineering sector is anticipated to benefit from significant opportunities in water resources and environmental projects from 2025 to 2030 [4]. - Local government bond issuance has accelerated, with a total issuance of 6.49 trillion yuan from January to September 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 29.3% [4]. Investment Recommendations - The construction sector is expected to see a resonance of fundamentals, policies, and valuations, with a focus on marginal changes in overseas construction, urban renewal, digital construction, power engineering, and debt reduction [5]. - Recommended stocks include China Power Construction, China Energy Engineering, China Communications Construction, Tunnel Corporation, Metro Design, and Jianfa Heceng, particularly those with stable performance and low valuations [5].
昔日渔市蝶变“城市会客厅”——解码滨江城市更新
Hang Zhou Ri Bao· 2025-12-11 02:40
Core Viewpoint - The transformation of Pujiang Fishing Wharf into a cultural and recreational hub reflects the broader urban renewal efforts in Binjiang District, showcasing a successful model of integrating community needs with urban development [5][9][10]. Group 1: Urban Renewal and Development - Pujiang Fishing Wharf has evolved from a traditional fish market to a vibrant "city living room," attracting visitors with its scenic views and recreational facilities [5][7]. - Binjiang District has been recognized for its urban renewal projects, being the only area in the province to have projects selected for national recognition for two consecutive years [5][9]. - The systematic reconstruction of the riverside area aims to balance safety and accessibility, transforming it from a protective barrier into a lively public space [7][9]. Group 2: Community Engagement and Needs - The development of 12 unique rest stations along the riverside caters to diverse community needs, enhancing the area's appeal and functionality [7][8]. - The urban renewal strategy emphasizes a "people-centered" approach, addressing local demands and preferences through community consultations and democratic decision-making [9][10]. - The integration of various community services and amenities, such as cafes and cultural museums, reflects a commitment to enhancing the quality of life for residents and visitors alike [7][8]. Group 3: Future Community Planning - Binjiang has innovatively planned 46 future communities from 67 administrative communities, achieving full coverage and resource sharing [10]. - Ongoing projects, including the installation of elevators and the creation of pocket parks, align with the vision of future community development [10][11]. - The preservation of historical sites alongside modern developments illustrates a balanced approach to urbanization, maintaining cultural heritage while fostering innovation [11].
废弃建筑治理彰显城市智慧
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-12-11 00:10
日前,废弃工厂、烂尾楼宇、闲置校舍等各类废弃建筑成为社交媒体上的"热门打卡地"。相较于正 常使用的建筑,废弃建筑自带神秘气息,拥有较强的视觉冲击力和特有的荒凉感,容易激发怀旧情绪与 探索欲望。但频发的翻墙摔伤、高空坠落等事故,则给打卡者带来人身安全风险。 不少废弃建筑曾是城市发展的重要见证,回顾探访,有助于公众追溯城市历史。但随着部分场地在 短视频平台上的热度攀升,一些博主为博取关注,故意闯入高危区域;一些公众将其视为"冒险游戏", 低估真实风险;而平台为吸引流量,也倾向于推送这类内容,满足不少人对"禁忌空间"的猎奇心理。 加强正向引导,普及风险认知。通过真实事故案例开展警示教育,明确探险行为的法律与安全边 界,引导公众理性看待、合理开展。鼓励公众优先选择政府公示的活化项目,在安全合规的前提下感受 城市历史脉络。 "探废"乱象的背后,折射出废弃建筑管理的缺失。当前针对废弃建筑的治理仍面临诸多困境:产权 责任不清晰,治理主体缺失;国家层面尚无专门的认定、处置与拆除法规,治理缺乏依据,治理资金缺 口大,社会资本参与意愿低,种种原因导致许多废墟处于"无人管、无法管"的状态。 因此,强化源头治理与分类管控势在必行。相 ...
多省市定调 未来五年房地产发展路线图浮出
Core Viewpoint - The recent release of the 15th Five-Year Plan proposals by various provinces highlights the focus on real estate development, emphasizing risk mitigation, consumption promotion, urban renewal, and high-quality development during this transitional phase of the economy [1][4][11]. Group 1: Risk Mitigation and Consumption Promotion - The proposals stress the importance of preventing and resolving risks in the real estate sector, identifying it as a systemic risk alongside local government debt and small financial institutions [4]. - Shandong Province has proposed a mechanism for normalizing "white list" financing in real estate, indicating a policy shift towards improving financing structures [5]. - Several provinces, including Guangdong and Hubei, have included measures to promote housing consumption, reflecting its significance in driving overall consumption [6][7]. Group 2: Urban Renewal Initiatives - Urban renewal has been identified as a key strategy, with multiple provinces advocating for "in-depth urban renewal" and emphasizing the need for sustainable development models [9][10]. - Beijing's proposal includes comprehensive urban renewal strategies, focusing on the integration of resources and systematic updates to old neighborhoods [9]. - The emphasis on urban renewal reflects a shift from rapid expansion to enhancing existing urban areas, aligning with national urbanization goals [8][10]. Group 3: High-Quality Development - The concept of "high-quality development" is a recurring theme, with provinces like Shanxi and Shandong detailing specific institutional arrangements to support this goal [11][13]. - The establishment of foundational systems for real estate, such as safety inspections and quality management, is seen as essential for achieving high-quality outcomes [12][13]. - Differentiated policies based on local conditions are being proposed, indicating a tailored approach to real estate development across different regions [14][15].
以城市更新助力“稳楼市”
完整社区建设,旨在居民适宜的步行范围内(步行5~10分钟),按照完善的基本公共服务设施、健全 的便民商业服务设施、完备的市政配套基础设施、充足的公共活动空间、全覆盖的物业管理等,打造居 民归属感、认同感较强的居住社区。比如,就公共服务设施而言,其完整性就是要配备一个社区综合服 务站、幼儿园、托儿所、老年服务站和社区卫生服务站。再比如,老旧街区、老旧厂区、老旧火车站、 低效楼宇、传统商业设施等更新,推动建筑功能转换,在完善设施配套后,植入新业态、新功能、新场 景,为老旧区域注入新活力,也带动装饰装修、文旅流量、夜经济、创业创新等新经济兴起,既可提升 基层社区治理能力,也可激活服务消费和就业增长。 不久前,国务院以"深入推进以人为本的新型城镇化,着力构建城乡融合发展新格局"为主题,进行第十 七次专题学习。此次会上提出,要深入实施城市更新行动,把城市更新和消除安全隐患、稳楼市等工作 结合起来,扎实推进好房子建设和房地产高质量发展。 我国城市增长的动力,正在从大规模增量扩张转向存量提质增效为主,而城市更新则是城市增长动力转 换的切入点和抓手。城市更新最主要的任务,就是通过开展城市体检评估,从住房、到小区、到社区、 到 ...
城市更新不是“一建了之”
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-12-10 22:26
多元赋能。构建多元协同、可持续的资金保障体系。强化政府引导作用,优化财政资金投向,整合各类 专项补助,加大公共服务配套、历史文化保护、基础设施完善等财政支持。积极引导社会资本参与,制 定差异化扶持政策,通过特许经营、PPP、股权投资、资产证券化等多种模式,吸引企业、社会组织等 经营主体参与城市更新项目的投资、建设与运营,实现利益共享、风险共担。 精细运营。城市更新不是"一建了之",必须注重后期运营管理,实现"建设好"与"运营好"的有机统一。 建立"建管并重、长效运营"机制,明确运营主体、责任与标准,避免因"重建设、轻运营"导致的设施闲 置、功能弱化等问题。运用好数字化、智能化等手段,提升运营效能,搭建统一运营管理平台,实现精 细化、智能化管理。强化运营收益平衡,通过合理布局经营性业态、优化租金定价、发展配套产业等方 式,构建"公益性服务+经营性收益"良性模式,确保项目能够长期稳定运行,实现社会效益与经济效益 双赢。 协同治理。强化政府统筹协调职能,厘清部门职责,健全跨部门协同机制,破解审批繁琐、权责交叉等 堵点,提升决策与执行效能。充分尊重群众意愿,充分保障群众的知情权、参与权、表达权和监督权, 在规划、实施 ...
多省市定调未来5年房地产发展路线
21世纪经济报道· 2025-12-10 14:43
编辑丨张伟贤 近期,多个省市陆续发布关于国民经济和社会发展的第十五个五年规划建议(以下简称"'十五五'规划建议"),对"十五五"时期的经 济社会发展提出目标和要求,并做出工作部署。 记者丨张敏 在多个省市的"十五五"规划建议中,提出"统筹推进"房地产风险有序化解,并将房地产与地方政府债务、中小金融机构的风险,并 列为需严格防范的系统性风险。 值得注意的是, 山东省还提出,健全房地产"白名单"融资常态化机制, 体现出从融资端推进相关制度建设的政策思路。 房地产处于新旧动能转换关键阶段,又事关金融稳定与民生福祉,对这项工作的安排,备受各方关注。 21世纪经济报道记者梳理多个地方的"十五五"规划建议发现,对房地产相关工作的部署,主要体现在化解风险、促进消费、发力城 市更新、推动高质量发展等方面。其中,不少地方的提法颇有亮点。 广东省、重庆市、厦门市均在"十五五"规划建议中提出,实现更高水平住有所居, 体现出在住有所居的基础上,对供应制度、居住 品质和管理体系的更高要求。 贵州省强调,探索推进"四房联动",即"以旧换新促进二手房与商品房联动,以需定购促进保障房与商品房联动,以购代建促进安置 房与商品房联动"。贵州还因 ...
天津以城市更新推动高质量发展 “十四五”惠及53万户居民
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-12-10 13:12
天津以城市更新推动高质量发展 "十四五"惠及53万户居民 天津市住房城乡建设委主任蔺雪峰表示,下一步将坚持从全局谋划一域、以一域服务全局,一以贯之统 筹抓好"十项行动""三新""三量"和"大城三管"等工作,为全市"十五五"良好开局"添秤"助力。(完) 来源:中国新闻网 编辑:王永乐 广告等商务合作,请点击这里 中新网天津12月10日电 (记者 周亚强)天津市政府新闻办10日举行高质量完成"十四五"规划系列主题新 闻发布会——市住房城乡建设委专场。记者从会上获悉,"十四五"以来,天津系统推进城市更新行动, 累计改造老旧小区1061个,惠及居民53万户,城市面貌与生活品质同步提升。 图为新闻发布会现场。(天津市政府新闻办供图) 天津市住房城乡建设委二级巡视员侯学钢介绍,天津在城市更新工作中坚持"体检先行",构建了"体检 发现问题、更新解决问题"的闭环机制。该机制围绕住房、社区、城区等六个层级查找短板,将全市23 万栋住房纳入系统体检,着力破解停车难、充电难、出行难等民生关切。此项创新已入选住建部可复制 经验做法清单并向全国推广。 以体检结果为指引,天津科学谋划更新项目。全市已审定49个片区类更新项目,其中一机床、 ...
多省市定调!未来五年房地产发展路线图浮出
近期,多个省市陆续发布关于国民经济和社会发展的第十五个五年规划建议(以下简称"'十五五'规划 建议"),对"十五五"时期的经济社会发展提出目标和要求,并做出工作部署。 房地产处于新旧动能转换关键阶段,又事关金融稳定与民生福祉,对这项工作的安排,备受各方关注。 21世纪经济报道记者梳理多个省份的"十五五"规划建议发现,对房地产相关工作的部署,主要体现在化 解风险、促进消费、发力城市更新、推动高质量发展等方面。其中,不少省份的提法颇有亮点。 广东省、重庆市、厦门市均在"十五五"规划建议中提出,实现更高水平住有所居,体现出在住有所居的 基础上,对供应制度、居住品质和管理体系的更高要求。 贵州省强调,探索推进"四房联动",即"以旧换新促进二手房与商品房联动,以需定购促进保障房与商 品房联动,以购代建促进安置房与商品房联动"。贵州还因地制宜地提出,"大力发展旅居地产"。 作为城市内涵式发展的重要内容,不少省市对城市更新也有创新性提法。 梳理这些内容,对于理解未来五年房地产发展模式和路径,有着重要意义。 防风险与促消费并重 在楼市处于新旧发展动能转换的关键阶段,防范化解风险仍是房地产政策的重要底线。 在多个省市的"十五五 ...
超半数装修建材股下跌 晶雪节能股价下跌5.96%
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-12-10 09:23
Core Viewpoint - The renovation and building materials sector experienced a slight decline, closing at 16,425.40 points with a drop of 0.06% [1] Industry Performance - From the beginning of the year to December 2, the construction decoration index increased by 6.8% [1] - The renovation and decoration service sub-sector led the gains with an increase of 30.6% [1] Stock Performance - Jingxue Energy closed at 25.42 CNY per share, down 5.96%, leading the decline in the renovation and building materials stocks [1] - *ST Yazhen closed at 38.81 CNY per share, down 4.99%, ranking second in the decline [1] - Youbang Ceiling closed at 28.49 CNY per share, down 3.62%, ranking third in the decline [1] - Zhongyuan Home closed at 19.70 CNY per share, up 9.99%, leading the gains in the sector [1] - Xilinmen closed at 23.07 CNY per share, up 5.63%, ranking second in the gains [1] - Shangpin Home Delivery closed at 14.86 CNY per share, up 5.46%, ranking third in the gains [1] Urban Renewal - The funding sources for urban renewal include central government funds, local special bonds, loans from financial institutions, and social capital, providing strong momentum for urban renewal development [1] - A total of 25,000 old urban residential communities are planned to be renovated by 2025, with 21,700 already started from January to August, achieving 86.8% of the annual target [1] - There is significant potential for construction companies in urban renewal and maintenance fields [1]