Stock Performance - Jin'an Guoji achieved a 10.02% increase over four consecutive days, driven by copper-clad laminates and medical devices [2] - Honghe Technology saw a 10.02% rise over six days, attributed to electronic-grade glass [2] - Jiuding New Materials recorded a 10.05% increase over three days, also linked to electronic-grade glass [2] - Bomin Electronics experienced a 9.98% rise over six days, related to PCB and chips [2] - Yihua New Materials surged by 19.99% over four days, associated with RSW [2] Industry Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition in the photovoltaic industry, urging companies to enhance product quality and phase out outdated capacity [4] - The photovoltaic sector is witnessing significant stock performance, with companies like Huaguang Huaneng and Yamaton showing increases of 9.98% and 10.01% respectively, driven by photovoltaic glass [6] - The semiconductor industry is gaining attention as Changxin Storage initiates its IPO guidance, with stocks like Xinling Electric and Wotton Technology showing increases of 20.01% and 9.98% respectively [7] - Analysts predict a potential improvement in earnings across technology, consumer, and midstream manufacturing sectors as the mid-year reporting season approaches, which could drive the A-share market upward [8] Real Estate Sector - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is conducting research to stabilize expectations, activate demand, optimize supply, and mitigate risks in the real estate market, aiming for a rebound [11] - Stocks like Yukaifa and Hefei Urban Construction have shown increases of 10.10% and 10.04% respectively, linked to real estate developments [12] Innovation in Pharmaceuticals - A report from CICC indicates that China's innovative pharmaceuticals are entering a phase of gradual innovation, gaining international competitiveness [13] - Stocks such as Weixin Kang and Lianhuan Pharmaceutical have seen increases of 10.02% and 10.01% respectively, driven by innovations in pharmaceuticals [14] Power Sector - The recent heatwave has led to a surge in electricity demand, with the national peak load reaching 1.465 billion kilowatts, a historical high [33] - Companies like Huayin Electric and Xinzhonggang have reported increases of 10.00% and 10.01% respectively, attributed to performance in the power sector [34]

Group 1: Power Sector - Several companies in the power sector have shown significant stock performance, with Huaguang Huaneng achieving a 10.02% increase over three consecutive days [2] - Shaoneng Co. saw a 10.07% rise over two days due to changes in its controlling shareholder [2] - New Zhonggang and Shen Nan Electric A both recorded a 10.00% increase over two days, driven by the power sector's overall positive sentiment [2] - New companies like Shimao Energy and YN Energy debuted with a 10.00% increase, indicating strong market interest in the power sector [2] Group 2: Cross-Border Payment - The People's Bank of China is seeking public opinion on the draft rules for the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), which outlines detailed processes for account management and fund settlement [4][18] - Companies like Xinyada and Jingbeifang have seen stock increases of 9.98% and 10.00% respectively, attributed to developments in cross-border payment and digital currency [5] Group 3: Smart Grid - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued a notice promoting the scientific planning and construction of high-power charging facilities, which is expected to enhance the smart grid infrastructure [7] - Companies such as Xinling Electric and Suwen Electric have experienced stock increases of 20.00% and 20.01% respectively, reflecting positive market sentiment towards smart grid advancements [8] Group 4: Real Estate - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is actively working to stabilize expectations and stimulate demand in the real estate market, which has led to increased stock performance for companies like Nanshan Holdings and Caixin Development [9][12] - Nanshan Holdings recorded a 9.90% increase over four days, while Caixin Development saw a 9.85% rise over three days, indicating a recovery trend in the real estate sector [10][12] Group 5: Medical Devices - The Ministry of Finance has decided to exclude EU companies from participating in government procurement for certain medical devices, which is expected to benefit domestic manufacturers [15] - Companies like Jin'an Guoji and Baolait have seen stock increases of 9.96% and 20.02% respectively, driven by favorable policy changes in the medical device sector [16] Group 6: Nuclear Power - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has approved the merger of China Shipbuilding and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, which is expected to enhance the capabilities of the nuclear power sector [20] - Companies such as Changcheng Electric and Wangzi New Materials have recorded stock increases of 10.05% and 10.00% respectively, reflecting positive market sentiment towards nuclear power developments [21] Group 7: Digital Currency - The recent developments in the CIPS are also influencing the digital currency sector, with companies like Jinyi Culture and Jihong Co. seeing stock increases of 9.95% and 10.00% respectively [19]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Analyst 50 Portfolio **Construction Idea**: The portfolio is designed to outperform the CSI 500 index by leveraging the superior performance of newly recommended stocks and the effectiveness of the earnings surprise factor in stock selection[25][27][34] **Construction Process**: 1. Select newly recommended stocks from the monthly broker top 10 stock pool based on whether they are repeated from the previous month[25] 2. Calculate the earnings surprise factor (SUE) for each stock in the newly recommended stock pool, and select the top 50 stocks based on SUE values. Initial weights are assigned based on the number of broker recommendations[25] 3. Adjust the portfolio's industry weights proportionally to match the latest CSI 500 index industry weight distribution. Within each industry, stock weights are adjusted proportionally to finalize the Analyst 50 Portfolio[25] **Formula**: $$ SUE = \frac{R_t - E_t}{\sigma(R_t - E_t)} $$ - \( R_t \): Actual financial report value - \( E_t \): Analyst forecast value - \( \sigma(R_t - E_t) \): Standard deviation of the difference between actual and forecast values[22] **Evaluation**: The portfolio dynamically captures market trends and high-volatility stocks, demonstrating strong adaptability and aggressiveness[34] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Earnings Surprise (SUE) **Construction Idea**: Measure the degree to which actual financial report values exceed analyst forecast values to identify stocks with potential for outperformance[22][23] **Construction Process**: 1. Use quarterly forecast and actual values to calculate the SUE factor[26] 2. Integrate earnings previews, quick reports, and regular reports, and forward-fill factor values during financial report gaps[23] **Formula**: $$ SUE = \frac{R_t - E_t}{\sigma(R_t - E_t)} $$ - \( R_t \): Actual financial report value - \( E_t \): Analyst forecast value - \( \sigma(R_t - E_t) \): Standard deviation of the difference between actual and forecast values[22] **Evaluation**: The factor shows strong differentiation in stock performance, especially in newly recommended stocks, where the information absorption is slower compared to repeated stocks[23] Model Backtesting Results - **Analyst 50 Portfolio**: - Annualized return: 14.9% - Annualized excess return over CSI 500: 15.6% - Maximum drawdown: 38.5% - Annualized volatility: 24.2% - Sharpe ratio: 0.58[27][29][20] Factor Backtesting Results - **Earnings Surprise (SUE)**: - Newly recommended stocks: - Annualized return: 14.1% - Annualized volatility: 24.2% - Sharpe ratio: 0.58 - Maximum drawdown: 38.5% - Repeated stocks: - Annualized return: 8.8% - Annualized volatility: 23.3% - Sharpe ratio: 0.38 - Maximum drawdown: 45.0%[20][19][23]

| 报 告 摘 要 | | --- | | 一、国信金工主动量化策略表现跟踪 | | 本周， 优秀基金业绩增强组合 绝对收益-0.21%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额收 | | 益1.44%。本年，优秀基金业绩增强组合绝对收益2.35%，相对偏股混合型基金指 | | 数超额收益-1.54%。 今年以来，优秀基金业绩增强组合在主动股基中排名46.01% | | 分位点（1596/3469）。 | | 本周， 超预期精选组合 绝对收益-2.84%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额收 | | 益-1.19%。本年，超预期精选组合绝对收益12.67%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超 | | 额收益8.78%。 今年以来，超预期精选组合在主动股基中排名11.50%分位点 | | （399/3469）。 | | 本周， 券商金股业绩增强组合 绝对收益-1.14%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额收 | | 益0.51%。本年，券商金股业绩增强组合绝对收益6.52%，相对偏股混合型基金指 | | 数超额收益2.63%。 今年以来，券商金股业绩增强组合在主动股基中排名26.43% | | 分位点（917/3469）。 | | -2.33% 本 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Natural reported strong financial results for 2024 and Q1 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, indicating robust operational performance and effective cost management [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 190 million yuan, up 41.7% year-on-year [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue reached 210 million yuan, reflecting a 39.4% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 20 million yuan, reversing a loss of 30 million yuan from the previous year [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue was 360 million yuan, a 30.4% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 100 million yuan, up 148.3% year-on-year [1][2]. Business Segments - The revenue growth in Q1 2025 was primarily driven by strong orders in the mattress, thermal box, and water sports products segments [2]. - The company is experiencing stable growth in new business areas, although short-term mattress orders are pressured by tariffs [2]. Future Outlook - Short-term domestic mattress orders are expected to remain under pressure, but with the gradual implementation of tariffs and capacity migration to Southeast Asia, the mattress segment is anticipated to recover steadily [2]. - The company forecasts net profits of 270 million yuan, 340 million yuan, and 410 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding valuations of 13X, 11X, and 9X [2].

【CRL】1Q25业绩总结 1Q25业绩#超预期，主要为DSA板块驱动。 DSA板块netb2b自2022H2以来首次大于1（代表着净新签订单>营业收入，在手订单恢复增长，意义重大！）。 上调DSA板块的全年业绩指引。 【业绩概览】 1Q25整体收入9.84亿美元，同比-2.7%，内生收入（去除汇率、收并购及资产剥离）-1.8%（此前预期中个位数下 滑）；N 【CRL】1Q25业绩总结 1Q25业绩#超预期，主要为DSA板块驱动。 DSA板块netb2b自2022H2以来首次大于1（代表着净新签订单>营业收入，在手订单恢复增长，意义重大！）。 上调DSA板块的全年业绩指引。 【业绩概览】 1Q25整体收入9.84亿美元，同比-2.7%，内生收入（去除汇率、收并购及资产剥离）-1.8%（此前预期中个位数下 滑）；Non-GAAPOM%（OperatingMargin，下同)19.1%，同比+0.6pcts，Non-GAAPEPS$2.34，同比+3.1%。 【行业观点】 Biotech：需求逐步稳定，来自中小型biotech客户的收入 政府/学术机构：1Q25收入小幅增长。 公司对NIH/FDA的预算缩减、Q1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Disney's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong results in theme parks and streaming services, leading to an upward revision of the full-year profit forecast [1][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Disney reported Q2 revenue of $23.62 billion, surpassing the expected $23.05 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 7% [1]. - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q2 were $1.45, exceeding the forecast of $1.20, and reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 20% [1]. - The company raised its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to a growth of 16% to $5.75, above the market expectation of $5.44, and projected operating cash flow of $17 billion, higher than the previous estimate of $15 billion [1]. Group 2: Business Segments Performance - The theme park segment showed strong performance, with revenue growth of 9% to $2.49 billion, primarily driven by increased visitors in California and Florida parks [3]. - The direct-to-consumer (DTC) streaming segment, including Disney+ and Hulu, achieved profitability for the fourth consecutive quarter, with profits reaching $336 million, significantly up from $47 million in the previous year [3]. - Disney+ added 1.4 million subscribers in the quarter, exceeding analyst expectations of a 1.25 million subscriber loss, despite a previous decline of 700,000 subscribers due to price increases [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Disney's CEO expressed confidence in the company's future, despite facing challenges such as tariff pressures from potential 100% tariffs on foreign-made films [5][7]. - The company is actively repurchasing shares, having bought back $1.8 billion worth of stock this fiscal year, and expects park revenue to grow by 6% to 8% in fiscal year 2025 [6]. - Disney aims to generate $1 billion from streaming services this year and continues to focus on enhancing the profitability of its online platforms [6].

Group 1 - Tyson Foods reported a profit exceeding market expectations due to increased chicken sales offsetting losses in the beef segment [1] - For Q2 of fiscal year 2025, Tyson's revenue was $13.07 billion, flat year-over-year and below market expectations; earnings per share reached $0.92, a 48% increase from the previous year, surpassing analysts' average forecast of $0.80 [1] - Adjusted operating profit grew nearly 27% year-over-year to $515 million, primarily driven by chicken sales growth [1] Group 2 - Tyson's beef segment reported a loss of $149 million (excluding special items), marking the sixth consecutive quarter of losses for this segment due to rising cattle costs that could not be passed on to consumers [2] - The adjusted operating profit for the chicken segment was $312 million, outperforming analyst expectations [2] - The average loss per cattle for beef packers reached $115.97, the highest since at least 2014 [2] Group 3 - The free cash flow generated in the first six months of fiscal year 2025 was lower than the same period last year [3]

Event Overview - The company disclosed its 2024 annual report and Q1 2025 report, achieving a total revenue of 16.82 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 28.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 97.1%. For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.0%, and a net profit of 510 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 96.8%, exceeding previous performance forecasts [1]. Analysis and Judgment - Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, driven by the growth of the Wujie brand and the channel vehicle business. The revenue for Q4 2024 was 4.60 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%, with growth attributed to the rapid expansion of the Wujie brand. The Q1 2025 revenue reached a historical high of 4.65 billion yuan, primarily due to: 1) High growth in Wujie brand and channel vehicle business, with motorcycle product revenue of 2.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.4% (Wujie brand revenue was 860 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.8%); 2) Recovery in general machinery business with sales revenue of 1.126 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.37%; 3) Growth in motorcycle engines and all-terrain products [1]. - On the profit side, the net profit attributable to shareholders for Q4 2024 was 220 million yuan, turning from loss to profit, but down 28.0% quarter-on-quarter due to asset/credit impairment of approximately 200 million yuan. The Q1 2025 performance showed rapid growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to the synergy of volume and profit from the Wujie brand, high growth in channel vehicle business, and optimization of the expense structure [1]. - The expense structure significantly improved under scale effects, with Q1 2025 sales/management/R&D/financial expenses at 1.0%/2.5%/2.0%/-0.7%, showing year-on-year changes of -0.8/-1.9/-1.2/+0.2 percentage points and quarter-on-quarter changes of +0.0/-0.2/-0.2/+1.0% [1]. Product and Channel Growth - In 2024, the Wujie brand achieved revenue of 3.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 111.4%. Domestic sales revenue was 1.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 114.5%, while export sales revenue was 1.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 107.5%. The European market contributed significantly, with sales revenue of 1.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 133.4%. By the end of 2024, the company established 990 domestic sales outlets and 1,165 overseas sales outlets, including nearly 900 in Europe, laying a solid foundation for continued sales growth [2]. Global Expansion of Mid-to-Large Displacement Motorcycles - The company's mid-to-large displacement motorcycle sales (over 250cc) were 75,000 and 108,000 units in 2023 and 2024, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 53.7% and 43.1%. Export sales were 41,000 and 51,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 47.7% and 24.8%, respectively, primarily driven by the Wujie brand. In 2024, the Wujie brand saw rapid sales growth in Spain, with cumulative sales reaching 9,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 128.5%, and market share rising to 4.2%. In Q1 2025, sales reached 2,336 units, a year-on-year increase of 44.6%, ranking fifth in the market. In Italy, the SR16 scooter model sold 1,033 units in Q1 2025, becoming the best-selling domestic model [3]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to benefit from the dual expansion of the Wujie brand in both product and channel, accelerating growth through volume and profit synergy. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 20.16 billion, 23.71 billion, and 27.64 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.95 billion, 2.41 billion, and 2.88 billion yuan, respectively. The EPS is projected to be 0.95, 1.17, and 1.40 yuan, corresponding to a closing price of 12.45 yuan per share on April 30, 2025, with PE ratios of 13, 11, and 9 times [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yili Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Yili's performance in 2024 is expected to be impacted by a decline in revenue and net profit, but the first quarter of 2025 shows signs of improvement with better-than-expected results [7] - The company is focusing on cost advantages and optimizing product structure, leading to significant improvements in gross margin [7] - Yili's strategy emphasizes rational channel management and shareholder returns, with a notable increase in dividend payout ratio [7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, Yili is projected to achieve total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.24%, and a net profit of 8.45 billion yuan, down 19% [7] - In Q1 2025, the company expects total revenue of 33.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit of 4.87 billion yuan, down 17.7% [7] - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 is expected to improve, with increases of 1.3 and 1.88 percentage points respectively [7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 120.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.43%, and for 2026, it is projected at 126.34 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.5% [7] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is revised to 11.11 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31.48%, and for 2026, it is expected to be 12.13 billion yuan, with a growth of 9.18% [7] - The report maintains a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) forecast of 17 for 2025, 16 for 2026, and 15 for 2027 [7]