特朗普：美国商务部长卢特尼克欢主权财富基金的想法。 ...

特朗普：宁愿先还债，再搞主权财富基金。 ...

美国白宫：财政部和商务部已经制定了主权财富基金的计划，但是还没有做出最终决定。 ...

CBS报道称，美国政府高级顾问向特朗普总统提交了一份创建政府运营投资基金的计划，这是特朗普今 年早些时候提出的要求，但白宫拒绝了该提议的部分内容。此前，特朗普要求财政部长贝森特和商务部 长卢特尼克在5月初之前共同制定一项关于美国主权财富基金的提案。消息人士称，该提案已经提交。 不过，消息人士称，白宫对财政部采取的做法感到担忧。有关该基金运作机制的细节仍在讨论中，近期 不会宣布任何消息。 ...

智通财经5月8日电，据报道，白宫否决了部分主权财富基金计划。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Sovereign wealth funds are showing a strong interest in investing in the United States, as highlighted by U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo [1] Group 1 - Sovereign wealth funds are seeking opportunities to invest in various sectors within the U.S. economy [1] - The U.S. government is actively encouraging these investments to bolster economic growth and job creation [1] - There is a growing recognition of the importance of foreign investment in enhancing the competitiveness of the U.S. market [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, announced that sovereign wealth funds will invest in the United States [1]

Abstract 摘要 中金研究 本篇报告中，我们对2025年二季度印度尼西亚经济进行展望。 点击小程序查看报告原文 宏观经济：在全球不利因素背景下应对内部结构性挑战 2025年一季度，印尼经济面临挑战。根据彭博一致预期，印尼全国GDP增速预计放缓至4.9%，内部结构性挑战大于外部不利因素。展望2025年二季度， 我们认为印尼有望通过采取更多措施应对对于资源过度依赖以及重建外国投资者信心：1）在印尼盾贬值和货币宽松之间寻求更加均衡的货币政策；2）战 略性开放市场，在保证核心技术留存的同时允许外国投资者加大对重点行业的持股；3）重振国内消费。 推出新的主权财富基金Danantara[1]以及新的资源出口外汇收益留存政策 对外贸易：印尼对美贸易敞口有限，对等关税风险可控 印尼出口市场较为多元化，对美出口敞口较小。2024年，对美出口在印尼整体出口中所占比重仅为10%，在此印尼不同于东盟内受到供应链回流以及"友 岸外包"影响的其他国家。此外我们认为对外贸易对于印尼经济增速的平均贡献较低（仅为0.3%，而2009年至2024年期间印尼实际GDP平均增速为4.8%） 可以使得印尼受关税影响较小。 采矿业面临的挑战：矿区 ...

在今年1月举办的达沃斯世界经济论坛上，坦根也曾表示，当下是买入中国资产的良机。"最好 的做法永远是反其道而行之。如果你要和其他人做相反的事情，现在就是卖掉美国科技股，买 入中国资产，卖出私募信贷，买那些不太流行的东西。" 全球市场动荡之际，规模达1.8万亿美元、全球最大的主权财富基金—— 挪威政府全球养老基 金报告了今年前3个月高达近400亿美元的亏损 。 北京时间4月24日，挪威央行投资管理公司（Norges Bank Inves tment Management） 发布的一则公告显示，其管理的挪威政府全球养老基金于今年前3个月亏损了0.6%，约为 4150亿挪威克朗（约合397.2亿美元）。 "本季度受到市场波动巨震的影响。我们的股权投资为负回报，主要是由于科技板块拖累。"首 席执行官坦根表示。 去年同期，该基金的股权投资回报率为9.1% 。彼时，挪威银行投资管理公司副首席执行官格 兰德说："我们的股权投资在第一季度的回报表现非常强劲，特别是在科技领域的推动下。" 具体来看，该基金以指数跟踪为主，股票投资亏损1.6%，而固定收益投资则获得了1.6%的收 益。一季度的整体表现仍比基准指数高出0.16个百分点 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent liquidity risks in the U.S. market due to the unwinding of basis trades by hedge funds, which may lead to a significant increase in U.S. Treasury yields and systemic financial risks [1][12]. Summary by Sections Basis Trading Overview - Basis trading involves arbitrage between the cash, futures, and repo markets of U.S. Treasuries, where investors buy cash Treasuries and sell futures to profit from the price difference [2]. - The cost of basis trading primarily consists of borrowing costs in the repo market, while the return is derived from the basis, which is the difference between futures and cash prices [2][6]. Risks of Basis Trading - The main risks associated with basis trading include: 1. **Repo Roll-Over Risk**: Increased borrowing costs if liquidity in the repo market tightens [6]. 2. **Margin Risk**: Potential losses if futures and cash prices diverge significantly [6]. 3. **Leverage Risk**: High leverage can amplify the aforementioned risks [6]. Current Market Conditions - As of Q3 2024, hedge funds hold approximately $2.06 trillion in long positions in cash Treasuries and have about $1 trillion in net repo borrowings, indicating a total basis trading volume between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion [9][11]. - The market is currently characterized by high volatility, with the VIX and MOVE indices reaching recent highs, which may trigger increased margin requirements for hedge funds [12][16]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing an oversupply, exacerbated by a new debt ceiling proposal that could increase the deficit by $5.8 trillion over the next decade [16][19]. - Weak demand, particularly from foreign investors, has been noted since late last year, which could further pressure liquidity in the market [16][19]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Escalating trade tensions and geopolitical risks may lead to capital outflows from the U.S., contributing to a potential "triple whammy" of declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar [19][20]. - Hedge funds, as significant net buyers of Treasuries since the beginning of the balance sheet reduction, have substantial exposure across various asset classes, which could facilitate the spread of risks across markets [22][24]. Future Outlook - The likelihood of systemic financial risks is increasing, particularly with the potential for liquidity shocks following the resolution of the debt ceiling in May-June [26]. - The Federal Reserve may be compelled to restart quantitative easing (QE) to stabilize the market, which could further exacerbate wealth inequality and contradict current economic policies aimed at strengthening the middle class [26].