But your first guest today says don't be deterred. He thinks the S&P 500 will power up next year all the way to 7750. Let's start off a big day with Julian Emanuel, senior managing director of equity, derivatives, quantitative strategy at Evercore ISI.Julian, welcome. One day not a trend make, but do you have a take on what's happening today. >> Well, this is a classic buy the rumor, sell the news.Right. So the market turned last Friday on anticipation of the government reopening and essentially if you look ...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee at the Federal Reserve on Oct. 29, 2025 in Washington, DC.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell wasn't kidding a couple weeks ago when he said a December rate cut wasn't in the bag.Recent remarks from Powell's colleagues point to plenty of apprehension over whether the central bank should deliver its third consecutive easing of policy when it meets Dec. 9-10.As a result, markets have re ...

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2025/11/13 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 | 1632.000 -38.5↓ EC次主力收盘价 1170.3 | | | | -16.90↓ | | 期货盘面 | EC2602-EC2605价差 461.70 -2.90↓ EC2602-EC2606价差 251.30 | | | | -20.60↓ | | EC合约基差 | -127.20 +300.69↑ | | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 37284 4383↑ | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 1504.80 296.09↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） 1,327.91 | | ...

A retreat in US stocks picked up pace on Thursday as investors absorbed the end of the longest government shutdown in US history, weighing its impact on the economy and the path of interest rates. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led losses with a nearly 1.8% slump, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) slid 1.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dropped roughly 0.7%, backtracking from its second record close in a row notched the previous session. President Trump signed a bill ending the record-settin ...

Boston Fed President Susan Collins has voted in line with the central bank's majority decisions so far this year. ...

Group 1 - The USD/CAD exchange rate remains volatile around 1.4008, influenced by weak U.S. private sector job growth and expectations of a potential Fed rate cut in December [1] - The U.S. ADP employment report indicates a significant decline in private sector jobs, with an average weekly decrease of 11,250 jobs, down from 14,250, reflecting a cooling labor market [1] - The Bank of Canada (BoC) has signaled a pause in further rate cuts after reducing the policy rate to 2.25% in October, with expectations that rates will remain stable until mid-2027 [1] Group 2 - The technical analysis of USD/CAD shows a narrow trading range between 1.3980 and 1.4040, with no clear directional signal, and a potential breakout above 1.4050 could lead to resistance at 1.4100 [2] - The RSI indicator is around 50, indicating a neutral market phase, and the focus remains on the impact of the BoC meeting minutes on market expectations [2]

Group 1 - The Japanese yen remains under pressure, trading near its lowest level against the US dollar since February 13, due to cautious policy adjustments by the Bank of Japan and optimism regarding the US government's potential to avoid a shutdown [1][2] - The Bank of Japan's October policy meeting summary indicates some members see a possibility of a rate hike in December, although there are differing opinions suggesting a delay until January due to potential economic contraction in Q3 [1][2] - The US Senate has passed a bill to restart the federal government, alleviating the longest government shutdown in history, which has boosted market risk sentiment and further weakened the yen's safe-haven appeal [1][2] Group 2 - Economic scholars estimate that the recent prolonged US government shutdown could lead to a quarterly GDP growth rate decline of approximately 1.5 to 2.0 percentage points, contributing to a sustained pressure on the US dollar [2] - The market remains vigilant regarding potential intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance in the currency market, which could hinder further appreciation of the dollar against the yen [2] - The technical outlook for USD/JPY indicates a strong bullish trend, with potential resistance levels at 154.45 to 154.50, and if breached, targets could extend to 155.00 and beyond [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material cost has decreased due to the PNBP policy in Indonesia restricting nickel resource supply and increasing costs, while the high production of Indonesian ferronickel is expected to increase the return volume to China and lead to an obvious decline in ferronickel prices. The supply pressure of stainless steel is expected to increase as steel mills' production profits are restored, and production schedules are likely to rise at the end of the traditional consumption peak season with expectations of infrastructure and real - estate demand. However, the downstream demand shows a weak peak - season characteristic, with low market purchasing willingness and general inquiry and transaction performance, resulting in a slight increase in the national stainless - steel social inventory. Technically, with increasing positions and falling prices, the short - selling sentiment is strong, showing a downward - channel trend, and the support at 12,400 should be watched. It is recommended to wait and see or adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies, paying attention to the MA30 pressure [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,605 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread is - 5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,121 lots, down 690 lots; the main - contract position is 46,429 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity is 72,031 tons, down 60 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B cut - edge coils in Wuxi is 13,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SS main - contract basis is 415 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 2.17 million metal tons, down 0.03 million metal tons; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, up 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, up 0.2112 million tons; the SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,200 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 920 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; the monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 75.78 million tons, down 2.69 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly 300 - series stainless - steel production is 1.7627 million tons, up 0.0248 million tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 0.5708 million tons, down 0.01 million tons; the monthly stainless - steel export volume is 0.4585 million tons, down 0.0295 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 31,600 units, up 4,000 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,200 units, down 500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, up 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - In October, policies to expand domestic demand continued to show effects. Driven by the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 1.2% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the 6th consecutive month. The PPI turned from flat to a 0.1% month - on - month increase in October, the first increase this year, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics postponed the release of the CPI report and suspended offline data collection. Although the market still expects a rate cut in December, the lack of official data may give policymakers worried about inflation a reason to keep interest rates unchanged next month. China's exports in October denominated in US dollars decreased 1.1% year - on - year, while imports increased 1% year - on - year. Soybean imports reached a record high for the same period, while the import volume and price of refined oil, natural gas, and coal both declined, and rare - earth exports ended three consecutive months of decline. China's retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in October decreased 0.8% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month, while new - energy vehicle retail sales increased 7.3% year - on - year and decreased 1.3% month - on - month [2]. Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2]

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 74.8 points, or 0.16%, closing at 46,987.1 [2] - The Nasdaq Composite decreased by 49.45 points, or 0.21%, closing at 23,004.54 [2] - The S&P 500 rose by 8.48 points, or 0.13%, closing at 6,728.8 [2] - European markets showed mixed results, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down by 44.65 points, or 0.80% [2] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 244.07 points, or 0.92%, closing at 26,241.83 [2] Legislative Developments - A significant breakthrough in bipartisan negotiations has occurred, with at least 10 Democratic senators ready to support a package to end the government shutdown [3] - The proposed package includes spending bills and short-term funding measures to keep the federal government operational until the end of January [3] Transportation Sector - The U.S. Transportation Secretary warned that ongoing government shutdowns could lead to a more severe reduction in flights, with a potential increase in flight cancellations to 10% if the shutdown continues [4] - Recent data indicated that over 14,792 flights were delayed and 3,788 flights were canceled over the weekend due to air traffic controller shortages [4] Economic Indicators - Bank of America predicts that the Federal Open Market Committee will not lower interest rates again during Jerome Powell's term, which ends in May 2026 [5] - China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2% in October, reversing a previous decline, while core CPI rose by 1.2%, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [6] Corporate Developments - Pfizer has acquired Metsera for $10 billion, concluding a competitive bidding process that saw Novo Nordisk withdraw due to antitrust concerns [9] - Elon Musk indicated that achieving the ambitious $400 billion EBITDA target for Tesla by 2025 is challenging but feasible with significant effort [9] Leadership Changes - The BBC's chairman and news director resigned amid allegations of biased reporting, particularly concerning coverage of the Israel-Hamas conflict and other sensitive topics [10]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call focuses on the foreign exchange (FX) market, specifically the G10 currencies, with a recommendation to maintain short positions on the US dollar (USD) against the Canadian dollar (CAD), Australian dollar (AUD), and British pound (GBP) [6][8][17]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Short USD Recommendations**: The company maintains a short USD position against GBP, CAD, and AUD, anticipating these currencies will strengthen as Federal Reserve (Fed) pricing adjusts [6][8]. - **Market Sentiment**: There is a bearish sentiment towards CAD and GBP, while growth expectations and positive fundamentals are expected to support AUD, CAD, and GBP [6][8]. - **Impact of US Government Shutdown**: A potential end to the US government shutdown could negatively impact the USD by restoring data flow and enhancing market confidence in a December Fed rate cut [6][9]. - **Global Growth Sentiment**: There is an improvement in global growth sentiment, with rising growth forecasts and higher Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMIs) in major economies, creating a favorable environment for risk-sensitive currencies [6][11]. - **USD Positioning Risks**: Current options data indicates that USD positioning is at its most bullish level since January, which raises the risk of a pullback [6][13]. - **Fundamental Trajectory for USD**: The fundamental outlook for the USD remains unchanged, with expectations of rising unemployment and front-end yields moving against the USD as the Fed is projected to implement four additional rate cuts [10][11]. Additional Important Insights - **Positive Outlook for AUD, CAD, and GBP**: - AUD is supported by a robust growth outlook, continued immigration inflows, and fiscal tailwinds, with 2-year Australian yields now on par with 2-year US Treasury yields [15]. - CAD is expected to benefit from an expansionary budget and well-priced trade negotiations with the US [15]. - GBP positioning is seen as stretched, with potential for a decline in GBP-negative premiums as fiscal concerns ease [16]. - **Trade Recommendations**: - Maintain short USD/CAD at 1.4130 with a target of 1.34 and stop at 1.44 [19]. - Maintain long GBP/USD at 1.3137 with a target of 1.39 and stop at 1.27 [19]. - Maintain long AUD/USD at 0.6490 with a target of 0.69 and stop at 0.63 [19]. - **Valuation Methodology and Risks**: The report includes a detailed list of current trade ideas, entry levels, rationales, and associated risks [20]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the strategic recommendations and market outlook for the G10 currencies.