Group 1: Market Reactions - The US dollar strengthened after Congress reached an agreement to fund the government through the end of the year, easing concerns about a potential government shutdown, which led to some traders selling gold [2] - Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at 112.43, down 2.89%, as sellers entered the market following recent gains [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Ongoing concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence and the potential for lower interest rates are capping the dollar's gains, with investors awaiting the announcement of a new Fed chair and the upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI) report [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors Impacting Gold - US geopolitical tensions, including President Trump's tariff threats and military posturing in the Middle East, are providing support for gold prices, limiting their losses [4][5] - The unresolved conflict between Russia and Ukraine adds to market uncertainty, as Ukraine rejected Russia's demands, keeping the situation tense [6]

里克·里德尔（Rick Rieder） 美国总统特朗普周四表示，他打算在下周宣布接替美联储主席鲍威尔的人选，届时，关于鲍威尔将于5 月卸任后由谁领导美国央行的猜测日益甚嚣尘上。 "我们将宣布美联储主席人选，我认为，这将是一个能做好工作的人，"特朗普在今年的首次内阁会议上 表示，重申了他关于大幅降低利率的一贯主张。 美联储在2025年降息三次，在周三结束为期两天的政策会议，维持基准利率在3.50%·3.75%区间不变。 特朗普表示，利率应降低两到三个百分点，这一水平在历史上与经济停滞或衰退是一致的。 美国商务部的数据显示，第三季度年化经济增长率为4.4%。 在特朗普政府长达数月的正式物色鲍威尔继任者的过程中，人们看到总统倾向于不同的候选人，即使他 已经加大了对美联储决策施加影响的力度，而美联储不受政治压力的独立性被视为其控制通胀能力的关 键。 近几个月来，特朗普曾试图在一起已提交最高法院的案件中解雇一名美联储理事，他的司法部也对鲍威 尔就建筑翻新发表的言论展开了刑事调查，美联储主席称此举是在货币政策问题上向他施压的"借口"。 特朗普候选名单上的四位候选人 里克·里德尔（Rick Rieder） 美国总统特朗普周 ...

美国总统特朗普表示，他计划下周公布接替美联储主席鲍威尔的人选，从而结束数周以来关于谁将接任 这一职位的猜测。鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束。特朗普还表示，利率应该低2到3个百分点。 ...

Ukraine's central bank cut its key interest rate to 15% on Thursday, from 15.5%, due to slowing inflation and more clarity over international financial aid this year, it said in a statement. ...

1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 固定收益丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 利率上行，地方付息压力怎么看？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com [Table_Summary] 2025 年以来利率上行抬高了地方政府新增债券的发行成本，叠加土地收入下滑，导致其专项债 付息压力持续攀升，2025 年全国层面付息压力预计达 8.42%，正逼近 10%的政策警戒线。压力 呈现显著结构性分化，部分省份和多数地市已提前触及或超过风险阈值，债务风险呈现由基层 向省级上移趋势。尽管付息支出增长正在挤压其他财政支出空间，但由于存量债务基数庞大， 当前利率上升的边际冲击总体仍属可控，需市场利率在现有基础上再大幅上行超过 80 个基点， 才有可能会触及全国性警戒线或耗尽财政腾挪空间，因此预计地方付息压力短期内难以触发货 币政策宽松，降息或调整债券期限结构更多属于中长期应对逻辑。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490525080001 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% %% ...

Core Viewpoint - Jerome Powell has two opportunities to adjust interest rates before the end of his term, but he may not need to do so as the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious optimism regarding the U.S. economic outlook and signs of stabilization in the labor market [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged, indicating that there are no immediate signs requiring further rate cuts to support the economy [1] - Futures markets predict that interest rates will remain stable until at least June, coinciding with the end of Powell's term and the potential for a new chair to initiate another phase of rate cuts encouraged by Donald Trump [1] - Only two voting officials, Stephen Milan and Christopher Waller, advocated for further rate cuts, with Milan having previously served as a senior economic advisor to Trump and Waller being a candidate for the new chair position [1] Group 2 - Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research, stated that the window for rate cuts under Powell's leadership has effectively closed, reflecting a more optimistic view on the labor market and overall economic outlook [1]

"鲍威尔领导下的美联储的降息窗口实际上已经关闭了，"Wolfe Research首席经济学家Stephanie Roth表 示。"他对劳动力市场和整体经济前景的看法比以前更加乐观。" 联邦公开市场委员会周三以10比2的投票结果，将基准联邦基金利率维持在3.5%-3.75%的区间。理事克 里斯托弗·沃勒和斯蒂芬·米兰投下反对票，主张降息25个基点。官员们还删除了前三份声明中出现的关 于就业下行风险增加的表述。 专题：美联储维持基准利率不变 鲍威尔排除加息可能性 并建议继任者"远离政治" 杰罗姆·鲍威尔在他的美联储主席任期结束前，还有两次调整利率的机会，但他可能并不需要。 美联储周三维持利率不变后，鲍威尔表示美国经济前景"明显改善"，并称就业市场出现企稳迹象。这表 明了一种谨慎乐观态度：美联储官员去年秋季三次降息，而且未在最新数据中看到需要进一步降息以支 持经济的迹象。期货市场预计6月之前利率不会变化。 到那时，鲍威尔的主席任期将已结束，新的主席应该已经就职，而且很可能开启唐纳德·特朗普力促降 息的另一个阶段。或许可以暗示未来局面的迹象是，本周决策中仅有的两位投票主张再次降息的官员： 理事斯蒂芬·米兰和理事克里斯 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The US Federal Reserve has left interest rates unchanged, maintaining the federal funds rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, indicating a cautious approach amid mixed economic signals [1][2] - The decision was made with a 10–2 vote, with dissent from two governors advocating for an immediate quarter-point rate cut [2] - Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, but inflation remains somewhat elevated, and the unemployment rate has begun to stabilize [2] Group 2: Mortgage Market Dynamics - Fixed-rate mortgages do not directly follow the Federal Reserve's decisions but are influenced by long-term Treasury yields, which are affected by inflation expectations and global investor sentiment [3] - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is currently at 6.17%, which is higher than many buyers anticipated a few months ago [4] - Even with potential rate cuts from the Fed, mortgage rates may not decrease as expected, as seen in the second half of 2025 [4][5] Group 3: Consumer Borrowing and Credit Rates - Credit cards and variable loans are linked to the prime rate, which is currently at 6.75%, and the average credit card interest rate has fallen to 23.79% [6][8] - Despite the Fed's rate cuts, credit card rates have only declined modestly, with companies delaying the full benefit to customers [7] - High-yield savings accounts are offering attractive rates of 4% to 5% APY, significantly higher than the national average savings rate [8]

美联储官员维持利率不变，利率声明表示美国经济有所改善，并暗示对未来潜在的利率调整采取更审慎 态度。联邦公开市场委员会周三以10比2的投票结果，将基准联邦基金利率维持在3.5%-3.75%的区间。 理事克里斯托弗·沃勒和斯蒂芬·米兰投下反对票，主张降息25个基点。在会后声明中，政策制定者表 示"就业增长保持低位，失业率显现出一些企稳迹象"。官员们还删除了前三份声明中出现的关于就业下 行风险增加的表述。尽管特朗普政府不断施压，但央行提高对劳动力市场的评估可能会抑制市场对近期 降息的预期。在会议开始前，投资者认为至少在6月之前不太可能再次降息。 ...

Stocks Flat After Fed Keeps Rates SteadyCONCLUDED[Stock Market News From Jan. 28, 2026: S&P 500 Breaks Win Streak]Last Updated:---Updated 5 hours ago# Stocks Flat After Fed Keeps Rates SteadyBy[Connor Smith]Stocks were flat on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at its January meeting.The Federal Open Market Committee maintained a target range for the federal-funds rate of 3.5% to 3.75%. The central bank lowered interest rates by a quarter-point in each of the past three meetings. ...