风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎！ 王江楠（F03108382，Z0021543），联系电话：010-82295006 | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/5/15 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/5/14 | 美元/桶 | 63.15 | 63.67 | -0.82% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/5/14 | 美元/桶 | 66.09 | 66.63 | -0.81% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/5/13 | 美元/吨 | 575.50 | 569.00 | 1.14% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/5/14 | | 美元/吨 | 731.50 | 709.50 | 3.10% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/5/14 | 美元/吨 | 870.00 | ...

Group 1 - The US has significantly reduced tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 10%, providing a temporary relief for foreign trade companies during a 90-day "pause" period [2][3][4] - Many foreign trade enterprises in Jiangsu are rapidly increasing production and shipping to capitalize on this tariff reduction, with some companies even recalling employees from vacation to meet demand [2][3] - Companies are experiencing a surge in orders, with some reporting a return to pre-tariff pricing levels, indicating a strong recovery in demand from US clients [2][4] Group 2 - The logistics sector is witnessing a rebound, with companies like Jiangsu Zhongcheng International Logistics expecting a significant increase in shipping volumes by the end of May due to the tariff reduction [3][4] - Some companies are maintaining a cautious approach, recognizing that despite the positive developments, uncertainties regarding US tariff policies remain [3][4][7] - Enterprises are actively engaging with US clients to recover lost orders and explore new opportunities, indicating a shift towards a more collaborative trade environment [4][6] Group 3 - Many companies are diversifying their markets, with a notable shift towards emerging markets in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Africa, as they seek to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating tariffs [6][9] - Companies like Quan Feng Group are leveraging established overseas warehouses to ensure stable supply to the US market, even during periods of overall business stagnation [6][9] - The opening of new shipping routes, such as the one between Suzhou and Peru, is enhancing logistics efficiency and reducing costs for foreign trade [8][9] Group 4 - Companies are increasingly focusing on digital transformation and optimizing supply chain efficiency to adapt to the changing trade landscape [10][11] - The Jiangsu Free Trade Zone Research Institute emphasizes the importance of proactive engagement with overseas clients and maintaining a flexible production and shipping schedule to navigate market fluctuations [11] - Local government initiatives are supporting foreign trade enterprises by organizing events to connect them with potential clients, thereby expanding their market reach [11]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 受业务布局及渠道影响，25Q1中国地区表现较弱 25Q1中国地区收入及正常化EBITDA内生同比-12.7%/-17.1%；销量内生同比-9.2%，每百升收入内生同 比-3.9%。受到业务布局和即饮渠道的表现持续疲弱、以及库存管理措施的影响，25Q1中国地区销量同比 下降；由于基数较高，加上区域和渠道组合不利的影响，收入亦同比减少。受营收同比下降及营运去杠杆 化影响，25Q1中国地区正常化EBITDA同比下降。公司专注非即饮渠道，以带动高端化，该渠道25Q1带来 的销量和收入贡献均取得同比增长。公司加强与年轻消费者的互动，25Q1零糖哈尔滨冰极纯生销量同比 +70%。25H1中国市场仍处于去库存阶段，销量压力预计仍较大，随着库存去化逐步完成，25H2渠道结构 有望回归正常。 风险提示： 渠道掌控力减弱；市场竞争加剧；原材料上涨超预期。 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成 ...

Group 1 - In April, only one subsidized housing project at 3 Muk Lee Street (1,800 units) received a new pre-sale consent, while there were no new applications for private residential projects, marking a return after five months [1] - A total of five projects were approved for pre-sale in April, including the popular Sierra Sea Phase 1 (781 units) and the newly priced Sierra Sea Phase 1B (794 units), along with Kai Tak Flower Sea Phase 2 (416 units), Discovery Bay project (320 units), and 7 Hospital Road, Mid-Levels (62 units), totaling 2,373 units [1][2] - The number of approved but unsold private residential units rose to 16,290 units, a month-on-month increase of approximately 10.8% [2] Group 2 - The cumulative inventory of unsold units reached approximately 22,173 units by the end of April, showing a month-on-month decrease of about 1.4% [2] - The total number of units available for sale, including the approved but unsold units, increased from nearly 37,200 units in March to about 38,500 units in April, reflecting a month-on-month increase of approximately 3.4% [2] - The number of pending pre-sale units decreased by about 8.1% month-on-month to 6,517 units, the lowest level since January 2020 [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 28.876 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.83%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.673 billion yuan, down 33.37% year-on-year [2][6] - In Q4 2024, the company experienced a significant decline in revenue, reporting 1.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year drop of 52.17%, and a net loss of 1.905 billion yuan [2][6] - For Q1 2025, the company’s revenue was 11.066 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.92% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.637 billion yuan, down 39.93% year-on-year [2][6] Financial Performance Summary - The company's net profit margin decreased by 7.13 percentage points to 23.11% in 2024, while the gross profit margin fell by 2.09 percentage points to 73.16% [12] - In Q1 2025, the net profit margin further declined by 4.39 percentage points to 32.87%, with a gross profit margin of 75.59% [12] - The company’s sales volume of liquor in 2024 was 139,100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%, with an average price of 203,100 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.87% [12] Strategic Adjustments - The company is focusing on inventory reduction and optimizing channel relationships, with a stable internal personnel structure and clearer product and channel strategies [12] - It is expected that after completing the current phase of adjustments, the company will likely resume growth, with projected EPS of 3.63 yuan and 3.77 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [12]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/5/6 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/4/29 | 2025/4/30 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 483.6 | 471. 1 | -12. 50 | 成交情况: PTA:PTA行情上涨,去库存利好延续,现货基差上 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 925.6 | 1010. 5 | 84. 84 | 涨,抵消了原油偏弱带来的利空影响。节前业者观望 为主,公开成交不多。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2634 | 1. 2952 | 0. 0318 | | | | CFR中国PX | 756 | 748 | -8 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 178 | 190 | 12 | | | | PTA ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月30日 华利集团（300979.SZ） 优于大市 第一季度收入增长 12%，新厂爬坡拖累毛利率 部分新客户表现优异销量增长带动收入增长双位数，新厂爬坡拖累毛利 率。2025 年第一季度公司实现营业收入 53.53 亿元，同比增长 12.3%，主要 受阿迪达斯、昂跑、NB 等新客户订单销量增长驱动；归母净利润 7.62 亿元， 同比下滑 3.2%。毛利率同比下滑 5.5 百分点至 22.9%，主要受新投产工厂效 率爬坡影响，继 2024 年上半年和下半年各投产 2 家成品鞋工厂之后，2025 年第一季度 2 家成品鞋工厂已经投产。期间费用率同比优化 2.0 百分点，其 中财务费用率同比下降 0.6 百分点至-0.5%，主要受益于汇兑收益增加，今 年 Q1 汇兑收益为 900 万，去年同期损失 1700 万；此外管理费用率同比-1.5 百分点至 3.7%。在毛利率承压影响下，营业利润率同比-3.4 百分点至 17.6%， 归母净利率同比-2.3 百分点至 14.2%。 销量保持高个位数快速增长，新老客户结构更加均衡。拆分量价来看， Q1 销售运动鞋 0.49 亿双，同比+8.2% ...

Group 1 - The number of new residential projects in Ganzhou's main urban area has significantly decreased, with only 2 new projects launched in Q1 2025 compared to 5 in the same period last year [1][3] - The reduction in new projects is attributed to a significant decrease in land auctions, which are the primary source of new housing supply, leading to a scarcity of development land [3][4] - Developers are now more cautious in acquiring land, focusing on core urban areas, and the overall land supply has slowed down, impacting the number of new housing projects [3][6] Group 2 - As of 2025, no residential land has been officially auctioned in Ganzhou's main urban area, indicating a tightening supply of new projects in the near future [4][6] - Upcoming new projects are limited, with only a few known to be launching soon, such as the fourth-generation residential project Zhangjiang Shangjing and the villa project Banshan Yunshu [6] - Current homebuyers in Ganzhou are more discerning, prioritizing quality, community environment, property services, and supporting facilities, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [8]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/4/29 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2025/4/25 | 2025/4/28 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 496. 1 | 498. 0 | 1. 90 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情上涨,去库存预期之下,PTA主力供应商 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 794.8 | 861.0 | 66. 19 | 报盘基差继续走强,提振市场。但买方跟涨动力不 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2205 | 1. 2379 | 0. 0174 | 足,盘中现货基差冲高回落。 | | PX | CFR中国PX | 752 | 758 | 6 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 170 | 176 | 6 | | | | P ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/4/28 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | 指标 | | 2025/4/24 | 2025/4/25 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 493. 4 | 496. 1 | 2. 70 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情上涨,期货休市,现货市场未闻公开成 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/吨) | 784. 4 | 794.8 | 10. 38 | 交,现货基差参考主力供应商报盘的算术平均值评估 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2188 | 1. 2205 | 0. 0017 | 。PTA去库存利好延续,主力供应商挺市。 | | | CFR中国PX | 744 | 752 | 8 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 155 | 170 | 15 | ...