Core Viewpoint - The provincial government is actively engaging with real estate professionals to gather insights and formulate policies aimed at stabilizing and boosting the real estate market, following directives from key leadership [1]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The provincial government plans to dynamically improve support policies and optimize service guarantees to stabilize confidence, market conditions, and expectations in the real estate sector [1]. - Emphasis is placed on implementing city-specific strategies to control inventory, enhance supply, and utilize existing land through urban renewal and village redevelopment initiatives [1]. - The introduction of measures such as "talent housing vouchers" and "housing trade-ins" aims to improve quality and efficiency in the housing market [1]. Group 2: Market Activation - The government intends to stimulate housing consumption through various initiatives, including regular housing exhibitions and promotional activities to ensure precise matching of supply and demand [1]. - The "whitelist" system for real estate projects will be leveraged to support reasonable financing needs of real estate companies, promoting a stable and healthy market development [1]. Group 3: Quality Improvement - There is a focus on enhancing residential quality and property service standards, with actions aimed at promoting the construction of quality housing and the cultivation of good property management [1].

刘小涛强调，要因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给，结合城市更新、城中村改造等盘活利用存量用地， 推进"人才房票"、住房"以旧换新"等举措提质增效，稳妥推进收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等。 坚持"一区域一策、一类群体一策、一地块一策、一楼盘一策"，有效激发和保障不同群体住房需求。实 施住宅品质提升工程和物业服务质量提升行动，有序推动"好房子"建设和"好物业"培育。多措并举激发 住房消费，常态化开展房展促销活动，促进供需精准对接。发挥房地产项目"白名单"制度作用，支持房 地产企业合理融资需求，推动房地产市场平稳健康发展。 座谈会上，部分房地产项目、中介机构负责人围绕项目开发、新房和二手房销售、市场走势等建言献 策，提出针对性意见建议。刘小涛边听边记，不时插话交流、回应诉求。他说，要动态完善支持政策， 持续优化服务保障，进一步稳信心、稳市场、稳预期，着力稳定房地产市场，加快构建房地产发展新模 式。 本报讯(记者王拓李嘉豪)2月5日下午，省政府召开房地产从业人员座谈会，深入贯彻习近平总书记重要 讲话精神，认真落实省委经济工作会议和省委城市工作会议部署，听取一线从业人员意见建议，研究稳 定提振房地产市场政策举措。省长刘 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "delivery difficulties" in China's real estate sector have been largely resolved, with over 7.5 million units of "sold but undelivered" housing expected to be delivered by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, effectively dismantling the most dangerous chain of "unfinished projects - loan defaults - supply disruptions" and temporarily alleviating systemic financial risks [2][10][11]. Group 1: Delivery Achievements - Major real estate companies have reported significant progress in housing delivery, with Country Garden delivering approximately 1.85 million units, while other firms like Greenland, Sunac, and Centaline have also achieved tens of thousands of deliveries [3][6]. - Greenland Holdings announced that its residential projects will deliver over 8 million square meters in 2025, translating to around 80,000 units based on an average size of 100 square meters per unit [6]. - Sunac Group's delivery from 2022 to 2025 is projected to exceed 720,000 units, indicating a robust recovery in the delivery of housing projects [6][11]. Group 2: Systemic Risk Mitigation - The resolution of delivery issues is attributed to a coordinated effort among national, provincial, and municipal levels, ensuring accountability among local governments, real estate companies, and financial institutions [7][10]. - The implementation of targeted measures, such as financing support for viable projects and expedited bankruptcy processes for insolvent ones, has significantly reduced buyer concerns regarding unfinished projects [7][10]. Group 3: Market Confidence and Future Directions - The successful resolution of delivery challenges has restored buyer confidence, which is crucial for stabilizing the real estate market and preventing further declines [11]. - Future strategies include promoting the sale of existing homes and enhancing the quality of housing, with a focus on risk management and sustainable development in the real estate sector [12][14].

如果仅用一个词来展望2026年的房地产市场发展，仍应是"转型"。 2026年，我国房地产转型路径更加明晰。我们将加快构建房地产发展新模式，积极推进城市更新，以更 大力度推动"好房子"建设。房地产发展进一步回归到满足人民对美好居住生活需要的初心和使命，房地 产发展新动能在转型中逐步形成。 着力稳定房地产市场 我国房地产市场正在经历深度调整，已经由需求旺盛转变为结构性供大于求，新建住房需求不可能回到 过去高峰时的规模。我们要准确把握房地产市场供求关系的重大变化。 也应该看到，我国新型城镇化仍在持续推进，城市存量优化调整也有广阔空间，人民群众对高品质住房 充满期待，房地产高质量发展仍然有较大潜力。二手房交易占比上升是今后一个时期的趋势，应把新房 市场和二手房市场作为一个整体来看待。 房地产发展将牢牢抓住让人民群众安居这个基点，处理好当前和长远、顶层设计和因城施策、市场和保 障、租赁和购买、增量和存量、促发展和防风险的关系，坚持政策完善和改革创新并举，确保新旧模式 转换平稳有序。 2025年底召开的中央经济工作会议强调着力稳定房地产市场，为促进房地产市场平稳健康发展、防范化 解房地产风险提供了方向指引。 着力稳定房地 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "delivery difficulties" risk in the real estate industry has been largely resolved, with many real estate companies reporting significant progress in fulfilling their delivery commitments by 2025 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Delivery Progress - As of the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan," approximately 7.5 million units of "sold but undelivered" housing have been delivered nationwide, with major companies like Country Garden delivering about 1.85 million units [1][3]. - Greenland Holdings announced that its residential projects will deliver over 8 million square meters by 2025, translating to around 80,000 units [2]. - Sunac Group reported cumulative deliveries of over 720,000 units from 2022 to 2025, indicating that its delivery work is nearing completion [2]. Group 2: Risk Mitigation and Policy Direction - The national "delivery guarantee" task is set to be fully completed by 2025, with a delivery rate of 99% for the 3.96 million units targeted [3]. - The government has implemented a systematic risk mitigation action over the past three years, involving collaboration across various levels of government and the real estate sector [4]. - Recent policies emphasize stabilizing the market and transitioning to high-quality development, moving away from the "high leverage, high turnover" model [1][8]. Group 3: Industry Transformation - With the completion of large-scale delivery tasks, real estate companies are shifting focus towards debt resolution, asset management, and revitalizing existing land [6][7]. - Companies like Country Garden and Sunac have made substantial progress in debt restructuring and reorganization [6]. - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to promote high-quality development in the real estate sector, addressing previous issues of high debt and leverage [8][9]. Group 4: Market Stabilization - Despite overall sales not fully stabilizing, some key cities have shown signs of recovery since the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating a potential market rebound [10]. - The central economic work conference has outlined clear directives for 2026, focusing on risk stabilization and market support [8][9].

房地产行业 2025 年回顾与 2026 年展望： 行业研究 房地产行业 销售持续筑底，止跌回稳转向巩固稳定态势 工商部 | 马天姿 葛若寒 2026 年 1 月 28 日 摘要 2025 年，供给端在"严控增量"政策下深度收缩，房地产开发投资加速探底，新房供应 持续减少；需求端销售降幅收窄，呈止跌回稳态势，结构方面进一步向高能级城市及住宅需 求集中；百城新建住宅价格仍结构性微涨，但二手房市场"以价换量"行情未变；全年宏观 政策定调统筹风险化解与模式转型，从"止跌回稳"到"巩固稳定态势"；融资端修复效果有 限，信用利差同比有所下降，增信方式对降低信用利差的作用有限；行业内违约问题及债务 压力仍存在。从 2025 年全年房地产市场发展情况来看，我国房地产行业仍处于深度调整向弱 复苏过渡的筑底周期，政策托底不断巩固稳定态势，预计 2026 年市场有望逐步探明底部或将 进入筑底横盘阶段，"好房子"与城市更新的"优供给"举措将成为重要抓手，但长期仍需依 赖房地产发展新模式的建立与完善。 一、 行业供给能力分析 1.1 行业规模分析 2025 年，房地产开发投资加速探底，新开工规模深度收缩。2025 年，在全年行业严控 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of commercial real estate REITs is seen as a significant step towards stabilizing and improving expectations in the real estate industry, facilitating a shift from developers to asset managers and enhancing the value of existing commercial assets [2][4][10]. Group 1: Policy and Market Response - The first batch of eight commercial real estate REITs has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a total expected fundraising amount exceeding 30 billion yuan [2][4]. - The regulatory framework for commercial real estate REITs was officially introduced by the end of 2025, emphasizing support for assets with clear ownership and stable cash flows [3][8]. - The response from the industry has been positive, with significant participation from major developers and a wide range of asset types being included [4][9]. Group 2: Asset Types and Market Dynamics - The accepted REITs include various asset types such as hotels, office buildings, shopping centers, and service apartments, indicating a broadening of the asset categories eligible for REITs [2][4][5]. - The expansion of asset types allows previously self-held assets to have a channel for securitization, enhancing market liquidity and pricing capabilities [5][10]. - The inclusion of non-first-tier city assets in the REITs framework is expected to improve their market recognition and liquidity [5][10]. Group 3: Strategic Shift in Real Estate - The introduction of commercial real estate REITs is viewed as a transition from a "development and sales" model to a "holding and operation" model, promoting asset management as a core competency [10][11]. - The REITs framework encourages developers to retain partial equity in projects, ensuring operational stability while allowing for market-based fundraising [11]. - The shift towards REITs is seen as a necessary adaptation for the real estate industry, which is currently undergoing significant adjustments [10][11].

公募REITs进入对商业不动产的全覆盖时代。 从商业不动产REITs试点政策发布到首批产品陆续上报，历时仅一个月。 近日，上交所披露了8只已受理的商业不动产REITs项目，涉及的底层资产包括深圳来福士、合肥银泰 中心、广州保利中心项目、上海晶耀前滩等，涵盖酒店、写字楼与配套商业、奥特莱斯、购物中心、服 务式公寓等多种商业业态，预计募集金额合计超300亿元。 业内认为，商业不动产REITs试点的落地被视为加快构建房地产发展新模式、稳定并改善房地产行业预 期的重要举措。申万宏源证券分析师袁豪认为，商业不动产公募REITs的发展有利于拓宽企业直接融资 渠道，实现"投融管退"良性闭环，同时为企业提供战略转型升级的新选项，引导企业从"开发商"向"资 产管理商"实现战略转型，盘活商业存量资产价值。 各类不动产全覆盖 2025年12月31日，监管层以《关于推动不动产投资信托基金（REITs）市场高质量发展有关工作的通 知》《关于商业不动产投资信托基金试点有关工作的通知》等文件，正式推出商业不动产REITs，并且 强调了重点支持权属清晰、运营模式成熟、现金流持续稳定的商业综合体、商业零售、办公、酒店以及 其他具有商业属性的资 ...

聚焦政策方向：降息、收储和城市更新。 2026 年行业主要压力来自投资增速仍存压力，不排除对经济构成拖累。政策端能否有序推动降息和收储是对行业自 身投资增速不足的有效弥补。展望 2026 年，将继续重点关注降息、收储、城市更新落地进程。后续需要对以上数据保持密切跟踪。 风险提示。 1 ）市场环境偏冷，到位资金下行，开发商投资意愿难有起色。 2 ）二三线城市库存问题仍然严重，行业修复将呈现分化形态。 3 ）专项债收储 落地不及预期。 报告来源 报告导读： 行业供给缩量提质，新旧动能形成合力推动市场触底回暖。基于以上判断，我 们认为 2026 年重点城市销售有望率先寻找均衡点。长尾城市市场拖累依旧，但幅度收 窄。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 核心销售趋于均衡，投资开发仍需助力；报告日期：2026.01.29；报告作者： 涂力磊（分析师），登记编号：S0880525040101 谢皓宇（分析师），登记编号：S0880518010002 陈昭颖（分析师），登记编号：S0880525100002 我们认为当前 AH 房地产板块总市值与行业在经济中所处地位不匹配。 重要提醒 2025 年 ...

更多政策解读、城市月报、房企研究报告 ..... | 中指云 就在 N 换房退个税政策于 2022 年 9 月 30 日落地， 本次 为 第 二次 延期， 延期两年至 2027 年 底,继续支持改善性住房需求,支持居民改善住房条件。退税政策延期执行,一方面彰显 政策"连续性"，有利于稳定市场预期，另一方面，也将继续降低换房家庭的购房成本, 有助于促进改善性住房需求释放。预计未来更多到期政策将延续有效期,包含部分城市购 房补贴等政策。 要闻二:央行落地一系列金融政策,下调再贷款利率,商业用房最低首付比例降至 30% 中指 · 政策要闻丨减税、降息等一系列 楼市利好政策落地！（1. 12-1. 18) 政策要闻｜减税、降息等一系列楼市利好政策落地！（1.12-1.18) 摘要:财政部等三部门发文,换房退个税政策延期;央行下调再贷款利率,商业用房最低 首付比例降至 30%;《求是》刊文,再提高质量推进城市更新;金融监管总局推动房地产 融资协调机制常态化运行。北京、上海等地落地城市更新配套政策;西安、成都出台政策 完善住房保障。 1. 中央:多部门稳楼市政策相继落地 要闻一:三部门发文,换房退个税政策延期 2026年 ...