| | | 沪锡产业日报 2025-12-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 341800 | -2950 1月-2月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -1010 | 30 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 42835 | 105 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 56040 | -5121 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -3210 | -729 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 4675 | 50 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 8095 | 704 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 115 | 0 | | | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 8331 | -9 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 336350 | -3450 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 338070 | -1350 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差(日,元/吨) ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic refinery profits are shrinking, and production is expected to decline significantly. The export window may close again due to the rebound of the Shanghai-London ratio [3]. - The downstream market is entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are weakening, while the automotive sector shows some bright spots due to policy support [3]. - The zinc price is expected to have a strong adjustment. Attention should be paid to the support level of 23,000 yuan/ton and the upper resistance level of 23,400 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 23,230 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the 01 - 02 contract spread is - 40 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc price is 3,096.5 dollars/ton, up 18.5 dollars; the total position of Shanghai Zinc is 201,880 lots, up 3,161 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 3,793 lots, up 514 lots; the Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 76,017 tons, down 4,560 tons; the LME inventory is 98,975 tons, down 275 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on SMM is 23,260 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 23,350 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 30 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is - 29.14 dollars/ton, up 4.29 dollars [3]. - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 20,010 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons, down 27,600 tons [3]. - The global zinc mine production is 1.0666 million tons, down 31,000 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 665,000 tons, up 40,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, down 164,500 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, down 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, up 6,040.84 tons [3]. - The social zinc inventory is 1.192 million tons, up 500 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, up 20,000 tons; the sales volume is 2.42 million tons, up 140,000 tons [3]. - The new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, up 43.9531 million square meters; the housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, up 37.3212 million square meters [3]. - The automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, up 240,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 15.64%, down 3.2%; the 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option is 13.16%, down 3.2% [3]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 15.64%, down 3.2%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option is 11.65%, down 0.2% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference plans to stabilize the real estate market in 2026, control the increment, reduce the inventory, and optimize the supply according to local conditions [3]. - The US GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the core PCE increased by 2.9%. The October durable goods orders decreased by 2.2% month - on - month [3]. - Trump proposed conditions for the Fed to cut interest rates, and some people suggested adjusting the inflation target [3].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：人民日报经济社会 2026年，如何着力稳定房地产市场？如何高质量开展城市更新？最近，全国住房城乡建设工作会议召 开，经社君了解到一些最新情况。这里专门梳理一下，供您参考。 先说住建部门的一个总体判断："房地产仍有较大发展潜力"。 2025年，我国新房和二手房交易总量基本稳定，但区域市场走势出现分化，各城市房价涨跌不一，市场 的复杂性和多元性愈发凸显。 这次会议提出，要看到我国新型城镇化仍在持续推进，城市存量优化调整也有广阔空间，人民群众 对"好房子"形成新期待，房地产仍有较大发展潜力。 按照经社君的理解，潜力来自多个方面：比如，新落户农民工、新毕业大学生等"新市民"刚性住房需求 有待持续释放；又如，由于区位分布、持有结构不均衡，相当部分城镇住房存在"以旧换新""以小换 大"的改善性需求。数据显示，已有38个城市开展老旧住房自主更新、原拆原建。 再看住建部门的三方面重点部署—— 第一方面，着眼优化供给，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给。 结合城市更新、城中村改造盘活利用存量用地，推动收购存量商品房用作保障性住房、安置房、宿舍、 人才房 ...

Core Insights - The national housing and urban construction work conference highlighted the achievements during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and outlined key tasks for the "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the need for high-quality development in housing and urban construction by 2025 and the stabilization of the real estate market by 2026 [1][6] Group 1: Urban Renewal Progress - Significant progress has been made in urban renewal during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with over 240,000 old urban residential areas renovated, benefiting more than 41 million households and 110 million people [2] - 130,000 elevators were added, and 167,000 old elevators were updated, along with the addition of 3.5 million parking spaces and 65,000 community service facilities [2] - 840,000 kilometers of underground pipelines for water, gas, and heating were updated, and over 20,000 pocket parks and 2,700 kilometers of urban greenways were created [2] Group 2: Housing Delivery and Improvement - The completion of housing delivery tasks during the "14th Five-Year Plan" was emphasized, with approximately 5 billion square meters of new residential properties sold and over 11 million units of various types of affordable housing constructed, benefiting over 30 million people [3] - A total of 6.5 trillion yuan in personal housing loans from the housing provident fund were issued, supporting 9.4 trillion yuan in withdrawals for housing consumption [3] - The meeting stressed the importance of addressing housing issues as both a livelihood and development concern, aiming to stabilize the real estate market and improve housing conditions [3] Group 3: Construction Industry Status - The construction industry is recognized as a crucial pillar of the national economy, maintaining a GDP contribution of over 6.5% during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on modernization and international projects [4] - The need for systemic reforms in the construction industry was highlighted, aiming to enhance the quality of building products and cultivate a modern workforce [4] Group 4: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The meeting acknowledged significant changes in the supply-demand relationship in the real estate market, with ongoing urbanization and rising expectations for quality housing [5] - The importance of viewing the new and second-hand housing markets as a whole was emphasized, with a call for tailored policies to ensure sustainable development [5] Group 5: Stabilization of the Real Estate Market - The focus for 2026 includes stabilizing the real estate market through city-specific policies, inventory reduction, and optimizing supply [7] - The meeting called for the effective use of local government powers in real estate regulation and the support of both rigid and improved housing demands [7] - A new model for real estate development is to be established, emphasizing transparency in property sales and the protection of buyers' rights [7]

新华财经北京12月24日电（记者高婷）12月22日至23日，全国住房城乡建设工作会议在北京召开，全面盘点2025年工作，系统总结"十四五"时期住房城乡 建设事业发展成就，研究部署"十五五"时期和2026年重点任务。 会议强调，2026年是"十五五"开局之年，做好住房城乡建设工作意义重大。2026年，要着力抓好推进现代化人民城市建设、着力稳定房地产市场、加快建 筑业提质升级、夯实高质量发展基础支撑4方面工作。 转自：新华财经 58安居客研究院院长张波进一步表示，房企转型将依托三项制度实现资金稳健化，有效降杠杆、拓宽融资渠道，同时，聚焦"好房子"建设。他认为，房企 应从房子建造者转向全周期服务者，强化物业与社区运营。从58安居客线上数据来看，有良好口碑的项目往往会比周边同类二手房价溢价10%-15%，找房 热度也会保持高位。 我国房地产发展仍有较大潜力和空间 12月16日，住房城乡建设部部长倪虹发表署名文章表示，房地产产业链条长、关联度高，经过20多年快速发展，有力支撑了我国城镇化和经济社会发展。 2024年房地产业和建筑业增加值占国内生产总值的比重合计达13%。长远看，我国房地产发展仍有较大潜力和空间。 记者重 ...

央视网消息：近日，全国住房城乡建设工作会议在北京召开。"十四五"期间房地产市场总体情况如何？明年，房地产市场将重点围绕哪些方面持续发 力？ 中央经济工作会议指出，要着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策"控增量、去库存、优供给"。住房城乡建设部表示，2026年将从供地、收储等多个方面来着 力稳定房地产市场。 住房城乡建设部部长 倪虹：房地产过剩的城市要停止通过征地来新增房地产用地，重点结合城市更新、城中村改造盘活利用存量的土地，推动收购存 量商品房用于保障性住房、安置房、（学校）宿舍、人才房等。 住房城乡建设部表示，"十四五"期间，全国累计销售新建商品住宅约50亿平方米，建设筹集各类保障性住房和城中村、城市危旧房改造等安置住房1100 多万套（间）、惠及3000多万群众，保交楼、保交房任务全面完成。"十五五"时期，要准确把握房地产市场供求关系的重大变化，推动房地产高质量发展。 住房城乡建设部部长 倪虹：长远看，我国新型城镇化仍在持续推进，城市存量优化调整还有广阔的空间，房地产拥有较大的发展潜力，二手房交易占 比上升是今后一个时期的趋势。 针对房地产发展新模式，倪虹指出，要处理好当前和长远、顶层设计和因城施策、市场和保障 ...

Group 1: Domestic News - Xi Jinping emphasized the responsibilities of central enterprises to better serve the national agenda and contribute to high-quality economic development, urging them to focus on core functions and enhance competitiveness [2] - Premier Li Qiang highlighted the importance of central enterprises in advancing new infrastructure construction and ensuring the self-sufficiency of industrial and supply chains, while also calling for deeper reforms in state-owned enterprises [3] - The National Housing and Urban-Rural Development Conference acknowledged the significant changes in the real estate market and emphasized the potential for further development, advocating for a new model of real estate development that meets public housing needs [4] Group 2: International News - The U.S. GDP for Q3 grew by 4.3%, exceeding expectations of 3.3%, with consumer spending showing strong growth at 3.5%, indicating robust economic expansion despite rising borrowing costs [5] - U.S. durable goods orders fell by 2.2% in October, significantly below the expected decline of 1.5%, although year-on-year growth remained at 4.7%, indicating resilience in manufacturing orders [6] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed signs of strength with a notable entry of configuration funds, leading to a decline in yields for 10-year government bonds to 1.8350% and 10-year policy bank bonds to 1.898% [11] - The convertible bond market experienced adjustments, with major indices declining and a majority of individual bonds falling, indicating a mixed performance in the market [17] Group 4: Commodity Market - International crude oil prices continued to rise, with WTI crude up by approximately 0.64% to $58.38 per barrel, and natural gas prices surged over 10% [7] Group 5: Financial Market Operations - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 593 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 760 billion yuan due to maturing reverse repos [8] - The funding rates remained low, with DR001 and DR007 declining to 1.269% and 1.411% respectively, indicating a continued loose monetary environment [9]

本报讯 记者余嘉欣报道 12月22日至23日，全国住房城乡建设工作会议在北京召开。会议全面盘点 2025年工作，系统总结"十四五"时期住房城乡建设事业发展成就，研究部署"十五五"时期和2026年重点 任务。 "2024年底召开的会议上，持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳被放在2025年工作的第一位，而今年 的会议上，2026年四大工作位列第一的是以城市更新为主的人民城市建设，这是因为保交房任务全面完 成以后，对居民预期、信心形成支撑。同时市场层面，以新房和二手住房合并计算的总交易量已经实现 了量的稳定。这意味着防风险工作取得积极成效，接下来，是继续推进稳定房地产，更重要的是加快新 模式转型。"广东省城规院住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉分析。 会议强调，2026年是"十五五"开局之年，做好住房城乡建设工作意义重大，要着力抓好推进现代化 人民城市建设、着力稳定房地产市场、加快建筑业提质升级、夯实高质量发展基础支撑等四方面工作。 城市是现代化建设的重要载体、人民幸福生活的重要空间。会议指出，做好"十五五"时期城市工 作，要深刻把握城市发展所处的历史方位，我国城镇化正从快速增长期转向稳定发展期，城市发展正从 大规模增量 ...

近日召开的全国住房城乡建设工作会议，在全面盘点2025年工作时指出，"好房子"建设起步成 势。从内容看，住建部年初提出的"好房子"三个抓手，即"立标准、强科技、抓项目"取得了积 极成效。比如，新的《住宅项目规范》正式实施，构建了"6633"（六不、六防、三省、三 要）、"365"（三用、六优、五支撑）等"好房子"的建造体系；指导行业领军企业发挥示范作 用，以"揭榜挂帅"等推动50多类新型建材研发应用；举办全国"好房子"设计大赛。 同时，2025年"好房子"探索还不止于此。会议还提出，42个城市实施房屋全生命周期安全管理 制度试点。一体化推进好房子、好小区、好社区、好城区建设，开展物业服务领域突出问题集 中整治，推动问题整改。完成106个完整社区试点，建设改造养老、托育等各类服务设施2000 多个，新增停车位2.6万个，增补提升公共活动场地和公共绿地71.3万平方米。可见，"好房 子"探索从标准建立和物质技术等硬件层面，延展至好服务和好配套等软件方面。 可以讲，"好房子"建设在起步上的势头很好。今年以来，各类"好房子"项目成为新房销售市场 的一抹亮色，不仅引领市场供给，夯实居住属性和高质量发展的基础，还激发了美 ...

华夏时报记者 李凯旋 北京报道 12月10日至11日举办的中央经济工作会议指出，着力稳定房地产市场，加快构建房地产发展新模式。 2023年底，有关部门提出"房地产发展新模式"这一理念。2024年，房地产围绕着供需端改革、房企化债 等重点发力。今年以来，房地产在"新模式"上更进一步，进入高质量发展阶段。 近日，中央财办方面表示，我国房地产高质量发展仍有较大空间，包括刚性需求和改善性需求。今年， 房地产持续对供需两端进行修复，不合理的限制性政策逐渐退出历史舞台，房企化债效果显著，产品升 级，"好房子"建设蔚然成风。 "底线"一词颇值得研究。上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进对《华夏时报》记者表示，这意味着房地 产存在不可触碰的底线，不能出现房价不可控下跌、房企出现恶性违约事件等。 行业资产负债表迎来修复 年末的中央经济工作会议则在"稳定"一词上再次重点着墨，指出着力稳定房地产市场。"结合化解风险 一同来看，债务风险和市场稳定协同，筑牢行业发展安全底线，化解风险与稳定市场统筹推进，这一部 署将为房地产行业营造更安全的发展环境。"58安居客研究院院长张波对《华夏时报》记者表示。 需要化解风险的主体之一便是房企，年内，多 ...