Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecasts for the real estate sector and covered developers due to the immediate impact of tariff measures on employment and household income, delaying the stabilization of housing prices in first- and second-tier cities to mid-2026 [2][4]. Group 1: Market Forecast Adjustments - The forecast for total housing sales volume in 2025E-2026E is expected to drop to levels comparable to 2010-2011 and 2014, with primary market GFA sold projected at 894 million sqm in 2025E, down from previous estimates [3][11]. - Property sales in RMB trillion are forecasted to decline from 11.7 in 2023 to 8.4 in 2025E, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 13% [3][11]. - Average selling prices (ASP) in the primary market are expected to decrease by 5% in 2025E and 3% in 2026E, stabilizing by the end of 2026E [3][11]. Group 2: Secondary Market Insights - The secondary market is anticipated to face significant pressure, with sales volume expected to decline by an average of 13% for 2025-2027, driven by widening bid-ask spreads and deteriorating supply quality [4][15]. - The average ASP in the secondary market is projected to decrease by 7% in 2025E and 4% in 2026E, reflecting weakened demand-supply dynamics [17][21]. - The turnover rate in the secondary market is estimated to drop by 0.3 percentage points nationwide from 2024 to 2026E, indicating a contraction in market activity [16][20]. Group 3: Developer Performance and Strategy - Goldman Sachs has lowered the core EPS forecasts for covered developers by 4%-6% for 2025-2027, reflecting pressures from sales scale, profit margins, and land reserve quality [4][55]. - Developers are increasingly focusing on land banking in core cities, with over 80% of total land acquisition value in 2024 concentrated in the top-10 cities, indicating a strategic shift towards higher-quality land [40][54]. - The average gross profit margin (GPM) for new acquisitions in 1Q25 is estimated to show a 7 percentage point improvement compared to previous reported figures, suggesting a potential recovery in profitability for developers [51][55].

研究中心专题卡介绍 研究专题卡是克而瑞研究中心推出的一套系统化的房地产企业情报定制方案，旨在用专业的行业知识与精湛的 行业预判为房企预测走势、预警风险、提供借鉴。 每年为企业提供『宏观研究、市场研究、企业管控、项目借鉴、营销案例、产品案例、运营模式、企业深度、 企业融资及盈利模式』十大类、五十个专题的选择。 产品类型 服务形式 企业可根据自身需求从专题列表中选择适合专题打包组成定制专题卡，但全年累积不得超过会员自身等级规定数量。 2025年新增专题 点击 红色标题 阅读缩略版 专题 | 2025年地方供地计划探析：规模压降、结构优化与市场效应 2025年一季度推动行业去库存规模已达1亿平方米，2025年初土地市场的结构性回暖正在为行业复苏带来更多 信心。 专题 | 一季度小阳春特征解析和持续性展望 2025年一季度楼市企稳，热点城市回暖，二季度或延续弱复苏。 ※ 2025年一季度中国房地产行业总结与展 望 总结与展望 | 2025年一季度中国房地产行业总结与展望（上篇） 总结与展望 | 2025年一季度中国房地产行业总结与展望（中篇） 总结与展望 | 2025年一季度中国房地产行业总结与展望（下篇） 专题 | ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：000560 证券简称：我爱我家 公告编号：2025-017号 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 重要内容提示： 1.董事会、监事会及董事、监事、高级管理人员保证季度报告的真实、准确、完整，不存在虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 2.公司负责人、主管会计工作负责人及会计机构负责人(会计主管人员)声明：保证季度报告中财务信息 的真实、准确、完整。 3.第一季度报告是否经审计 □是 √否 一、主要财务数据 （一）主要会计数据和财务指标 公司是否需追溯调整或重述以前年度会计数据 □是 √否 ■ （二）非经常性损益项目和金额 √适用 □不适用 单位：元 ■ 其他符合非经常性损益定义的损益项目的具体情况 □适用 √不适用 公司不存在其他符合非经常性损益定义的损益项目的具体情况。 将《公开发行证券的公司信息披露解释性公告第1号一一非经常性损益》中列举的非经常性损益项目界 定为经常性损益项目的情况说明 单位：元 ■ □适用 √不适用 公司不存在将《公开发行证券的公司信息披 ...

2025年以来，随着房地产市场"止跌回稳"势头巩固，土地市场也持续迎来积极变化。 包括北京、杭州、成都等在内的核心城市成交楼面价接连创新高。在此带动下，台州、嘉兴、重庆等更 多城市土地市场活跃度也在持续提升。同时，一批中小民营房企涌现，加快拿地步伐，市场信心显现边 际改善。 中小民营房企 积极入市 2025年3月份，得益于供给放量、房企营销力度增加等因素，克而瑞地产研究数据显示，百强房企3月份 实现销售操盘金额3175.7亿元，环比增长68.8%。随着销售端数据回暖，房企在土地市场的布局意愿也 同步增强。 根据中指研究院数据，截至4月22日，22个重点城市溢价成交宅地中，民企拿地金额占比已升至24%， 不少城市土拍市场中小民营开发商"面孔"持续增加。 4月14日，浙江台州市椒江区一宗涉宅地块吸引25轮竞价，最终由方远房地产集团有限公司(以下简 称"方远地产")旗下台州湾新区方远乐居置业有限公司以总价2.18亿元竞得，楼面价8431元/平方米，溢 价率达12.38%。 据了解，方远地产为台州本地民营房企，业务涵盖住宅开发、工业地产、商业地产以及保障房代建等全 产品线开发链。 同样表现活跃的还有河南本地民营房企河 ...

Summary of Real Estate Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the real estate industry, specifically the land market in the first quarter of 2025, highlighting trends in land supply, transaction volumes, and pricing dynamics across different city tiers [1][2][3]. Key Points Land Supply and Demand - In Q1 2025, land supply in first-tier cities increased by nearly 14% year-on-year, while national land supply decreased by 19%, indicating a faster supply pace in first-tier cities despite overall insufficiency [1][2]. - The total land transaction area nationwide fell by 11% year-on-year, but transaction value rose significantly by 19%, suggesting a shift in transaction structure with a notable increase in floor prices, particularly in first-tier cities where prices rose by 41% [1][2]. Pricing Trends - The average premium rate for land transactions in sample cities rose by 3.1 percentage points to 7.2% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities exceeding 15%, reflecting optimism among developers regarding the new housing market in core cities [1][4]. - The floor price of land transactions nationwide increased by 34% year-on-year, reaching 3,731 RMB/sqm, with first-tier cities seeing a 41% increase to 36,000 RMB/sqm [2]. Developer Activity - Leading real estate companies showed a significant increase in land acquisition activity, particularly state-owned enterprises, with some companies exceeding 100% in land acquisition intensity compared to sales [1][6]. - Approximately 75% of new land value in Q1 2025 was attributed to the top ten companies, indicating a clear divide between leading and trailing firms in the market [6][7]. Future Market Outlook - The demand-supply structure is expected to favor demand over supply in first-tier cities by 2025, supporting price increases, while lower-tier cities will need time to balance supply and demand [1][5]. - The recovery of the real estate market is anticipated to extend from first-tier cities to lower-tier cities, with varying recovery speeds and cycles [5][11]. Government Policies and Market Support - The government is expected to enhance market conditions through policies such as increasing local government special bonds for land acquisition, which has already seen a proposed area of over 4.3 million sqm and a funding amount exceeding 1.3 billion RMB [3][8]. - The overall sentiment in the real estate market is improving, with government interventions expected to further stabilize and boost market confidence [12]. Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on property companies with stable liquidity and high dividend yields, such as China Resources, Vanke, and Poly, while also considering trend-driven investments in companies like Beike, which are closely tied to the second-hand housing market [14]. - Companies that are reversing trends, such as JinDi and Longfor, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities as their credit issues are being resolved [14]. Additional Insights - The land transaction structure is crucial for influencing housing supply and pricing trends, with a strong land market in first and second-tier cities indicating a more robust new housing supply and greater market confidence [9][10]. - The real estate sector's future direction is expected to focus on virtual assets alongside physical assets, with a shift in housing demand towards residential needs rather than speculative investments [13].

导 语 3月，房企供货节奏有所加快，但规模仍难及往年同期。 30个重点城市新增供应881万平方米，环比增长157%，同比下降 27%，仍然处在近7年来同期最低位。春节后季节性推盘放量及政策宽松推动供应短期回升，但市场信心不足导致同比持续 走弱。 一线供应发力，北京放量尤为明显。 4个一线城市整体预计供应面积163万平方米，环比增长236%，因去年基数较高，单月 同比下降52%。北上广深均呈现出环比回升、同比持降，其中沪深累计同比跌幅均超4成，供给约束依旧显著。 二三线城市供应环比涨幅不及一线，长沙、宁波逆势高增，济南、珠海深度调整 。26个重点二三线城市合计供应718万平方 米，环比增长144%，同比下降18%。其中长沙、宁波等迎来结构性增长，核心区多个改善项目集中入市，房企抢占政策宽 松窗口期，同环比倍增，济南、珠海等供给"塌陷"，3月新房供应规模均不足10万平方米，一季度累计同比跌幅均在7成以 上。其余多数城市环比持增，同比回落，供应规模仍处相对低位。 | 能级 | 城市 | 3月 | 环比 | 目比 | 季度 | 累计同比. | 能级 | 城市 | 3月 | 环比 | 目比 | 季度 | 累计同比 | ...

在一系列利好政策支持下，一季度，房地产市场总体筑底企稳，重点城市新房、二手房成交同环比均有 增长，3月更是迎来局部"小阳春"行情；与此同时，住宅用地土地出让金同比增长两成，平均溢价率创 2021年下半年以来新高，核心城市优质地块土拍热度较高，多个城市成交楼面价创新高。 业内人士预计，二季度，随着各项政策落地加快，新房市场成交规模或延续弱复苏走势，绝对量好于一季 度水平；二手房市场成交将延续稳中有增态势，回暖程度将好于新房。大中城市房价将迎来更多积极信 号，核心城市土拍热度将保持高位，高总价、高溢价地块成交常态化，而土地市场的持续回暖也将反馈到 购房者信心，助力2025年房地产市场加快企稳。 重点城市楼市成交筑底企稳 今年一季度，房地产市场总体运行平稳，市场止跌回稳取得一定成效。 从新房市场来看，中指研究院的数据显示，春节后市场交易回归常态，一线及部分核心二线城市市场修复 更加突出。一季度（截至3月27日），深圳新建商品住宅网签成交面积同比增长超80%，上海、广州、杭 州、宁波、南京等城市同比增长均超20%。从重点城市成交结构来看，改善性需求是新房市场重要支撑， 120平方米以上户型成交占比有所提升。 克而瑞研 ...

在一系列利好政策支持下，一季度，房地产市场总体筑底企稳，重点城市新房、二手房成交同环比均有增长，3月更是迎来局部"小阳春"行情；与此同时，住 宅用地土地出让金同比增长两成，平均溢价率创2021年下半年以来新高，核心城市优质地块土拍热度较高，多个城市成交楼面价创新高。 业内人士预计，二季度，随着各项政策落地加快，新房市场成交规模或延续弱复苏走势，绝对量好于一季度水平；二手房市场成交将延续稳中有增态势，回暖程度 将好于新房。大中城市房价将迎来更多积极信号，核心城市土拍热度将保持高位，高总价、高溢价地块成交常态化，而土地市场的持续回暖也将反馈到购房者信 心，助力2025年房地产市场加快企稳。 重点城市楼市成交筑底企稳 今年一季度，房地产市场总体运行平稳，市场止跌回稳取得一定成效。 尤其是上海、杭州等核心城市土地市场升温明显。一季度，上海成交10宗宅地，9宗溢价，5宗溢价率超30%；杭州出让32宗地中有28宗溢价成交，多宗地块溢价 率超40%，有4宗溢价率超70%。另外，杭州、北京、成都等地在优质地块带动下，成交楼面价创新高。 对于核心城市优质地块土拍升温的主要原因，中指研究院指数研究部总经理曹晶晶认为，一是房企对核 ...

【二手房成交】 1-2 月一线城市楼市成交同比正增长，弱能级城市仍 然承压；土拍溢价率创 42 个月以来新高 核心观点 【新房成交】 房地产行业|证券研究报告—行业月报 2025 年 3 月 13 日 强于大市 投资建议 房地产行业2025年2月月报 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 房地产行业 证券分析师：夏亦丰 (8621)20328348 yifeng.xia@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070005 证券分析师：许佳璐 (8621)20328710 jialu.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110002 因去年同期恰逢春节假期低基数原因，2 月新房成交面积同比增速转正。2 月 40 城新房成交面积环比-14.2%，同比+25.0%，同比增速由负转 正，同比增速较上月上升 36.6pct。1-2 月 40 城新房成交面积累计同比+1.8%。 从各能级城市来看，高能级城市新房成交量同比正增长，一线城市因新政利好效应增幅居前，三四线城市同比负增长。1）一线城市：2 月新 房成交面积环比-29.8%，同比 ...