Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Caitong Securities in 2024 showed a decline in revenue but an increase in net profit, while the first quarter of 2025 experienced significant profit drop due to pressure on proprietary trading business. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Caitong Securities achieved operating revenue of 6.29 billion, a year-over-year (yoy) decrease of 3.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.34 billion, a yoy increase of 3.9% [1] - For Q1 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 290 million, reflecting a yoy decrease of 36.5% and a quarter-over-quarter (qoq) decrease of 66.6% [1] - The main revenue sources in 2024 included brokerage, investment banking, asset management, net interest, net investment, and long equity investment, with respective revenues of 1.41 billion, 520 million, 1.55 billion, 610 million, 1.50 billion, and 520 million [1] Group 2: Cost Management - In 2024, the company maintained good cost control with management expenses of 3.46 billion, a yoy decrease of 8.5%, resulting in a management fee ratio of 56.1%, down 3.0 percentage points yoy [2] Group 3: Investment and Assets - By the end of 2024, the total assets of the company were 144.6 billion, a yoy increase of 8.1%, while net assets were 36.4 billion, a yoy increase of 5.2% [3] - The investment income for 2024 was 1.5 billion, a yoy decrease of 14.6%, with an annualized investment return rate of 2.21%, down 0.39 percentage points yoy [3] - As of Q1 2025, total assets decreased to 138.9 billion, a decline of 3.9% from the beginning of the year, while net assets slightly increased to 36.6 billion, up 0.6% [3] Group 4: Brokerage and Asset Management - The brokerage business showed strong performance with a net income market share increase of 5.1%, achieving net income from agency trading of 1.22 billion, a yoy increase of 21.0% [4] - In asset management, the revenue for 2024 was 1.55 billion, a yoy decrease of 0.3%, while the AUM for Caitong Fund was 53.6 billion, down 37.0% from the beginning of the year [5] - For Q1 2025, asset management revenue was 260 million, a yoy decrease of 17.5%, while long equity investment revenue was 80 million, a yoy increase of 42.5% [5] Group 5: Future Projections - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is estimated to be 2.22 billion, 2.40 billion, and 2.57 billion, reflecting yoy changes of -5%, +8%, and +7% respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HK$16.59, corresponding to a PB of 1.2 times for 2025 [6]. Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of CNY 32.161 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.9%, while the underwriting profit decreased by 43.9% to CNY 5.713 billion. The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) rose to 98.8%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [1][3]. - The company’s investment income significantly increased by 67.9% year-on-year to CNY 34.937 billion, primarily due to the strategic allocation of secondary equity assets during market lows [5]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the company reported a net profit of CNY 32.161 billion, up 30.9% year-on-year, with an underwriting profit of CNY 5.713 billion, down 43.9%. The COR was 98.8%, up 1.0 percentage points, and ROE was 13.0%, up 2.2 percentage points. The proposed final dividend per share is CNY 0.332, leading to a total annual dividend of CNY 0.54, an increase of 10.4% year-on-year [1]. Liability Side - The insurance service revenue for 2024 was CNY 485.223 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, with a market share of 31.8%, down 0.7 percentage points. The revenue from auto insurance was CNY 294.701 billion, up 4.5%, while non-auto insurance revenue was CNY 190.522 billion, up 8.8% [2][3]. Profitability - The COR increased by 1.0 percentage points to 98.8% in 2024, driven by a rise in the loss ratio, which increased by 2.4 percentage points to 73%. The increase in loss ratio was attributed to severe disaster impacts and rising liability costs due to declining interest rates. The company implemented cost reduction measures, reducing the expense ratio by 1.4 percentage points to 25.8% [3][4]. Investment Side - By the end of 2024, the total investment scale reached CNY 676.512 billion, a 12.6% increase from the previous year, with a total investment return rate of 5.5%, up 2 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company aims for steady growth, with projected net profit growth rates of 29.9%, 16.4%, and 20.5% for 2025-2027. The BPS is expected to be CNY 12.57, CNY 14.06, and CNY 15.82 for the respective years, with corresponding PB ratios of 1.04, 0.93, and 0.83 [6][13].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in net profit and dividends per share (DPS) for 2024, exceeding expectations, indicating strong financial performance and investor returns [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit of 26.2 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 201.1%, with a fourth-quarter profit of 5.55 billion yuan, showing substantial improvement compared to a loss of 0.83 billion yuan in Q4 2023 [1][2]. - The annual DPS reached 2.53 yuan, up 197.6% year-over-year, with a dividend payout ratio of 30.1%, maintaining a level similar to 2023 [1][2]. New Business Value (NBV) and Premiums - The company reported an NBV of 6.253 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 106.8%, with a first-year premium growth rate of 14.6% [3]. - Long-term first-year premiums reached 27.22 billion yuan, up 15.6% year-over-year, accounting for 70.1% of total premiums [3]. Investment Returns - The company achieved net, total, and comprehensive investment returns of 3.2%, 5.8%, and 8.5%, respectively, with total investment income significantly boosted by fair value changes amounting to 37.5 billion yuan [4]. - The proportion of OCI assets increased to 30.7%, with a notable rise in high-dividend OCI equity investments [4]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from improved agent quality, product structure optimization, and a higher proportion of equity investments, leading to greater investment return elasticity [5]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 27.9 billion yuan, 29.3 billion yuan, and 30.8 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 6.5%, 5.1%, and 4.9% [5].

财险量升价减，大灾阶段性影响赔付表现。24 年公司保险服务收入yoy+8.1%至1913.97 亿元，COR 达 98.6%，yoy+0.9pct；其中，综合赔付率/综合费用率yoy+1.7pct /-0.8pct 至70.8%/27.8%，承保利润yoy- 35.5%至26.72 亿元。1）车险：保费yoy+3.7%至1073.02 亿元，COR 受大灾影响yoy+0.6pct 至98.2%，承 保利润yoy-22.5%至18.68 亿元。新能源车险保费贡献占比达17%。2）非车险：保费yoy+10.7%至939.41 亿元，COR 受自然灾害频发影响+1.4pct 至99.1%，承保利润yoy-53.5%至8.04 亿元。 投资表现亮眼。2024 年权益市场反弹带动投资收益高增，公司净/总/综合投资收益率分别为 3.8%/5.6%/6.0%，yoy-0.2pct/+3.0pct/+3.3pct；期末，公司投资资产yoy+21.5%至2.73万亿元，债权类资 产、股权类资产、现金及现金等价物、定期存款、投资性房地产占比分别为 75.9%/14.5%/1.5%/6.4%/0.3%，较23 年末水平+1.4pc ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company's life insurance new business value (NBV) for 2024 is projected at 17.282 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 57.7% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 44.96 billion, reflecting a 64.9% year-on-year growth [7] - The operating profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 34.425 billion, with a slight increase of 2.5% year-on-year [7] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 404.089 billion, a 25% increase from 2023 [2] - The operating profit for 2024 is expected to be 55.711 billion, a significant increase of 74% compared to 2023 [2] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 48.251 billion, with a growth rate of 7% [8] Business Performance - The company reported a total insurance premium income of 201.243 billion for property insurance, marking a 6.8% increase year-on-year [7] - The combined ratio for property insurance is 98.6%, which is an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The investment asset scale at the end of 2024 is projected to be 27.34457 trillion, a 21.5% increase from the beginning of the year [7] Profitability Metrics - The return on equity (ROE) is reported at 15.4% [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be 4.67, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.8 [8] - The book value per share (PB) is projected at 1.0 for 2024 [8]