点击 上方 硬AI 关注我们 如果Scaling Law继续有效， 继续看好AI系统组件供应商（如芯片、网络设备等），谨慎对待那些不得不持续投入巨额资 本支出的科技巨头。如果预训练缩放停滞： 看好科技巨头（因为自由现金流将回升），并关注那些拥有大量用户、能够 从推理成本下降中获益的应用类股票。 硬·AI 作者 |硬 AI 编辑 | 硬 AI 还抱着"越大越好"的AI模型不放？华尔街投行巴克莱最新研报给出了一个颠覆性的预测： AI行业正经历一 场"巨变"（Big Shift），"推理模型"和"Agent"将成为新时代的弄潮儿，而"大力出奇迹"的传统大模型， 可能很快就要过气了！ 这场变革的核心，是AI模型从"死记硬背"到"举一反三"的进化。过去，我们追求更大的模型、更多的参 数、更海量的训练数据，坚信"量变产生质变"。但现在，巴克莱指出，这条路可能已经走到了尽头。 算力无底洞、成本高企、收益却难以匹配……传统大模型的"军备竞赛"让众多科技巨头苦不堪言。更要命 的是，用户真的需要那么"大"的模型吗？在许多场景下，一个更"聪明"、更会推理的小模型，反而能提供 更精准、更高效的服务。 这究竟是怎么回事？对于投资者来说 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Supercomputing Internet Platform announced the launch of Alibaba's open-source inference model QwQ-32B API interface service, offering users 1 million free tokens [1] Group 1: Product Launch - The QwQ-32B is the latest inference model released by Alibaba's Qwen team, built on Qwen2.5-32B with reinforcement learning [1] - The API service for QwQ-32B will be available starting this week [1] Group 2: Performance Metrics - According to official benchmark results, QwQ-32B performs comparably to DeepSeek-R1 on the AIME24 assessment set for mathematical capabilities and significantly outperforms o1-mini and similarly sized R1 distilled models in code evaluation on LiveCodeBench [1]

Core Insights - Alibaba has released and open-sourced a new inference model named Tongyi Qianwen QwQ-32B, which features 32 billion parameters [1] - The performance of this model is comparable to that of DeepSeek-R1, which has 671 billion parameters, with 370 billion of those being activated [1]

Market Overview - The main board led the gains with notable increases in stocks such as Demingli (+6.12%), Heertai (+4.03%), and Yingfangwei (+2.86%) [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board saw significant growth, particularly with Yuncong Technology-UW (+19.98%) and Tiande Yu (+13.56%) [1] - Active sub-industries included SW Digital Chip Design (+0.55%) and SW Passive Components (+0.33%) [1] Domestic News - CINNO Research reported that the total investment in China's semiconductor industry for 2024 is projected to be 683.1 billion RMB, a decrease of 41.6% year-on-year, although semiconductor equipment investment grew by 1.0% to 40.23 billion RMB [1] - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed between Jinghe Integration and Sitwei, marking a significant upgrade in their partnership, with plans for monthly delivery capabilities of 15,000 and 45,000 Stacked wafers in different phases [1] - DeepSeek announced the release of three optimized parallel strategies, enhancing GPU utilization through detailed computational and communication optimizations [1] - Chip Origin announced the launch of its latest AI image processing IP series, including AINR1000, AINR2000, AISR1000, and AISR2000, aimed at various sectors such as automotive and consumer electronics [1] Company Announcements - Huahai Chengke reported a revenue of 332 million RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.21%, with a net profit of 40.8 million RMB, up 28.97% [2] - Tiancheng Technology announced a revenue of 381 million RMB for 2024, reflecting a 12.32% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 76.84 million RMB, up 31.19% [2] - Weidao Nano reported a revenue of 2.7 billion RMB for 2024, a significant increase of 60.74%, attributed to growth in the photovoltaic and semiconductor sectors [2] - Chip Source Micro reported a revenue of 1.77 billion RMB for 2024, a 3.09% increase, with a net profit of 211 million RMB, supported by successful validation of its high-temperature sulfuric acid cleaning machine [2] International News - CounterPoint Research projected that global TV shipments will reach 230 million units in 2024, a 2% year-on-year increase, with China surpassing South Korea in shipments for the first time [2] - CTV Finance reported that global smart glasses sales are expected to reach 2.983 million units in 2024, with a projected fourfold increase in 2025, as over 40 companies, including Apple and Google, enter the market [2] - Nvidia announced that demand for inference is accelerating, driven by new models like DeepSeek R1 and OpenAI o3, with the high-end Blackwell Ultra chip expected to launch in the second half of the year [2] - TrendForce reported that global DRAM industry revenue is expected to exceed 28 billion USD in Q4 2024, a 9.9% increase from the previous quarter, driven by rising contract prices for Server DDR5 [2]

从大语言模型到推理模型。 文丨 贺乾明 但 OpenAI CEO 山姆·阿尔特曼（Sam Altman）的好心情很快就被打断。在他宣布 o1 全量上线的推文下， 排在第一的评论是："到底什么时候能用上新的语音功能？？" 他立刻反击："能不能先花几个星期感谢感 谢这魔法般的智能，然后再要新玩具？" 这位用户追着阿尔特曼要的不是什么新玩具，是 OpenAI 在今年 5 月就允诺即将到来的 GPT-4o 端到端语 音功能。在当时的现场演示中，这个新的 AI 声音自然、反应极快，还知道什么时候插话，让旁人难辨真 假。按官方时间表，上千万 ChatGPT 付费用户本将在几周内用上这功能，但一直被跳票到现在。 过去一年里，OpenAI 的产品都是类似的 "期货"：GPT-4 已上线一年多，OpenAI 的下一代模型 GPT-5 依 然没有发布迹象。OpenAI 今年初发布的视频模型 Sora 也没有大规模开放，到现在都只有少数被他们挑选 的行业人士实际用过。 行业第一的跳票一次次磨损着资本市场对 AI 大模型的耐心。一些中国科技巨头和大模型公司今年年中暂 缓训练基础模型，把更多资源投到应用开发，或把 GPU 算力租给外部 ...