美国政府肆意对贸易伙伴挥舞"关税大棒"，在美国国内遭到普遍质疑。贸易冲突导致美国企业界和业内人士对经济前景的悲观情绪持续蔓延，给美国经济带 来巨大不确定性。 美企CEO信心指数创近50年来最大跌幅 美国经济研究机构"世界大型企业联合会"日前发布数据显示，美国2025年第二季度首席执行官信心指数从此前的60点跌至34点，为2022年第四季度以来的最 低水平，这也是该调查自1976年启动以来的最大环比降幅。外界普遍认为，该指数低于50表明首席执行官对经济前景持悲观态度。 因贸易局势紧张国际航协下调盈利预期 国际航空运输协会理事长威利·沃尔什：现实情况是，任何面临关税的企业都会思考自己能消化多少成本，又有多少可能转嫁给消费者。我理解制造商面临 关税成本的压力，他们显然会尽力做出最优决策，但归根结底，我认为消费者最终将不得不为行业面临的任何成本上涨买单。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 国际航空运输协会6月1日下调了2025年行业盈利预期，称全球航空公司今年的总利润预计将为360亿美元，略低于去年12月预测的366亿美元，并将盈利预期 下降归咎于贸易紧张局势和消费者信心下降。国际航空运输协会理事长威利·沃尔什同时指出，关税将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Richmond Federal Reserve, Barkin, emphasizes that individuals are exercising patience in their investment decisions due to policy uncertainty [1] Group 1 - There is no evidence indicating that declining sentiment is affecting consumer spending [1]

Group 1: Market Trends - Recent bond auctions in Japan, the US, and China have shown significantly reduced demand, indicating a cooling in the primary market[2] - Japan's 20-year bond auction on May 20 had a bid-to-cover ratio of only 2.5, the lowest since 2012, with a tail of 1.14, the highest since 1987[7] - The US 20-year bond auction on May 21 saw a yield of 5.047%, exceeding expectations, with a bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 2.46, the lowest since February[7] Group 2: Interest Rate Movements - Following the weak bond auctions, long-term interest rates surged, with Japanese bond yields rising approximately 15 basis points, and 30-year US Treasury yields surpassing 5%[2] - The domestic 50-year bond auction on May 23 reported a yield of 2.10%, higher than the estimated yield of 2.025%, reflecting a decline in market enthusiasm[7] Group 3: Economic Factors - Uncertainty in policy expectations has increased, with the market pricing in potential rate hikes in Japan and a reduced urgency for rate cuts in the US due to strong employment data and rising inflation[3] - Concerns over fiscal sustainability are growing, particularly in the US, where high deficits and tax cuts have weakened demand for government bonds[4] Group 4: Domestic Market Resilience - Despite the volatility in US and Japanese markets, China's long-term bond market has shown resilience, supported by a relatively loose monetary policy and attractive yield levels around 1.70% for 10-year bonds and 1.90% for 30-year bonds[5] - The trading environment in China remains stable, with market heat indices falling below the 40th percentile, indicating low risk of forced adjustments[5]

Group 1 - Allianz Global Investors warns that the U.S. may lose its global capital attractiveness due to a shift in clean energy policies, with a management scale of approximately $650 billion [1] - The catalyst for this policy shift is a tax bill pushed by House Republicans aiming to repeal several clean energy incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, leading to significant market volatility [1][3] - The S&P 500 index has shown a downward trend, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly surpassed 5.1%, reflecting market concerns over the potential addition of trillions in deficits due to the Republican bill [1] Group 2 - European asset management firms are experiencing a large-scale asset allocation adjustment as clients seek to avoid the U.S. market due to concerns over deteriorating climate policies and regulatory shortcomings [3] - The disparity in policy credibility between the U.S. and Europe is prompting global asset managers to allocate more capital to European projects, as Europe solidifies its emission reduction measures through legislation [3] - If the Senate ultimately passes the repeal of key provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act, it would signify a complete turnaround in U.S. clean technology policy, injecting substantial regulatory risks and undermining the policy certainty that previously attracted global capital [3]

分析指出，欧元区第一季度经济曾因对美出口前置出现短暂提振，但当前整体经济动能不足。服务业长 期作为增长引擎的地位正在动摇，经济活动面临的下行风险上升，尤其在全球贸易紧张局势和政策不确 定性影响下，短期前景依然承压。 制造业则显露企稳迹象。制造业PMI回升至49.4，高于前值49.0及预期的49.3。其中，产出分项指数维 持在51.5，连续第二个月处于扩张区间。尽管海外新订单仅小幅下滑，工厂普遍下调出厂价格以刺激需 求，产出价格指数降至49.0，为五个月最低。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经法兰克福5月22日电（记者马悦然）根据标普全球与汉堡商业银行（HCOB）联合发布的最新 采购经理人指数（PMI）初值，欧元区综合PMI由4月的50.4回落至49.5，跌破荣枯线（50），低于市场 预期。 HCOB首席经济学家德拉鲁比亚表示，制造业复苏呈现广泛化趋势，德国和法国均有改善，若欧洲央行 继续降息，有望进一步提振企业信心。市场普遍预计，欧洲央行将在6月5日的会议上将存款利率进一步 下调25个基点至2.00%。 市场指出，欧元区5月经济活动再度陷入收缩，服务业意外走弱，拖累整体复苏势头。分项数据显示， 服务业PMI降 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about U.S. equities and bonds despite economic slowdown and high policy uncertainty, predicting a weaker dollar in the second half of the year [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley expects U.S. assets to outperform global markets until mid-2026 due to easing tariff threats and reduced recession risks, alongside substantial monetary easing and regulatory relief [1][13]. - The S&P 500 index is projected to reach 6,500 points by Q2 2024, representing a 9% increase from current levels [1][2]. - The report indicates that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to decline to 3.45%, providing approximately 13% total returns for fixed-income investors [2]. Group 2: Currency and Dollar Outlook - The dollar index is anticipated to depreciate by 9% to 91 by mid-2026, with the euro expected to rise to 1.25 against the dollar and the yen strengthening to 130 [3][6]. - Morgan Stanley emphasizes that the era of a strong dollar may be ending due to diminishing growth and yield advantages of the U.S. compared to other G10 economies [6][8]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Timing - The report highlights the importance of timing in investment decisions amid increasing policy uncertainty, suggesting that investors should remain flexible to seize opportunities arising from policy changes [5][15]. - Key policy changes to watch include tariff policies, fiscal policies related to tax cuts, financial regulation impacts from Basel III, and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [15][17]. Group 4: Global Investment Trends - Despite concerns about diminishing demand for U.S. assets, foreign holdings of U.S. dollar-denominated bonds have reached record highs, indicating continued interest in high-quality dollar assets [10][13]. - The report notes that the market size of U.S. dollar assets remains unmatched, with approximately $50 trillion in investable stock market capitalization, significantly larger than Europe’s market [13].

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching a high of $3304.06 per ounce due to reports of Israel preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, which provided safe-haven buying support [1] - The outlook for the global economy has worsened, contributing to the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset since Monday [1] - Despite a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields and the reduction of tariffs between the U.S. and China, ongoing changes in global trade dynamics and persistent policy uncertainty continue to support gold prices [1] - Upcoming votes in the U.S. House of Representatives regarding President Trump's tax reform and changing expectations around Federal Reserve policies are expected to play a crucial role in shaping short-term gold price movements [1] Technical Analysis - Gold has shown strong performance recently, breaking through the $3300 mark and reaching $3304.06, with a need to surpass the key resistance level of $3350 to open further upside potential [2] - A solid support level has formed at $3150, and if geopolitical tensions or economic data change, gold prices could challenge the $3400 mark [2] - The current environment is favorable for gold due to geopolitical risks, a weakening dollar, and technical breakouts [2] - Gold is viewed not only as a safe-haven asset but also as a strategic asset against inflation and policy uncertainty [2] Market Data - As of the latest reports, spot gold is priced around $3295 per ounce, while spot silver is at $33.10 per ounce [3] - The U.S. dollar index is currently experiencing a volatile rebound, with a key resistance level at 100.00 [3] Trend Analysis - The current trend for gold is upward, with strategies suggesting support for long positions and resistance for short positions [7] - The dollar index is showing a downward trend, with attention on the resistance level at 100.00 [7] - Technical indicators suggest that gold prices are consolidating near support levels, with a strong buyer interest around $3200 [3][7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the monitoring framework for assessing the economic impact of tariff shocks in the U.S., focusing on trade, prices, and risk preferences [3][27] - As of mid-May, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports has decreased to around 16%, but it remains at a historical high, with potential GDP decline of 0.65% and inflation increase of 1.7% due to tariffs [4][13][10] - The article emphasizes that the current economic condition is characterized by "stagflation," which is the baseline assumption for the short term [18][19] Group 2 - In the short term, key economic indicators to monitor include imports, inventory levels, and inflation pressures, with a notable increase in imports and stable inventory turnover ratios [4][39] - The article highlights that the inflation effects of tariffs may be delayed but are expected to manifest, impacting consumer demand [4][58] - The U.S. economy is likely to follow a dynamic path from "stagflation" to "slowdown" or "recession," depending on how tariff conflicts evolve [5][105] Group 3 - The article notes that the U.S. has experienced a significant "import rush" in the first quarter, with a stable inventory-to-sales ratio, indicating robust domestic demand despite tariff impacts [4][39] - Tariffs have led to a shift in U.S. import patterns, with increased imports from countries with lower tariff rates, such as Canada and Mexico, while imports from China have decreased significantly [36][30] - The article suggests that certain U.S. export sectors, particularly oil, coal, and basic metals, may face significant challenges due to retaliatory tariffs [47][5] Group 4 - The inflation effects of tariffs are becoming evident, with U.S. retail prices starting to reflect the impact of tariffs on imported goods [58][61] - The article indicates that the inflationary pressures may suppress consumer spending, as observed in the correlation between inflation and consumer behavior [69][61] - The financial market's volatility and increased financial pressure could further suppress investment and consumer sentiment in the U.S. economy [75][88]

关税调整后对美出口订单波动 企业仍面临不确定性 智通财经5月15日电，记者近期走访多家外贸公司和涉及对美出口的上市公司了解到，此次90天的窗口 期对出口订单确有影响，有外贸公司表示正在陆续出掉此前滞留的订单，小商品城表示义乌发向美国的 订单这几日暴涨，并伴随美线订舱价格上涨。不过，订单"激增"的背后更多是出于避险和对政策不确定 性的恐慌，有业内人士表示，本土化布局或拓展新市场才是分摊风险的有效举措。（智通财经记者 陈 抗） ...

IEA月报：政策不确定性仍然很高，影响消费者和企业信心。 ...