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棉花周报:下游消费萎靡,郑棉减仓下跌-20250802
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-02 14:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of US cotton futures continued to decline, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton dropped significantly. The specific agreement of the Sino - US economic and trade talks has not been finalized, and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures is bearish. Fundamentally, downstream consumption is average, the operating rate remains at a historically low level, and the cotton destocking speed slows down. The current market price has fallen below the trend line, and short - term bearish sentiment persists [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Market Review**: As of Friday, the closing price of the December contract of US cotton futures was 66.42 cents per pound, a decrease of 1.81 cents per pound from the previous week, with a decline rate of 2.65%. As of the week of July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, 2 percentage points lower than the previous week; the squaring rate was 80%, 9 percentage points higher than the previous week; the boll - setting rate was 44%, 11 percentage points higher than the previous week. As of the week of July 24, the net increase in export sales of US upland cotton in the 2024/2025 market year was 39,100 bales, a sharp decrease from the previous week but a significant increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The net increase in export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/2026 market year was 71,700 bales [9]. - **Domestic Market Review**: As of Friday, the closing price of the September contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,585 yuan per ton, a decrease of 585 yuan per ton from the previous week, with a decline rate of 4.13%. As of the week of August 1, the spinning mill operating rate was 66.6%, a 1 - percentage - point decrease from last week and a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year; the weaving mill operating rate was 37.5%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from last week and a 1.2 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year; the weekly commercial cotton inventory was 2.16 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons from last week and an increase of 30,000 tons from the same period last year [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: The Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Sweden, but the specific agreement has not been finalized. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures is bearish. Fundamentally, with the continuous strengthening of the basis, downstream consumption is average, the operating rate remains at a historically low level, and the cotton destocking speed slows down. The current market price has fallen below the trend line, and short - term bearish sentiment persists [9]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: On August 1, 2025, the basis was 1,575 yuan per ton, the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 spread was - 200 yuan per ton, the spinning immediate profit was - 887 yuan per ton, the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread was 180 yuan per ton, and the FC index M 1% was 13,551 yuan per ton. The short - term is still bearish [10]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: No trading strategy recommendations were provided [11]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, Zhengzhou cotton basis, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, and various international spreads, to show the historical trends of different spreads [27][29][31]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation The report shows multiple charts related to the domestic cotton market, including domestic cotton production, import volume, US export contract volume to China, cotton yarn import volume, downstream operating rate, cotton sales progress, cotton inventory, and spinning mill raw material and finished - product inventory, to reflect the supply and demand situation of the domestic cotton market [40][42][44]. 3.4 International Market Situation - **CFTC Positions**: The report shows the historical trends of CFTC fund net positions and commercial net positions [58]. - **US Situation**: The report presents multiple charts related to the US cotton market, including planting situation, production situation, production and planting area, export contract progress, export shipment volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, to reflect the supply and demand situation of the US cotton market [60][62][64]. - **Brazil Situation**: The report shows multiple charts related to the Brazilian cotton market, including production and planting area, export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, to reflect the supply and demand situation of the Brazilian cotton market [73][76][78]. - **India Situation**: The report presents multiple charts related to the Indian cotton market, including production and planting area, consumption and import/export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, to reflect the supply and demand situation of the Indian cotton market [81][84][86].
建信期货棉花日报-20250731
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 01:00
Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: July 31, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton decreased in position and price. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,580 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Different regions and varieties of cotton had different sales price bases and quotes. The pure - cotton yarn market's quotes were stable, and the transaction price was approaching the quote. The all - cotton grey fabric market had weak demand, and the fabric price was stable and weak, with only partial improvement in some areas [7]. - Macroscopically, the negotiation on the suspension of tariff extension between China and the US was ongoing. In the international market, as of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, showing a slight decline. The budding, squaring rates of US cotton indicated a slower growth progress, and the outer market was oscillating within a range. In the domestic market, the actual sown area increased year - on - year, with an expectation of a bumper harvest. The downstream industry's demand was still weak, and the 9 - 1 spread continued to converge [8]. Industry News - As of July 24, the deliverable No. 2 cotton futures contracts on ICE were 21,617 bales. According to CFTC data, as of July 22, 2025, the net long - position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was - 18.94%, up 3.97 percentage points week - on - week [9]. Data Overview - The report presented multiple data charts, including those related to China's cotton price index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, various spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee [17][18][23]
棉花:高基差和供应偏紧担忧继续支撑期价
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:59
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report High basis and concerns about tight supply continue to support the cotton futures price. The cotton spot trading has slightly improved, the inventory of cotton spinning enterprises has slightly decreased, but the orders for grey cloth are still weak, and the ICE cotton futures are fluctuating narrowly with a slight decline in the good - quality rate of US cotton [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 14,075 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.67%, and the night - session closed at 14,150 yuan/ton with a 0.53% increase; CY2509 closed at 20,235 yuan/ton yesterday with a 0.66% decline, and the night - session closed at 20,280 yuan/ton with a 0.22% increase; ICE US cotton 12 closed at 68.3 cents/pound with a 0.10% increase. The trading volume of CF2509 was 666,728 lots, an increase of 230,035 lots compared with the previous day, and the position was 866,475 lots, a decrease of 21,810 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 14,576 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the position was 9,411 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 9,226, a decrease of 39, and the effective forecast was 350, unchanged. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 91, a decrease of 5, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 96 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,382 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 0.58% compared with the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 0.59%. The price in Shandong was 15,610 yuan/ton, an increase of 81 yuan or 0.52%; the price in Hebei was 15,589 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan or 0.33%. The 3128B index was 15,609 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan or 0.39%. The international cotton index M was 75.80 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.62%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,780 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.19%, and the arrival price was 22,092 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan or 0.07% [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 45 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The cotton spot trading has slightly improved, the delivery of old cotton is relatively good, and the basis quotes of some cotton enterprises have slightly decreased, but the overall basis is still stable. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 is CF09 + 1300 - 1600, and the Corps' goods are quoted at 1600 - 1750 for inland self - pick - up [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is average, with downstream rigid - demand procurement as the main mode, and traders have a small amount of restocking. The inventory of spinning enterprises has slightly decreased. The orders for grey cloth are still weak, mainly small rigid - demand orders. Traditionally, market sampling orders will appear around the end of July and early August, but textile mills are more cautious this year, so they mainly purchase small orders of cotton yarn [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures fluctuated narrowly yesterday, and the market still lacks fundamental guidance. The US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop growth report showed that the good - quality rate of US cotton slightly decreased. As of the week of July 27, the good - quality rate of US cotton was 55%, compared with 57% in the previous week and 49% in the same period last year [2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].
建信期货棉花日报-20250729
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:24
Report Overview - Reported Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Research Analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Core Views - Zhengzhou cotton reduced positions and declined. The spot cotton price index for Grade 328 was 15,609 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The market price of pure cotton yarn increased, but the downstream demand was difficult to boost. Spinning mills were still suffering significant losses, and the operating rate continued to decline due to high temperatures in the inland areas. The market for pure cotton grey cloth was sluggish, with mostly small and urgent orders [7]. - Macroscopically, the US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement, and the market was concerned about the China-US talks in Stockholm. Internationally, the drought coverage remained low, and the net long position of CFTC funds increased slightly week-on-week. The external market had limited driving force and maintained a range-bound operation. Domestically, the actual sown area increased year-on-year, and the overall expectation of a bumper harvest remained. The downstream spinning mills had a cold demand for cotton raw materials, but the overall rigid demand still existed. The operating rate of inland spinning mills had dropped to a relatively low level and was expected to continue to decline. In the short term, the main contract reduced positions and shifted months, with a shock adjustment, and the 9-1 spread continued to converge [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton reduced positions and declined. The latest cotton price index for Grade 328 was 15,609 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis of 2024/25 northern Xinjiang machine-picked cotton (4129/29B/impurity within 3.5) was mostly in the range of CF09 + 1350 - 1500. Some 2023/24 Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps machine-picked cotton (3129/29B) was quoted at 15,600 - 15,700 yuan/ton or above. The basis of machine-picked cotton in Kashgar, southern Xinjiang (Grade 31, double 29) was mostly quoted in the range of CF09 + 1050 - 1250, with a small amount lower than this price. The sales basis of the same quality machine-picked cotton in southern Xinjiang in the 2023/24 season was mainly in the range of CF09 + 900 - 1100, all for self-pickup in Xinjiang [7]. - The market price of pure cotton yarn increased, but the downstream demand was difficult to boost. Spinning mills were still suffering significant losses, and the operating rate continued to decline due to high temperatures in the inland areas. The market for pure cotton grey cloth was sluggish, with mostly small and urgent orders [7]. - Macroscopically, the US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement, and the market was concerned about the China-US talks in Stockholm. Internationally, the drought coverage remained low, and the net long position of CFTC funds increased slightly week-on-week. The external market had limited driving force and maintained a range-bound operation. Domestically, the actual sown area increased year-on-year, and the overall expectation of a bumper harvest remained. The downstream spinning mills had a cold demand for cotton raw materials, but the overall rigid demand still existed. The operating rate of inland spinning mills had dropped to a relatively low level and was expected to continue to decline. In the short term, the main contract reduced positions and shifted months, with a shock adjustment, and the 9-1 spread continued to converge [8] 2. Industry News - As of July 24, the number of deliverable No. 2 cotton futures contracts on ICE was 21,617 bales, compared with 21,635 bales on the previous trading day. According to CFTC data, as of July 22, 2025, the net long position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was -18.94% (up 3.97 percentage points week-on-week, and up 3.97 percentage points last week) [9]. - According to the statistics of the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA), as of July 15, 2025, the cumulative new cotton listing volume in Pakistan for the 2025/26 season reached 46,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22%. Among them, textile mills purchased 39,000 tons, and the unsold new cotton was 2,000 tons [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report presented various data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1-5 spread, CF5-9 spread, CF9-1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume, as well as exchange rate data such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the US dollar against the Indian rupee [17][18][23]
棉花:近强远弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 01:53
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints The report presents a "near - strong, far - weak" view on cotton. It shows the current situation of the cotton market from multiple aspects including fundamentals, macro and industry news, and the situation of US cotton [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of CF2509 was 14,250 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.86%, and the night - session closing price was 14320 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.49% - 0.51%. The closing price of CY2509 was 20,430 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.24%, and the night - session closing price was 20535 yuan/ton. The price of ICE US cotton 12 was 68.84 cents/pound with a 0.41% increase. The trading volume of CF2509 was 673,094 lots, an increase of 286,459 lots compared with the previous day, and the position was 919,015 lots, an increase of 35,587 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 10,517 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the position was 20,012 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 9,585, a decrease of 58, and the effective forecast was 223 with no change. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 97, a decrease of 1, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 98 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,580 yuan/ton, an increase of 260 yuan or 1.70% compared with the previous day. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 260 yuan or 1.73%. The price in Shandong was 15,302 yuan/ton, an increase of 76 yuan or 0.50%, and in Hebei was 15,393 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan or 0.52%. The 3128B index was 15,354 yuan/ton, an increase of 82 yuan or 0.54%. The international cotton index M was 76.14 cents/pound with no change. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan or 0.88%, and the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 22,121 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan or 0.00% [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was 290 yuan/ton, an increase of 165 yuan compared with the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,330 yuan/ton with no change [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall trading of domestic cotton spots was sluggish, and some high - price quotes began to lower the basis. Different grades of cotton in Xinjiang had different basis quotes for self - pick - up in the region [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The pure - cotton yarn market changed little, but there were potential restocking and speculative demands from downstream due to continuous price increases. The price of all - cotton grey cloth increased, with some small orders increasing and urgent delivery times, but the overall market was still sluggish with limited improvement. Currently, fabric mills still faced high inventory pressure for regular varieties, and actual orders were negotiated based on quantity [2]. - **US Cotton Situation**: The ICE cotton futures rose slightly yesterday, supported by the expectation of a possible trade agreement between the US and other countries. However, the strengthening of the US dollar and the average weekly export sales data of US cotton limited the increase. As of the week ending July 10, the export shipment of US cotton in the 24/25 season was 156,400 bales, a 35% decrease from the previous week and a 29% decrease from the four - week average. The net sales of US cotton in the 25/26 season increased by 73,000 bales [3]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, with the value ranging from - 2 to 2, representing different levels of bullish or bearish views, where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [5].
棉花:维持震荡偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 01:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton is to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish trend [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the fundamentals of cotton, including futures prices, trading volumes, positions, warehouse receipts, spot prices, and price spreads, as well as macro and industry news, and concludes that the cotton market will maintain a volatile and slightly bullish trend [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,850 yuan/ton yesterday with a -0.18% daily increase, and 13,945 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.69% increase; CY2509 closed at 20,050 yuan/ton yesterday with a -0.35% daily increase, and 20,140 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.45% increase; ICE cotton futures for December closed at 68.57 cents/pound with a 0.68% increase. The trading volume of CF2509 was 297,507 lots, an increase of 95,684 lots compared to the previous day, and the position was 845,684 lots, a decrease of 9,262 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 7,077 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots compared to the previous day, and the position was 21,168 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 9,716, a decrease of 91 compared to the previous day, and the effective forecast was 223, an increase of 7. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 98, unchanged from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 98 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine-picked cotton was 15,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan compared to the previous day; the price of Nanjiang 3128 machine-picked cotton was 14,870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan compared to the previous day; the price in Shandong was 15,264 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan compared to the previous day; the price in Hebei was 15,362 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan compared to the previous day; the 3128B index was 15,302 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan compared to the previous day; the international cotton index M was 75.70 cents/pound, an increase of 1 cent compared to the previous day; the price of pure cotton combed yarn 32 was 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the arrival price of pure cotton combed yarn 32 was 22,109 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan compared to the previous day [1] - **Price Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 price spread was 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan compared to the previous day; the price spread between Beijiang 3128 machine-picked cotton and CF509 was 1,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot Situation**: According to TTEB information, the spot trading of cotton has not improved, and textile enterprises mainly purchase on a need - to - basis, with the overall basis remaining stable. Different regions and varieties have different sales basis quotes [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation**: The trading in the pure cotton yarn market has not improved, and the overall atmosphere is dull. Textile enterprises continue to reduce production by lowering the operating rate, and the inventory pressure is gradually increasing. The trading of all - cotton grey cloth is dull, the increase in the grey cloth transaction price is less than that of cotton, and the losses continue. Grey cloth orders are mainly small and scattered, the sales of finished product inventory are scarce, and some weaving factories said that sales improved only after price cuts, and downstream procurement is cautious [2] - **US Cotton Situation**: ICE cotton futures rose slightly for the second consecutive day. The weather forecast shows that the weather in the US cotton - producing areas will be dry in the next two weeks, which triggered some short - covering [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]
棉系周报:棉花销售进度较快,郑棉走势震荡偏强-20250715
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 14:39
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current cotton market is influenced by both domestic and international factors. Internationally, macro - factors have a positive impact on US cotton, with its growth and sales showing specific trends. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly upward trend in the short - term. The supply and demand situation at home will also affect the price trend, and macro - factors such as tariff extensions may bring uncertainties [8][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: Macro - factors have a certain positive impact on US cotton, and its trend is expected to be slightly upward with oscillations. The growth progress of US cotton in planting, budding, and boll - setting is slightly slower year - on - year, but the excellent rate in the main production areas has recovered above the annual average, including in Texas. As of the week ending June 26, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly signing decreased by 13% week - on - week and 66% compared to the average of the previous four weeks, while 2025/26 annual signing was 2.42 tons. The weekly shipment of 2024/25 US upland cotton increased by 39% week - on - week and 9% compared to the average of the previous four weeks [8]. - **CFTC Position**: As of June 27, the number of un - priced contracts by sellers on the ON - CALL 2512 contract decreased by 252 to 25402, equivalent to a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to last week. The total number of un - priced contracts by sellers in the 25/26 annual increased by 599 to 43715, equivalent to 990,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons compared to last week. The total number of un - priced contracts by sellers on ICE decreased to 48293, equivalent to 1.1 million tons, a decrease of 874 compared to last week, equivalent to a decrease of 20,000 tons [8]. - **Brazil**: As of the week ending June 28, the total cotton harvesting progress in Brazil (98%) was 5%, a 1 - percentage - point increase week - on - week and 4.5% slower than the same period last year. The slowdown in harvesting is mainly due to the backward progress in the main production areas, which may be related to the slow growth of crops [8]. - **Global Cotton Situation**: According to the latest USDA data in June, the global cotton production in 25/26 decreased by 178,000 tons to 25.47 million tons, with China's production increasing by 218,000 tons, India's decreasing by 217,000 tons, and the US's decreasing by 109,000 tons to 3.048 million tons. Total consumption decreased by 70,000 tons to 25.638 million tons, with India's consumption decreasing by 109,000 tons to 555,200 tons. The global ending inventory in June decreased by 344,000 tons to 16.721 million tons, with the US's inventory decreasing by 196,000 tons [8]. 3.2 Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Market Trend**: This week, Zhengzhou cotton showed an oscillating and slightly upward trend, and it is expected to maintain this trend in the short - term [15]. - **Supply Side**: As of mid - June, the national commercial cotton inventory in China was 3.1269 million tons, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. As of June 27, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.8799 million tons, a decrease of 111,600 tons (3.73%) compared to last week. As of July 3, the cumulative sales volume of 2024 cotton was 6.301 million tons, 958,400 tons higher than the five - year average [15]. - **Demand Side**: Currently, it is the off - season for market consumption. In mid - June, the yarn inventory days in China were 23.86, at a medium level in the same period over the years, and the grey cloth inventory was 35.46, also at a relatively low - medium level in the same period over the years. As of July 3, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 71.1%, a 0.14% decrease compared to last week, with little overall change. There was no obvious change in the downstream orders of spinning mills [15]. 3.3 Option Strategy - **Volatility Judgment**: The 30 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton yesterday was 5.6505. - **Option Strategy Suggestion**: The position PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton on July 3 was 0.9489, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.5368, with a decrease in both call and put trading volumes. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. 3.4 Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: When the boost from new cotton purchases to the market is limited, if the demand side does not show obvious improvement, the price may weaken. If the demand side performs well, it will have a positive impact on the market. Tariff extensions in July and August may bring uncertainties, and if the tariff issue eases, commodity prices may strengthen [24]. - **Specific Strategies**: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will be slightly upward with oscillations, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show an oscillating and slightly upward trend. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, it is recommended to sell put options [24]. 3.5 Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal and External Price Difference**: The report presents the internal and external cotton price difference under 1% tariff, as well as the price trends of domestic cotton and imported cotton under 1% tariff [26]. - **Inventory Situation**: It shows the historical data of cotton commercial inventory, industrial inventory, and reserve inventory [30]. - **Basis Situation**: It includes the basis situations of cotton in different months and the basis trend of US seven - major market upland cotton [32].
瑞达期货棉花(纱)产业日报-20250715
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 09:34
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The USDA's July cotton supply and demand report is bearish, and good weather and improved crop ratings are suppressing the upside potential of US cotton in the short term. There are risks from macro factors such as US tariffs on imports from Japan, South Korea and potential new 10% tariffs on BRICS countries. In China, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders, a slow decline in overall operating rates, and more cautious raw material procurement. Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and high - temperature weather in some areas of Xinjiang increases the risk of heat damage to cotton, supporting a slightly stronger price trend. However, the consumption off - season in the downstream is dragging on the price rhythm, so the overall trend is oscillating slightly stronger. Weather and macro factors should be continuously monitored [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,850 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price is 20,050 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 14,759 lots, up 2,947 lots; for cotton yarn futures, it is 109 lots, up 4 lots. The main contract positions of cotton are 546,688 lots, down 11,044 lots; for cotton yarn, it is 21,168 lots, down 1,042 lots. The cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 9,716 sheets, down 91 sheets; for cotton yarn, it is 98 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,302 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged. The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,651 yuan/ton; the landed price of the Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 22,109 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan. The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,384 yuan/ton; the landed price of the Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 23,902 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 616 tons, up 54 tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,218 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 85 tons, up 2.4 tons. The monthly import volume of cotton is 4 tons, down 2 tons; for cotton yarn, it is 100,000 tons, down 20,000 tons. The profit from imported cotton is 971 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan. The commercial inventory of cotton nationwide is 345.87 tons, down 69.39 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 23.86 days, up 1.52 days; the坯布 inventory days are 35.46 days, up 2.57 days. The monthly cloth output is 2.67 billion meters, down 0.05 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 195.1 tons, down 3.6 tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,357,773.7 million US dollars, up 197,117.9 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,263,177.3 million US dollars, up 5,210.9 million US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 15.96%, up 7.71%; for put options, it is 16.02%, up 7.78%. The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.01%, up 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.35%, down 0.23% [2] Industry News - As of the week of July 13, 2025, the US cotton boll - setting rate is 23%, up from 14% the previous week, compared with 26% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 22%. The budding rate is 61%, up from 48% the previous week, compared with 62% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 62%. The good - to - excellent rate is 54%, up from 52% the previous week, compared with 45% in the same period last year [2]
棉花:缺乏明显驱动,期价震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 01:51
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The cotton market lacks obvious driving factors, and the futures price is oscillating [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Data**: The closing price of CF2509 was 13,875 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.07%, and the night - session closing price was 13,805 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.50%. The closing price of CY2509 was 20,120 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.12%, and the night - session closing price was 20,020 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.50%. The price of ICE Cotton No.12 was 68.11 cents/pound with a daily increase of 1.02% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2509 was 201,823 lots, a decrease of 64,689 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 854,946 lots, a decrease of 9,135 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 5,384 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 22,210 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 9,807, a decrease of 43, and the valid forecast was 216, a decrease of 18. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 98, an increase of 7, and the valid forecast was 0, an increase of 84 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared with the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The price in Shandong was 15,244 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan; the price in Hebei was 15,341 yuan/ton, an increase of 71 yuan. The 3128B index was 15,295 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan. The international cotton index M was 74.99 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.39%. The price of pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 20,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan, and the arrival price was 22,095 yuan/ton, an increase of 81 yuan [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The CF9 - 1 spread was 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan compared with the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. **Macro and Industry News** - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading has changed little. Spinning mills mainly make rigid - demand purchases, and the overall basis is stable. Different regions and qualities of cotton have different basis quotes [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure cotton yarn market remains dull, and the turnover has changed little. Spinning mills continue to reduce their production capacity. The all - cotton grey fabric market remains weak, and the actual transaction price remains the same. Weaving mills maintain on - demand and low - price purchases [2]. - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures rose slightly yesterday, mainly due to bargain - hunting and technical support. As of July 13, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton rose to 54%, compared with 52% the previous week and 45% in the same period last year [3]. **Trend Intensity** The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].
建信期货棉花日报-20250703
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 01:38
行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 7 月 3 日 研究员:余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 研究员:林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3055047 研究员:王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0230741 研究员:洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3076808 研究员:刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | 表1:行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 郑棉震荡调整。现货方面,最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 15163 元/吨,较上一 交易日跌 49 元/吨。2024/25 北疆机采 4129 ...