1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, with the upcoming seed - cotton purchase, the expected purchase price is 6.2 - 6.5 yuan/kg. The Zhengzhou cotton futures face significant hedging pressure above 14,000 yuan/ton, while there is insufficient motivation for hedging below 13,000 yuan/ton. The "Golden September and Silver October" in consumption is lackluster, and the downstream profits are poor, so the cotton price is expected to turn weak. [53] - Internationally, the cotton price has risen and then fallen. The impact of the US dollar interest - rate cut is not positive. However, the expected 3 interest - rate cuts in the US in 2025 by mainstream institutions may boost the cotton market later. The USDA's monthly supply - demand report has little impact on the market. The US cotton export data has improved, and the consumption provides some support, so the cotton price is expected to fluctuate. [53] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis - **Futures Price Trends**: Zhengzhou cotton futures weakened this week with a weekly decline of 1.01%, while ICE cotton futures fluctuated slightly with a weekly increase of 0.03% [11] - **Spot Prices**: This week, the cotton price index rose. The 3128 index increased by 62 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index increased by 70 yuan/ton [16] - **Cotton Imports**: In August, 70,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons [21] - **Cotton Inventory**: At the end of August, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 338,500 tons compared with the first half of August [25] - **Downstream Inventory**: In August, the yarn inventory was 26.58 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.35 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 33.87 days, a year - on - year increase of 4.11 days [30] - **Yarn Prices**: This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S and C32S increased by 20 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the price of JC40S increased by 60 yuan/ton [35] - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts**: This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 567, with 4438 warehouse receipts and 12 valid forecasts, totaling 4450 [41] - **US Cotton Exports**: As of September 11, the net sales of US upland cotton for the current year increased by 186,100 bales, and the net sales for the next year were 19,000 bales [44] - **US Weather**: The total area in drought (D1 - D4) in the US is 34.2%, with different drought levels covering different percentages of the country [50] 3.2后市展望 - Domestic cotton is expected to turn weak, while international cotton is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, with attention to be paid to macro - level changes [53]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in cotton futures prices on the ICE, with a current price of 66.83 cents per pound, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.13% [1] - On September 18, the opening price for U.S. cotton was 67.21 cents per pound, with a closing price of 66.91 cents per pound, marking a decline of 0.52% [2] - The latest data from the CFTC indicates an increase in on-call unpriced sell orders to 50,420 contracts and a rise in unpriced buy orders to 114,730 contracts as of September 12 [2] Group 2 - The China Cotton Association projects a 1.8% year-on-year increase in national cotton planting area to 44.823 million acres for 2025, with favorable weather conditions contributing to improved crop yields [2] - The total cotton production in China is expected to reach 7.216 million tons, an 8.3% increase year-on-year, with an upward adjustment of 321,000 tons from the previous estimate, marking the highest output since 2013 [2] - On September 18, the average price for 3128 grade cotton delivered nationwide was 15,150 yuan per ton, a decrease of 110 yuan per ton, while the price for 32s pure cotton yarn remained stable at 21,509 yuan per ton [2]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年9月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC9月报：25/26年度产量2550万吨，消费2550万吨。USDA9月报：25/26年度产 量2562.2万吨，消费2587.2万吨，期末库存1592.5万吨。海关：8月纺织品服装出口265.4亿 美元，同比下降5%。7月份我国棉花进口5万吨，同比减少73.2%；棉纱进口11万吨，同比增加 15.38%。农村部9月25/26年度：产量636万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库存822万 吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价15300，基差1405（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the cotton industry is "oscillation", and the trading strategy suggests "wait - and - see" for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The old crop inventory shortage has been priced in, and the new crop's weak reality of a bumper harvest is being priced. Spinning capacity is in excess, and the high operating rate keeps the industrial demand for cotton firm. The national commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, while the national industrial inventory remains at a high level. The basis of Zhengzhou cotton has been oscillating this week, and the 1 - 5 month spread of Zhengzhou cotton has been stable. Xinjiang spinning has a slight loss, and inland spinning has a serious loss. The yarn - cotton price spread is running at a low level. The current absolute price of cotton is at a neutral - to - low level in the past four years. Domestically, the increasing domestic demand policies are beneficial for the long - term demand of domestic cotton, while internationally, the Sino - US trade negotiation is in a short - term deadlock, and the extension of the tariff exemption period has a negative impact on sentiment. In the short term, the demand side performs averagely, and the supply side remains loose, so the market may oscillate within a range [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bearish. The old crop inventory shortage has been priced, and the new crop's weak reality of a bumper harvest is being priced [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. Excess spinning capacity and a high operating rate keep the industrial demand for cotton firm [3] - **Inventory**: Neutral. The national commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, and the national industrial inventory remains at a high level [3] - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. This week, the basis of Zhengzhou cotton oscillated, with the Xinjiang double - 28 spot basis at 1000 - 1200, and the 1 - 5 month spread of Zhengzhou cotton was stable [3] - **Profit**: Bearish. Xinjiang spinning has a slight loss, inland spinning has a serious loss, and the yarn - cotton price spread is running at a low level [3] - **Valuation**: Bullish. The current absolute price is at a neutral - to - low level in the past four years [3] - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. Domestically, increasing domestic demand policies are beneficial for the long - term demand of domestic cotton, while internationally, the Sino - US trade negotiation is in a short - term deadlock, and the extension of the tariff exemption period has a negative impact on sentiment [3] - **Investment View**: Oscillation. In the short term, the demand side performs averagely, and the supply side remains loose, so the market may oscillate within a range [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait - and - see; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see [3] 3.2 Cotton Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Upstream Planting - The cotton planting area is expected to increase. The national cotton planting area in the first survey of 2025 is 4159.9 million mu, with a year - on - year increase of 1.88%, and the Xinjiang cotton planting area is 3678.8 million mu, with a year - on - year increase of 3.18% [8][9] - The cotton yield per mu in 2025 is estimated to be 149.9 kg nationwide and 158.5 kg in Xinjiang [10] 3.2.2 Mid - stream Inventory - The accumulation of finished product inventory has slowed down. Data on the raw material and finished product inventories of weaving and spinning mills are presented in the form of time - series charts [18][19][21] 3.2.3 Mid - stream Factory Load - The operating rate is declining. The operating rates of pure - cotton yarn mills and all - cotton grey fabric mills are presented in the form of time - series charts [25][26][27] 3.2.4 Mid - stream Spinning Mill Profit - Spinning mills are in the red. The immediate spinning profit and the yarn - cotton spot price spread are presented in the form of time - series charts [29][30][32] 3.2.5 Downstream Inventory - The downstream inventory is at a seasonal high. The inventories and finished product inventories of textile and clothing enterprises above the designated size are presented in the form of time - series charts [34][35][36] 3.2.6 Import and Export - Domestic cotton and cotton yarn import data are presented in the form of time - series charts. US cotton exports to different countries show different trends: exports to China and Pakistan are at a low level, exports to Vietnam have increased significantly year - on - year, and relevant data are presented in the form of time - series charts [39][41][50] 3.3 Cotton Capital - related Data 3.3.1 Zhengzhou Cotton Basis - The basis is oscillating at a high level. The basis of Zhengzhou cotton 09 and 01 contracts is presented in the form of time - series charts [63][64][65] 3.3.2 Zhengzhou Cotton Spread - The 09 - 01 and 01 - 05 spreads of Zhengzhou cotton are presented in the form of time - series charts [67] 3.3.3 Zhengzhou Cotton Position - The position of the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract is rapidly declining. The position data of the 09 and 01 contracts are presented in the form of time - series charts [69][70][72] 3.3.4 Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipt - The virtual - to - real ratio of the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract is rapidly declining. The total number of warehouse receipts and forecasts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the 09 contract are presented in the form of time - series charts [74][75] 3.3.5 Management Fund's Net Long Position in US Cotton - The net long position, long - position proportion of management funds in US cotton futures and options are presented in the form of time - series charts [81][83][84] 3.3.6 US Cotton Month Spread - The US cotton 12 - 03 month spread shows a "Deep Contango" pattern, and relevant data are presented in the form of time - series charts [86][87]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is currently in a neutral state, with the 2025/26 production and consumption estimated by ICAC at 25.5 million tons each, and by USDA at 25.392 million tons and 25.688 million tons respectively. The expected end - of - period inventory by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 8.23 million tons. The market shows mixed signals, with the basis being bullish, inventory bearish, and the market trend uncertain [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include reduced Sino - US tariffs and lower commercial inventory year - on - year, along with increased expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season. Bearish factors are the postponed trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. - As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market has significant differences. With new cotton about to be listed, the hedging pressure is increasing. The main 01 contract on the futures market continues to fluctuate around 14,000 [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different estimates for the 2025/26 cotton production, consumption, and inventory. For example, ICAC estimates production and consumption at 25.5 million tons each; USDA estimates production at 25.392 million tons, consumption at 25.688 million tons, and end - of - period inventory at 16.093 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a 0.1% year - on - year decrease. China's cotton imports in July were 50,000 tons, a 73.2% year - on - year decrease, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a 15.38% year - on - year increase. The Ministry of Agriculture estimates 2025/26 production at 6.25 million tons, imports at 1.4 million tons, consumption at 7.4 million tons, and end - of - period inventory at 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,446 yuan, with a basis of 1,446 yuan for the 01 contract, indicating a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's estimated end - of - period inventory for the 2025/26 period in August is 8.23 million tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, but the overall position is still long, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Expectations**: As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season arrives, the market has significant differences. With new cotton about to be listed, the hedging pressure is increasing, and the main 01 contract continues to fluctuate around 14,000 [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In August, the total global cotton production was 25.392 million tons, a 2% year - on - year decrease; consumption was 25.688 million tons, a 0.4% year - on - year increase; and end - of - period inventory was 16.093 million tons, a 2.4% year - on - year decrease [10][11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 period, global production is estimated at 25.9 million tons, a 1.6% year - on - year increase; consumption is 25.6 million tons, basically unchanged; end - of - period inventory is 17.1 million tons, a 1.6% year - on - year increase; and global trade volume is 9.7 million tons, a 3.9% year - on - year increase. The price forecast for the Cotlook A index is between 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [12]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Data for China**: For the 2025/26 period, the estimated production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and end - of - period inventory is 8.23 million tons. The domestic average price of 3128B cotton is expected to be between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [14]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trading of domestic cotton spot is sluggish, with a shortage of high - quality spot inventory. Spinning mills only make purchases based on rigid demand, and most sales basis of cotton spot remain stable [2]. - The trading in the domestic pure - cotton yarn market is average. Downstream customers report insufficient new orders and mainly make rigid - demand purchases. Prices are generally stable, with most spinning mills holding firm on prices and some offering promotional discounts. The market is highly concerned about subsequent orders in September and the marginal changes in the downstream [2]. - The ICE cotton futures declined yesterday due to concerns about the listing pressure of new US cotton crops and the strengthening of the US dollar [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2601 closed at 14,045 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.14%, and its night - session closing price was the same as the previous day. The trading volume was 338,147 lots, a decrease of 347,135 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 710,163 lots, a decrease of 5,361 lots [1]. - CY2511 closed at 19,995 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decrease of 0.12%, and its night - session closing price was 20,020 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.13%. The trading volume was 9,362 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 24,498 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - ICE US cotton 12 closed at 66.05 cents/pound yesterday with a decrease of 0.72% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 6,131, a decrease of 189 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 0 [1]. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 60, an increase of 3 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 6, an increase of 54 from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,297 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.13%. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,993 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.13% [1]. - The price in Shandong was 15,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.45%. The price in Hebei was 15,412 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.28% [1]. - The 3128B index was 15,412 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.43%. The international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 74.16 cents/pound, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,780 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,766 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.15% [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The CF1 - 5 spread was 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Based on TTEB information, the overall trading of cotton spot is sluggish. High - quality spot inventory is scarce, and spinning mills only make rigid - demand purchases. Most sales basis of cotton spot remain stable. For example, the mainstream lower sales basis of 2024/25 Nanjiang Kashi machine - picked 3129/29B with impurities within 3.5 is in the range of CF01 + 1100 - 1200, and more sales basis are above CF01 + 1200, for inland self - pick - up. A small amount of 2024/25 Beijiang local machine - picked 4129/29 - 30B with impurities within 3 was traded at around CF01 + 1400 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: According to TTEB information, the trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is average. Downstream customers report insufficient new orders and mainly make rigid - demand purchases. Prices are generally stable, with most spinning mills holding firm on prices and some offering promotional discounts. The market is highly concerned about subsequent orders in September and the marginal changes in the downstream [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures declined yesterday due to concerns about the listing pressure of new US cotton crops and the strengthening of the US dollar [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, with the value range of trend intensity being an integer within the [- 2,2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: September 3, 2025 [2] - Report industry: Cotton [1] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market review: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted. The latest cotton price index for grade 328 was 15,479 yuan/ton, up 151 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream sales basis quotes for machine-picked cotton in northern Xinjiang and Kashgar, southern Xinjiang were in different ranges. The spot trading of cotton improved slightly after the sharp decline in the futures market, and the inventory of many cotton merchants was low. The expected stable and increasing output of new cotton brought some long-term pressure. There were sporadic hand-picked seed cotton purchases at the end of August and early September, with purchase prices ranging from 7.25 to 7.35 yuan/kg. The downstream demand improved marginally since August, and the finished product inventory of spinning mills and weaving factories decreased slightly [7][8] - Operation suggestions: The short-term sentiment was weak, and the market was mainly in a state of volatile adjustment [8] Group 3: Industry News - In Hutubi County, 869,000 mu of cotton is gradually boll-opening. The county's 24 cotton purchase and processing enterprises have nearly completed the overhaul of production equipment, and the purchase funds and personnel are ready. It is expected to start purchasing new cotton around September 20, and relevant departments will strengthen supervision during the purchase period [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1-5 spread, CF5-9 spread, CF9-1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume [16][17][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the cotton industry is "oscillation", suggesting that the short - term demand is average and the supply is loose, with the market likely to fluctuate within a range [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the cotton market from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that the old - crop inventory shortage has been priced in, and the new - crop abundant harvest reality is being priced. The demand is neutral due to over - capacity in spinning and high operating rates. The inventory shows different trends in commercial and industrial aspects. The profit situation of spinning is poor, while the valuation is relatively low. Macro - policies have both positive and negative impacts. Overall, the market is expected to oscillate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish as the old - crop inventory shortage has been priced, and the new - crop abundant harvest weak reality is being priced [3]. - **Demand**: Neutral. Excess spinning capacity and high operating rates lead to strong industrial demand for cotton [3]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The national commercial inventory is depleting rapidly, while the national industrial inventory remains at a high level [3]. - **Base/Spread**: Neutral. This week, the Zhengzhou cotton basis maintained an oscillation, with the Xinjiang double 28 spot basis at 1000 - 1200, and the Zhengzhou cotton September - January spread continued to strengthen [3]. - **Profit**: Bearish. Xinjiang spinning has a slight loss, and inland spinning has a serious loss. The yarn - cotton spread is running at a low level [3]. - **Valuation**: Bullish. The current absolute price is at a relatively low level in the past four years [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. Domestically, the increasing domestic demand policies are beneficial for the long - term demand of domestic cotton, which is bullish for the far - month contracts. Internationally, the Sino - US trade negotiation is in a short - term deadlock, and the tariff exemption period is extended again, which is bearish in terms of sentiment [3]. - **Investment View**: Oscillation. The short - term demand is average, and the supply is in a loose pattern, so the market may fluctuate within a range [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For both unilateral and arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. Key risks to watch include domestic macro - policies, Sino - US trade policies, and downstream consumption [3]. PART TWO: Cotton Fundamental Data Upstream Planting - The cotton planting area is expected to increase. The first - time survey in 2025 shows that the national cotton planting area is 4159.9 million mu, and that in Xinjiang is 3678.8 million mu, with year - on - year increases of 1.88% and 3.18% respectively [8][9]. - The cotton yield per mu in 2025 is estimated to be 149.9 kg nationally and 158.5 kg in Xinjiang [10]. Mid - stream - **Inventory**: The finished - product inventory accumulation in mid - stream factories has slowed down. The inventory data of weaving mills and spinning mills are presented in the form of graphs [18]. - **Factory Load**: The operating rates of pure - cotton yarn mills and all - cotton grey fabric mills are declining [25]. - **Spinning Mill Profit**: Spinning mills are in a loss situation, as shown by the negative spinning immediate profit and low yarn - cotton spot spread [29]. Downstream - The downstream inventory is at a seasonal high, as reflected by the inventory data of textile and clothing enterprises above the designated size [34]. International Market - **US Cotton Exports**: The signing and shipment of US cotton exports are at the lowest level in the same period of history. Exports to different countries show different trends: exports to Pakistan are decreasing year - on - year and at a low level; exports to Vietnam have increased significantly year - on - year in terms of signing and shipment [41][50][56]. PART THREE: Cotton Capital - related Data - **Zhengzhou Cotton Basis**: It is oscillating at a high level. The basis of Zhengzhou cotton contracts 09 and 01 shows relevant trends [63]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Spread**: The September - January spread and January - May spread of Zhengzhou cotton are presented in the form of graphs [67]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Position**: The position of the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract is rapidly declining [69]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipt**: The virtual - to - real ratio of the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract is rapidly declining [74]. - **US Cotton Fund Position**: Data on the net long positions of management funds in US cotton futures and options, as well as the long - position ratios, are presented [82][84]. - **US Cotton Month Spread**: It shows a "Deep Contango" pattern [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the domestic market, short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend. In the international market, short - term US cotton may maintain a volatile trend. The report suggests short - term trading [48][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded this week with a weekly increase of 1.5%. ICE cotton futures declined and then rebounded, with a weekly decrease of 1.01% [10] 3.1.2 Spot Prices - This week, the cotton price index rose. The 3128 index increased by 75 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index increased by 85 yuan/ton [14] 3.1.3 Cotton Import Situation - In July, 50,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons [19] 3.1.4 Cotton Inventory Situation - In the first half of August, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.8202 million tons, a decrease of 369,600 tons compared with the second half of July [23] 3.1.5 Downstream Inventory Situation - In July, the yarn inventory was 27.67 days, a year - on - year decrease of 0.65 days. The grey cloth inventory was 36.14 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.82 days [27] 3.1.6 Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S yarn increased by 20 yuan/ton compared with last week, the price of C32S yarn increased by 60 yuan/ton, and the price of JC40S yarn increased by 40 yuan/ton [32] 3.1.7 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 539. The number of warehouse receipts was 6,720, and the valid forecasts were 2, with a total of 6,722 [38] 3.1.8 US Cotton Export Situation - As of August 21, the net sales of US upland cotton exports in the current year increased by 179,300 bales, and the net sales of exports in the next year were 0 bales [40] 3.1.9 US Weather Situation - In the US, the total area in drought (D1 - D4) is 27.7%, with D0 - Abnormally Dry at 17.3%, D1 - Moderate Drought at 10.9%, D2 - Severe Drought at 10.8%, D3 - Extreme Drought at 5.5%, and D4 - Exceptional Drought at 0.5% [47] 3.2后市展望 3.2.1 Domestic Market - Xinjiang cotton has basically entered the yield - determining stage. The weather in the main producing areas is ideal, and cotton is growing well. The market expects a slight increase in cotton yield per mu, and the total cotton output in Xinjiang in the 2025/26 season may reach 7 million tons. The expected purchase price of seed cotton is 6 - 6.5 yuan/kg. Textile orders in the peak season are starting, and the operating rate has increased slightly. The 2025 cotton import sliding - duty processing trade quota has little impact on the market. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend [48] 3.2.2 International Market - US cotton declined and then rebounded. The weak US dollar due to the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has boosted the price of US cotton. There is some drought in the southern US, but the impact is limited. The good export situation and high excellent - rate of US cotton suggest that short - term US cotton may maintain a volatile trend [48]

Report Overview - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: August 27, 2025 [2] Group 1: Report Core View - Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,334 yuan/ton, up 99 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream sales basis quotes for 2024/25 northern Xinjiang local machine - picked cotton and southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked cotton were given. The cotton yarn market had acceptable transactions, and the cotton fabric market was stable with limited order recovery [7]. - In the overseas market, the weekly export sales data of US cotton weakened, the drought coverage in major cotton - growing areas increased, the good - to - excellent rate decreased slightly week - on - week, and the short - term external market was likely to fluctuate within a range. In the domestic market, the Xinjiang cotton area was in the boll - opening and flocculation stage. There were rumors of new cotton pre - sales, and the expectation of rush - buying at the listing stage increased, but the expected stable - to - increasing output also brought pressure in the long - term. The finished yarn inventory continued to decline slightly, and the market was observing the traditional peak season. The 200,000 - ton sliding - scale duty processing trade quota had limited impact on the market [8]. Group 2: Industry News - As of the week ending August 24, the boll - setting rate of US cotton was 81%, the flocculation rate was 20%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 54% [9]. - As of August 22, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton was 1.7126 million tons, a decrease of 143,500 tons from the previous week, and the inventory in Xinjiang was less than one million tons [9]. Group 3: Data Overview - The report presented multiple data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, and US dollar - Indian rupee exchange rate [17][18][27]