Report Industry Investment Rating - RU neutral, NR neutral, BR neutral [4][5] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, rubber prices are mainly driven by macro - logic. With a relatively low valuation, prices have shown a continuous rebound pattern under the influence of a warm market atmosphere. The future trend depends on the change of the macro - atmosphere [4] - Fundamentally, domestic latex profit is better than that of making dry rubber from glue. Affected by rainfall in domestic main - producing areas, the increase of full - latex is slow, and raw material prices strongly support domestic rubber prices. In Thailand, heavy rainfall in the northeast has made cup - rubber prices strong, and the price gap between glue and cup - rubber has continued to narrow. Rainy weather will continue to disrupt raw material output in the short term. With the slowdown of arrivals in China in July, the pressure of supply increase is limited. The profit of Thai processing plants to Chinese ports is still in a loss pattern, reducing the import pressure in China. Downstream demand remains stable without substantial highlights. Based on the good macro - atmosphere and short - term reduction of supply pressure, rubber prices are expected to continue the rebound trend, and the focus will be on the substantial improvement of the demand side in the future [5] - For BR, the butadiene rubber plants of Jinzhou Petrochemical and Heze Kexin have restarted, and Yanshan Petrochemical is expected to restart this week, so the supply shows a month - on - month increase. After the previous maintenance of downstream tire factories, the operating rate has rebounded, but it is difficult to continue to rise without bright spots in terminal demand. The supply - demand pattern of butadiene rubber is weak. Currently, the price of synthetic rubber is lower than that of natural rubber, and there is still support for downstream substitution demand. The future focus is on the price change of upstream butadiene raw materials [5] Summary by Directory Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,005 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,775 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,810 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,740 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,750 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Market Information - In June 2025, China's natural rubber (including technically specified rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 463,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21% and a year - on - year increase of 33.95%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.1257 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 26.47% [2] - In the first half of 2025, the total rubber export volume of Cote d'Ivoire was 751,700 tons, an increase of 11.8% compared with 672,600 tons in the same period of 2024. The export volume in June increased by 36.9% year - on - year and 13.3% month - on - month [2] - According to the latest data released by the Passenger Car Association, in June this year, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of this year, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger car market were 10.901 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 23, 2025, the RU basis was - 55 yuan/ton (+5), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 405 yuan/ton (- 5), the import profit of smoked sheets was - 5,652 yuan/ton (+16.01), the NR basis was 151.00 yuan/ton (+0.00); the price of full - latex was 14,950 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of 3L spot was 14,850 yuan/ton (+0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,810 US dollars/ton (- 10), the spread between full - latex and 3L was 100 yuan/ton (- 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,500 yuan/ton (- 50) [3] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 66.37 Thai baht/kg (- 0.20), the price of Thai glue was 55.30 Thai baht/kg (+0.50), the price of Thai cup - rubber was 49.95 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), and the difference between Thai glue and cup - rubber was 5.35 Thai baht/kg (+0.30) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.98% (+0.87%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 68.13% (+2.34%) [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,289,100 tons (- 6,053.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 634,586 tons (- 1,797), the RU futures inventory was 186,640 tons (- 2,050), and the NR futures inventory was 36,691 tons (- 303) [3] Butadiene Rubber (BR) - Spot and spreads: On July 23, 2025, the BR basis was - 175 yuan/ton (+25), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,600 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 12,000 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,750 yuan/ton (- 150), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,650 yuan/ton (- 100), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 928 yuan/ton (- 88) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 64.32% (- 1.22%) [3] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 7,470 tons (+870), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 24,850 tons (- 800) [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report's industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of natural rubber may fluctuate strongly due to slight inventory reduction and rising tire demand. The price of synthetic rubber may also fluctuate strongly supported by the improvement of the macro - atmosphere and rising raw material costs. Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber and synthetic rubber [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Natural Rubber Futures Active Contract - On July 22, 2025, the closing price was 15060, up 165 from the previous day; the trading volume was 567016 hands, an increase of 128226 hands; the open interest was 216311 hands, a decrease of 1817 hands; the registered warrant volume remained unchanged at 186620 [1]. Natural Rubber Basis - The natural rubber basis on July 22, 2025, was - 85, a decrease of 65 from the previous day. The daily price difference between Tianjin - Shanghai, Shandong - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF remained unchanged, while the Yunnan - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily price difference increased by 100 [1]. Natural Rubber Monthly Spread - On July 22, 2025, the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of natural rubber was - 50, a decrease of 25; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was - 5, an increase of 5; the spread between the first - continuous and the third - continuous contract was - 15, a decrease of 15 [1]. Synthetic Rubber Futures Active Contract - On July 22, 2025, the closing price was 12100, up 105 from the previous day; the trading volume was 121387 hands, an increase of 34371 hands; the open interest was 49351 hands, an increase of 34358 hands; the registered warrant volume was 9850, an increase of 150 [1]. Synthetic Rubber Basis - The synthetic rubber basis on July 22, 2025, was - 341.67, a decrease of 88.34 from the previous day. The price difference between North China - East China and South China - East China of butadiene rubber decreased by 25 [1]. Synthetic Rubber Monthly Spread - On July 22, 2025, the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of synthetic rubber was 15, a decrease of 10; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract remained unchanged at 25; the spread between the first - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 40, an increase of 20 [1]. Supply Side - In the coming days, the weather in major natural rubber producing areas such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia is stable with less precipitation, while there is precipitation in domestic producing areas. As of July 17, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber increased by 0.47% to 63.22%, and that of styrene - butadiene rubber increased by 1.6% to 78.79%. The daily after - tax gross profit of China's styrene - butadiene rubber emulsion polymerization process increased by 4.25 yuan/ton, and that of SBS solution coagulation process increased by 70.8 yuan/ton. The after - tax gross profit of butadiene rubber solution polymerization process remained unchanged [1]. Inventory Side - As of July 18, 2025, the weekly warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 0.67 thousand tons to 212.92 thousand tons; the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.12 million tons to 11.37 million tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 0.07 million tons. As of July 17, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber decreased by 123 tons to 12640 tons [1]. Cost Side - The global natural rubber supply has entered the production - increasing period. As of July 22, 2025, the glue purchase price in Thailand increased by 0.3 baht/kg, and that in Hainan increased by 100 yuan/ton. For synthetic rubber, the short - term contradiction of crude oil is not prominent, the oil price volatility returns to shock, the price of upstream raw material butadiene has increased, and the weekly inventory of butadiene ports decreased by 3.6 thousand tons to 20 thousand tons [1]. Demand Side - As of July 17, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong increased by 0.54% to 65.08%, and that of semi - steel tires in China increased by 3.07% to 75.62%. In June 2025, the retail volume of the national automobile market, passenger car sales, and truck sales all increased compared with the previous month, and the tire matching demand increased [1].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for RU and NR are cautiously bullish, and for BR is also cautiously bullish [4][6] Group 2: Core Views - The market atmosphere is warm, driving the improvement of demand expectations, and the rubber price continues the rebound trend. The profit of domestic latex is still better than that of making dry rubber from glue, and the increase of full latex is slow due to rainfall interference in domestic main producing areas. The raw material price strongly supports the domestic rubber price. The supply - side disturbances and the warm macro - atmosphere lead to the recent rebound of rubber prices. In the short term, the supply recovery pressure is limited, and the import pressure in China has decreased. The downstream semi - steel tire start - up rate has rebounded, but the terminal demand has no bright spots. Based on the good macro - atmosphere and short - term reduction of supply pressure, it is expected that the rubber price will continue the rebound trend, and the substantial improvement of the demand side should be focused on later [4][5] - For BR, the supply shows a month - on - month recovery trend, and the downstream tire factory start - up rate has rebounded after the previous maintenance, but it is difficult to continue to rise later. The supply pressure of upstream butadiene raw materials has decreased, and it is expected to maintain a strong operation, providing strong cost support for BR. The strong natural rubber makes the price difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber continue to expand, and the downstream replacement demand also supports BR [6] Group 3: Market News and Data Futures and Spot Prices - RU main contract closed at 15,060 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton from the previous day; NR main contract at 12,855 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton. Yunnan - produced full latex in Shanghai market was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,820 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton. PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 ex - factory price was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 market price was 11,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [1] Import and Export Data - In June 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 463,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21% and a year - on - year increase of 33.95%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.1257 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 26.47%. In the first half of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 751,700 tons, an increase of 11.8% compared with the same period in 2024. In June, the export volume increased by 36.9% year - on - year and 13.3% month - on - month [2] Automobile Sales Data - In June this year, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of this year, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger car market were 10.901 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [2] Group 4: Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spread**: On July 22, 2025, RU basis was - 60 yuan/ton (- 15), the spread between RU main contract and mixed rubber was 410 yuan/ton (+ 85), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 5,633 yuan/ton (+ 179.38), NR basis was 124.00 yuan/ton (- 35.00); full latex was 15,000 yuan/ton (+ 150), mixed rubber was 14,650 yuan/ton (+ 80), 3L spot was 14,850 yuan/ton (+ 50). STR20 was quoted at 1,820 US dollars/ton (+ 20), the spread between full latex and 3L was 150 yuan/ton (+ 100); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,550 yuan/ton (+ 80) [3] - **Raw Materials**: Thai smoked sheet was 66.57 baht/kg (- 0.05), Thai glue was 54.80 baht/kg (+ 0.30), Thai cup lump was 49.75 baht/kg (+ 0.45), the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 5.05 baht/kg (- 0.15) [3] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.98% (+ 0.87%), and that of semi - steel tires was 68.13% (+ 2.34%) [3] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,295,153 tons (+ 1,811.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 634,586 tons (- 1,797), the RU futures inventory was 186,640 tons (- 2,050), and the NR futures inventory was 36,691 tons (- 303) [3] Butadiene Rubber (BR) - **Spot and Spread**: On July 22, 2025, BR basis was - 200 yuan/ton (- 5), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,600 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 was 12,000 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton (+ 100), Shandong private - owned butadiene rubber was 11,800 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 840 yuan/ton (- 164) [3] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 64.32% (- 1.22%) [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,600 tons (+ 330), and the enterprise inventory of butadiene rubber was 25,650 tons (- 850) [3] Group 5: Strategy - For RU and NR, be cautiously bullish. For BR, also be cautiously bullish [4][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - RU neutral, NR neutral, BR neutral [4][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply disruptions and a warm macro - atmosphere have led to a recent rebound in rubber prices. With continued rain disturbances, short - term raw material output remains restricted, and the supply recovery pressure is limited. The downstream semi - steel tire operating rate has rebounded after maintenance, but the terminal demand lacks highlights. It is expected that rubber prices will continue to be strong. For BR, the supply is increasing, and the self - supply - demand pattern is weak, but the cost support is strong, and the substitution demand also provides support [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: RU main contract closed at 14,895 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton from the previous day; NR main contract at 12,750 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton. Spot: Yunnan whole latex in Shanghai market at 14,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; Qingdao bonded area Thai mixed rubber at 14,570 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; Qingdao bonded area Thai 20 - grade standard rubber at 1,800 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; Qingdao bonded area Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber at 1,730 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 ex - factory price at 12,000 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton; Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 market price at 11,800 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - In June 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 463,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21% and a year - on - year increase of 33.95%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.1257 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 26.47%. In the first half of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports were 751,700 tons, an increase of 11.8% compared with the same period in 2024. In June, exports increased by 36.9% year - on - year and 13.3% month - on - month. In June 2025, the national passenger car market retail volume was 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of 2025, the cumulative retail volume of the passenger car market was 10.901 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 21, 2025, RU basis was - 45 yuan/ton (- 35), the spread between RU main and mixed rubber was 325 yuan/ton (+ 15), smoked sheet rubber import profit was - 5,812 yuan/ton (- 56.07), NR basis was 124.00 yuan/ton (- 35.00); whole latex was 14,850 yuan/ton (+ 50), mixed rubber was 14,570 yuan/ton (+ 70), 3L spot was 14,800 yuan/ton (+ 50), STR20 was quoted at 1,800 US dollars/ton (+ 5), the spread between whole latex and 3L was 50 yuan/ton (+ 0), the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,470 yuan/ton (- 30). Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 66.62 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.32), Thai glue was 54.50 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), Thai cup lump was 49.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.70), the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 5.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.70). Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.98% (+ 0.87%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 68.13% (+ 2.34%). Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,295,153 tons (+ 1,811.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 634,586 tons (- 1,797), the RU futures inventory was 186,640 tons (- 2,050), and the NR futures inventory was 36,691 tons (- 303) [3] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 21, 2025, BR basis was - 195 yuan/ton (+ 25), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,600 yuan/ton (+ 200), the quotation of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 for butadiene rubber was 12,000 yuan/ton (+ 300), the quotation of Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 was 11,800 yuan/ton (+ 200), the price of Shandong private butadiene rubber was 11,750 yuan/ton (+ 250), and the import profit of butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 675 yuan/ton (+ 260). Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 65.21% (- 0.32%). Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,600 tons (+ 330), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,650 tons (- 850) [3] Strategy - RU and NR are rated neutral. The profit of domestic concentrated latex is still better than that of making dry rubber from glue, and due to rainfall interference in domestic main producing areas, the increase of whole latex is slow. Raw material prices strongly support domestic rubber prices. In Thailand, there has been more rain in the northeast recently, leading to a strong cup lump price and a continuous narrowing of the price gap between glue and cup lump [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - RU neutral, NR neutral, BR neutral [4][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent warming of the macro - atmosphere and rain disturbances in rubber main - producing areas have driven the continuous rebound of futures prices. With China in the seasonal import off - season in July and Thai processing plants still in a loss situation for shipping to Chinese ports, the domestic import pressure is expected to ease. After the end of semi - steel tire maintenance, the operating rate has rebounded, and the supply - demand pattern corresponding to NR has improved slightly. However, due to the increase in global natural rubber supply and lackluster demand, the rebound space of rubber futures prices is limited [4][5] - The price of upstream raw material butadiene is expected to remain firm in the short term as domestic butadiene supply has decreased slightly, port inventory has continued to decline, and the restart of downstream maintenance devices has boosted butadiene demand. With butadiene rubber in a loss situation, the strength of the raw material end is expected to drive the continued rebound of butadiene rubber. The supply of butadiene rubber is expected to increase next week as the number of maintenance devices decreases, and tire demand has increased month - on - month, showing a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. It is expected that butadiene rubber will follow the upstream butadiene raw material and run strongly this week [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 14,665 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,585 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,420 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,780 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,710 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 was 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - In June 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 599,000 tons, a 27.2% increase from the same period in 2024. In the first half of 2025, the total imports were 4.075 million tons, a 24.1% increase from the previous year [2] - In the first half of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export volume totaled 751,700 tons, an 11.8% increase from the same period in 2024. In June, the export volume increased by 36.9% year - on - year and 13.3% month - on - month [2] - In June 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, an 18.1% year - on - year increase and a 7.6% month - on - month increase. In the first half of the year, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger car market were 10.901 million vehicles, a 10.8% year - on - year increase [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 17, 2025, the RU basis was - 15 yuan/ton (+35), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 245 yuan/ton (+45), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 5,694 yuan/ton (+89.97), the NR basis was 135 yuan/ton (+1), full - latex was 14,650 yuan/ton (+200), mixed rubber was 14,420 yuan/ton (+120), 3L spot was 14,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), STR20 was quoted at 1,780 US dollars/ton (+15), the spread between full - latex and 3L was 100 yuan/ton (+200), and the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene was 2,420 yuan/ton (+120) [3] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 65.90 baht/kg (+0.25), Thai glue was 54.50 baht/kg (+0.20), Thai cup lump was 48.55 baht/kg (+0.20), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 5.95 baht/kg (unchanged) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.98% (+0.87%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 68.13% (+2.34%) [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,295,153 tons (+1,811), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 636,383 tons (+4,006), the RU futures inventory was 188,690 tons (- 160), and the NR futures inventory was 36,994 tons (+7,258) [3] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 17, 2025, the BR basis was - 170 yuan/ton (- 95), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (+100), the quotation of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 for butadiene rubber was 11,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 was 11,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong private butadiene rubber was 11,400 yuan/ton (+100), and the import profit of butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 977 yuan/ton (+90) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 65.21% (- 0.32%) [3] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,600 tons (+330), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,650 tons (- 850) [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: July 18, 2025 [3] Key Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Position**: On July 17, the closing price of the main contract was 11,570, up 45 from the previous day and down 45 week - on - week; the position of the main contract was 18,411, down 2,292 from the previous day and down 8,895 week - on - week; the trading volume of the main contract was 69,387, up 11,938 from the previous day and down 34,296 week - on - week [4]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Ratio**: The number of warehouse receipts was 9,700, unchanged from the previous day and up 1,100 week - on - week; the virtual - to - real ratio was 9.49, down 1 from the previous day and down 6 week - on - week [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene rubber basis was 30, up 55 from the previous day and up 145 week - on - week; the 7 - 8 spread was - 40, up 90 from the previous day and down 25 week - on - week; the 8 - 9 spread was - 50, down 25 week - on - week [4]. - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 11,600, up 100 from the previous day and up 100 week - on - week; the Chuanhua market price was 11,500, unchanged from the previous day and up 250 week - on - week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,700, unchanged from the previous day and up 100 week - on - week [4]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was - 188, down 2 from the previous day and down 104 week - on - week; the on - screen processing profit was - 218, down 57 from the previous day and down 249 week - on - week; the import profit was - 83,823, up 20 from the previous day and down 765 week - on - week [4]. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 9,400, up 100 from the previous day and up 200 week - on - week; the Jiangsu market price was 9,400, up 50 from the previous day and up 250 week - on - week; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,400, up 100 from the previous day and up 400 week - on - week [4]. - **Profit**: The carbon four extraction profit was N/A; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 446, up 190 from the previous day and up 530 week - on - week; the import profit was 651, up 124 from the previous day and up 245 week - on - week; the export profit was - 1,293, down 38 from the previous day and down 357 week - on - week [4]. Downstream Products - **Production Profit**: The ABS production profit was 518, up 73 from the previous day and up 210 week - on - week; the SBS (791 - H) production profit was 670, down 70 from the previous day and down 135 week - on - week [4]. Spread - **Inter - Variety Spread**: The RU - BR spread was - 3,746, up 2,457 from the previous day and up 9,155 week - on - week; the NR - BR spread was - 5,826, up 2,387 from the previous day and up 9,080 week - on - week; the Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 2,820, up 20 from the previous day and up 120 week - on - week [4]. - **Intra - Variety Spread**: The butadiene rubber standard - non - standard price spread was 200, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 week - on - week; the styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,150, up 50 from the previous day and up 50 week - on - week [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU is rated neutral, NR is rated neutral, and BR is rated neutral [4][5] Core Viewpoints - The warming macro - atmosphere has made futures prices stronger, and the basis of natural rubber has weakened slightly. The improvement of domestic concentrated latex import profit and the expected increase in raw material output after the end of rain may lead to an increase in domestic full - latex production. The demand for downstream products is weak, and the fundamentals of full - latex remain weak. In July, China is in the seasonal import off - season, and the loss of profit from Thai processing plants to Chinese ports is expected to reduce the import pressure. After the maintenance of downstream semi - steel tires ends, the operating rate rebounds, and the supply - demand pattern of NR improves slightly. However, due to the increase in global natural rubber supply and lackluster demand, the rebound space of rubber futures prices is limited. [4][5] - The price of upstream raw material butadiene is expected to remain firm in the short term. The supply of domestic butadiene has decreased slightly, and the port inventory has continued to decline, alleviating the supply pressure. The restart of downstream maintenance devices is beneficial to butadiene demand. Under the loss situation of butadiene rubber, the strength of the raw material end is expected to drive butadiene rubber to continue to rebound. The supply of butadiene rubber is expected to increase next week due to the reduction of maintenance devices, and the tire demand has increased month - on - month, showing a pattern of simultaneous increase in supply and demand. It is expected that butadiene rubber will follow the upstream butadiene raw material to be strong this week. [5] Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 14,395 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous day. The closing price of the NR main contract was 12,380 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from the previous day. [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,350 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,180 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The price of Indonesian 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,690 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. [1] Market Information - Import: In June 2025, China imported 599,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 27.2%. In the first half of the year, the total import was 4.075 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.1%. [2] - Passenger car market: In June 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of the year, the cumulative retail sales were 10.901 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.8%. In the first half of 2025, the production and sales of passenger cars were 13.522 million and 13.531 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.8% and 13%. The production and sales of passenger cars in 2025 developed steadily, which supported the incremental demand of the semi - steel tire supporting market. [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spread: On July 15, 2025, the RU basis was - 45 yuan/ton (+15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 215 yuan/ton (+5), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 5,863 yuan/ton (- 0.17), the NR basis was 132 yuan/ton (- 18). The price of full - latex was 14,350 yuan/ton (+50), the price of mixed rubber was 14,180 yuan/ton (+30), the price of 3L spot was 14,550 yuan/ton (unchanged). The STR20 was quoted at 1,750 US dollars/ton (+5), the spread between full - latex and 3L was - 200 yuan/ton (+50), and the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,180 yuan/ton (+30). [3] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 65.29 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai glue was 54.30 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 48.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.15), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 6.10 Thai baht/kg (- 0.15). [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.11% (- 0.42%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 65.79% (+1.66%). [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,293,342 tons (- 248), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 636,383 tons (+4,006), the RU futures inventory was 188,690 tons (- 160), and the NR futures inventory was 36,994 tons (+7,258). [3] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spread: On July 15, 2025, the BR basis was - 85 yuan/ton (+90), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 9,300 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,500 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,380 yuan/ton (- 70), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,014 yuan/ton (- 55). [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 65.54% (- 1.44%). [3] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,270 tons (- 530), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,500 tons (+150). [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - RU: Neutral [5] - NR: Neutral [5] - BR: Neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - The rubber price rebounds due to the warming market atmosphere, but the driving force is still weak. The cost - end support of rubber will gradually weaken, and the rebound strength is expected to be limited. The supply of BR changes little, and its price is expected to fluctuate within a limited range [5][6] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 14,405 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,400 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,350 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,200 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,690 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,600 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - Thailand: In 2025, Thailand's rubber production is expected to increase by 2% to 4.89 million tons. Different regions have different growth rates [2] - Vietnam: From January to May, Vietnam exported a total of 341,000 tons of mixed rubber, a year - on - year increase of 10%. Different types of mixed rubber have different growth trends [2] - China: In June, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of the year, the cumulative retail sales were 10.901 million, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [3] - US: In the first five months of 2025, the US imported a total of 120.95 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. The import of passenger car tires and truck and bus tires increased. The US imported 11.1 million tires from China, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%, but the import of passenger car and truck and bus tires from China decreased [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spread: On July 10, 2025, the RU basis was - 55 yuan/ton (- 10), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 205 yuan/ton (+ 40), etc. [4] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 65.23 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.44), Thai glue was 54.30 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), etc. [4] -开工率: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.11% (- 0.42%), and that of semi - steel tires was 65.79% (+ 1.66%) [4] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,293,342 tons (- 248), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 632,377 tons (+ 287), etc. [4] 顺丁橡胶 - Spot and Spread: On July 10, 2025, the BR basis was - 415 yuan/ton (- 305), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 9,000 yuan/ton (unchanged), etc. [4] -开工率: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 65.54% (- 1.44%) [4] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,270 tons (- 530), and the enterprise inventory was 26,500 tons (+ 150) [5] Strategy - For natural rubber (RU and NR), the rebound is driven by the warming market atmosphere, but the driving force is weak. The cost - end support will weaken, and the rebound strength is limited [5] - For BR, the supply changes little, the operating rate of semi - steel tire factories may rebound slightly, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a limited range [6]

l js 永安合成橡胶早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/7/8 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 6/5 | 6/30 | 7/3 | 7/4 | 7/7 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | 主力合约收盘价 | 10960 | 11250 | 11185 | 11275 | 11000 | -275 | -250 | | 主力合约持仓量 | 26276 | 28291 | 28760 | 27024 | 30276 | 3252 | 1985 | | 主力合约成交量 | date 20 | 96678 | 105416 | 87186 | 133795 | 46609 | 37117 | | 仓単数量 | 11800 | 7700 | 7700 | 7700 | 8100 | 400 | 400 | | 虚实比 | 11.13 | 18.37 | 18.68 | 17.55 | 18.69 | J | 0 | | 顺丁基差 | 440 | 300 | 315 | 225 | 450 | 225 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: July 4, 2025 [3] Key Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of the main contract on July 3 was 11,185, down 75 from the previous day and 10 from the previous week. The trading volume was 105,416, an increase of 15,541 from the previous day and a decrease of 2,914 from the previous week. The open interest was 28,760, an increase of 871 from the previous day and a decrease of 7,623 from the previous week [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of butadiene rubber (BR) and the spread between different months showed various changes. For example, the 7 - 8 month spread was 125 on July 3, down 25 from the previous day but up 5 from the previous week [4]. - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price remained at 11,500 on July 3, unchanged from the previous day but down 50 from the previous week. The Chuanhua market price was 11,300, down 50 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week [4]. - **Processing and Trade Profits**: The spot processing profit was 324 on July 3, an increase of 77 from the previous day and 409 from the previous week. The import profit was -83,792, a decrease of 45 from the previous day [4]. BD (Butadiene) - **Price and Volume**: The Shandong market price on July 3 was 8,800, down 75 from the previous day and 450 from the previous week. The Jiangsu market price was 8,850, down 100 from the previous day and 400 from the previous week [4]. - **Processing and Trade Profits**: The carbon four extraction profit was not available on July 3. The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was -454, a decrease of 170 from the previous day and 400 from the previous week [4]. Downstream Profits - **Production Profits**: The production profits of downstream products such as butadiene styrene rubber (SBR), acrylonitrile - butadiene - styrene (ABS), and styrene - butadiene - styrene (SBS) showed positive trends. For example, the SBR production profit was 788 on July 3, an increase of 175 from the previous day [4]. Spread - **Inter - and Intra - Product Spreads**: Different spreads between products and within the same product category changed. For example, the RU - BR spread was -14,745 on July 3, a decrease of 981 from the previous day but an increase of 7,598 from the previous week [4].