Report Information - Report Title: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2][12][22] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [2][12][22] - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [2][12][22] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume Metrics**: On September 22, the closing price of the main contract was 11,505, up 60 from the previous day and down 200 from the same period last month; the open interest was 70,306, down 4,953 from the previous day and up 51,521 from the same period last month; the trading volume was 95,866, up 1,305 from the previous day and up 59,284 from the same period last month; the warrant quantity was 9,190, down 1,040 from the previous day and down 4,480 from the same period last month; the virtual - to - real ratio was 38.25 [3][13][23]. - **Basis and Spread Metrics**: The butadiene basis was 45, down 110 from the previous day and up 50 from the same period last month; the 8 - 9 month spread was 125, down 60 from the previous day and down 30 from the same period last month; the 9 - 10 month spread was 90, down 40 from the previous day and up 120 from the same period last month [3][13][23]. - **Price and Profit Metrics**: The Shandong market price was 11,550, down 50 from the previous day and down 150 from the same period last month; the spot processing profit was - 238; the on - screen processing profit was - 283, up 162 from the previous day and down 200 from the same period last month; the export profit was 111, up 44 from the previous day and up 124 from the same period last month [3][13][23]. BD (Butadiene) - **Price and Profit Metrics**: The CFR China price was 1,060, down 10 from the previous day and down 30 from the same period last month; the carbon tetrachloride extraction profit was N/A; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 196, up 90 from the previous day and up 110 from the same period last month; the import profit was 527, up 80 from the previous day and up 197 from the same period last month; the export profit was - 896, unchanged from the previous day and up 110 from the same period last month [3][13][23]. Downstream Products - **Profit Metrics**: The butadiene - styrene production profit was 1,063, up 100 from the previous day and down 50 from the same period last month; the SBS (791 - H) production profit was 882, up 70 from the previous day and up 130 from the same period last month; the ABS production profit was N/A [3][13][23]. Variety Spreads - **Spread Metrics**: The Thai mixed - butadiene spread was 3,300, up 170 from the previous day and down 150 from the same period last month; the 3L - butadiene - styrene spread was 3,100, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged from the same period last month; the butadiene standard - non - standard spread was 150, down 50 from the previous day and down 50 from the same period last month; the butadiene - styrene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged from the same period last month; the RU - BR spread was - 54,691, up 5,033 from the previous day; the NR - BR spread was - 57,881, down 51,806 from the same period last month [3][13][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral; BR is also rated neutral [6] Core View of the Report - The Fed's rate cut is in line with expectations, leading to an adjustment in commodities and relatively weak rubber prices this week. In the next one to two weeks, domestic rainfall is expected to decrease, but overseas production areas, mainly Thailand, are still affected by rainfall. It is expected that overseas raw material prices will remain firm, and the cost - side support for rubber may still be strong. The domestic arrival volume has slightly recovered, but the recent concentrated purchasing by downstream has led to a continuous decline in Qingdao port inventory in the past week. After the end of maintenance, the downstream tire operating rate has rebounded again, and the overall downstream demand shows a pattern of seasonal improvement. However, after the downstream restocking is completed, it is expected that there will still be pressure for the domestic port inventory to rise. For BR, there are concerns about cost - side drag recently, mainly due to the weakening of crude oil prices, which may lead to an adjustment in butadiene prices. At the same time, the butadiene inventory has gradually increased recently, and there may be pressure after the downstream restocking is completed. The fundamentals of BR itself still show a good pattern, and there are maintenance plans for several BR production facilities, which are expected to lead to a phased decline in supply. The downstream tire demand is in a peak season, with increased purchasing by tire factories, and the operating rate has rebounded after the end of maintenance. The large price difference with natural rubber also supports the BR price [6] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,570 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,300 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 11,415 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan/ton. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,750 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,740 US dollars/ton, down 40 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Import: In August 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 664,000 tons, an increase of 7.8% compared with 616,000 tons in the same period of 2024. From January to August, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 5.373 million tons, an increase of 19% compared with 4.514 million tons in the same period of 2024. - Export: According to QinRex data, in the first eight months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export volume totaled 1.05 million tons, an increase of 14.4% compared with 920,000 tons in the same period of 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year but decreased by 8.9% month - on - month. - Heavy - truck sales: In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 84,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a slight decrease of 1% month - on - month and an increase of about 35% compared with 62,500 units in the same period of the previous year. From January to August this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 708,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 13%. - Automobile production and sales: From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.625 million and 9.62 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales of new vehicles. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports were 4.292 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, new energy vehicle exports were 1.532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [2][3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 18, 2025, the RU basis was - 820 yuan/ton (- 40), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 820 yuan/ton (- 60), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,576 yuan/ton (- 140.37), the NR basis was 709.00 yuan/ton (+ 91.00); the price of whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton (- 350), the price of mixed rubber was 14,750 yuan/ton (- 250), the price of 3L spot was 15,200 yuan/ton (- 100). The STR20 was quoted at 1,830 US dollars/ton (- 30), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 400 yuan/ton (- 200); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,650 yuan/ton (- 50). - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 60.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.43), the price of Thai rubber latex was 56.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.10), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.05 Thai baht/kg (- 0.60), and the spread between Thai rubber latex and cup lump was 5.25 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.70). - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 66.36% (+ 0.05%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.74% (+ 0.13%). - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,235,510 tons (- 22,205.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 586,639 tons (- 5,636), the RU futures inventory was 151,740 tons (- 10,490), and the NR futures inventory was 45,964 tons (- 605) [4][5] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 18, 2025, the BR basis was 35 yuan/ton (+ 75), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,250 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (- 200), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton (- 100), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,400 yuan/ton (- 150), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,710 yuan/ton (- 100). - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 69.72% (- 3.76%). - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 7,820 tons (- 390), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,900 tons (- 400) [5] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. For BR, also maintain a neutral view [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral; BR is rated neutral [6] Core View of the Report - For RU and NR, in the next one to two weeks, domestic rainfall is expected to decrease, but overseas main production areas like Thailand are still affected by rainfall, keeping overseas raw material prices firm and providing strong cost - side support. Domestic arrivals are slightly recovering, but downstream concentrated purchasing has led to a significant reduction in Qingdao port inventory. After maintenance, downstream tire开工率 has rebounded, and overall downstream demand is improving seasonally. In the short term, there may still be a slight reduction in inventory, and rubber prices are expected to remain firm. However, there will be pressure for port inventory to rise after downstream stocking ends. - For BR, there are concerns about cost - side drag recently. The weakening of crude oil prices may lead to an adjustment in butadiene prices, and butadiene inventory is gradually rising, which may cause pressure after downstream restocking ends. However, the fundamentals of BR itself are still good, with several production facilities having maintenance plans, expected to lead to a phased decline in supply. Downstream tire demand is in a peak season, and the large price difference with natural rubber supports BR prices [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,880 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,590 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,590 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,860 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,780 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - Import: In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 7.8% increase from the same period in 2024. From January to August, the total import was 5.373 million tons, a 19% increase. - Export: In the first eight months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase from the same period in 2024. In August, exports increased by 14.8% year - on - year but decreased by 8.9% month - on - month. - Heavy - truck sales: In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a 1% month - on - month decrease and a 35% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative sales were about 708,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase. - Automobile production and sales: From January to August, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, a 12.7% and 12.6% year - on - year increase. New energy vehicle production and sales were 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, a 37.3% and 36.7% year - on - year increase, accounting for 45.5% of total new vehicle sales. In terms of exports, 4.292 million vehicles were exported, a 13.7% year - on - year increase, including 1.532 million new energy vehicles, an 87.3% year - on - year increase [2][3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 17, 2025, the RU basis was - 780 yuan/ton (+60), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 880 yuan/ton (-10), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,477 yuan/ton (-144.61), the NR basis was 618 yuan/ton (+51); whole latex was 15,100 yuan/ton (-100), mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton (-150), 3L spot was 15,300 yuan/ton (-50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,860 US dollars/ton (-10), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 200 yuan/ton (-50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,700 yuan/ton (-150). - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 60.63 baht/kg (-0.05), Thai latex was 56.20 baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup lump was 51.65 baht/kg (+0.20), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.55 baht/kg (-0.20). -开工率: The开工率 of all - steel tires was 66.31% (+5.57%), and that of semi - steel tires was 72.61% (+5.69%). - Inventory: Natural rubber social inventory was 1,235,510 tons (-22,205), Qingdao port natural rubber inventory was 586,639 tons (-5,636), RU futures inventory was 151,740 tons (-10,490), and NR futures inventory was 45,964 tons (-605) [4][5] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 17, 2025, the BR basis was - 40 yuan/ton (+85), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,250 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quoted price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of Shandong private - owned butadiene rubber was 11,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,629 yuan/ton (unchanged). -开工率: The开工率 of high - cis butadiene rubber was 73.48% (-2.68%). - Inventory: Butadiene rubber trader inventory was 7,820 tons (-390), and butadiene rubber enterprise inventory was 25,900 tons (-400) [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [8] Core Viewpoints - The cost - side support for natural rubber may continue, with domestic Qingdao port and social inventories showing a slight decline. Attention should be paid to the raw material procurement willingness of downstream factories during the upcoming traditional peak season [8] - For BR, production is expected to decline in September, but downstream demand is likely to pick up during the traditional peak season, leading to a slight improvement in the supply - demand situation. The inventory is expected to remain stable, and the cost - side support still exists [8] Market News and Data Futures - On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,960 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,735 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 11,810 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The Shanghai market price of Yunnan - produced whole latex was 15,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,845 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,785 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information Global Natural Rubber Supply and Demand - ANRPC's July 2025 report predicted that global natural rubber production in July would slightly decrease by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, up 7.9% from the previous month; consumption would decrease by 4.1% to 1.246 million tons, down 0.3% from the previous month. In the first 7 months, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 0.1% to 7.477 million tons, while the cumulative consumption would decrease by 0.6% to 8.888 million tons [2] China's Heavy - Truck Market - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 84,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), down 1% month - on - month and up about 35% year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative sales in China's heavy - truck market were about 708,000 units, up about 13% year - on - year [2] Thailand's Natural Rubber Exports - In the first 7 months of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.586 million tons, down 5% year - on - year. Among them, the export of standard rubber was 919,000 tons, down 15% year - on - year; the export of smoked sheet rubber was 227,000 tons, up 25% year - on - year; the export of latex was 431,000 tons, up 9% year - on - year. From January to July, Thailand's exports of natural rubber to China totaled 622,000 tons, up 7% year - on - year. The export of standard rubber to China was 398,000 tons, down 15% year - on - year; the export of smoked sheet rubber to China was 65,000 tons, up 306% year - on - year; the export of latex to China was 157,000 tons, up 65% year - on - year [2] China's Natural Rubber Imports - In July 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including technical - grade rubber, latex, smoked sheet rubber, rubber in primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) were 474,800 tons, up 2.47% month - on - month and down 1.91% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, up 21.82% year - on - year [3] Cote d'Ivoire's Rubber Exports - In the first 7 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 908,487 tons, up 14.3% compared with the same period in 2024. In July alone, the export volume increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [3] China's Rubber Tire Exports - In the first 7 months of 2025, China's exports of rubber tires reached 5.63 million tons, up 5.4% year - on - year, and the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, up 5.4% year - on - year. From January to July, the export volume of automobile tires was 4.8 million tons, up 4.9% year - on - year, and the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, up 4.9% year - on - year [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On September 4, 2025, the RU basis was - 910 yuan/ton (- 25), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 985 yuan/ton (- 5), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,293 yuan/ton (+ 54.64), the NR basis was 403.00 yuan/ton (+ 34.00); the price of whole latex was 15,050 yuan/ton (+ 50), the price of mixed rubber was 14,900 yuan/ton (+ 20), the price of 3L spot was 15,150 yuan/ton (+ 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,845 US dollars/ton (+ 5), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 100 yuan/ton (+ 0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,400 yuan/ton (+ 20) [4] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 61.35 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.06), the price of Thai latex was 55.80 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.20), the price of Thai cup lump was 52.05 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.75), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 3.75 Thai baht/kg (- 0.55) [5][6] 开工率 - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 60.74% (- 4.15%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 66.92% (- 4.05%) [7] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,264,898 tons (- 5,911.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 602,295 tons (- 3,908), the RU futures inventory was 178,640 tons (+ 170), and the NR futures inventory was 45,662 tons (+ 805) [7] 顺丁橡胶 Spot and Spreads - On September 4, 2025, the BR basis was - 60 yuan/ton (+ 75), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,500 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton (+ 0), the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,800 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of private - owned BR in Shandong was 11,650 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,343 yuan/ton (+ 16) [7] 开工率 - The operating rate of high - cis BR was 76.16% (+ 0.31%) [7] Inventory - The inventory of BR traders was 7,260 tons (+ 640), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 24,650 tons (- 450) [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost - end support for natural rubber may continue, with domestic Qingdao port and social inventories showing a slight downward trend. Attention should be paid to the raw material procurement willingness of factories during the upcoming downstream traditional peak season [8] - For cis - butadiene rubber, the supply - demand situation may improve slightly, and the inventory is expected to remain stable. The cost - end support for cis - butadiene rubber still exists [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,885 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton), the NR main contract was at 12,715 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton), and the BR main contract was at 11,885 yuan/ton (+65 yuan/ton) [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,000 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton), the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,900 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton), etc. [1] Market Information - Global natural rubber: In July 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to slightly decrease by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, and consumption was expected to drop by 4.1% to 1.246 million tons. In the first 7 months, cumulative production was expected to increase by 0.1% to 7.477 million tons, and cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 0.6% to 8.888 million tons [2] - China's heavy - truck market: In August 2025, the sales volume was about 84,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August, the cumulative sales volume was about 708,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 13% [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports: In the first 7 months of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.586 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. Exports to China totaled 622,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7% [2] - China's natural rubber imports: In July 2025, the import volume was 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [3] - Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports: In the first 7 months of 2025, the export volume was 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [3] - China's rubber tire exports: In the first 7 months of 2025, the export volume was 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%, and the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 3, 2025, the RU basis was - 885 yuan/ton (-15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 985 yuan/ton (-5), etc. [4] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 61.29 baht/kg (+0.31), the price of Thai glue was 55.60 baht/kg (+0), and the price of Thai cup lump was 51.30 baht/kg (+0.10) [5] -开工率：The full - steel tire operating rate was 64.89% (-0.08%), and the semi - steel tire operating rate was 70.97% (-0.90%) [7] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,264,898 tons (-5,911 tons), the inventory at Qingdao Port was 602,295 tons (-3,908 tons), etc. [7] Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 3, 2025, the BR basis was - 135 yuan/ton (-65), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,500 yuan/ton (+0), etc. [7] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 75.85% (+6.70%) [7] - Inventory: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 7,260 tons (+640 tons), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 24,650 tons (-450 tons) [7] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. The cost - end support for natural rubber may continue, and attention should be paid to the raw material procurement willingness of factories during the downstream traditional peak season [8] - For BR, maintain a neutral stance. The supply - demand situation may slightly improve, and the inventory is expected to remain stable. The cost - end support for cis - butadiene rubber still exists [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for both RU and NR, as well as for BR [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost - side support for natural rubber may continue. The inventories at Qingdao Port and in the society are showing a slight downward trend. With the upcoming traditional peak season for downstream industries, attention should be paid to the raw material procurement willingness of factories [8] - For BR, some devices have maintenance plans in September, and the overall supply - demand situation may show a slight improvement. The inventory is expected to remain stable, and there is still cost - side support [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,860 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,680 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,895 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,840 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,780 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Heavy - truck market: In August 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 84,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August, the cumulative sales volume was about 708,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 13% [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports: From January to July 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.586 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. Exports to China totaled 622,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7% [2] - China's natural rubber imports: In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [2] - Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports: From January to July 2025, the export volume was 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In July alone, the export volume increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [3] - China's rubber tire exports: From January to July 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%, and the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires was 4.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%, and the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 1, 2025, the RU basis was - 910 yuan/ton (unchanged), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,060 yuan/ton (unchanged), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,274 yuan/ton (up 49.74 yuan), the NR basis was 375 yuan/ton (up 79 yuan) [4] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 60.98 Thai baht/kg (down 0.10 Thai baht), the price of Thai latex was 55.45 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.05 Thai baht/kg (up 0.55 Thai baht), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.40 Thai baht/kg (down 0.55 Thai baht) [4] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.89% (down 0.08%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 70.97% (down 0.90%) [5] - Inventories: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,270,809 tons (down 14,554 tons), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 602,295 tons (down 3,908 tons), the RU futures inventory was 178,640 tons (up 170 tons), and the NR futures inventory was 45,662 tons (up 805 tons) [6][7] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 1, 2025, the BR basis was - 45 yuan/ton (up 55 yuan), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,850 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,293 yuan/ton (down 217 yuan) [7] - Operating rates: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 75.85% (up 6.70%) [7] - Inventories: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,620 tons (down 790 tons), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,100 tons (up 1,900 tons) [7] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. The cost - side support for natural rubber may continue. Monitor the raw material procurement willingness of downstream factories during the peak season [8] - For BR, maintain a neutral stance. The supply - demand situation may improve slightly, and the inventory is expected to remain stable. The cost - side support still exists [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for natural rubber is "oscillating" [3] Core Viewpoints - The natural rubber market is affected by continuous disturbances in the weather of the producing areas, with strong cost support. The inventory in the middle reaches has decreased slightly, and the downstream operating rate has fluctuated slightly. The sentiment in the commodity market is weak, so it may maintain an oscillating performance in the short term [3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The supply in domestic, Thai, and Vietnamese producing areas is tight due to weather disturbances, driving up raw material prices [3] - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese tire sample enterprises has decreased slightly, and it is expected to decline slightly in the next period [3] - **Inventory**: As of August 24, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory has decreased, and the inventory in Qingdao has also decreased [3][102] - **Basis/Spread**: The RU - mixed spread has slightly widened, and the RU - NR spread has slightly narrowed [3] - **Profit**: The theoretical production profits of Thai standard rubber, Hainan concentrated latex, and Yunnan whole - milk rubber have all shown losses [3] - **Valuation**: The current absolute price is at a medium - to - high level, and the overall valuation is still high [3] - **Commodity Market**: The overall atmosphere is bearish as it approaches the 09 - contract delivery, and the previous hype sentiment has cooled down [3] - **Investment View**: It is expected to maintain an oscillating performance in the short term [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on BR and short on NR [3] Futures and Spot Market Review - **Market Review**: Affected by rainfall in the producing areas, natural rubber has maintained an oscillating performance. The supply is less than expected, the raw material price is high, the inventory has decreased slightly, but the market sentiment is weak [6] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices have rebounded slightly [9] - **Position on the Disk**: The total position of NR has increased significantly [23] - **Spread on the Disk**: The RU1 - 9 spread has declined [31] Rubber Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Weather in Producing Areas**: Rainfall in the producing areas continues to cause disturbances [39] - **Output of Major Producing Countries**: In June, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 4.739 million tons (+2.95%) [63] - **Export Volume of Major Producing Countries**: In June, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 4.652 million tons (+8.04%) [73] - **China's Import**: From January to July, China imported 3.6005 million tons of natural rubber (+21.82%). In July, the import volume increased slightly month - on - month [86][101] - **Mid - stream Inventory**: China's natural rubber social inventory has decreased slightly, and the inventory in Qingdao has also decreased [102] - **Downstream Tire Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises has fluctuated slightly and is expected to decline slightly in the next period [118] - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In July, the growth rate of automobile sales expanded, and the sales volume of heavy trucks increased significantly year - on - year [124] - **Tire Exports**: From January to July, China's rubber tire exports were 5.34 million tons (+4.9%) [134] - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber is in the red, while the production profit of Thai latex is stable [142]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral. The rating for BR is also neutral [7]. Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, the support mainly comes from the cost side and the macro - environment. With the weakening of the macro - market, rubber prices may face adjustment pressure. The supply - demand contradiction of natural rubber itself is not prominent. The cost - side support is further strengthened due to rainfall interference in upstream areas. There is an expectation of increased arrivals in the later period, and there may be pressure on Qingdao ports to accumulate inventory again. It is expected that the domestic supply and demand will show a pattern of both being strong later [7]. - For BR, the upstream production is stable and the inventory is relatively low year - on - year. The improvement of downstream production profits is conducive to the increase of the operating rate. The cost side of BR still has support. The upstream supply of BR is abundant, and the supply increases month - on - month. The downstream demand is still in the off - season, and there is expected to be inventory accumulation pressure later. Currently, BR production continues to be in a loss pattern, and the upstream butadiene raw material price and the surrounding natural rubber prices support the lower limit of BR [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,945 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,780 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 11,980 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,840 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,780 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [1]. Market Information - Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) in the first 7 months of 2025 totaled 1.586 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. Exports to China totaled 622,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7% [2]. - China's natural rubber imports in July 2025 were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. The cumulative import volume from January to July was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [2]. - Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports in the first 7 months of 2025 were 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In July alone, exports increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [2]. - China's rubber tire exports in the first 7 months of 2025 reached 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%, and the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. Automobile tire exports were 4.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%, and the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [3]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On August 28, 2025, the RU basis was - 945 yuan/ton (+15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,095 yuan/ton (+35), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,269 yuan/ton (+337.62), the NR basis was 296.00 yuan/ton (- 31.00); the price of whole latex was 15,000 yuan/ton (+200), the price of mixed rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton (+150), the price of 3L spot was 15,150 yuan/ton (+150). The STR20 was quoted at 1,840 US dollars/ton (+20), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 150 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,350 yuan/ton (+150) [4]. - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 61.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.69), the price of Thai glue was 55.45 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.70 Thai baht/kg (- 0.10), the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.75 Thai baht/kg (+0.10) [4]. - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.89% (- 0.08%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 70.97% (- 0.90%) [5]. - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,270,809 tons (- 14,554.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 606,203 tons (- 10,528), the RU futures inventory was 178,470 tons (- 1,460), and the NR futures inventory was 44,857 tons (- 1,612) [5]. BR - Spot and spreads: On August 28, 2025, the BR basis was - 130 yuan/ton (- 120), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton (unchanged), the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,900 yuan/ton (+200), the price of private - owned BR in Shandong was 11,750 yuan/ton (+200), the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,068 yuan/ton (+211) [6]. - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis BR was 75.85% (+6.70%) [6]. - Inventory: The inventory of BR traders was 6,620 tons (- 790), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 25,100 tons (+1,900) [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are cautiously bullish [5] - BR is neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - The upstream main producing areas at home and abroad are still in the rainy season, with limited raw material output and expected to maintain a strong price pattern. After the rain stops, the output may increase again. There is an expectation of an increase in the arrival volume at the end of August in China, and the Qingdao port is expected to face the pressure of re - accumulating inventory. However, the purchasing intention of downstream tire factories before the peak season also needs to be considered. It is expected that the domestic supply and demand will show a pattern of both prosperity in the later stage. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly under the support of supply and the warm macro - atmosphere [5] - The upstream production of BR is stable and the inventory is low year - on - year. The improvement of downstream production profit is conducive to the increase of the operating rate. It is expected that the butadiene raw material will maintain a strong pattern, and the cost side of BR still has support. The upstream supply of BR is abundant, and the supply increases month - on - month as the number of overhaul devices decreases. The downstream demand is still in the off - season, and there is still pressure to accumulate inventory in the later stage. At present, the production of BR continues to be in a loss pattern, and the short - term firm price of the upstream butadiene raw material and the surrounding natural rubber prices support the lower price of BR [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,905 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,785 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 12,010 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,840 US dollars/ton, up 35 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,785 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,900 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [2] - In the first seven months of 2025, the rubber export volume of Cote d'Ivoire was 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase compared with 794,831 tons in the same period in 2024. In July alone, the export volume increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [2] - In the first seven months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%; the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to July, the export volume of automobile tires was 4.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%; the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [2] - In July 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, including export and new - energy models, an increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year [2] - In July, China's commercial vehicle production and sales were 298,000 and 306,000 vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 16.3% and 14.1%, in a state of restorative improvement. Affected by seasonal factors, they decreased by 15.8% and 17.1% month - on - month respectively. The recovery of logistics demand, the scrapping of old operating trucks, and the new - energy purchase subsidy policies promoted the mild recovery of the industry [3] - In the first half of 2025, the United States imported a total of 143.43 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. Among them, the import of passenger car tires increased by 3% year - on - year to 84.89 million; the import of truck and bus tires increased by 10% year - on - year to 32.32 million; the import of aircraft tires decreased by 13% year - on - year to 132,000; the import of motorcycle tires increased by 22% year - on - year to 1.88 million; the import of bicycle tires increased by 5% year - on - year to 3.15 million [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spread: On August 25, 2025, the RU basis was - 1,055 yuan/ton (- 130), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 1,055 yuan/ton (+ 30), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,612 yuan/ton (+ 149.53), the NR basis was 363.00 yuan/ton (+ 60.00); the whole latex was 14,850 yuan/ton (+ 150), the mixed rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton (+ 250), the 3L spot was 15,000 yuan/ton (+ 150). The STR20 was quoted at 1,840 US dollars/ton (+ 35), the spread between the whole latex and 3L was - 150 yuan/ton (+ 0); the spread between the mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,550 yuan/ton (+ 250) [4] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 62.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.75), the price of Thai glue was 55.25 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.25), the price of Thai cup lump was 49.85 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.35), and the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 5.40 Thai baht/kg (- 0.10) [4] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.97% (+ 2.35%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 71.87% (+ 2.76%) [4] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,285,363 tons (+ 7,504.00), the inventory of natural rubber in the Qingdao Port was 606,203 tons (- 10,528), the RU futures inventory was 178,470 tons (- 1,460), and the NR futures inventory was 44,857 tons (- 1,612) [5] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and Spread: On August 25, 2025, the BR basis was - 110 yuan/ton (- 50), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,900 yuan/ton (+ 250), the price of Shandong private butadiene rubber was 11,700 yuan/ton (+ 200), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 972 yuan/ton (+ 163) [5] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 69.15% (+ 4.63%) [5] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 7,410 tons (+ 420), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 23,200 tons (- 250) [5]

Report Information - Report Title: Yong'an Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2][13][24] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [2][13][24] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [2][13][24] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume Metrics**: On August 22, the closing price of the main contract was 11,660, down 115 from the previous day and 155 from the weekly comparison; the open interest was 35,755, a daily decrease of 2,681 but a weekly increase of 15,399; the trading volume was 89,334, down 17,547 from the previous day but up 26,069 from the weekly comparison; the warrant quantity was 12,190, unchanged from the previous day but up 1,720 from the weekly comparison; the long - short ratio was 14.67, a daily decrease of 1 but a weekly increase of 5 [3][14][25]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene styrene basis was 590, a daily increase of 205; the 8 - 9 spread was 145, a daily increase of 75 and a weekly increase of 80; the 9 - 10 spread was 20, a daily increase of 40 and a weekly increase of 25 [3][14][25]. - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 11,700, down 50 from the previous day but unchanged from the weekly comparison; the Transfar market price was 11,650, down 50 from the previous day but up 50 from the weekly comparison; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,900, unchanged from the previous day but up 100 from the weekly comparison; CFR Northeast Asia was 1,450, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia was 1,725, unchanged from the previous day but down 10 from the weekly comparison [3][14][25]. - **Processing and Trade Profits**: The spot processing profit was - 1, with a daily increase of 62 and a weekly increase of 36; the on - screen processing profit was 41, a daily decrease of 3 but a weekly decrease of 119; the import profit was - 82,362, a daily decrease of 108 and a weekly decrease of 790; the export profit was - 420, a daily increase of 49 but a weekly decrease of 2 [3][14][25]. BD (Butadiene) - **Price Metrics**: The Shandong market price was 9,315, down 110 from the previous day and 35 from the weekly comparison; the Jiangsu market price was 9,250, down 100 from the previous day and 50 from the weekly comparison; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,400, unchanged; CFR China was 1,080, unchanged from the previous day but up 10 from the weekly comparison [3][14][25]. - **Processing and Trade Profits**: The carbon four extraction profit data was unavailable; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 156, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 50; the import profit was 337, a daily decrease of 105 and a weekly decrease of 129; the export profit was - 945, a daily increase of 91 and a weekly increase of 114 [3][14][25]. Downstream Products - **Production Profits**: The butadiene rubber production profit was - 41, a daily decrease of 3 and a weekly decrease of 119; the butadiene styrene production profit was 938, unchanged from the previous day but up 100 from the weekly comparison; the ABS production profit data was unavailable; the SBS (791 - H) production profit was 1,145, unchanged [3][14][25]. Inter - and Intra - Product Spreads - **Inter - Product Spreads**: The Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 2,900, a daily increase of 30 but a weekly decrease of 50; the 3L - butadiene styrene spread was 2,600, unchanged from the previous day and a weekly decrease of 50 [3][14][25]. - **Intra - Product Spreads**: The butadiene rubber standard - non - standard spread was 200, a daily increase of 50 but unchanged from the weekly comparison; the butadiene styrene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, unchanged [3][14][25].