人民财讯12月12日电，中金公司（601995）发布造纸行业2026年展望称，展望2026年，消费需求仍在温 和修复阶段，各类纸种供给变化各异：浆纸系纸种供需仍然宽松，浆价成为行业补库、及去库关键推动 力，浆纸一体化龙头有望继续获得超额利润；箱板瓦楞纸产能已基本收尾，有望率先走出本轮供需失衡 周期，迎来产能利用率修复，吨纸价格中枢同比抬升的业绩修复行情。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industry is expected to experience a moderate recovery in consumer demand by 2026, with varying supply dynamics across different paper types. The supply-demand balance for pulp paper remains relatively loose, while corrugated box paper is anticipated to recover first from the current supply-demand imbalance, leading to improved capacity utilization and price recovery [2][3][4]. Pulp Paper Supply and Demand - The supply-demand structure for pulp paper is expected to remain relatively loose, with a moderate recovery in overall paper demand anticipated for 2026. Although supply is nearing its peak, new capacity is expected to be released in 2025, leading to a relatively loose supply-demand balance, with cultural paper facing more pressure than specialty paper and white card paper [2][4]. - The price of pulp is becoming a key driver for inventory adjustments in the industry, with expectations of a year-on-year recovery in pulp prices in 2026, projected to fluctuate between $550 and $650 per ton [2][4][14]. Corrugated Box Paper - The demand for corrugated box paper is highly sensitive to consumer trends, with expected consumption growth rates of 8% and 4% for 2023 and 2024, respectively. The total consumption increase from 2022 to 2025 is estimated to be around 10 million tons [3][4]. - The expansion of supply has entered its final phase, with major players like Nine Dragons and Lee & Man halting expansion plans, leading to a favorable environment for price recovery in 2026 [3][4]. Raw Material Scarcity - The scarcity of quality forest and pulp assets is expected to increase, driven by global economic growth and limited high-quality forest resources. Companies with superior forest and pulp assets are likely to benefit [3][4]. Cultural Paper - The cultural paper segment is facing increasing supply-demand pressure, with expectations of a decline in profit margins in 2026 due to significant new capacity coming online and weak demand from educational materials [18][28]. - The industry is expected to see a decline in profit margins for cultural paper, with major players needing to focus on cost control capabilities, particularly in self-produced pulp [18][28]. White Card Paper - The white card paper segment is experiencing continued supply-demand weakness, with a slight price recovery observed in late 2025. However, the overall consumption remains weak, and the industry is expected to face challenges in achieving a balance in supply and demand [27][28]. - The industry is projected to have no significant new capacity additions in 2026, with the focus shifting towards cost control and the ability to self-supply raw materials [27][28]. Specialty Paper - The specialty paper sector is entering a consolidation phase, with increased competition from larger players and a potential decline in prices due to oversupply and weak demand [36][37]. - The market for specialty paper is expected to see a significant reshuffling, with smaller companies likely to exit as larger players expand their capacities [36][37]. Overall Industry Outlook - The overall outlook for the paper industry in 2026 is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of improved capacity utilization and price recovery as the market digests past supply expansions and consumer demand gradually recovers [51][52].

胶板印刷纸期货基础知识之供应篇 银河期货 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 第一部分 胶版印刷纸基础知识分享 GALAXY FUTURES 1 造纸产业链分析 GALAXY FUTURES 2 胶版印刷纸产业链 文化印刷用纸主要产品为双胶纸、铜 版纸； 部分文化纸以混浆、再生浆作为原料， 但市场占比较小， 多数生产工艺仍是 以针叶浆、阔叶浆和化机浆作为主要 原料； 主要下游需求以印刷出版为主。其中 每年的出版招标需求是双胶纸的主要 需求支撑，铜版纸则受社会需求影响 更大。 图片来源：卓创资讯，银河期货 GALAXY FUTURES 3 胶版印刷纸产能分布 1800 万吨 双胶纸 产能增速(右轴） 1550 1300 1050 800 2020年 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 华东 华南 华中 其他 2024年 2023年 2022年 2021年 2020年 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2020-2024年双胶纸产能情况 国内双胶纸产能分布情况 近五年双胶纸产能逐年递增。从区域分布来看，集 ...

胶版印刷纸期货基础知识和基本面分享 银河期货 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 第一部分 双胶纸基础及合约介绍 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 胶版印刷纸产业链 文化印刷用纸主要产品为双胶 纸、铜版纸； 部分文化纸以混浆、再生浆作 为原料，但市场占比较小， 多 数生产工艺仍是以针叶浆、阔 叶浆和化机浆作为主要原料； 主要下游需求以印刷出版为主。 其中每年的出版招标需求是双 胶纸的主要需求支撑，铜版纸 则受社会需求影响更大。 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Bohui Paper (600966.SH) plans to invest 1.701 billion yuan to upgrade its existing chemical pulp production line, increasing annual capacity from 95,000 tons to 320,000 tons, which is a key move in its "pulp-paper integration" strategy [2][4] - The company aims to enhance its self-supply ratio of raw materials, reduce production costs, and improve its core competitiveness and influence after the completion of the investment project, which is expected to take 24 months [4] - The domestic paper industry is highly dependent on imported wood pulp, and fluctuations in international pulp prices have been eroding profit margins for companies like Bohui Paper [3] Group 2 - Bohui Paper's net profit has been declining significantly, dropping from 1.706 billion yuan in 2021 to 176 million yuan in 2024, a cumulative decrease of over 90% [3] - In 2022, despite a revenue increase of 12.81% to 18.362 billion yuan, the company's net profit plummeted by 86.63% to 228 million yuan, indicating a situation of "increased revenue but decreased profit" [3] - For the first three quarters of 2025, Bohui Paper reported a revenue of 14.450 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.46%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 18.57% to 121 million yuan [3]

Summary of Xianhe Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Xianhe Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Pulp and Paper Key Points Diversification and Raw Material Layout - Xianhe has diversified its raw material sources, including non-eucalyptus fibers such as reed pulp and sugarcane pulp, enhancing its risk resistance and laying a foundation for new product development [2][4] - The Hubei base has reached full production capacity for biological paper using reed pulp, while the Guangxi phase one has been fully operational, with phase two planning for fluff pulp production [2][4] Capacity Expansion Plans - Domestic capacity expansion is progressing steadily, with Guangxi phase two expected to be operational by the end of 2026 and a unique project in Sichuan anticipated to partially launch by the end of 2027 [2][6] - The overseas base in Cambodia is expected to start production by the end of 2026, with considerations for expansion into the Middle East to avoid trade barriers and expand international markets [2][6] Profitability and Market Outlook - Xianhe expects industry price increases in 2026 to improve profitability, with ongoing overseas base construction and cost control measures [2][7] - The company anticipates a recovery in the specialty paper industry, with its leading position expected to yield more pronounced trends compared to peers [3] Investment in Southeast Asia - The investment in Cambodia aims to explore the Southeast Asian market, serving clients in Vietnam and Cambodia, with future plans to assess Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia [9][12] - The investment in Cambodia is approximately 500 million RMB, considered a preliminary attempt to establish a production base close to key markets [9] Product Production and Market Demand - The Cambodian base will produce over 10 types of products, including consumer materials and industrial materials, with flexibility to adjust production based on customer needs [10] Competitive Advantages - Chinese companies have strong production capabilities in tobacco-related materials, having overcome technical challenges and aligning with international standards, enhancing competitiveness in global markets [11] Pulp Price Trends - Pulp prices are on a cyclical upward trend, having increased by $50 in September, with domestic prices rising by 200 RMB, driven by rising wood chip costs [13][14] - The average production cost in China is approximately $490 per ton, but rising wood chip prices are pushing costs higher, potentially impacting profit margins [15] Strategic Responses to Market Conditions - Xianhe maintains a stable ratio of self-use to external sales, with approximately 20% of production sold externally to ensure customer relationships and market share [17][18] - The company is prepared to adjust import-export structures and optimize internal resource allocation in response to raw material supply fluctuations [19] Capital Expenditure Plans - Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected at 3 billion RMB, primarily for projects in Sichuan, Hubei, Guangxi phase two, and Cambodia [23] Overall Financial Performance - In 2025, Xianhe's overall costs have decreased, leading to better profit performance, with brand and service quality becoming increasingly important in a challenging market [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The company has steadily expanded over thirty years, becoming a leading integrated paper and pulp enterprise with a comprehensive industrial chain, and is expected to see significant profit growth in the coming years due to improved supply-demand dynamics and cost optimization from its integrated operations [1][2]. Company Overview - Established in 1995 and headquartered in Dongguan, Guangdong, the company is the world's largest paper producer and a leader in integrated pulp and paper operations, with a design capacity exceeding 23 million tons [1]. - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% in revenue over the past decade, with projected revenue of 63.24 billion for FY2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.77 billion in FY2025, representing a substantial year-on-year growth of 135% [1]. Industry Dynamics - The demand for corrugated paper is expected to remain stable, with consumption projected at 35.82 million tons and 34.07 million tons for boxboard and corrugated paper respectively in 2024, supported by a CAGR of 8.3% and 7.5% over the past five years [1][2]. - The industry has returned to a capacity expansion cycle since 2022, with increased imports due to waste bans and zero tariff policies, leading to temporary price pressures [2]. - The industry is expected to gradually improve its supply-demand balance as leading companies' capital expenditures decrease post-2025, and smaller capacities exit the market [2]. Production Capacity and Strategy - The company has been expanding its production capacity even during industry downturns, with a projected design capacity of nearly 29 million tons by June 30, 2025, and over 5 million tons of new paper capacity added from FY2022 to FY2025 [2]. - The company is focusing on high-end products such as high-grade kraft paper and white cardboard, which have higher profit margins, leading to a noticeable decrease in per-ton costs [2]. - The company is advancing its integrated pulp and paper strategy, with plans to achieve 1.02 million tons of self-sufficient raw material capacity by 2027, which will help reduce waste paper procurement costs and stabilize production quality [2]. Financial Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.12 billion, 3.49 billion, and 3.84 billion for FY2026 to FY2028, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 8.6X, 7.7X, and 7.0X [3]. - The current PE and price-to-book (PB) ratios are at historical lows, and with the ongoing integration of pulp and paper operations, profitability is expected to improve as the market recovers [3]. - A target price range of 6.6 to 8.0 per share is set, with a "buy" rating assigned based on relative valuation methods [3].

Group 1 - Company has been steadily expanding for thirty years, establishing a more complete industrial chain, and is currently the world's largest paper production group and a leader in the integrated pulp and paper industry [1] - The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Dongguan, Guangdong Province, China, with a current design capacity of over 23 million tons of paper [1] - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% in revenue over the past ten years, with projected revenue of 63.24 billion in FY2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [2] Group 2 - The demand for corrugated box paper is expected to remain stable, with consumption projected at 35.82 million tons in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 8.3% over the past five years [3] - The industry has returned to a capacity expansion cycle since 2022, with supply-demand imbalances leading to short-term price pressures, but the situation is expected to improve as smaller capacities exit the market [3] - The company has been expanding its production capacity, with a design capacity nearing 29 million tons by June 30, 2025, and a CAGR of 9% in new paper production capacity from FY2022 to FY2025 [4] Group 3 - The company is focusing on the integrated development of pulp and paper, with significant results in its industrial chain layout, including plans for 700,000 tons of recycled pulp capacity and over 2 million tons of wood pulp capacity by the end of FY2025 [4] - The company is diversifying its product structure by expanding high-end products such as high-grade kraft paper and white cardboard, leading to a noticeable decrease in per-ton paper costs [4] - The company aims to achieve a self-sufficiency rate of 1.02 million tons of raw materials by 2027, which will help minimize waste paper procurement costs and ensure stable production quality [4]

Group 1 - The company, Jiu Long Paper, is expected to achieve net profits of 3.12 billion, 3.49 billion, and 3.84 billion CNY for FY26-28, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.6X, 7.7X, and 7.0X [1] - The company has been steadily expanding for thirty years, evolving from a packaging-focused business to a comprehensive pulp and paper industry chain [1] - The company’s revenue has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% over the past decade, with projected revenue of 63.24 billion CNY for FY25, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [1] Group 2 - The demand for corrugated box paper is expected to grow, with consumption projected at 35.82 million tons and 34.07 million tons for box paper and corrugated paper respectively in 2024, supported by a CAGR of 8.3% and 7.5% over the past five years [2] - The industry has returned to a capacity expansion cycle since 2022, with increased imports due to waste bans and zero tariff policies, leading to temporary price pressures [2] - The Guangdong Paper Association has initiated an "anti-involution" campaign to resist low-price competition and optimize capacity structure, indicating a positive shift in industry direction [2] Group 3 - The company has been expanding its production capacity even during industry downturns, with a design capacity nearing 29 million tons by June 30, 2025, and a CAGR of 9% for new paper production capacity from FY2022 to FY2025 [3] - The company is focusing on high-end products such as high-grade kraft paper and white cardboard, leading to a noticeable decrease in per-ton production costs [3] - The company aims to achieve a self-sufficiency rate of 1.02 million tons in raw materials by 2027, which will help reduce waste paper procurement costs and ensure stable production quality [3]

Core Insights - The paper industry cluster in Rizhao has achieved an annual output value exceeding 20 billion yuan, supported by 35 regulated enterprises [2][4] - The cluster is characterized by advanced technology and a focus on green and intelligent production methods, exemplified by the operations of Asia Pacific Senbo [2][5] Group 1: Industry Overview - Rizhao's paper industry cluster includes leading companies like Asia Pacific Senbo and Huatai Paper, which have transformed from single-product manufacturers to comprehensive industrial parks [3][5] - The cluster's production capabilities include 2.35 million tons of wood pulp, 600,000 tons of white cardboard, 500,000 tons of cultural paper, 150,000 tons of household paper, and 30,000 tons of lyocell fiber annually [3] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Asia Pacific Senbo operates the world's fastest paper machine, producing paper at a speed of 1,800 meters per minute, with automated systems ensuring quality control [2][3] - Huatai Paper has developed high-transparency stretchable paper that can replace plastic in various packaging applications, achieving a domestic market share of over 20% for high-end packaging paper [3][4] Group 3: Economic Impact - The development of the paper industry cluster has created thousands of jobs and supported over 1,000 enterprises in Shandong province, forming a complete supply chain [4][5] - The cluster is projected to produce 2.6 million tons of pulp and 1.6 million tons of paper products in 2024, with a growth rate of 13.94% in output value [4]