Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been adjusted to "Accumulate" [8] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance exceeded expectations primarily due to significant non-recurring gains, despite facing challenges from inventory devaluation and industry destocking pressures [1][2] - The recovery of refining product margins is slow, with expectations for improvement in the polyester supply chain in the medium to long term as oil prices stabilize and supply dynamics improve [3][5] - The company is accelerating its layout in high-end chemical new materials, with plans for significant production increases in the coming years, reflecting confidence from the controlling shareholder [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 57.05 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.05 billion RMB, down 4.1% year-on-year [1] - The revenue from refining products, PTA, and new materials was 28.1 billion RMB, 18.0 billion RMB, and 9.3 billion RMB respectively, with year-on-year changes of +7%, -6%, and -5% [2] - The average selling prices for these products decreased by 3% to 17% year-on-year, indicating pressure on margins [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders has been revised down to 8.5 billion RMB, 10.8 billion RMB, and 11.9 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 10% and 5% for the following years [5] - The target price has been set at 17.55 RMB, based on a PE ratio of 14.5x for 2025, down from a previous target of 19.43 RMB [5][9]

除了供需失衡，运营成本的大幅上升也让炼油企业不堪重负。高昂的能源价格以及不断攀升的碳 税，使得企业的运营成本显著增加。维多公司投资总监Jay Gleacher指出，尽管炼油毛利率尚未恶化到 极点，但运营成本居高不下，已成为悬在炼油厂头上的"达摩克利斯之剑"。伍德麦肯兹分析师认为，过 高的运营成本，对炼油厂未来盈利能力和脱碳投资构成重大风险，尤其在欧洲，碳税征收大幅增加了炼 油厂运营成本。预计到2035年，欧洲的碳价格将涨至全球平均水平三倍，部分炼油厂将丧失经济可行 性。 多重压力下，欧洲部分炼油厂已难以为继。到目前为止，欧洲已宣布关闭50万桶/日的炼油产能。 2024年，意大利埃尼公司旗下的利沃诺炼油厂停止原油加工；今年第二季度，英国的格兰杰默斯炼油厂 也将关闭。此外，壳牌旗下的莱茵炼油厂和英国石油旗下的盖尔森基兴炼油厂，预计今年也将面临产能 缩减。 转型机遇悄然显现 近年来，欧洲炼油行业正经历前所未有的挑战。在需求疲软、产能过剩和成本攀升的多重压力下， 行业洗牌已成定局。伍德麦肯兹研究显示，未来十年，全球410家炼油厂中有101家炼油厂或将关闭，占 全球产能的21%，其中欧洲将成为这场变革的主战场。在这场生 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 19.43 [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a slight increase in net profit for the year, with total revenue of RMB 236.4 billion, up 1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 7.04 billion, up 2% year-on-year [1][5]. - The fourth quarter performance met expectations, with revenue of RMB 58.54 billion and net profit of RMB 1.94 billion, showing significant quarter-on-quarter growth [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from new project contributions and a gradual recovery in the petrochemical and polyester industry chains [2][4]. Financial Performance - The refining business revenue decreased by 10% year-on-year to RMB 108.1 billion, with a gross margin decline of 5.4 percentage points to 13.1% due to high oil prices and weak industry demand [2]. - The PTA and polyester segments saw revenue changes of -6% and +22% year-on-year, respectively, with gross margins improving by 4.8 and 3.7 percentage points [2]. - The overall gross margin for the company decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 9.9%, while operating expenses increased by 0.2 percentage points to 4.0% [2]. Capacity Expansion and New Projects - The company has made progress in launching new production capacities, including 1.6 million tons per year of high-performance resins and new materials, and 400,000 tons of high-performance specialty industrial yarns [4]. - Additional projects in the Nantong base are expected to be operational in the first half of 2025, focusing on functional films and lithium battery separators [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit is projected to be RMB 9.43 billion, RMB 11.38 billion, and RMB 12.58 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [5]. - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is RMB 1.34, RMB 1.62, and RMB 1.79, respectively [5]. - The target price is based on a 14.5x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting the company's integrated refining advantages [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price in 2025 may show a V-shaped trend. It is under short - and medium - term pressure but is expected to rebound from the bottom in the second half of the year, with an annual fluctuation range of $55 - 80 per barrel [3]. - It is recommended to focus on petrochemical chain targets with low valuations, complete industrial chains, and integrated cost advantages, such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Tongkun Co., Ltd. [81]. - In the face of Trump's tariff policy, there is an increased expectation of economic growth slowdown. Interest - rate bonds' safe - haven demand rises, and the RMB exchange rate is under short - term pressure, but the risk of large - scale unilateral depreciation is controllable. It is short - term bearish on commodities but optimistic about domestic consumption recovery and self - controllable industrial chains [82]. Summary by Directory 1. Oil Price Review and Outlook - **Price Trend**: In March 2025, Brent crude oil fluctuated upward and closed at around $74 per barrel at the end of the month. After Trump's tariff policy was announced in early April, the oil price dropped significantly [3]. - **Supply**: OPEC +'s additional 1.65 million barrels per day production cut agreement will be extended until the end of 2026, while the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cut agreement will end at the end of April. The United States' oil production in the Gulf of Mexico will reach a record 2 million barrels per day [3]. - **Demand**: US refinery processing volume in March was at a low level, and commercial crude oil inventory was repaired but lower than the same period last year. China's crude oil consumption improved in January - February 2025, with a 2.1% year - on - year increase in the processing of above - scale industrial crude oil [3]. - **Prediction**: The oil price is expected to fluctuate between $55 - 80 per barrel in 2025. The supply increase by the end of this year will lead to inventory accumulation and put downward pressure on prices [3][8][9]. 2. Commodities, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rates**: As of April 4, 2025, the yield of the US 10 - year Treasury bond was about 4.01% and declined again. The 10 - year - 2 - year US Treasury bond yield spread has basically ended the inversion, but there was an intensified inversion with the 3 - month Treasury bond in early April [28][34]. - **Exchange Rates**: In March, the US dollar index fluctuated downward, closing at 104.2, a 3.16% decline from the end of the previous month. The offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar, closing at 7.27, a 0.39% appreciation from the end of the previous month [35]. - **Inflation**: In February, the US CPI increased by 2.8% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. The PPI increased by 3.2% year - on - year, with the smallest month - on - month increase since July last year [44]. - **Manufacturing PMI**: In March 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The US 3 - month ISM manufacturing PMI index was 49.0, showing the first contraction this year [3][48]. 3. Polyester Industry Chain - **Profit**: In March, the price of international crude oil continued to decline, driving down the prices of industrial chain products. The ethylene cracking spread from naphtha was $162 per ton, a $3 per ton decline from the previous month. The profit of the PX - PTA - polyester filament full industrial chain was about - 136 yuan per ton, a 39 - yuan per ton decrease from the previous month [53]. - **Supply and Demand**: The terminal textile and clothing orders were less than expected, and the inventory of polyester filament enterprises increased. The PTA industry was still in a loss state, and only leading or integrated enterprises could maintain positive cash flow [59][68]. - **Export**: From January to February 2025, the export of polyester filament increased, while the export of textile and clothing decreased [73]. 4. Conclusion and Investment Suggestions - **Petrochemical Enterprises**: Optimistic about petrochemical enterprises with low valuations, complete industrial chains, and integrated cost advantages, such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Tongkun Co., Ltd. [81]. - **Asset Allocation**: In terms of interest - rate bonds, the demand for safe - haven assets increases. In terms of commodities, short - term bearish due to the trade war, but the domestic petrochemical industry chain has cost - competitive advantages. In terms of equities, optimistic about domestic consumption recovery and self - controllable industrial chains [82].