生意社01月04日讯 1月4日中石化华南公司二甲苯月初挂牌价格上调100-150元/吨：广州石化异构执行5800元/吨，茂名石化 异构执行5800元/吨，中科炼化异构执行5800元/吨。 PriceSeek评析 混二甲苯，多空评分：1.5 文章报道中石化华南公司上调二甲苯挂牌价格100-150元/吨至5800元/吨，表明现货市场供应紧张和需求 强劲，利好现货价格。结合相关PX期货(对二甲苯)数据，如合约2609结算价7190元/吨，该消息可能提 振期货市场多头情绪，推动价格上行趋势。 2、指定周期的平均结算价 【大宗商品公式定价原理】生意社基准价是基于价格大数据与生意社价格模型产生的交易指导价，又称 生意社价格。可用于确定以下两种需求的交易结算价： 1、指定日期的结算价 定价公式：结算价=生意社基准价×K＋C K：调整系数，包括账期成本等因素。 文章报道中石化华南公司上调二甲苯挂牌价格100-150元/吨至5800元/吨，表明现货市场供应紧张和需求 强劲，利好现货价格。结合相关PX期货(对二甲苯)数据，如合约2609结算价7190元/吨，该消息可能提 振期货市场多头情绪，推动价格上行趋势。 【大宗商品公式定价 ...

知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 近一年中国二甲苯进口情况统计图 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国二甲苯行业发展动态及投资机会分析报告》 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年11月中国二甲苯进口数量为82万吨，同比下降16.5%，进口金额为6.61 亿美元，同比下降19.5%。 ...

华鑫证券近日发布基础化工行业研究：截至2025-12-26收盘，布伦特原油价格为60.64美元/桶，相较上 周+0.28%；WTI原油价格为56.74美元/桶，相较上周+0.39%。预计2025年国际油价中枢值将维持在65美 金。鉴于当前国际局势不确定性和对油价下降的预期，我们看好具有高股息特征，同时受益原材料降价 的中国石化等。 来源：中国能源网 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 电池级碳酸锂、工业级碳酸锂等涨幅居前，硫磺、液氯等跌幅较大 本周涨幅较大的产品：电池级碳酸锂（四川99.5%min，10.79%），工业级碳酸锂（四川99.0%min， 10.78%），PTA（华东，8.82%），二甲苯（东南亚FOB韩国，7.43%），PX（CFR东南亚，7.26%）， 丁二烯（东南亚CFR，6.83%），天然气（NYMEX天然气(期货)，5.42%），对硝基氯化苯（安徽地 区，4.65%），PET切片（华东，4.17%），涤纶短纤（1.4D*38mm华东，3.35%）。 本周跌幅较大的产品：纯吡啶（华东地区，-2.67%），电石（华东地区，-3.17%），焦炭（山西市场价 格，-3.72%），LLDPE（余姚市场 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, Juhua, Yangnong Chemical, CNOOC, Tongkun, Daotong Technology, and others [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in battery-grade lithium carbonate (up 10.79%) and industrial-grade lithium carbonate (up 10.78%), while sulfur and liquid chlorine experienced notable declines [4][7]. - It suggests focusing on investment opportunities in areas such as import substitution, pure domestic demand, and high dividend stocks, particularly in light of the current geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices [6][18]. - The overall chemical industry remains under pressure, with mixed performance across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand, although some sectors like lubricants are performing better than expected [21]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report recommends paying attention to the glyphosate industry, which is showing signs of recovery with decreasing inventory and rising prices, suggesting potential investment in companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical [21]. - It also emphasizes selecting stocks with strong competitive positions and growth potential, particularly in the lubricant additive sector and coal-to-olefins industry [21]. - The report notes that domestic demand for chemical fertilizers and certain pesticide sub-products remains robust, with companies like Hualu Hengsheng and China Heartlink Fertilizer being highlighted for investment [21]. Price Trends of Chemical Products - The report details recent price movements, with significant increases in battery-grade lithium carbonate and PTA, while products like sulfur and liquid chlorine saw declines [4][5][19]. - It mentions that the international oil price is expected to stabilize around $65 per barrel, which could benefit companies with high dividend yields and those that are sensitive to raw material cost reductions [6][18]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on oil prices, particularly the situation in Venezuela and the EU's sanctions on Russia, which have contributed to recent price fluctuations [22][23]. - It highlights the weak trading atmosphere in the coal market, with prices declining due to limited demand and cautious market sentiment [29][30]. - The report notes that the polypropylene market is experiencing downward pressure due to weak demand and increased supply, while the PTA market is expected to remain strong due to ongoing inventory reduction [31][35].

【交易策略】 预计PX震荡运行，PTA震荡运行，PR震荡运行。 | | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/4 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/12/3 | 美元/桶 | 58.95 | 58.64 | 0.53% | | | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/12/3 | 美元/桶 | 62.67 | 62.45 | 0.35% | | 上 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/12/3 | 美元/吨 | 562.00 | 567.25 | -0.93% | | 游 | | | | 706.00 | 709.50 | | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/12/3 | | 美元/吨 | | | -0.49% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/12/3 | 美元/吨 | 848.00 | 849.67 | -0. ...

Core Viewpoint - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights a decline in China's paraxylene imports in October 2025, indicating potential challenges in the industry and investment opportunities in the coming years [1]. Import Data Summary - In October 2025, China's paraxylene import volume was 830,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 4.1% [1]. - The import value for the same period was $68.9 million, which reflects a year-on-year decline of 10.6% [1]. Industry Insights - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services for investment decisions [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given reports 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will experience narrow - range fluctuations [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On November 11, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $61.04 per barrel, up 1.51% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $65.16 per barrel, up 1.72%. The spot price of naphtha in CFR Japan on November 10 was $582.25 per ton, up 0.09%. The spot price of isomeric xylene in FOB South Korea on November 11 was $698.50 per ton, down 0.29%. The spot price of p - xylene (PX) in CFR China's main port on November 10 was $828.33 per ton, up 0.61% [1] - **PTA**: On November 11, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,648 yuan per ton, down 1.19%; the settlement price was 4,678 yuan per ton, up 0.13%. The spot price of domestic PTA was 4,600 yuan per ton, up 0.11%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,604 yuan per ton, up 0.22%, and the external price index was $620 per ton, up 0.32% [1] - **PX**: On November 11, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,756 yuan per ton, down 1.40%; the settlement price was 6,796 yuan per ton, down 0.03%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,556 yuan per ton, unchanged. The PXN spread on November 10 was $246.08 per ton, up 1.86%, and the PX - MX spread was $129.83 per ton, up 5.70% [1] - **PR**: On November 11, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,696 yuan per ton, down 1.18%; the settlement price was 5,738 yuan per ton, up 0.10%. The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,760 yuan per ton, up 0.17%, and in the South China market was 5,800 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [1] - **Downstream**: On November 11, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,550 yuan per ton, up 0.29%; the index of polyester POY was 6,850 yuan per ton, unchanged; the index of polyester FDY68D was 7,100 yuan per ton, up 0.71%; the index of polyester FDY150D was 6,900 yuan per ton, up 0.73%; the index of polyester staple fiber was 6,330 yuan per ton, down 0.08%; the index of polyester chips was 5,630 yuan per ton, up 0.18%; the index of bottle - grade chips was 5,760 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [2] Operating Conditions - On November 11, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 88.03%, unchanged; the PTA factory load rate in the PTA industry chain was 76.31%, unchanged; the polyester factory load rate was 89.70%, unchanged; the bottle chip factory load rate was 75.16%, down 1.39%; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.28%, unchanged [1] Production and Sales - On November 11, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 54.35%, up 4.35 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 41.02%, down 25.58 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 50.16%, down 32.69 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 1.1 - million - ton PTA device of South China Ineos is under maintenance, and the restart date is to be determined. A 1 - million - ton PTA device of Southwest Sichuan Energy Investment is scheduled for maintenance on November 7 [2] PX Analysis - **Important Information**: The news that the U.S. Senate passed the first - stage vote of the agreement to end the shutdown improved market sentiment, and the oil market was boosted. The CFR China price of PX on November 11 was $821 per ton. The international oil price fluctuated strongly, squeezing the cost - side support of PX. Domestic PX devices were operating relatively stably, but there was an expectation of slowdown in demand, and the market was dominated by a wait - and - see attitude [2] - **Long - Short Logic**: There was no unexpected news, and the fundamentals were operating steadily. The PX2601 contract closed at 6,756 yuan per ton (-0.62%), with an intraday trading volume of 282,000 lots. Relying on the current abundant MX supply, domestic factories could maintain the PX load effectively. The PX operating rate remained at a high level this year. The recent market was significantly disturbed by rumors. The 8.7 - million - ton PTA device put into production this year promoted the annual destocking of PX, which supported PX significantly. As the industry entered the off - season, the upstream would be more sensitive to the demand - side feedback [2] PTA Analysis - **Long - Short Logic**: The cost side remained stable. The TA2601 contract closed at 4,648 yuan per ton (-0.51%), with an intraday trading volume of 628,800 lots. The crude oil and PX markets showed weak upward momentum. The PTA spot was abundant, the downstream rigid demand was stable, the spot market fluctuated narrowly, and the basis was relatively stable. Many PTA device maintenance plans were carried out as scheduled, and the industry had long expected them. Due to the continuous low processing fees, the impact of device maintenance would be aggravated, but there was no unexpected reduction in supply. The domestic demand market was gradually weakening, but the recent inquiry atmosphere for foreign trade orders was active, and subsequent orders would increase. In the short term, the overall downstream demand was acceptable [2] PR Analysis - **Important Information**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was between 5,710 - 5,820 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The PTA and bottle chip futures fluctuated narrowly. The supply - side quotations were mostly stable, and the downstream purchasing willingness was cautious, with general market trading atmosphere [2] - **Long - Short Logic**: Following the cost trend, the PR2601 contract closed at 5,696 yuan per ton (-0.63%), with an intraday trading volume of 31,000 lots. The supply - side operating rate was adjusted slightly, and the overall market supply was relatively sufficient. The downstream terminal purchasing enthusiasm was not high, and the attitude was cautious [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for investment in sectors focusing on domestic demand, high dividends, and import substitution [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the chemical industry is currently experiencing a mixed performance, with some products seeing significant price increases while others are declining. It emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors like glyphosate, fertilizers, and high-dividend assets amid a backdrop of fluctuating oil prices and uncertain international conditions [6][23]. - The report suggests that the international oil price is expected to stabilize around $65 per barrel, influenced by rising U.S. oil inventories and geopolitical uncertainties [6][24]. Summary by Relevant Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report recommends focusing on sectors likely to enter a growth cycle, such as glyphosate, which is showing signs of recovery with decreasing inventory and rising prices [23]. - It also suggests selecting stocks with strong competitive positions and growth potential, particularly in the lubricant additives and coal-to-olefins sectors [23]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic demand in the chemical fertilizer sector, particularly nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, which are expected to maintain stable demand [23]. Price Movements of Chemical Products - Significant price increases were noted for natural gas (up 30.25%), nitric acid (up 20.59%), and liquid chlorine (up 10.27%) [20][21]. - Conversely, products like ammonium chloride and butadiene experienced substantial declines, with drops of -13.33% and -12.66% respectively [20][21]. Market Trends and Analysis - The report indicates that the chemical industry is currently in a weak overall performance phase, with mixed results across different sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [21][23]. - It emphasizes the need to pay attention to high-quality assets in the oil sector, particularly state-owned enterprises like Sinopec, which are expected to benefit from lower raw material costs due to declining oil prices [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will fluctuate within a narrow range (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream** - On November 7, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $59.75 per barrel, up 0.54%; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $63.63 per barrel, up 0.39%. The spot price of naphtha in CFR Japan was $581.75 per ton, up 1.04% [1] - The spot price of isomeric xylene in FOB South Korea was $693.50 per ton, up 0.14%; the spot price of p - xylene (PX) in CFR China's main port was $825.00 per ton, down 0.12% [1] - **PTA** - On November 7, 2025, the closing price of CZCE TA's main contract was 4,664 yuan per ton, down 0.51%; the settlement price was 4,652 yuan per ton, up 0.69% [1] - The closing price of CZCE TA's near - month contract was 4,616 yuan per ton, down 0.30%; the settlement price was 4,608 yuan per ton, up 1.54% [1] - The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,574 yuan per ton, up 0.73%; the CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,572 yuan per ton, up 0.70%; the CCFEI price index of foreign PTA was $620.00 per ton, up 0.98% [1] - The near - far month spread was - 44 yuan per ton, an increase of 38 yuan; the basis was - 92 yuan per ton, an increase of 56 yuan [1] - **PX** - On November 7, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PX's main contract was 6,780 yuan per ton, down 0.59%; the settlement price was 6,758 yuan per ton, up 0.99% [1] - The closing price of CZCE PX's near - month contract was 6,786 yuan per ton, up 0.98%; the settlement price was 6,786 yuan per ton, up 0.98% [1] - The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,502 yuan per ton, up 0.45%; the spot price of p - xylene in CFR Taiwan, China was $826.00 per ton, down 0.12%; the spot price of p - xylene in FOB South Korea was $801.00 per ton, down 0.12% [1] - The PXN spread was $243.25 per ton, down 2.80%; the PX - MX spread was $131.50 per ton, down 1.50%; the basis was - 278 yuan per ton, an increase of 69 yuan [1] - **PR** - On November 7, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PR's main contract was 5,726 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; the settlement price was 5,724 yuan per ton, up 0.92% [1] - The closing price of CZCE PR's near - month contract was 5,740 yuan per ton, up 0.53%; the settlement price was 5,740 yuan per ton, up 0.53% [1] - The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,740 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; the market price in the South China market was 5,790 yuan per ton, up 0.70% [1] - The basis in the East China market was 14 yuan per ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the basis in the South China market was 64 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan [1] - **Downstream** - On November 7, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,525 yuan per ton, up 0.29%; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 6,850 yuan per ton, up 0.37% [2] - The CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 7,050 yuan per ton, up 1.44%; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 6,850 yuan per ton, up 2.24% [2] - The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,330 yuan per ton, up 0.08%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,620 yuan per ton, up 0.54%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,740 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [2] Operating Conditions - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 88.03%, unchanged; the load rate of PTA factories in the PTA industry chain was 77.42%, unchanged; the load rate of polyester factories was 89.70%, unchanged; the load rate of bottle chip factories was 76.55%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.28%, unchanged [1] - The sales rate of polyester filament was 48.28%, down 21.72 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 46.68%, down 23.29 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 53.72%, down 89.32 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 1.1 - million - ton PTA device of South China Ineos was under maintenance, and the restart date was to be determined. A 1 - million - ton PTA device of Southwest Sichuan Energy Investment was planned to be maintained at the end of this week, possibly shut down for 45 days, which remained to be watched [2] Market Analysis - **PX** - This week, the PX price rebounded after a decline, with the absolute price up 0.4% week - on - week to $823 per ton CFR on Friday. The weekly average price remained strong, up 0.2% week - on - week to $820 per ton CFR. The international oil price continued to be weak, and cost - side support was insufficient. The domestic PX supply remained stable, awaiting the realization of the expected changes in PTA devices [2] - Due to the release of sentiment from the news, the PX2601 contract closed at 6,780 yuan per ton (up 1.32%), with an intraday trading volume of 362,800 lots. Relying on the current abundant MX supply, the PX load could still be effectively maintained even if there were fluctuations in the disproportionation or reform operations of domestic factories such as LIDONG and Hengli. The PX operating rate remained at a high level this year. Recently, market disturbances caused by rumors were obvious. Since 8.7 million tons of PTA devices were put into operation this year, it promoted the annual destocking of PX, which had an obvious supporting effect on PX. As the industry entered the off - season, the upstream would be more sensitive to demand - side feedback [2] - **PTA** - Due to device changes, the TA2601 contract closed at 4,664 yuan per ton (up 0.95%), with an intraday trading volume of 926,200 lots. On Thursday, the sales rate of polyester filament at the end of the session was around 228.61%, which was positive for the PTA market on Friday, and cost support remained. The PTA market rose slightly. The spot supply was sufficient, and the spot basis fluctuated within a limited range. Recently, many PTA device maintenance operations were carried out as planned, and the industry had long anticipated this. However, due to the continuously low processing fee, the impact of device maintenance would be aggravated, and there was actually no unexpected reduction. The domestic demand market was running moderately and weakly, but recently, the inquiry atmosphere for foreign trade orders was active, and subsequent orders would increase. In the short term, the overall downstream demand was acceptable. Generally speaking, the supply side could not eliminate the pressure only by short - term maintenance or shutdown [2] - **PR** - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5,710 - 5,810 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The PTA and bottle chip futures showed a warm - biased shock. Most offers on the supply side were raised, and the downstream purchasing willingness was average, mainly for replenishing stocks on a just - in - time basis [2] - Following the cost movement, the PR2601 contract closed at 5,726 yuan per ton (up 0.95%), with an intraday trading volume of 36,100 lots. The supply - side operation was temporarily stable, and the overall market supply was relatively sufficient. The downstream end - users were cautious, mainly following up with small just - in - time orders [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report expects PX, PTA, and PR to have a moderately strong and volatile trend [2]. Core Viewpoints - The prices of PX, PTA, and PR are expected to show a moderately strong and volatile trend. The PX market is in a tight - balance situation, with stable supply and limited demand - side drive. The PTA market is affected by cost and supply - side factors, and the supply pressure cannot be eliminated by short - term maintenance. The PR market follows cost trends, with sufficient supply and cautious downstream procurement [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream Prices**: On November 6, 2025, the futures settlement prices of WTI and Brent crude oil decreased by 0.29% and 0.22% respectively. The spot price of naphtha decreased by 0.30%, while the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) increased by 0.65% [1]. - **PTA Prices**: The CZCE TA main - contract closing price increased by 1.91%, and the spot price of domestic PTA increased by 0.75%. The CCFEI price indices of PTA both increased [1]. - **PX Prices**: The CZCE PX main - contract closing price increased by 2.56%, and the spot price of domestic PX remained unchanged. The PXN and PX - MX spreads increased by 4.93% and 4.28% respectively [1]. - **PR Prices**: The CZCE PR main - contract closing price increased by 1.31%, and the market prices of polyester bottle - chips in the East and South China markets increased by 0.70% and 0.35% respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The CCFEI price indices of most downstream products remained unchanged, except for the polyester bottle - chip and polyester slice price indices, which increased, and the polyester short - fiber price index decreased by 0.32% [2]. Operating Conditions - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain increased by 1.82%. The load rates of PTA factories decreased by 0.42%, while those of polyester factories and bottle - chip factories increased by 0.14% and 0.92% respectively. The load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [1]. - **Sales Rates**: The sales rates of polyester filament, polyester short - fiber, and polyester slice increased by 17.41%, 31.62%, and 96.76% respectively [1]. Device Information - A 1.1 - million - ton PTA device in South China is under maintenance, and the restart date is undetermined. A 1 - million - ton PTA device in Southwest China is planned to be maintained this weekend and may be shut down for 45 days [2]. Market Analysis - **PX**: The international crude oil market is volatile, and the domestic PX devices operate stably. Although some PX factories' reforming devices are under maintenance, the market supply remains stable. The PX benefit is expected to be volatile and stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance in the fourth quarter [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA price is pushed up by the cost of PX. Although there are many device maintenance plans, the supply is still sufficient. The domestic demand market is gradually weakening, but the foreign trade orders are increasing, and the short - term downstream demand is acceptable [2]. - **PR**: The polyester bottle - chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is moderately strong and volatile. The supply is sufficient, and the downstream procurement is cautious [2].