行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 08 月 21 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 20日PTA主力期货 TA2601收盘价4778元/吨，上涨 32元/吨，幅度 0.67%， 结算价 4742 元/吨，日增仓 6367 手。淘汰落后石化产能的传闻以及韩国可能 减产石脑油的传闻提振 PTA 市场，盘中原油上涨，利好市场心态 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - PX market is strong, and its cost supports PTA. PTA market shows a slight increase with a minor fluctuation in the spot basis. PTA processing fees are in the low - range, and new device production expectations on the supply side and lackluster demand in the off - season make it difficult for unplanned device maintenance to boost prices. PTA will move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor [2]. - Polyester bottle - chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions remains stable. The supply side of bottle - chips has low - level operations, with sufficient market spot supply. Downstream terminal procurement enthusiasm is average, and market sentiment is cautious [2]. - Without unexpected good news, it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream** - On August 18, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $63.42 per barrel, up 0.99% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $66.60 per barrel, up 1.14%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $570.75 per ton, down 0.31%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $680.00 per ton, down 0.66% [1]. - **PTA Futures and Spot Prices** - On August 18, 2025, the closing price of CZCE TA main contract was 4746 yuan per ton, up 0.64%; the settlement price was 4726 yuan per ton, up 0.38%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 4696 yuan per ton, up 0.43%; the settlement price was 4680 yuan per ton, up 0.17%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4659 yuan per ton, up 0.11% [1]. - **PX Futures and Spot Prices** - On August 18, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PX main contract was 6760 yuan per ton, up 1.08%; the settlement price was 6702 yuan per ton, up 0.30%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 6804 yuan per ton, up 0.71%; the settlement price was 6756 yuan per ton, up 0.24%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6581 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - **PR Futures and Spot Prices** - On August 18, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PR main contract was 5928 yuan per ton, up 0.54%; the settlement price was 5896 yuan per ton, up 0.07%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 5856 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; the settlement price was 5844 yuan per ton, down 0.03%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5920 yuan per ton, up 0.34%; in the South China market, it was 5940 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [1]. - **Downstream Product Prices** - On August 18, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6475 yuan per ton, up 0.08%; the index of bottle - grade chips was 5920 yuan per ton, up 0.34%. Other downstream product price indices remained unchanged [2]. Operating Conditions - On August 18, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 80.38%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA plants was 77.67%, unchanged; the load rate of polyester plants was 87.30%, up 0.42%; the load rate of bottle - chip plants was 71.93%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 57.80%, unchanged [1]. Production and Sales - On August 18, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament was 45.74%, up 9.42%; the sales - to - production ratio of polyester staple fiber was 40.41%, down 9.21%; the sales - to - production ratio of polyester chips was 75.00%, up 21.43% [1]. Device Information - Ningbo Taihua's 1.5 - million - ton PTA device started maintenance on August 7, expected to last 2 months. Yisheng Dalian's 2.25 - million - ton PTA device started maintenance on August 8, expected to last 1 month. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is planned for technical transformation from August 15 for 3 months. Two 800,000 - ton PX devices in South China will be restarted soon [2]. Important News - The US - Russia meeting ended on Friday. Although no substantial agreement was reached, the cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine is expected to accelerate, and the expectation of US sanctions against Russia has relaxed, reducing geopolitical risks. The PX supply is recovering, and the current PX inventory is at a historical low, with strong bottom support [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Oil prices are fluctuating around the US - Russia meeting, with a slight rebound due to oversold recovery, but pressured by high South American oil production. PX supply has recovered with new plant launches and restarts, and it has strong bottom support due to low inventory. Its future profitability depends on unexpected factors. PX is in an advantageous position in the industry chain, and social inventory is decreasing due to PTA demand, but PTA downstream开工 has a strong downward expectation [2]. - PTA supply has a mix of restarts and maintenance. Spot prices rose slightly with the market, but with low processing fees, new plant launch expectations on the supply - side and weak demand in the off - season, it's hard to have a trend - upward market. It will move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor [2]. - Polyester bottle - chip prices are stable. Supply - side starts are at a low level, with local shortages of spot goods. Downstream procurement is cautious [2]. - Without unexpected positive news, PX, PTA, and PR are expected to operate in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On August 11, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $63.96/barrel (up 0.13%), Brent at $66.63/barrel (up 0.06%), naphtha at $568/ton (down 0.44%), isomeric xylene at $690.5/ton (up 0.15%), and PX CFR China Main Port at $833.67/ton (up 0.24%) [1]. - **PTA**: On August 12, 2025, CZCE TA main contract closed at 4,726 yuan/ton (up 0.42%), settled at 4,718 yuan/ton (up 0.21%); spot PTA in China was 4,698 yuan/ton (up 0.58%); CCFEI PTA domestic index was 4,705 yuan/ton (up 0.21%), and the foreign index was $625/ton (up 0.48%) on August 11 [1]. - **PX**: On August 12, 2025, CZCE PX main contract closed at 6,832 yuan/ton (up 0.80%), settled at 6,808 yuan/ton (up 0.56%); domestic PX spot was 6,708 yuan/ton (up 0.04%) on August 11 [1]. - **PR**: On August 12, 2025, CZCE PR main contract closed at 5,964 yuan/ton (up 0.51%), settled at 5,954 yuan/ton (up 0.27%); polyester bottle - chip in East China and South China markets remained stable at 5,910 yuan/ton and 5,950 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream**: On August 12, 2025, CCFEI polyester fiber DTY index was 8,625 yuan/ton (up 0.29%), POY remained stable at 7,125 yuan/ton, FDY68D was 7,100 yuan/ton (up 0.71%), FDY150D was 7,100 yuan/ton (up 0.71%), short - fiber was 6,495 yuan/ton (up 0.23%), polyester chip was 5,880 yuan/ton (up 0.17%), and bottle - grade chip remained stable at 5,910 yuan/ton [2]. Spread Information - On August 11, 2025, PXN spread was $265.67/ton (up 1.72%), PX - MX spread was $143.17/ton (up 0.70%) [1]. - On August 12, 2025, PTA near - far month spread remained at - 18 yuan/ton, PTA basis was - 21 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), PX basis was - 124 yuan/ton (down 51 yuan), PR basis in East China was - 54 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and in South China was - 14 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan) [1] Operation Rate and Sales Rate - On August 12, 2025, PX operation rate was 78.11%, PTA factory load rate was 76.56%, polyester factory load rate was 86.88% (down 0.21%), bottle - chip factory load rate was 71.93%, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms load rate was 57.83% [1]. - On August 12, 2025, polyester filament sales rate was 42% (down 1%), polyester short - fiber sales rate was 58% (up 7%), and polyester chip sales rate was 115% (up 18%) [1] Device Information - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United was under maintenance from June 28 and restarted on August 10 [2]. Trading Strategy - After price corrections, the TA2509 contract closed at 4,726 yuan/ton (up 0.38%) with a trading volume of 367,400 lots; the PX2509 contract closed at 6,832 yuan/ton (up 0.92%) with a trading volume of 68,800 lots; the PR2509 contract closed at 5,964 yuan/ton (up 0.44%) with a trading volume of 17,000 lots. Without unexpected positive news, PX, PTA, and PR are expected to operate in a volatile manner (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX supply has recovered, with its inventory at a historical low and strong bottom support. Whether its profitability can continue to improve depends on unexpected factors. Currently, it is in an advantageous position in the industry chain, and social inventory is decreasing. However, due to the off - season of polyester consumption and a significant decline in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates [2]. - PTA is expected to move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor. Although there are device maintenance expectations, new device production expectations on the supply side and lackluster demand during the off - season limit price increases. The market had a short - term upward trend but has since fallen back, and supply remains sufficient [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market has a weak trading atmosphere. Supply - side quotes vary, and downstream buying enthusiasm has declined. The supply - side operating rate remains low, some specifications are in short supply, and downstream terminals are mainly consuming previous inventories [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner. Without more unexpected positive news, the TA2509, PX2509, and PR2509 contracts closed at 4706 yuan/ton (0.38%), 6778 yuan/ton (0.44%), and 5934 yuan/ton (0.41%) respectively, with trading volumes of 44.47 million hands, 7.41 million hands, and 1.97 million hands [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Crude Oil**: On August 11, 2025, the futures settlement prices (continuous) of WTI and Brent crude oil were $63.96/barrel and $66.63/barrel respectively, up 0.13% and 0.06% from the previous values [1]. - **Upstream Products**: The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $568/ton, down 0.44%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $690/ton, up 0.07%; the spot price of p - xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) was $835/ton, up 0.40% [1]. - **PTA**: The closing price and settlement price of the CZCE TA main contract were 4706 yuan/ton and 4708 yuan/ton respectively, up 0.47% and 0.43%; the closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were 4706 yuan/ton and 4690 yuan/ton respectively, up 0.38% and 0.30%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4671 yuan/ton, down 0.36%. The CCFEI price index of domestic and foreign PTA was 4695 yuan/ton (up 0.54%) and $622/ton (down 0.96%) respectively [1]. - **PX**: The closing price and settlement price of the CZCE PX main contract were 6778 yuan/ton and 6770 yuan/ton respectively, up 0.77% and 0.33%; the closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were 6770 yuan/ton, up 0.33%. The domestic PX spot price remained unchanged at 6705 yuan/ton [1]. - **PR**: The closing price and settlement price of the CZCE PR main contract were 5934 yuan/ton and 5938 yuan/ton respectively, up 0.61% and 0.47%; the closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were 5922 yuan/ton, up 0.44%. The mainstream market prices of polyester bottle - chips in East China and South China were 5910 yuan/ton (unchanged) and 5950 yuan/ton (up 0.17%) respectively [1]. - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price indices of polyester staple fiber, polyester chips, and bottle - grade chips remained unchanged at 6480 yuan/ton, 5870 yuan/ton, and 5910 yuan/ton respectively. The CCFEI price indices of polyester DTY, POY, FDY68D, and FDY150D were 8600 yuan/ton (up 0.58%), 7125 yuan/ton (up 0.35%), 7050 yuan/ton (up 1.44%), and 7050 yuan/ton (up 1.44%) respectively [2]. 2. Spread Changes - **PXN Spread**: On August 11, 2025, it was $267/ton, up 2.23% [1]. - **PX - MX Spread**: It was $145/ton, up 1.99% [1]. - **Near - far Month Spread of PTA**: It was - 18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis of PTA**: It was - 11 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis of PX**: It was - 73 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis of Polyester Bottle - chips in East and South China**: They were - 24 yuan/ton and 16 yuan/ton respectively, decreasing by 36 yuan/ton and 26 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Operating Conditions - **PX Operating Rate**: It remained unchanged at 78.11% [1]. - **PTA Factory Load Rate**: It increased by 2.06 percentage points to 76.56% [1]. - **Polyester Factory Load Rate**: It remained unchanged at 87.09% [1]. - **Bottle - chip Factory Load Rate**: It remained unchanged at 71.93% [1]. - **Jiangsu and Zhejiang Loom Load Rate**: It remained unchanged at 57.83% [1]. 4. Production and Sales Rates - **Polyester Filament Production and Sales Rate**: It increased by 2 percentage points to 43% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber Production and Sales Rate**: It decreased by 6 percentage points to 51% [1]. - **Polyester Chip Production and Sales Rate**: It increased by 8 percentage points to 97% [1]. 5. Device Information - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United was shut down for maintenance on June 28 and restarted on August 10 [2]. 6. Important News - The supply - demand situation of international crude oil is weak, with high crude oil production in Brazil and Iran. The meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15 will affect oil prices. With the expected progress, geopolitical risks have declined, putting pressure on oil prices. Multiple reforming devices have been put into operation recently, and some PX devices have restarted one after another, leading to a recovery in PX supply [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The international crude oil price dropped due to the unexpectedly poor US non - farm payroll data and OPEC+ agreeing to increase production in September. PTA has new device commissioning plans in the third quarter, which is misaligned with PX in terms of time. PX is currently in an advantageous position in the industrial chain with low inventory, but its future performance depends on additional unexpected factors. The PTA market is weak with new device commissioning expectations and weak demand during the off - season. Polyester bottle - chip supply is sufficient, and the market transaction is okay. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate weakly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On August 4, 2025, the prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, naphtha, xylene, and PX all decreased compared to the previous values, with decline rates ranging from - 0.91% to - 3.19%. The PXN spread increased by 4.79% to 253.38 dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread increased by 3.97% to 139.50 dollars/ton [1] - **PTA**: The prices of CZCE TA contracts and PTA spot prices all decreased on August 4, 2025, with decline rates ranging from - 0.84% to - 1.76%. The near - far month spread changed from 10 yuan/ton to - 28 yuan/ton, and the basis increased from - 4 yuan/ton to 2 yuan/ton [1] - **PX**: The prices of CZCE PX contracts mostly decreased on August 4, 2025, with decline rates around - 0.85% to - 0.96%. The domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged, and the basis increased from 69 yuan/ton to 127 yuan/ton [1] - **PR**: The CZCE PR 2509 contract closed at 5924 yuan/ton with a 0.10% increase. The prices of polyester bottle - chip in the East and South China markets decreased by - 0.83% to - 0.84%. The basis in the East and South China markets decreased by 56 yuan/ton [1] - **Downstream**: On August 4, 2025, the prices of most CCFEI polyester fiber price indices remained unchanged, while the prices of polyester short - fiber, polyester chip, and bottle - grade chip decreased, with decline rates ranging from - 0.51% to - 0.84% [2] Operating Conditions - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industrial chain increased by 0.82 percentage points to 78.11% on August 4, 2025. The PTA factory load rate increased by 2.75 percentage points to 76.81%, while the load rates of polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [1] Production and Sales - On August 4, 2025, the production - sales ratio of polyester filament increased by 7 percentage points to 32%, the production - sales ratio of polyester short - fiber decreased by 7 percentage points to 49%, and the production - sales ratio of polyester chip increased by 3 percentage points to 63% [1] Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China started maintenance on August 1, 2025, for about two weeks [2] Important News - The US non - farm payroll data was unexpectedly poor, and OPEC+ agreed to increase production in September, leading to a decline in international crude oil prices. PTA will commission new devices in the third quarter, misaligned with PX. PX inventory is at a historical low, and its future performance depends on additional factors. The PTA market is weak due to new device commissioning expectations and weak demand during the off - season [2] Transaction Strategy - The TA2509 contract closed at 4,698 yuan/ton with a - 1.34% decline, and the trading volume was 505,900 lots. The PX2509 contract closed at 6,754 yuan/ton with a - 1.34% decline, and the trading volume was 98,700 lots. The PR2509 contract closed at 5,924 yuan/ton with a - 0.84% decline, and the trading volume was 29,400 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate weakly [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - PX prices fluctuated and declined this week, with the absolute price down 3.2% week-on-week to $846/ton CFR by Friday, and the weekly average price slightly stronger, up 0.6% week-on-week to $856/ton CFR. PTA has new device commissioning plans in the third quarter, creating a time mismatch with PX. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong bottom support. Whether PX profitability can continue to improve depends on more expected external factors. PX is in an advantageous position in the industrial chain, with social inventory being depleted. However, it is currently the off - season for polyester consumption, and after a significant drop in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream开工 [2]. - The market has already factored in the impact of the maintenance of a 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China, and the spot basis is weak. Crude oil failed to recover Wednesday's losses, the bulk chemical market continued to be weak, and the PTA market declined. Currently, PTA processing fees are in a low - range, and unplanned device maintenance is difficult to boost prices due to new device commissioning expectations on the supply side and lackluster demand in the off - season. In a warming macro - environment, PTA may experience an upward trend, but it is difficult to have a trend - type upward market without fundamental resonance. Currently, PTA supply is sufficient, and attention should be paid to whether the rumors of maintenance of several PTA devices in early August will materialize. Polyester production cuts are currently on hold, and the开工 rate remains relatively stable. The negative feedback from weaving has only reached the polyester segment. From the perspective of industrial chain profits, the strong driving force from the cost side has caused the profit distribution pattern of the industrial chain to tilt towards the raw material segment again. PTA will move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor [2]. - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is 5,900 - 6,020 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The raw materials PTA and bottle chip futures are oscillating at a low level. Most supply - side quotes for bottle chips have been lowered, and the downstream terminal's intention to replenish inventory has improved. Recently, the supply - side operating rate of bottle chips has remained at a low level, and the market supply is sufficient. The downstream terminals are replenishing inventory due to low prices, and the market trading atmosphere may decline [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate weakly. (PX view score: - 1, PTA view score: - 1, PR view score: - 1) [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On August 1, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $67.33/barrel, down 2.79% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $69.67/barrel, down 3.94%; the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $604/ton, down 1.15%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB South Korea) was $711.5/ton, down 1.25% [1]. - **PTA**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,744 yuan/ton, down 1.33%; the settlement price was 4,762 yuan/ton, down 1.65%. The spot price of domestic PTA was 4,751 yuan/ton, down 1.66%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,740 yuan/ton, down 1.78%, and the CCFEI price index of overseas PTA was $641/ton (July 31, 2025), down 0.47% [1]. - **PX**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,812 yuan/ton, down 1.67%; the settlement price was 6,846 yuan/ton, down 1.92%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,881 yuan/ton, down 0.82% [1]. - **PR**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,918 yuan/ton, down 0.94%; the settlement price was 5,934 yuan/ton, down 1.03%. The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,950 yuan/ton, down 0.67%, and in the South China market was 6,000 yuan/ton, down 0.83% [1]. - **Downstream**: On August 1, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,560 yuan/ton, down 0.53%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,880 yuan/ton, down 1.09%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,950 yuan/ton, down 0.67% [2] Operating Conditions - On August 1, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industrial chain was 77.29%, unchanged from the previous value; the PTA industrial chain load rate of PTA plants was 74.06%, down 2.58 percentage points; the PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester plants was 86.15%, down 0.13 percentage points; the PTA industrial chain load rate of bottle - chip plants was 71.93%, unchanged; the PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 57.83%, unchanged [1]. - On August 1, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 25%, down 2 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 56%, up 7 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 60%, down 12 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China started maintenance on August 1 for about 2 weeks [2] Trading Strategy - The TA2509 contract closed at 4,744 yuan/ton (- 2.02%), with an intraday trading volume of 678,200 lots; the PX2509 contract closed at 6,812 yuan/ton (- 2.41%), with an intraday trading volume of 141,700 lots; the PR2509 contract closed at 5,918 yuan/ton (- 1.30%), with an intraday trading volume of 21,800 lots [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international oil price has shown a correction. With no unexpected news in the fundamentals, PX, PTA, and PR are expected to operate weakly (PX view score: -1, PTA view score: -1, PR view score: -1) [2]. - PTA will move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor. The supply of PTA is currently sufficient, and attention should be paid to whether the rumors of maintenance of several PTA plants in early August will be fulfilled [2]. - The polyester production cut is currently on hold, and the operation remains relatively stable. The negative feedback from weaving has only reached the polyester segment so far [2]. - The profit distribution pattern of the industrial chain has once again tilted towards the raw material segment due to the strong driving force of the cost side [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: As of July 31, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $69.26 per barrel, down 1.06%; Brent crude oil was $72.53 per barrel, down 0.97%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $611 per ton, up 0.45%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $725.5 per ton, up 2.26%. The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $857 per ton, down 1.08% [1]. - **PTA**: On July 31, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,808 yuan per ton, down 0.99%; the settlement price was 4,842 yuan per ton, down 0.57%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4,831 yuan per ton, down 0.62%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,826 yuan per ton, down 0.66%; the external price index was $644 per ton, up 0.63% [1]. - **PX**: As of July 31, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,928 yuan per ton, down 0.80%; the settlement price was 6,980 yuan per ton, down 0.14%. The domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged at 6,859 yuan per ton. The PXN spread was $246 per ton, down 4.68%; the PX - MX spread was $131.5 per ton, down 16.15% [1]. - **PR**: On July 31, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,974 yuan per ton, down 0.67%; the settlement price was 5,996 yuan per ton, down 0.66%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,990 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; in the South China market, it was 6,050 yuan per ton, down 0.49% [1]. - **Downstream**: As of July 31, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY 68D and 150D increased by 0.72% to 6,950 yuan per ton; the price index of polyester short - fiber decreased by 0.23% to 6,595 yuan per ton [2]. Operating Conditions - As of July 31, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industrial chain remained unchanged at 77.29%. The load rate of PTA plants was 76.64%, down 2.81 percentage points; the load rate of polyester plants remained unchanged at 86.28%; the load rate of bottle - chip plants remained unchanged at 71.93%; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 57.83%, down 0.92 percentage points [1]. Production and Sales - As of July 31, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 27%, down 83 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 49%, up 6 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 72%, down 17 percentage points [1]. Device Information - The 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United has been under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. The 2 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng Hainan is expected to undergo technological transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. Important Information - EIA data shows that both crude oil and refined oil products in the US have accumulated inventories, but the cooling expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the uncertainty brought by Trump's sanctions on Russia have overshadowed these negative factors, causing oil prices to continue a relatively strong trend [2]. - New PTA devices are scheduled to be put into operation in the third quarter, resulting in a time mismatch with PX. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong support at the bottom. Whether the PX profit can continue to rise depends on whether there are more unexpected supporting factors [2]. - During the off - season of polyester consumption, after the significant decline in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operation [2]. - Although some PTA devices in East China have short - term shutdowns and reduced loads, the impact on production is small, and the boost to the PTA market is limited [2]. - The overall market of bulk chemicals is weak, and the PTA market has declined. The PTA processing fee has entered a low - level range, but unplanned device maintenance is difficult to boost prices due to the expected new device production on the supply side and the lack of improvement in the off - season demand [2].

行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 08 月 1 日 油） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、M ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere of bulk chemicals has weakened, and the PTA market has risen and then fallen. The downstream procurement intention is not high. The supply of PTA is sufficient, and it will move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market has a relatively abundant supply, and the downstream terminal purchases according to rigid demand, with the market negotiation atmosphere improving [2]. - After the short - term emotional release, PX, PTA, and PR are expected to operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - On July 28, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $66.71 per barrel, up 2.38% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $70.04 per barrel, up 2.34% [1]. - The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan was $578.50 per ton, down 0.34%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB South Korea was $708.00 per ton, down 1.73% [1]. - The spot price of PX CFR China Main Port was $851.00 per ton, down 2.52%; the CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4812 yuan per ton, down 2.51% [1]. - The CCFEI price index of PTA outer - market was $651.00 per ton on July 25, up 1.88%; the CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6890 yuan per ton on July 28, down 2.44% [1]. - The CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 6000 yuan per ton on July 28, down 2.12%; the market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 6010 yuan per ton, down 1.15% [1]. Production and Sales Information - On July 28, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 77.29%, unchanged; the PTA factory load rate was 80.59%, unchanged [1]. - The polyester factory load rate was 86.66%, down 0.35%; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 71.93%, unchanged [1]. - The polyester filament sales rate was 29.00%, unchanged; the polyester staple fiber sales rate was 48.00%, down 30.00%; the polyester chip sales rate was 83.00%, down 47.00% [1]. Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 - million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days; Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. Market News - The OPEC+ maintains the production - increase plan, and the impact of the production increase is gradually emerging. Although the peak demand season and the improvement of the macro - sentiment provide support, the oil price shows signs of weakness [2]. - PTA will have new device launches in the third quarter, which is mismatched with PX in time. The current PX inventory is at a historical low, with relatively strong bottom support [2]. - It is currently the off - season for polyester consumption. After the significant decline in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates [2]. - The domestic PX device operates stably, the new production capacity on the demand side has not produced stably, and the game atmosphere in the market has heated up [2]. - The polyester factory actually carried out maintenance in July, and the operating rate decreased significantly compared with June. The macro - impact on the polyester industry chain has weakened, and it has returned to fundamental - driven, with the supply - demand expectation weakening and prices falling across the board [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere of bulk chemical products is strong, and the PTA market has risen. However, the spot market basis has weakened due to the PTA main supplier's shipments and the weakening of the quoted basis. The PTA processing fee has entered a low - range, and new device production expectations on the supply side and the off - season on the demand side make it difficult for unplanned device overhauls to boost prices. The polyester industry chain is driven by fundamentals, with weakening supply - demand expectations leading to a full - line price decline. PTA will move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor [2]. - In the short term, after the release of emotions, the market will generally follow cost fluctuations. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 25, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $65.16 per barrel, down 1.32% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $68.44 per barrel, down 1.07%; the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $580.50 per ton, up 0.76%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $720.50 per ton, up 0.70% [1]. - **PTA**: On July 25, 2025, the CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4,936 yuan per ton, up 1.77% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,902 yuan per ton, up 1.83%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4,894 yuan per ton, up 1.66% [1]. - **PX**: On July 25, 2025, the CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 7,062 yuan per ton, up 1.52% from the previous value; the settlement price was 7,022 yuan per ton, up 1.74%. The spot price of p - xylene in the domestic market was 6,840 yuan per ton, up 1.76% [1]. - **PR**: On July 25, 2025, the CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 6,130 yuan per ton, up 1.46% from the previous value; the settlement price was 6,088 yuan per ton, up 1.16%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 6,080 yuan per ton, up 1.25% [1]. - **Downstream**: On July 25, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,600 yuan per ton, up 0.23% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,950 yuan per ton, up 1.02% [2]. Supply - related Information - **Device Information**: The 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. The 2 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng Hainan is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, and the domestic PX is in a destocking cycle. PTA will have new device production in the third quarter, which is misaligned with PX in terms of time [2]. Demand - related Information - **Industry Operating Rate**: On July 25, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 77.29%, unchanged from the previous value; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 80.59%, unchanged; the load rate of polyester factories was 87.01%, unchanged [1]. - **Sales Rate**: On July 25, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 29%, down 15 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 78%, up 10 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 130%, up 44 percentage points [1]. Market Analysis and Strategy - **PX**: This week, the PX price rose after a stalemate, with the absolute price on Friday up 4.2% to $874 per ton CFR compared to the previous period. The weekly average price rebounded slightly, up 1.2% to $851 per ton CFR. Whether the PX profit can continue to rise depends on more unexpected factors. Currently, due to the off - season of polyester consumption and the significant decline in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates [2]. - **PTA**: In the third quarter, PTA will have new device production, and the current PTA processing fee is in a low - range. The polyester factories actually carried out maintenance in July, and the operating rate decreased significantly compared to June. Attention should be paid to whether the rumors of several PTA device overhauls in early August will be realized [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by the anti - involution trend, bulk commodities are strong. The TA2509 contract closed at 4,936 yuan per ton (up 2.53%), with an intraday trading volume of 1.2 million lots; the PX2509 contract closed at 7,062 yuan per ton (up 2.32%), with an intraday trading volume of 190,000 lots; the PR2509 contract closed at 6,130 yuan per ton (up 1.86%), with an intraday trading volume of 62,600 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2].