Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Corn Starch Daily Report [2] - Date: September 11, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Dayong [6] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03107370 [6] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018389 [6] Group 2: Data Futures Disk - C2601: Closing price 2172, up 2 (0.09%), volume 112,026 (-43.81%), open interest 435,154 (3.08%) [3] - C2605: Closing price 2240, unchanged (0.00%), volume 16,051 (30.54%), open interest 81,333 (1.19%) [3] - C2509: Closing price 2302, up 17 (0.74%), volume 691 (DIV/0!), open interest 11,759 (0.68%) [3] - CS2601: Closing price 2497, down 5 (-0.20%), volume 17,752 (-24.92%), open interest 60,779 (4.53%) [3] - CS2605: Closing price 2584, down 4 (-0.15%), volume 346 (-53.18%), open interest 1,002 (0.40%) [3] - CS2509: Closing price 2502, unchanged (0.00%), volume 0 (DIV/0!), open interest 1,501 (0.00%) [3] Spot and Basis - Corn: Qinggang 2220 (unchanged), Jiajishenghua 2180 (unchanged), Zhucheng Xingmao 2420 (-6), Shouguang 2324 (-30), Jinzhou Port 2310 (unchanged), Nantong Port 2420 (unchanged), Guangdong Port 2450 (unchanged) [3] - Starch: Longfeng 2700 (unchanged), COFCO 2750 (unchanged), Cargill 2800 (unchanged), Yufeng 2990 (unchanged), Jinyumi 2850 (unchanged), Zhucheng Xingmao 2940 (unchanged), Hengren Gongmao 2810 (unchanged) [3] Spreads - Corn Inter - delivery: C01 - C05 -68 (up 2), C05 - C09 -62 (-17), C09 - C01 130 (up 15) [3] - Starch Inter - delivery: CS01 - CS05 -87 (-1), CS05 - CS09 82 (-4), CS09 - CS01 5 (up 5) [3] - Cross - variety: CS09 - C09 200 (-17), CS01 - C01 325 (-7), CS05 - C05 344 (-4) [3] Group 3: Market Judgment Corn - US corn prices have fallen, but there may be a rebound due to potential downward adjustment of US corn yield. China has imposed a 15% tariff on US corn, with a total of 26% tariff within the quota, and a 22% tariff on US sorghum. The import profit of foreign corn is relatively high, with the December Brazilian import price at 2116 yuan. The northern port closing price is stable at around 2310 yuan, and the spot price in the northeast corn - producing area is relatively strong. The supply in North China has increased, leading to a decline in the spot price, and the price difference between northeast and North China corn has narrowed. The wheat price in North China is weak, and the price difference between wheat and corn is small, so wheat continues to be a substitute. The domestic breeding demand is still weak, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is high. The corn spot price is relatively stable in the short term. Due to recent imports and domestic corn auctions, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new - season corn, the corn spot price is expected to decline. It is estimated that by the end of September, the North China corn price may reach 2200 yuan/ton, and the price in Heilongjiang may be below 2100 yuan/ton [5][7] Starch - The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the Shandong corn spot price is stable. The starch price in Shandong is around 2750 yuan, and the northeast starch spot price is also weak. This week, the corn starch inventory has decreased to 122.6 million tons, a decrease of 3.9 million tons from last week, a monthly decrease of 6.98% and a year - on - year increase of 40.3%. The current starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. The average income from by - products in the past few years has been over 600 yuan, and today the by - product contribution in Shandong is 630 yuan (670 yuan in Heilongjiang). The by - product price is still strong, much higher than last year, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. The North China corn price is stable in the short term, while the northeast corn price is relatively weak. In the medium and long term, due to weak starch demand, enterprises will be in a long - term loss state. Today, the 01 starch contract has followed the corn price in a weak shock. The North China corn price still has room to fall by early October, and the corn starch spot price will also decline later. The loss of North China deep - processing plants will expand, and it is expected that the 01 starch contract on the short - term disk will continue to be in a weak shock [8] Group 4: Trading Strategies - For the US corn, there is support at 400 cents per bushel. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for the 01 corn contract. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [10][11] Group 5: Corn Option Strategies - Spot - holding enterprises can close out their short positions in corn call options, or they can try to gradually sell at high prices in the short term and conduct rolling operations [14] Group 6: Related Attachments - The report includes six figures, namely the spot price of corn in various regions, the basis of the corn 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of corn, the 1 - 5 spread of corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 01 contract, and the spread of the corn starch 01 contract [16][17][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The yield per unit of US corn may be lowered later, and the price of the December contract of US corn has strong support at 400 cents per bushel. The price of domestic corn spot is expected to continue to decline, and the 01 corn contract is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The starch market is weak, with the operating rate and price of starch both decreasing, and the loss of starch factories expanding. The price of wheat, a substitute for corn, is basically stable [4]. - The net short position of non - commercial traders in US corn has decreased, and the ethanol production is stable. In the domestic market, the inventory of deep - processing enterprises and northern ports has decreased, while the grain inventory in southern ports has increased [15][23]. - The breeding profits of pigs, broilers, and laying hens have different degrees of change. The operating rates of starch sugar and paper mills in the downstream of corn starch have decreased [45][51][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Market Situation Analysis** - US corn is expected to have a high yield, but the yield per unit may be lowered later. The 400 - cent - per - bushel support for the December contract of US corn is strong, and it will fluctuate in the short term. Domestic corn is continuously auctioned, and new corn in North China will be listed in mid - to - late September. The price of Shandong corn is expected to fall to around 2,200 yuan per ton, and the price of domestic corn spot is expected to continue to decline [4]. - The planting cost of new - season corn has decreased, but farmers may be reluctant to sell. The 01 corn contract is expected to fluctuate at the bottom and should be operated according to seasonal rules [4]. - **Trading Strategies** - For single - side trading, consider buying the December contract of US corn around 400 cents per bushel and short - selling the 01 corn contract lightly above 2,200 yuan per ton [5]. - For arbitrage and options trading, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Market** - The yield per unit of US corn may be lowered, and the price has rebounded. The December contract has strong support at 400 cents per bushel. The import tariffs of US corn and sorghum are 26% and 23% respectively, and the domestic import profit has expanded [8]. - As of August 26, the non - commercial net short position of US corn was 70,000 lots, showing a decrease. The ethanol production in the US is stable [15]. - **Domestic Market** - The inventory of feed enterprises has decreased. As of September 4, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed enterprises was 27.63 days, a decrease of 0.5 days compared with the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 5.12% [19]. - The consumption of deep - processing enterprises is stable. From August 28 to September 4, 2025, 149 major domestic corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.143 million tons of corn, an increase of 0.29 million tons compared with the previous week. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has decreased. As of September 3, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 2.711 million tons, a decrease of 7.85% compared with the previous week [20]. - The corn inventory in northern ports has decreased, while the grain inventory in southern ports has increased. As of August 28, the corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.127 million tons, a decrease of 145,000 tons compared with the previous week. The total grain inventory in Guangdong Port increased by 78,000 tons [23]. - The operating rate of the starch industry has decreased. From August 28 to September 4, the national corn processing volume was 515,500 tons, and the starch output was 246,800 tons, a decrease of 17,100 tons compared with the previous week. The operating rate was 47.7%, a decrease of 3.31% compared with the previous week. The profit of starch factories has decreased, and the inventory has decreased. As of September 3, the corn starch inventory was 1.265 million tons, a decrease of 53,000 tons compared with the previous week [26]. - The price of wheat, a substitute for corn, is basically stable, with the arrival price in North China at around 2,430 yuan per ton [34]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding** - From August 28 to September 4, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 24 yuan per head, an increase of 32 yuan per head compared with the previous week, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 184 yuan per head, an increase of 26 yuan per head compared with the previous week [45]. - The breeding profit of white - feather broilers was 0.95 yuan per chicken, down from 1.6 yuan per chicken in the previous week [51]. - The breeding cost of laying hens was 3.53 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit was - 0.36 yuan per catty, an increase from - 0.4 yuan per catty in the previous week [51]. - **Starch Downstream Consumption** - The operating rate of starch sugar has decreased. The operating rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup was 57.68%, a decrease of 0.68% compared with the previous week, and the operating rate of maltose syrup was 48.36%, a decrease of 0.94% compared with the previous week [54]. - The operating rate of paper mills has decreased. The operating rate of corrugated paper was 63.37%, a decrease of 0.05% compared with the previous week, and the operating rate of containerboard was 69.13%, a decrease of 1.04% compared with the previous week [54]. - **Price and Spread** - The price and spread data of corn and its substitutes, as well as the basis and spread data of corn and corn starch futures contracts, are presented through various charts, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [55][63].

Core Insights - The corn prices in various regions of China remain stable, with specific prices reported for different locations [1][2] - The futures market shows a slight increase in corn prices, with the main contract closing at 2224.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.09% rise [2][3] - The USDA reports a decline in the good-to-excellent rating of U.S. corn, now at 69%, which is still the highest level for this time of year since 2016 [3] Price Overview - Yellow corn prices in Shenzhen, Guangdong are at 2370 yuan/ton, while in Weifang, Shandong, they are at 2450 yuan/ton [2] - Prices vary across regions, with the lowest reported at 2100 yuan/ton in Harbin, Heilongjiang [2] - The futures market experienced a trading volume of 560,161 contracts on September 5 [2] Market Analysis - Short-term outlook indicates a stabilization and potential strengthening of spot prices, with attention on new season corn planting costs and the wheat-corn price spread [4] - Mid-term focus will be on new season corn dynamics, including opening prices and grain storage efforts [4] - Long-term pricing logic is driven by import substitution and planting costs, with a significant emphasis on policy direction [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn continues to rebound, and there may be a downward adjustment of the US corn yield per unit later, indicating potential for further rebound. China has reinstated a 15% tariff on US corn, with a total of 26% tariff within the quota, and a 22% tariff on US sorghum. The import profit of foreign corn is relatively high, with the import price from Brazil in December at 2,140 yuan. The domestic corn spot market is expected to decline with the upcoming large - scale listing of new - season corn, and the 01 corn futures may also fall. The starch market is mainly influenced by corn prices and downstream inventory. With weak long - term demand, starch enterprises will be in a long - term loss state, and the 01 starch futures are expected to decline in the short term [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Market**: On September 3, 2025, most corn and corn starch futures contracts showed price declines. For example, C2601 closed at 2,182, down 1 (-0.05%); CS2601 closed at 2,520, down 15 (-0.60%). The trading volume of most contracts decreased, while the open interest of some contracts increased. For instance, the trading volume of C2601 decreased by 39.78%, and the open interest of CS2601 increased by 13.13% [3]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in Qinggang increased by 10 yuan to 2,145 yuan, while prices in other regions remained stable. Starch spot prices in all listed regions remained unchanged. The basis of corn and starch in different regions varied, with corn basis ranging from - 114 to 203 yuan and starch basis from 203 to 393 yuan [3]. - **Spreads**: In the corn market, C01 - C05 spread was - 63, up 3; in the starch market, CS01 - CS05 spread was - 77, down 3. The cross - variety spreads such as CS09 - C09 was 215, up 3 [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Corn**: The US corn market has upward potential. In the domestic market, the northern port flat - hatch prices are stable, while the northeast corn spot is weak. The supply in North China has increased, and the corn price is stable. The wheat price in North China is weak, and wheat continues to substitute for corn. The domestic breeding demand is weak, and the downstream feed enterprises have high inventory. With the upcoming large - scale listing of new - season corn, the corn spot price is expected to decline. It is predicted that by the end of September, the corn price in North China may reach 2,200 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang, it may be around 2,100 yuan/ton [5][7]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants is stable, and the corn price in Shandong is stable. The starch price in Shandong is around 2,800 yuan, and the northeast starch spot is weak. This week, the corn starch inventory decreased to 126.5 million tons, a decrease of 5.3 million tons from last week, with a monthly decline of 4.2% and a year - on - year increase of 37.2%. The starch price is mainly affected by corn prices and downstream inventory. In the long - term, due to weak demand, enterprises will be in a loss state. The 01 starch futures are expected to decline in the short term [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The US corn has support at 400 cents per bushel. It is recommended to mainly observe the 01 corn [10]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to observe [11]. 3.4 Corn Options - For enterprises with spot, it is recommended to close out short positions of corn call options. Short - term traders can try to sell on rallies and conduct rolling operations [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The US corn continues to rebound, and there may be a downward adjustment to the US corn yield per unit later, indicating potential for further rebound. The import profit of foreign corn is relatively high, and the import price from Brazil in December is 2131 yuan. The domestic corn spot is expected to decline with the approaching large - scale listing of new - season corn [5][7]. - The starch price is mainly influenced by corn price and downstream stocking. With weak starch demand in the medium - to - long - term, enterprises will be in a long - term loss state, and the short - term spot price of corn starch is also expected to fall [8]. - For trading strategies, the 01 corn contract is recommended to close long positions and wait and see, and the option strategy for enterprises with spot is to close short positions on corn call options or try short - term high - selling and rolling operations [10][14]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Data - **Futures Disk**: For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2183 with a 0.05% increase, C2605 at 2249 with a 0.09% decrease, and C2509 at 2265 with a 0.44% increase. For corn starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2535 with no change, CS2605 at 2609 with a 0.04% decrease, and CS2509 at 2477 with a 0.16% decrease. Trading volumes and open interest of each contract showed different degrees of change [3]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in different regions were stable today, with basis values ranging from - 130 to 197. Starch spot prices were also stable, and basis values ranged from 191 to 381 [3]. - **Spreads**: Corn and starch inter - delivery spreads and cross - variety spreads showed different changes, such as the C01 - C05 spread being - 66 with a 3 - point increase, and the CS09 - C09 spread being 212 with a 14 - point decrease [3]. Part 2: Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn has a rebound space. China's tariffs on US corn and sorghum are adjusted. The import profit of foreign corn is high. The northern port's flat - hatch price is stable, the northeast corn spot is weak, the north China corn is stable, and the wheat - corn substitution continues. With the approaching large - scale listing of new - season corn, the corn spot price is expected to fall [5][7]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants is stable, and the starch spot price is stable. The corn starch inventory decreased this week. The starch price is mainly affected by corn price and downstream stocking. In the medium - to - long - term, the demand is weak, and the short - term spot price is expected to decline [8]. Part 3: Corn Options - Option Strategy: Enterprises with spot are recommended to close short positions on corn call options, or try short - term high - selling and rolling operations [14]. Part 4: Related Attachments - The attachments include various charts such as those showing corn spot prices in different regions, corn and corn starch basis and spreads, providing historical data and trends for reference [16][18][22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: In the domestic market, the new corn season is approaching in the Northeast production area. Reserve rotation corn is continuously released to supplement market supply. Traders' confidence in price support has weakened, accelerating the sale of remaining grains. Feed - using enterprises have relatively sufficient inventories and low procurement enthusiasm, preferring to wait for new grains. Some price - setting enterprises have continuously lowered their quotes. Recently, due to short - covering by bears, the corn futures price has rebounded slightly from the low level [2]. - **Corn Starch**: With the resumption of work of previously overhauled enterprises, the operating rate of the corn starch industry has rebounded recently, increasing supply - side pressure. Meanwhile, downstream demand is still in the off - season, with poor order signing and shipment. The supply of corn starch far exceeds demand, and inventory pressure remains high. Affected by the corn rebound, the starch price has oscillated higher [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Domestic Futures**: The closing price of the active corn starch futures contract is 2193 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan), and that of the active corn futures contract is 2500 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan). The 1 - 5 corn monthly spread is - 69 yuan/ton, and the 11 - 1 corn starch monthly spread is - 35 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan). The active - contract positions of yellow corn and corn starch are 974389 hands and 205537 hands respectively, with the latter down 3350 hands. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn starch and corn are - 83289 hands and - 35460 hands respectively, with the latter down 427 hands. The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn and corn starch are 67737 hands and 7450 hands respectively, with the former down 1689 hands. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 226 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) [2]. - **CBOT Futures**: The closing price of the active CBOT corn futures contract is 9.25 cents/bushel. The total CBOT corn positions are 1456701 contracts (down 109666 contracts), and the non - commercial net long positions are - 70940 contracts (up 34270 contracts) [2]. Spot Market - **Corn Spot**: The average spot price of corn is 2364.12 yuan/ton (down 0.59 yuan), the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2280 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), and the CIF price of imported corn is 1926.14 yuan/ton (down 15.15 yuan). The international freight of imported corn is 0 dollars/ton. The basis of the corn main contract is - 2.59 yuan [2]. - **Corn Starch Spot**: The ex - factory quotes of corn starch in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2660 yuan/ton, 2900 yuan/ton, and 2830 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged. The basis of the corn starch main contract is 160 yuan (up 1 yuan), and the weekly spread between Shandong starch and corn is 370 yuan/ton (up 34 yuan) [2]. - **Substitute Spot**: The average spot price of wheat is 2428.06 yuan/ton (down 0.83 yuan), the weekly spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 184 yuan/ton (up 27 yuan), and the daily spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 67 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 398.93 million hectares, etc. The predicted corn yields in these countries are 35.12 million tons, 22.6 million tons, 7.5 million tons, 44.3 million tons, and 30.5 million tons respectively (only the US yield is down 0.25 million tons) [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The corn inventories at southern ports, northern ports, and deep - processing enterprises are 9.9 million tons, 175 million tons, and 294.2 million tons respectively, with the latter down 20.5 million tons. The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 131.8 million tons (down 2.1 million tons, a 1.57% weekly decrease, 0.53% monthly increase, and 31.41% year - on - year increase) [2][3]. - **Trade Volume**: The monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons (down 10 million tons), and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 15940 tons (up 1440 tons) [2]. - **Output**: The monthly output of feed is 2827.3 million tons (down 110.4 million tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - The average inventory days of sample feed corn is 28.13 days (down 0.72 days). The deep - processing corn consumption is 114.02 million tons (up 0.4 million tons). The operating rates of alcohol and starch enterprises are 42.87% and 51.01% respectively, with the latter down 1.29% [2]. - The processing profits of corn starch in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are - 117 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan), - 51 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan), and - 79 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan) respectively [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities of corn are 7.91% (up 0.02%) and 6.37% (down 0.17%) respectively. The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options on corn are 10.01% (up 0.18%) and 10.02% (up 0.19%) respectively [2]. Industry News - Brazilian ethanol producer Inpasa and grain processing and export giant Amaggi will establish a joint venture to build at least three new corn ethanol plants in Mato Grosso [2]. - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) reported that the corn harvest in Argentina is nearing completion. As of August 27, the harvest progress of the 2024/25 Argentine corn crop was 97.2%, 1.3% higher than a week ago [2]. - Pro Farmer's final yield forecast report shows that the total US corn production in 2025 is expected to reach 1.6204 billion bushels, with an average yield of 182.7 bushels per acre, which is a record high but lower than the USDA's August forecast of 1.6742 billion bushels and 188.8 bushels per acre [2]. Key Points of Concern - Monitor the weekly corn consumption and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday as reported by Mysteel [3].

Group 1: Market Overview - Pro Farmer's final yield estimate report indicates that the total corn production in the U.S. for 2025 is projected to reach 16.204 billion bushels, with an average yield of 182.7 bushels per acre, marking a historical high but still below the USDA's August forecast of 16.742 billion bushels and 188.8 bushels per acre [1] - As of September 1, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported a decrease of 1,689 contracts in corn futures warehouse receipts, totaling 67,737 contracts [1] - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) reported that Argentina's corn harvest is nearing completion, with 97.2% of the 2024/25 crop harvested as of August 27, an increase of 1.3% from the previous week [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Donghai Futures notes that as September begins, the pricing weight of the new season corn increases, with main futures prices entering last year's pricing range. There is no concentrated port pressure this year, and the low carryover inventory along with excessive rainfall risks in major production areas persist. Despite lower planting costs due to decreased land rental costs, the likelihood of breaking last year's price range is considered low under the current policy environment aimed at stabilizing prices and increasing farmers' income [2] - Zhongyuan Futures highlights that new grain is gradually entering the market, with low inventory levels among Northeast traders and continued imports suppressing market sentiment. Demand from feed consumption is under pressure due to policy impacts, and deep processing enterprises are exerting price pressure to create pricing advantages for new grain. Currently, there is intense competition around the 2,200 yuan level, with actual prices breaking the previous support level of 2,150 yuan. It is advised to maintain a wait-and-see approach, focusing on the rhythm of new grain listings and the potential breakthrough of the 2,200 yuan resistance level, with risks associated with a concentrated new grain market potentially leading to price corrections in the 2,150-2,170 yuan range [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玉米周报】 新陈交替，盘面低位震荡 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玉米:新陈交替，盘面低位震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 短期偏多， | （1）余粮趋紧，北港集港量低位；（2）25/26年度种植成本继续下降，推算集港约1950-2100元吨；播种面积稳中略减；目前新季玉米长势良好；（3）进 | | | 中期偏空 | 口谷物政策限制持续，进口谷物供应缩量。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | （1）据饲料工业协会数据，2025年7月，全国工业饲料产量2831万吨，环比增长2.3%，同比增长5.5%。饲料企业生产的配合饲料中玉米用量占比为33.1%， （2）畜禽短期预期维持高存栏，支撑饲用需求，但国家政策倾向于控生猪存栏和体重，或影响远月供应；（3）麦玉价差低位，华北饲料厂小麦饲用替代比 例较高，抑制对玉米的需求；（4）新粮上市前，饲料企业采取低库存策略，对玉米的维持刚需采购；（4）深加工下游需求表现不佳，加工利润亏损，倒逼 | | | | 开机率下滑至低位，深加工需求缩量。 | | 库存 ...

Group 1 - As of the week ending August 29, 2025, corn futures closed at 2191 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline in the K-line and an increase in open interest by 28,014 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - During the week of August 25-29, the corn futures opened at 2175 CNY/ton, reached a high of 2197 CNY/ton, and a low of 2150 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly change of 1.58% [1] Group 2 - The USDA's latest drought report indicates that as of the week ending August 26, approximately 5% of the U.S. corn planting area was affected by drought, unchanged from the previous week and down from 8% year-on-year [2] - For the week ending August 21, U.S. net corn export sales for the 2024/2025 marketing year were -18,000 tons, an improvement from -27,000 tons the previous week; for the 2025/2026 marketing year, net sales were 2.09 million tons, down from 2.86 million tons the previous week [2] - As of August 27, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major processing enterprises across 12 regions in China was 2.942 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 6.51% [2] Group 3 - Guosen Futures noted that recent rapid outflows of warehouse receipts and increased inventory reduction at northern ports have alleviated short-term pressure; however, wheat retains a substitution advantage in some areas, and the demand side remains weak due to general livestock profits and ongoing losses in deep processing, leading to insufficient motivation for large-scale replenishment [3] - Zhengxin Futures observed that the quality of U.S. corn is better than expected, leading to a weak fluctuation; domestic reserve purchases are supporting wheat prices, but the arrival of some spring corn and lower opening prices are stimulating short-term increases in corn supply, while market sentiment remains bearish [3] - In the medium to long term, with the new corn harvest approaching and traders increasing selling pressure, the overall outlook for corn is expected to remain weak [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a bearish trading strategy for both corn and corn starch. Corn futures are in a weak trend due to increased US production and inventory, upcoming new - grain harvest in China, and sufficient supply. Corn starch futures also show a weak trend as the industry's operating rate rises while demand is in the off - season, resulting in a supply - demand imbalance [7][8][11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Corn**: The main 2511 contract of corn futures closed at 2175 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous week. The USDA raised the production and ending stocks of US corn in the 2025/26 season. The new grain in Northeast China will be on the market in September, and the supply is relatively loose. The spot market price is under pressure, and the overall trend of corn is weak [8] - **Corn Starch**: The main 2511 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2498 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton from the previous week. The operating rate of the corn starch industry has rebounded, but the downstream demand is in the off - season. As of August 20, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises was 133.9 million tons, showing an increase in inventory. The overall trend of starch is weak [12] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes**: The November contract of corn futures closed down with a total position of 955,265 lots, an increase of 126,808 lots from the previous week. The November contract of corn starch futures closed down narrowly with a total position of 202,789 lots, an increase of 64,168 lots from the previous week [16] - **Top 20 Net Position Changes**: The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 97,205, an increase in net short positions compared to the previous week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 20,670, also an increase in net short positions compared to the previous week [22] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 103,290, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 7,450 [28] - **Spot Price and Basis**: As of August 22, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,373.53 yuan/ton, and the basis between the November active contract of corn and the average spot price was + 198 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,850 yuan/ton and 2,950 yuan/ton in Shandong, remaining stable this week. The basis between the November contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 352 yuan/ton [33][38] - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 11 - 1 spread of corn was 3 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 11 - 1 spread of starch was - 29 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [44] - **Futures Spread**: The spread between the November contracts of starch and corn was 323 yuan/ton. In the 34th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 336 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [54] - **Substitute Spread**: As of August 20, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,436.5 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,384.71 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 51.79 yuan/ton. In the 34th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 157 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [58] 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Corn Supply**: As of August 15, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 66.9 million tons, a decrease of 7.9 million tons from the previous week, and the foreign trade inventory was 0.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 151.1 million tons, a decrease of 26.3 million tons week - on - week. The shipping volume of the four northern ports was 32.9 million tons, an increase of 8.2 million tons week - on - week. In July 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 6 million tons, a decrease of 103 million tons compared to the same period last year and a decrease of 10 million tons compared to the previous month. As of August 21, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 28.85 days, a decrease of 0.76 days from the previous week [48][67][71] - **Corn Demand**: As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.43 million, an increase of 10,000 compared to the previous month. As of August 15, 2025, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 28.85 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 157.05 yuan/head. As of August 21, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 46 yuan/ton, and the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 685 yuan/ton, - 551 yuan/ton in Jilin, and - 168 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [75][79][84] - **Corn Starch Supply**: As of August 20, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 314.7 million tons, a decrease of 7.5%. From August 14 to August 20, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 54.9 million tons, a decrease of 2.7 million tons from the previous week. The national corn starch output was 27.06 million tons, a decrease of 1.86 million tons from the previous week. The weekly operating rate was 52.3%, a decrease of 3.6% from the previous week. As of August 20, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises was 133.9 million tons, an increase of 0.7 million tons from the previous week [88][92] 3.4. Option Market Analysis - As of August 22, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2511 contract of corn was 9.73%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous week. The implied volatility fluctuated and declined this week, being at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [95]