Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The decline in port inventory has slowed down, while inland inventory has rebounded. Port total inventory continues to decline, with high floating storage pressure due to delayed unloading. Inland inventory is being replenished. On the supply side, coal - based production has stable operation, and southwest gas - based production has seasonal winter maintenance. In terms of MTO, new installations and maintenance affect demand in different regions. Traditional downstream industries have different operating conditions [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in different regions such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc., and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., MA2605 - MA2609) [7][16][21] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the profit of East China MTO (PP&EG type), and import price differences such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and price differences between different regions (CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, etc.) [26][30][31] 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Port total inventory is 1,218,818 tons (-15,552 tons), with inventory in different ports showing different trends. Inland factory inventory is 391,140 tons (+38,310 tons). The MTO/P operating rate is 89.95% (-0.88%). The report also analyzes the reasons for inventory changes in ports and inland areas [1][2][33] 4. Regional Price Differences - There are price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between Lubei and Northwest (-280), Taicang and Inner Mongolia (-550), etc. These price differences have changed to varying degrees [2][37][44] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream industries such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [45][54] Strategy - Unilateral: No strategy - Inter - period: Go long on the MA2605 - MA2609 spread when it is low - Cross - variety: Go short on the LL2605 - 3*MA2605 cross - variety spread when it is high [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of domestic methanol enterprises may still show a slight accumulation in the short - term. The port inventory of methanol decreased slightly this week. The提货 of the mainstream social warehouses in East China continued well, but the shutdown and maintenance of an olefin plant in Zhejiang continued to affect consumption. In South China, imports and domestic trade vessels continued to replenish, the提货 volume of the main storage areas was acceptable, and the inventory increased slightly. The market should continue to pay attention to the unloading of foreign vessels. - The operation of MTO industry declined. Although the production load of the newly - put - into - operation MTO device of Lianhong Gerun will gradually increase in the short - term, considering the previously shut - down and overhauled devices, the industry operation is still expected to decline. - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2000 - 2180 in the short - term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2156 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 27 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of methanol was - 45 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton. - The open interest of the main methanol contract was 874,732 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 21,895 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 133,848 lots. - The number of warehouse receipts for methanol was 7,709, a week - on - week decrease of 726. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2095 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1955 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 34 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 245 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 317 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 253 euros/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 euro/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 72 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.94 US dollars/million British thermal units, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 US dollars/million British thermal units. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 830,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 108,200 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 403,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,800 tons. - The import profit of methanol was 7.94 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.42 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 1.6126 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 185,700 tons. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 352,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,700 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 89.81%, a week - on - week increase of 0.72%. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 41.49%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.42%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 8.98%, a week - on - week increase of 1.1%. - The operating rate of acetic acid was 73.89%, a week - on - week increase of 4.27%; the operating rate of MTBE was 69.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%. - The operating rate of olefins was 89.95%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87%; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 1014 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 83 yuan/ton. [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 16.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 0.55%. - The 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 17.39%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 17.94%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.57%. [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 17, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 391,100 tons, an increase of 38,300 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 10.86%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 220,400 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 6.25%. - As of December 17, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.2188 million tons, a decrease of 15,600 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 31,000 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 15,400 tons. - Recently, the production capacity loss due to maintenance and production reduction of domestic methanol was less than the production capacity output due to recovery, and the overall output increased. The operation of inland methanol projects was normal, and the overall supply was abundant. Affected by the previous snowfall and the concentrated return of goods from downstream enterprises during the week, the loading and shipping rhythm of upstream enterprises slowed down. As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 90.20%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.68%. The Ningbo Fude plant was under maintenance, and the Qinghai Salt Lake plant was shut down after a short - term start - up, resulting in a decline in the operation of the MTO industry. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of domestic methanol production enterprises may accumulate in the short - term due to sufficient supply in the main production areas and some large methanol plants increasing production, despite a slight decrease in inventory last week. The port inventory decreased significantly last week, and future attention should be paid to the unloading of foreign vessels. The MTO industry's operating rate is expected to decline. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2070 - 2170 in the short - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2074 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 50 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 370491 lots, down 111898 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 159057 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8623, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2095 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1960 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton. The East - Northwest price difference is 130 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is 21 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the Chinese main port is 245 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 317 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 254 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia is - 72 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.1 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.13 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 83.06 tons, down 10.82 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 40.38 tons, down 0.68 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 19.56 yuan/ton, down 6.15 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 161.26 tons, up 18.57 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 352800 tons, down 8700 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 89.81%, up 0.72% [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 41.49%, down 1.42%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 8.98%, up 1.1%. The operating rate of acetic acid is 73.89%, up 4.27%; the operating rate of MTBE is 69.75%, down 0.22%. The operating rate of olefins is 89.95%, down 0.87%. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 918 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 18.54%, down 1.75%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 0.55%. The 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 17.98%, down 0.57%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.94%, down 0.57% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 10, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 35.28 tons, down 0.87 tons or 2.40% from the previous period; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 20.75 tons, down 3.22 tons or 13.45% from the previous period. As of December 10, the total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 123.44 tons, down 11.5 tons from the previous data. As of December 11, the output of domestic methanol increased as the production capacity loss from maintenance and production cuts was less than the output from capacity recovery [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol market is currently experiencing significant changes. The main contract is shifting, the basis is strengthening, and the 15 - spread is rapidly converging. The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in spot and futures prices, as well as in different regions. In the future, the coastal methanol market is expected to maintain a box - shock trend due to factors such as inventory and demand [6][41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Methanol Futures and Spot Prices and Spread Trends**: The main methanol contract MA2601 closed at 2067 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 1.4% and a reduction of 390,000 lots in positions, leaving 480,000 lots in position. The second - main contract MA2605 closed at 2099 yuan/ton, with a decline of 4.2%, an increase of 60,000 lots in positions, and 830,000 lots in position and 750,000 lots in trading volume. The port basis continued to strengthen, and the 15 - spread also converged rapidly [6]. - **Methanol Spot Prices in Different Regions and Production - Sales Area Spreads**: The coastal methanol market declined weakly this week, while the inland market fluctuated narrowly. The weekly average price in the Taicang area was 2086 yuan/ton, a 1.25% decline from the previous week. The weekly average price in Inner Mongolia was 1984 yuan/ton, a 0.75% decrease from the previous week. Due to the expected climate in the north, freight rates increased, and producers in production areas sold at discounted prices, while some downstream enterprises in sales areas still had the enthusiasm to replenish stocks, and the freight rate increase supported a narrow increase in the transaction price [8]. - **Methanol Foreign Market Prices and Domestic - Foreign Spreads**: For foreign markets, the reference negotiation price for non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future is 236 - 244 US dollars/ton, and that for Iranian methanol shipments is - 1 - 0.5%. The cost in US dollars has increased, and buyers are relatively cautious. The methanol markets in Europe and the United States are operating weakly, with the reference price in Europe at 257 euros/ton and that in the United States at 89 - 90 cents/gallon [10]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Methanol Operating Rate**: As of December 11, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants was 76.64%, a 0.45 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 1.50 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region was 87.53%, a 1.05 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 0.97 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The operating loads in the northwest and north China increased this week, leading to a slight increase in the national methanol operating load [14]. - **Methanol Import and Export Volume**: The import arbitrage window is closed, while the re - export arbitrage window remains open [15]. - **Methanol Port Inventory**: The average operating load of methanol - to - olefins plants this week was 85.49%, a 1.81 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. Among them, the average load of MTO plants that purchase methanol externally was 79.01%, a 4.95 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The Ningbo Fude MTO plant started a 40 - 50 - day maintenance on December 8. The Qinghai Salt Lake plant resumed operation on December 6, and the overall CTO/MTO operating rate in the country decreased [21]. - **Crude Oil and Natural Gas**: The international natural gas price has corrected from a high level, and the import cost of natural gas - to - methanol has dropped to 1880 yuan/ton. The price of the domestic thermal coal market continued to decline this week. Most mainstream coal mines in production areas maintained stable production, but downstream demand was not ideal. Power plants mainly replenished stocks through long - term contracts, and pit - mouth prices mostly continued to decline [22][26]. - **Methanol Downstream - Traditional Downstream**: The overall weighted operating rate of methanol downstream industries was 77.6%, a 1.6% decrease from the previous week. The weighted operating rate of traditional downstream industries was 54.9%, a 0.2% increase from the previous week [28]. - **Methanol Downstream - MTO**: The average operating load of methanol - to - olefins plants this week was 85.49%, a 1.81 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The average load of MTO plants that purchase methanol externally was 79.01%, a 4.95 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The Ningbo Fude MTO plant started a 40 - 50 - day maintenance on December 8. The Qinghai Salt Lake plant resumed operation on December 6, and the overall CTO/MTO operating rate in the country decreased [38]. 3.3 Future Outlook - Affected by the port policy on the age of imported methanol vessels this week, there was congestion at the port, delaying the actual unloading progress of imported vessels. At the same time, the rigid demand for提货 was stable, and the number of re - export vessels in Taicang increased. The coastal methanol inventory continued to decline significantly, and the decline in spot and near - month contracts was slightly narrower. However, coastal MTO plants have entered maintenance, and imported vessels and floating storage still need to be unloaded and stored in the warehouse one after another. There is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the coastal methanol market in the later stage, and the weak demand pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the coastal methanol market will maintain a box - shock trend next week [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 05 contract was pressured due to the accelerated destocking of port inventories and the overall macro - pessimism about the future. The 1 - 5 spread strengthened significantly. The reality and expectations were average, with the single - side trend being weakly volatile and short - term contradictions not being sharp [11]. - The macro - expectations weakened, and the accelerated port destocking led to the strengthening of the inter - month spread, but the single - side trend was weakly volatile [11]. - After the bullish factors were realized, the market entered a short - term consolidation. The significant decline in imports led to accelerated destocking of port inventories, but there were doubts about future destocking. The shutdown of port MTO plants was realized, and short - term demand weakened. MTO profits continued to decline. The enterprise profits on the supply side returned to a neutral position, and the operating rate remained at a high level in the same period, with overall supply at a high level [11]. - As the bullish factors were realized, the market would return to the reality logic. The methanol fundamentals still had certain pressure, and it was expected to be mainly sorted out at a low level. It was recommended to wait and see for single - side trading [11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The 05 contract was pressured, the 1 - 5 spread strengthened significantly, and the single - side trend was weakly volatile [11]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: The domestic operating rate was 89.81%, a month - on - month increase of 0.81%, at a high level year - on - year. The arrival volume was 24.78 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.82 tons. The port MTO operating rate was 77.54%, a decrease of 9.94% from last week, and the plant shut down as scheduled [11]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of traditional demand such as formaldehyde and MTBE decreased, while others increased, with overall improvement. Enterprise profits returned to a neutral level [11]. - **Valuation**: Port MTO profits continued to decline, currently neutral. The overall methanol valuation was relatively neutral [11]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories were 123.44 tons, a decrease of 11.5 tons from the previous period. Production enterprise inventories were 35.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.87 tons, at a low level year - on - year [11]. - **Market Logic**: Weak macro - expectations and accelerated port destocking led to the strengthening of the inter - month spread, but the single - side trend was weakly volatile [11]. - **Summary**: After the bullish factors were realized, the market entered a short - term consolidation. There were doubts about future destocking. Short - term demand weakened, MTO profits declined, and overall supply was at a high level. The market was expected to be sorted out at a low level [11]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [11] 3.2. Spot - Futures Market - The document mainly presents various charts related to methanol's term structure, basis, spreads, trading volume, and open interest, such as the methanol term structure chart, 01 contract basis chart, 1 - 5 spread chart, 01 contract open interest chart, and total open interest chart [20][22][25] 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Energy Prices**: Charts of IPE UK natural gas, NYMEX natural gas, and power coal prices in Ordos and Qinhuangdao are presented [31][33][36] - **Profit Calculation**: Charts of profit calculations for coal - based methanol production in Inner Mongolia, Southwest gas - based methanol production, Shandong coal - based methanol production, and MA - 2*ZC are presented [39] - **Inventory Situation**: Port inventories are at a high level and are continuously being destocked. Charts of various regional inventories such as port inventories, East China port inventories, South China port inventories, and factory inventories are presented [41][42][49] 3.4. Supply Side - **Domestic and Overseas Operating Rates**: Charts of domestic methanol operating rates, weekly methanol production, and overseas methanol operating rates are presented. The domestic operating rate is at a high level [53] - **Import Volume**: Charts of import volume and its breakdown by country (Iran, Oman, Saudi Arabia) are presented [55][59] - **Arrival Volume**: The arrival volume has declined. Charts of arrival volumes in East China, South China, and the whole of China are presented [64][65] - **International Spreads and Domestic Freight**: Charts of import profits, international price spreads, and domestic methanol freight are presented [67][70][79] 3.5. Demand Side - **Demand Deduction**: Charts of methanol consumption and ending inventories are presented [84] - **Methanol - to - Olefins**: Charts related to the olefin operating rate, Jiangsu - Zhejiang MTO operating rate, and MTO - related spreads and profits are presented. The port MTO operating rate has decreased [86][87][98] - **PP Production Profits**: Charts of production profits of PP through various processes (oil - based, coal - based, PDH - based, and externally - sourced propylene - based) are presented [95] - **Other Downstream Industries**: Charts of operating rates and profits of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, MTBE, and other downstream industries, as well as downstream inventory, are presented [106][108][110] 3.6. Option - Related - Charts of methanol option open interest, trading volume, open interest PCR, trading volume PCR, and option volatility are presented [121][123] 3.7. Industry Structure Diagram - Charts of the methanol industry chain and the methanol research framework analysis mind - map are presented [126][128]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2070 - 2170 in the short term [7]. - This week, the port methanol market oscillated within a range, while the inland methanol price declined weakly. The low - priced port supplies continuously flowed into and significantly impacted the inland market [8]. - Recently, the output loss of domestic methanol due to maintenance and production cuts is less than the output increase from restored production, resulting in an overall increase in production. The total inventory of domestic methanol producers may accumulate in the short term, and the port inventory has significantly decreased. The MTO industry's operating rate is expected to decline [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2070 and 2170 in the short term [7]. - Market review: The port methanol market oscillated within a range this week, with Jiangsu prices between 2060 - 2120 yuan/ton and Guangdong prices between 2040 - 2100 yuan/ton. The inland price declined weakly, with Ordos' northern line prices between 1980 - 2007 yuan/ton and Dongying's receiving prices between 2200 - 2223 yuan/ton. Low - priced port supplies impacted the inland market [8]. - Market outlook: Domestic methanol production increased. The total inventory of producers may accumulate in the short term, and the port inventory decreased significantly. The MTO industry's operating rate is expected to decline [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the main Zhengzhou methanol futures contract oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 3.32% [12]. - Inter - delivery spread: As of December 12, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 32 [14]. - Position analysis: As of December 12, there were 8623 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, an increase of 1047 from last week [22]. Spot Market - Domestic prices: As of December 11, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2107.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.5 yuan/ton from last week. The mainstream price in Northwest China's Inner Mongolia area was 1972.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 135 yuan/ton, an increase of 52.5 yuan/ton from last week [27]. - Foreign prices: As of December 11, the CFR price at China's main ports was 246 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and China's main ports was 71 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from last week [32]. - Basis: As of December 11, the Zhengzhou methanol basis was 33.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.5 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3. Industry Chain Analysis Upstream - Coal and gas prices: As of December 10, the market price of Qinhuangdao 5500 - calorie thermal coal was 705 yuan/ton, the same as last week. As of December 11, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.23 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 1.1 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [39]. Industry - Production and operating rate: As of December 11, China's methanol production was 2039705 tons, an increase of 16240 tons from last week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 89.81%, a month - on - month increase of 0.81% [42]. - Inventory: As of December 10, the inventory of sample methanol producers in China was 35.28 tons, a decrease of 0.87 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%. The pending orders of sample enterprises were 20.75 tons, a decrease of 3.22 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 13.45%. The total port inventory was 123.44 tons, a decrease of 11.5 tons from the previous data [47]. - Imports and profits: In October 2025, China's methanol imports were 161.26 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.01%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative imports were 1127.93 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.10%. As of December 11, the methanol import profit was - 15.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.37 yuan/ton from last week [50]. Downstream - Operating rate: As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 90.20%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.68%. The MTO industry's operating rate declined due to plant maintenance [53]. - Profits: As of December 12, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 833 yuan/ton, a decrease of 89 yuan/ton from last week [56]. 4. Options Market Analysis No relevant information provided.

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-12甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：多空交织下预计本周甲醇市场维持震荡整理。内地方面，内地甲醇工厂暂无库存压力，但内地甲醇开工处 于高位水平，叠加内蒙大型甲醇项目计划再度重启，且部分上游工厂表现出强烈的出货意愿，供应端也暂无缺口。需求 来看，传统下游逐步进入需求淡季，但新增需求亮点显著：联泓新建45万吨/年烯烃装置计划在12月10日投产。同时， 冬季北方地区雨雪天气频发可能影响运输效率，销区下游企业为规避原料供应风险原料库存保持高位，但期补库需求仍 存，形成对价格的隐性支撑。港口方面，港口库存虽然延续小库但依旧高位，下游需求一般，浙江MTO装置 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The port inventory continued to decline, and the port basis strengthened. The reasons are delayed unloading and the flow back to the inland, but the arrival pressure in December is still high. The winter maintenance of Iranian plants has been implemented, but it will take time for the decline in future arrivals. Attention should be paid to the MTO maintenance plan of Ningbo Fude and the shipment volume from Iran. The continuous decline in coking coal and thermal coal prices has dragged down the coal - chemical sector [2]. - In the inland, the coal - based methanol production start - up rate is still higher than the same period. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of Yangmei MTO, the low - load operation of Luxi MTO, and the commissioning progress of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year. The start - up rate of traditional downstream industries has slightly increased, with acetic acid at a low level, formaldehyde slightly rebounding in the off - season, and MTBE at a high level [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Multiple figures are provided to show the methanol basis in different regions (such as methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (such as MA2605 - MA2609) [6][19] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, and the import price differences between different regions (such as Taicang - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, etc.) [24][25] 3. Methanol Start - up Rate, Inventory - The total port inventory of methanol, the start - up rate of MTO/P (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the start - up rate of methanol production in China are presented [32][38] 4. Regional Price Differences - The price differences between different regions are provided, such as the price differences between Lubei - Northwest, East China - Inner Mongolia, etc. [36][44] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - The production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan are shown [45][53] Market Data - **Inland Data**: The price of Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 465 yuan/ton, and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 575 yuan/ton. The prices and basis of methanol in different regions in the inland are given, along with the factory inventory and pending orders in the inland and the northwest [1]. - **Port Data**: The price of methanol in Taicang is 2078 yuan/ton, and the basis is 25 yuan/ton. The port inventory has decreased, and the downstream MTO start - up rate is 90.82%. The price differences between different regions are also provided [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: No strategy is provided [3]. - **Inter - period**: Expand the price difference between MA2605 - MA2609 when it is low [3]. - **Cross - variety**: Shrink the cross - variety price difference between LL2605 - 3*MA2605 when it is high [3].

Supply and Demand Data - Domestic operating rate is 76.19% (+0.45%), non-integrated operating rate is 68.26% (+0.61%), and international operating rate is 61.81% (+0.79%) [1] - MTO operating rate is 87.3% (+0.83%), with traditional downstream operating rates slightly increasing [1] - As of December 4, port inventory decreased by 79,700 tons [1] Market Insights - Methanol futures are experiencing low-level narrow fluctuations, with ongoing inventory exchange strategies and a continuous narrowing of price differentials throughout the month [1] - Domestic methanol supply has increased due to the restart of facilities, but profits from coal and gas-based production remain weak [1] - Winter fuel demand is providing support, while Iranian gas restrictions have led to multiple facility shutdowns, totaling 12.2 million tons of capacity [1] Shipping and Import Forecast - Iran is expected to ship 340,000 tons in December, with an estimated 700,000 to 800,000 tons still to be shipped [1] - January imports are projected to exceed 130,000 tons, with shipments slightly above expectations [1] Strategy Recommendations - The recommendation is to reduce positions in 05MTO due to decreased overseas operating rates and new downstream production [1] - Risk factors include an increase in warehouse receipts and accelerated shipments [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core View of the Report The supply of methanol in the domestic market remains abundant, with stable production profits in the inland region and a low probability of loss - induced production cuts this year. On the demand side, the methanol - to - olefins (MTO) plants at ports are operating stably without significant growth potential, and the operating rates of traditional downstream industries are seasonally declining, leading to weakening demand. The gas restriction in Iran has been postponed to mid - December, causing a delay in the decline of domestic imports until February next year. High inventory pressure persists at ports, and with the approaching delivery month of the 01 contract and full storage in mainstream delivery warehouses, it is difficult to resolve the high - inventory issue before the end of the 01 contract. Therefore, the 01 contract is expected to continue to decline [2][49][50]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Since September, the spot price of methanol in domestic port areas has been on a unilateral downward trend. From September to November, the decline of methanol futures prices accelerated, and the main 01 contract fell below 2,000 yuan/ton for the first time in five years due to high port inventories [7][8]. 2. Domestic Supply - **Coal - to - methanol profit and production**: Coal prices are oscillating at a high level. Although the profit of coal - to - methanol has narrowed, it remains at a high level. As of late November, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants was 87%, 4.3% higher than the same period last year, and the operating load in the northwest region was 85.64%, the same as last year [12][15]. - **Enterprise inventory and market support**: Due to factors such as maintenance and raw material supply shortages, some inland methanol plants have reduced production or shut down, resulting in a decrease in local supply and low enterprise inventories. As of November 19, the inventory of sample methanol production enterprises in China was 35.87 million tons, a 2.86% decrease from the previous period. The continuous external procurement by CTO in the northwest region supports the firmness of the auction prices of inland enterprises [17][20]. - **Coal price and production cut probability**: With an increase in coal production in major producing areas and sufficient supply, coal prices are expected to oscillate at a high level this year. The probability of loss - induced production cuts in the methanol industry is extremely low [21]. 3. Port Inventory - **Import volume**: From January to September 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 9.67 billion tons, a 3.9% year - on - year decrease. It is estimated that the imports in October were 1.45 billion tons, and the cumulative imports from January to October were 11.12 billion tons, a 1.5% decrease from last year. Based on the shipping volume in October, the imports in November are expected to exceed 1.5 billion tons, and the cumulative imports from January to November are expected to exceed 12.5 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of about 150 million tons. The imports in December are also expected to exceed 1.5 billion tons [25][26]. - **Iranian supply**: The Iranian methanol plants are operating stably, with a daily output of around 35,000 tons. The gas restriction in Iran has been postponed to mid - December, and the imports in December will remain high [31]. - **Inventory pressure**: Since October, the shipping speed from Iran has accelerated, and the downstream MTO has recovered, but the port inventory reduction is slow. As of November 19, the total port inventory was 1.48 billion tons, at a record high. The available circulating goods at ports are abundant, and port storage is tight [32][36]. 4. Demand - **MTO new installations**: There was no new MTO installation put into production in 2025. It is expected that 1.45 billion tons of new MTO installations will be put into production in the first quarter of 2026, while the 1 billion tons/year CTO integration project of Ningxia Baofeng and the 700 million tons/year CTO integration project of Shenhua Baotou Phase II are expected to be postponed to the fourth quarter [38][39]. - **MTO operating rate**: Although the MTO plants maintain a relatively high operating rate, affected by the low prices in the polyolefin market, enterprises' procurement willingness is cautious. The expected reduction in olefin demand makes it difficult to support the methanol market effectively. The overall MTO operating rate has remained high this year due to factors such as improved profit margins [42][44]. - **Traditional downstream demand**: The profits of traditional downstream industries such as MTBE, glacial acetic acid, and chlorides have shown a significant downward trend in the past five years, with some entering the loss - making range. The operating rates of some traditional downstream industries have declined seasonally. For example, the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is 5.33%, a 5% year - on - year decrease, and the operating rate of glacial acetic acid is 67.13%, a 25% year - on - year decrease [47]. 5. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Outlook**: The supply will remain abundant, demand will be weak, high inventory pressure will persist, and the 01 contract is expected to decline further [49][50]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions as the high - inventory pressure will cause methanol prices to continue to fall [3][51].