Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Views - Methanol overseas operating rates remain high, with significant subsequent arrival pressure. Xingxing MTO's maintenance for one month and MTO's route change due to maintenance have pushed up Jiangsu port inventories, keeping the port market weak. Inland coal - based methanol operating rates are still low but will gradually recover in early August. Traditional downstream demand shows some resilience, with inland factory inventories decreasing again, resulting in a stronger inland market compared to the port [2]. - The overall situation is an inland - strong and port - weak pattern [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, and basis between different regions' spot and main futures [6][8][10]. - It also shows inter - period spreads such as between methanol 01 and 05 futures contracts, 05 and 09 futures contracts, and 09 and 01 futures contracts [21][23]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures cover Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam, and CFR China [25][29][30]. 3. Methanol Operating Rates and Inventories - Information includes methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated) [33][35]. 4. Regional Price Differences - It shows price differences such as between Lubei and Northwest, East China and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and Lunan, and other regional combinations [37][47][49]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show production margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [53][57]. Strategies - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [3]. - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads on the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread when the spread is high [3]. - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread of PP2601 - 3MA2601 when the spread is high [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Report's Core View - The fundamentals of methanol 2509 show that the port market may be supported by coal reform in the short - term, but the expected concentrated import arrivals next week may limit the rise. The inland market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with high - temperature off - season and poor downstream profitability, but policies have a positive impact on the mentality of inland operators. It is expected that the inland methanol market will continue to be stable with a slight upward trend this week. Overall, it is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating in the range of 2390 - 2500 yuan/ton [5]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - Expected methanol price this week: It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate, and MA2509 will operate in the range of 2390 - 2500 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamental analysis of methanol 2509: The port market may be affected by coal reform and import arrivals; the inland market has a weak supply - demand situation. The base - difference shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price; the inventory in ports has decreased; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average; the main - force position is net short with a decrease in short positions [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely to be bullish**: Some device shutdowns such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xiye; decreased methanol production in Iran and low port inventory; the commissioning of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen and the planned commissioning of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong this month; external procurement of methanol by CTO plants in the Northwest [6]. - **Likely to be bearish**: The resumption of previously shut - down devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; expected concentrated vessel arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde entering the traditional off - season and a significant decline in MTBE operation; certain profit margins for coal - based methanol production and active sales; inventory accumulation in some producing - area factories due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot market**: The price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 665 yuan/ton, CFR China main port is 277 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 2445 yuan/ton. The prices in different domestic regions vary, such as 2407 yuan/ton in Jiangsu, 2230 yuan/ton in southern Shandong, etc. [8]. - **Futures market**: The futures closing price is 2419 yuan/ton, the registered warehouse receipts are 8834, and the effective forecast is 0. The base - difference is - 12 yuan/ton, and the import spread is 26 yuan/ton [8]. - **Spread structure**: The spread between Jiangsu and southern Shandong is 177 yuan/ton, and the spread between China and Southeast Asia is - 57 US dollars/ton [8]. - **Operating rate**: The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, with a decrease of 3.81% compared to the previous week. The operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, and the Southwest have also changed [8]. - **Inventory situation**: As of July 24, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 58.71 tons, with a decrease of 0.89 tons compared to the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 0.25 tons to 32.58 tons [5]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic methanol plant maintenance**: Multiple plants in different regions such as the Northwest, North China, East China, Southwest, and Northeast are in a state of maintenance, including planned maintenance, unplanned maintenance, and production reduction due to various reasons [57]. - **Foreign methanol plant operation**: Some plants in Iran are in the process of resuming production, and plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States have different operating conditions, including normal operation, low - level operation, and planned shutdowns [58]. - **Methanol - olefin plant operation**: Methanol - olefin plants in different regions have different operating conditions, including normal operation, maintenance, and shutdown. For example, some plants in the Northwest and East China are in normal operation, while some are in maintenance or have been shut down for a long time [59].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that methanol prices will mainly fluctuate this week, with MA2509 expected to trade in the range of 2390 - 2500 yuan/ton. The port methanol market may experience inventory accumulation, potentially limiting price increases, while the inland market is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend [4]. Summaries by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2509 show a neutral situation. The port market may see inventory build - up due to delayed imports, while the inland market is in a state of low supply and demand. The base price in Jiangsu indicates a premium for spot over futures. As of July 24, 2025, port inventories decreased, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average, but the main positions are net short with an increase in short positions [4]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Some domestic plants such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have stopped production, Iranian methanol production has decreased, port inventories are at a low level, new acetic acid plants have been put into operation, and there is a continuous expectation of external procurement from CTO plants in the northwest [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Some previously shut - down domestic plants like Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production, there is an expected concentration of vessel arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, MTBE operating rates have declined significantly, coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and active sales, and there is inventory accumulation in some production areas [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price data**: In the spot market, prices of some regions such as Fujian and Jiangsu have decreased, while prices in Hebei have increased. In the futures market, the closing price has decreased. The basis in Jiangsu has increased, and the import spread has also changed [8][9][11]. - **Operating rate data**: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol has decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, with significant decreases in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions [8]. - **Inventory data**: As of July 24, 2025, the total social inventory in East and South China ports was 58.71 tons, a decrease of 0.89 tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable inventory in coastal areas decreased by 0.25 tons to 32.58 tons [4]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic plants**: Many domestic methanol plants in regions such as Northwest, North, East, and Southwest are in a state of maintenance, including planned and unplanned maintenance, as well as production reduction and shutdown situations [55]. - **Foreign plants**: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or have uncertain operating conditions, while most plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally, with some undergoing planned maintenance [56]. - **Olefin plants**: Some domestic olefin plants are in normal operation, while some are in a state of maintenance or have uncertain restart times [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market is expected to be mainly volatile this week, with MA2509 trading in the range of 2,400 - 2,500 yuan/ton. The port market may continue to fluctuate within a range, and the inland market has certain support on the supply side. There is no prominent contradiction in the fundamentals, and industry players are cautiously optimistic about the future market [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Prompt - The port market may continue to fluctuate within a range due to factors such as stable import arrivals, additional inflow to social warehouses, and potential impacts from tariff and crude oil news. The inland market has weakened demand during the traditional high - temperature off - season, and most downstream products are in a loss state, but the supply side is supported by continuous external procurement by CTO plants in the northwest and multiple device overhauls [4]. - The basis of the 09 contract is 10, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing a neutral situation. As of July 24, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports decreased by 0.89 million tons compared to the previous period, and the overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 0.25 million tons to 32.58 million tons, which is a positive factor. The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the average line, also positive. However, the main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is a negative factor [4]. 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Positive factors**: Some devices have stopped production, the methanol production in Iran has decreased, the port inventory is at a low level, new acetic acid production capacity has been put into operation, and CTO plants in the northwest are continuously procuring methanol externally [6]. - **Negative factors**: Some previously stopped devices have resumed production, there will be concentrated vessel arrivals at the ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, MTBE production has declined significantly, coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling, and some factories in the production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot price**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2,490 yuan/ton. From July 18 to July 24, the spot price in Jiangsu increased by 3.48%, and the futures price increased by 4.86%. The basis decreased by 32 yuan/ton [4][9][11]. - **Cost and profit**: From July 18 to July 24, the profit of coal - based methanol increased by 55 yuan/ton, the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol increased by 33 yuan/ton. The production costs of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid all increased to varying degrees, while the spot prices remained unchanged, resulting in a decrease in profits [20][33][36][39]. - **Operating rate**: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions all decreased [8]. - **Inventory**: As of July 24, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports was 58.71 million tons, a decrease of 0.89 million tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 0.25 million tons to 32.58 million tons [4]. - **External market price**: From July 18 to July 24, the CFR price of methanol in China increased by 1.11%, and the CFR price in Southeast Asia remained unchanged. The price difference between China and Southeast Asia increased by 3 US dollars/ton [24]. 4. Overhaul Status - **Domestic devices**: Multiple domestic methanol production enterprises in the Northwest, North, East, and Southwest regions have carried out overhauls, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Ningxia Changyi, and others [55]. - **Foreign devices**: Some Iranian methanol production devices are in the process of restarting and recovery, and some devices in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally, while some are under maintenance [56]. - **Olefin devices**: Some olefin - producing enterprises in the Northwest, East, and other regions have carried out overhauls or have planned overhauls, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy [57].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term outlook for methanol is a weak and volatile trend. Considering valuation, upstream coal - based profits are still high, coastal MTO profits have recovered, but inland downstream profits are still poor and have room for improvement, making methanol relatively overvalued. In terms of drivers, there is a trend of increasing supply, decreasing demand, and inventory accumulation for methanol. If downstream MTO device maintenance is implemented, it will push the methanol price down. Even if it is not implemented, the current high raw material inventory of downstream MTO enterprises makes further inventory - building unlikely, and port inventory is likely to continue to increase, suppressing the spot price in East China. Therefore, it is recommended to short at high prices. The expected operating range of the 09 contract is 2300 - 2450, and shorting at high prices is recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices: MA01 closed at 2434 yuan/ton on July 16, 2025, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.86%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2361 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.71%); MA09 closed at 2367 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.80%) [1]. - Methanol spot prices: The spot price in Taicang was 2377.50 yuan/ton, down 7.50 yuan/ton (-0.31%); in Shandong, it was 2262.50 yuan/ton, up 7.50 yuan/ton (0.33%); in Guangdong, it was 2390.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan/ton (-0.21%); in Shaanxi, it was 2042.50 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan/ton (-0.12%); in Sichuan and Chongqing, it remained unchanged at 2175.00 yuan/ton; in Hubei, it remained unchanged at 2295.00 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it was 1972.50 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan/ton (-0.13%) [1]. - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was -56.50 yuan/ton, up 13.50 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Upstream Costs - Coal spot prices: The price of Bujiakesi Q5500 was 437.50 yuan/ton, up 5.00 yuan/ton (1.16%); the price of Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 502.50 yuan/ton; the price of Yulin Q6000 was 507.50 yuan/ton, up 5.00 yuan/ton (1.00%) [1]. - Industrial natural gas prices: The price in Hohhot remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter, and the price in Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.30 yuan/cubic meter [1]. 3.3 Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol production profit was 404.50 yuan/ton, down 6.30 yuan/ton (-1.53%); natural - gas - based methanol production profit remained unchanged at -590.00 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream profit: The profit of Northwest MTO was 434.20 yuan/ton, up 13.80 yuan/ton (3.28%); the profit of East China MTO was -674.57 yuan/ton, up 28.50 yuan/ton (4.05%); the profit of acetic acid was 314.70 yuan/ton, up 2.21 yuan/ton (0.71%); the profit of MTBE was 107.24 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan/ton (38.84%); the profit of formaldehyde remained unchanged at -238.80 yuan/ton; the profit of dimethyl ether remained unchanged at 466.00 yuan/ton [1]. 3.4 Important Information - Domestic futures price: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated and declined, opening at 2386 yuan/ton, closing at 2367 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 448911 lots and an open interest of 654082, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest. All contracts were traded during the trading day [1]. - Foreign information: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future is 270 - 279 US dollars/ton. Recently, a small number of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future were traded with an increase of 1.8%. In other Middle - East regions, the reference transaction price of shipments arriving in the far - future increased by 0.8 - 1% [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - The short - term trend of methanol is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short at high prices. The expected operating range of the 09 contract is 2300 - 2450, and shorting at high prices is recommended [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Methanol's unilateral driving force is limited. In terms of valuation, the profits of upstream raw materials are still high, while the comprehensive profits of downstream are relatively poor, and the valuation of methanol is relatively expensive. In terms of driving force, the current supply - demand driving force of methanol is not strong, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. The previous geopolitical conflict intensified the shortage of port mobile supply, causing the basis in the East China region to rise significantly. Now the geopolitical situation has eased, most Iranian plants have restarted, and with the replenishment of inland and South American supplies, the shortage of port spot has been alleviated, and the ports are gradually accumulating inventory. It is expected that the operating range of the 09 contract is 2300 - 2500. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and choose the opportunity to go long on MTO profits [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2463 yuan/ton on July 14, 2025, up 20 yuan/ton (0.82%) from July 11; MA05 closed at 2388 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.72%); MA09 closed at 2396 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (1.10%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the daily average price in Taicang was 2385 yuan/ton, up 17.5 yuan/ton (0.74%); in Shandong it was 2255 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.22%); in Guangdong it was 2395 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.21%); in Shaanxi it was 2042.5 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton (-0.61%); in Sichuan - Chongqing it was 2230 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.45%); in Hubei it was 2305 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia it was 1975 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.75%) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 78 yuan/ton on July 14, 2025, down 2.5 yuan/ton from July 11 [1] 2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the price of Ordos Q5500 was 430 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.58%); the price of Datong Q5500 was 497.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (2.05%); the price of Yulin Q6000 was 497.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan/ton (1.53%) [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the price in Hohhot was 3.94 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; the price in Chongqing was 3.30 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged [1] 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: On July 14, 2025, the profit of coal - to - methanol was 417.10 yuan/ton, down 6.30 yuan/ton (-1.49%); the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol was - 590 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - **MTO Profits**: The profit of Northwest MTO was 440.40 yuan/ton, up 37.60 yuan/ton (9.33%); the profit of East China MTO was - 682.07 yuan/ton, down 32.50 yuan/ton (-5.00%) [1] - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: The profit of acetic acid was 343.03 yuan/ton, down 44.02 yuan/ton (-11.37%); the profit of MTBE was 45.44 yuan/ton, up 61.80 yuan/ton (377.75%); the profit of formaldehyde was - 238.80 yuan/ton, unchanged; the profit of a certain product (erquge) was 466.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan/ton (-9.69%) [1] 4. Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated in a narrow range, opening at 2369 yuan/ton, closing at 2396 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 724,589 lots and an open interest of 655,520 lots, with increased volume and decreased open interest. All contracts had trading during the trading day [1] - **Foreign Information**: Today, the reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol cargoes arriving in the far - month is 270 - 279 US dollars/ton, and there is currently a lack of bid and transaction information. For other regions in the Middle East, the reference negotiation price of far - month arriving cargoes is +0.5 - 1.5%, and the recent transactions of far - month arriving cargoes are at +0.85 - 1% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is expected that methanol prices will mainly fluctuate this week. The port methanol is in a multi - empty game and will fluctuate, while the inland methanol is expected to move sideways. Attention should be continuously paid to port inventory, olefin external procurement, and macro - related news [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - For methanol 2509, the port has a risk of inventory accumulation due to inland inflow and concentrated imports, but there is macro - support. The inland has no supply pressure due to device maintenance, but downstream losses and high inventory of users limit price increases. The expected price range for MA2509 is 2350 - 2420 yuan/ton [5]. - The basis shows that the spot price in Jiangsu is 2430 yuan/ton, with a basis of 32 for the 09 contract, indicating that the spot is at a premium to the futures [5]. - As of July 10, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 56.76 tons, an increase of 6.79 tons from the previous period. The available circulating supply in coastal areas increased by 3.65 tons to 31.29 tons [5]. - The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the moving average [5]. - The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing [5]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Concerns - **Positive factors**: Some devices are shut down, Iranian methanol production is reduced, port inventory is low, new acetic acid devices are put into operation, and northwest CTO plants purchase methanol externally [6]. - **Negative factors**: Some previously shut - down devices have resumed operation, there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde is in the off - season, MTBE production has declined, coal - to - methanol has profit and is actively selling, and some factories in production areas have inventory accumulation [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: The spot price of methanol in different regions has changed. For example, in Jiangsu, it decreased by 2.25% week - on - week to 2390 yuan/ton. The futures closing price increased by 26 yuan/ton to 2398 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and various spreads have also changed. For example, the basis of the 09 contract is 32, and the import spread decreased by 27 yuan/ton [5][8]. - **Operating Rate**: The weighted average national operating rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in different regions such as Shandong and the Southwest have also decreased [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East and South China ports has increased, and the available circulating supply in coastal areas has also increased [5]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of coal - to - methanol decreased by 38 yuan/ton, the profit of natural gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at - 120 yuan/ton, and the profit of coke oven gas - to - methanol decreased by 10 yuan/ton [15]. - **Traditional Downstream Products**: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have decreased to varying degrees. Their production profits and loads have also changed [28][32][35][39]. - **MTO**: The MTO production profit increased by 176 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.15% to 79.84% [44]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic**: Many domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, including those in the Northwest, North China, East China, Southwest, and Northeast regions, with different maintenance reasons and durations [54]. - **Overseas**: Iranian methanol plants are in the process of resuming production, and some plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia and Malaysia are operating normally [55].

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, production adjustments, and seasonal demand changes, leading to a complex supply-demand dynamic. Group 1: Price Movements - Following the geopolitical conflict in Iran, methanol futures surged to 2600 yuan/ton but have since retreated to around 2400 yuan/ton after the conflict eased [1] - In late June, methanol spot prices jumped due to tight port supplies and low inventories, while futures prices remained stable, leading to a divergence between spot and futures markets [2] Group 2: Production and Supply - Methanol production remains high, with several long-term idled plants restarting operations due to favorable production margins, including facilities from Qinghai Salt Lake and Hualu Hengrui [2] - Despite high production margins, some gas-based methanol plants are still operating at a loss, with losses nearing 200 yuan/ton [3] - Iranian methanol plants are gradually restarting after a ceasefire, with several facilities resuming operations, although some face operational challenges [4] Group 3: Import and Logistics - New regulations limiting older vessels from docking at certain ports may complicate logistics and increase costs for methanol imports from Iran [5] - The recent recovery in methanol import profits is expected to boost import volumes, although low Iranian inventories may delay the return to normal shipping levels [4] Group 4: Demand Dynamics - The traditional downstream sector is facing a seasonal downturn, with processing profits remaining below breakeven levels, leading to reduced demand expectations for methanol [8] - Despite some recovery in production margins for MTO (Methanol-to-Olefins) plants, many are still operating below cash flow breakeven, indicating potential future reductions in operating rates [9] Group 5: Inventory Levels - Current methanol inventories are at structurally low levels, with total production enterprise inventories at 35.23 million tons and main port inventories at 67.37 million tons [10] - The combination of rising import expectations and upcoming maintenance schedules for coastal olefin plants may lead to fluctuations in port inventories [10] Group 6: Market Outlook - The methanol market is expected to experience limited upward or downward movement, with a focus on the operational status of Iranian methanol plants and downstream demand for high-priced methanol [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market shows a mixed picture with both bullish and bearish factors. In the short - term, port methanol is expected to fluctuate due to the potential inventory build - up and macro - level support. Inland methanol is likely to move sideways due to balanced supply and demand and profit - related issues in the downstream. Overall, the methanol price is expected to oscillate this week, with MA2509 trading in the range of 2340 - 2410 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Port methanol may face inventory build - up risk with incoming imports, but there is macro - level support. Inland methanol has supply support from plant maintenance, but downstream profitability issues and high user inventories limit price increases. The market is expected to be neutral, and factors like port inventory, olefin procurement, and macro news need continuous monitoring [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2400 yuan/ton, and the basis for the 09 contract is 28, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: As of June 26, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 53.41 tons, a cumulative increase of 8.46 tons from the previous period. The available circulating supply in coastal areas increased by 4.61 tons to 29.34 tons, which is a bullish factor [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, but the price is below the moving average, showing a neutral trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The methanol price is expected to oscillate this week, with MA2509 trading between 2340 - 2410 [4]. 3.2 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: Some domestic plants are shut down; Iranian methanol production has decreased; port inventory is at a low level; new acetic acid plants are in operation or planned; and some CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production; there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde market is in the off - season; MTBE production has declined; coal - based methanol has profit margins and is actively sold; and some factories in production areas have inventory build - up due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Various domestic spot prices of methanol have different trends, with some decreasing. The futures closing price also decreased slightly. The basis has decreased. The opening rates in different regions have generally declined, and the inventory in East and South China ports has decreased [8][9][11]. - **Profit Margins**: Coal - based methanol has a certain profit, while natural gas - based methanol has a loss, and coke - oven gas - based methanol has a relatively high profit. The profit margins of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have different degrees of decline [21][30][34]. - **External Market Prices**: CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia prices have decreased, and the price difference has changed slightly [25]. - **Import Profit Margins**: The import cost has decreased slightly, and the import profit margin has decreased [27]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants in different regions are under maintenance, including those in the northwest, north, east, southwest, and northeast. The maintenance periods and reasons vary, such as planned maintenance, equipment failures, and limited gas supply [54]. - **Foreign Plants**: Iranian plants are in the process of resuming production, while some plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally, and some are under maintenance [55].

| | | 约短线预计在2370-2430区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2373 | -19 甲醇9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -47 | -4 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 694298 | 8589 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -120434 | -22373 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 8720 | 95 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日, ...