| | | 甲醇日评20251124:短期供需压力难解,关注预期变动 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 单位 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/20 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 元/吨 | 2004.00 | 2016.00 | -12.00 | -0.60% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 元/吨 | 2138.00 | 2153.00 | -15.00 | -0.70% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 元/吨 | 2201.00 | 2210.00 | -9.00 | -0.41% | | | | 太仓 元/吨 | 1995.00 | 2002.50 | -7.50 | -0.37% | | | | 山东 元/吨 | 2150.00 | 2155.00 | -5.00 | -0.23% | | 期现价格 | | 元/吨 广东 | 1995.00 | 1995.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 及基差 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The port price of methanol remains weak, with port inventory falling from its high for the first time and flowing back to the inland. The key lies in whether the inland can absorb the impact of the port's backflow. The fundamentals are still weak, and the key is when the winter maintenance in Iran will be implemented [3]. - The inventory of inland factories has slightly decreased. The MTO of Yangmei is under maintenance, and Luxi MTO is operating at a low load. Attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong [4]. - In the traditional downstream, the acetic acid and formaldehyde industries are operating at low loads, while only the MTBE industry has a relatively high operating rate. The methanol price is also affected by the decline in the coking coal futures price [4]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - The report shows multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) against the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [8][12][23] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures are presented for Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import price differences (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China) [27][28][36] III. Methanol Operation and Inventory - The report provides data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones) [37][38][40] IV. Regional Price Differences - Multiple regional price differences are shown, such as the price differences between Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [42][49][52] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Information about the production profits of traditional downstream industries is provided, including the production profits of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [53][60][62]

甲醇日报 | 2025-11-20 港口回流内地，港口库存高位回落 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润573元/吨（+10）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线1978元/吨（+10），内蒙北线基差565元/吨（+27），内蒙南线1920元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2140元/吨（+0）， 鲁南基差327元/吨（+17）；河南2000元/吨（-15），河南基差187元/吨（+2）；河北2075元/吨（+0），河北基差322 元/吨（+17）。隆众内地工厂库存358700吨（-10550），西北工厂库存188500吨（-17000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单 246320吨（+920），西北工厂待发订单125400吨（+8900）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇1997元/吨（-5），太仓基差-16元/吨（+12），CFR中国234美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差-46元/ 吨（-10），常州甲醇2235元/吨；广东甲醇1990元/吨（-20），广东基差-23元/吨（-3）。隆众港口总库存1479340吨 （-64260），江苏港口库存819300吨（-17300） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The short - term judgment on methanol is low - level oscillation. The current methanol valuation is at a relatively low level. It is not recommended to continue short - selling from the valuation perspective. The upward driving force is limited, mainly due to the less - than - expected winter gas restriction in Iran and high inventory of MTO enterprises [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Profit Data - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased from 2055 yuan/ton to 2029 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.27%; MA05 decreased from 2163 yuan/ton to 2145 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.83%; MA09 decreased from 2202 yuan/ton to 2200 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.09% [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in most regions decreased, with Shaanxi having the largest decline of 2.06% from 1945 yuan/ton to 1905 yuan/ton [1] - **Profit Situations**: Coal - to - methanol and natural - gas - to - methanol profits remained unchanged. Northwest MTO profit decreased by 11.60%, while East China MTO profit increased by 15.27%. Acetic acid profit increased by 3.07%, and MTBE profit decreased by 16.99% [1] 2. Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 weakened, opening at 2049 yuan/ton, closing at 2029 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 1178856 lots and open interest of 1497531, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: In a Middle - Eastern country, 11 methanol plants maintained their existing load, with an average operating load of 76.82%. As of November 16, the total methanol loading volume this month was 575000 tons [1] 3. Market Analysis - The supply expectation has pushed down the spot prices, especially in coastal areas. The upward driving force for methanol is limited due to less - than - expected winter gas restriction in Iran and high inventory of MTO enterprises [1] 4. Trading Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [1]

2025-11-18甲醇早报 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：需求暂无亮点以及供应压力犹存，预计本周国内甲醇市场震荡整理为主。内地方面，产区尤其是内蒙北线 甲醇工厂库存紧张，加之当前价格整体处于底部空间，多数贸易商做空谨慎对价格有支撑作用。但同时，内地甲醇开工 处于高位，区域间货源流通活跃，进口货源倒流入鲁南外甚至部分流入鲁北，供应仍然充裕，但销区需求支撑一般，贸 易商暂未有持货意愿，预计本周内地行情僵持整理。港口方面，基本面来看，暂时注入海外供应减量的锚点，市场心态 有所转变，但实质上缺乏反转上行的支撑条件，预计本周港口甲醇市场或底部偏强震荡等待反弹契机，关注伊朗装置 ...

| | | 甲醇日评20251117: 库存压力仍存,沿海现货偏弱 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 指标 | 单位 | 2025/11/14 | 2025/11/13 | | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2055.00 | 2103.00 | -48.00 | -2.28% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2163.00 | 2208.00 | -45.00 | -2.04% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2202.00 | 2231.00 | -29.00 | -1.30% | | | | 太仓 | 元/呼 | 2045.00 | 2067.50 | -22.50 | -1.09% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2180.00 | 2187.50 | -7.50 | -0.34% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2055.00 | 2075.00 ...

每经AI快讯，11月14日，甲醇期货主力连续合约跌2.02%，报2039元(人民币)/吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The high inventory pressure on methanol is increasing, and its downward trend is accelerating. The coal price has rebounded continuously during the coal demand peak season, with the domestic supply remaining ample. The international methanol plant operating rate has increased, and imports have recovered. The downstream demand is stable, but the port inventory continues to accumulate. In the context of high inventory, methanol is expected to continue its downward trend [4]. - Trading strategies include holding short positions for unilateral trading, adopting a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and selling call options in the over - the - counter market [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Raw material coal**: As of November 14, the coal mine operating rates in Ordos and Yulin regions are 71% and 44% respectively. The coal mines have resumed production, and the daily coal output in these two regions is around 4 million tons. The demand is strong, and the pit - mouth price has been rising continuously [4]. - **Supply side**: The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 320 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate remains high and stable, with the domestic supply being continuously abundant [4]. - **Import side**: The US dollar price is dropping rapidly, and the import premium has widened. All Iranian plants are operating normally, the non - Iranian operating rate has slightly increased, and the overseas operating rate has returned to a high level. The European and American markets have rebounded slightly, the price difference between China and Europe has narrowed, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran has loaded 540,000 tons in November, and the concessionary tender transactions are still poor, with a large amount of non - Iranian supplies [4]. - **Demand side**: The operating rate of MTO plants has rebounded. Some MTO plants are operating stably, while some are operating at partial loads. The overall downstream demand is stable [4]. - **Inventory side**: The port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is relatively strong; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated within a narrow range. However, with the increase in imports and a slight decline in MTO operating rate, the port inventory continues to accumulate [4]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of November 13, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load is 76.54%, a 0.45 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 1.83 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operating load is 68.74%, a 0.61 - percentage - point increase from last week [5]. - **Supply - International**: From November 1 to November 7, 2025, the international (excluding China) methanol output is 1,050,609 tons, an increase of 19,750 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate is 72.02%, a 1.35% increase [5]. - **Supply - Import**: As of November 12, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol is 451,800 tons [5]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of November 13, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 83.65%, a 0.68 - percentage - point increase from last week. The national olefin plant operating rate is 90.24%, and the olefin industry operating rate continues to decline [5]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and formaldehyde are 5.33% (a 1.11% month - on - month decrease), 67.13%, and 41.42% respectively. The overall capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde has decreased compared to last week [5]. - **Demand - Direct sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region is 88,800 tons, a 271.55% increase from the previous statistical date [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprises**: The inventory of production enterprises is 369,300 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons from the previous period. The order backlog of sample enterprises is 245,400 tons, a 10.99% increase from the previous period [5]. - **Inventory - Ports**: As of November 12, 2025, the total port inventory is 1,543,600 tons, an increase of 56,500 tons from the previous period [5]. - **Valuation**: The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is around 390 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi is 322 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has narrowed, and the basis has remained stable [5]. - **Spot prices**: The price in Taicang is 2040 yuan/ton (- 60), and in the northern line is 1980 yuan/ton (- 10) [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The report anticipates that the domestic methanol market will continue to operate weakly in the short - term. Inland, multiple olefin plants plan to undergo maintenance in November, traditional downstream acetic acid has low operation, and a large methanol - to - hydrogen plant in northern Shandong has stopped for maintenance, resulting in significant negative impacts on demand. With high domestic methanol operation levels and low inventory at upstream methanol plants, they are mainly focused on shipping. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease in the short - term. However, considering the current low methanol prices, cautious short - selling by traders supports the bottom price, and the expected decline is limited. In the port area, under the suppression of high overseas supply expectations and high port inventory, the port methanol market is expected to continue its weak decline this week. The report predicts that the methanol price will fluctuate weakly this week, with MA2601 expected to trade between 2075 - 2130 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - **Methanol 2601**: - **Fundamentals**: With the expectation of weakening fundamentals, domestic methanol is expected to continue its weak operation in the short - term. Port methanol is also expected to decline weakly. Although the price is low, the bottom is supported, and the decline is expected to be limited. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2100 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 3 for the 01 contract, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 127.90 million tons, an increase of 1.29 million tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 3.97 million tons to 76.59 million tons. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions. - **Expectation**: The methanol price is expected to fluctuate weakly this week, with MA2601 trading between 2075 - 2130 [4]. 2. Long - Short Focus - **Positive Factors**: Some plants have stopped production, Iranian methanol operation has decreased, port inventory is at a low level, new acetic acid production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Some previously stopped plants have resumed production, there is a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month, formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, MTBE operation has declined significantly, coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively shipping, and some plants in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor shipping [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price**: The prices of various methanol products in the spot and futures markets, as well as their price changes and spreads, are presented. For example, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2072 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price is 2103 yuan/ton. - **Operation Rate**: The weighted average national operation rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operation rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have also changed to varying degrees. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East China ports increased by 1.53 million tons to 80.33 million tons, while the inventory in South China ports decreased by 2.24 million tons to 47.57 million tons. - **Production Profit**: The production profits of different methanol production processes (coal - based, natural gas - based, and coke oven gas - based) have different trends. For example, the profit of coal - based methanol decreased by 5 yuan/ton, the profit of natural gas - based methanol remained unchanged, and the profit of coke oven gas - based methanol increased by 323 yuan/ton. - **Downstream Product Data**: The prices, production profits, and operation rates of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTO have also been analyzed. For example, the production profit of formaldehyde decreased by 9 yuan/ton, and the operation rate increased by 0.01% [8][21][19]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Multiple domestic methanol plants are in various maintenance states, including planned maintenance, unplanned maintenance, and temporary shutdowns due to failures or limited gas supply. For example, Shaanxi Heimaotou's 100,000 - ton/year coke oven gas - based methanol plant has been shut down for maintenance since the beginning of November 2024, and the end date is to be determined [56]. - **Overseas Plants**: Some overseas methanol plants are also in different operation states, including normal operation, resumption after maintenance, and planned shutdowns. For example, QAFAC in Qatar was under maintenance from the end of February to March 16 [57]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants are undergoing maintenance or have production plans. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's 700,000 - ton/year olefin plant and its 1.8 - million - ton/year methanol plant stopped for maintenance on March 15, with an expected duration of 45 days [58].

甲醇产业日报 2025-11-13 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2103 | -5 甲醇1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -105 | -2 -3501 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 1382831 | -24489 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -254452 | | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 11709 | 890 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2070 | 5 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1992.5 | 0 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 72.5 | 15 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -33 | 10 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 242 | 2 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 322 | 0 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 266 | -2 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/吨) | - ...