旅游及景区 旅游及景区 2026 年 01 月 28 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 38% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 旅游及景区 沪深300 相关研究报告 海南专题报告：风宜长物放眼量，自贸港赶海正当时 风险提示：宏观经济波动风险、政策落地不及预期、高端消费复苏不及预期。 ——行业深度报告 | 初敏（分析师） | 叶彬慧（联系人） | | --- | --- | | chumin@kysec.cn | yebinhui@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522080008 | 证书编号：S0790124070053 | yebinhui@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124070053 海南自贸港：双向循环战略支点，枢纽功能徐徐演进 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 海南自贸港是中央基于全球化格局深度调整、全球供应链加速重构背景，高标准 建设的中国特色自由贸易港，享有国内高规格、系统性的开放试验授权。对比全 球成熟的自贸港枢纽，依托内地超大规模统一市场的腹地优势和最大经济特区禀 赋，海南聚焦打造三大核心定位： ...

Core Insights - Hainan's duty-free sales account for over 8% of the global duty-free market, with the Boao Lecheng International Medical Tourism Pilot Zone receiving 865,000 medical tourists, and the Lingshui Li'an International Education Innovation Pilot Zone gathering 26 renowned domestic and international universities [1][3] Group 1: Duty-Free Shopping - Hainan's duty-free shopping is a key attraction for tourism, with a new policy set to be implemented on November 1, 2025, which is expected to boost the sector [3] - In the first month after the island's customs closure, Hainan's duty-free sales reached 5.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.8% [3] - The Hainan provincial government aims to enhance the variety of products offered by duty-free entities and support more quality merchants in conducting outbound tax refund businesses [3] Group 2: Medical Tourism - The Lecheng Pilot Zone, as China's only "medical special zone," has introduced 540 licensed medical products and 39 medical institutions, with projected medical revenue of 8.39 billion yuan by 2025 [3][4] - In the past year, over 9,300 foreign patients from 14 countries visited the Lecheng Pilot Zone for medical treatment, with a sixfold increase in foreign patient numbers following the customs closure [3][4] - The zone has developed 23 specialized medical tourism routes and upgraded its service system, including the establishment of the first wholly foreign-owned hospital in Hainan [4] Group 3: Education Sector - Hainan is promoting the "Study in Hainan = Study Abroad" brand, with the Lingshui Li'an International Education Innovation Pilot Zone implementing a "big sharing + small college" model [5] - The goal is to reach a student and teacher scale of 10,000 by the 2025 academic year, with plans for further expansion [5] - Currently, 86 countries' citizens can enter Hainan visa-free, contributing to a projected 1.5 million inbound tourists by 2025, a 35.2% increase [5] Group 4: Future Prospects - Hainan's consumption market potential continues to be released, with government plans to boost consumption and expand the supply of quality goods and services [6] - The province aims to support various economic sectors, including the silver economy and night economy, while promoting marine tourism activities [6] - A projected 8% increase in domestic and international tourist arrivals is anticipated [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that China Duty Free Group (CDFG) is acquiring DFS in Greater China and deepening strategic cooperation with LVMH, indicating a strong market position in tourism retail [1] - CDFG is positioned as a leader in the tourism retail market, benefiting from the high demand for duty-free sales following the closure of Hainan Free Trade Port, with relevant policies being introduced to support growth [1] - The report anticipates a turning point in the fourth quarter for offshore duty-free sales, which have faced challenges in the first three quarters, leading to an adjustment in profit expectations for the company [1] Group 2 - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is estimated to be 3.87 billion, 5.22 billion, and 5.81 billion yuan respectively, revised from previous estimates of 4.33 billion, 5.00 billion, and 5.52 billion yuan [1] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are expected to be 50, 37, and 33 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [1] - The investment rating for the company remains at "Buy" [1]

据悉，接下来，海口海关将持续以制度集成创新为核心，以智慧海关建设为支撑，提升监管效能与服务 品质，以智慧化手段护航离岛免税产业高质量发展。 一个多月来，面对海南自由贸易港建设带来的发展机遇，各大免税主体迅速响应，围绕香化品、黄金、 钟表等13类热门免税品开展促销活动。从品牌专享4.5折优惠、限时闪购到多倍积分兑换等，各类促销 活动都精准对接消费者需求。部分免税店还推出政府消费券满减活动，进一步激发旅客消费热情。 海免海口美兰机场免税店引入数码摄像和电子乐器新品类，推出"美兰买金、保你放心"金饰销售活动。 中免海南公司联动国际品牌，举办"封关启航 中免献礼"主题促销。各项活动涵盖品类丰富、优惠力度 较大，吸引大量游客打卡消费。 为优化购物体验，海口海关以智慧监管为引擎，从商品入库到旅客提货，构建了一套全链条、智能化、 高效率的海关监管服务模式。依托大数据平台和"集中+自动"审单系统，实现免税品"即到即报、即审即 放"，显著节约企业时间与物流成本，为封关平稳运行提供了有力保障。 （来源：工人日报） 本报讯 （记者赖书闻 通讯员陈思筠 吕琳彬）海南自由贸易港封关首月，离岛免税市场交出亮眼答卷。 据海口海关统计，自2 ...

面对海南自由贸易港建设带来的发展机遇，各大免税主体迅速响应，围绕香化品、黄金、钟表等13类热 门免税品开展促销活动。从品牌专享4.5折优惠、限时闪购到多倍积分兑换等，各类促销活动都精准对 接消费者需求。部分免税店还推出政府消费券满减活动，进一步激发旅客消费强劲动能。记者 畅凯 通 讯员 陈思筠 吕琳彬 本报讯 海南自由贸易港封关首月，离岛免税市场也交出了一份亮眼答卷。据海口海关统计，自2025年 12月18日至2026年1月18日，海口海关共监管离岛免税购物金额50.2亿元，同比增长46.8%；购物人数 77.2万人次，同比增长29.7%；购物件数362.1万件，同比增长14.3%。消费者购物热情高涨，充分展现 出离岛免税市场的澎湃活力。 ...

Core Insights - The Hainan Free Trade Port has seen significant growth in duty-free shopping since its full operation began a month ago, with a notable increase in both the number of shoppers and total spending [2][4][6] Group 1: Duty-Free Shopping Growth - From December 18, 2025, to January 17, 2026, the number of duty-free shoppers reached 745,000, with total spending amounting to 4.86 billion yuan, marking year-on-year increases of 30.2% and 46.8% respectively [2] - Daily averages indicate approximately 24,000 shoppers and 160 million yuan in spending, highlighting the popularity of duty-free shopping among both tourists and local residents [2][4] Group 2: Consumer Experience and Product Range - The introduction of new product categories, including pet supplies, has enhanced the shopping experience, making duty-free stores more appealing to local consumers [3][9] - The shopping behavior is shifting from bulk purchasing to experience-oriented shopping, with consumers increasingly engaging in interactive shopping environments [4][6] Group 3: Competitive Pricing and Sales Performance - The price advantage of duty-free gold jewelry has attracted significant consumer interest, with price differences of up to 168 yuan per gram compared to mainland prices, leading to increased sales [5] - Sales data from January 1 indicates that offline and online sales exceeded 300 million yuan in a single day, reflecting the effectiveness of service upgrades and policy implementation [6][7] Group 4: Future Prospects and Seasonal Promotions - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to drive further sales, with promotional events planned to attract consumers, including special offers and entertainment [10] - The duty-free sector is preparing for increased demand by stocking popular products in anticipation of the holiday shopping season [10]

Domestic News - In 2025, China's GDP is projected to reach 140,187.9 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.0% year-on-year at constant prices. The primary industry is expected to contribute 93.3 billion yuan with a growth of 3.9%, the secondary industry 499.7 billion yuan with a growth of 4.5%, and the tertiary industry 808.9 billion yuan with a growth of 5.4% [1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) is forecasted to be 485.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% compared to the previous year. Excluding real estate development investment, the decline is 0.5%. Per capita disposable income is expected to be 43,377 yuan, with a nominal growth of 5.0% and an actual growth of 5.0% after adjusting for price factors. The total retail sales of consumer goods are projected to be 501.2 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 3.7% [1] Real Estate Market - In December 2025, the sales prices of commercial residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities showed an overall month-on-month decline, with first-tier cities experiencing a 0.3% decrease in new residential property prices and a 0.9% decrease in second-hand residential property prices. Year-on-year, new residential property prices in first-tier cities fell by 1.7%, while second-hand prices dropped by 7.0% [2] International News - The international prices of gold and silver reached historical highs due to the U.S. government's imposition of tariffs on certain European countries. Gold prices exceeded $4,690 per ounce, and silver prices surpassed $94 per ounce [4] - European automotive stocks plummeted following President Trump's threat to impose tariffs on eight European countries, with significant declines in major manufacturers such as Mercedes-Benz (down 6.7%), BMW (down 7%), and Volkswagen (down 5.4%). Luxury goods stocks also fell, with LVMH down nearly 4% and Richemont down over 3% [4]

Core Insights - The Hainan Free Trade Port has fully implemented its closure policies, including "zero tariffs," tax exemptions for processing and value-added goods, and relaxed trade management measures, significantly enhancing its attractiveness for investment and trade [3][5]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The "zero tariff" policy has been expanded, with 30 entities importing zero-tariff goods worth 750 million yuan, covering 37 product categories, primarily including crude oil and mineral products [5]. - The processing and value-added tax exemption policy has shown significant effects, with 30 companies exporting goods worth 85.87 million yuan, resulting in a tax exemption of 3.318 million yuan, mainly in the chemical, medical, and food sectors [5]. - Trade management measures have been relaxed, allowing for breakthroughs in the import of bonded maintenance goods valued at 347,000 yuan [5]. Group 2: Consumer Activity - The demand for duty-free shopping has surged, with the total amount of duty-free shopping monitored by customs reaching 4.86 billion yuan, with 745,000 shoppers and 3.494 million items purchased, reflecting increases of 95.2%, 57.4%, and 68.6% respectively [5]. - The sales of electronic consumer products have become a major driver, with sales reaching 22.74 million yuan, catering to diverse shopping needs [5]. - The new "immediate purchase and pick-up" policy has led to shopping amounts of 28.87 million yuan from local residents, marking a 28.2% increase [5]. Group 3: Economic Activity - The release of policy benefits has boosted market confidence, with the number of approved entities enjoying "zero tariffs" reaching 10,038 and 112 companies registered for processing and value-added tax exemptions [5]. - A total of 5,132 new foreign trade enterprises have been registered, including 113 new foreign-invested companies, marking a historic milestone with over 100,000 registered enterprises [5]. - Preliminary statistics indicate that Hainan's total foreign trade import and export value has exceeded 27 billion yuan [5].

Core Insights - The Hainan Free Trade Port has successfully completed its first month of operation since its closure on December 18, 2025, attracting a significant number of foreign trade enterprises [1][4] - The customs authority reported a total of 5,132 new registered foreign trade enterprises in Hainan as of January 17, 2026, indicating a strong interest in the region [1][4] - The customs has streamlined the approval process for enterprises, reducing the average approval time by nearly 60% [1][4] Trade and Economic Impact - In the first month of operation, customs monitored zero-tariff goods worth 750 million yuan, benefiting local enterprises, hospitals, and research institutions [1][4] - The customs also oversaw the export of value-added goods worth 85.867 million yuan to the mainland, enhancing the local industry chain and increasing added value [1][4] Duty-Free Market Performance - The duty-free shopping market in Hainan reported a total shopping amount of 4.86 billion yuan in the first month, representing a year-on-year increase of 46.8% [2][5] - The number of shoppers reached 745,000, marking a 30.2% increase, while the number of items purchased was 3.494 million, up by 14.6% [2][5] - Hainan's customs also recorded 311,000 inbound and outbound travelers through the airport, reflecting a 48.8% year-on-year growth [2][5]

Group 1 - The Hainan Free Trade Port has seen significant growth in duty-free shopping, with 745,000 visitors and a total spending of 4.86 billion yuan from December 18, 2025, to January 17, 2026, representing year-on-year increases of 30.2% and 46.8% respectively [1] - The establishment of a new direct flight route from Prague to Sanya has improved accessibility, with the first seventh freedom passenger route operating regularly for nearly a month [1] - The border inspection authorities in Hainan have processed 186,000 foreign travelers since the full closure operation began, marking a 46% increase year-on-year, with visa-free foreign visitors accounting for 93% of total inbound travelers [1] Group 2 - The Haikou National High-tech Zone is enhancing its business environment, with companies like Shenzhen KAILI Biomedical Technology Co., Ltd. benefiting from a tax-free maintenance policy that is expected to reduce overall costs by 20% to 30% [2] - A total of 5,132 new foreign trade enterprises were registered in Hainan from December 18, 2025, to January 17, 2026, equivalent to the quarterly registration number for 2024 [2] - The average daily duty-free shopping in Hainan has reached 24,000 visitors and a daily spending of approximately 160 million yuan, highlighting the effectiveness of the new policies during the peak tourist season [2]