人员流动量同比增长10.5%，民航和铁路旅客量分别约同比增长8.2%和13%。2026年春节假期(2月17 日-2月23日，初一到初七)，全社会跨区域人员流动量约23.23亿人次，同比去年春节同期增长约10.5%， 同比2019年同期增长约32.6%。其中铁路发送旅客9937.8万人次(+13.0%);水路发送旅客1104.2万人次 (+25.0%);民航发送旅客1776.2万人次(+8.2%);公路人员流动量21.95亿人次(+9.5%)。 海南免税 智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，春节期间国内收入及人次均增长显著，且创历史新高，出入 境增速略低于大盘但较往年有小幅度增长，整体旅游数据超预期。2026年春节假日期间，得益于超长假 期带动休闲旅游需求集中释放，酒店行业量价齐升态势明显，离岛免税消费活力凸显，出境游增速低于 大盘，但相较去年仍有提升。高线城市及旅游城市客流延续稳步增长，山岳景区与演艺项目频创新高， 县域旅游迎来爆发式增长。旅游产业链上，推荐关注休闲需求驱动的酒店，具备外部交通条件催化与内 生优化的区域性景区，出境游及出行人次相关性较强的OTA。 招商证券主要观点如下： 整体情况 国内旅游 ...

Group 1: Free Trade Port Development - Hainan Free Trade Port is positioned as a strategic hub for dual circulation, leveraging the vast domestic market and special economic zone advantages to create a supply chain center, offshore trade service center, and high-end industrial cluster by December 2025 [1][9] - The tax reform is a core driver, with zero tariff items expanding to 6,600, covering 74% of goods, and the processing value-added policy lowering entry barriers for industries like medical devices and high-end manufacturing [1][9] - The implementation of six facilitation measures aims to eliminate barriers to cross-border flow of factors, promoting offshore trade, headquarters economy, and digital economy, with the digital economy's core industry revenue expected to exceed 230 billion yuan by 2025 [1] Group 2: Duty-Free Industry Insights - The duty-free industry is at a new cycle starting point, with a recovery inflection point expected in 2025 after supply-demand adjustments from 2022 to 2024 [2][9] - New policies in November expanded product categories and customer source restrictions, leading to a sales increase of 50.2 billion yuan in the first month post-closure, a 46.8% year-on-year growth [2][9] - Long-term prospects for the industry are supported by the construction of an international tourism consumption center, positioning high-end brands, and cultivating experiential retail formats, with a recovery in consumption confidence among high-net-worth individuals [2][9]

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in the range of 3.5%-3.75% during the January FOMC meeting, indicating a stable economic expansion in the U.S. [5][6] - The labor market's downward trend and inflation risks have eased, suggesting that maintaining stable interest rates is the best choice for the short term [7][8] - Market reactions post-FOMC meeting showed little change in risk appetite, with the Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices experiencing slight increases [8] Group 2: Industrial Profit Insights - In December 2025, industrial profits for large-scale enterprises grew by 0.6% year-on-year, marking a return to positive growth after three consecutive years of decline [10][11] - The profit structure within the industrial sector is showing signs of divergence, with the equipment manufacturing sector becoming a significant driver of profit growth [13] - High-tech manufacturing profits increased by 13.3% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the average growth of all industrial sectors [13] Group 3: Pre-prepared Food Industry - The Chinese government is drafting national standards for pre-prepared foods to enhance consumer protection and industry quality [25][26] - The introduction of these standards is expected to raise compliance costs for smaller companies, leading to a market reshuffle favoring larger, established firms [27][28] - As industry standards improve, leading companies are likely to benefit from enhanced brand trust and market share [29] Group 4: Chemical Industry Developments - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is pushing for the exit of outdated capacity in the chlor-alkali industry, particularly in PVC production, due to environmental concerns [31][32] - The implementation of the Minamata Convention will increase production costs for companies using mercury-based processes, accelerating the exit of less competitive firms [33] - Beneficiaries of these changes include companies like Xinjiang Tianye and Zhongtai Chemical, which are better positioned to adapt to the new regulatory environment [34] Group 5: Medical Industry Insights - Kailaiying, a leading small molecule CDMO, is transitioning towards a dual business model that includes emerging sectors like peptides and small nucleic acids, showing strong growth potential [35][36] - The company is expanding its peptide production capacity significantly to meet the rising demand for GLP-1 drugs, positioning itself favorably in a high-growth market [36] - The overall investment environment in the healthcare sector is improving, which may lead to increased demand for CDMO services [37]

Group 1: Core Perspectives - Hainan's free trade port is positioned as a strategic hub for dual circulation, evolving its functions gradually [1] - The long-term focus on duty-free shopping is essential for Hainan to establish itself as an international tourism consumption center [1] - The capital market and real estate stabilization may boost consumer confidence, particularly among high-net-worth individuals, benefiting the duty-free sector [1] Group 2: Policy Insights - Hainan's free trade port is leveraging the closure to enhance high-level openness, with a tax system featuring "zero tariffs and low tax rates" [2] - The policy framework aims to attract quality industries and talent, particularly in high-value sectors like biomedicine and high-end manufacturing [2] - The implementation of facilitation measures is designed to break down barriers for cross-border flows of various elements, enhancing Hainan's position as a regional offshore trade center [2] Group 3: Duty-Free Market Dynamics - The duty-free market in Hainan is experiencing a significant adjustment period, with sales expected to decline until 2024 [3] - Recent policy changes have relaxed restrictions on product categories and consumer sources, potentially unlocking new consumption scenarios [3] - In November, sales reached 5.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.8%, indicating a positive turning point in consumer engagement [3]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core View The report focuses on the differentiation in the mid - stream industries and suggests paying attention to the release of downstream consumption. It presents recent events in the production and service industries, and analyzes the price and operation status of upstream, mid - stream, and downstream industries [1]. Detailed Summary by Directory 1. Mid - view Event Overview - **Production Industry**: From January 15th to 16th, China Aero - Engine's "Taihang 7", "Taihang 15", and "Taihang 110" gas turbine innovation and development demonstration projects passed the evaluation and acceptance of the National Energy Administration, which will drive the industrialization and commercialization of China's gas turbine industry [1]. - **Service Industry**: As of January 17th, 2026, since the full - island customs closure of Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18th, 2025, Haikou Customs supervised 4.86 billion yuan in off - island duty - free shopping, a 46.8% year - on - year increase; 745,000 shopping visitors, a 30.2% increase; and 3.494 million shopping items, a 14.6% increase [1]. 2. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: Copper prices declined slightly; egg and pork prices rebounded; PTA prices dropped [2]. - **Mid - stream**: PX and urea in the chemical industry maintained high operating rates; power plant coal consumption was at a low level [3]. - **Downstream**: Second - tier city commercial housing sales increased seasonally; domestic flight frequencies decreased slightly [4]. 3. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On January 19th, the spot price of corn was 2,262.9 yuan/ton (up 0.38% year - on - year), eggs 7.9 yuan/kg (up 8.28%), palm oil 8,620 yuan/ton (down 2.31%), cotton 15,889.3 yuan/ton (up 0.74%), and the average wholesale price of pork 18.5 yuan/kg (up 2.33%) [36]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On January 19th, the spot price of copper was 101,140 yuan/ton (down 2.07%), zinc 24,402 yuan/ton (up 1.16%), aluminum 23,890 yuan/ton (down 1.98%), and nickel 146,416.7 yuan/ton (up 0.46%) [36]. - **Black Metals**: On January 19th, the spot price of rebar was 3,232.3 yuan/ton (down 0.42%), iron ore 833.9 yuan/ton (down 1.03%), wire rod 3,480 yuan/ton (down 0.50%), and glass 12.9 yuan/square meter (down 0.23%) [36]. - **Non - metals**: On January 19th, the spot price of natural rubber was 15,583.3 yuan/ton (down 1.48%), and the China Plastics City price index was 775.7 (up 1.34%) [36]. - **Energy**: On January 19th, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 59.3 US dollars/barrel (up 0.37%), Brent crude oil 64.1 US dollars/barrel (up 1.25%), liquefied natural gas 3,514 yuan/ton (down 0.90%), and coal 803 yuan/ton (up 0.88%) [36]. - **Chemical Industry**: On January 19th, the spot price of PTA was 5,019.8 yuan/ton (down 2.02%), polyethylene 6,840 yuan/ton (up 2.47%), urea 1,767.5 yuan/ton (up 1.29%), and soda ash 1,214.3 yuan/ton (down 0.35%) [36]. - **Real Estate**: On January 19th, the national cement price index was 134.5 (down 0.44% year - on - year), the building materials composite index increased by 0.03%, and the national concrete price index decreased by 0.18% [36].

Core Viewpoint - The Hainan Free Trade Port has achieved a smooth start and initial results in its first month of operation since the full closure on December 18, 2025, with policies effectively transitioning from design to implementation, benefiting market participants and the public [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The zero-tariff policy conducted 53 transactions with a total value of 753 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.9%, resulting in tax reductions of 109 million yuan, up 194.6% [2]. - The processing value-added duty exemption policy completed 214 transactions, a growth of 37.2%, with a total value of 85.87 million yuan and tax reductions of 3.32 million yuan [2]. - The first transaction under the restricted list policy was completed, with a value of 347,000 yuan, marking the effective implementation of the closure policies [2]. Group 2: Trade and Traffic Growth - The customs optimized regulatory models, leading to a 27% reduction in average clearance time, with total import and export value through open ports reaching 16.368 billion yuan, a growth of 3.6% [3]. - The number of inbound and outbound travelers reached 289,100, averaging 9,300 daily, an increase of 31.3%, with foreign visitors averaging 2,600 daily, up 64.3% [3]. - The management of "second-line" ports has been smooth, with 5.9355 million travelers and 459,900 vehicles passing through in the first month, demonstrating effective regulatory capacity [3]. Group 3: Market Vitality and Investment - The implementation of closure policies has stimulated market investment and entrepreneurial enthusiasm, with 26,800 new business entities established, including 21,000 new companies, a year-on-year increase of 16.42% [4]. - The proportion of new enterprises increased from 42% before the closure to nearly 80%, indicating a trend of structural optimization [4]. - The offshore duty-free market saw sales of 4.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.8%, with 745,000 shoppers, up 30.2%, reflecting strong consumer enthusiasm [4]. Group 4: Risk Management - The risk warning, assessment, and response mechanisms have operated effectively, with all monitoring indicators normal and no systemic risks in key areas such as anti-smuggling and ecological protection [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the full operation of the Hainan Free Trade Port, with plans to transition from early policy trials to comprehensive institutional arrangements, aiming to establish Hainan as a significant gateway for China's new era of opening up [5].

Core Insights - The Hainan Free Trade Port has successfully completed its first month of operation since its closure on December 18, 2025, attracting a significant number of foreign trade enterprises [1][4] - The customs authority reported a total of 5,132 new registered foreign trade enterprises in Hainan as of January 17, 2026, indicating a strong interest in the region [1][4] - The customs has streamlined the approval process for enterprises, reducing the average approval time by nearly 60% [1][4] Trade and Economic Impact - In the first month of operation, customs monitored zero-tariff goods worth 750 million yuan, benefiting local enterprises, hospitals, and research institutions [1][4] - The customs also oversaw the export of value-added goods worth 85.867 million yuan to the mainland, enhancing the local industry chain and increasing added value [1][4] Duty-Free Market Performance - The duty-free shopping market in Hainan reported a total shopping amount of 4.86 billion yuan in the first month, representing a year-on-year increase of 46.8% [2][5] - The number of shoppers reached 745,000, marking a 30.2% increase, while the number of items purchased was 3.494 million, up by 14.6% [2][5] - Hainan's customs also recorded 311,000 inbound and outbound travelers through the airport, reflecting a 48.8% year-on-year growth [2][5]

Group 1 - The Hainan Free Trade Port has seen significant growth in foreign trade enterprises, with 5,132 new registered foreign trade companies since the closure on December 18, 2025 [1] - The average approval time for enterprise registration has been reduced by nearly 60%, with over 100 inquiries received daily through a single hotline [1] - In the first month of operation, customs regulated zero-tariff goods worth 750 million yuan, benefiting local enterprises, hospitals, and research institutions [1] Group 2 - The duty-free shopping market in Hainan has shown remarkable growth, with a total shopping amount of 4.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.8% [2] - The number of shoppers reached 745,000, reflecting a 30.2% increase, while the number of items purchased grew by 14.6% to 3.494 million [2] - The Hainan Free Trade Port has attracted more travelers, with 311,000 people passing through the Hainan air port, marking a 48.8% year-on-year increase [2]

Core Insights - The press conference highlighted the progress and effectiveness of the Hainan Free Trade Port's operations since its closure, emphasizing smooth and efficient customs processes and overall stable operations [1] Group 1: Policy Effects - The customs authority reported that from December 18, 2025, to January 10, 2026, 18,000 tons of goods were regulated under the "first line" customs clearance model, with zero-tariff imports valued at 460 million yuan and tax exemptions totaling 62.128 million yuan [3] - The "second line" customs supervision facilitated the export of value-added goods worth 56.816 million yuan, with an exemption of 2.301 million yuan in import duties, aiding local enterprises in extending their industrial chains and enhancing value [3] Group 2: Increased Business Attraction - The Hainan Free Trade Port has attracted a significant number of businesses, with 4,709 new foreign trade enterprises registered since the closure, equating to the total number of registrations in a quarter of 2024, bringing the total to over 100,000 [3] - The overall trade volume in Hainan reached 21.42 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, with imports and exports growing by 13.3% and 31.6% respectively [3] Group 3: Duty-Free Shopping Growth - The number of duty-free shoppers in Hainan reached 585,000, with total spending of 3.89 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 32.4% and 49.6% respectively, averaging 24,000 shoppers daily with daily spending of 160 million yuan [4] - The expansion of duty-free product categories from 45 to 47, including new electronic items, and the broadening of eligible shoppers to those departing from Hainan Island, have contributed to this growth [4]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market opened with the Hang Seng Index up by 0.43%, the National Index up by 0.59%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.88% [1] - New energy vehicle stocks saw a broad increase, while copper and other non-ferrous metal stocks led the rise in the sector [1] - Semiconductor stocks showed strong performance, while the consumer sector experienced slight fluctuations with the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) showing a small decline [1] Group 2: Hainan Free Trade Port Developments - In the first week of the Hainan Free Trade Port's full closure, policy benefits have stimulated market activity, with impressive data in duty-free shopping and foreign trade [1] - Duty-free shopping figures for the first week reached 1.1 billion yuan, with 775,000 items purchased and 165,000 shoppers, representing year-on-year increases of 54.9%, 11.8%, and 34.1% respectively [1] - The number of newly registered foreign trade enterprises in Hainan increased by 1972, a year-on-year growth of 230%, with over 30,000 new registered customs declaration units for the year, up over 40% [1] - The passenger throughput at Meilan Airport during the first week post-closure increased by 11.8% year-on-year, with significant growth in ticket bookings for the New Year holiday [1] Group 3: Government Initiatives - The Ministry of Finance announced plans to significantly boost consumption in the coming year, implementing special actions to support consumer spending [2] - The government will continue to allocate funds for consumer goods trade-in programs and adjust subsidy ranges and standards [2] Group 4: Related ETFs - Tourism ETF (562510) is positioned to benefit from holiday catalysts and the ice and snow economy [3] - Food and Beverage ETF (515170) is seen as undervalued in the context of boosting domestic demand [3] - Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) is linked to e-commerce leaders and new consumption trends [3]