格隆汇9月15日丨投资者在美联储降息之前，不愿建立新头寸，因此美国国债收益率在欧洲午盘交易中 持稳或小幅下跌。Exness 分析师Van Ha Trinh在一份报告中表示："投资者正等待观察通胀动态和美联储 的指引是否会进一步改变预期。"这位金融市场策略师指出，若政策宽松的速度或规模出现任何意外， 收益率都可能产生剧烈反应。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields exhibited a W-shaped trend, with the 10-year yield rising by 3.80 basis points to 4.0586% on Friday, September 12, after a drop following the release of the CPI inflation data [1] Treasury Yield Summary - The 10-year Treasury yield decreased by a total of 1.56 basis points over the week, reaching a peak of 4.1010% on September 8 before falling to 3.9921% on September 11 [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield increased by 1.41 basis points to 3.5556%, with a weekly increase of 4.44 basis points, trading between 3.4712% and 3.5723% [1] - The 2/10 year Treasury yield spread rose by 2.803 basis points to +50.087 basis points, reflecting a cumulative decline of 6.211 basis points for the week [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that despite an increase in inflation levels, it is unlikely to alter the Federal Reserve's policy outlook [1] - Pimco economists maintain their predictions regarding Federal Reserve policy and inflation, expecting a 25 basis point rate cut next week, with a possibility of discussing a 50 basis point cut [1] - Pimco forecasts a total rate cut of 75 basis points for the year [1] Group 2 - The August CPI data shows a year-on-year increase to 2.9%, up from 2.7% in July [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 1.8 basis points to 3.545%, while the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 2.3 basis points to 4.033% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant decline in U.S. Treasury yields following the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) data, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to a new low of 4.03% since April [1][2] - The U.S. Treasury issued $39 billion in 10-year bonds, with strong demand reflected in a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.65, indicating robust investor interest [2] - The August PPI data showed a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, marking the first decline in four months and falling short of market expectations for a 0.3% increase [1][2] Group 2 - The indirect bid ratio, which measures foreign demand, reached 83.1%, the second-highest on record, while the direct bid ratio from domestic investors was at 12.66%, the lowest since April [2] - The decline in the allocation to primary dealers, which fell to a historical low of 4.2%, suggests a shift in demand dynamics, with passive investment vehicles like index funds and ETFs becoming significant buyers of U.S. Treasuries [2] - The low allocation to primary dealers indicates strong actual demand, leading to less selling pressure in the secondary market, which may help stabilize yields [2]

Group 1 - The upcoming U.S. employment report is expected to reinforce market views on Federal Reserve policy and influence short-term interest rate trends [1] - Recent weaker-than-expected economic data has strengthened market bets on a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield retreating from the 5% mark [1] - The market is almost certain that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at the upcoming meeting on September 16-17 [2] Group 2 - Derivative contracts betting on Federal Reserve policy indicate nearly a 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut later this month, with expectations of five total cuts by the end of next year [2] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, sensitive to Federal Reserve policy changes, is currently around 3.6%, close to its lowest level since May [2] - Market participants are preparing for potential volatility in response to the employment report, with options pricing indicating a balance point of 10 basis points for fluctuations [3] Group 3 - If the employment report is stronger than expected, the U.S. dollar may be boosted, as market sentiment is currently leaning bearish on the dollar [4] - Hedge funds and other speculative investors held short positions against the dollar amounting to approximately $5.6 billion in the week ending August 26 [4] - A strong employment report could indicate a reduction in the Federal Reserve's easing measures for the remainder of the year, potentially supporting the dollar [4]

周三（9月3日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率跌4.46个基点，报4.2168%，日内交投于 4.2984%-4.1993%区间，北京时间22:00发布美国职位空缺（就业数据）之后短线显著走低。两年期美债 收益率跌2.26个基点，报3.6166%，日内交投于3.6597%-3.6002%区间。 ...

Group 1 - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 3.3 basis points to 4.922% [1] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 3.6 basis points to 3.694% [1]

Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose approximately 1 basis point, nearing 4.29%, with the overall intraday decline narrowing to less than 2.0 basis points after the Federal Reserve meeting minutes were released [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield rebounded from below 3.73% to above 3.74%, with the overall intraday decline narrowing to less than 0.9 basis points [1] - The 2/10 year Treasury yield spread fell back below +54 basis points [1] Group 2 - Following the release of the meeting minutes, the S&P 500 index dropped over 0.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average turned negative, and the Nasdaq fell over 1% [1]

Group 1 - Trump is considering firing a Federal Reserve official, Lisa Cook, due to allegations of mortgage fraud related to her housing applications [2][3] - Allegations state that Cook submitted fraudulent information on two mortgage applications for properties in Michigan and Georgia, claiming both as her primary residence [3][4] - The accusations have led to a weakening of the dollar, a narrowing of U.S. Treasury yields, and an increase in gold prices [5] Group 2 - The incident marks an escalation in the White House's attacks on the Federal Reserve, with FHFA Director Bill Pulte becoming a prominent critic of Fed Chair Jerome Powell [8] - Cook, nominated by Biden in 2022, has aligned her voting stance with Powell and the majority of the FOMC during her tenure [8] - Recent criticisms from Trump and his appointees come as the market anticipates potential interest rate cuts from the Fed in the upcoming meetings [8][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. federal budget deficit is projected to be nearly $1 trillion higher over the next decade than previously estimated by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) due to tax and spending legislation and tariff policies [1] - The cumulative deficit from FY 2026 to FY 2035 is expected to reach $22.7 trillion, compared to the CBO's earlier estimate of $21.8 trillion [1] - The CBO will not release a mid-year budget update this year, instead opting to publish the next 10-year budget and economic outlook in early 2026 [1] Group 2 - The CRFB estimates that the "Big and Beautiful" legislation will increase the deficit by $4.6 trillion over the next decade, but this will be largely offset by $3.4 trillion in new tariff revenue from Trump's current tariff policies [2] - New regulations limiting Medicare subsidy eligibility are expected to reduce the deficit by an additional $100 billion by 2035, along with a potential $100 billion savings from the cancellation of funding for foreign aid and public broadcasting [2] - Net interest payments on U.S. debt are projected to total $14 trillion over the next decade, rising from nearly $1 trillion in 2025 (3.2% of GDP) to $1.8 trillion by 2035 (4.1% of GDP) [2] Group 3 - In a more pessimistic scenario, if the Court of International Trade upholds Trump's new tariffs, the expected tariff revenue could decrease by $2.4 trillion over the next decade [2] - The extension of temporary tax cuts in the "Big and Beautiful" legislation could increase the deficit by $1.7 trillion over ten years [3] - The CRFB warns that the debt-to-GDP ratio by 2035 could rise to 120% in the baseline scenario and 134% in a negative scenario, compared to the CBO's earlier estimate of 118% [3]