美元四季度观点 东证衍生品研究院 元涛 从业资格号：F0286099 投资咨询号：Z0012850 美国经济-劳动力市场韧性降低 劳动力市场冷却速度上升 职位空缺降低 失业率上升但是通胀未必下行 资料来源：Bloomberg 美国劳动力市场韧性在明显降低，失业率开始趋势性上升，职位空缺趋向于中性水平。劳动力市场 很明显比预期要弱。 美国经济-劳动力市场中期弱势难免 资料来源：Bloomberg 经济基本面数据已经走弱，劳动力市场表现在目前很明显开始跟随经济基本面走弱，远期预期明显 下行，但是薪资增速继续维持相对韧性。 劳动力市场走弱速度可能加快 薪资增速继续制约核心通胀下行速度 经济远期预期波动加剧 美国经济-滞胀前景愈发明显 美国通胀短期压力继续存在 核心服务业通胀回升 资料来源：Bloomberg 短期通胀压力持续存在，核心通胀尤其是服务业通胀没有明显下行倾向，短期通胀压力很明显在上 升。 美国经济-滞胀前景愈发明显 通胀预期高位震荡 能源价格对于降息影响并不高 资料来源：Bloomberg 但是真正的关键在于远期通胀预期明显上升，并且达到一个非常高的水平，能源价格的上升对于通 胀预期的影响并不是非常显著 ...

9月25日公布的数据显示，美国至9月20日当周初请失业金人数从前值23.2万人下降至21.8万人。不过，有机构指 出，美国最新的初请失业金人数的下降是在特朗普总统的移民政策造成就业市场劳动力人数下降基础上企业担 心招聘困难而减少裁员的情况下产生的结果。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市场的准 确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 同日公布的美国第二季度GDP年化季率终值从初值3.30%上修到3.8%。这反映出美国经济在今年第二季度的增长 相当强劲。不过，这似乎与前期制造业和就业市场的疲软相左。 美联储主席鲍威尔和一些机构的分析师都曾指出，当前美国经济面临的压力不小，存在下行风险。这不仅是特 朗普总统的关税政策给美国经济带来的不确定性影响造成的，更是美国经济深层次矛盾的反映，也是美元信用 透支的体现。 实际上，对于拥有强大的美元体系并能够影响全球经济的方方面面的美国而言，真正能够在短期导致美国经济 出现大动荡，能够造成美元信用下降的只有美国自己。正所谓"祸起萧墙"。 成也萧何败也萧何。美国经济在过往的一个世纪的辉煌源 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. new home sales data for August exceeded expectations, alleviating concerns about the U.S. economy [1][2] - The 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury yields rose following the positive data release [1] Group 1: Economic Data - August new home sales were annualized at 800,000 units, significantly higher than the expected 650,000 units and the previous value of 652,000 units, marking the fastest growth since early 2022 [1] - Month-over-month, new home sales surged by 20.5%, contrasting with the expected decline of 0.3% and the previous decline of 0.6% [1] - The inventory of unsold new homes dropped to 490,000 units, the lowest level this year [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The positive data led to a decrease in concerns about the U.S. economy, resulting in adjustments in U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices [2] - LPL Financial's chief economist noted that a recovery in real estate could help the economy avoid recession, suggesting that risk assets typically perform well in non-recessionary rate-cutting cycles [2] Group 3: Future Indicators - Investors are awaiting further economic data releases, including the latest existing home sales report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and the final GDP estimate for Q2 2025 [2] - The U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a key inflation indicator, is set to be released, which investors hope will provide insights into price pressures and the state of the U.S. economy [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent fluctuations in gold prices and the performance of gold ETFs, influenced by economic data and Federal Reserve statements [1][2]. - As of September 25, 2025, the gold ETF (159937) decreased by 0.62%, with a latest price of 8.12 yuan, while it saw a cumulative increase of 2.74% over the past week [1]. - The liquidity of the gold ETF was notable, with a turnover rate of 1.47% and a transaction volume of 4.33 billion yuan, ranking it among the top two comparable funds in terms of average daily trading volume of 10.87 billion yuan over the past week [1]. Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent comments indicated that U.S. stock valuations are "quite high," and he reiterated the dual challenges of rising inflation and declining employment, which negatively impacted market sentiment [2]. - The U.S. Commerce Department reported that new home sales for August reached an annualized total of 800,000 units, significantly exceeding expectations of 650,000 units, marking a month-over-month increase of 20.5% [1][2]. - The gold ETF experienced a net inflow of funds over the past three days, with a peak single-day inflow of 347 million yuan, totaling 497 million yuan, and an average daily net inflow of 166 million yuan [2].

“新债王”冈拉克旗下的DoubleLine Capital（双线资本）表示，目前正综合运用官方及私营数据来源评估美国经济健康状况，因担忧美国劳工统计局数据质量下滑。配置策略师Ryan Kimmel表示，会监测官方数据，但也会用私人数据集、企业财报电话会议、以及公司内部专家关于公司债、消费信贷、商业地产和抵押贷款的观点来进行补充。 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced fluctuations due to hawkish statements from Powell and a significant increase in new home sales data, closing down 1.24% at $3768.5 per ounce [1] - The U.S. Commerce Department reported that new home sales in August reached an annualized total of 800,000 units, exceeding expectations of 650,000 units, marking a month-over-month increase of 20.5%, the fastest growth since early 2022 [1] - The inventory of new homes for sale dropped to 490,000 units, the lowest level this year, indicating a potential easing of economic concerns in the U.S. [1] Group 2 - Powell's remarks indicated that U.S. stock valuations are "quite high," reiterating the dual challenges of rising inflation and declining employment faced by the Federal Reserve [1] - The market is still processing Powell's hawkish comments, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury prices and an increase in yields approaching two-week highs [1] - The U.S. dollar index rebounded to a near two-week high, which has put additional pressure on gold prices [1] Group 3 - Upcoming economic indicators to watch include the final GDP figures for Q2 and the PCE data for August, which could influence future interest rate decisions and gold price movements [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced fluctuations due to hawkish comments from Powell and a significant increase in new home sales data, leading to a decline in gold futures by 1.24% to $3768.5 per ounce [1] Economic Data - The U.S. Commerce Department reported that new home sales in August reached an annualized total of 800,000 units, significantly exceeding the expected 650,000 units, marking a month-over-month increase of 20.5%, the fastest growth since early 2022 [1] - The inventory of new homes for sale dropped to 490,000 units, the lowest level this year [1] Market Sentiment - Market concerns regarding the U.S. economy have diminished, contributing to the adjustment in gold prices [1] - Powell's remarks indicated that U.S. stock valuations are "quite high," reiterating the dual challenges of rising inflation and declining employment faced by the Federal Reserve [1] - The market is still processing Powell's hawkish statements, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury prices and an increase in yields approaching a two-week high [1] Currency and Future Outlook - The U.S. dollar index rebounded to a near two-week high, which has exerted downward pressure on gold prices [1] - Upcoming economic indicators, including the final Q2 GDP and August PCE data, are critical; a downward adjustment in GDP could strengthen expectations for potential interest rate cuts in the future, possibly providing upward momentum for gold prices [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the U.S. economy faces "dual risks" of rising inflation and declining employment, with significant changes in trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies yet to be observed [1] - Powell noted that in the short term, inflation is at risk of rising while employment faces downward pressure, creating a challenging situation [1] - The Fed's recent Beige Book highlighted that uncertainty is suppressing business expectations, with consumer and business confidence indicators having significantly declined in the spring but still remaining below early-year levels [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [2] - Stephen Milan, a newly appointed Fed governor, cast the only dissenting vote against the rate cut, advocating for a 50 basis point reduction instead [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current market conditions indicate a strong performance in precious metals, particularly gold, driven by expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Data - On September 24, the Shanghai gold futures closed at 860.00 CNY per gram, reflecting a daily increase of 1.03% with a trading volume of 285,621 lots and an open interest of 274,765 lots [1]. - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 853.15 CNY per gram, showing a discount of 6.85 CNY per gram compared to the futures price [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the policy interest rate remains slightly restrictive, allowing the Fed to better respond to potential economic developments [1]. - The market anticipates a high probability of interest rate cuts, with an 89.8% chance of a 25 basis point cut in October and a 75.3% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The preliminary September PMI for the U.S. services sector was reported at 53.9, slightly below expectations, while the manufacturing PMI was at 52, also below prior values [1]. - The latest PMI data suggests that the U.S. economy shows some resilience, which may alleviate concerns about an economic slowdown [3]. Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - Analysts interpret Powell's remarks as potentially opening the door for further rate cuts, maintaining high expectations for U.S. liquidity easing [3]. - Despite the risks of stagflation and geopolitical conflicts, the long-term value of precious metals remains strong, with a continued inclination towards gold in global asset allocation [3].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the rebound in U.S. consumer spending in August 2025 is attributed to the easing of trade negotiation risks and a recovery in consumer confidence, suggesting that the most dangerous phase for the U.S. economy may have passed [2] Market Data Summary A-Share Market - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3876.34, up by 0.37% - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4551.02, up by 0.61% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13215.46, up by 1.16% - The ChiNext Index closed at 3147.35, up by 1.95% [3] Futures Market - The IF2509 futures closed at 4553.20, up by 0.80% - The IF2510 futures closed at 4541.80, up by 0.77% [3] Commodity Market - Gold closed at 835.08, down by 0.83% - Crude oil closed at 2831, up by 1.29% [3] Overseas Market - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26908.39, up by 1.78% - The Dow Jones closed at 46018.32, up by 0.57% [3] Foreign Exchange Market - The USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.1013, down by 0.02% [3] Interest Rate Market - The weighted average rate for DR001 was 1.4867, up by 4.43 basis points - The yield to maturity for the 10-year government bond was 1.8349, down by 1.78 basis points [3]