英国央行货币政策委员丁格拉：所有货币政策委员会成员都肯定了通胀回落，我看到国内风险的下行压 力更大。 ...

欧洲央行管委帕内塔：通胀回落对欧元区经济的冲击尚不算过大，目前已接近结束。 ...

土耳其财政部长：通胀回落仍在持续，而我国经济则保持适度增长。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia indicates that the tightening monetary policy has led to a slowdown in credit growth to a balanced level, along with signs of inflation easing [1] Group 1 - The tightening of monetary policy has resulted in a deceleration of credit growth [1] - There are emerging signs of inflation retreating in the economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Turkey's Finance Minister indicates that the financial situation is tense, oil prices are declining, and the process of inflation reduction is proceeding as expected [1] Group 1 - The financial situation in Turkey is described as tense, suggesting potential challenges for the economy [1] - Oil prices are experiencing a downward trend, which may impact various sectors including energy and transportation [1] - The inflation reduction process is ongoing and aligns with expectations, indicating a potential stabilization in the economy [1]

欧洲央行执委施纳贝尔：通胀回落正在步入正轨，但新的冲击带来了新的挑战。 ...

Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - The World Bank's report indicates a general decline in commodity prices, predicting a 12% drop by 2025 and an additional 5% drop in 2026 [1] - Energy prices, particularly oil, are the main drivers of this decline, with Brent crude oil expected to average $64 per barrel in 2025, a 21% decrease from 2024 [1] - Coal prices are projected to fall by 27% in 2025 due to weakened demand and high inventory levels [1] Group 2: Metal and Mineral Prices - Metal and mineral prices are also on a downward trend, with copper prices expected to drop by 10% to approximately $8,200 per ton by 2025 [2] - Basic metals like aluminum, zinc, and nickel are forecasted to decline by 10% to 13% [2] - The decrease in metal prices may lower manufacturing costs but is unlikely to stimulate consumer demand [2] Group 3: Agricultural Commodity Prices - Agricultural commodity prices are generally declining, with wheat, corn, and rice expected to drop by 10.5% in 2025 due to ample supply and slowing demand [2] - Oilseed and edible oil prices are projected to decrease by 3% to 6% due to increased production and improved global inventories [2] - Prices for agricultural raw materials like cotton, rubber, and tobacco are anticipated to fall by 2% to 10% due to weak downstream demand and high inventory levels [2] Group 4: Economic Impacts of Commodity Price Declines - The decline in commodity prices will have varying impacts on different countries, helping to curb inflation and stabilize consumption in importing countries [3] - Energy and food price reductions are expected to lower the consumer price index (CPI) globally, particularly benefiting developed economies [3] - Resource-dependent economies, particularly those reliant on oil, gas, metals, and agricultural exports, will face challenges such as declining fiscal revenues and economic growth [3]

周一（5月19日）欧洲时段，欧元兑美元小幅上涨并重新站上1.1200关口，截至发稿前欧元/美元汇率报 1.1224，涨幅0.54%。尽管市场情绪偏谨慎，但经济和财政担忧引发的持续抛售美元支撑了欧元/美元。 目前焦点仍集中在美联储官员的讲话和贸易新闻标题上，以寻找新的交易动力。 欧洲央行管委会成员Martins Kazaks表示，如果通胀在今年回落至2%的基准预期得以实现，欧元区的降 息周期已接近尾声。但他同时警告称，由于全球贸易形势仍不明朗，政策制定者不应急于求成。 投资者押注的是，由于通胀朝着目标回落、加上关税带来的经济逆风，欧洲央行将进一步放松货币政 策。Martins Kazaks称市场预期是"适当的"。他本周早些时候曾表示，认为政策制定者在下次政策会议 上有理由再次降息。但他也强调，这一决定将基于获得的数据。 从日线级别，欧元对美元汇率在近期高位震荡后下破日线支撑，同时在下破后价格持续压制在日线阻 力，对于波段上短线于1.1240偏空对待，只有后续上破后才会转涨，否则右侧空对待。从短期四小时级 别看，近几日欧元走势维持在震荡格局，价格多空均没有延续，所以还是关注上方日线阻力得失。第一 价格不破日线阻力 ...

土耳其央行副行长：我们正面临真正的通胀回落前景（首次出现该表态）。 ...

美联储理事库格勒：通胀回落的进展已放缓。劳动力市场状况基本保持稳定。 ...