美国联邦储备委员会再次宣布降息25个基点，而鲍威尔的一席"鹰派"讲话却让市场顿时心跳加速。 ，委员会才做出了降息决定。 北京时间10月30日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 。这是美联储今年以来的第二次降息，也是自2024年9月开启降息周期以来的 在美联储决议公布后，市场目光全部聚焦于美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会。然而，鲍威尔却给市场的热切期待泼了一盆冷水——他明确表示， 美联储在12月再次降息"远未成定局"。 美联储结束了为期两天的货币政策会议，如期宣布降息25个基点。 这一决定完全符合市场预期，在会议前，市场对降息的概率预测高达 FOMC在会后声明中表示："现有指标显示，经济活动一直以温和的速度扩张，今年就业增长放缓，失业率略有上升，通胀率自年初以来有所上 升，目前仍处于较高水平。" 声明指出， 本次利率决议并非全无争议，事实上，美联储内部出现了罕见的 在12位FOMC成员中，有10位投票支持降息25个基点，但理事 。 。 。 和堪萨斯联储主席 却投下了反对票。 米兰主张美联储应该在本次会议上降息50个基点，而施密德则认为应该维持利率不变。 这种"两极反对"——一端呼吁暂停，另一端呼吁更激进宽松 ...

美联储将利率下调25个基点至3.75%–4.00%，并确认量化紧缩（QT）将在12月1日结束，同时在年底前恢复政策灵活性。市场目前预期12月再度降息的概率 为68.6%，但鲍威尔的"可选"表态让交易员保持谨慎。美元指数（DXY）守在关键支撑位之上，位于4小时的公平价值缺口（FVG）区间98.63–99.35内，维 持偏强走势。 美联储10月降息，但12月仍未定 10月29日，美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.75%–4.00%，并宣布量化紧缩将在12月1日结束。 这一决定标志着一次"谨慎的转向"——放松政策但仍保持控制。美联储指出就业增长放缓、金融条件趋紧，但主席鲍威尔强调，政策不会沿着预设路径前 行。 市场早已消化此次降息，但新闻发布会的基调却使美元获得支撑。鲍威尔拒绝提前承诺进一步行动，削弱了市场对激进宽松周期的预期。 12月FOMC展望：68.6%的降息可能性 根据CMEFedWatch工具，交易员认为12月再次降息的概率为68.6%，维持不变的概率为31.4%。 10月如何影响12月？ QT结束带来缓冲：12月1日起流动性将略有增加，降低了继续降息的紧迫性。 数据依赖：11月公 ...

Core Points - The Federal Reserve decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% during its meeting on October 28-29, marking the second rate cut in 2025 following September's decision [1] - The Fed announced it will stop monthly reductions of its balance sheet starting December 1, effectively ending the quantitative tightening process that began in 2022 [1] - UOB's macro research report indicates a possibility of another 25 basis point rate cut in December, with two additional cuts expected in 2026 [1] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Decision - The rate cut decision was not unanimous, with a vote of 10 to 2, indicating differing opinions among Fed officials [1] - Fed Governor Miran opposed the decision, advocating for a 50 basis point cut, while Kansas City Fed President Schmid preferred to keep rates unchanged [1] Economic Context - Fed Chair Powell described the October rate cut as a "risk management measure" aimed at aligning policy closer to a neutral stance [2] - Powell acknowledged the limitations in obtaining key economic data due to the ongoing government shutdown, suggesting a cautious approach for the December decision [2] Market Expectations - Despite Powell's cautious remarks, market expectations for a December rate cut decreased from "almost certain" to 67.1%, yet UOB maintains its forecast for a 25 basis point cut [2] - UOB predicts that by the end of 2025, the upper limit of the federal funds rate target range will reach 3.75%, with two additional cuts anticipated in 2026, bringing the terminal rate to 3.25% [2] Upcoming Meetings - The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for December 9-10 [3]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% during the meeting on October 28-29, marking the second rate cut in 2025 following September's decision [1] - The Fed announced it will halt the monthly reduction of its balance sheet starting December 1, effectively ending the quantitative tightening (QT) process that began in 2022 [1] - UOB's macro research report indicated that the Fed may cut rates by another 25 basis points in December and potentially two more cuts in 2026 [1] - The rate decision was not unanimous, with a vote of 10 to 2; Fed Governor Miran opposed the decision, advocating for a 50 basis point cut, while Kansas City Fed President Schmid preferred to maintain rates [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second rate cut in 2025 following September's decision [1] - The Fed announced it will stop monthly reductions of its balance sheet starting December 1, ending the quantitative tightening process that began in 2022 [1] - UOB's macro research report indicates a possibility of another 25 basis point rate cut in December, with two additional cuts expected in 2026 [1][2] Group 2 - The rate decision was not unanimous, with a vote of 10 to 2; dissenting opinions included a call for a 50 basis point cut and a preference to maintain the current rate [1] - Fed Chair Powell described the October rate cut as a "risk management measure" aimed at aligning policy closer to a neutral stance, acknowledging data limitations due to the government shutdown [2] - Market expectations for a December rate cut decreased from "almost certain" to 67.1% following Powell's cautious remarks, although UOB maintains its forecast for a 25 basis point cut [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced the resumption of limited Treasury bond purchases, officially ending years of quantitative tightening (QT) policy, which is expected to stabilize bond holdings and slow monetary market tightening [2] - The plan includes maintaining a maximum of $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) per month without reinvestment, with all MBS maturity funds reinvested into Treasury bonds starting December 1 [2] - Market expectations for a rate cut in December have significantly cooled due to the Fed's hawkish stance, as indicated by comments from Fed Chair Powell [2] Group 2 - International silver is currently trading below $47.52, with a slight decline of 0.33% to $47.36 per ounce, indicating a short-term bearish trend [1] - Despite the current bearish sentiment, the silver market shows strong fundamentals and potential for future price increases, with a target of $49.5 expected this week [2] - The previous strategy of buying silver around $46 remains unchanged, with expectations for continued bullish momentum [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve continues its interest rate cut by 25 basis points and plans to end its balance sheet reduction (QT) in December [1][2] - The target range for the federal funds rate is lowered from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the first consecutive rate cuts in a year [1][2] - Market expectations have fully absorbed the likelihood of three rate cuts this year, with a 99.9% probability for the recent cut and a 91% probability for another cut in December [2] Group 2 - The decision to end the balance sheet reduction means that the Fed's QT actions will conclude after three and a half years, with short-term Treasury securities replacing maturing MBS holdings starting in December [2][3] - The Fed will reinvest principal payments from maturing securities into short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, with specific limits on the amounts for different securities [3] Group 3 - Fed Chair Powell indicated that there is significant disagreement among committee members regarding the potential for another rate cut in December, emphasizing that future policy is not predetermined [5][6] - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with GDP growth at 1.6% for the first half of the year, lower than the previous year's 2.4% [6] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with employment growth slowing and increased risks to job stability noted [6][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 29, Eastern Time, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, and decided to end the balance - sheet reduction plan in December. However, Powell poured cold water on the year - end rate - cut expectation [7]. - The domestic Fourth Plenary Session and the draft of the "15th Five - Year Plan" have a positive attitude towards economic growth in the next five years, which is conducive to the stability of macro - expectations. The upcoming meeting between Chinese and US presidents at the APEC meeting and the easing of the geopolitical environment have improved risk appetite [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fed Interest Rate Decision - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points from 4.00% - 4.25% to 3.75% - 4.00% on October 29, 2025, and will end balance - sheet reduction in December. Powell said that a December rate cut is not a certainty, and the government shutdown poses challenges due to missing economic data [7]. 3.2 Sector Recommendations by the Director 3.2.1 Index Futures - With the gradual landing of positive factors, the index futures may oscillate and wait for new drivers. Domestic policies and the upcoming Sino - US summit have boosted market sentiment, but the Fed's hawkish remarks led to a decline in US stocks. Future upward movement of the index will depend on new positive news, and there may be oscillations around the 4000 - point mark [9][10]. 3.2.2 Coking Coal - Supported by the tightening upstream fundamentals and the expected third - round price increase of coke, the coking coal spot price is strong. Macro expectations and anti - involution themes also boost the market. However, the shrinking profit of downstream steel mills and the price of thermal coal may limit its upward space [12][14]. 3.2.3 Container Freight Index (European Line) - There is a risk of a pull - back after a surge. The market is optimistic due to Maersk's surcharge announcement and the expectation of the US softening its stance on China's tariffs. Attention should be paid to the impact of port congestion on supply and the support of December's shipping capacity on prices [13][15]. 3.2.4 Live Pigs - In the short - term, the spot price may oscillate and adjust. But from the perspective of the production cycle, the pressure will increase in the future as the profit recovers, and the far - end hedging willingness will increase [16]. 3.3 Commodity Research Morning Report 3.3.1 Precious Metals - Gold continues to decline, and silver rebounds oscillatingly. The trend intensity of both is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [19][22][24]. 3.3.2 Base Metals - Copper: The hawkish outlook on rate cuts restricts price increases. The trend intensity is 0 [26]. - Zinc: It rebounds slightly, with a trend intensity of 0 [29]. - Lead: The continuous reduction of inventory supports the price, and the trend intensity is 0 [32]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts, and the trend intensity is 0 [35]. - Aluminum: It oscillates within a range. Alumina rebounds slightly, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensity of all three is 0 [39][41]. - Nickel: The accumulation of smelting inventory and concerns about nickel ore lead to a narrow - range oscillation of nickel prices. Stainless steel has limited downward space but lacks upward drivers. The trend intensity of both is 0 [42]. 3.3.3 Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: The basis is stable, and it runs strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [45][47]. - Industrial Silicon: The sentiment is boosted, and the price on the disk rises. The trend intensity is 1 [49][51]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the policy fermentation this week. The trend intensity is 0 [49][51]. - Iron Ore: It oscillates strongly, with a trend intensity of 0 [52]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Driven by macro - sentiment, the steel prices oscillate strongly. The trend intensity of both is 1 [54][56]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Driven by anti - involution sentiment, they oscillate strongly. The trend intensity of both is 0 [58][61]. - Coke and Coking Coal: They oscillate strongly, and the trend intensity of both is 0 [62][64]. - Logs: They oscillate repeatedly [65].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, but Chairman Powell's comments weakened market confidence in a December rate cut, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields [1][2]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points, marking the second cut since September 17 [1]. - The FOMC noted that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, while inflation remains high [1]. Diverging Opinions within the Fed - There are significant divisions within the Federal Reserve, with some members concerned that premature or excessive rate cuts could reignite inflation, while others argue for more aggressive easing to prevent deeper economic recession [2]. - Powell indicated that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed, emphasizing the uncertainty due to a lack of government data during the shutdown [2]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's statements, U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly, with the 10-year yield increasing by 10.01 basis points to 4.0757% and the 2-year yield rising by 10.82 basis points to 3.5980% [2]. - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in December has dropped from over 90% to below 70% according to CME FedWatch [4]. Asset and Balance Sheet Management - The FOMC announced the end of balance sheet reduction operations starting December 1, which had involved monthly reductions of $50 billion in U.S. Treasuries and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities [4]. - The Fed's balance sheet has decreased from nearly $9 trillion to approximately $7.2 trillion since the start of the balance sheet reduction in 2022, which is expected to alleviate liquidity pressures in the interbank market [4].

新华财经北京10月30日电（崔凯）美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下 调25个基点，至3.75%–4.00%。这是美联储继9月之后连续第二次会议降息，符合市场普遍预期。决议 获得多数委员支持，但两名成员投下反对票，凸显政策立场分化。 根据FOMC官方声明，堪萨斯城联储主席杰弗里·施密德（Jeffrey R. Schmid）反对降息，主张维持利率 不变；理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen I. Miran）则认为降息幅度不足，主张一次性下调50个基点。这是本轮 降息周期中首次出现"两极反对"——一端呼吁暂停，另一端呼吁更激进宽松。 经济评估：温和扩张、就业放缓、通胀仍处高位 FOMC在政策声明中指出，可用指标显示"经济活动以温和的速度扩张"。今年以来，就业增长明显放 缓，失业率略有上升，但截至8月仍处于较低水平；更近期的指标与这一趋势一致。通胀方面，声明 称"较年初有所上升，仍处于相对高位"。 委员会重申其双重使命——实现最大就业和长期2%的通胀目标，并强调"近几个月就业方面的下行风险 有所上升"，构成此次降息的主要依据。声明称，在考虑未来利率调整时，将"认真评估最新数据、经济 前景的 ...