国债期货日报 2025/6/19 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否 符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 端在期货 | | 周四国债现券收益率集体走弱，到期收益率1-7Y上行0.2-1.1bp左右，10Y与30Y分别上行 | | --- | --- | | | 0.60bp、0.20bp至1.64%、1.85%。国债期货短弱长强，TS、TF主力合约分别下跌0.01、 | | | 0.02%，T、TL主力合约分别上涨0.01%、0.16%。DR007加权利率持续上行至1.68%附近震 | | | 荡。国内基本面端，5月经济数据偏弱，工增小幅回落，社零超预期回升，固投规模持续收 | | | 敛，失业率环比改善。金融数据延续分化态势，政府债仍为社融主要支撑，受地产降温、隐债 | | 观 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 6 月 19 日 科创领航改革与开放 2025 年陆家嘴论坛金融政策点评 6 月 18 日，2025 陆家嘴论坛在上海开幕，中国人民银行行长潘功胜、金融监 管总局局长李云泽、中国证监会主席吴清、国家外汇局局长朱鹤新出席会议 并发表主题演讲。 相关研究报告 《策略点评》20250618 《5 月经济数据点评》20250616 《市场点评报告》20250616 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 "一行两局一会"重磅发声。央行宣布八项重磅金融政策：一是设立银 行间市场交易报告库；二是设立数字人民币国际运营中心；三是设立个 人征信机构；四是在上海临港新片区开展离岸贸易金融服务综合改革试 点；五是发展自贸离岸；六是优化升级自由贸易账户功能；七是在上海 ...

在中国经济不断发展、持续书写现代化新篇章的进程中，坚定不移地推进金融创新已经成为推动经济增长 和繁荣的基石。一段时间以来，中国相继出台一系列政策举措，不断增强金融服务业韧性，完善高水平对 外开放体制机制，促进贸易和投资自由化便利化，营造法治化、市场化的营商环境。 6月18日，2025陆家嘴论坛在上海开幕。自2008年以来，陆家嘴论坛已成功举办15届。今年，全球金融市 场波动加剧，陆家嘴论坛更是备受关注。持续深化金融高水平开放、提升金融资源配置能力，关乎中国在 全球金融领域的竞争力和化解风险挑战的反应力。 本届陆家嘴论坛为期两天，以"全球经济变局中的金融开放合作与高质量发展"为主题，参会嘉宾包括来自 世界各地的政府官员、专家学者及金融机构高管。中国人民银行行长潘功胜出席开幕式并发表主题演讲。 期间，潘功胜宣布将在上海设立数字人民币国际运营中心，推进数字人民币的国际化运营与金融市场业务 发展，服务数字金融创新。这一举措充分彰显了中国推进金融数字化、驾驭数字货币变革潜力的坚定决 心。 据悉，数字人民币国际运营中心将致力于稳步推进人民币国际化，促进人民币的跨境贸易和投资便利化。 目前，在中国金融机构、企业和个人开展的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance of the securities industry, particularly focusing on the decline of the Guozheng Securities Leading Index and the significant inflow of funds into the Securities ETF Leader [1] - As of June 19, 2025, the Guozheng Securities Leading Index (399437) has decreased by 1.59%, with China Galaxy (601881) leading the decline among component stocks [1] - The Securities ETF Leader has reached a new high in scale at 1.852 billion yuan and a new high in shares at 1.605 billion, indicating strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - The recent Lujiazui Forum announced eight major financial opening measures aimed at accelerating the high-quality development of the financial industry, with a focus on building an innovative ecosystem centered around the capital market [1] - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform the market" rating for the securities industry, predicting increased industry concentration and enhanced institutional pricing power under strict regulations [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Securities Leading Index account for 80.15% of the index, indicating a concentrated investment landscape [2]

Group 1 - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index (000824) decreased by 0.67% as of June 19, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - The top-performing stocks included Furan Energy (002911) up 1.76%, Zhongnan Media (601098) up 1.69%, and Changjiang Media (600757) up 1.65% [1] - The worst-performing stocks were China Steel International (000928) down 2.74%, Hualing Steel (000932) down 2.67%, and Jinkong Coal Industry (601001) down 2.09% [1] Group 2 - The National State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159515) fell by 0.82%, with the latest price at 1.09 yuan [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of 100 listed companies selected for high cash dividend yields, stable dividends, and certain scale and liquidity [1] - The top five industries represented in the index are banking, coal, transportation, real estate, and media [1] Group 3 - At the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, eight significant financial opening policies were announced, focusing on promoting digital finance, expanding financial openness, and advancing the internationalization of the Renminbi [2] - Current policies are expected to have a greater impact on the funding side of banks rather than the investment side, leading to a more favorable outlook for interest margins in 2025 compared to 2024 [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index as of May 30, 2025, include COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919) and Jizhong Energy (000937), with a combined weight of 15.83% [2]

Group 1 - The core theme of financial development is open cooperation, with foreign institutions playing a crucial role in China's modern financial system [1] - As of now, 42 out of the world's top 50 banks and nearly half of the 40 largest insurance companies have established a presence in China, with foreign banks and insurance institutions holding total assets exceeding 7 trillion yuan [1] - The market share of foreign insurance companies in China has increased from 4% in 2013 to 9% currently, indicating a positive growth trend [1] Group 2 - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has approved the establishment of insurance asset management companies by foreign firms, reflecting a commitment to expanding financial openness [2] - AIA Insurance's CEO expressed confidence in the long-term development of the Chinese market and emphasized the importance of aligning with the new development pattern and institutional opening opportunities [2] Group 3 - The regulatory body is working to enhance the rules and management systems, aiming to eliminate restrictive measures in the banking and insurance sectors, thus promoting a more inclusive environment for foreign institutions [3] - Experts believe that the high-level opening of the financial sector is essential for building a strong financial nation, with foreign institutions potentially bringing advanced experience in product design and risk management [4] Group 4 - The Chinese market presents significant opportunities for foreign financial institutions in various sectors, including consumption, technology, green finance, and wealth management [5] - The aging population in China is projected to exceed 400 million by 2035, creating a silver economy worth approximately 30 trillion yuan, which presents a substantial opportunity for the pension finance sector [6] Group 5 - The current financial asset allocation in Chinese households shows a high proportion of cash and savings, indicating a demand for diversified and high-quality financial products [7] - The average annual growth rate of assets under management in trust, wealth management, and insurance asset management has been around 8% over the past five years, making China the second-largest asset and wealth management market globally [7] Group 6 - The support for foreign institutions to expand in areas such as wealth management and insurance planning aligns with the ongoing financial opening policies in China, which have progressively removed restrictions on foreign ownership [8] - The involvement of foreign institutions in the financial sector is expected to enhance product innovation and service quality, thereby meeting the increasingly diverse financial needs of Chinese residents [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Pay attention to the advancement of the new energy upstream raw material production in the production industry and the promotion of financial industry opening - up policies in the service industry [1][2] - Monitor the trends of upstream, mid - stream, and downstream industries, as well as the recent slight decline in credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries [3][4][5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Mid - view Event Overview Production Industry - The "Fujian Province Hydrogen Energy Industry Innovation and Development Medium - and Long - Term Plan (2025 - 2035)" aims to achieve a green hydrogen production capacity of 30,000 tons/year and a hydrogen - based green fuel production capacity of 100,000 tons/year with a total hydrogen energy industry output value exceeding 60 billion yuan/year from 2025 - 2030. From 2030 - 2035, it aims to form an industrial system with diverse application scenarios and a total output value exceeding 300 billion yuan/year [1] Service Industry - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange drafted the "Notice on Deepening the Reform of Cross - border Investment and Financing Foreign Exchange Management (Draft for Comment)" involving three aspects: deepening cross - border investment foreign exchange management reform, cross - border financing foreign exchange management reform, and optimizing the facilitation of capital project income payments [2] - At the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, the central bank governor announced eight major financial opening - up measures in Shanghai, including setting up a transaction reporting repository, a digital RMB international operation center, a personal credit reporting agency, etc. [2] 2. Industry Overview Upstream - International crude oil prices are continuously rising, while egg prices are continuously falling [3] Mid - stream - The PX operating rate is at a high level, and the urea operating rate is continuously rising [4] Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are the same as the same period last year and at a near - three - year low. Domestic flight frequencies are cyclically decreasing [5] 3. Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [6] 4. Industry Credit Spread Tracking (as of 6/18) | Industry | Last Year's Same Period | One Month Ago | Last Week | This Week | Quantile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery | 60.79 | 66.88 | 59.28 | 56.87 | 0.00 | | Mining | 32.93 | 44.31 | 39.39 | 39.73 | 10.20 | | Chemical Industry | 71.19 | 59.18 | 20.99 | 50.48 | 0.20 | | Steel | 39.49 | 21.93 | 46.91 | 48.18 | 12.10 | | Non - ferrous Metals | 41.14 | 55.28 | 51.00 | 20.59 | 11.60 | | Electronics | 58.53 | 68.99 | 28.89 | 64.45 | 19.00 | | Automobile | 58.68 | 46.21 | 41.64 | 41.55 | 0.90 | | Household Appliances | 40.37 | 49.64 | 46.68 | 48.10 | 15.00 | | Food and Beverage | 40.25 | 41.59 | 36.25 | 37.52 | 4.20 | | Textile and Apparel | 48.03 | 51.98 | 51.69 | 52.77 | 12.20 | | Light Industry Manufacturing | 46.71 | 159.30 | 145.95 | 146.85 | 7.60 | | Pharmaceutical and Biological | 52.64 | 68.67 | 59.40 | 57.89 | 7.30 | | Public Utilities | 24.62 | 30.71 | 27.04 | 26.96 | 9.40 | | Transportation | 30.29 | 34.77 | 31.18 | 31.11 | 6.10 | | Real Estate | 219.38 | 117.08 | 103.67 | 102.13 | 4.80 | | Commerce and Trade | 42.35 | 47.40 | 41.84 | 42.96 | 5.60 | | Leisure Services | 75.74 | 122.67 | 122.09 | 123.60 | 98.70 | | Banking | 26.58 | 18.03 | 18.01 | 17.09 | 2.60 | | Non - banking Finance | 26.45 | 31.70 | 29.51 | 29.12 | 6.60 | | Comprehensive | 66.51 | 47.54 | 42.20 | 42.27 | 2.00 | | Building Materials | 33.99 | 43.29 | 38.25 | 39.05 | 9.90 | | Building Decoration | 40.92 | 53.96 | 60.30 | 51.44 | 11.90 | | Electrical Equipment | 48.87 | 80.41 | 79.15 | 80.50 | 45.40 | | Machinery and Equipment | 29.54 | 46.61 | 43.99 | 44.63 | 27.30 | | Computer | 66.64 | 55.32 | 46.46 | 48.05 | 0.40 | | Media | 232.69 | 42.80 | 39.69 | 40.20 | 1.50 | | Communications | 29.66 | 24.94 | 25.36 | 26.40 | 2.80 | [51] 5. Key Industry Price Index Tracking (as of 6/17) | Industry Name | Index Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Current Value | Year - on - Year | 5 - day Trend | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 2335.7 | 1.18% | | | | Spot price of eggs | Daily | Yuan/kg | 6/17 | 5.6 | - 3.95% | | | | Spot price of palm oil | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 8848.0 | 2.53% | | | | Spot price of cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 14846.5 | 1.53% | | | | Average wholesale price of pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 6/17 | 20.2 | - 0.34% | | | | Spot price of copper | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 78740.0 | - 0.70% | | | | Spot price of zinc | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 22008.0 | - 0.62% | | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 20633.3 | 2.18% | | | | Spot price of nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 120008.3 | - 2.34% | | | | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 16800.0 | 0.52% | | | | Spot price of rebar | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 3062.3 | - 0.90% | | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price of iron ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 736.6 | - 0.46% | | | | Spot price of wire rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 3252.5 | - 0.46% | | | | Spot price of glass | Daily | Yuan/square meter | 6/17 | 13.8 | 0.00% | | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 13718.3 | 0.35% | | | | China Plastic City Price Index | Daily | - | 6/17 | 831.1 | 0.81% | | | | Spot price of WTI crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 6/17 | 71.8 | 9.92% | | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 6/17 | 73.2 | 9.23% | | | Energy | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 3960.0 | - 0.95% | | | | Coal price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 731.0 | - 2.27% | | | | Spot price of PTA | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 5045.0 | 3.37% | | | Chemical Industry | Spot price of polyethylene | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 7438.3 | 1.04% | | | | Spot price of urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 1820.0 | - 0.09% | | | | Spot price of soda ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 1370.0 | 0.00% | | | | National cement price index | Daily | - | 6/17 | 140.5 | - 0.27% | | | Real Estate | Building materials comprehensive index | Daily | Points | 6/17 | 111.8 | 0.18% | | | | National concrete price index | Daily | Points | 6/17 | 99.0 | - 0.11% | | [52]

Group 1 - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum highlighted policies focusing on financial openness and technology, with structural monetary policy tools being piloted at the regional level to enhance infrastructure and improve the efficiency of cross-border payments, potentially increasing foreign investment in domestic assets [6][8][9] - The introduction of the "1+6" policy for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board aims to support technology innovation and promote the transformation of economic dynamics, with a focus on enhancing capital market resource allocation [6][10] - The establishment of a new Sci-Tech Growth Layer on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board is designed to accommodate unprofitable technology companies, thereby enhancing the inclusivity and adaptability of the capital market [11][12][14] Group 2 - The insurance sector is experiencing increased foreign participation, with foreign insurance companies' market share rising from 4% in 2013 to 9% currently, and a projected CAGR of 20% for foreign insurance premiums, outpacing the domestic industry's growth [19][21][22] - The aging population in China is expected to drive the silver economy, with the number of individuals aged 60 and above projected to exceed 400 million by 2035, creating significant opportunities in health care, long-term care, and wellness services [22][23] - The wealth management market in China is also expanding, with a shift from cash and savings to diversified asset allocation, driven by rising GDP per capita and increasing demand for equity assets and insurance products [22][23] Group 3 - The monetary policy framework is evolving, with structural monetary policy tools being expanded to support specific sectors such as technology and agriculture, while maintaining a balance between supporting the real economy and ensuring the stability of the banking system [24][25][26] - The introduction of various financial instruments, including technology innovation bonds and carbon reduction support tools, aims to enhance credit resources and align with the "Five Major Articles" strategy, focusing on consumption, technology, and green initiatives [26][27][28] - The establishment of Asset Investment Companies (AICs) is intended to provide "patient capital" for new productive forces, facilitating long-term investments in technology and innovation [28][29]

2025.06. 19 本文字数：1365，阅读时长大约2分钟 第一财经从业内了解到，和友邦保险资管由友邦保险集团在华独资子公司友邦人寿设立不同，荷兰全 球人寿保险集团（下称"荷兰全球人寿"）在沪筹建的保险资管公司并非由其在华合资公司同方全球人 寿设立，而是直接由境外保险母公司设立的外资独资保险资管公司。据媒体报道，金融监管总局近日 批复，同意荷兰全球人寿筹建荷全保险资产管理有限公司。业内人士分析称，由境外保险集团直接设 立，也即未来该资管公司将直接由集团管理，一方面有利于集团对其经营管理的更加直接高效，另一 方面也显示出外资对于中国保险资管市场的重视。 荷兰全球人寿对此回应第一财经称："我们很高兴地宣布，荷兰全球人寿（Aegon）已获准在中国设 立一家保险资产管理公司。我们相信有能力为中国市场的发展作出贡献。" 公开信息显示，荷兰全球人寿是一家拥有近180年的国际金融服务集团，在阿姆斯特丹、纽约证券交 易所上市，截至2022年末，总资产超过4000亿欧元。目前荷兰全球人寿在中国布局了一家保险合资 企业（同方全球人寿保险）、一家资产管理合资企业（兴证全球基金）以及一家私募基金公司（ 荷 全 私募基金）。 事实 ...

证券研究报告 陆家嘴论坛：货币政策对内搞活市场， 对外加快开放 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 19 日│中国内地 动态点评 研究员 常慧丽，PhD SAC No. S0570520110002 SFC No. BJC906 changhuili@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 易峘 SAC No. S0570520100005 SFC No. AMH263 evayi@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 6 月 18 日（周三），2025 年陆家嘴论坛在上海开幕。开幕式上，央行行长 潘功胜宣布 8 项金融开放措施，聚焦金融基础设施、数字金融、跨境贸易和 监管创新，显示央行搞活国内金融市场、加大对外开放的政策取向。 在政策立场方面，货币政策对内或以结构性政策为主，进一步降准降息空 间可能有限。潘行长在主题演讲中对货币政策的阐述不多，提及央行坚持支 持性货币政策立场，并表示将继续做好货币政策框架转型的评估和完善。如 我们在中期策略报告《"再平衡"中孕育新机遇》（2025/6/3）中分析，银行 净息差偏低可能制约央行进一步降息的幅度，预计下半年小幅降准 50 个基 ...