Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling over 2% and the ChiNext Index dropping over 4% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.97 trillion, an increase of 257.5 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - By the end of last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.41%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.02% [1] Investment Strategies - Huatai Securities emphasized the importance of focusing on mid-term themes and maintaining a safety margin in current market conditions, suggesting that the market adjustment has begun to show potential for recovery [2] - The firm noted that the current market valuation is close to a "reasonable" central point, and if there is an overshoot, investors could consider increasing their positions [2] - Recommended sectors include low-level domestic consumption, domestic computing power, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while continuing to hold large financial stocks to reduce volatility [2] Monetary Policy Insights - CITIC Securities highlighted that the recent issuance of offshore central bank bills in Hong Kong aims to stabilize the offshore RMB exchange rate and curb speculative trading [3] - The issuance is intended to tighten offshore RMB liquidity, thereby increasing the cost of short-selling and preventing a consensus on unilateral depreciation [3] - The central bank's strategy is based on three considerations: managing liquidity to avoid excessive market fluctuations, enhancing the competitiveness of the offshore RMB bond market, and preventing abnormal cross-border capital flows to maintain financial stability [3] Policy Focus - Zhongtai Securities indicated that the current "anti-involution" policies are likely to focus more on key sectors with global "rare earth-like" characteristics, particularly in industries like photovoltaics, batteries, and automobiles, where low-price competition has intensified [4] - The characteristics of these key sectors include holding dominant capacity and technology in the global market, facing challenges from disorderly expansion and low-price competition, and having potential for long-term growth driven by external demand [4] - The policies aim to ensure healthy industry development and leverage these sectors as strategic tools or bargaining chips between nations [4]

中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，近期离岸人民币有所走弱，央行此时发行离岸央票，一方面能够收紧 离岸人民币流动性，提高做空成本，抑制投机性交易，另一方面能稳定离岸人民币汇率预期，防止形成 单边贬值共识。明明又称，尽管2025年美联储处于降息周期，但三季度以来美元指数出现边际抬升。央 行维持离岸央票高位发行，主要基于三点考量：一是满足常态化流动性管理需求，避免市场过度波动； 二是完善离岸人民币债券市场，提升其国际竞争力；三是防范跨境资本异常流动，维护金融稳定。 ...

央行将在港发行 450亿元央票 满足离岸市场投资需求 11月24日，中国人民银行将在香港招标发行450亿元两期中央银行票据（下称"离岸央票"），包括300亿 元3个月（91天）期和150亿元1年期。两期央票均自2025年11月26日起息。 这是2025年以来央行第六次发行离岸央票。从发行节奏看，今年以来中国人民银行在1月、2月、6月、8 月、9月和11月分批发行离岸央票，单次规模维持在300亿元至600亿元之间，发行步入常态化。其中，1 月和9月单次发行规模达600亿元，同为史上最大单次发行规模。 除了丰富离岸市场的人民币投资选择，离岸央票也在汇率预期管理中扮演着"稳定器"角色。中信证券首 席经济学家明明对上证报记者表示，近期离岸人民币有所走弱，央行此时发行离岸央票，一方面能够收 紧离岸人民币流动性，提高做空成本，抑制投机性交易，另一方面能稳定离岸人民币汇率预期，防止形 成单边贬值共识。 他表示，离岸央票的发行属于稳定外汇市场的常规手段，旨在释放稳汇率政策信号，防范跨境资本异常 流动，维护金融安全。 放眼更广维度，离岸央票发行规模近年来延续高位。截至本次发行，中国人民银行今年在香港发行央票 总规模已达3000 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan exchange rate indices showed an overall increase in the week of June 20, with the CFETS index rising by 0.43% to 95.92, the BIS index increasing by 0.58% to 101.51, and the SDR index up by 0.39% to 90.75 [1][2]. Exchange Rate Indices - CFETS RMB Exchange Rate Index: 95.92 [2] - BIS Currency Basket RMB Exchange Rate Index: 101.51 [2] - SDR Currency Basket RMB Exchange Rate Index: 90.75 [2] Market Analysis - The US dollar index rebounded slightly by approximately 0.5% last week, while most non-US currencies depreciated, with the Norwegian krone dropping 1.89% due to an unexpected rate cut [5]. - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.1820, a slight decrease of 0.01%, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.14% to 7.17939 [5]. - The RMB central parity rate against the USD increased by 0.11% to 7.1695, indicating a stable performance of the RMB against the USD [5]. Policy Signals - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) issued 300 billion yuan in offshore central bank bills, signaling a commitment to stabilize the exchange rate amid a strengthening dollar [6]. - Analysts suggest that the PBOC's actions may support the RMB's appreciation in the short term, as the implied volatility of the RMB remains low [6]. Domestic Financial Developments - The PBOC announced eight significant financial opening measures aimed at enhancing the international financial center in Shanghai, including the establishment of a digital RMB international operation center and a personal credit institution [7]. - The National Financial Supervision Administration plans to release an action plan to support Shanghai's development as an international financial center, focusing on innovation in technology finance and cross-border finance [7]. Economic Indicators - From January to May, China's general public budget revenue was 96,623 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 6.2% [8]. - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, growing by 6.4% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [9].