财经五月花 . 以下文章来源于财经五月花 ，作者财经五月花 盘面上的反复拉锯也牵动着广大出口企业的心弦。 "由于此前美元坚挺、美元利率较高，国内大量贸易顺差没有结汇。"浙商证券宏观联席首席分析师廖博对《财经》表示，2025年9月，美联储开启降息周 期，美元趋于走弱推动人民币升值，进而引发企业结汇需求上升。 PingPong首席汇率风险管理专家牛纳庆对《财经》表示，过去一周，向他咨询汇率相关问题的客户变得异常密集。"大家希望了解银行金融机构对汇率的 观点，作为企业年末结汇操作的参考。" 《财经》杂志新媒体矩阵成员 · 金融专号，聚焦金融前沿，探知资本真相。 Wind数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，美元指数较年初下跌了9.04%。同期，在岸、离岸人民币兑美元汇率分别升值约4.43%和5.18% 文 ｜ 唐郡 顾欣宇 编辑 ｜ 张威 来源｜ 财经五月花（Caijing-MayFlower） 封面来源 ｜ Unsplash 全球多个金融市场因圣诞休市之际，人民币兑美元汇率时隔 15个月再度升破7.0关口，多空双方在该点位上展开激烈争夺。 2025年12月25日-26日，离岸人民币数次上破7.0关口。26日上午， ...

12月25日早晨，离岸市场一瞬间安静下来，屏幕上那一抹6.9978像是被点破的气球，瞬间引出屋内的窃窃私语。 我在上海的一家债券交易室站着，几台显示器一左一右滚动着美元指数和人民币汇率，交易员们面无表情，却在耳机里低声交流着应对方案。 那天中间价被调升79个基点，外汇中心的数字像一枚冰冷的判决书，告诉市场监管层正在温和收紧节奏。 从年初的7.27起步到4月触及7.42879，再到11月的反弹，人民币兑美元像一列被看不见牵引的列车，在外部风向改变时忽然加速。 美元指数自11月下旬开启下行通道，市场上关于美联储降息的预期像病毒一样传播开来，11月20日至12月17日间下跌1.72%，年内累计近10%的走弱，成为 人民币这波上行最重要的外因。 在北京的一次央行工作会议上，官员们重复着"防范超调"的字眼，会议室里的饮水机在午后发出单调的声响，像是在提醒人们政策不会毫无控制地放任市 场。 境内外资金流动并非全然疯狂，国有大行通过温和买入美元来缓和升值节奏，离岸央票的发行是工具箱里的一把钥匙，1月15日在香港招标的那张600亿元央 票至今还在市场记忆里回荡。 外贸企业在华东的一家仓库里加班结汇，工人们把纸箱堆得高高的，结 ...

展望未来，为促进离岸央票市场稳定健康发展，必须在人民币国际化与构建国际货币竞争新格局的 整体框架下统筹规划，加强离岸央票的发展与在岸货币政策、汇率形成机制改革的协调配合，稳定推进 金融双向开放，最终形成功能完备、机制灵活、与国际规则接轨的成熟市场体系。 在发行机制上，可探索建立更加透明、可预期的常态化发行时间表，依据市场利率波动灵活微调发 行规模与频率，增强其对离岸人民币收益率曲线的引导效能。同时，应努力丰富央票的期限结构，适时 引入更长期限的品种，以满足国际投资者多元化的资产配置与风险管理需求。多期限品种的连续、平滑 发行，更有助于构筑完整的离岸人民币利率期限结构，为其他人民币金融产品的定价提供坚实基础。 在市场建设层面，需着力提升二级市场的流动性与深度。应考虑在提高跨境结算效率、完善二级市 场流动性支持、强化信息披露等方面进一步优化，增强央票的可交易性与价格发现功能。应积极探索离 岸央票在跨境抵押、流动性管理工具等领域的创新应用，增强其对国际金融机构的吸引力。应结合人民 币国际化战略，推动央票与其他离岸金融产品的联动发展。应关注投资者结构的多元化，鼓励境外机构 投资者、国际金融组织以及企业资金积极参与央票 ...

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of offshore central bank bills by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) in Hong Kong reflects a strategic move to enhance the internationalization of the Renminbi and manage liquidity in the offshore market [1][2][5]. Group 1: Issuance Details - The recent issuance includes 450 billion yuan in two phases: 300 billion yuan for a 3-month term and 150 billion yuan for a 1-year term, bringing the total issuance in Hong Kong for 2025 to 3000 billion yuan [1]. - The issuance frequency has become more regular, with the PBOC issuing offshore central bank bills approximately every one and a half months, adapting the volume based on market demand [2][3]. Group 2: Market Impact - The offshore central bank bills serve as a flexible tool for managing Renminbi liquidity, positively influencing the supply-demand dynamics in the offshore market [2][3]. - The issuance is seen as a stabilizing factor for Renminbi exchange rate expectations, providing high-quality financial products in the offshore market and reinforcing Hong Kong's position as a Renminbi center [4][5]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The consistent issuance of offshore central bank bills is expected to create a solid foundation for the offshore Renminbi market, contributing to financial market stability and supporting the integration of Hong Kong into national development [7]. - Analysts predict that the Renminbi may experience a moderate appreciation due to favorable external conditions and domestic economic support, alongside the PBOC's balanced approach to exchange rate management [7].

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling over 2% and the ChiNext Index dropping over 4% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.97 trillion, an increase of 257.5 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - By the end of last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.41%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.02% [1] Investment Strategies - Huatai Securities emphasized the importance of focusing on mid-term themes and maintaining a safety margin in current market conditions, suggesting that the market adjustment has begun to show potential for recovery [2] - The firm noted that the current market valuation is close to a "reasonable" central point, and if there is an overshoot, investors could consider increasing their positions [2] - Recommended sectors include low-level domestic consumption, domestic computing power, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while continuing to hold large financial stocks to reduce volatility [2] Monetary Policy Insights - CITIC Securities highlighted that the recent issuance of offshore central bank bills in Hong Kong aims to stabilize the offshore RMB exchange rate and curb speculative trading [3] - The issuance is intended to tighten offshore RMB liquidity, thereby increasing the cost of short-selling and preventing a consensus on unilateral depreciation [3] - The central bank's strategy is based on three considerations: managing liquidity to avoid excessive market fluctuations, enhancing the competitiveness of the offshore RMB bond market, and preventing abnormal cross-border capital flows to maintain financial stability [3] Policy Focus - Zhongtai Securities indicated that the current "anti-involution" policies are likely to focus more on key sectors with global "rare earth-like" characteristics, particularly in industries like photovoltaics, batteries, and automobiles, where low-price competition has intensified [4] - The characteristics of these key sectors include holding dominant capacity and technology in the global market, facing challenges from disorderly expansion and low-price competition, and having potential for long-term growth driven by external demand [4] - The policies aim to ensure healthy industry development and leverage these sectors as strategic tools or bargaining chips between nations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent weakening of the offshore RMB has prompted the central bank to issue offshore central bank bills to tighten liquidity and stabilize exchange rate expectations [1] Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The issuance of offshore central bank bills aims to increase the cost of short-selling and curb speculative trading [1] - Maintaining high levels of offshore central bank bill issuance is based on three considerations: managing liquidity, enhancing the competitiveness of the offshore RMB bond market, and preventing abnormal cross-border capital flows [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Despite the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle by 2025, the dollar index has shown marginal increases since the third quarter [1] - The central bank's actions are intended to avoid excessive market volatility and ensure financial stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to issue 45 billion yuan in offshore central bank bills in Hong Kong, which aims to meet the investment demand in the offshore market and stabilize the offshore RMB exchange rate [1][2]. Group 1: Issuance Details - On November 24, the PBOC will auction 45 billion yuan in two phases of central bank bills, including 30 billion yuan for a 3-month term and 15 billion yuan for a 1-year term, both starting interest on November 26, 2025 [1]. - This marks the sixth issuance of offshore central bank bills by the PBOC in 2025, with issuance patterns normalizing throughout the year, maintaining a single issuance scale between 30 billion yuan and 60 billion yuan [1][2]. Group 2: Market Impact - The issuance of offshore central bank bills provides high-credit-rated RMB financial products, enhancing the RMB bond yield curve in Hong Kong and reinforcing its status as an international financial center and offshore RMB hub [1][2]. - The offshore central bank bills also play a stabilizing role in managing exchange rate expectations, particularly in light of recent depreciation of the offshore RMB [1][2]. Group 3: Broader Trends - The total issuance of central bank bills in Hong Kong by the PBOC has reached 300 billion yuan in 2024, continuing a high issuance trend [2]. - The balance of offshore central bank bills has increased from 80 billion yuan at the end of 2022 to an expected 140 billion yuan by the end of 2024, indicating growing demand for quality RMB assets in the offshore market [2]. - The PBOC's strategy includes maintaining high issuance levels to manage liquidity, enhance the competitiveness of the offshore RMB bond market, and prevent abnormal cross-border capital flows [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan exchange rate indices showed an overall increase in the week of June 20, with the CFETS index rising by 0.43% to 95.92, the BIS index increasing by 0.58% to 101.51, and the SDR index up by 0.39% to 90.75 [1][2]. Exchange Rate Indices - CFETS RMB Exchange Rate Index: 95.92 [2] - BIS Currency Basket RMB Exchange Rate Index: 101.51 [2] - SDR Currency Basket RMB Exchange Rate Index: 90.75 [2] Market Analysis - The US dollar index rebounded slightly by approximately 0.5% last week, while most non-US currencies depreciated, with the Norwegian krone dropping 1.89% due to an unexpected rate cut [5]. - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.1820, a slight decrease of 0.01%, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.14% to 7.17939 [5]. - The RMB central parity rate against the USD increased by 0.11% to 7.1695, indicating a stable performance of the RMB against the USD [5]. Policy Signals - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) issued 300 billion yuan in offshore central bank bills, signaling a commitment to stabilize the exchange rate amid a strengthening dollar [6]. - Analysts suggest that the PBOC's actions may support the RMB's appreciation in the short term, as the implied volatility of the RMB remains low [6]. Domestic Financial Developments - The PBOC announced eight significant financial opening measures aimed at enhancing the international financial center in Shanghai, including the establishment of a digital RMB international operation center and a personal credit institution [7]. - The National Financial Supervision Administration plans to release an action plan to support Shanghai's development as an international financial center, focusing on innovation in technology finance and cross-border finance [7]. Economic Indicators - From January to May, China's general public budget revenue was 96,623 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 6.2% [8]. - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, growing by 6.4% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [9].