工业和信息化部等部门联合印发《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》，明确未来两年钢铁行 业增加值年均增长目标设定在4%左右。该方案以"稳增长、防内卷"为核心，为中国钢铁行业的结构性 调整与高质量发展指明实施路径。《方案》提出，实施产能产量精准调控、推进钢铁企业分级分类管 理，严禁新增产能，引导资源要素向优势企业集聚，通过产量调控促进优胜劣汰，实现供需动态平衡。 宏观要闻 "十四五"以来我国外汇储备始终稳定在3万亿美元以上 中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年9月20日，贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年 期LPR为3.00%，5年期以上LPR为3.50%，均较上月保持不变。LPR自今年5月下调之后，已有4个月按 兵不动。 钢铁行业未来两年目标确定 9月LPR继续按兵不动 ...

黑色金属日报 2025 年 09 月 22 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 | | | | 螺纹 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 期货(元/吨) | | | | | | | | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | RB05 | 3244 | 3232 | 12 | HC05-RB05 | 144 | 152 | -8 | | RB10 | 3095 | 3078 | 17 | HC10-RB10 | 325 | 347 | -22 | | RB01 | 3182 | 3172 | 13 | HC01-RB01 | 195 | 202 | -7 | | RB01-RB05 | -59 | -60 | 1 | RB10-RB01 | -90 | -94 | 4 | | RB05-RB10 | 149 | 154 | -5 | | | | | | 05合约螺纹盘面利润 | -78 | -104 | 26 | RB05/105 | 4.13 | 4.11 | 0.02 | | 10合约螺 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Ribbed Bars**: The main futures price fluctuated strongly, with a daily increase of 0.85%. In the current situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the fundamentals of ribbed bars have improved marginally. However, the downstream market has not improved, and concerns about demand remain. The improvement strength needs to be tracked. The relative positive factor is the rising cost. With the game of multiple and short factors, the steel price is expected to maintain a stable and fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4][37]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: The main futures price fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.54%. Currently, the demand resilience of hot - rolled coils is weakening, while the supply remains at a high level. The supply - demand pattern has weakened, the inventory has increased again, and the coil price continues to be under pressure. The relative positive factors are the rising cost and production limit disturbances. It is expected that the subsequent trend will be weak and fluctuating. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4][37]. - **Iron Ore**: The main futures price fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.37%. Currently, the demand for iron ore is performing well, supporting the high - level ore price to fluctuate upward. However, the demand is expected to weaken, and the supply is also rising. The fundamentals have not been substantially improved. Coupled with the relatively high valuation, the pre - holiday trend is cautiously optimistic, and precautions should be taken against the intensification of industrial contradictions [4][38]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - **Air - Conditioner Production Scheduling**: In October 2025, the production scheduling of air - conditioners continued to decline. The total retail volume of air - conditioners in August increased by 1.1% year - on - year, but the growth rate has decreased significantly. In the first two weeks of September, the online and offline sales volumes decreased by 35.5% and 30% respectively. In terms of production, the domestic sales production scheduling in October was 5.61 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8%, and the export production scheduling was 6.34 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7% [6]. - **New Contracts of Construction Central Enterprises**: As of September 22, 2025, five construction central enterprises announced their new contract amounts in the first eight months of 2025, with a total of 4.713239 trillion yuan. China State Construction ranked first with a new contract amount of 2.8799 trillion yuan in the first eight months. In the construction business, the new contract amount in the first eight months was 2.6644 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%, of which the infrastructure business was 0.8954 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. In the real estate business, the contract sales volume in the first eight months was 0.2155 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9% [7]. - **Steel Industry Plan**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Steel Industry (2025 - 2026)". The overall goal is to achieve an average annual growth of about 4% in the added value of the steel industry from 2025 to 2026, with the economic benefits stabilizing and rebounding, the market supply - demand becoming more balanced, the industrial structure being more optimized, the effective supply capacity continuously increasing, and the levels of green - low - carbon and digital development being significantly improved [8]. Spot Market - The report provides the spot prices of ribbed bars, hot - rolled coils, Tangshan billets, Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, and other products, as well as the prices of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, freight rates, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index [9]. Futures Market - **Ribbed Bars**: The closing price of the active contract was 3,185 yuan, with a rise of 0.85%. The trading volume was 1,652,529 lots, an increase of 401,938 lots, and the open interest was 1,861,142 lots, a decrease of 109,368 lots [11]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: The closing price of the active contract was 3,380 yuan, with a rise of 0.54%. The trading volume was 548,824 lots, an increase of 89,152 lots, and the open interest was 1,382,769 lots, a decrease of 30,384 lots [11]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the active contract was 808.5 yuan, with a rise of 0.37%. The trading volume was 409,502 lots, an increase of 29,691 lots, and the open interest was 562,024 lots, a decrease of 12,497 lots [11]. Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: The report provides charts of ribbed bar inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social warehouses), hot - rolled coil inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social warehouses) [13][14][16]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts of iron ore port inventory (seasonal, total inventory), inventory of 247 steel mills' iron ore are presented [18][22][24]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts of the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit - loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills are included [26][28][32]. 后市研判 - **Ribbed Bars**: The supply - demand pattern has improved. The weekly output of ribbed bars decreased by 54,800 tons, continuing the downward trend. The demand has improved, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 119,600 tons. However, the demand improvement needs to be tracked. The steel price is expected to be stable and fluctuating [37]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: The supply - demand pattern has changed. The weekly output increased by 13,500 tons, and the demand has weakened. The demand resilience is weakening, and the price is expected to be weak and fluctuating [37]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern has changed. The terminal consumption of iron ore continues to rise, but the demand is expected to weaken. The supply is increasing. The pre - holiday trend is cautiously optimistic [38].

工业和信息化部有关负责人解读《工作方案》时表示，《工作方案》坚持问题导向、目标导向，聚焦强 治理、优供给、促转型、扩消费、增合作等，共提出五个方面10条具体举措： 本报讯(记者郭冀川)9月22日，工业和信息化部等五部门联合发布《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案(2025-2026 年)》(以下简称《工作方案》)。 《工作方案》提出目标，2025年至2026年，钢铁行业增加值年均增长4%左右，经济效益企稳回升，市 场供需更趋平衡，产业结构更加优化，有效供给能力不断增强，绿色低碳、数字化发展水平显著提升。 《工作方案》介绍，钢铁产业是国民经济的重要基础产业、支柱产业，是关乎工业稳定增长、经济平稳 运行的重要领域。当前，钢铁行业供给总量过大，有效需求不足，供需失衡是影响行业发展质量和效益 的主要矛盾。为贯彻中央经济工作会议精神，促进钢铁行业平稳运行和结构优化升级，制定本《工作方 案》。 四是聚焦扩大有效消费，提出挖掘钢材应用需求，深化钢铁与船舶等重点用钢领域的上下游合作，积极 推广钢结构在住宅、公共建筑、中小跨径桥梁等领域应用，激发释放消费潜力。 五是聚焦深化开放合作，提出强化钢铁产品出口管理，维护出口竞争秩序，优化钢铁出口 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, has issued a plan for the steel industry aimed at achieving an average annual growth of around 4% in value-added output from 2025 to 2026, with a focus on stabilizing economic benefits, balancing supply and demand, optimizing industrial structure, enhancing effective supply capacity, and significantly improving green low-carbon and digital development levels [1] Group 1: Industry Management and Capacity Control - The plan emphasizes strengthening industry management and promoting survival of the fittest through precise control of capacity and output [2] - It includes revising the capacity replacement implementation measures, increasing the intensity of capacity reduction, and supporting low-carbon iron-making processes and high-end special steel projects with differentiated replacement ratios [2] - The policy aims to facilitate the transfer of steel production capacity from key air pollution prevention areas to other regions and continues to implement output reduction policies to maintain dynamic balance between supply and demand [2] Group 2: Technological Innovation and Supply Capability - The plan focuses on enhancing the supply capacity of high-end products by organizing collaboration among steel enterprises, upstream and downstream companies, universities, and research institutions [3] - It aims to improve the quality of bulk products and establish green low-carbon product standards, promoting the certification of green low-carbon steel products [3] - The plan also emphasizes stabilizing the supply of raw materials by accelerating the commencement and expansion of key domestic iron ore projects [3] Group 3: Investment Expansion and Market Demand - The plan encourages effective investment and promotes transformation and upgrading by updating process equipment and supporting the application of advanced electric furnaces and special smelting equipment [4] - It aims to accelerate digital transformation in the steel industry and develop evaluation standards for digital transformation levels [4] - The plan seeks to stimulate market consumption potential by deepening cooperation in key steel application areas and promoting the use of steel structures in various construction projects [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have released a plan to promote stable growth in the steel industry, targeting an average annual growth of around 4% in value added from 2025 to 2026, with a focus on economic recovery, balanced supply and demand, optimized industrial structure, enhanced effective supply capacity, and significant improvements in green, low-carbon, and digital development levels [1][7][25]. Summary by Sections Overall Requirements - The plan emphasizes the integration of quality and efficiency, focusing on technological and industrial innovation, and enhancing supply-demand adaptability while prohibiting new capacity and implementing production reductions [6][24]. Main Goals - The steel industry aims for an average annual growth of approximately 4% in value added from 2025 to 2026, with economic benefits stabilizing and improving, a more balanced market supply and demand, an optimized industrial structure, and significant advancements in green, low-carbon, and digital development [7][25]. Work Measures - **Strengthening Industry Management**: Implement precise capacity and production control, promote the exit of inefficient capacity, and support leading enterprises to achieve dynamic balance in supply and demand [8][29]. - **Enhancing Technological Innovation**: Focus on improving the supply capacity of high-end products and upgrading the quality of bulk products while stabilizing raw material supply [9][36]. - **Expanding Effective Investment**: Accelerate the update of processes and equipment, promote digital transformation, and advance green and low-carbon modifications [10][42]. - **Expanding Market Demand**: Explore steel application needs and deepen cooperation in key steel usage sectors [12][49]. - **Deepening Open Cooperation**: Enhance international development and optimize the export structure of steel products [13][53]. Implementation Guarantees - **Organizational Support**: Local governments should prioritize stable growth in the steel industry and refine work measures for task implementation [14][56]. - **Policy Support**: Utilize existing financial policies to support the steel industry's transformation and innovation [14][56]. - **Monitoring and Scheduling**: Conduct regular monitoring and establish early warning mechanisms for capacity to ensure stable industry operations [15][56].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other governmental departments, has issued a "Steel Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)" aiming for an average annual growth of around 4% in the steel industry's added value, with a focus on balancing supply and demand, optimizing industrial structure, and enhancing green and digital development levels during this period [1]. Group 1: Capacity and Production Control - The plan emphasizes precise control of capacity and production, including revising the capacity replacement implementation measures and increasing support for low-carbon steelmaking processes such as electric arc furnaces and hydrogen metallurgy [2]. - It aims to strengthen industry management and promote the survival of the fittest by enhancing capacity replacement and project approval processes [2]. Group 2: Technological Innovation and Supply Capability - The plan calls for enhancing the supply capacity of high-end products, focusing on key steel materials needed for high-end equipment and core components, and promoting collaboration among steel enterprises, downstream industries, and research institutions [3]. - It also emphasizes the need for quality upgrades in bulk products and the establishment of green low-carbon product standards [3]. Group 3: Investment and Market Demand - The plan proposes to promote effective investment and facilitate transformation by updating processes and equipment, including the upgrade of outdated equipment and the promotion of advanced electric furnaces [4]. - It encourages the exploration of steel application demands and the establishment of long-term cooperation agreements to stabilize the industrial chain [4]. Group 4: International Cooperation - The plan highlights the importance of strengthening export management of steel products and optimizing the export product structure to enhance international competitiveness [5]. Group 5: Policy Support - The plan stresses the need for local governments to prioritize the stabilization of the steel industry and to implement detailed measures for task execution [6]. - It also mentions the use of financial tools and policies to support the industry's transformation and the cultivation of high-end talent in new materials and digital transformation [7].

在需求端，方案围绕深化重点领域合作、推广重点领域应用、培育供应链服务平台三方面挖掘钢材应用 需求，维护钢材市场稳定，激发市场消费潜力。 此外，方案还提出推进工艺设备更新、加快数字化转型、推进绿色低碳改造，促进转型升级，通过强化 钢铁产品出口管理等方式提高国际化发展水平。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:谷玥】 方案还明确了一系列2025年至2026年钢铁行业稳增长主要目标：经济效益企稳回升，市场供需更趋平 衡，产业结构更加优化，有效供给能力不断增强，绿色低碳、数字化发展水平显著提升。 当前，钢铁行业供给总量过大，有效需求不足，供需失衡是影响行业发展质量和效益的主要矛盾。方案 从供需两端协同发力提出五方面十项工作举措，推动钢铁行业实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。 在供给端，实施产能产量精准调控、推进钢铁企业分级分类管理，加强行业管理，促进优胜劣汰；增强 高端产品供给能力、促进大宗产品质量升级、稳定原燃料供给，提升有效供给能力。 新华社北京9月22日电（记者王悦阳）记者22日从工业和信息化部获悉，工业和信息化部、自然资源 部、生态环境部、商务部、市场监管总局五部门日前联合印发《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026 年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, has issued the "Steel Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of around 4% in the steel industry's added value, with a focus on optimizing industrial structure and enhancing green, low-carbon, and digital development levels [1][2]. Group 1: Key Measures - The plan outlines five key measures: strengthening industry management, enhancing technological innovation, expanding effective investment, broadening market demand, and deepening open cooperation [2]. - Industry management will be improved through capacity reduction and replacement, production control, and classification management to promote supply-demand balance and phase out inefficient capacity [2][3]. - Technological innovation will focus on enhancing high-end product supply capabilities and improving the quality of bulk products while ensuring stable raw material supply [2][3]. Group 2: Specific Initiatives - The plan emphasizes precise control of capacity and production, revising capacity replacement methods, and supporting low-carbon iron-making processes [3]. - It aims to promote quality upgrades in bulk products, particularly in key steel-consuming industries such as automotive and machinery, while establishing green low-carbon product standards [3][4]. - To stabilize raw material supply, the plan encourages the commencement of key domestic iron ore projects and supports long-term agreements between steel and coking coal enterprises [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have released the "Steel Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", focusing on precise control of capacity and output, promoting green low-carbon transformation, and enhancing industry management to achieve balanced supply and demand [1][5][19]. Group 1: Overall Requirements and Goals - The plan aims for an average annual growth of around 4% in the steel industry's added value from 2025 to 2026, with improved economic efficiency and a more balanced market supply and demand [7][20]. - The overall approach emphasizes quality and efficiency, integrating technological and industrial innovation, and enhancing supply-demand adaptability [6][26]. Group 2: Key Measures - Implementation of precise capacity and output control, including revising capacity replacement methods and supporting low-carbon steel production projects [8][9]. - Promotion of green low-carbon transformation, with a target to complete ultra-low emission modifications by the end of 2025 [12][19]. - Strengthening industry management through classification and evaluation of steel enterprises, guiding resources towards leading companies [9][10]. Group 3: Investment and Upgrading - Encouragement of effective investment to promote technological upgrades and digital transformation within the industry [11][22]. - Support for the construction of digital carbon management centers and the establishment of carbon footprint accounting standards for steel products [12][22]. Group 4: Expanding Consumption and International Cooperation - Exploration of steel application demands and fostering cooperation in key sectors such as shipbuilding [13][22]. - Promotion of international development by optimizing steel product export management and enhancing competitiveness in global markets [14][22]. Group 5: Implementation Guarantees - Emphasis on organizational support and collaboration among various levels of government and industry associations to ensure the effective implementation of the plan [23][24]. - Utilization of financial policies to support the steel industry's transformation and development [24][62].