Report Information - Report Type: Daily Report on Container Shipping Index [18] - Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price increase in July was better than expected, and the SCFIS settlement index rebounded above 2400 points. Major airlines remained stable, possibly supported by good cargo demand. The 08 contract was still at a discount to the spot index and had some room for repair. For the traditional off - season in October, short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread arbitrage opportunities at low prices should be focused on [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The price increase in July was better than expected. The SCFIS settlement index rose above 2400 points. Maersk's mid - July quotes were slightly higher than the first half of the month, and other airlines' quotes converged to $3300 - 3500. In August, only a few airlines had reported freight rates. HPL continued to use the late - July rates, and CMA CGM increased rates by $800 compared to late July [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Referring to historical patterns, the peak season usually reached its high in the third week of July, and freight rates would return to early - July levels by late August. The 08 contract was at a discount to the spot index and had room for repair. For the traditional off - season in October, short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread arbitrage opportunities at low prices should be focused on [8]. 2. Industry News - **Overall Market**: From July 7 - 11, the China export container shipping market was generally stable. The comprehensive index decreased slightly. Different routes had different price trends due to supply - demand differences [9]. - **European Route**: The eurozone's July SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, indicating stable economic recovery. However, the EU - US tariff negotiation had no clear result, and the market faced uncertainties. Transport demand was stable, and market freight rates were flat. On July 11, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $2099/TEU, down 0.1% [9]. - **Mediterranean Route**: The supply - demand situation was weaker than the European route, and the spot booking price decreased slightly. On July 11, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2667/TEU, down 7.0% [9]. - **North American Route**: The "tariff war" was a focus. Trump extended the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period to August 1. The US set new tariff rates and planned to impose a 50% tariff on copper. Transport demand was stable, and market freight rates rebounded. On July 11, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to US West and East basic ports were $2194/FEU and $4172/FEU, up 5.0% and 1.2% respectively [9][10]. - **EU - US Trade Negotiation**: The US and the EU were trying to reach a temporary trade agreement, but automobile and agricultural product tariffs were key issues. Any agreement might be overturned by Trump. The US imposed 50% tariffs on EU steel and aluminum products, 25% on automobiles, and 10% on other goods. The EU planned counter - measures, with the scale adjusted from 950 billion euros to 720 billion euros [10]. - **Trump's Tariff Plan**: Trump planned to impose a 15% or 20% unified tariff on almost all trading partners that had not been taxed [10]. - **Yemen Houthi Rebels**: The Houthi rebels in Yemen would continue to ban Israeli - related ships from passing through the Red Sea and other areas as long as Israel continued its aggression and blockade of Gaza [10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Route | July 14, 2025 | July 7, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Route (Basic Ports) | 2421.94 | 2258.04 | 163.9 | 7.3% | | SCFIS: US West Route (Basic Ports) | 1266.59 | 1557.77 | - 291.18 | - 18.7% | [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - The trading data of container shipping European line futures on July 15 showed that different contracts had different price increases, with EC2510 and EC2512 having relatively large increases of 15.38% and 16.06% respectively [6]. 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provided charts on global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [17][20]

Core Viewpoint - The shipping index (European line) futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 1598.0 points, with a current report of 1575.3 points, reflecting a rise of 9.78% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - One德期货 maintains a short-term view of a fluctuating shipping market, suggesting a cautious approach [2] - 南华期货 indicates a higher likelihood of a fluctuating or upward trend in shipping prices, supported by recent increases in the SCFIS European line index, which reported 2421.94 points, up 7.3% [2][3] - The increase in exports to the EU, amounting to 2.82 trillion yuan with a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, is expected to continue, although new product demand may be suppressed due to high inventory levels [2] Group 2: Price Trends and Expectations - The main contract has shifted to the EC2510 contract, with Maersk's European line spot quotes showing a slight upward trend, influenced by market sentiment amid geopolitical developments [3] - Despite the positive sentiment, other shipping companies have begun to lower their mid-to-late July quotes, indicating that significant price increases may be limited unless unexpected factors arise [3]

集运欧线盘面大幅走高，涨幅超7%，马士基欧线现舱报价持续小幅上行，后市涨势能否持续？机构分 析表示，多空因素交织，短期对集运市场维持偏震荡的判断。 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Core Viewpoints - The shipping index (European line) futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 2067.0 points, with a closing report of 42045.0 points, reflecting a rise of 2.75% [1] - Institutions have differing views on the future market trends, with some expecting further upward movement while others anticipate a return to volatility [1][2] Group 1: Institutional Insights - Jianxin Futures believes that the shipping contract for August still has potential for upward movement, supported by better-than-expected price increases and a recovery in the SCFIS settlement index above 2200 points [1] - Guotou Anxin Futures predicts that the shipping market will shift back to a state of fluctuation, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as the extension of tariff exemptions and the potential for a surge in shipping demand before August [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current spot freight rates are stable, which has led to expectations of price increases from shipping companies in early August, contributing to an overall improvement in market sentiment [2] - The shipping market is experiencing a tight supply situation, exacerbated by the anticipated surge in demand due to tariff policies, which may lead to a mixed sentiment regarding the timing of peak freight rates and seasonal declines [2]

Group 1: EC Futures Contract Price and Related Data - EC2508 had a closing price of 2012.5 with a 0.31% increase, a base difference of 245.5, trading volume of 25398, and an open interest of 31348 with a decrease of 3709 [1] - EC2510 had a closing price of 1390.0 with a -0.34% decrease, a base difference of 868.0, trading volume of 10290, and an open interest of 29642 with a decrease of 786 [1] - EC2512 had a closing price of 1553.7 with a -1.37% decrease, a base difference of 704.3, trading volume of 2082, and an open interest of 1001 with a decrease of 78 [1] - EC2602 had a closing price of 1353.4 with a -0.38% decrease, a base difference of 904.6, trading volume of 313, and an open interest of 3775 with a decrease of 51 [1] - EC2604 had a closing price of 1190.8 with a 0.40% increase, a base difference of 1067.2, trading volume of 657, and an open interest decrease of 164 [1] - EC2606 had a closing price of 1332.5 with a -0.19% decrease, a base difference of 925.5, trading volume of 100, and an open interest of 430 with a decrease of 6 [1] Group 2: Month - to - Month Spread - The spread of EC2508 - 2510 was 622.5 on the day, compared to 611.5 the previous day [1] - The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 163.7 on the day, compared to - 180.6 the previous day [1] - The spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 200.3 on the day, compared to 216.7 the previous day [1] Group 3: Spot and Index Data - The TEDA index on 2025/7/7 was 2258.04 points, with a 6.35% increase from the previous period and a 9.61% increase the period before that [1] - The SCFI (European Line) on 2025/7/4 was 2101 dollars/TEU, with a 3.50% increase from the previous period and a 10.63% increase the period before that [1] - The CCFI (European Line) on 2025/7/4 was 1694.3 points, with a 3.27% increase from the previous period and a 3.94% increase the period before that [1] - The NCFI on 2025/7/4 was 1442.46, with a - 0.03% decrease from the previous period and an 11.03% increase the period before that [1] - The TCI on 2025/7/9 was 1019.55, with no change from the previous period and the period before that [1] Group 4: Capacity Arrangement - In July and August 2025, the weekly average capacity was 295,000 and 313,000 TEU respectively [1] - The second - week receiving in July was neutral, with some routes over - booked; the third - week capacity was 320,000 TEU, the fourth - week capacity was 290,000 TEU, and the first - week capacity in August reached 340,000 TEU. The decreasing cargo volume is expected to put pressure on subsequent freight rates [1] Group 5: Recent European Line Quotation - On Wednesday, MSK's European Line quotation was flat at 2900 US dollars, and MSC's online quotation dropped from 3600 to 3400 US dollars [2] - Downstream is currently booking space for the second half of July (week 29 - 30) [2] - The freight rate in the first half of July (week 27 - 28) was around 3380 US dollars (equivalent to 2350 points on the futures market) [2] - Shipping companies' quotations in the second half of July are generally stable. MSK's third - week quotation was flat at 2950 US dollars, and the current quotation range is 2900 - 3500 US dollars, with an average of 3400 US dollars (equivalent to 2400 points on the futures market) [2] Group 6: News - According to British media on 7/8, there is only one issue remaining in the Gaza cease - fire negotiation. Israel and Hamas still have differences on the status and presence of the Israeli Defense Forces in Gaza, while they have bridged major differences on several other issues [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The shipping capacity in July and August 2025 is expected to put significant downward pressure on subsequent freight rates, as the shipping volume is gradually entering a downward period while the shipping capacity in the first week of August is as high as 340,000 TEU [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Price and Spread - EC2508 had a previous settlement price of 2006.2, a change of 6.23%, a basis of 251.8, a previous trading volume of 57,664, a previous open interest of 35,057, and an open interest change of 536. Other contracts (EC2510 - EC2606) also have their respective price, spread, volume, and open - interest data [1]. - The month - to - month spreads such as EC2508 - 2510, EC2510 - 2512, and EC2512 - 2602 showed different changes compared to the previous days and weeks [1]. 3.2 Spot Freight Rate Index - The Terdar index on July 7, 2025, was 2258.04 yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 6.35%. SCFI (European Line) on July 4, 2025, was 2101 dollars/TEU, up 3.50%. CCFI was 1694.3, up 3.27%. NCFI was 1442.46 points, down 0.03%. TCI on July 8, 2025, remained unchanged at 1019.55 points [1]. 3.3 Shipping Capacity Arrangement - The average weekly shipping capacity in July and August 2025 is 295,000 and 313,000 TEU respectively. The second week of July had neutral cargo intake with no over - booking. The third - week capacity was 320,000 TEU, the fourth - week capacity was 290,000 TEU, and the first - week capacity in August was 340,000 TEU [1]. 3.4 Recent European Line Quotations - Downstream customers are currently booking spaces for mid - July (week 28 - 29). The freight rate in early July (week 27 - 28) was around 3380 US dollars (equivalent to 2350 points). In late July, shipping company quotations were generally stable, with MSK offering a flat rate of 2950 US dollars. The current quotation range is 2950 - 3850 US dollars, with an average of 3500 US dollars (equivalent to 2500 points) [2].

近期欧线报价情况: 目前下游正预定7月中 (week28-29) 的舱位。 7月上 (week27-28) 运价落地在3380美金左右 (折盘2350点) 。 7月下船司报价总体以持稳为主，其中MSK平开2950美金; 当前报价区间较宽,在2950-3850美金之间，均值3500美金（折盘2500 点）。 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/7/8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਵਨ੍ਹੇ | | 昨日收费代 | 涨跌 (%) | 直差 | 昨日成交量 | 昨日持仓量 | | 持仓变动 | | | EC2508 EC2510 | | 1888.5 1350.0 | 2.09 0.60 | રૂ રેત્તે ર 908.0 | | 21083 7 ટેટર | 34521 30278 | -1857 -346 | | | EC2512 | | 1523.9 | 0.72 | 734.1 | | 1166 | ਦ849 | -197 | | | EC2602 | | 1323 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 集运指数：现货运价震荡，关注新一轮关税 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）MSK月初爆舱可配月中船期；OA线下畅接；PA联盟舱位充裕。 | | | | （2）欧洲月初空班较多，舱位减少，舱位紧张，价格上调。 | | 现货运价 | 中性 | （3）7月上旬报价：整体2900-3600，中枢3200；GEMINI：MSK报价2900-3000，HPL报价3250；OA：CMA报价3450（环比-100），OOCL报价3500， | | | | EMC报价3700。 | | | | （4）7月下旬报价：GEMINI：MSK报价2950，HPL报价3850；OA：CMA报价3950，OOCL报价3500；PA：ONE报价4050。 | | | | 【1】特朗普：计划征收从60%到70%到10%到20%不等的关税。相关国家将于8月1日开始征收关税。 | | | | 【2】特朗普的助手们设想在总统访华期间带上多位企业首席执行官同行。【3】目前，利率期货的价格反映出美联 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Date of the report: July 7, 2025 [1] - Report type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research group: Shipping Research Group Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Amid geopolitical conflicts, the market has high complexity and uncertainty, with multiple long - and short - term factors intertwined, making it difficult to predict. It is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [2][4] - The short - term market may rebound, and it is advised to stop losses on short positions. Risk - takers can try to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 with stop - loss and take - profit set [5] - In the context of international turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies [5] - For long - term strategies, it is advised to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for a pullback to stabilize before determining the subsequent direction [5] Group 4: Market Information Freight Index - On July 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2123.24 points, up 9.6% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1619.19 points, down 22.3% from the previous period [3] - The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1285.2 points, down 7.9% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1442.5 points, unchanged from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1176.6 points, down 24.3% from the previous period [3] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1763.49 points, down 98.02 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 2101 USD/TEU, up 3.50% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2089 USD/FEU, down 18.97% from the previous period [3] - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1342.99 points, down 1.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1694.30 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 1084.28 points, down 10.5% from the previous period [3] Economic Data - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI flash was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous 49.4); services PMI flash was 50 (2 - month high, expected 50, previous 49.7); composite PMI flash was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous 50.2); Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous - 8.1) [3] - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than May and the same as April, back above the critical point [3] - US June Markit manufacturing PMI flash was 52 (same as May, higher than expected 51, 2 - month high); services PMI flash was 53.1 (lower than previous 53.7, higher than expected 52.9, 2 - month low); composite PMI flash was 52.8 (lower than previous 53, higher than expected 52.1, 2 - month low) [3] Market News - The US claims that new tariffs will be imposed starting in August, and the Houthi rebels attacked merchant ships again [2] - Hamas is consulting on a cease - fire proposal for the Gaza Strip, and the US and Israel had a long - term discussion on the Gaza situation, with Israel agreeing to the necessary conditions for a 60 - day cease - fire agreement [6] - US trade data in May showed that imports and exports both shrank, and the trade deficit widened further. The import of consumer goods decreased by $4 billion, and the export of industrial supplies and raw materials declined significantly, with overall exports down 4% [6] Group 5: Contract Information - On July 4, the closing price of the 2508 main contract was 1849.9, down 1.71%, with a trading volume of 47,800 lots and an open interest of 36,400 lots, an increase of 431 lots from the previous day [4] - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 16% [5] - The company's margin for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 26% [5] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The shipping market, especially the European route, is being closely monitored with details on EC futures contracts, spot prices, and shipping rates. The increasing weekly average shipping capacity from July to August is expected to put significant downward pressure on subsequent freight rates [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - The closing prices of various EC futures contracts on July 7, 2025, showed declines, with EC2508 at 1849.9 (down 2.48%), EC2510 at 1341.9 (down 1.61%), etc [2] - The volume and open interest of different contracts also varied, with EC2508 having a volume of 47769 and an open interest of 36378 (up 431) [2] - The month - spreads between different contracts, such as EC2508 - 2510 at 508.0, showed changes compared to previous days [2] Spot and Index Data - The spot price on June 30, 2025, was 2123.24, with a 9.61% increase from the previous period [2] - SCFI (European route) on July 4, 2025, was 2101 dollars/TEU, up 3.50% from the previous period [2] - CCFI (European route) on July 4, 2025, was 1694.3, up 3.27% from the previous period [2] Shipping Capacity and Rates - The weekly average shipping capacity in July and August 2025 is 295,000 and 313,000 TEU respectively. The shipping capacity in the third week of July is 320,000 TEU, and the first week of August is 340,000 TEU [2] - The freight rates in the first half of July landed at around 3380 US dollars (equivalent to 2350 points). The shipping company quotes in the second half of July are generally stable, with an average of 3500 US dollars (equivalent to 2500 points) [3] Related News - On July 7, indirect cease - fire negotiations in Gaza restarted in Doha, Qatar. Trump will meet with Netanyahu on Monday to discuss details of the Gaza cease - fire agreement [4]