Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Each shipping company has issued price adjustment notices, but there are no short - term conditions to support price increases. The futures market may fluctuate at a low level, and it is not recommended to increase positions. Instead, stop - loss should be set [2] - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [5] - The main contract remains weak in the short term, while the far - month contracts are relatively strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to take profits. Attention should be paid to the subsequent market trend, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. Stop - loss should be set [6] - In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position for the arbitrage strategy [6] - For the long - term strategy, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts reach a high level, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Shipping Freight Index - On October 13, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1031.8 points, down 1.4% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 862.48 points, down 1.6% from the previous period [3] - On October 10, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 818.97 points, up 11.50% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 698.67 points, up 11.39% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 844.43 points, down 0.34% from the previous period [3] - On October 10, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1160.42 points, up 45.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1068 USD/TEU, up 9.9% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1468 USD/FEU, up 10.76% from the previous period [3] - On October 10, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1014.78 points, down 6.7% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1287.15 points, down 8.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 777.77 points, down 5.7% from the previous period [3] Economic Indicators - In the eurozone, the preliminary September manufacturing PMI was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary services PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The preliminary composite PMI was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The September Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [3] - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month [4] - In the US, the preliminary September S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary services PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [4] Market Conditions - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The current spot price has slightly decreased [5] - On October 10, the main contract 2512 closed at 1570.0, down 3.04%, with a trading volume of 31,500 lots and an open interest of 28,100 lots, an increase of 3834 lots from the previous day [5] - The situation in the Middle East is improving, but although the SCFI index has rebounded, the overall atmosphere is still bearish and the market is under pressure to decline [5] Geopolitical Situation - On October 10, according to Israel Army Radio, the Israeli Defense Forces will soon withdraw to the "preliminary withdrawal line" area as planned by President Trump. However, according to some media reports, the Israeli military's attacks on multiple areas in Gaza are still ongoing [7] - On October 9, Hamas senior official and chief negotiator Khalil al - Hayya announced the achievement of a cease - fire agreement, but he did not mention issues such as Hamas disarmament and the transfer of Gaza's management rights in Trump's "20 - point plan" [7] Contract Rules Adjustment - The up - limit and down - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18% [6]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [6]. - The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Recently, multiple long and short factors are intertwined. Trade war escalation restricts transportation demand, the steady progress of the Middle - East "peace plan" improves the expectation of Red Sea resumption of navigation, and the oversupply pattern remains stable. The futures price is expected to fluctuate widely, and the shipping "peak season not prosperous" situation may continue. The current freight rate market is greatly affected by news, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate more violently. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Data - EC2512 main contract closed at 1674.100, up 114.7; EC2602 second - main contract closed at 1464.4, up 106.4. The spread of EC2512 - EC2602 was 209.70, up 7.10; the spread of EC2512 - EC2604 was 524.10, up 60.10. The EC contract basis was - 642.30, down 111.60. The main contract's open interest was 27191, down 1580. [1] Spot Data - The latest SCFIS (European Line) was 1031.80, up 14.70; SCFIS (US West Line) was 862.48, down 14.34. The SCFI (composite index) was 1114.52, down 45.90. The container ship capacity was 1227.97 (in ten - thousand TEUs), down 0.12. The CCFI (composite index) was 1087.41, up 72.63; CCFI (European Line) was 1401.91, up 114.76. The Baltic Dry Index was 1936.00, up 208.00; the Panamax Freight Index was 1764.00, up 42.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships was 14769.00, unchanged; that of Capesize ships was 23277.00, up 1192.00. [1] Industry News - China has officially implemented a special port fee on US - related ships since today. In September, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%. Exports were 2.34 trillion yuan, up 8.4%; imports were 1.7 trillion yuan, up 7.5%. China's rare - earth exports in September were 4000.3 tons, declining for the third consecutive month. Fed's Paulson supports two more 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year. [1] Market Analysis - On Tuesday, the container shipping index (European Line) futures prices rose significantly. The main contract EC2512 rose 7.36%, and the far - month contracts rose 4 - 8%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1031.80, down 14.7 points from last week, a 1.4% month - on - month decline. Multiple shipping companies have raised freight rates, which is expected to drive up the futures price valuation. However, the US may increase tariffs on Asian imports, and the improvement of the Middle - East situation weakens the support for futures prices. The eurozone's economic data has fluctuated recently. [1] Key Data to Watch - China's September CPI annual rate on October 15 at 09:30; France's September CPI monthly rate final value on October 15 at 14:45; Eurozone's August industrial output monthly rate on October 15 at 17:00. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", specifically "oscillating weakly" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the Gaza peace talks and the deterioration of Sino - US relations, the European Container Freight Index (EC) shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The spot freight rate is favorable, but political and economic factors are unfavorable. The supply of shipping capacity and demand are neutral. In the new long - term agreement cycle in 2026, the market will continue the trend of "falling freight rates and increasing bargaining power of cargo owners". The resumption of the Suez route will likely be phased and verified, with the second quarter of next year as the first substantial observation point [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Logics** - **Spot Freight Rate**: Bullish. This week, the GEMINI price in early October dropped to 1500, OA to 1550, PA to 1400, and MSC to 1600. The FAK freight rate center in the market in late September was 1500, and the overall quotation range in late October was 2000 - 2200 (MSK's price increase letter indicates 2500 in early November) [3] - **Political and Economic**: Bearish. Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese - origin goods from November 1. China announced new restrictions on rare - earth exports. The US adjusted the 232 - clause tariff on some products. Israel and Hamas reached a peace agreement, but there are still uncertainties [3] - **Shipping Capacity Supply**: Neutral. The average weekly shipping capacity deployment in September was 305,000 TEU, 250,000 TEU in October, 280,000 TEU in November, and 290,000 TEU in December [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. The overall loading rate declined rapidly, lower than the same - period levels of the past two years. The loading rate of GEMINI rebounded due to significant price cuts, while those of the other two alliances continued to decline [3] - **Investment View**: Oscillating weakly [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and the 10 - 12 spread trading is in a long - short positive spread. Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [3] 3.2 Price - **Spot Market**: There are data on European line indices, US - West line indices, and US - East line indices, as well as Maersk's European line quotations [6][12] 3.3 Static Shipping Capacity - **Order Volume**: There are data on order volume, new - order volume, and order volume by loading capacity [15] - **Delivery Volume**: There are data on delivery volume and delivery volume by loading capacity [18] - **Demolition Volume**: There are data on demolition volume and demolition volume by loading capacity [19] - **Future Delivery**: There are data on future delivery volume, future delivery volume by quarter and season, and future delivery volume by loading capacity [24][26] - **Ship - Breaking Price**: There are data on ship - breaking price by loading capacity and new - shipbuilding price index and price by loading capacity [31] - **Second - Hand Ship Price**: There are data on second - hand ship price index and second - hand ship price by loading capacity [37] - **Existing Shipping Capacity of Container Ships**: There are data on existing shipping capacity, existing shipping capacity by loading capacity, existing shipping capacity of ships over 25 years old, idle and retrofitting ratios, average age, and average age of ship - breaking [46][49][53] 3.4 Dynamic Shipping Capacity - **Shipping Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports)**: There are data on the total shipping capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports, and the shipping capacity deployments of PA + MSC, MSC, GEMINI, and OCEAN [61][63][65][67][69] - **Container Ships with Desulfurization Towers**: There are data on container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those being installed, average age and duration of installation, and average speed [71][72][75] - **Idle Shipping Capacity**: There are data on idle shipping capacity, idle shipping capacity by loading capacity, hot - idle shipping capacity, and shipping capacity for desulfurization tower retrofitting [79][80]

Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, the A - share market had a positive start, with the cycle sector rising strongly, but there was also a phenomenon of rising and then falling. The bond market also had a good start, and the futures of various bond varieties warmed up. Different commodity futures showed different trends, and corresponding trading strategies were proposed according to the supply - demand relationship, price trends, and external factors of each variety [2]. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After the holiday, the A - share market had a positive start, with the technology main line remaining active. It is recommended to sell put options with an exercise price of around 6800 on MO2511 on dips to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After the long - holiday, the bond market had a positive start. The 10 - year Treasury bond has investment value when the interest rate rises above 1.8%. The T2512 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 107.4 - 108.3, and it is recommended to wait for over - adjustment opportunities [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold should be bought cautiously at low levels, and after the volatility of options peaks, out - of - the - money options can be sold at high prices. For silver, pay attention to whether the short - term supply shortage can be alleviated. In the non - delivery months of October - November, the upward trend may ease, and long positions should be cautious [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The market may gradually trade on the peak - season expectation, and it is recommended to go long on the December and February contracts [2]. Black Commodities - **Steel**: The steel price remained stable during the holiday. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach on the single - side, and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread when it is high, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar should converge [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - side disturbance increased during the holiday, and the iron ore is expected to be strong. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 760 - 830, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Coking Coal**: After the holiday, the coal price in the production area was weak. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 1080 - 1240, and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was implemented before the holiday, and there is limited room for further increase. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 1550 - 1750, and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The supply shortage problem continues, and long positions should be held. The main contract should pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000 [2]. - **Aluminum**: The market supply is sufficient, and the main contract runs in the range of 2850 - 3050. The macro - economy boosts the aluminum price, and the main contract reference range is 20700 - 21300. The price of waste aluminum is firm, and the main contract reference range of aluminum alloy is 20200 - 20800 [2]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rebounds, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory accumulation in London zinc. The main contract reference range is 21800 - 22800 [2]. - **Tin**: The macro - economy boosts the price, and the main contract reference range is 120000 - 126000 [2]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel price fluctuates and strengthens slightly, and the main contract reference range is 12600 - 13200. The stainless - steel price fluctuates and weakens, and the main contract reference range is also 12600 - 13200 [2]. Energy and Chemical Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The easing of the Middle East situation reduces the geopolitical risk premium, and the short - term loose supply - demand situation suppresses the oil price, which is expected to be weak [2]. - **Urea**: The large inventory accumulation suppresses the price. It is recommended to go short on the single - side, and the short - term support level is 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton. For options, after the implied volatility rises, reduce the position when the price is high [2]. - **PX**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the oil - price support is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for the November contract and look for opportunities to short on the rebound, and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread [2]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation improves but is still weak in the medium term. It is recommended to wait and see, pay attention to the support at around 4500, and conduct 1 - 5 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: The inventory pressure is not large, and there is short - term support. The processing fee on the disk fluctuates in the range of 800 - 1100, and it is recommended to increase the position at low levels, but the driving force is limited [2]. - **Bottle - chip**: The supply - demand expectation weakens in the fourth quarter, and the bottle - chip is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation channel. The processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to short the processing fee when the price is high [2]. - **Ethanol (MEG)**: The domestic supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to go short on the 01 contract, hold the seller of the out - of - the - money call option EG2601 - C - 4350, and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage when the price is high [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: The trading was light during the holiday, and the inventory accumulated. It is recommended to hold short positions [2]. - **PVC**: The spot - purchasing enthusiasm is average, and the price fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand is loose, and the price - driving force is limited. The 2603 contract is expected to fluctuate with styrene and the oil price in the short term [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the price may be under pressure. It is recommended to short on the rebound of the November contract and increase the position when the EB - BZ spread is low [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: After the holiday, the natural - rubber price rebounded, driving the BR price up. It is recommended to go long on NR2512 and short on BR2512 [2]. - **LLDPE**: The post - holiday trading volume increased, and the basis strengthened. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory - reduction inflection point [2]. - **PP**: The PDH profit was greatly repaired, and the trading improved. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Methanol**: The basis strengthened, and the trading was okay. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean price rebounded steadily, and the domestic price is under supply pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at around 2900 for the 01 contract [2]. - **Pig**: The breeding side increased the slaughter, and the supply pressure was released. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. - **Corn**: The supply increased gradually, and the price is under pressure. It is expected to run weakly [2]. - **Edible Oils**: The domestic edible - oil price on the continuous contract rose after the holiday. The main contract of palm oil may continue to rise to 9700 in the short term [2]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is broad. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [2]. - **Cotton**: New cotton is gradually on the market, and the supply pressure increases. It is recommended to hold short positions [2]. - **Egg**: The post - holiday demand weakened, and the price is expected to be bearish. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2511 contract when the price is low and pay attention to the monthly spread reverse - arbitrage opportunity [2]. - **Apple**: The price of high - quality apples is stable, and the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants is not high. The main contract runs around 8500 [2]. - **Jujube**: As the picking time approaches, the long - short game intensifies. The price is bearish in the medium - long term [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand surplus is difficult to reverse, and the price is expected to be weak after the holiday. It is recommended to short on the rebound [2]. - **Glass**: The production and sales performance is average, and the post - holiday price fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [2]. - **Rubber**: The raw - material price in Thailand is strong, and the rubber price rose after the holiday. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The output continues to increase, and the price is under pressure and fluctuates in the range of 8300 - 9000 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy Commodities - **Polysilicon**: There may be new progress in the supply - side contraction, and the price rose at the end of the session. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with strong support at 50,000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are continuous supply - side news, and the fundamentals maintain a tight balance. The main - contract price center is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - After the holiday, there are multiple upward drivers, including multiple price - hike announcement nodes, high operational space for shipping companies to reduce speed and suspend voyages, and the long - term contract signing season from December to January. Meanwhile, the economy in Northwest Europe is deteriorating, and new ships are being launched successively. Overall, the valuations of contracts 12 and 02 are still high, but they may fluctuate in the short term due to the poor implementation expectation in late October and the price - hike announcement expectation in November. Contract 04 has a currently high valuation, and as an off - season contract, it is more suitable for short - selling in the short term, but attention should be paid to the fact that its low liquidity may make it vulnerable to short - term disturbances [2][26]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices**: On September 30, 2025, the closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 were 1115.0, 1756.3, 1667.0, 1253.0, and 1452.7 respectively, with changes of - 2.11%, - 1.16%, - 1.07%, - 1.23%, and - 2.08% [2][26]. - **Open Interest Changes**: The open interests of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 changed by - 3117, - 1012, 84, 11, and - 8 respectively [2][26]. - **Monthly Spreads**: For EC2510 - 2512, the spread was - 641.3, with a day - on - day change of - 3.3 and a week - on - week change of - 11749. For FC2512 - 2602, the spread was 89.3, with a day - on - day change of - 2.7 and a week - on - week change of 1.5 [2][26]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Freight Indexes**: As of September 26, 2025, the SCFI (European Line) was 971 US dollars/TEU, down 7.70% from the previous period; the CCFI was 1401.91 points, down 4.69%; the NCFI was 614.14 points, down 8.85% [2][26]. 3.3 Short - term European Line Quotations - **Week 40 - 41**: Two - week joint cabin release, with an average quotation of 1450 US dollars (equivalent to 1020 points on the futures market). MSK quoted 1400, PA quoted 1300 - 1500, YML's 1300 was the lowest price of the year, and OA quoted 1400 - 1600 US dollars [2][26]. - **Week 42**: MSK's cabin - opening quotation was 1800 US dollars (a 400 - dollar increase from the previous period). ONE, OOCL, COSCO, and HPL successively announced price hikes to 2000 US dollars after the holiday, while CMA and MSC announced price hikes to 2200 US dollars [2][26].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, there are multiple upward drivers, including multiple price increase announcement nodes, high operation space for shipping companies such as speed reduction and suspension of voyages, and the long - term contract signing season from December to January. However, the economies in Northwest Europe are deteriorating, and new ships are being launched successively. Overall, the valuations of contracts for December and February are still high, but they may still fluctuate in the short term under the poor implementation expectations in October and the expected price increase in November. The current valuation of the April contract is high, and as an off - season contract, it is more suitable for short - selling in the short term, with attention to the fact that low liquidity may cause short - term disturbances [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Futures Market - For EC2510, the closing price was 1115.0, with a decline of 2.11%, the trading volume was 16679, the open interest was 29314, and the open interest change was - 3117. For EC2512, the closing price was 1756.3, with a decline of 1.16%, the trading volume was 11879, the open interest was 20683, and the open interest change was - 1012. Similar data are provided for other contracts like EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 [2] - The monthly spreads such as EC2510 - 2512 and EC2512 - 2602 also have their respective changes compared to previous days and weeks [2] Spot Market - The SCEIS SCFI (European line) index on September 29, 2025, was 1120.49 points, a decrease of 10.71% from the previous period. The CCFI was 1401.91 points on September 26, 2025, a decrease of 4.69% from the previous period, and the NCFI was 614.14, a decrease of 8.83% from the previous period [2] Current European Line Quotations - Currently, downstream customers are booking spaces for the end of September and early October (week 40 - 41). The average quotation for week 40 - 41 is 1450 US dollars (equivalent to 1020 points on the futures market). For week 42, MSK's opening quotation is 1800 US dollars (a 400 - dollar increase from the previous period), and some shipping companies have announced price increases after the holiday [4] News - On September 30, it was reported that Hamas is unlikely to accept Trump's Gaza peace plan. The new cease - fire plan put forward by US President Trump is essentially an ultimatum to Hamas, and it is predicted that the US will use Hamas' possible rejection to "portray Palestinians as obstacles to peace" [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, there are multiple upward drivers, with ships being launched successively. Overall, shipping companies have a high degree of maneuverability in reducing speed and suspending voyages; December - January is the long - term contract signing season. Meanwhile, the economy in Northwest Europe is deteriorating. It is not recommended to chase high prices, and short - term volatile operation is expected. The current valuation of the 04 contract is high, and as an off - season contract, it is more suitable for short - selling in the short term. Attention should be paid to the low liquidity, which may cause short - term susceptibility to disturbances. Contracts 12 and 02 already have high valuations [3][31] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - **EC Futures Contracts**: The closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 on the previous day were 1139.0, 1777.0, 1685.0, 1268.6, and 1483.5 respectively, with changes of - 2.90%, - 0.34%, - 0.66%, - 1.23%, and 0.08%. The trading volumes were 22035, 19314, 6466, 1657, and 97 respectively, and the open interests were 32431, 21695, 8768, 9099, and 938 respectively, with changes of - 3095, - 1300, 0, 142, and - 14 respectively [2][30] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512 were - 638.0, - 610.1, and - 582.1 for the previous day, two days ago, and three days ago respectively, with a daily change of - 27.9. The spreads of EC2512 - 2602 were 92.0, 86.9, and 108.4 for the previous day, two days ago, and three days ago respectively, with a daily change of 5.1 [2][30] Spot Index Information - **SCF**: Updated every Monday, as of September 22, 2025, it was 1254.92 points, showing a decline of 12.87% compared to the previous period and 8.06% compared to the period before the previous one [2][30] - **CCFI (European Line)**: Updated every ninth day of the week, as of September 26, 2025, it was 1401.91 points, showing a decline of 4.69% compared to the previous period [2][30] - **NCFI**: Updated every ninth day of the week, as of September 26, 2025, it was 614.14 points, showing a decline of 8.85% compared to the previous period [2][30] Recent European Line Quotation Information - **Week 39**: The average quotation was 1600 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). Among them, MSK quoted 1500 US dollars (later increased to 1570), PA Alliance quoted between 1550 - 1600 US dollars, and OA Alliance quoted between 1600 - 1720 US dollars [4][32] - **Weeks 40 - 41**: The average quotation was 1450 US dollars (equivalent to 1020 points on the futures market). Among them, MSK quoted 1400 US dollars, PA quoted between 1300 - 1500 US dollars, YML quoted 1300 US dollars (the lowest price of the year), and OA quoted between 1400 - 1600 US dollars [4][32] - **Week 42**: MSK opened the cabin with a quotation of 1800 US dollars (a month - on - month increase of 400). Other shipping companies successively announced price increases to 2000 US dollars after the holiday [4][32] News - On September 29, Trump claimed that the Middle East peace agreement "will surely be reached." He was optimistic about reaching a cease - fire agreement in Gaza and would meet with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Monday to finalize the agreement framework. - On September 28, Hamas stated that it had not received a new cease - fire proposal, and the Palestine - Israel negotiations were at an impasse. - On September 28, the Israeli Defense Minister stated that the military operations in the Gaza Strip would not stop [4][32]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, there are multiple upward drivers including multiple price increase announcements, high operational space for shipping companies such as speed reduction and suspension of voyages, and the long - term agreement signing season from December to January. However, the economies in Northwest Europe are deteriorating and new ships are being launched successively. Overall, the valuations of contracts 12 and 02 are already high, and it is not recommended to chase the high prices. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. Contract 04 currently has a high valuation, and as an off - season contract, it is more suitable for short - selling in the short term, but attention should be paid to the low liquidity which may cause short - term fluctuations [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Information - For EC2510, the closing price was 1139.0, with a decline of 2.90%, a basis of 115.9, trading volume of 22035, and open interest of 32431 with a decrease of 3095 [1] - For EC2512, the closing price was 1777.0, a decline of 0.34%, a basis of - 522.1, trading volume of 19314, and open interest of 21695 with a decrease of 1300 [1] - For EC2602, the closing price was 1685.0, a decline of 0.66%, a basis of - 430.1, trading volume of 6466, and open interest of 8768 [1] - For EC2604, the closing price was 1268.6, a decline of 1.28%, a basis of - 13.7, trading volume of 1657, and open interest of 9099 with an increase of 142 [1] - For EC2606, the closing price was 1483.5, an increase of 0.08%, a basis of - 228.6, trading volume of 97, and open interest of 938 with a decrease of 14 [1] - The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 638.0, with a day - on - day decrease of 27.9 and a week - on - week decrease of 77.8 [1] - The spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 92.0, with a day - on - day increase of 5.1 and a week - on - week increase of 11.7 [1] 3.2 Spot Index Information - The SCHIS SCFI (European line) index was 1254.92 points on September 22, 2025, a decrease of 12.87% from the previous period and 8.06% from two periods ago. The price was 971 dollars/TEU on September 26, 2025, a decrease of 7.70% from the previous period and 8.84% from two periods ago [1] - The CCFI index was 1401.91 points on September 26, 2025, a decrease of 4.69% from the previous period and 4.31% from two periods ago [1] - The NCFI index was 614.14 points on September 26, 2025, a decrease of 8.83% from the previous period and 7.65% from two periods ago [1] 3.3 European Line Quotation Situation - For week 39 (end of September), the average quotation was 1600 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). MSK quoted 1500 US dollars (later increased to 1570), PA Alliance quoted 1550 - 1600 US dollars, and OA Alliance quoted 1600 - 1720 US dollars [3] - For weeks 40 - 41 (beginning of October), the average quotation was 1450 US dollars (equivalent to 1020 points on the futures market). MSK quoted 1400 US dollars, PA quoted 1300 - 1500 US dollars (YML's 1300 US dollars was the lowest price of the year), and OA quoted 1400 - 1600 US dollars [3] - For week 42, MSK's opening quotation was 1800 US dollars (a 400 - dollar increase from the previous period), and other shipping companies successively announced post - holiday price increases to 2000 US dollars [3] 3.4 Related News - On September 29, Trump claimed that the Middle East peace agreement "will surely be reached". He will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Monday to finalize the agreement framework [4] - On September 28, Hamas stated that it had not received a new cease - fire proposal, and the Israel - Palestine negotiations were at an impasse [4] - On September 28, the Israeli Defense Minister said that it would not stop military operations in the Gaza Strip [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - This week, Maersk significantly increased the spot freight rates for the second half of October, indicating that shipping companies are starting to support prices for the upcoming peak season. Currently, the overall cargo volume on the European route is weak, and there was some control over shipping capacity in the first half of October due to holidays. Future attention should be paid to the implementation of shipping companies' price - support measures and the market's expectations for the peak season in December [7]. - Bullish factors include the complex situation in the Middle East, which makes short - term navigation in the Red Sea unlikely, and some shipping companies starting to support freight rates for the second half of October [7]. - Bearish factors are that the deployed shipping capacity on the European route is currently relatively high, and the cargo volume remains at the off - season level. The cargo volume in the second half of October may fall short of expectations [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Fundamental Points - **Latest View**: Maersk's rate hike shows shipping companies' price - support for the peak season. Current European route cargo is weak, with capacity control in early October. Monitor price - support implementation and December peak - season expectations [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Complex Middle East situation affecting Red Sea navigation and some shipping companies' price - support for late October [7]. - **Negative Factors**: High deployed capacity on the European route and low off - season cargo volume, with potential under - performance in late October [7]. - **Price Data**: SCFIS European route on Monday was 1,254.92 (1,440.24) points, down 12.87% month - on - month; SCFIS US West route was 1,193.64 (1,349.84) points, down 11.57% month - on - month. On Friday, SCFI composite index was 1,114.52 (1,198.21), down 6.98% month - on - month, with SCFI European route at 971 (1052) dollars/TEU, down 7.70% month - on - month, and SCFI US West route at 1460 (1636) dollars/FEU, down 10.76% month - on - month [9]. - **Supply Data**: As of Friday, there were 7,414 (7,402) global container ships with a total capacity of 33,101,322 (33,055,884) TEU, up 0.14% from last Friday. In early September, idle capacity was about 486,400 TEU, with an idle capacity ratio of 1.47%. In August, the global main - route comprehensive punctuality rate was 44.21 (45.06)%, arrival and departure service punctuality rate was 40.24 (42.23)%, and pick - up and delivery service punctuality rate was 48.17 (47.89)% [9]. - **Demand Data**: In August, China's export value was 321.81 (321.784) billion dollars, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In July, exports to the US were 31.60404 (35.82748) billion dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 33.12%, and exports to the EU were 51.68954 (50.00028) billion dollars, a year - on - year increase of 10.38% [10]. 3.2 Container Transport Prices - **SCFIS**: European route decreased by 12.87% month - on - month on Monday; US West route decreased by 11.57% month - on - month [9]. - **SCFI**: Composite index decreased by 6.98% month - on - month on Friday, with European route down 7.70% and US West route down 10.76% month - on - month [9]. - **Other Prices**: International container charter price index and global container ship average revenue data are presented in graphs, showing historical trends and monthly changes [23]. 3.3 Container Transport Supply - **Global Container Ship Capacity**: As of Friday, there were 7,414 ships with a total capacity of 33,101,322 TEU, up 0.14% from last Friday. Historical capacity data (ships and TEU) are shown in a graph [9][27]. - **Idle Capacity**: In early September, idle capacity was about 486,400 TEU, with a ratio of 1.47%. Historical idle capacity and its proportion are presented in a graph [9][33]. - **Ship Delivery and Orders**: Data on global container ship deliveries (ships and TEU) and new - signed container ship orders (TEU) are shown in graphs [35]. - **China's Container - Related Equipment Exports**: Data on China's container ship and container exports, including monthly values and cumulative year - on - year changes, are presented in graphs [38]. - **Shipping Punctuality Rates**: Global main - route comprehensive punctuality rate, arrival and departure service punctuality rate, and pick - up and delivery service punctuality rate data are provided, along with historical trends. Punctuality rates of global liner companies, alliances, and major ports are also presented in graphs [40][45][48]. - **Ship Fuel Prices**: Graphs show the price differences between high - sulfur and low - sulfur marine fuels in Singapore and Rotterdam [54]. 3.4 Container Transport Demand - **PMI Data**: China's manufacturing PMI and new export order PMI data, along with a comparison of China, the US, and the EU's PMI, are presented in graphs [58]. - **Foreign Demand**: Data on US commercial inventory changes and EU 27 retail sales changes, including monthly and year - on - year changes, are presented in graphs [60]. - **Import and Export Data**: China's customs import and export values and their year - on - year changes, as well as seasonal data on China's exports to the US and the EU, are presented in graphs [63][65]. - **Cargo Volume**: Seasonal data on European and US route cargo volumes are presented in graphs [68]. - **Port Throughput**: National port container throughput data and monthly changes, as well as Shanghai Port's container throughput and its year - on - year changes, are presented in graphs [70][73]. - **Exchange Rates**: Graphs show the spot exchange rates of the US dollar and the euro against the Chinese yuan [75].

Report Overview - Report Type: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: September 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The SCFIS has dropped below 1300 points for ten consecutive weeks, and the October freight rates are further reduced. The spot freight prices show a smooth downward trend in the off - season, with an expanding decline. Attention should be paid to whether the freight rate reduction rate can slow down and whether the bottom of the freight rate can be formed. The tense situation in the Middle East is expected to support the far - month contracts. There may be low - buying opportunities in December contracts, and the October contracts are recommended to be short - sold on rallies [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Condition**: The SCFIS has dropped below 1300 points for ten consecutive weeks, and the October freight rates are further reduced. The spot freight prices of the Shanghai - Rotterdam route and other routes have decreased significantly, showing a smooth downward trend in the off - season with an expanding decline [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: There may be low - buying opportunities in December contracts, and the October contracts are recommended to be short - sold on rallies [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Shipping Market**: From September 15th to 19th, the demand for China's export container transportation was weak, the freight rates of ocean routes continued to adjust, and the decline of the comprehensive index expanded. The freight rates of European, Mediterranean, and North American routes all decreased [9]. - **Economic Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 5.2%, showing strong resilience. Germany's September ZEW economic situation index fell to - 76.4 points, and the US September Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 55.4, both lower than market expectations [9][10]. - **Middle East Situation**: The US vetoed the permanent cease - fire resolution in Gaza at the UN Security Council. There are continuous military operations between the Israeli army and Hamas in Gaza, which has a certain impact on the shipping market [10]. 3.3 Data Overview 3.3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - **European Route**: On September 22, 2025, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) was 1254.92 points, a decrease of 12.9% compared with September 15th [12]. - **US West Route**: On September 22, 2025, the SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1193.64 points, a decrease of 11.6% compared with September 15th [12]. 3.3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - **Contract Data**: The trading data of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, and EC2608 contracts on September 24th are provided, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. 3.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, container shipping futures contract trends, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [13][17][22]