集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持会 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2512 EC2602 | | 1664.7 1619.8 | -0.31% 0.28% | -155.6 -110.7 | 451 19042 | | 3283 30/13 | -111 -753 | | | EC2604 | | 1073.6 | -0.38% | 435.5 | 2762 | | 19378 | -235 | | | EC2606 | | 1219.1 | 0.15% | 290.0 | 444 | | 2335 | 133 | | 期货 | EC2608 | | 1379.9 | 1.76% | 129.2 | 138 | | 1574 | -24 | | | EC2610 | | 1019.3 | -0.87% | 489.8 | 308 | | 4201 ...

2025年12月9日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) SCFIS小幅上涨，主力合约震荡上行，已建议轻仓试多，关注春节前出货行情，运价并无明显波动。 地缘政治冲突事件、极端天气、外盘原油剧烈波动 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 12月8日 | 12月5日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1509.10点，较上期上涨1.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 972.63点, 较上期上涨2.77% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）960.51点，较上期上涨1.2% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(欧洲航线) 1024.64点, 较上期上涨7.67% | | 12月5日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 881.66点, 较上期下跌7.77% | | | 12月5日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1397.63 点, 较上期下跌5.5点 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1400USD/TEU,较上期下跌0.28% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(综合指数) 1121.8 ...

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 9 日 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货12月8日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2512 | 1,658.4 | 1,647.9 | 1,669.8 | 1,660.5 | 11.4 | 0.69 | 330 | 3394 | -106 | | EC2602 | 1,614.1 | 1,600.0 | 1,615.3 | 1,601.0 | 1.2 | 0.07 | 19294 | 31466 | -749 | | EC2604 | 1,098.8 | 1,080.0 | 1,077.7 | 1,077.8 | -21.1 | -1.92 | 3125 | 19613 | 263 | | EC2606 | 1,260.8 | 1,252.5 | 1,217.3 | 1,227.3 ...

2025年12月8日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 班轮公司宣涨1月运价，盘面偏强震荡，已建议轻仓试多，关注春节前出货行情，运价并无明显波动。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 12月1日 | 12月5日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1483.65点，较上期下跌9.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 962.38点, 较上期下跌1.05% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 948.77点, 较上期下跌14.4% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 967.55点, 较上期下跌5.57% | | 12月5日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 881.66点, 较上期下跌7.77% 12月5日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1397.63 点, 较上期下跌5.5点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1114.89点,较上期下跌0.6% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1400USD/TEU,较上期下跌0.28% | 中国出口集装 ...

2025年12月8日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) | 短期策略: 主力合约回撤反弹,远月合约波动放缓,风险偏好者已 | | --- | | 建议主力合约轻仓试多，盘面小幅跳水，不建议继续补仓，不建议 | | 扛单,设置好止损。 | | 套利策略：国际局势动荡背景下，各合约仍保持季节性逻辑，波动 | | 较大,建议暂时观望或轻仓尝试。 | | 长期策略:各合约已建议冲高止盈,等待回调企稳后,在判断后续 | | 方向 | | 跌涨停板:2508-2606合约调整为18%。 | | 我司保证金:2508-2606合约调整为28%。 | | 日内开仓限制: 2508-2606所有合约为100手。 | 财联社12月4日电，以色列国防军当地时间3日发布声明称，当天早些时候，巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯）武装组织在加沙地带拉法地区公然 违反停火协议，武装人员袭击了正在当地部署的以色列军队，造成5名士兵受伤。声明指出，作为回应，以军在情报部门的指引下，在加沙地带南部 对一名哈马斯成员实施了空袭。声明强调，以军部队仍按照停火协议部署，并将继续采取行动，消除任何直接威胁。（央视新闻) 班轮公司宣涨1月运价，盘面偏强震荡，已建议 ...

集运指数（欧线）观点： 震荡市 国泰君安期货研究所 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 首席分析师/能化联席行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 日期：2025年12月7日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述 01 本周集运指数（欧线）观点总结：震荡市 12月周均运力32.1万TEU/周，空班数量4艘，与上周保持一致。 1月（12月29日-2月1日）待定航次维持3艘、空班数量维持1艘不变；Gemini 联盟官网船期显示，在1月新添一艘航次，由代名"MDV ELECTRA"号执行，始发港 挂靠宁波、上海，其中上海 ETD为 1 月 22 日。目前船名及其大小尚未完全落实（船期表中暂时记作12000TEU），故周均运力从32.2上修至32.7万TEU/周（未计入3 艘待定航次运力）。需要注意的是：中远AEU3 2025年51周~2026年3周船期延误较多（实际延误一周），边际上会利于船司推涨1月上旬运费、但也给1下旬市场带来 压力。整体而言，1月周均运力达32.7万TEU/周，运力水平不 ...

ગઢ | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 EC2512 | | 昨日收篇价 1649.1 | 涨 -0.24% | 基差 -165.5 | 昨日成交量 270 | | 昨日持命量 3731 | 持仓变动 -82 | | | EC2602 | | 1585.0 | 2.92% | -101.4 | 27304 | | 34222 | -786 | | | EC2604 | | 1090.1 | 0.65% | 393.6 | 2881 | | 19129 | 132 | | | EC2606 | | 1255.1 | 0.05% | 228.6 | 178 | | 2141 | -26 | | 期货 | EC2608 | | 1385.6 | 0.40% | 98.1 | 125 | | 1549 | -28 | | | EC2610 | | 1040.2 | -0.19% | 443.5 | 297 | | 3961 | 72 ...

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 4 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货12月3日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2512 | 1,635.3 | 1,650.0 | 1,653.5 | 1,646.0 | 18.2 | 1.1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The retracement may be in place, and the main contract has rebounded continuously. It is recommended to take a small - position long in the main contract and focus on the pre - Spring Festival shipping market. The freight rate has no obvious fluctuation. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is suggested to participate with a small position [2][4] - With the interweaving of long and short information such as some liner companies' price increase announcements and the decline of the latest SCFIS index, the contracts rise and fall differently. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index Information - On December 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1483.65 points, down 9.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 948.77 points, down 14.4% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period [3] - On November 28, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1403.13 points, up 9.57 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1404 USD/TEU, up 2.71% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1632 USD/FEU, down 0.79% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [3] 3.2 Economic Data - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined. The composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [4] - In the US in October, the S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52, previous value 52); the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [4] - In the eurozone in October, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); the services PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6). The Sentix investor confidence index was expected to be - 8.5, with the previous value of - 9.2 [3] 3.3 Contract Information - On December 2, the main contract 2602 closed at 1534.2, with a gain of 2.16%, a trading volume of 24,700 lots, and an open interest of 36,300 lots, a decrease of 1882 lots from the previous day [4] 3.4 Strategy Suggestions - **Short - term strategy**: For risk - preference investors, it is recommended to take a small - position long in the main contract. When the market dips slightly, do not add more positions, do not hold losses, and set stop - losses [5] - **Arbitrage strategy**: In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a small position [5] - **Long - term strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises to a high level, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5] 3.5 Other Information - Some liner companies have announced price increases for late December, but the latest SCFIS index is declining, with long and short information intertwined, and the contracts rise and fall differently [4] - The Iran - Israel situation: Iran is seeking to restore its military potential and re - arm regional forces to confront Israel, including restoring the military capabilities of the Houthi armed forces and smuggling weapons to the West Bank for attacks on Israel [6] - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin of the company for these contracts is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC2512 contract is moving towards the delivery logic, with P1 around 1550 points. P2 and P3 are对标 to the second - half of December's cabin space, and the price is expected to be stable with a slight increase. - The EC2602 contract has a neutral valuation, follows the spot market in the short - term, and there is a chance for a higher price if the peak season is realized. Reasons include the late Chinese New Year, strong cargo volume on the European route this year, and the contract covering a period with a potential seasonal price peak. - The EC2604 contract is still recommended to be shorted on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2512 closed at 1633.6 with a - 0.19% change; EC2602 at 1534.2 with a 2.719% change; EC2604 at 1072.1 with a - 0.55% change; EC2606 at 1233.2 with a - 0.31% change; EC2608 at 1374.9 with a 1.30% change; EC2610 at 1032.6 with a - 0.06% change [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: For example, EC2512 - 2504 was 561.5, EC2512 - 2602 was 99.4, and EC2502 - 2604 was 462.1, with corresponding changes compared to previous days and weeks [2]. Spot Market - **Spot Indexes**: The spot price (per point) on December 1, 2025, was 1483.65, down 9.50% from the previous period. SCF on November 28, 2025, was 1404 dollars/TEU, up 2.71%; CCFI was 1449.34 points, up 1.14%; NCFI was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% [2]. - **European Route Spot Situation**: In December, the early - month price increase failed. In Week 49, the average was 2360 dollars, equivalent to 1650 points on the disk. In Week 50, MSK's opening price dropped to 2200 dollars, and the current central price is 2270 dollars, equivalent to 1580 points. Some shipping companies adjusted prices, and it is expected that shipping companies will announce price increases for January's cabin space in early December. On Tuesday, MSK's opening price for Week 51 was 2400 dollars, up 200 dollars from the previous week, equivalent to 1660 points [4]. Related News - On November 26, the mediators of the Gaza cease - fire agreed to stop violations and implement the second phase of the agreement. - On November 29, Lebanon's Hezbollah said it would retaliate against Israel for the attack on its senior commander [5].