本文字数：2337，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 今年二季度，受到美国关税政策变化的影响，制造业运行短期有所波动，但我国经济展现出了较强的 韧性，在短期放缓后迅速回稳。 国家统计局6月30日发布的6月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点， 连续两个月回升，制造业景气水平继续改善。非制造业商务活动指数为50.5%，比上月上升0.2个百 分点。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群表示，6月份PMI指数小幅回升，表明一系列增量政策的效 果继续显现。订单类指数回升反映扩大内需政策效果有所显现；生产指数、采购量指数上升反映企业 生产经营活动有回暖趋势。同时应注意到PMI指数仍处荣枯线下，生产经营活动预期指数仍在下降， 反映需求不足的企业占比仍在扩大，市场引导的需求收缩对制造业生产投资的制约仍然突出。 2025.06. 30 张立群强调，当前宏观经济政策逆周期调节与市场引导的需求收缩正处相互角力的关键阶段，必须坚 持不懈持续加大扩内需各项政策力度，特别要显著加强政府公共产品投资力度，扩大投资规模，有效 有力带动制造业企业订单显著增加，带动制造业生产投资持续活跃。 产需指 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June is 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2] - Large enterprises have a PMI of 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises have a PMI of 48.6%, up 1.1 percentage points, and small enterprises have a PMI of 47.3%, down 2.0 percentage points, all below the critical point [5] - Among the five sub-indices of the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new orders index, and supplier delivery time index are above the critical point, while the raw material inventory index and employment index are below the critical point [6] Group 2: Manufacturing Sub-Indices - The production index is at 51.0%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating accelerated production activities in manufacturing [7] - The new orders index is at 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points, suggesting an improvement in market demand for manufacturing [8] - The raw materials inventory index is at 48.0%, up 0.6 percentage points, indicating a continued narrowing of the decline in major raw material inventories [9] - The employment index is at 47.9%, down 0.2 percentage points, reflecting a slight decline in employment sentiment within manufacturing [10] - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.2%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating faster delivery times from raw material suppliers compared to the previous month [11] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - The non-manufacturing business activity index for June is 50.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [14] - The construction industry business activity index is at 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, while the service industry business activity index is at 50.1%, down 0.1 percentage points [17] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sub-Indices - The new orders index for non-manufacturing is at 46.6%, up 0.5 percentage points, indicating a slight recovery in market demand [21] - The input prices index is at 49.9%, up 1.7 percentage points, suggesting stable input prices for non-manufacturing activities [21] - The sales prices index is at 48.8%, up 1.5 percentage points, indicating a narrowing decline in sales prices [21] - The employment index is at 45.5%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating continued weakness in employment sentiment in the non-manufacturing sector [21] Group 5: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The comprehensive PMI output index for June is 50.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities across enterprises [27]

Core Insights - The A-share market showed mixed performance last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.7%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.34% and 0.47% respectively. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 15,409.36 billion yuan [1][7] - In terms of industry performance, non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, and textile and apparel sectors led the gains, while banking, public utilities, and food and beverage sectors lagged behind. Concept sectors such as copper cable high-speed connections, metal zinc, and newly listed technology stocks saw significant increases, whereas cross-border payments, combustible ice, and digital currencies experienced declines [1][7] Market News - During the 2025 Listed Companies Forum held in Wenzhou on June 28-29, leaders from the four major exchanges (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, and Hong Kong) emphasized multi-dimensional reform signals. The Shanghai Stock Exchange's deputy general manager stated that they will solidly promote the "1+6" reform measures and demonstration cases [2][8] - The Hong Kong market will adjust its stock transaction fees starting June 30, increasing from 0.002% to 0.0042% of the transaction amount, while removing the minimum fee of 2 HKD and the maximum fee of 100 HKD. This adjustment is expected to lower transaction costs for small trades and help institutional investors better control costs during large-scale transactions [3][9] Investment Highlights - As of June 25, the A-share market indices generally rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,455.97 points, reflecting a 3.24% increase from the end of May. The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices showed significant gains [10] - Market liquidity has improved, with an increase in the scale of locked-up shares released in June compared to the previous month. The establishment of new equity funds and increased share buybacks by major shareholders contributed to a continued rise in trading volume [10] - Investor confidence has rebounded, with trading activity increasing following the easing of US-China trade tensions. However, geopolitical conflicts and domestic economic data have caused some adjustments in the market [10][12] - The Chinese government is focusing on expanding domestic demand and enhancing internal economic momentum, with the People's Bank of China and other departments issuing guidelines to support consumption growth through financial services [13][12] - The recent announcements from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) regarding capital market reforms and support for technology enterprises are expected to boost investor confidence and improve long-term liquidity in the A-share market [13][12]

自5月20日起，"十五五"规划编制工作开展网络征求意见活动。今年"十五五"规划相关工作节点比以往 开始得还要早，充分显示出党中央对五年规划的重视。 当前制定"十五五"规划的内外部大环境相较于"十四五"期间发生了明显变化。 从国内环境看，相比于"十四五"规划，党的二十大报告根据形势的变化和认识的深化，在2035年远景目 标的阐述上作出一定调整，进一步明确了基本实现现代化的方向指引，这也将为"十五五"规划的编制锚 定目标方向。此外，当下国内经济面临的稳增长压力比五年前更复杂，一些中长期的困难和挑战已经浮 现，比如人口问题、外部的输入性风险等。 《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化的决定》(以下简称《决定》)共提出300多项 重要改革举措，目前正在陆续出台实施，"十五五"规划也会将与之相关的改革举措纳入其中。特别是 《决定》对"完善市场经济基础制度"作出的部署安排非常重要，涵盖产权保护、市场准入、公平竞争、 社会信用体系等四个基础性制度。这关乎我国市场经济的竞争力和社会信心，近期有关的法律规定已陆 续出台，"十五五"期间各地各有关部门要将这些基础性制度真正贯彻落实，才能为经济发展带来积极效 应。从下一 ...

Economic Growth and Trends - China's GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 is 5.4%, maintaining the same level as Q4 2024, driven primarily by consumption and exports[12] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 2.8%, up from 1.6% in the previous quarter[13] - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 was 4.6%, with a GDP deflator index growth rate of -0.8%, indicating weak domestic demand[13] Policy Measures - The government is implementing more proactive fiscal policies, with a focus on increasing the scale of deficits, special bonds, and treasury bonds[29] - In Q1 2025, general public budget expenditure and government fund expenditure grew by 5.6% year-on-year, with general public budget expenditure increasing by 4.2%[29] - Monetary policy remains moderately loose, with a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1% decrease in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate announced on May 7, 2025[39] Consumption and Investment - Retail sales in Q1 2025 showed a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, with service retail outperforming goods retail, indicating a shift towards service consumption[46] - Infrastructure investment in Q1 2025 grew by 11.5% year-on-year, supported by the accelerated issuance of special bonds[53] - Manufacturing investment growth in Q1 2025 was 9.1%, with significant increases in equipment purchases and high-tech industry investments[64] Export and External Environment - Short-term resilience in exports is noted, but uncertainties remain due to fluctuating U.S. tariff policies and global economic slowdown[2] - The net export contribution to GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 2.1%, reflecting a strong performance despite external challenges[13] Price Stability - Consumer prices (CPI) and producer prices (PPI) remain low, with the government aiming for a moderate recovery in prices as a key policy goal[6] - The overall price level is expected to stabilize, but the relationship between supply and demand needs further improvement to support price recovery[6]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a general upward trend in June, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,455.97 points, an increase of 3.24% compared to the end of May. The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices experienced significant gains [2][11][12] - In June, 23 out of 31 Shenwan first-level industries saw an increase, with the non-bank financial sector leading with a growth of 10.64% [12][41] - The consumer sector is expected to benefit from policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, with a focus on enhancing consumption potential [3][44] Market Liquidity and Risk Sentiment - As of June 25, the A-share market's liquidity improved, with a net increase in major shareholders' holdings amounting to 46.132 billion yuan, and the total amount of A-share unlocks reaching approximately 215.756 billion yuan, an increase from the previous month [24][28] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market increased to 12,943.21 billion yuan, up 6.55% from May [28][31] - The sentiment in the market was influenced by the easing of US-China trade tensions and the announcement of new policies aimed at supporting technology enterprises, which helped boost investor confidence [32][44] Policy Analysis - The Chinese government has introduced a series of measures to support consumption and economic growth, including 19 key initiatives aimed at enhancing financial services for consumption [44][45] - The introduction of the "1+6" policy measures for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board aims to better serve technology enterprises and enhance the inclusivity and adaptability of the system [45][46] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and strengthening the domestic circulation is expected to provide a solid foundation for sustained economic recovery [3][44] Valuation Levels - As of June 25, the dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the Shanghai 50 index is at a historical percentile of 78.44%, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical levels [41][42] - Most Shenwan first-level industries have seen an increase in valuation, with sectors such as retail, telecommunications, and electronics exceeding the historical 50th percentile for PE ratios [42][43]

Key Points - The article emphasizes the importance of high-quality development and the need for strategic actions in response to external pressures on the economy [3][4] - It highlights the significance of domestic consumption and the potential for growth in this area, particularly through policies aimed at increasing the income of middle and low-income groups [4][5] - The article discusses the necessity of expanding high-level opening-up to counterbalance external uncertainties, including the need for financial support for foreign trade [7][9] - It points out the resilience and adaptability of Chinese enterprises in facing external challenges, showcasing examples of businesses that have successfully navigated these pressures [12][14] - The integration of domestic and foreign trade is presented as a viable strategy for companies to enhance their competitiveness and market presence [15]

Core Viewpoint - Dongguan Rural Commercial Bank is actively responding to policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption by implementing innovative financial measures to support local economic development [2][5]. Group 1: Financial Services and Innovations - The bank focuses on simplifying processes, lowering thresholds, and accurately reaching target customers to enhance market vitality [2]. - It promotes the use of QR code payments in high-frequency consumer scenarios such as farmers' markets and convenience stores, significantly improving payment efficiency and consumer experience [2][3]. Group 2: Consumer Incentives and Promotions - Dongguan Rural Commercial Bank has launched various promotional activities to stimulate consumption, including discounts for customers using the bank's payment services at participating merchants [3]. - The "Spend and Save" campaign offers discounts such as "20 yuan off for spending 100 yuan" and "5 yuan off for spending 20 yuan," covering over 900 merchants across 30 towns [3]. Group 3: Collaboration and Community Engagement - The bank collaborates with local government and businesses to organize diverse promotional activities in key sectors like tourism, dining, and retail, effectively engaging different consumer groups [4]. - It has introduced a "trade-in" subsidy program for durable goods, encouraging consumers to upgrade their appliances [4]. Group 4: Digital Payment Expansion - Dongguan Rural Commercial Bank is promoting the use of digital RMB in retail, with over 30,000 digital wallets and services provided to more than 200 merchants [4]. - The bank aims to enhance the breadth and depth of digital payment services in core areas such as wholesale markets and dining [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The bank is committed to continuing its support for the real economy and optimizing financial service models to contribute to the prosperity of Dongguan's economy and the vitality of its consumption market [5].

Group 1 - Trump announced that the U.S. will hold talks with Iran next week and does not believe a nuclear agreement is necessary [3][10] - Nvidia's market capitalization reached a historic high of $3.75 trillion [3][12] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought HKD 94.20 billion in the market due to the Hong Kong dollar hitting the weak end of the peg [3][12] Group 2 - The U.S. Federal Reserve proposed to relax the supplementary leverage ratio requirements for large banks [3][12] - The housing regulator in the U.S. plans to accept cryptocurrencies as collateral for mortgages [3][12] - OPEC+ may consider increasing oil production if deemed necessary, with Russia willing to support this at the upcoming meeting [3][12] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Index closed up 1.23% at 24,474.67 points, marking a three-month high [5] - The A-share market saw significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.04% and the ChiNext Index up 3.11% [5] - The financial sector in Hong Kong and mainland China showed strong performance, particularly in insurance and securities [5]

金十数据整理：昨日今晨重要新闻汇总（6月26日） 国内新闻： 国际新闻： 1. 李强出席2025年夏季达沃斯论坛工商界代表座谈会。 2. 伊朗防长抵达中国参加上合防长会。 3. 香港金管局在市场买入94.20亿港元，因港元汇价触及弱方兑换保证。 4. 小鹏汽车：海外市场正在收紧零公里二手车的进口，小鹏并未采用这一出口模式。 5. 何立峰在河北调研时指出，积极扩大内需提振消费，更好推动经济高质量发展。 1. 消息称壳牌正就收购英国石油进行初步谈判。 2. 特朗普：将在三四人中选出下任美联储主席。 3. 高盛：铜价今年有望达到每吨10050美元峰值。 4. 英伟达市值创下历史新高，达到3.75万亿美元。 5. 美联储提议放宽针对大型银行的强化补充杠杆率要求。 6. 北约盟国同意到2035年提高国防开支目标至GDP的5%。 7. 欧洲汽车制造商协会：特斯拉5月欧盟新车注册量下降40.5%。 8. 消息人士：如果欧佩克认为有必要，俄罗斯愿意再次增产石油。 9. 拟将加密货币当作房贷抵押品，美住房监管主管要求"两房"做好准备。 10. 白宫经委会主任哈塞特：若各国达成贸易协议，则可取消特朗普税收法案中的"报复税"。 1 ...