每经记者｜岳楚鹏 蔡鼎 每经编辑｜兰素英 进入5月，美国金融圈的聚光灯正前所未有地聚焦于一种特殊的数字资产——稳定币。 随着美国参议院关键法案的推进和美国政府高层的公开力挺，这个总市值在大约5年间从200亿美元飙升至近2500亿美元的金融"物种"，正被寄予厚望，不仅 要成为美国经济实力的"助推器"，更被视为重塑美元全球地位和消化庞大国债的关键棋子。渣打银行的报告预计，到2028年底稳定币发行量将达2万亿美 元，由此带来额外1.6万亿美元的美国短期国债购买需求——"足以吸收特朗普第二任期内剩余时间里所有新增的短期国债发行量"。 然而，这场针对稳定币的战略布局，也可能在未来反噬自身。美银证券发出警示，随着稳定币的崛起，美国传统银行业恐面临高达6.6万亿美元的存款分 流。由于价值创造可能转移至银行体系外，美国银行股也将面临沉重估值压力。 《GENIUS法案》：稳定币走向主流的倒计时 当地时间5月19日，美国参议院以66票对32票的显著优势，通过了《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》（简称《GENIUS法案》）的程序性立法，为这 一旨在为稳定币量身定制监管框架的法案铺平了道路。不过，法案仍需参议院最终表决，并经众议院 ...

Group 1 - The traditional trust in the US dollar is gradually eroding, leading to a significant shift in global asset allocation towards gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3] - As of the end of 2024, the US dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves is projected to drop to 57.8%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the end of 2023, marking the lowest level since 1995 [3] - Major credit rating agencies have downgraded the US credit rating, with Moody's lowering it from Aaa to Aa1, citing deteriorating long-term fiscal conditions as a key factor [3] Group 2 - Gold is re-establishing its core position in the global financial system, with global gold demand expected to reach 4,974 tons in 2024, a 1.5% increase from 4,899 tons in 2023, driven by strong central bank purchases and rising investment demand [4] - Goldman Sachs predicts that central bank demand for gold will continue for at least two more years, potentially pushing gold prices to $4,000 per ounce [4] - A survey by Kitco indicates that 58% of retail investors expect gold prices to exceed $3,000 per ounce by 2025, reflecting strong market confidence in gold's long-term value [4] Group 3 - Global capital is increasingly flowing into safe-haven assets like gold, with a notable reduction in investment in US assets, which have decreased from over 90% to approximately 79% in recent years [5] - The allocation towards currencies such as the renminbi, euro, and yen has increased as investors seek opportunities outside the US [5]

Group 1 - The US dollar weakened due to disappointing initial jobless claims data, leading to a rebound in gold prices, which broke through the key psychological level of $3,300 per ounce [1] - The Federal Reserve's minutes from the May 6-7 meeting indicated that policymakers face a "dilemma" in the coming months, with rising inflation and unemployment rates increasing the risk of economic recession [1] - Gold, as a non-yielding asset, tends to be more attractive in a low-interest-rate environment, which may drive further investment interest [1] Group 2 - The global debt market is showing dangerous signals, with the US 30-year Treasury auction experiencing historic cold reception and the bid yield soaring to 4.85% [3] - The debt-to-GDP ratios for the US and Japan have surpassed 135% and 265% respectively, indicating unsustainable fiscal conditions that threaten the foundation of the US dollar [3] - Attention is focused on key upcoming events, including the PCE data release, OPEC+ production meeting, and G7 finance ministers' summit, which could influence monetary policy decisions [3] Group 3 - Technical analysts predict that spot gold is expected to test a support level of $3,272 per ounce, with a potential drop to the range of $3,215 to $3,243 if this level is breached [3] - The current correction phase in gold prices, starting from $3,336, may have the potential to break below the previous low of $3,253 [4] - Resistance is noted at $3,308, and if surpassed, prices could rise to the range of $3,330 to $3,348 [4]

Group 1 - The core conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell revolves around the Fed's decision to maintain high interest rates, which Trump argues is detrimental to U.S. manufacturing competitiveness [1][3] - Trump highlighted that the U.S. dollar index has risen by 12% since 2022, negatively impacting the profits of U.S. export companies, while China has stimulated its manufacturing sector through interest rate cuts [3][5] - Powell emphasized the Fed's commitment to data-driven decision-making, citing that core inflation remains above the 2% target and warning against premature rate cuts that could lead to a wage-price spiral [3][5] Group 2 - The historical context of the conflict dates back to 2017 when Trump nominated Powell, but their relationship soured after the Fed began raising interest rates in 2018 [4] - Trump's administration is currently attempting to reshape the Fed's decision-making body by nominating members with dovish tendencies, while facing legal and market constraints on removing Powell [4][5] - The current federal funds rate is maintained in the range of 4.25%-4.5%, close to the peak levels since 2001, with concerns about the implications of high rates on the economy and international competitiveness [5][7] Group 3 - The meeting reflects a deeper structural conflict between the "America First" policy and the independence of the Federal Reserve, highlighting three major challenges: rising federal debt exceeding $35 trillion, a declining share of the dollar in global reserves, and geopolitical shifts towards non-dollar trade agreements [8][10] - The Fed's monetary policy decisions will significantly influence global capital flows, with potential outcomes ranging from increased debt crises in emerging markets to a decline in the dollar's status as a reserve currency [8][10] - The ongoing power struggle between political and economic cycles is expected to intensify as the 2026 Fed chair transition approaches, indicating a period of heightened uncertainty in the financial markets [10]

Core Points - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled against several tariff executive orders from the Trump administration, marking a significant judicial setback for the former president [2][5] - Following the ruling, the Trump administration quickly appealed, and the Federal Circuit Court temporarily stayed the Trade Court's decision, allowing the tariffs to remain in effect during the appeal process [2][5] - The rapid reversal of the court's decision briefly boosted financial markets, but the dollar remained weak, indicating increased market volatility and a potential shift in the financial landscape [3][6] Tariff Policy Impact - Trump's significant tariff increases on various goods, including steel, aluminum, electronics, and agricultural products, aimed to protect U.S. industries and reduce trade deficits, but led to global market turmoil and criticism from major economies [4][5] - The tariffs have polarized domestic reactions, with some U.S. manufacturing and agricultural groups supporting them, while sectors like technology and retail warn of rising costs and diminished consumer confidence [4][5] - Economists predict that an escalation of the tariff conflict could slow global economic growth and potentially trigger a new recession [4] Market Reactions - The financial markets have experienced rare simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, a phenomenon referred to as the "triple whammy," indicating structural vulnerabilities in the U.S. financial system [7][8] - The simultaneous downturn reflects a significant shock to investor confidence, with historical data showing that such occurrences are typically rare and indicative of severe underlying issues [7][8] Investor Sentiment - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and market volatility has eroded investor confidence, prompting a reassessment of the U.S. market's safe-haven status and accelerating a trend towards diversification in investment strategies [6][12] - Investors are increasingly shifting their focus to non-dollar assets, such as Japanese bonds, gold, and Chinese assets, as the appeal of traditional U.S. assets diminishes [12][13] Future Outlook - The long-term outlook for the U.S. financial markets will depend on several factors, including the continuation of Trump's policies, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, and investors' asset allocation choices [14] - The potential for a trade agreement with China could restore confidence in the dollar and U.S. assets, while aggressive monetary easing by the Fed could further undermine the dollar's global standing [14][15] - The ongoing challenges to the institutional framework supporting the dollar, including attacks on the Federal Reserve's independence, may lead to a reevaluation of the dollar's dominance in global finance [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - The intertwining of U.S. military and financial hegemony is creating a vicious cycle of military spending and currency devaluation, leading to a global arms race dominated by the U.S. [1] Military Spending - The U.S. military budget for 2024 is projected to reach $997 billion, accounting for 37% of global military expenditures, with expectations to exceed $1 trillion by fiscal year 2026 [3] - A significant portion of this budget, 44%, is allocated to personnel salaries and pensions, raising concerns about the actual investment in weapon modernization compared to China [3] - The funding is primarily aimed at maintaining 140 military bases and 800 overseas military facilities [3] Financial Strategy - The U.S. is leveraging military deterrence and financial extraction by compelling allies to purchase American weapons and binding them to the dollar-based financial system [4] - In 2023, U.S. military aid to Ukraine amounted to $6 billion, with over 40% returning to the U.S. defense industry through arms orders, illustrating the closed-loop of military aid, arms trade, and dollar repatriation [4] Currency Devaluation - The U.S. dollar index has fallen by 8% since 2024, while the U.S. is transferring the costs of its hegemony through "fiscal deficit monetization," exporting inflation globally [5] - The national debt has surpassed $35 trillion, with the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policies shifting debt costs to countries holding dollar assets [5] Political Implications - The military-financial model is increasingly constraining U.S. domestic spending, with military expenditure reaching 3.2% of GDP in 2024, significantly above NATO's 2% standard [7] - The military-industrial complex is influencing U.S. politics, as seen in Trump's 2025 legislation linking military spending increases to tax cuts for the wealthy [7] Global Response - The credibility of the dollar is being undermined, with oil-producing nations like Saudi Arabia exploring non-dollar settlement systems and BRICS countries promoting local currency swap agreements [9] - To maintain its hegemony, the U.S. is compelled to increase military spending, with the 2026 budget focusing on next-generation aircraft and nuclear modernization for global military interventions [9] Conclusion - The U.S. has demonstrated over 70 years that hegemony cannot be sustained indefinitely, as military spending erodes future prospects and currency devaluation undermines global trust [11] - A new global governance order based on multilateralism is needed, moving away from the zero-sum game of military intervention [11]

Group 1 - The article highlights China's strategic shift away from US debt, emphasizing a significant reduction in US Treasury holdings from $1.3 trillion to $784.3 billion, marking a clear separation from US financial policies [4] - China's gold reserves have increased to 2,292 tons, with a rise in the gold reserve ratio from 3% to 5%, indicating a move towards building a financial firewall against US economic instability [4] - The internationalization of the Renminbi is accelerating, with 90% of oil transactions in Pakistan now settled in Renminbi and significant transactions occurring in Saudi Arabia, showcasing a shift in global trade dynamics [5][7] Group 2 - The US faces a daunting debt situation, with a total debt of $36.4 trillion and interest payments of $2.7 billion daily, raising concerns about the sustainability of its fiscal policies [2] - The article discusses the implications of the US's debt ceiling agreement, suggesting it merely postpones a larger financial crisis rather than addressing underlying issues [2] - The global financial landscape is shifting, with countries like Brazil and Argentina engaging in currency swaps, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange experiencing a surge in trading volume, indicating a move towards alternative financial systems [7][9] Group 3 - The article posits that the US dollar's dominance is being challenged, as evidenced by the IMF increasing the Renminbi's weight to 12.28% and the growing number of countries adopting local currency settlement agreements [5][9] - The US's reliance on debt issuance and Federal Reserve policies is likened to a Ponzi scheme, with even traditional allies like Japan reducing their holdings of US debt [2][6] - The narrative suggests that the US's financial practices are outdated, while China is establishing a new financial order based on gold and the Renminbi, positioning itself as a rule-maker in the global economy [7][9]

一天，法外狂徒张三，发行了1个亿的张三币，声称1个张三币可以兑换1美元，可以绕过银行系统进行 各种黑白灰交易以及跨境支付而不被监管，然后让你去买。你大概会觉得他是骗子，也不会去买。心里 想的是，我要是买了张三币，以后要是换不回美元不就瞎了？ 可是，如果发行稳定币的人是马斯克，你信吗？如果发行稳定币的是巴菲特？你可能犹豫。如果发行稳 定币的是美国财政部和特朗普家族呢？你大概就会相信了。现在在美国，发行各种稳定币的，就是马斯 克、央行、总统家族这个级别的机构，是不是就更可信了？ 美国财长贝森特在一次访谈中表示，特朗普政府正全力押注加密货币领域，并正在努力为数字资产企业 提供明确的监管框架。贝森特重申了他的预测，美元稳定币将在短期内为美国国债和票据创造2 万亿美 元需求，远超目前的3000亿美元规模。 通过发行美元稳定币，让其他国家的民众可以借助虚拟币绕开本国的监管，侧面给普通民众开了一条投 资美债的通道，有利于资产的美元化。说的通俗点，你现在手上有20万元人民币，以前你先想买美债， 但国内没有渠道，现在给你提供了一个稳定币的购买渠道。 最近稳定币很火，美国参议院刚刚推进了其有史以来第一份稳定币法案《GENIUS ...

Core Viewpoint - China's selling of US Treasury bonds is putting significant pressure on the US government, forcing President Trump to reconsider his stance towards China amid the ongoing trade negotiations [1][10][17] Group 1: Financial Impact - The US Treasury is facing a daily interest expense of $3 billion, while China's holdings of $765.4 billion in US debt are depreciating by 1% daily [2][5] - The short positions on 10-year US Treasuries have surged to levels not seen since 2008, with $3.8 trillion in capital fleeing from dollar assets [2][10] - If China continues to reduce its US debt holdings by 5%, the Pentagon may need to cut its budget for two aircraft carrier battle groups next year [7][10] Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The recent 13% appreciation of the euro against the dollar threatens the foundation of the petrodollar system [4][10] - China's share of global oil trade settled in yuan has increased to 2.3%, a 15-fold increase from three years ago [5][10] - The Chinese government is allowing companies to use iron ore and copper concentrate as collateral for loans in yuan, facilitating bypassing the dollar in commodity transactions [9][10] Group 3: Strategic Moves - The negotiations in Geneva include a clause where China demands recognition of the yuan's special drawing rights, which would effectively grant the yuan an "international passport" [7][10] - China's reduction of US debt holdings is part of a broader strategy to internationalize the yuan and challenge the dollar's dominance [14][15] - The ongoing trade war has transformed into a financial battle, with the key to victory being the internationalization of local currencies [14][15]

2025年全球金融圈最炸裂的一幕出现了：澳大利亚工党政府公开拒绝配合美国"联美排华"，直言"中国重要性强美国十倍"！ 一边是中国连续15个月抛售美债，成批黄金直运上海金库；另一边，美国财长连夜致电北京，特朗普威胁盟友加税却遭反呛。 澳大利亚对华出口额是美国的10倍，当中国手握7000亿美债成美国"命门"，这场经济博弈的本质早已不是贸易战，而是霸权逻辑与生存理性的终极对决。 一、美债抛售潮：中国如何用"金融武器"反制美国霸权？ 中国单月减持美债119亿美元，全年累计抛售573亿美元，持仓量跌至7590亿美元，这是自2008年金融危机以来最低水平。 中国抛售的不仅是美债，更是对美元霸权的釜底抽薪。 2025年3月，成批黄金通过专机从纽约联储金库直飞上海，中国黄金储备突破2279吨，连续18个月增持。 人民币跨境支付系统（CIPS）覆盖180国，处理量同比激增42%，中东石油人民币结算占比突破12%。 二、澳大利亚反水：10倍贸易差下的"经济理性觉醒" 当特朗普计划对澳大利亚钢铝加税时，澳贸易部长法雷尔的反击震惊世界："中国是'钞能力'十倍的客户，我们绝不联美排华！ " 数据揭示现实：2023-2024财年，澳大利 ...