五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 农产品早报 2025-05-22 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 联系人 从业资格号：F03114441 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周三美豆震荡小幅收涨，美豆新作平衡表在贸易战缓和及产量不增情景下有偏紧趋势，阿根廷局部产量 受损及本周美豆产区降雨过多或推迟播种提供一定支撑。不过已播种区域降雨偏好限制涨幅。周三国内 豆粕现货涨跌互现 10 元/吨左右，华东低价报 2850 元/吨。据 MYSTEEL 预估 5 月大豆预计到港 919.75 万吨，6 月 1100 万吨，7 月 1050 万吨。据 MYSTEEL 预估本周大豆压榨量预计来到 220 万吨高位，国内 供应压力增大。上周港口大豆库存继续增加，同比偏高约 120 万吨，油厂豆粕库存偏低报 12 万吨左右。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周中部降雨较多，可能对播种有所影响。巴 ...

五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 农产品早报 2025-05-21 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 联系人 从业资格号：F03114441 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周二美豆震荡小幅收涨，美豆新作平衡表在贸易战缓和及产量不增情景下有偏紧趋势，阿根廷局部产量 受损及本周美豆产区降雨过多或推迟播种提供一定支撑。周二国内豆粕现货下跌，因开机率提升，华东 低价报 2850 元/吨。据 MYSTEEL 预估 5 月大豆预计到港 919.75 万吨，6 月 1100 万吨，7 月 1050 万吨。 据 MYSTEEL 预估本周大豆压榨量预计来到 220 万吨高位，国内供应压力增大。上周港口大豆库存继续 增加，同比偏高约 120 万吨，油厂豆粕库存偏低报 12 万吨左右。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周中部降雨较多，可能对播种有所影响。巴西农民大豆销售进度已超过 60%，后期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][6][8] Core Viewpoints - The cotton market has limited upward - driving forces and will likely oscillate. Although the market sentiment has improved due to the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, factors such as high export tariffs, uncertain supply and demand, and a lack of strong incentives in the planting end restrict the cotton price's rebound space [1][2][3] - The sugar market's overall trend is mainly influenced by the international market. Although domestic sugar prices are currently supported, if Brazil's high - yield expectations are gradually realized, Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to follow the decline of raw sugar [5][6] - The pulp market's price is affected by macro - emotions and supply - demand relationships. Although the macro - sentiment has improved, the high inventory and weak demand will keep the pulp futures price in a low - level oscillation in the short term [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,390 yuan/ton yesterday, with no change from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,474 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 14,566 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Import: In April 2025, China's cotton imports were 60,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous month and 280,000 tons from the same period last year [1] Market Analysis - Macro: Sino - US economic and trade relations have eased, but the actual tariff on textile and clothing exports to the US remains high, and the tariff policy's uncertainty will increase after 90 days [2] - International: USDA has adjusted the 25/26 global cotton balance sheet, but there are many uncertainties, and the supply - side weather factors currently lack a strong narrative [2] - Domestic: The cotton - planting area has increased slightly, the cotton seedlings are growing well, the inventory is being depleted, and the demand has not declined sharply. However, it has entered the off - season, and the demand expectation is weakening [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. In the short term, the cotton price may oscillate strongly, but the rebound space is limited [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,853 yuan/ton yesterday, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,120 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,910 yuan/ton, also unchanged [4] - Import: In April 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 80,000 tons from the same period last year [4] Market Analysis - International: Brazil's mid - southern sugar production in the second half of April was lower than expected, but most institutions are optimistic about the supply in the 25/26 season, and the raw sugar price is under pressure [5] - Domestic: The domestic sugar sales and production data are favorable, and the short - term import volume is limited. However, the long - term import pressure is expected to increase, and the price increase space is restricted [5][6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy, focusing on Brazil's production and domestic import rhythm [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5,390 yuan/ton yesterday, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 6,325 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of Russian needles was 5,425 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [6] - Market: The prices of imported pulp in different regions showed different trends, with some rising and some loosening [6] Market Analysis - Macro: The "reciprocal tariff" policy has increased the pulp price's volatility, but the improvement of Sino - US relations has promoted the pulp price's rebound [7] - Supply: The decrease in the foreign - exchange quotation has weakened the cost support, and the inventory is still at a high level, suppressing the market price [7] - Demand: European demand has not improved significantly, and domestic downstream demand is weak, and there is a possibility of further weakening in the off - season [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The pulp futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties (corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and hogs) are rated as "Sideways" [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Corn**: The sentiment in the corn market has changed, with the selling price loosening. The futures and spot markets are adjusting. The futures price is under pressure due to concerns about imported corn auctions. Technically, it is in a high - level sideways pattern, and short - term attention should be paid to the support of the long - term moving average of the July contract [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose in technical trading, but weather in the US Midwest and policy uncertainty regarding biofuels limited the upside. In Argentina, some soybean losses may occur due to storms. In China, the protein meal market declined, and the spot price of soybean meal dropped, dragging down both near - and far - month contracts. The oil mills' high expected soybean crushing volume and slow downstream procurement led to a rapid decline in the spot price. It is recommended to hold a long - short spread strategy for the 9 - 1 contract [1]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil rose, ending a two - day decline, supported by the strength of soybean oil. High - frequency data showed an 8.5% increase in Malaysian palm oil production from May 1 - 15. The 6 - month tariff was reduced from 10% to 9.5%. In China, rapeseed oil led the rise, and soybean oil and palm oil also moved up. The supply of oils has increased since May, but demand is weak, and the basis is expected to decline. The trading strategy is intraday trading [1]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures contracts showed a downward trend. The spot price decreased. The Dragon Boat Festival demand will support the short - term egg price, but the upcoming rainy season and increasing supply may lead to a weak egg price in the future. Attention should be paid to the changes in feed raw material prices and farmers' culling intentions [1][2]. - **Hogs**: The hog futures showed a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness. The September contract is at a discount to the spot price. The feed cost is expected to decline, putting pressure on the hog price. Technically, short - term attention should be paid to the support at 13,500 yuan for the September contract, and long - term investors should wait for opportunities to enter the market [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information - The US has adjusted the wording of the guide's press release, but the discriminatory measures and market - distorting nature of the guide remain unchanged. China firmly opposes the US's abuse of export control measures against Chinese chip products [3]. - A US private exporter reported selling 145,000 tons of soybean meal to the Philippines for delivery in the 2024/2025 season [3]. - As of May 19, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.49403 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 275,050 tons [3]. - As of the week ending May 15, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 217,842 tons, down from the previous week. The cumulative export inspection volume for this crop year (starting from September 1) was 44.131939 million tons, higher than the same period last year [3][4]. - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for June to the level corresponding to a 9.5% export tariff, from 4,449.35 ringgit per ton in May to 3,926.59 ringgit per ton [4]. Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads and contract basis for different agricultural products, including corn, soybean, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and hogs, such as the 9 - 1 spreads and basis of these products [5][6][8][9][12][14][15][18][20][27]

从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 联系人 从业资格号：F03114441 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 大豆/粕类 【重要资讯】 农产品早报 2025-05-19 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周五美豆窄幅下跌，EPA 已向白宫提交了 RVO 规则供审核，但传言提交的版本大幅低于市场预期，美 豆油弱势带动美豆下跌。周末国内豆粕现货小幅下跌，因开机率提升，华东低价报2880元/吨。据MYSTEEL 预估 5 月大豆预计到港 919.75 万吨，6 月 1100 万吨，7 月 1050 万吨。据 MYSTEEL 预估本周大豆压榨 量预计来到 220 万吨高位，国内供应压力增大。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周中部降雨较多，可能对播种有所影响。巴西农民大豆销售进度已超过 60%，后期卖压 或逐步下降，另一方面，巴西也有对中美关系恢复的担忧，有利润的情况下当地也会积极出货 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-05-15 美豆延续涨势，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2914元/吨，较前日变动+28元/吨，幅度+0.97%；菜粕2509合约2509元/吨，较前 日变动+22元/吨，幅度+0.88%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3020元/吨，较前日变动-60元/吨，现货基差 M09+106，较前日变动-88；江苏地区豆粕现货2990元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M09+76，较前日变动-28； 广东地区豆粕现货价格3030元/吨，较前日变动跌+10元/吨，现货基差M09+116，较前日变动-18。福建地区菜粕现 货价格2440元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差RM09-69，较前日变动-22。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部在每周作物生长报告中公布称，截至2025年5月11日当周，美国大豆种植率为48%,高于 市场预期的47%，此前一周为30%,去年同期为34%,五年均值为37%。截至当周，美国大豆出苗率为17%，上一周为 7%，上年同期为15%，五年均值为11%。巴西对外贸易秘书处公布的出口数据显示，巴西5月前两周出口大豆 4,766 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [2] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral to bearish [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment has warmed up, and the sector has rebounded with fluctuations. For cotton, the macro - situation and new - season supply expectations affect prices; for sugar, the global supply - demand balance and Brazilian production are key factors; for pulp, macro policies and fundamental supply - demand conditions influence the price trend [1][2][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,445 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton (+0.86%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,429 yuan/ton, up 97 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,484 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. As of May 11, the cotton planting rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states was 28%, 4% slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five - year average [1] - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices rebounded with fluctuations. The substantial progress in Sino - US negotiations and the expected reduction in US cotton planting area supported cotton prices, but the acceleration of US cotton sowing and the expected increase in domestic cotton planting area also affected the market. Spinning mills were cautious in purchasing, and downstream demand was expected to weaken in the off - season [2] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Although the macro - sentiment has improved, the domestic market is in the consumption off - season, and the expected high yield in the new season may suppress the upside space of cotton prices [2] Sugar - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5906 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton (+0.91%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6160 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5920 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Green Pool predicted a small surplus of 1.15 million tons in the 2025/26 global sugar supply, with an expected 5.3% increase in production to 199.1 million tons and a 0.95% increase in consumption to 197 million tons [2][3] - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were strong. The lower - than - expected sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in late April pushed up the external market, but the expected high yield in the new Brazilian season limited the upside. The good domestic production and sales data supported domestic sugar prices, and the short - term import limitation and tightened policies also made domestic sugar prices more resistant [4] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Zhengzhou sugar mainly follows the trend of raw sugar, and attention should be paid to Brazilian weather and policy changes [6] Pulp - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5378 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan/ton (+1.93%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6300 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5360 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton. The prices of imported wood pulp in the spot market showed different trends [6] - **Market Analysis**: Pulp futures prices continued to rebound. The improvement in macro - sentiment had a short - term positive impact, but the fundamental support was weak. The reduction in foreign dollar quotes and high inventory levels put pressure on prices, and both European and domestic demand were weak, with the off - season approaching [7] - **Strategy**: Neutral to bearish. Although pulp prices have rebounded recently due to macro - factors, the off - season of the paper - making industry is coming, and demand is expected to weaken further. It is recommended to take short - selling positions on price increases [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The USDA May supply - demand report had mixed impacts on agricultural products. The prices of some products like cotton rose, while others such as palm oil, sugar, and bean粕 declined. The overall agricultural product market showed a diversified trend with different influencing factors for each variety [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Cotton - The cotton main 2509 contract continued to rise despite a pull - back. The Sino - US high - level economic and trade talks' positive outcome, domestic macro - benefits, and reduced commercial inventory supported the price increase. However, the textile industry is in a off - season [2]. - Technically, it showed strength. The strategy is to go long on dips with a support level of 13270 and a resistance level of 13475 [3]. Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2509 contract reversed and fell. The MPOB April report showed a significant increase in Malaysian palm oil production and inventory, while exports met expectations. The large increase in production and inventory pressured the price [4]. - The contract entered a downward trend. The strategy is to short on rallies with a support level of 7812 and a resistance level of 8000 [4]. Sugar - The sugar main 2509 contract rebounded but then fell sharply. Overseas raw sugar price drops and the opening of the domestic sugar out - of - quota import profit window limited its rebound [6]. - Technically, it weakened. The strategy is short - term trading with a support level of 5827 and a resistance level of 5892 [6]. Bean粕 - The bean粕 main 2509 contract continued to decline. Although the USDA report was bullish for US soybeans, fast sowing in the US and large domestic soybean imports increased supply, weakening downstream demand [9]. - Technically, it was weak. The strategy is to short on rallies with a support level of 2865 and a resistance level of 2900 [9]. Bean一 - The bean一 main 2507 contract oscillated and fell. Stable domestic soybean prices due to less remaining beans at the grass - roots level were offset by weak downstream demand and increased imported soybean supply [10]. - Technically, it was weak. The strategy is to hold short positions with a support level of 4130 and a resistance level of 4175 [12]. Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main 2509 contract rose first and then fell. The USDA report increased US soybean oil demand in biofuels, but large domestic soybean imports and increased supply pressured the price [13]. - Technically, it weakened. The strategy is short - term shorting with a support level of 7770 and a resistance level of 7866 [13]. Corn - The corn main 2507 contract continued to fall. The Sino - US tariff reduction may increase imports, and rumors of state corn reserve auctions added bearish sentiment. Substitute pressure and weak downstream demand also contributed to the decline [15]. - Technically, it weakened. The strategy is short - term trading with a support level of 2335 and a resistance level of 2361 [15]. Pig - The pig 2509 contract oscillated at a low level. High inventory on the breeding side and weak demand after the May Day holiday led to an oversupply situation [17]. - Technically, it was weak. The strategy is to hold light short positions with a support level of 13800 and a resistance level of 13915 [17]. Egg - The egg main 2506 contract oscillated and fell. High egg - laying hen inventory and sufficient egg supply limited the price rebound [19]. - Technically, it faced downward pressure. The strategy is to hold light short positions with a support level of 2900 and a resistance level of 2933 [19]. Apple - The apple main 2510 contract gapped down. High apple prices in production areas and increased substitute consumption from competing fruits pressured the price [22]. - Technically, it was weak. The strategy is to hold light short positions with a support level of 7690 and a resistance level of 7800 [22].