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刚刚!美联储,降息大消息!
券商中国· 2025-08-10 05:54
美联储副主席的最新讲话释放重磅信号。 美东时间8月9日,美联储副主席米歇尔·鲍曼表示,支持今年降息三次并敦促美联储在9月议息会议上启动降息。她认为,关税 政策推动的美国物价上涨不太可能持续推高通胀。 根据CME美联储观察的数据,当前投资者认为美联储在9月降息25个基点的可能性已经高达88.9%。因此,市场普遍认为,美 联储9月降息已几近定局,悬念已转向50个基点。 下周,美股市场将迎来一系列重磅数据,其中包括美国7月CPI数据、7月PPI数据和7月零售数据等。分析指出,这将为美联 储调整货币政策提供重要参考,或将对美联储降息前景产生扰动。 支持美联储年内降息三次 北京时间8月10日,美联储官网发布了负责监管的美联储副主席米歇尔·鲍曼的最新讲话稿,她表示,支持在2025年年内降息三 次,并指出这一立场因美国近期疲弱的劳动力市场数据而得到了强化。 在美东时间周六于科罗拉多斯普林斯向堪萨斯银行家协会发表的讲话中,鲍曼呼吁美联储在9月会议上开始降息。 她表示,这将有助于避免劳动力市场出现进一步不必要的恶化,并降低在劳动力市场进一步恶化时,委员会不得不采取更大 幅度政策纠偏的可能性。 鲍曼认为,关税政策推动的物价上涨不 ...
纽约金价7日上涨
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 01:05
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant increase in gold prices, driven by central banks' continuous accumulation of gold reserves and strong technical factors, with gold futures for December 2025 rising by $49.3 to $3482.7 per ounce, marking a 1.44% increase [1] - Central banks' purchases of gold are identified as a key driver for the 30% increase in gold prices this year, with expectations that this trend will continue, although the pace of purchases may slow down as prices rise [1] - The article notes that the U.S. Department of Labor reported an increase in initial jobless claims to 226,000, exceeding market expectations, indicating a weakening labor market, which contributed to the rise in gold prices [1] Group 2 - On the technical side, December gold futures are noted to have a strong overall technical advantage for the bulls [1] - Silver futures for September also saw an increase, rising by 62.8 cents to $38.530 per ounce, reflecting a 1.66% gain [1]
美国就业市场疲态尽显 续请失业金人数创2021年底以来新高
智通财经网· 2025-08-07 13:48
Group 1 - The number of Americans filing for continued unemployment benefits has surged to its highest level since November 2021, indicating a weakening labor market [1] - As of the week ending July 26, continued unemployment claims increased by 38,000 to 1.97 million, exceeding market expectations [1] - Initial unemployment claims for the week ending August 2 rose to 226,000, slightly above market expectations, suggesting that job seekers are facing more difficulties [1] Group 2 - Investors and economists are closely monitoring any signs of further deterioration in the labor market, especially after the July non-farm payroll report showed significantly fewer new jobs than expected [3] - The report led to downward revisions of employment data for May and June, increasing expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3] - Despite a generally low level of layoffs this year, some large companies, including Merck and Intel, have announced layoffs, with Stanford University planning to cut over 300 jobs due to federal funding reductions [3] Group 3 - Another report indicated that U.S. labor productivity rebounded in the second quarter, aligning with economic growth and helping to mitigate wage-related inflation pressures [3]
Vatee万腾:美国非农数据回头看遭大幅下修,就业强劲表象松动?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-06 10:20
非农就业数据历来是美联储观察经济冷热的核心指标之一。它直接影响利率政策预期、美元走势乃至股 债市场情绪。 但这个数据并非一锤定音,往往存在"事后回头修"的现象。每月非农报告发布后,通常会在随后两个月 进行初步修正,而每年还会在次年年初发布所谓"基准修订"(BenchmarkRevision),通过对涵盖更多样 本与更全面税务数据的分析,对过去一年甚至更久的数据进行再校准。 在市场密切关注美联储政策走向之际,就业数据这一关键指标正在释放不同于表面的信号。高盛最新研 报指出,美国劳工部对5月与6月的非农就业新增人数合计下调了25.8万,创下1968年以来最大规模的两 个月修正纪录。 不仅如此,高盛还预测,今年9月即将发布的年度非农就业基准修订初步估算将进一步大幅下调55万至 95万人,这一数字远超市场预期,可能重塑市场对当前劳动力市场"强劲"的认知。 非农数据的"修正门":为何重要? Vatee万腾据悉,高盛预计9月发布的修订将对去年全年数据下修55万至95万人之间,若兑现,将成为近 十年来最大规模的基准调整。此前2023年1月的修订下调仅5万人,影响相对温和,而此次可能多达十 倍。 其他同步指标已现疲态 与非农 ...
特朗普想让美联储大幅降息?先得过FOMC票委这关
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-08-05 12:45
Core Viewpoint - The focus on monetary policy decision-making is increasing due to President Trump's calls for significant interest rate cuts and his influence over the Federal Reserve's leadership [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - Trump is expected to appoint a replacement for Fed Governor Kugler, who is resigning early, potentially influencing the Fed's direction on interest rates [1]. - If Powell resigns at the end of his term in May 2026, Trump will have another opportunity to fill a vacancy, which could lead to a majority of Trump-appointed members on the Fed Board [2][3]. - The appointment of new members could give the new chair significant leverage to pursue their agenda, but local Fed presidents are likely to vote based on macroeconomic conditions rather than political influence [3]. Group 2: Voting Dynamics and Economic Considerations - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) requires a majority vote to change interest rates, emphasizing the need for economic rather than political justification for any rate cuts [1][2]. - Recent voting showed a 9-2 decision to maintain the current interest rate, indicating the importance of consensus among committee members [1]. - The upcoming voting members from regional Fed banks may present resistance to politically influenced decisions, focusing instead on economic fundamentals [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Potential Rate Cuts - Predictions indicate that at least two rate cuts may occur in 2025, with the potential for increased support for cuts if labor market conditions worsen [5]. - Concerns about the credibility of the next chair could lead to rising inflation expectations and higher long-term interest rates if consensus is not achieved [5].
全球宏观论坛 - 解读行情:宏观数据、央行与利率变动-Global Macro Forum-Reading the Tape Macro Data, Central Banks, and Rates Moves
2025-08-05 08:17
Summary of Morgan Stanley Global Macro Forum Call Industry Overview - **Focus**: Global macroeconomic trends, particularly in the US economy and interest rates - **Key Participants**: Vishwanath Tirupattur, Michael Gapen, Seth Carpenter, Matthew Hornbach, Martin Tobias, James Lord Key Points Economic Indicators - **2Q GDP Performance**: Domestic demand has softened significantly, slowing to a 1.2% pace from 2.7% in the previous year [5] - **Labor Market Trends**: There is a sharp drop-off in labor demand, with downward revisions to May and June employment figures totaling 258,000 [40][7] - **Recession Signals**: A deceleration in nonfarm payrolls is more closely correlated with recession risk than revisions to prior data [11] Central Bank Policies - **Federal Reserve Outlook**: The expectation is that the Fed will maintain its current policy stance, with no rate cuts projected until March 2026 despite rising inflation [40] - **Global Central Banks**: The Fed and the Bank of Japan are expected to remain on hold, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of England may ease policies this year [40] Interest Rates and Market Dynamics - **Market-Implied Rates**: The market is pricing the Fed's policy trough rate to move well below 3.00% [15][40] - **Term Premiums**: Concerns regarding the quality of US economic data and a dovish bias from the FOMC are expected to keep term premiums elevated [40] - **USD Outlook**: Continued weakness in the USD is anticipated, with expectations that the bear market for the currency is not over [40] Treasury Issuance - **Composition of Treasury Issuance**: Bills have been crucial in financing Treasury's borrowing needs, and this trend is expected to continue, leading to a lower weighted average maturity (WAM) of marketable debt [28][31][40] Investment Strategies - **Recommended Positions**: - Long UST 5-year notes and FVU5 futures - Short 10-year TIPS breakevens - Long January 2026 fed funds futures - Stay short USD [40][41] Additional Insights - **Tariff Impact**: Evidence of tariff pass-through is becoming clearer, with prices of goods exposed to tariffs showing sharper increases [40] - **Inflation Concerns**: Inflation remains a significant concern for the Fed, with expectations of price pressures in heavily tariffed goods [40] Conclusion The call highlighted a cooling US economy with significant implications for labor demand and central bank policies. The anticipated trajectory of interest rates and the ongoing weakness of the USD present both risks and opportunities for investors. The focus on Treasury issuance and the impact of tariffs on inflation further complicate the macroeconomic landscape.
美联储会否在9月降息?
2025-08-05 03:15
Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly focusing on the implications of the "anti-involution" policy in various industries. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Anti-Involution Policy**: This policy aims to address issues of low prices and disorderly competition within specific industries, primarily targeting local governments and enterprises. It is not a macroeconomic policy but rather an industry-specific measure [2][3] 2. **Beneficiary Industries**: The industries benefiting from the anti-involution policy can be categorized into three groups: - **Group 1**: Industries with low economic activity but recovering profitability, such as wind power, rebar steel, and cement [2] - **Group 2**: Industries with bottoming fundamentals but strong expectations, including photovoltaic, general equipment, and medical devices [2] - **Group 3**: Industries with high economic activity but lacking real estate policy expectations, such as batteries and medical aesthetics [2] 3. **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision**: There is a significant divergence in market opinions regarding the likelihood of a rate cut in September. However, based on economic data, the probability of a rate cut appears substantial [4][11] 4. **Economic Data Insights**: - The second quarter GDP data indicates a slowdown in U.S. economic activity, with internal demand weakening [4] - Personal consumption expenditures increased their contribution to GDP from 0.3% in Q1 to approximately 1% in Q2, while private investment stagnated, negatively impacting GDP [5] 5. **Employment Data**: The July non-farm payroll data showed a significant shortfall, with only 73,000 jobs added, indicating a sharp decline in hiring momentum [6] 6. **Labor Market Dynamics**: Job growth is concentrated in healthcare and social assistance, while goods production and federal government employment are major detractors [7] 7. **Labor Market Indicators**: The labor force participation rate has declined, and the unemployment rate has increased, particularly among Black workers. Long-term unemployment has risen, but hourly wages have been adjusted upward [8] 8. **Manufacturing and Inflation**: The manufacturing sector has shown signs of decline, with pressures on demand and employment. Inflationary pressures are expected to be manageable in the near term [10] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Federal Reserve Chair Powell's Remarks**: Powell noted that the weakening supply-demand dynamics in the labor market pose risks, despite a stable unemployment rate [9] 2. **Market Reactions**: The rapid replenishment of the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) could lead to rising overnight financing rates, influencing the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [10]
美联储理事库格勒宣布辞职
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-03 17:30
当地时间8月1日,美联储表示,理事库格勒(Adriana Kugler)将辞职提前离开美联储理事会,辞呈于8 月8日正式生效。在美国总统特朗普推动降低利率之际,这给他创造了美联储一个重要的职位空缺,也 给未来美联储主席任命带来了些许不确定性。 库格勒于2023年9月被前总统拜登任命为美联储理事会成员。她是第一位西班牙裔美联储理事,在加入 美联储之前,她是乔治城大学的教授,也曾是美国驻世界银行的代表。 美联储理事沃勒和美联储监管副主席鲍曼投票反对维持利率不变,希望降息25个基点。这标志着自1993 年12月格林斯潘时代以来,理事会七人首次有两名成员正式反对FOMC的决定。 回顾历史,美联储理事反对票相对罕见,大多数反对票源于地区联储主席。上一次出现理事反对票是在 去年9月的会议上,当时鲍曼希望降息25个基点,而不是最终决定的50个基点,上一次两位地区联储主 席投票反对FOMC共识是在2019年10月。 当地时间上周五,鲍曼和沃勒回应了自己赞成降息的原因,因为他们越来越担心劳动力市场。沃勒 说:"我认为观望的态度过于谨慎。"他重申了今年一直强调的一个信念:关税将导致一次性价格上涨, 但不会导致持续的通货膨胀,美联 ...
突发!美联储重要人事变化
第一财经· 2025-08-02 01:58
2025.08. 02 本文字数:1229,阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 库格勒的提前退出可能会动摇目前围绕美联储主席鲍威尔的继任进程的时间表。鲍威尔的任期将于明 年5月结束,特朗普一再威胁要解雇鲍威尔,认为利率应该远低于现在。 封图 | 库格勒 资料图 美联储周五表示,理事库格勒(Adriana Kugler)将辞职提前离开美联储董事会,于8月8日正式生 效。在美国总统特朗普推动降低利率之际,这给他创造了美联储一个重要的职位空缺,也给未来美联 储主席任命带来了些许不确定性。 库格勒于2023年9月被前总统拜登任命为美联储理事会成员。她是第一位西班牙裔美联储理事,在加 入美联储之前,她是乔治城大学的教授,也曾是美国驻世界银行的代表。 美联储在一份声明中表示,库格勒将在其任期结束前离职,任期原定于2026年1月31日结束。离开 美联储后,库格勒将于今年秋天回到乔治城大学担任教授。 美联储有关库格勒离任的声明(来源:美联储官网) 库格勒因个人原因没有参加本周的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议,引发了外界关注。 库格勒在辞职信中没有提供辞职的理由。"我很自豪能够以正直的态度、对服务公众的坚定承诺 ...
美联储理事库格勒宣布辞职,特朗普再获提名空缺
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-02 01:18
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced that Governor Adriana Kugler will resign early, effective August 8, creating a significant vacancy amid President Trump's push for lower interest rates [1][2] - Kugler was appointed by former President Biden in September 2023 and was the first Hispanic member of the Federal Reserve Board, previously serving as a professor at Georgetown University and a representative to the World Bank [1] - Kugler's resignation may disrupt the timeline for the succession process of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May next year, with Trump threatening to dismiss Powell [2] Group 2 - During the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, there was notable dissent within the Fed, with Governors Waller and Bowman voting against the decision to maintain interest rates, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [2][3] - The last time there were dissenting votes from Board members was in September of the previous year, indicating that such occurrences are relatively rare [2] - Recent labor market data showed a significant drop in job growth, with July's non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, well below the expected 115,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [3]