据中国贸易救济信息网，7月18日，印度财政部税收局发布通报称，接受印度商工部于2025年4月22日对 原产于或进口自中国的苯胺作出的第一次反倾销日落复审肯定性终裁建议，决定继续对中国的涉案产品 征收为期5年的反倾销税，具体如下：涉案生产商万华化学集团股份有限公司为36.90美元/吨，其他中 国生产商为121.79美元/吨。本案涉及印度海关编码292141项下的产品。措施自本通报发布于官方公报 之日起生效。 2022年12月12日，印度商工部发布公告称，应印度进口商NOCIL Limited提交的申请，对原产于或进口 自中国的苯胺启动反倾销期中复审调查，审查形势变化下是否有必要撤销或修改现行的反倾销措施。 2023年12月11日，印度商工部对该案作出肯定性终裁，裁定维持2021年1月20日原审终裁确定的反倾销 措施不变。 2024年9月24日，印度商工部发布公告称，应印度国内企业Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited提交的申请，对原产于或进口自中国的苯胺发起第一次反倾销日落复审调查。2025年 4月22日，印度商工部对该案作出肯定性终裁。 2 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce has determined that Chinese imports of graphite are subject to unfair subsidies, imposing a preliminary anti-dumping duty of 93.5% on Chinese anode-grade graphite [1] - Graphite is a critical material for electric vehicle batteries, indicating potential implications for the EV industry [1] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry emphasized the importance of mutual benefit in U.S.-China economic cooperation and urged adherence to market economy rules for stable development of bilateral trade relations [1]

Trade & Tariffs - The U S Department of Commerce will preliminarily impose a 935% anti-dumping duty on imports of Anode-grade graphite from China [1] - The U S Department of Commerce determined that the price of Chinese Anode-grade graphite sold in the U S is lower than its fair market value [1] - U S manufacturers of active anode materials point out that the new anti-dumping duties will be added on top of existing tariffs, bringing the actual tariff rate to 160% [1]

Trade & Tariff - US Department of Commerce to impose preliminary anti-dumping duty of 935% on Anode-grade Graphite imported from China [1] - US Department of Commerce determined that Chinese Anode-grade Graphite was sold in the US at less than fair market value [1]

Industry Trends - Concerns raised about the rush to develop AI and new energy vehicles in China [1] - The US has imposed high anti-dumping duties on Chinese graphite [1] Economic Indicators - US retail sales exceeded expectations last month [1]

Group 1 - The South Korean Ministry of Strategy and Finance announced the imposition of anti-dumping duties on cold-rolled stainless steel sheets and coils originating from Vietnam, with specific rates for different companies [1] - Yongjin Metal Technology (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. faces an anti-dumping duty rate of 18.81%, while TVL Joint Stock Company and others are subject to a rate of 11.37% [1] - The anti-dumping measures are effective for five years from the date of announcement [1] Group 2 - The investigation into the anti-dumping case began on May 30, 2024, and temporary duties were initially set between 3.66% and 11.37% [2] - The temporary anti-dumping duties were extended from four months to seven months, ending on July 18, 2025 [2] - The Korea Trade Commission made a positive final ruling on April 24, 2025, recommending a five-year anti-dumping duty on the products in question [2]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance issued a notice to guide long - term and stable investment of insurance funds and strengthen long - cycle assessment of state - owned commercial insurance companies, which helps improve the enthusiasm of insurance funds to invest in the A - share market [2] - In the second quarter, high - frequency data in multiple fields improved, with offline consumption heat index up 25.5%, offline service consumption index up 33.4%, and key project investment index up 25.7% [2] - The China Coking Industry Association decided to raise coke prices by 50 yuan per ton from July 15, with first - tier metallurgical coke up 50 yuan/ton, second - tier up 40 yuan/ton, and third - tier up 30 yuan/ton [2] - Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade imposed anti - dumping duties ranging from 23.10% to 27.83% on hot - rolled coils of steel originating from China, effective from July 6 [2] Group 2 - Key sectors to focus on: urea, crude oil, PVC [4] - Night - time performance of commodity futures: non - metallic building materials up 2.85%, precious metals up 27.66%, oilseeds up 12.45%, coal, coke, steel and ore up 14.57%, energy up 3.06%, chemicals up 12.72%, grains up 1.23%, agricultural and sideline products up 2.86%, non - ferrous metals up 19.64%, soft commodities up 2.95% [4][5] Group 3 - Performance of major asset classes: The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.01%, a monthly increase of 1.91%, and an annual increase of 4.73%; the SSE 50 decreased by 0.01%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.12%, and the CSI 500 increased by 0.74% [7] - In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures decreased by 0.02%, the 5 - year decreased by 0.01%, and the 2 - year decreased by 0.00% [7] - In the commodity category, the CRB Commodity Index increased by 1.05%, WTI crude oil increased by 3.15%, London spot gold increased by 0.95%, and LME copper decreased by 0.39% [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it will fluctuate strongly [2][4]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The sector sentiment remains strong, and they will have wide - range fluctuations [2][7][8]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon**: They will have wide - range fluctuations [2][13]. - **Coke**: A round of price increase has started, and it will fluctuate strongly [2][18]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by news, it will fluctuate strongly [2][18]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and it will stabilize with fluctuations [2][21]. - **Log**: The main contract is switching, and it will have wide - range fluctuations [2][24]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures closed at 764.0 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan/ton (0.07%). The positions increased by 1,947 hands. Among spot prices, the price of Carajás fines (65%) rose 4.0 yuan/ton to 845.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In June 2025, the national consumer price index rose 0.1% year - on - year [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Rebar RB2510 closed at 3,133 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (1.10%); Hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,273 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (1.24%). Spot prices in various regions generally increased [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Steel production and inventory data in late June 2025 were released. Vietnam announced anti - dumping duties on Chinese steel, excluding coil products wider than 1.88m [9][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [12]. Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon - **Fundamentals**: Silicon ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5,460 yuan/ton, down 116 yuan/ton; Manganese ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5,746 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton. Spot prices of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon in some regions increased [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Ghana plans to build a manganese refinery, and there are price changes in silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon in the market [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Coking coal JM2509 closed at 913 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (1.78%); Coke J2509 closed at 1,519.5 yuan/ton, up 22.5 yuan/ton (1.50%). Spot prices of some coking coal and coke remained stable [18]. - **Price and Position**: There are price quotes for coking coal in northern ports, and position changes in the top 20 members of DCE [18][20]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for coke, 1 for coking coal [20]. Steam Coal - **Previous Day's Performance**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840.0 yuan/ton, and it closed at 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton [21]. - **Fundamentals**: There are price quotes for steam coal in southern ports and domestic origins, and no position changes in the top 20 members of ZCE [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [23]. Log - **Fundamentals**: The 2509 contract closed at 786 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. There are price and position data for different contracts, and price quotes for various log products in the spot market [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US president extended the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [26].

Group 1 - The EU is facing significant challenges from the combined pressures of the US, China, and Russia, with France expressing concerns about being bullied by these powers [1][4] - The US has set a deadline of July 9 for tariff negotiations, with the Treasury Secretary threatening to impose tariffs on countries that do not reach an agreement, specifically mentioning the EU [1][4] - China has announced countermeasures against the EU, including anti-dumping duties on imported brandy and stainless steel billets, as well as restrictions on medical device imports [4][6] Group 2 - France's Finance Minister has criticized the situation, likening the global landscape to a game where the EU is being bullied by the US, Russia, and China, and has called for stronger tariff barriers [4][8] - The EU's actions against Chinese companies, such as imposing taxes on Chinese electric vehicles, have been cited as provocations that led to China's retaliatory measures [8][11] - The EU's reliance on the US for security, particularly in the context of the Ukraine conflict, has complicated its relationship with Russia and contributed to its current predicament [11][12]

2025年07月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：板块情绪共振，偏强震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：板块情绪共振，偏强震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：成本预期或有抬升，偏强震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：成本预期或有抬升，偏强震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：震荡偏强 | 7 | | 焦煤：消息扰动，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 动力煤：日耗修复，震荡企稳 | 9 | | 原木：主力切换，宽幅震荡 | 10 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 11 日 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12509 | | 763. 5 | 27.0 | ...