Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Macro factors include China's September LPR remaining unchanged, potential bank deposit - rate cuts in Q4, and various overseas trade policies such as US tariff hikes and South Korea's anti - dumping duties. Supply has been rising since mid - May, inventory has increased significantly, and costs and demand have changed. Technically, the manganese silicon main contract's weekly K - line is bearish. The market is expected to be weak after the holiday, and it is recommended to reduce or empty positions [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Macro**: China's September LPR: 5 - year above at 3.5%, 1 - year at 3%. Guangdong prepared for Typhoon "Hua Jiasha". More banks may cut deposit rates in Q4. Overseas, the US will impose high tariffs on certain products from October 1, and South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on steel products [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Production has been rising since mid - May, inventory increased significantly. Imported manganese ore port inventory decreased by 25.3 tons, and hot metal production returned to previous levels. Inner Mongolia's spot profit is - 80 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is - 190 yuan/ton. HeSteel Group's September silicon - manganese price is 6000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton [6]. - **Technical**: The manganese silicon main contract's weekly K - line is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy**: Before the holiday, funds reduced positions, market sentiment declined, and the sector was weak. After the holiday, prices are expected to be weak. It is recommended to reduce or empty positions [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 26, the silicon - manganese futures contract's open interest decreased by 50,300 lots to 501,000 lots, and the 5 - 1 contract spread increased by 8 points to 46. Manganese silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 4,563 to 56,113, and the manganese silicon - ferrosilicon January contract spread decreased by 8 points to 220 [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 26, Inner Mongolia's silicon - manganese spot price was 5,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 138 yuan/ton, up 56 points [23]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Industry**: Manganese silicon inventory increased rapidly, and production declined from its peak. The national 187 - enterprise sample's capacity utilization was 44.18%, down 1.50%. Daily production was 29,490 tons, down 335 tons. Five major steel products' silicon - manganese weekly demand was 122,484 tons, up 0.87%, and national production was 206,430 tons, down 1.12% [25]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, the national 63 - enterprise sample's inventory was 233,800 tons, up 34,900 tons. Inner Mongolia decreased by 1,500 tons, Ningxia increased by 30,600 tons, etc. [30]. - **Upstream**: As of September 26, Tianjin Port's South32 South African semi - carbonate lump was 34.3 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.2. Ningxia and Inner Mongolia's electricity prices were flat. Imported manganese ore port inventory decreased by 25.3 tons to 427.2 tons. South African manganese ore arrivals decreased by 25%, while Australian, Gabonese, and Ghanaian arrivals increased [34][40]. - **Profit**: On September 26, the northern region's spot production cost was 5,830 yuan/ton, up 20, and the profit was - 140 yuan/ton, down 50. The southern region's cost was 6,230 yuan/ton, up 20, and the profit was - 530 yuan/ton, down 40 [44]. - **Downstream**: Daily hot metal production was 2.4236 million tons, up 13,400 tons week - on - week and 175,000 tons year - on - year. HeSteel Group's September silicon - manganese price was 6,000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 24, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract oscillated, rose in the afternoon and then fell back, closing at 803.5 yuan/ton with a 0.00% increase. Considering the steel mill's resumption rhythm and restocking demand before the National Day holiday, it is expected that the iron ore price may fluctuate strongly in the near future [7][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - **Market Review**: On September 24, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract oscillated, rose in the afternoon and then fell back, closing at 803.5 yuan/ton with a 0.00% increase. The spot market showed that on September 24, the main iron ore outer - market quotes were flat compared to the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port were mostly flat compared to the previous day. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to decline, and the daily MACD indicator formed a death cross [7][9] - **Future Outlook**: Recently, the shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, while the arrivals increased. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil in the past four weeks increased by 3.56% compared to the previous four weeks. Considering the shipping time, the future arrivals are expected to further recover, showing a pattern of being low first and then high. On the demand side, last week, the molten iron output, blast furnace start - up rate, and blast furnace capacity utilization rate rebounded again, with obvious demand recovery after the September 3rd restrictions. However, the continuous decline in the profitability of downstream steel enterprises will limit the growth space of demand. In terms of inventory, as the National Day holiday in October approaches, steel mills have started the restocking process, which will support the iron ore demand before the holiday [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - **Anti - Dumping News**: On September 23, South Korea decided to impose temporary anti - dumping duties on carbon steel and alloy steel hot - rolled coils from China and Japan. From September 19, India decided to impose a 5 - year anti - dumping duty on cold - rolled non - oriented electrical steel from China [12] - **Policy News**: Six ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Building Materials Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming to make the building materials industry recover and improve profitability from 2025 - 2026, and increase the scale of green building materials and advanced inorganic non - metallic materials industries. The green building materials' operating income is expected to exceed 30 billion yuan in 2026. Five key tasks are deployed, including strengthening industry management, enhancing industrial technological innovation, expanding effective investment, expanding consumer demand, and deepening opening - up and cooperation [12][13] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot and January contract at Qingdao Port, the shipments from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines, the trading volume at main ports, the inventory available days of steel mills' iron ore, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the inventory and dispatch volume of port iron ore, the cost of molten iron in sample steel mills, the start - up rate and capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces and electric furnaces, the daily average molten iron output nationwide, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the inventory of five major steel products in steel mills [15][20][24]

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission has imposed significant anti-dumping duties on glyoxylic acid products originating from China, which may impact the company's export dynamics to the EU market, although the overall revenue from these exports is relatively low. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Duties - The final ruling from the European Commission on September 22, 2025, imposed a 57.30% anti-dumping tax on glyoxylic acid produced by Xinjiang Guolin, while other Chinese companies face duties ranging from 29.20% to 124.90% [1] - The anti-dumping measures will take effect from the date of the final ruling and will last for five years [1] Group 2: Impact on Revenue - In 2024 and the first half of 2025, the revenue from glyoxylic acid exports to the EU accounted for a small percentage of the company's total revenue, specifically 3.50% and 1.27% respectively [1] - Overall, the low proportion of revenue from EU exports suggests that the anti-dumping duties will not have a significant impact on the company's future operations [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Strategy - The imposition of high anti-dumping duties has reduced the price competitiveness of the company's glyoxylic acid, leading some customers to stop importing the products [2] - Despite the challenges, some customers are willing to continue purchasing the products despite the higher tariffs, indicating a mixed response in the market [2] - The company plans to enhance product research and development, reduce costs, and explore markets outside the EU to mitigate the impact of the duties and expand its market share [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission announced the final ruling on anti-dumping investigations against acetic acid products originating from China, imposing a 57.3% anti-dumping tax on the acetic acid produced by the company's wholly-owned subsidiary, Xinjiang Guolin, while other Chinese companies face taxes ranging from 29.2% to 124.9% [1] Company Summary - The anti-dumping measures will take effect from the date of the European Union's final ruling announcement and will last for five years [1] - In 2024 and the first half of 2025, the revenue from the company's acetic acid exports to the EU will account for a small proportion of total revenue, specifically 3.5% and 1.27% respectively [1] - Overall, the low proportion of revenue from acetic acid exports to the EU indicates that the imposition of anti-dumping taxes will not have a significant impact on the company's future production and operations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission has imposed significant anti-dumping duties on acetic acid products originating from China, which will affect the pricing competitiveness of the company's exports to the EU market [1][2]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Duties - The final ruling on the anti-dumping investigation resulted in a 57.30% duty on acetic acid produced by Xinjiang Guolin, while other Chinese companies face duties ranging from 29.20% to 124.90% [1]. - The anti-dumping measures will be effective for five years from the date of the announcement [1]. Group 2: Impact on Business Operations - In 2024 and the first half of 2025, the revenue from acetic acid exports to the EU accounted for a small percentage of the company's total revenue, specifically 3.50% and 1.27% respectively [1]. - The imposition of high anti-dumping duties has led to a decrease in the price competitiveness of the company's acetic acid, resulting in some customers ceasing imports due to the burden of the duties [2]. - Despite some customers opting to continue purchasing, there is an expectation that demand may be suppressed due to the anti-dumping duties, which could exert pressure on the company's sales in the EU market [2]. Group 3: Strategic Response - The company plans to enhance product research and development, reduce costs, and expand sales in markets outside the EU to mitigate the impact of the duties [2]. - The company will closely monitor policy and tariff changes in key export countries to improve its risk resilience [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Short - term, the gold price is bullish due to the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts and concerns about its independence. The weak employment data in the US in August strengthens the easing expectation. In the long - term, the continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the de - dollarization trend, and geopolitical risks boost the currency attribute and safe - haven demand of gold. The precipitation funds in SHFE gold futures have exceeded 100 billion yuan, indicating strong market enthusiasm [3]. - **Copper**: In the short term, with a tight supply, the copper price faces obvious pressure at 79,000 yuan per ton, and the 20 - day moving average may provide support, with the price expected to stand firm at 80,000 yuan per ton [18]. - **Aluminum**: Macroeconomic factors such as the weak US non - farm payrolls in August, the almost certain Fed rate cut in September, and the improvement of domestic policies are positive for the aluminum price. Fundamentally, the increase in the aluminum - water ratio and the recovery of downstream demand in the peak season support the price. However, the late de - stocking node restricts the upward range of the aluminum price in the short term, and the SHFE aluminum is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [37]. - **Zinc**: The supply side is in an oversupply state. The domestic zinc ore has a price advantage, and the overseas zinc ore supply is abundant. The demand for the "Golden September and Silver October" is generally expected, and the zinc price is expected to be volatile in the short term [68]. - **Nickel**: The production and shipment of nickel ore are stable, and the inventory at domestic ports is high. The new energy sector still provides support, and the supply is relatively tight. The price of nickel iron is also strong, and the stainless - steel market is in a volatile state. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US dollar index, rate - cut expectations, and the difficulty of stainless - steel exports [84]. - **Tin**: In the short term, the factors affecting the tin price are not obvious, and the technical level can be used for judgment. The price of 270,000 yuan per ton has certain support [99]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Although there is an optimistic short - term expectation for the resumption of production of the Jianxiaowo lithium mine, the peak - season demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" still provides effective support for the lithium carbonate price. The resumption of production cannot cover the current peak - season demand, and the supply - side disturbance does not change the fundamental support logic [111]. - **Silicon**: In the short term, the Inner Mongolia meeting has a positive impact on sentiment. In the long term, the industry faces structural pressure. The polysilicon market is affected by rumors and policy expectations, with high uncertainty in price trends. Investors are advised to be cautious [120]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Market Sentiment**: The US CPI in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the initial jobless claims soared to 263,000, which strengthened the easing expectation. The precipitation funds in SHFE gold futures exceeded 100 billion yuan, with an increase of more than 17 billion yuan in a month [3]. Copper - **Price Forecast**: In the short term, the copper price has pressure at 79,000 yuan per ton and may be supported by the 20 - day moving average, with the expectation of reaching 80,000 yuan per ton [18]. - **Market Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaotrade, Guangdong Southern Reserve, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 80,755 yuan/ton, 80,990 yuan/ton, 80,930 yuan/ton, and 81,080 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.72%, 1.06%, 1.01%, and 1.01% [22]. Aluminum - **Macroeconomic Impact**: The weak US non - farm payrolls in August, the almost certain Fed rate cut in September, and the improvement of domestic policies are positive for the aluminum price [37]. - **Fundamental Situation**: The aluminum - water ratio has increased, and the downstream demand in the peak season is recovering, mainly in the industrial profile sector led by photovoltaics. The possible termination of the tax - refund policy for some recycled aluminum enterprises may reduce the supply of recycled aluminum and support the consumption of primary aluminum [37]. Zinc - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side is in an oversupply state, with abundant overseas zinc ore supply and high zinc ore imports. The demand for the "Golden September and Silver October" is generally expected, and the zinc price is expected to be volatile in the short term [68]. Nickel - **Industry Situation**: The production and shipment of nickel ore are stable, and the inventory at domestic ports is high. The new energy sector still provides support, and the supply is relatively tight. The price of nickel iron is strong, and the stainless - steel market is volatile [84]. Tin - **Price Judgment**: In the short term, the technical level can be used to judge the tin price, and the price of 270,000 yuan per ton has certain support [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Logic**: The peak - season demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" provides effective support for the lithium carbonate price. The resumption of production of the Jianxiaowo lithium mine cannot cover the current peak - season demand, and the supply - side disturbance does not change the fundamental support logic [111]. Silicon - **Industry Outlook**: In the short term, the Inner Mongolia meeting has a positive impact on sentiment. In the long term, the industry faces structural pressure, and the polysilicon market is affected by rumors and policy expectations, with high uncertainty [120].

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean government's decision to impose a temporary anti-dumping tax of 43.35% on Chinese single-mode optical fibers starting from October 19 has sparked significant controversy and may ultimately harm its own market competitiveness [1][2][3] Group 1: Impact on Chinese Fiber Optic Companies - Chinese fiber optic companies such as Hengtong, Yangtze Optical, and JinXingTong will face a 43.35% temporary anti-dumping tax for four months, which is expected to disrupt their operations in the South Korean market [1] - Chinese optical fibers hold over 55% of the global market share, while South Korean domestic production accounts for less than 30%, indicating a significant competitive advantage for Chinese firms [1] Group 2: Reactions from South Korean Operators - South Korean operators are caught between rising costs due to the tax and consumer demand, leading to potential price increases for consumers or disruptions in service [2] - The pressure from the tax is likely to be passed on to consumers, resulting in higher network expenses for the general public [2] Group 3: Global Market Dynamics - The global market has evolved beyond simple tariffs, with Chinese manufacturing capabilities now encompassing advanced technology and supply chains, making it difficult for South Korea to maintain its competitive edge through tariffs alone [3] - The rapid expansion of Chinese companies into markets like Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia means that they can quickly adapt and potentially undercut prices, undermining the intended protective measures [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - Changfei Fiber (601869.SH) saw its stock price rise over 6% to 97 yuan, reaching a historical high due to the Ministry of Commerce's ruling on anti-dumping measures against U.S. imports of specific optical fibers [1] Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The Ministry of Commerce announced a ruling regarding the anti-circumvention investigation of imported wavelength-shifting single-mode optical fibers from the U.S. [1] - The ruling determined that U.S. fiber manufacturers and exporters altered trade practices to export related wavelength-shifting single-mode optical fibers (G.654.C fibers) to China, undermining existing anti-dumping measures [1] - The Ministry proposed adjustments to the tax scope to the State Council Tariff Commission, which decided to apply the current anti-dumping tax rates on non-dispersive wavelength-shifting single-mode optical fibers from the U.S. starting September 4, 2025 [1] Group 2: Anti-Dumping Tax Rates - The anti-dumping tax rates for various companies are as follows: Corning Incorporated at 37.9%, OFS Fitel, LLC at 33.3%, Draka Communications Americas, Inc. at 78.2%, and other U.S. companies at 78.2% [1]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a high opening followed by a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3813.56 points, down 1.16% [1][9] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12472 points, down 0.65%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.95% [1][9] - Among 30 sectors, 28 saw declines, with the defense, comprehensive finance, and non-bank financial sectors leading the losses; only telecommunications, electric equipment, and new energy sectors gained [1][9] - The total trading volume of the A-share market was 23957 billion, showing a decrease compared to the previous day [1][9] Overseas Market Overview - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.05%, the S&P 500 up 0.51%, and the Nasdaq up 1.02% [2] - Notably, Google shares surged over 9%, reaching a record high, while Apple rose more than 3% [2] Key Drivers - A joint meeting between the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China discussed financial market operations and government bond issuance management, aiming to ensure the smooth implementation of fiscal and monetary policies [10] - In the A-share market, 823 stocks rose while 4560 fell, indicating a significant adjustment with some risk being released [10] Economic Data - In August, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.079 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5% and a month-on-month increase of 9%, with a market penetration rate of 55.3% [20] - The US job openings fell to 7.181 million in July, marking a 10-month low, which was below expectations [21]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce has ruled that U.S. fiber optic manufacturers and exporters are circumventing anti-dumping measures by altering trade patterns, which undermines the effectiveness of existing anti-dumping measures on non-dispersion shifted single-mode fiber optics from the U.S. [1] Summary by Sections - The Ministry of Commerce has proposed adjustments to the tax scope to the State Council Tariff Commission, which has decided to apply the current anti-dumping tax rates on non-dispersion shifted single-mode fiber optics to the related cutoff wavelength shifted single-mode fiber optics imported from the U.S. starting from September 4, 2025 [1] - The anti-dumping tax rates imposed on various companies are as follows: Corning Incorporated at 37.9%, OFS Fitel, LLC at 33.3%, Draka Communications Americas, Inc. at 78.2%, and other U.S. companies at 78.2% [1]