| 品种 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 近期去产能反内卷政策带动市场情绪转强，预期有所改善。目前铁水产量 | | | | 仍然较高，螺纹产量继续上升，钢材整体出口需求仍然较好。国内需求进 | | | 螺纹钢 区间运行 | 入淡季，长期偏弱状态并未转变，基差修复背景下行情或区间运行。【3050， | | | | 3090】 | | | | 越南对中国热卷出口反倾销税终裁落地。国内热卷产量小幅上升，表观需 | | | 热卷 区间运行 | 求环比略降，库存变化不大。供需总体相对平衡，基本面变化不大，前期 | | | | 上行主要受市场情绪改善推动，短期表现或进入区间运行。【3170，3210】 | | | | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转降，预计后期铁水缓慢下行。供给端发货冲 | | | 铁矿石 区间参与 | 量结束，到货仍有增量。港口累库，钢厂刚需补库，整体供需结构中性。 | | | | 反内卷再提，对黑色行业影响有限，短期主要体现为情绪性交易。观点： 短期区间参与，中期布局空单。【720,750】 | | | | 独立焦企产量近期有所回落，但钢厂焦企产量 ...

Group 1 - The EU-China summit is facing changes, with reports indicating that part of the agenda will be canceled, raising concerns about the potential for meaningful discussions [1][3] - The planned high-level economic dialogue between China and the EU was also canceled, with the European side citing a lack of progress in resolving trade disputes as the reason [3][5] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced anti-dumping duties on EU-imported brandy, with a maximum rate of 34.9% for five years, indicating a response to perceived unfair trade practices [5][10] Group 2 - Despite the challenges, there are still opportunities for cooperation between China and the EU, as both sides face similar issues, such as U.S. tariffs [7][8] - China's decision to impose anti-dumping duties is based on an investigation and is seen as a formal procedure, while also providing European companies an opportunity to correct their pricing practices [8][10]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 8, the JM2509 contract closed at 843.5, up 0.84%. In the spot market, the price of Meng 5 raw coal rose by 6 yuan/ton. The overall capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines decreased, the clean coal inventory started to be destocked, and the cumulative import growth rate declined. The overall coal supply gradually recovered. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line was above the 20 and 60 moving averages. It is recommended to treat it with a bullish - biased sideways approach [2]. - On July 8, the J2509 contract closed at 1424.5, up 0.14%. In the spot market, the fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented. The supply of raw materials gradually improved, and the hot metal output remained at a high level. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 52 yuan/ton this period. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line was above the 20 and 60 moving averages. It is recommended to treat it with a bullish - biased sideways approach [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price was 843.50 yuan/ton, up 8.50 yuan; J main contract closing price was 1424.50 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract open interest was 778,353.00 lots, up 2,875.00 lots; J futures contract open interest was 56,385.00 lots, up 93.00 lots [2]. - Net open interest of the top 20 JM contracts was - 67,007.00 lots, up 10,788.00 lots; net open interest of the top 20 J contracts was - 3,751.00 lots, up 228.00 lots [2]. - The spread between JM1 - 9 contracts was 47.50 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan; the spread between J1 - 9 contracts was 46.00 yuan/ton, up 0.50 yuan [2]. - The number of JM warehouse receipts was 200.00, unchanged; the number of J warehouse receipts was 90.00, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Meng 5 raw coal at Ganqimao Port was 745.00 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1390.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 115.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Australian prime coking coal imported at Jingtang Port was 1240.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke was 1320.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1340.00 yuan/ton; the price of Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 930.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of J main contract was - 34.50 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 940.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of JM main contract was 86.50 yuan/ton, down 8.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants was 3.1217 million tons, down 91,100 tons; the clean coal inventory was 2.1498 million tons, down 168,900 tons [2]. - The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 59.72%, up 0.62 percentage points; the raw coal output was 40.3284 million tons, up 1.3978 million tons [2]. - The import volume of coal and lignite was 36.04 million tons, down 1.79 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 188,000 tons, up 3,000 tons [2]. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 5.2471 million tons, up 295,900 tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 2.4202 million tons, down 98,700 tons [2]. - The total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 8.4818 million tons, up 392,000 tons; the inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 1.021 million tons, down 109,300 tons [2]. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.896 million tons, up 83,900 tons; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.3749 million tons, up 97,400 tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises was 12.51 days, up 0.12 days; the available days of coke for 247 steel mills was 11.52 days, up 0.30 days [2]. - The import volume of coking coal was 7.3869 million tons, down 1.5065 million tons; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 680,000 tons, up 130,000 tons [2]. - The output of coking coal was 40.7027 million tons, up 1.4411 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.17%, down 0.40 percentage points [2]. - The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 46.00 yuan/ton, down 23.00 yuan; the output of coke was 42.376 million tons, up 776,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.44%, down 0.40 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.27%, down 0.58 percentage points [2]. - The crude steel output was 86.545 million tons, up 526,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - On July 7, US President Trump signed an executive order to extend the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period from July 9 to August 1 [2]. - As of July 7, Trump had issued new tariff rate threats to 14 countries, with Japan, South Korea, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, and Tunisia facing a 25% tariff rate [2]. - On July 6, Vietnam's anti - dumping duty on Chinese hot - rolled coils came into effect. From January to May 2025, China's exports of the涉案 hot - rolled coils to Vietnam decreased by 43.6% year - on - year to 2.307 million tons [2]. - As of the end of June, China's gold reserves were 73.9 million ounces (about 2,298.55 tons), up 70,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) month - on - month, marking the eighth consecutive month of increase [2]. - US Secretary of State Rubio will visit Malaysia from July 8 to 12 to attend the ASEAN meeting, which will be his first visit to the Indo - Pacific region as the top US diplomat [2].

Group 1: Management Changes in the Alcohol Industry - The alcohol industry has seen a series of high-level management changes since last year, with companies like Yanghe, China Resources Beer, and Jinzhongzi Wine experiencing shifts in leadership, indicating a strong intent from shareholders and investors to boost performance [1] - Jinzhongzi Wine's General Manager He Xiuxia has resigned, and the company is facing significant market share pressure, with 2024 revenue projected to drop to 925 million yuan, a stark contrast to over 2 billion yuan in previous cycles [5] - Yanghe has appointed Gu Yu as the new Party Secretary, replacing Zhang Liandong, who has stepped down amid a challenging period for the white liquor industry [6][7] Group 2: Trade and Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Commerce has concluded an anti-dumping investigation into EU brandy, determining that dumping margins range from 27.7% to 34.9%, leading to the imposition of anti-dumping duties starting July 5, 2025 [2][3] - A total of 34 EU brandy exporters, including well-known brands like Martell and Hennessy, can avoid these duties by adhering to price commitments approved by Chinese authorities [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Promotions - Taobao Flash Sale has initiated a new subsidy program, investing 50 billion yuan, resulting in a significant increase in orders, particularly in the alcohol sector, with some brands seeing order volumes double [4] - Kuaizi Jiao reported that its high-end "Jian" series products have not performed as expected, with sales and consumer feedback being less favorable compared to older products [10] - Xijiu has launched a promotional campaign offering buy-three-get-one-free deals on various products, indicating a strategy to boost sales through consumer incentives [11]

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has announced a maximum anti-dumping tax of 34.9% on imported brandy from the EU, effective from July 5, lasting for five years, indicating a shift from discussion to action regarding the investigation [1] - The decision comes in response to the EU's demands during recent diplomatic meetings, which included requests for China to stop military support to Russia, lift rare earth export restrictions, and pressure Iran to sign a nuclear agreement [3] - The policy will significantly impact French brandy producers, particularly those in the Cognac sector, as China is their second-largest market, accounting for 25% of global sales, potentially leading to a severe decline in orders and job losses across the supply chain [5] Group 2 - China has shown willingness to cooperate but may link the brandy issue with electric vehicle discussions if the EU continues to ignore China's interests, indicating a potential for reciprocal measures [7] - The implementation of the anti-dumping tax is expected to have far-reaching effects, with mixed reactions in the market, highlighting the complexities of international trade relations [8]

Core Points - China has decided to impose anti-dumping duties on 30 countries, with the highest rate reaching 103.1%, aimed at protecting its domestic industries from harm, with a duration of five years [1][3] - The countries affected include the 27 EU nations, the UK, South Korea, and Indonesia, primarily due to dumping practices related to stainless steel products [3][4] - The highest anti-dumping duty is on South Korea at 103.1%, while the EU and UK face a rate of 43%, and Indonesia has the lowest at 20.2% [3][5] Summary by Sections Anti-Dumping Duties - China will start imposing anti-dumping duties on July 1, 2025, for a period of five years against 30 countries due to dumping of stainless steel products [3] - South Korea faces the highest duty at 103.1%, with POSCO being an exception at 23.1% due to its compliance efforts [3] - The EU and UK will incur a duty of 43%, while Indonesia's duty is set at 20.2% [3] Trade Protectionism - The article highlights the hypocrisy of Western nations, particularly the EU, which have initiated trade protectionism under the guise of protecting local industries without substantial evidence [4] - China has stated that affected countries can appeal the decision, indicating a willingness to reconsider if presented with sufficient justification [4] EU and US Relations - The EU is under pressure regarding its reliance on China for rare earth materials, and despite its demands, China has not fully acquiesced [7] - The EU has shown signs of compromise with the US regarding tariffs, indicating a willingness to accept a 10% general tariff in exchange for exemptions in key sectors [9] - The article suggests that the EU's dependence on the US market makes it difficult for them to confront the US directly [9] Impact on US Market - The article discusses the unintended consequences of Trump's tariff policies, which were intended to boost US manufacturing but have led to increased costs for American consumers [11] - The rising costs have prompted US buyers to seek ways to circumvent tariffs, highlighting the challenges of finding alternatives to Chinese manufacturing [11] - The overall sentiment is that engaging with China requires sincerity from both the EU and the US, as China's retaliatory measures are seen as a response to excessive pressure [11]

Trade Relations - Sino-European electric vehicle negotiations are nearing completion, pending EU's political will [1] - China's Ministry of Commerce will impose anti-dumping duties on brandy imported from the EU starting July 5, 2025, for a 5-year period [2] - The investigation determined that EU brandy was being dumped, threatening the domestic brandy industry, and a causal relationship exists between dumping and the threat of material damage [2]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce has made a final ruling on anti-dumping investigations against imported brandy from the EU, confirming that dumping exists and poses a threat to the domestic industry, with dumping margins ranging from 27.7% to 34.9% [2] - Starting from July 5, 2025, anti-dumping duties will be imposed on imported brandy from the EU, but exporters who submit price commitments that comply with Chinese laws may be exempt from these duties [2][3] - A total of 34 EU brandy exporters, including well-known brands like Martell, Hennessy, and Rémy Martin, have submitted price commitments, which, if adhered to, will allow them to avoid anti-dumping taxes [3] Group 2 - The price commitment mechanism allows exporters to voluntarily raise export prices or cease dumping practices, providing a buffer for international trade while protecting domestic industry interests [3] - Market reactions have been positive, with industry insiders indicating that the news could stabilize the cognac import market and reduce uncertainty regarding future price trends [3] - The Ministry of Commerce emphasizes its commitment to resolving trade disputes through dialogue and negotiation, hoping to strengthen communication with the EU to address economic and trade differences [3]

【发布单位】贸易救济局 【发布文号】商务部公告2025年第34号 【发文日期】2025年07月04日 定了。 7月4日，商务部发布年度第34号公告，公布对原产于欧盟的进口相关白兰地反倾销调查的最终裁定，裁定原产于欧盟的进口相关白兰地存在倾销，国内相关 白兰地产业受到实质损害威胁，而且倾销与实质损害威胁之间存在因果关系。最终裁定中认定的倾销幅度为27.7%—34.9%。此外，商务部经依法审查，接受 了欧盟有关行业协会和企业提出的价格承诺，对符合承诺条件的相关进口产品不征收反倾销税。 根据《反倾销条例》第三十八条规定，商务部向国务院关税税则委员会提出征收反倾销税的建议，国务院关税税则委员会根据商务部的建议作出决定，自 2025年7月5日起，对原产于欧盟的进口相关白兰地征收反倾销税。 应国内相关白兰地产业申请，商务部于2024年1月5日发布公告，决定对原产于欧盟的进口相关白兰地发起反倾销调查。立案后，商务部严格按照中国相关法 律法规和世贸组织相关规则进行调查，在初步调查基础上于2024年8月29日公布了该案肯定性初裁裁定，随后经过进一步调查，作出上述最终裁定。 该产品归在《中华人民共和国进出口税则》：2208200 ...

7月4日，商务部发布公告，公布对原产于欧盟的进口相关白兰地反倾销调查的最终裁定。 根据《反倾销条例》第三十八条规定，商务部向国务院关税税则委员会提出征收反倾销税的建议，国 务院关税税则委员会根据商务部的建议作出决定，自2025年7月5日起，对原产于欧盟的进口相关白 兰地征收反倾销税。征收反倾销税和价格承诺的实施期限自2025年7月5日起5年。 ...