Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market continued to rise last week, with the growth style leading. The core driver of the rise lies in the lack of negative disturbances, keeping the market risk appetite on the bullish side, and the structural market continued [1]. - In the short - term, A - share risk appetite is positive. Without significant negative factors, the stock index will show a volatile and strong pattern. In the medium - term, the economic outlook is moderately recovering, the confidence in the capital market is improving, and external geopolitical disturbances are not likely to cause a long - term negative trend, maintaining a bullish market pattern [1][2]. - Attention should be paid to the formulation and implementation of anti - involution and anti - deflation policies, as well as the expected Fed policies [3]. 3. Summary by Sections Market Review and Outlook - **Global Index Performance**: Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.07%, the S&P 500 rose 0.59%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.51%. In the European market, the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.57%, the German DAX rose 0.14%, and the French CAC40 fell 0.08%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.63%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 2.84% [8]. - **Domestic Index Performance**: All major domestic indices rose last week. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.69%. Since 2025, various major indices have also shown an upward trend [8]. - **Industry Performance**: In the spot market, most industries in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices rose last week. The communication, pharmaceutical, and automotive sectors were among the top gainers, while the media, real estate, and public utilities sectors were among the top losers [1][10]. - **Index Futures Performance**: Among the index futures main contracts last week, IM had the largest increase and the largest amplitude. The trading volume of index futures rebounded, while the open interest declined [12][15]. - **Index Valuation**: As of July 18, the P/E ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index was 15.38 times, that of the CSI 300 Index was 13.38 times, and that of the SSE 50 Index was 11.38 times [19]. - **Market Capital Flow**: The number of new investors in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are presented in the report. The capital interest rate price rebounded last week, and the central bank had a net injection [22]. Strategy Suggestions - **Short - term Strategy**: For intraday trading, refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set the stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [4]. - **Trend Strategy**: Adopt a bullish approach. The expected core operating ranges for the main contracts of IF2508, IH2508, IC2508, and IM2508 are 3932 - 4135 points, 2699 - 2824 points, 5872 - 6266 points, and 6263 - 6685 points respectively [4]. - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Cautiously participate in the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Currently, caustic soda is in the off - season for demand, with insufficient price increase momentum, but is strongly supported by costs due to the weak performance of liquid chlorine. There are still expectations for peak - season demand in the future, so it is advisable to participate in the 10 - 1 positive spread of the monthly difference [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 09 contract is 2484, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 840, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2625, and the basis is 141 [1] Spot News - Based on the Shandong region, the market price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable, with local areas holding steady and observing. High - concentration caustic soda has low inventory supported by previous orders, but high - price sales are poor after the price increase. The high - price sales of low - concentration caustic soda have slowed down, and the sales performance of each factory varies, with inventory increasing or decreasing [2] Market Condition Analysis - Macroeconomically, in the short term, the overall sentiment of domestic commodities is strong due to the anti - involution effect, while externally, attention should be paid to the risk that the trade war in August may exceed expectations. In the context of anti - inflation in the US and anti - deflation in China, caustic soda is currently in a volatile market [3] - From a fundamental perspective, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda in July decreased significantly compared to June, with maintenance mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China. The new production capacity of caustic soda from July to August may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure will gradually increase. However, manufacturers have over - sold in exports, and the pressure of new production capacity is basically digested by exports [3] - On the demand side, it is the off - season for non - aluminum demand, with weak support. The inventory of caustic soda in alumina is neutral, and the export direction has strong support, with a strong willingness to replenish inventory at low prices [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, with the range of trend intensity values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 indicates the most bearish and 2 indicates the most bullish [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for LLDPE is "Range-bound oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, due to the influence of anti - involution in China, the overall commodity sentiment is strong, but there is a risk that the trade war may exceed expectations in August. Under the background of anti - inflation in the US and anti - deflation in China, plastics are in a range - bound market for now. The fundamentals of polyethylene have not improved significantly, with increasing supply pressure and weak demand support, so the later trend pressure is still large [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of L2509 futures yesterday was 7215, with a daily change of 0.00%. The trading volume was 181,546 and the open interest decreased by 2617. The 09 - contract basis was - 135 (compared to - 114 the previous day), and the 09 - 01 contract spread was - 20 (compared to - 11 the previous day). The important spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7080, 7160, and 7250 yuan/ton respectively, showing a decline from the previous day [1] Spot News - This week, the domestic PE market prices oscillated and declined. The crude oil market maintained an oscillating trend, and the linear futures were generally weak. The downstream factory orders were limited, the enthusiasm for starting work was low, and the intention to purchase raw materials was weak. The sales of petrochemical and trading companies were blocked, and the overall trading volume was limited despite the price decline [1] Market Condition Analysis - Macroscopically, the short - term domestic commodity sentiment is strong due to anti - involution, while there is a risk of an unexpected trade war in August. The polyethylene fundamentals have not improved. The supply pressure is increasing as the maintenance volume in July will be less than that in June and the new production capacity in the third quarter is expected to be 1.6 million tons. The demand support is weak, and although the inventory was previously low year - on - year, it is gradually accumulating. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 77.79%, a decrease of 1.67% from the previous period, mainly due to more maintenance of existing devices [2] Demand - side Situation - The downstream of polyethylene is still in the off - season, with weak terminal orders and cautious enterprise inventory preparation. The shed film industry is in the traditional off - season, with only a slight increase in the operating rate in some areas. The procurement enthusiasm of agricultural film dealers is not high, and the raw material inventory level is lower than last year. Some food and daily - chemical packaging films have short - term rigid demand support, but the continuous replenishment is insufficient. The operating rates of PE hollow and pipes are lower than the same period last year [3][4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Glass: The medium - term outlook is a sideways market. In the short - term, spot transactions are stable, and policy proposals and peak - season expectations drive a rebound. However, factors such as Hubei's warehouse receipt pricing and high inventory limit the upside. The long - term bullish view is supported by policy expectations, low prices, long - term losses of manufacturers, and peak - season expectations for the 09 contract. The bearish view is based on the lack of substantial improvement in the real - estate market and high inventory pressure [6][7]. - Soda Ash: The trend is sideways with a downward bias. High glass inventory and large losses limit the price increase of soda ash. Although short - term valuation is low and there are some positive expectations, the market will face greater delivery pressure. The core factors are high production and high inventory, and it is difficult to expect a long - term shortage [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Glass 3.1.1 Supply - Side Situation - Cold - repaired production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 10,530 tons/day [11]. - Ignited production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 11,510 tons/day [12]. - Potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 14,600 tons/day [14]. - Potential复产 production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 8,130 tons/day, mainly concentrated in South and Southwest China [15]. - Potential cold - repair production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 6,900 tons/day [17]. - The current in - production capacity is about 157,000 tons/day. The peak capacity in 2021 was 178,000 tons/day, and the recent low was 148,000 - 150,000 tons/day. The production reduction space in the first half of the year is limited [19][21]. 3.1.2 Price and Profit - This week, transactions were stable, with most prices unchanged and some in Shahe rising by 10 yuan/ton. Shahe's price is around 1,130 - 1,180 yuan/ton, Hubei's is around 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton, and East China's is around 1,220 - 1,360 yuan/ton [27][31]. - Futures rebounded, the basis was weak, and the monthly spread was stable. The monthly spread was weak due to near - month warehouse receipt factors [33][35]. - Profits: Petroleum coke profit is around - 101 yuan/ton, and natural gas and coal fuel profits are around - 199 - 82 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - fired devices is 86 yuan/ton, natural - gas - fired devices is - 188 yuan/ton, and petroleum - coke - fired devices is - 85 yuan/ton [38][41]. 3.1.3 Inventory and Downstream开工 - Recent transactions were relatively stable, and inventory in most regions decreased slightly [44]. - Regional arbitrage: The price in East China decreased, and the regional price difference shrank [45]. 3.1.4 Photovoltaic Glass - Price and profit: Prices declined, recent orders decreased, shipments were average, and inventory increased. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.5 - 11 yuan/square meter, down 2.27% month - on - month; the 3.2mm coated mainstream order price is 18 - 19 yuan/square meter, down 2.63% month - on - month [53][55]. - Capacity and inventory: As the market weakens, it may enter a production - reduction cycle again. As of early July, the actual capacity is about 94,000 tons/day, and the sample inventory days are about 34.62 days, up 6.80% month - on - month [57][58][62]. 3.2 Soda Ash 3.2.1 Supply and Maintenance - Soda ash开工 changed little, and the potential maintenance volume is currently small. The capacity utilization rate is 81.32% (last week was 82.2%). The current weekly output of heavy soda ash is 396,000 tons. With high production and high inventory, either manufacturers increase production - reduction efforts or the real - estate industry recovers to drive the demand for glass and soda ash. Currently, glass has great pressure and cannot increase the demand for soda ash [66][68]. - Inventory is about 1.81 million tons, with 805,000 tons of light soda ash and 1.005 million tons of heavy soda ash [69][70]. 3.2.2 Price and Profit - The prices in Shahe and Hubei are nominally around 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton, and prices changed little this week [76][80]. - Due to high production and high inventory, the near - month pressure is large. The basis is slightly strong, and the monthly spread is under pressure. The near - month pressure comes from delivery and trade pressure, and the fundamental factor is the weak glass market and high soda ash production [82][85]. - The joint - alkali profit in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 12.5 yuan/ton, and the ammonia - alkali profit in North China is - 62 yuan/ton [88]. - There are several planned and under - construction projects in the soda ash industry, such as the second - phase project of Yuanxing Energy with an expansion capacity of 2.8 million tons/year, planned to be put into production in the second half of 2025 [84].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting removed "opportunistically cut reserve requirements and interest rates" and made changes in policy tone, monetary policy thinking, and exchange - rate statements [6]. - Copper prices are expected to remain firm due to the resonance of micro and macro factors. It is recommended to pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage and hold domestic copper term positive arbitrage [7][8]. - Glass is in a short - term shock market, with limited short - term upside and caution needed for short - selling at low levels [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Central Bank Policy - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting removed "combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply - side structural reform" and added "put strengthening the domestic large - cycle in a more prominent position and coordinate the relationship between total supply and total demand". It also removed "opportunistically cut reserve requirements and interest rates" and added "flexibly grasp the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation". The exchange - rate statement was also adjusted [6]. Copper - The price of copper has risen due to the resonance of micro and macro factors. The spot is tight, with low domestic and rapidly falling LME inventories and continuous spot premiums. The overseas logic has a more obvious pulling effect on prices. It is expected that the price will remain firm, and it is recommended to pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage and hold domestic copper term positive arbitrage [7][8]. Glass - Glass has been in a downward trend in the first half of the year due to weak real - estate demand, insufficient supply contraction, high factory inventories, and large warrant pressures. After reaching a low - valuation level in early June, it rebounded. Currently, it is in a shock market, with limited short - term upside and caution needed for short - selling at low levels [9]. Other Commodities - For other commodities such as zinc, lead, nickel, etc., the report provides their price trends, fundamental data, and trend intensities. For example, zinc is at a short - term high, and attention should be paid to volume and price; lead has support from peak - season expectations [12][15][18].