2025年08月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 对二甲苯：趋势偏强，正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：装置计划外停车，正套 | 2 | | MEG：趋势偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：区间运行 | 6 | | 沥青：原油略强，裂解愈弱 | 8 | | LLDPE：区间震荡 | 11 | | PP：趋势偏弱，但低位追空要谨慎 | 12 | | 烧碱：偏多对待 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：区间震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素：仍在区间震荡内，但上方压力逐步增加 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：压缩利润 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：宏观情绪溢价支撑，进口成本预期上涨 | 24 | | 丙烯：供需收紧，价格存支撑 | 24 | | PVC：短期震荡，趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油：震荡走势为主，短线转强 | 28 | | 低硫燃料油：偏弱怕盘整，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅反弹 | 28 | | 集运指数（欧 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - The soda ash futures have the potential to continue to be long due to supply reduction expectations, optimistic demand outlook, cost support, and policy speculation potential [3] Group 2: Soda Ash Futures Analysis - Supply: The current weekly production of the soda ash industry is maintained at a high level of 730,000 tons, with an operating rate as high as 87.13%. However, the new environmental protection policy in Qinghai will lead to production reduction expectations as Qinghai's capacity accounts for about 14.9% of the national capacity [3] - Demand: Although the float glass capacity is limited by the weak real - estate completion and new construction data, and the photovoltaic glass is in a loss situation, with the economic recovery, there is an optimistic expectation for future demand. The export volume of soda ash in the first half of 2025 increased significantly year - on - year, providing support to the market [3] - Cost: The prices of upstream raw materials such as coking coal have risen, and since fuel and raw materials account for a relatively high proportion in the cost of soda ash, it provides support to the soda ash futures price [3] Group 3: Other Futures Technical Analysis Stock Index Futures - The short - term market will enter a high - level shock stage [5] Gold - The July non - farm payroll data was significantly lower than expected, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downwards, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected. The probability of a rate cut in September has increased, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range shock [8] Iron Ore - The fundamentals are strongly supported as the molten iron output remains at a high level due to the improvement in steel mill profitability. The black industry chain is in a relatively healthy state under the call for anti - involution. Technically, it has a small fluctuation today and should be treated as a high - level wide - range shock recently [11][12] Glass - The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The main driving force for the recent market is the improvement and strengthening of the domestic economic recovery expectation. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [15][16] Alumina - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility in futures. EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View Glass - The medium - term adjustment may not be over, and the market still faces pressure. The previous policy proposals and peak - season expectations triggered a rebound, but factors such as weak basis, delivery, and high inventory have led to a market decline. The forward 01 contract has a large premium, causing short - term disturbances, but the market remains under pressure before the delivery pressure ends [2]. 纯碱 - The short - term trend is weak and volatile, and the downward pressure persists. The previous overcrowded short positions in the futures market led to a short - squeeze rally. The strengthening basis during the short - term decline is unfavorable for futures prices. The supply side is not actively reducing production, and the market is under pressure [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - As of August 14, 2025, there are 296 glass production lines in China (200,000 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 223 in operation and 73 cold - repaired. The daily output of float glass is 159,600 tons, unchanged from July 7th. The daily loss of float glass is 40,450 tons, and the weekly loss is 283,150 tons, both unchanged from the previous period [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting capacity of cold - repaired lines is 11,680 tons/day, the total daily melting capacity of ignited lines is 12,110 tons/day, the potential new ignition lines have a total daily melting capacity of 14,000 tons/day, the potential old - line复产 has a total daily melting capacity of 8,630 tons, and the potential cold - repair lines have a total daily melting capacity of 6,900 tons/day [10][11][12]. - The current in - production capacity is about 159,000 tons/day. Short - term production reduction space is limited, but there may be a certain - scale production cut in the fourth quarter if demand is poor in the third quarter [17][18]. Demand - The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.55 days, a 2.7% increase from the previous period and a 1.55% decrease year - on - year. The deep - processing orders in the southern region have not improved significantly, and the deep - processing profit is still low. Attention should be paid to the phased restrictions on deep - processing operations in some northern regions [2]. Inventory - As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 63.426 million heavy cases, a 2.55% increase from the previous period and a 5.94% decrease year - on - year. The inventory days are 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period. The overall sales rate in North China has increased, but the inventory has increased. In Central China, the downstream purchasing sentiment is weak, and the inventory has continued to rise [2]. Price and Profit - The market price has slightly declined this week, with a slower decline rate. The price in Shahe is around 1,140 - 1,180 yuan/ton (down 20 - 40 yuan/ton), in Central China's Hubei region it is 1,040 - 1,140 yuan/ton (down 40 - 80 yuan/ton), and in East China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, some large manufacturers' prices are 1,240 - 1,280 yuan/ton (down 20 - 40 yuan/ton) [24][28]. - The spot market is weaker recently, the basis has slightly weakened, and the inter - month spread is weak. The profit from petroleum coke is about 87 yuan/ton, and the profits from natural gas and coal fuels are about - 171 and 92 yuan/ton respectively [30][33]. Strategy - Single - side: Weak and volatile, with upper pressure at 1,100 - 1,150 and lower support at 1,000 - 1,030. - Inter - period: Buy 01 and sell 09. - Inter - variety: Short - term, buy soda ash and sell glass [2]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - The overall domestic photovoltaic glass market has good transactions, and the price is oscillating strongly. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.5 - 11 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels is 18.5 - 19 yuan/square meter, both unchanged from the previous period [51][53]. Capacity and Inventory - Recently, supply has been reduced, trading has improved, and inventory has declined. There are 408 photovoltaic glass production lines in operation, with a total daily melting capacity of 89,290 tons/day, unchanged from the previous week and a 16.71% decrease year - on - year. The sample inventory days are about 25.32 days, a 5.98% decrease from the previous period, with a narrowing decline rate [54][55][59]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Some soda ash plants have resumed operation, and the operating rate has increased. This week, the domestic soda ash production is 761,300 tons, a 2.24% increase from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate is 87.2%, up from 85.4% last week. Some plants are under maintenance or have reduced production loads, and some have plans for future maintenance [3][64][66]. Inventory - The inventory is about 1.894 million tons. The light soda ash inventory is 760,000 tons, an increase of 42,400 tons from the previous week, and the heavy soda ash inventory is 1.1338 million tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons from the previous week [4][68]. Price and Profit - Market quotes have been lowered, and the reduction by traders is greater than that by manufacturers. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are around 1,280 - 1,400 yuan/ton. The profit from the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is 9 yuan/ton, and the profit from the ammonia - alkali method in North China is 34.4 yuan/ton [78][80][84]. Strategy - Single - side: Weak and volatile, with upper pressure at 1,300 - 1,330 and lower support at 1,180 - 1,200. - Inter - period: Buy 01 and sell 09. - Inter - variety: Short - term, buy soda ash and sell glass [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the overall industry investment ratings in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend analyses and trading suggestions for various energy and chemical futures on August 15, 2025, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, and others, with different products showing different trends such as weakening, oscillating, or having support [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply - demand pressure increases, with a weakening trend. On August 14, the price dropped to $824 per ton. Suggest focusing on terminal order repairs starting from late August, and PXN has short - term support [5][8][13]. - **PTA**: Processing fees are at a low level. Attention should be paid to unplanned production cuts. The polyester start - up rate has increased to 89.4%. It is recommended to hold a mid - term long MEG and short PTA position, and consider a 9 - 1 month spread positive arbitrage [5][10][13]. - **MEG**: The trend is weakly oscillating. There are two sets of MEG devices in East China with a total annual capacity of 1.9 million tons that are currently shut down for 1 - 2 days. It is recommended to hold a mid - term long MEG and short PTA position, operate the 9 - 1 spread within the - 50 to 0 range, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [5][10][13]. Rubber - The rubber market is expected to oscillate. The trading volume has increased, and the position of the top 20 members' net short has decreased. The finished product inventory of semi - steel tire enterprises remains high, and the order situation is weak [14][15][17]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate within the week. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports has increased, and the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises has decreased. In the short term, there is a correction, and in the medium term, it oscillates within the valuation range [19][20][21]. Asphalt - The shipment in East China has improved locally. The trend strength is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend. The weekly output has decreased slightly, and both factory and social inventories have decreased [22][29][35]. LLDPE - The trend still faces pressure. The trend strength is - 1. The macro environment has limited changes, the cost has decreased due to falling oil prices, the supply pressure is increasing, and the downstream demand is in the off - season [36][37][39]. PP - Short - term short - chasing needs to be cautious, and the trend still faces pressure. The trend strength is 0. The cost is weak, the demand has no obvious bright spots, and the supply pressure is increasing, but there is uncertainty in the cost [41][42][43]. Caustic Soda - It is expected to oscillate in the short term. The trend strength is 1. The cost support is strong, and there is an expectation of demand in the peak season, especially with the expected production of 3.6 million tons of alumina capacity in Guangxi at the end of this year [45][47][48]. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The trend strength is 0. The price is affected by supply contraction expectations, tightened domestic circulation sources, and marginal improvement in demand, but the rebound space is limited [50][52][53]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The trend strength is - 1. The domestic float glass price is weakly stable, and the downstream is more cautious in purchasing due to the decline in the futures market [56][57]. Methanol - It is under oscillating pressure. The trend strength is - 1. The port inventory has increased significantly, and the port market is weakly oscillating, while the inland market has continued to rise [59][62][63]. Urea - It is under oscillating pressure. The trend strength is 0. The enterprise inventory has increased, and the short - term downward pressure is due to the decline in the commodity index and increased fundamental pressure [64][66][67]. Styrene - The profit is being compressed. The trend strength is 0. The downstream demand for styrene is weak, but pure benzene is temporarily strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to positions that compress styrene profit [68][69]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The trend strength is - 1. The supply has increased slightly, and the downstream demand is stable, with a light and stable oscillation expected in the short term [71][73][74]. LPG - The disk valuation is low, and attention should be paid to the risk of position reduction. The trend strength is 0. The expected price of Saudi CP has decreased, and there are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [77][82][83]. Propylene - Supply and demand are tightening, and the price has certain support. The trend strength is 0. The PDH start - up rate has increased, and the spread between propylene and relevant contracts has changed [78][82]. PVC - It is expected to oscillate weakly. The trend strength is - 1. The industry profit has expanded, but the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the market may continue to short the chlor - alkali profit [85][86][87]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session oscillates, and the short - term weakness continues. The trend strength is 0. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fluctuation intensifies, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable. The trend strength is 0 [88]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is in oscillating consolidation, and 10 short positions can be held at discretion. The freight rate index has declined, and the trading volume and position of relevant futures have changed [90].

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The medium-term adjustment of both glass and soda ash markets is not over. For glass, wait until the end of delivery to consider anti-deflation and anti-involution. For soda ash, it rises based on expectations and falls due to delivery [4][5] - There is a possibility that the market will return to the negative feedback channel until the end of delivery. Anti-deflation and anti-involution can interrupt the negative feedback cycle [24] - The real estate industry is weak, with tight funds and lackluster transactions, which has a negative impact on the glass and soda ash industries [25][30] - Although anti-involution is weakening, there is still a possibility of trading anti-deflation in macro asset allocation [35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Glass Views - The main pressures include weak terminal demand, high futures premiums, large warehouse receipt pressure during the 09 contract period, and the lack of significant inclination in the previously hyped anti-involution policy. The main bullish logics are large positions, the unchanged trend of anti-deflation policies, and the possibility of market-driven production cuts [4] Supply - Side Situation - Cold - repaired production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 11,680 tons/day; newly ignited production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 12,110 tons/day; potential newly ignited production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 14,000 tons/day; potential复产 production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 8,130 tons; potential cold - repaired production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 6,900 tons/day [44][45][46] - Short - term production reduction space is limited. If demand is poor in the third quarter, there may be a certain scale of production reduction in the fourth quarter. The current in - production capacity is about 159,000 tons/day [52] Price and Profit - Market prices have gradually declined in the past two weeks. Futures have rebounded, the basis has strengthened, and the monthly spread is still weak. The 01 contract has a premium of nearly 150 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. Profits vary by fuel type, with petroleum coke having a profit of about 130 yuan/ton, and natural gas and coal - fired having profits of about - 150 and 111 yuan/ton respectively [64][70][74] Inventory and Downstream开工 - Recent transactions have declined significantly, and inventories in various regions have increased. Regional price differences tend to widen. The supply - side current output is 159,000 tons/day, and it is expected that demand will exceed 5 million tons for at least 2 - 3 months in the second half of 2025 [81][86][90] Soda Ash Soda Ash Views - The main pressures are high supply and high inventory, with large warehouse receipt pressure during the 09 contract period. The main bullish logics are the unchanged trend of anti - deflation policies, concentrated inventory structure, improved export markets, and the linkage between stocks and futures [5] Supply and Maintenance - Some soda ash plants have resumed production, and the operating rate has increased. The current capacity utilization rate is 85.4%. The weekly output of heavy soda has reached 423,000 tons/week. The inventory is about 1.865 million tons, with 717,000 tons of light soda ash and 1.148 million tons of heavy soda ash [106][108][111] Price and Profit - Market quotes have been lowered, and the reduction range of traders' quotes is greater than that of manufacturers. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are about 1,250 - 1,300 yuan/ton. The profit of the soda ash industry varies by region and production method, with the joint - alkali profit in East China (excluding Shandong) being 68 yuan/ton and the ammonia - alkali profit in North China being 56 yuan/ton [121][123][127] Market Scenarios - The market scenario of soda ash is becoming increasingly weak. Under different demand assumptions (weak, neutral, and optimistic), there are different supply - demand gaps [129] Anti - Involution, Anti - Deflation, and Real Estate - "Anti - deflation and anti - involution" are necessary for building a unified national market. The real estate industry has debt repayment pressure in the first half of 2025, with weak investment and lackluster transactions [8][29][30] Photovoltaic Glass - The overall transaction in the domestic photovoltaic glass market is good, and the inventory has been continuously decreasing. The prices of 2.0mm and 3.2mm coated panels have increased. The number of in - production production lines is 408, with a total daily melting capacity of 89,290 tons/day. The sample inventory days are about 26.93 days, showing a downward trend [94][96][98]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: August 13, 2025 [1][4] - Report source: Guotai Junan Futures [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Group 3: Core Views - The report analyzes various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, etc., and provides trend judgments and investment suggestions for each variety [2]. Group 4: Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Supply - demand pressure increases, with a weakening trend. The main contract is shifting positions, and a 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended. PXN has short - term support [2][10]. - PTA: The trend is weak. Hold a mid - term position of long MEG and short PTA. Low processing fees may lead to unscheduled production cuts. A 1 - 5 reverse spread is also recommended [2][11]. - MEG: The trend is weakly oscillating. Hold a mid - term position of long MEG and short PTA. The 9 - 1 spread should be maintained in the range of - 50 to 0, and a 1 - 5 reverse spread can be considered [2][12]. Rubber - Rubber: It is expected to oscillate. The trend strength is neutral [2][13]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber: The fundamentals provide support, and it operates within the valuation range. Short - term is slightly strong, and mid - term is within the fundamental valuation range [2][20]. Asphalt - Asphalt: It mainly oscillates following crude oil. The trend strength is neutral [2][21]. LLDPE - LLDPE: The trend still faces pressure. Macro and cost factors, along with increasing supply and weak demand, contribute to this situation [2][37]. PP - PP: The short - term requires caution when short - selling. The trend still has pressure, but due to cost uncertainties and policy factors, low - level short - selling should be cautious [2][41]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: It will oscillate in the short term. Cost support is strong, and there are expectations for peak - season demand [2][46]. Pulp - Pulp: It is expected to oscillate. International pulp mills' price support and inventory reduction contribute to this trend [2][51]. Glass - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. The futures price shows a slight increase, and the spot price in some regions has declined [2][56]. Methanol - Methanol: It will have a narrow - range oscillation. The market is supported by cost and macro factors, but the acceptance of high - price goods by downstream needs attention [2][61]. Urea - Urea: It will oscillate within a range. The short - term market is reluctant to short at the fundamental valuation support level [2][66]. Styrene - Styrene: Compress the profit. The downstream demand is weak, while pure benzene is short - term strong [2][68]. Soda Ash - Soda ash: The spot market has little change. The market is weakly oscillating, and the demand is soft [2][71]. LPG - LPG: The valuation of the futures is low, and attention should be paid to the risk of position reduction [2][75]. Propylene - Propylene: Supply - demand tightens, and the price has certain support [2][76]. PVC - PVC: It will oscillate weakly. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, with high production and inventory problems [2][84]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil: It will oscillate weakly with a narrow - range adjustment. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The night session opened slightly lower, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market slightly narrowed [2][88]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Hold 10 short positions as appropriate [2][90]. Short - Fiber, Bottle Chip - Short - fiber, Bottle chip: They will have a short - term oscillation. A position of long PF and short PR is recommended [2][32]. Offset Printing Paper - Offset printing paper: It oscillates at a low level with limited upward momentum [2][33]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene: It is de - stocking continuously and is strong in the short term [2][34].

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide industry investment ratings. Core Viewpoints - The market trends of various energy and chemical commodities are diverse, with some showing a downward trend, some in a shock state, and others having potential upward momentum. For example, PX and PTA are trending weakly, while rubber and paper pulp are oscillating. The report also suggests specific trading strategies for some commodities, such as going long on MEG and short on PTA/PX [2][12]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply-demand pressure is increasing, and the trend is weak. The short - term PXN has support, and the mid - term trend remains weak. Suggest a short - position on the main contract and a reverse spread on the monthly difference [5][12]. - **PTA**: The unilateral trend is weak. With low processing fees, pay attention to unplanned production cuts. Hold a long - MEG and short - PTA position in the medium term, and conduct a positive spread on the 9 - 1 monthly difference [5][12]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is weakly oscillating. Hold a long - MEG and short - PTA position in the medium term. Take profit at around 0 for the 9 - 1 positive spread and operate within the - 50 to 0 range. Pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [5][13]. Rubber - The rubber market is oscillating. The trading volume and open interest have increased, and the inventory in Qingdao has decreased. The trend strength is neutral [14][15][17]. Synthetic Rubber - The fundamentals provide support, and it operates within the valuation range. Short - term is slightly strong and oscillating, and the mid - term lacks upward driving force. The trend strength is neutral [18][20]. Asphalt - It mainly oscillates following crude oil. The production has increased, the factory inventory has accumulated, and the social inventory has decreased. The trend strength is neutral [21][35]. LLDPE - The trend still faces pressure. The macro and cost factors are unfavorable, the supply pressure is increasing, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The trend strength is weak [36][37]. PP - Short - term short - selling should be cautious, and the trend still has pressure. The cost is weak, the demand has no obvious bright spots, and the supply pressure is increasing. The trend strength is neutral [40][41]. Caustic Soda - Bullish on the peak - season contracts. The previous decline was due to high production and low demand. The cost support is strong, and the peak - season demand is expected. The trend strength is strong [44][46]. Pulp - It is oscillating. The international pulp mills are firm on prices, the port inventory has decreased, and the downstream procurement sentiment has recovered. The trend strength is neutral [50][53]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The price has declined recently, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average. The trend strength is neutral [56][57]. Methanol - It is in a narrow - range oscillation. The supply is tightened due to maintenance and production cuts, and the terminal demand provides support. The trend strength is neutral [59][62]. Urea - It is under oscillating pressure. The enterprise inventory has decreased, and the short - term is in an interval - oscillation pattern. The trend strength is neutral [64][66]. Styrene - Focus on compressing profits. The downstream demand is weak, but pure benzene is temporarily strong. The trend strength is neutral [68][69]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The market is generally weak, with prices slowly declining and weak downstream demand. The trend strength is neutral [71][72]. LPG - The disk valuation is low, and attention should be paid to the risk of position reduction. The trend strength is neutral [74]. Propylene - Supply - demand is tightening, and the price has certain support. The trend strength is strong [74]. PVC - It is weakly oscillating. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, with high production and inventory. The trend strength is weak [84][85]. Fuel Oil - The night - session is weak, and it mainly shows an oscillating trend. The low - sulfur fuel oil is in an adjustment phase, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market has rebounded slightly. The trend strength of both is neutral [88]. Freight Index (European Line) - Hold the short positions on the October contract as appropriate. The freight rates of European and US - West routes have declined. [90]

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese stock market** and the **automobile industry** in the context of macroeconomic trends and policies. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Resilience**: The Chinese stock market and global markets appear resilient despite economic data and policy uncertainties, driven by liquidity factors [1][2][3] 2. **Economic Outlook**: The expectation for China's economic growth is cautious, with GDP growth projected to slow down to around 4.5% or lower, and deflationary pressures likely to persist into the first half of the next year [2][6] 3. **Liquidity-Driven Bull Market**: There are signs of a liquidity-driven bull market, particularly since early July, with a shift in asset allocation from fixed income to equity assets [5][11] 4. **Investor Sentiment**: International investors are increasingly interested in China, with a notable shift in sentiment regarding the country's investability compared to six months ago [13][14] 5. **Inflation and Deflation Concerns**: Discussions around whether China will experience prolonged deflation similar to Japan have diminished, with a more optimistic outlook on breaking the deflationary cycle [14][15] 6. **Sectoral Focus**: The automobile industry is highlighted as a key sector for observing the effects of anti-involution policies, which aim to reduce excessive price competition and improve supply chain profitability [33][34] 7. **Policy Impacts**: Recent policies, such as the 60-day payment terms, are expected to help stabilize the automobile industry's pricing and competition dynamics [34][35] 8. **Long-Term Industry Transformation**: The automobile sector is expected to undergo a transformation towards innovation and high-quality development, although short-term challenges remain [35][36] 9. **Supply Chain Optimization**: There is a focus on optimizing supply chains and eliminating inefficient production capacities within the automobile industry [38] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Global Liquidity Trends**: The global liquidity environment is influencing investment decisions, with expectations of a potential easing of monetary policy in the U.S. impacting emerging markets, including China [7][8][28] 2. **Investment Strategies**: Investors are advised to consider the structural changes in the Chinese stock market, particularly the shift towards high-quality sectors such as technology and finance, which now dominate the MSCI China Index [17][18] 3. **Market Dynamics**: The divergence in performance between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is noted, with A-shares expected to outperform in the near term due to lower relative valuations and sensitivity to policy changes [19][20][21] 4. **Consumer Behavior**: There is a growing trend of consumers shifting from fixed deposits to equity-linked financial products, indicating a change in investment behavior among residents [5][6] 5. **Future Monitoring**: The sustainability of liquidity improvements and the impact of upcoming economic policies will be critical to watch in the coming months [30][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Glass - Short - term short - selling should be cautious, and the market will gradually enter a weak oscillation state. The medium - term decline is not over. The previous policy proposals such as anti - involution and anti - deflation and the peak - season expectation led to a rebound, but currently, factors like weak basis, delivery, and high inventory cause the market to fall back. The large premium of the forward 01 contract means short - selling should be cautious in the short term [2]. 纯碱 - Short - term short - selling should be cautious, but the downward pressure remains. In the futures market, the previous over - crowded short positions led to a short - covering rally. The rising futures price drove spot purchases, but currently, the strengthening basis in the short - term decline is not conducive to the futures price. The 08 and 09 contracts may face large delivery pressure. If the supply remains high, the market will face significant pressure [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass - Supply - As of August 7, 2025, there are 296 glass production lines (200,000 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 223 in operation and 73 cold - repaired. The daily output of float glass is 159,600 tons, unchanged from July 31. The daily loss of float glass on August 7 is 40,450 tons, unchanged from the previous period, and the weekly loss is 283,150 tons, a 0.63% decrease from the previous week [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired lines is 11,680 tons/day, the total daily melting volume of ignited lines is 12,110 tons/day, the potential new ignition lines have a total daily melting volume of 14,000 tons/day, the potential old - line复产 has a total daily melting volume of 8,130 tons, and the potential cold - repair lines have a total daily melting volume of 6,900 tons/day [6][7][8]. - The current in - production capacity is about 159,000 tons/day. The short - term production reduction space is limited, but if demand is poor in the third quarter, there may be a certain - scale production reduction in the fourth quarter [13]. Glass - Price and Profit - The market price has slightly declined this week. The price in Shahe is about 1,180 - 1,200 yuan/ton (down 80 - 100 yuan/ton), in Hubei, Central China, it is about 1,160 - 1,200 yuan/ton (down 80 - 100 yuan/ton), and in some large factories in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region of East China, it is about 1,280 - 1,320 yuan/ton (down 20 - 40 yuan/ton) [16][20]. - The futures price has rebounded, the basis has strengthened, and the monthly spread remains weak. The profit of using petroleum coke as fuel is about 130 yuan/ton, and the profits of using natural gas and coal as fuel are about - 150 yuan/ton and 111 yuan/ton respectively [22][25]. Glass - Inventory and Downstream开工 - Recently, the transaction volume has significantly declined. The inventory in various regions has increased due to the decrease in spot transactions and market prices. The regional price difference tends to widen, with greater price cuts in Central China and Shahe and smaller cuts in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region [32][36]. Photovoltaic Glass - Price and Profit - The overall domestic photovoltaic glass market has good transactions, and the inventory has been decreasing. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.5 - 11 yuan/square meter, a 2.38% increase from the previous week; the mainstream order price of 3.2mm coated panels is 18.5 - 19 yuan/square meter, a 1.35% increase from the previous week [42][44]. Photovoltaic Glass - Capacity and Inventory - Recently, there has been a supply reduction, better trading, and a decline in inventory. There are 408 photovoltaic glass production lines in operation, with a total daily melting volume of 89,290 tons/day, unchanged from the previous period. The sample inventory days are about 26.93 days, an 8.13% decrease from the previous week [45][46][50]. 纯碱 - Supply and Maintenance - Some soda ash plants have resumed production, and the operating rate has increased. The production capacity utilization rate of soda ash is 85.4%, up from 80.2% last week. The current weekly output of heavy soda ash is 423,000 tons/week. In the context of high production and high inventory, either manufacturers should increase production cuts, or the real - estate industry chain should recover to drive the recovery of glass demand [55][57]. 纯碱 - Price and Profit - The market quotation has been lowered, and the quotation reduction of traders is greater than that of manufacturers. The nominal price in Shahe and Hubei is about 1,250 - 1,300 yuan/ton. The high production and high inventory put pressure on near - month contracts, but during the peak position - shifting period, the market may gradually turn to positive spreads [70][73][75]. - The profit of the joint - soda method in East China (excluding Shandong) is 68 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda method in North China is 56 yuan/ton [79].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Glass: Short - term short - chasing should be cautious. The market will gradually turn into a weak shock later, and the medium - term decline is not over. The previous policy proposals and peak - season expectations boosted the rebound, but now weak basis, delivery factors, and high inventory lead to a market decline. With a relatively large basis and excessive premium of the forward 01 contract, short - chasing should be careful [2]. -纯碱: Short - term short - chasing should be cautious, but the downward pressure is not over. In the futures market, the previous crowded shorts led to a short - covering stampede. The increase in the futures market drove spot purchases, reducing inventory and raising prices. The strengthening basis in the short - term decline is not conducive to the futures price, and the delivery pressure on the 08 and 09 contracts is expected to be large. The future trend depends on the basis regression and the supply - side response [3]. Summary by Related Directory Glass Supply - As of July 31, 2025, there were 296 domestic glass production lines (200,000 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 222 in production and 74 cold - repaired and shut down. The daily output of national float glass was 159,600 tons, a 0.38% increase from the 24th. The daily loss of float glass was 40,450 tons, a 1.46% decrease from the previous period, and the weekly loss was 284,950 tons, a 2.43% decrease from the previous period [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired lines was 11,680 tons/day, the total daily melting volume of ignited lines was 11,510 tons/day, the potential new ignition lines had a total daily melting volume of 14,000 tons/day, the potential old - line复产 had a total daily melting volume of 8,130 tons, and the potential cold - repair lines had a total daily melting volume of 6,900 tons/day [6][7][8][10][12]. - The current in - production capacity is about 159,000 tons/day. Short - term production reduction space is limited, but if demand is poor in the third quarter, there may be a certain - scale production reduction in the fourth quarter [13]. Demand - As of July 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.55 days, a 2.7% increase from the previous period and a 1.55% decrease from the same period last year. The deep - processing profits are still low, and the increase in the inventory days of reserved raw glass is higher than the increase in orders [2]. Inventory - As of July 31, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 59.499 million heavy cases, a decrease of 2.397 million heavy cases from the previous period, a 3.87% decrease from the previous period and a 13.88% decrease from the same period last year. The inventory days were 25.5 days, 1.1 days less than the previous period. The inventory in different regions decreased to varying degrees, but the decline rate slowed down due to the decrease in spot trading [2][35]. Price and Profit - The market price declined slightly this week, while the ex - factory price changed little. The price in Shahe was about 1,260 - 1,310 yuan/ton, in central China's Hubei region it was about 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton, and in some large factories in the eastern Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions it was about 1,320 - 1,400 yuan/ton [18][22]. - The futures rebounded, the basis strengthened, and the month - spread was still weak. The profit with petroleum coke as fuel was about 137 yuan/ton, and the profits with natural gas and coal as fuel were about - 150 and 138 yuan/ton respectively [24][27]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - The overall domestic photovoltaic glass market had good transactions, and the inventory continued to decline. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels was 10 - 11 yuan/square meter, and the mainstream order price of 3.2mm coated was 18 - 19 yuan/square meter, both unchanged from the previous week [44][46]. Capacity and Inventory - Affected by the anti - involution policy, the recent supply decreased, the trading improved, and the inventory declined. As of early August, there were 408 national photovoltaic glass production lines in production, with a total daily melting volume of 89,290 tons/day, a 1.33% decrease from the previous period and an 18.57% decrease from the same period last year. The sample inventory days were about 29.31 days, a 10.06% decrease from the previous period [47][48][52]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Soda ash enterprises had more device reductions, and the comprehensive supply decreased. The domestic soda ash output this period was 699,800 tons, a 3.32% decrease from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.27%, a 2.75% decrease from last week. Some enterprises were under maintenance or had reduced production loads, and there were also some planned maintenance and resumptions in the future [3][56]. - The current capacity utilization rate of soda ash is 80.27%, and the weekly output of heavy soda has reached 398,700 tons/week. In the context of high production and high inventory, either manufacturers need to increase production reduction efforts, or the real - estate industry chain needs to continue to recover to drive the recovery of glass demand and inventory [58][59]. Price and Profit - The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei were about 1,300 - 1,450 yuan/ton. The manufacturer's price changed little, while the quotes of futures - spot merchants decreased. The basis and month - spread: due to high production and high inventory, the near - month contracts were under pressure, but attention should be paid to the market potentially turning to positive spreads during the peak position - shifting period [69][72][74]. - The joint - soda production profit in East China (excluding Shandong) was 106 yuan/ton, and the ammonia - soda production profit in North China was 57 yuan/ton [77]. Inventory - The inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1.7958 million tons, a 3.69% decrease from the previous period and a 67.08% increase from the same period last year. A large amount of inventory was transferred to the delivery warehouse [3].