本文字数：1966，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 黄思瑜 "今年中国股市是全球表现最好的市场，到年末难免有一些获利回吐的压力，我们投的是中国公司在全 球地位不断上升的趋势。"莲华资产管理公司管理合伙人兼首席投资官洪灝称。 洪灝是在11月21日举办的"2025第一财经金融价值年会"上作出上述表述的。对于今年中国股市的上 涨，有观点认为没有基本面支撑，但洪灝持反对意见。他认为，中国股市的运行有基本面支撑，支撑经 济基本面的核心力量由房地产转变为新能源、半导体、高端制造等新兴产业。 2025.11. 25 在洪灝看来，"9.24"以来的行情没有修复完，随着工业利润不断修复，将支持上证指数继续创新高。 中国股市最值得期待的"第五浪"刚刚开始，涨幅可能超出普遍预期。 通缩预期有望修复 近三年，中国的上游行业基本处于通缩状态，今年通缩压力开始向下游传导，具体体现在需求不振、内 卷等方面。 "今年我觉得最有意义的事情，就是反内卷的具象化。反内卷讲了一年多，但是一直没有具体落地，导 致产能继续过剩和无序价格竞争升级，下游也出现通缩现象。"洪灝说。 "我们看到的上游反通缩工作，在未来几个月会逐渐传导到下游。"洪灝的逻 ...

"今年中国股市是全球表现最好的市场，到年末难免有一些获利回吐的压力，我们投的是中国公司在全球地位不断上升的趋势。"莲华资产管理公司管理合伙 人兼首席投资官洪灝称。 通缩预期有望修复 近三年，中国的上游行业基本处于通缩状态，今年通缩压力开始向下游传导，具体体现在需求不振、内卷等方面。 "今年我觉得最有意义的事情，就是反内卷的具象化。反内卷讲了一年多，但是一直没有具体落地，导致产能继续过剩和无序价格竞争升级，下游也出现通 缩现象。"洪灝说。 "我们看到的上游反通缩工作，在未来几个月会逐渐传导到下游。"洪灝的逻辑在于，最近10年猪肉行业利润率和工业金属价格基本上同涨同跌，7月份，工 业金属价格和猪肉利润率开始有所提升。虽然最后价格没有很大的变化，但是猪农的利润率发生比较明显的变化。 就上游的通胀情况来看，洪灝说，如果现在看到铁矿石的价格开始回暖，在未来3～6个月也会看到上游的PPI（工业品出厂价格指数）通缩压力减少。同 时，消费意愿也滞后3～6个月，也就是说如果现在看到上游的通缩预期在逐步消退，未来3～6个月应该会看到上游的价格以及消费预期都会开始有所回暖。 "现在大家可能没有感受到，毕竟上游传导需要一段时间，但是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fundamental support for the Chinese stock market has shifted from real estate to emerging industries such as new energy, semiconductors, and high-end manufacturing, indicating a robust market outlook despite potential profit-taking pressures by year-end [1][7]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The Chinese stock market is currently the best-performing market globally, with expectations for continued growth driven by the rising global status of Chinese companies [1]. - The ongoing market rally since September 24 has not fully recovered, but industrial profit recovery is expected to support the Shanghai Composite Index in reaching new highs [4]. - The anticipated "fifth wave" of the stock market is just beginning, with potential gains exceeding general expectations [4][9]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Recent years have seen upstream industries in China experiencing deflation, with this pressure now beginning to affect downstream sectors, leading to weak demand and increased competition [5]. - The recovery of upstream inflation is expected to gradually transmit to downstream sectors over the next 3 to 6 months, potentially improving consumer sentiment and spending [5][6]. - Industrial profits have shown significant growth, exceeding 20% in September and October, indicating a positive trend in upstream enterprises [6]. Group 3: Fundamental Support for the Stock Market - The previous reliance on real estate as a fundamental indicator has diminished, with its contribution to GDP now around 10%, while emerging sectors like new energy vehicles and high-end manufacturing are gaining prominence [7]. - The performance of gold and silver has reached historic highs, suggesting significant changes in the economic landscape, including rising U.S. national debt and aggressive fiscal policies in Japan [7]. - The cyclical nature of the Chinese economy suggests that each economic cycle lasts approximately 3 to 4 years, with current indicators reflecting a return to relative cyclical highs [8]. Group 4: Long-term Market Outlook - The relationship between the Shanghai Composite Index and industrial profits indicates that as industrial profits recover, the index is likely to continue reaching new highs [8]. - The long-term trend suggests that the yield curve for long-term bonds will continue to steepen, which is a key economic indicator [8]. - The wave theory applied to the Chinese stock market suggests that the current phase is just beginning, with expectations for substantial growth ahead [9].

2025.11. 22 本文字数：2585，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈君君 当前，全球经济在波动中寻求新的平衡，下行压力与结构性挑战并存。虽然全球通胀整体有所缓和， 但地缘政治冲突、供应链重构压力，以及主要经济体政策调整带来的外溢效应，依然构成严峻考验。 过去一年，美国政府贸易政策摇摆不定，引发全球贸易格局不确定性增加，国际政策协调的复杂性也 显著上升。 11月21日，由第一财经主办的 "2025第一财经金融价值年会" 在上海举行。本届年会集结国内顶尖 高校学者、金融机构高管及资本市场参与者，以"突破·韧性·跃迁"为主题，围绕人民币国际化"十五 五"前瞻、中国经济新质趋势、居民消费率提升路径等核心议题展开深入讨论，聚焦财富管理与科技 投资两大热点。 年会期间，还揭晓了"2025第一财经年度金融人物"，他们在推动行业变革、引领业务创新、深化市 场研究等方面展现出显著影响力，其实践经验与观点，为观察未来经济与金融发展的走向提供了重要 参照。 人民币汇率与中国经济新阶段：从全球变局中寻找确定性 当下世界正面临三大关键趋势：一是全球化深度调整，保护主义抬头，地缘政治与供应链风险上升； 二是科技革命重塑 ...

Group 1 - The global economy is seeking a new balance amid downward pressures and structural challenges, with geopolitical conflicts and supply chain restructuring posing significant tests [1] - The "2025 First Financial Annual Financial Value Conference" held in Shanghai focused on key topics such as the internationalization of the RMB, new trends in the Chinese economy, and paths to enhance household consumption [1] - The conference highlighted influential figures in the financial industry who have significantly impacted industry transformation and market research [1] Group 2 - Three key trends are shaping the current global landscape: deep adjustments in globalization, the rise of protectionism, and the integration of technology with the economy [2] - China is entering a "dual investment" phase, balancing both inbound and outbound investments [2] Group 3 - Since the Belt and Road Initiative, China's outbound direct investment (ODI) has rapidly increased, surpassing foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2015 and maintaining a leading position in most years [3] - The structure of China's trade partners has diversified, with exports to the US, EU, and ASEAN decreasing from 50.8% in 2019 to 45.5% in 2024, while exports to Belt and Road countries have risen to approximately 47% [3] Group 4 - The internationalization of the RMB is expected to accelerate during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with significant breakthroughs in trade settlement, payment systems, and reserve allocation over the past 16 years [3][5] - The necessity for RMB internationalization has increased due to changes in the global trade landscape and rising dollar credit risks [5] Group 5 - The new core variable of China's economy is the new quality productivity, driven by technological innovation and deep integration with the industrial chain [5] - The contribution of real estate to the economy has decreased to about 10%, while the stock market is benefiting from emerging industries and economic recovery [12] Group 6 - The long-term trend of the Chinese stock market remains upward, with investment opportunities in sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, new energy vehicles, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence [12] - The conference included discussions on wealth growth in a low-interest-rate environment, emphasizing a shift from single yield pursuit to long-term stable allocation strategies [12][13]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 玻璃纯碱周度报告 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周玻璃观点：短期震荡偏弱 中期震荡市 | 供应 | 周内浮法玻璃产线稳定运行，无放水、点火产线，周产量环比持平。截至20251113， 国内玻璃生产线在剔除僵尸产线后共计296条(20万吨/ | | --- | --- | | | 日），其中在产222条，冷修停产74条，截至2025年11月13日，全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.91万吨，与6日持平。 | | 需求 | 截至20251031，全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值10.8天，环比+4.0%，同比-16.1%。本期深加工订单有所分化，其中北部持有订单均值环比 | | | 略有提升，部分持有工程订单比例有所增加；而南部订单多数持平甚至部分环比下滑，整体竞价依旧激烈。 | | 库存 | 截止到20251113，全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6324.7万重箱，环比+11.1万重箱，环比+0.18%，同比+33.61%。折库存天数27.5天，较上期 | | | +0.4天。本周华北地区出货较前期减缓 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Glass: Short - term is volatile and weak, medium - term is a volatile market. The short - term pressure mainly comes from the under - expected production cut. Although the market transaction was good this week, the futures market was still weak. In the long - term, the policy factors of anti - deflation and anti - involution are not clearly falsified, so the long - term trend should not be overly bearish. [2] -纯碱: The trend is weak. The problems of high production and high inventory in the soda ash industry have not slowed down but increased. It depends on either large - scale production cuts in soda ash or continuous improvement in the glass industry to drive positive market feedback. [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Supply - This week, there were slight changes in the float glass production lines. Four production lines in Shahe were shut down, and one in Dalian was put into production. As of November 6, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines in China (200,000 tons per day), with 222 in production and 74 cold - repaired and shut down. The daily output of national float glass was 159,100 tons, a 1.33% decrease compared to 30 days ago. [2] - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines was 11,680 tons per day; the total daily melting volume of ignited production lines was 13,910 tons per day; the total daily melting volume of potentially newly ignited production lines was 14,790 tons per day; the total daily melting volume of potentially restarted old production lines was 10,030 tons; and the total daily melting volume of potentially cold - repaired production lines was 7,950 tons per day. [6][7][8] - After the production cut in Shahe, the further production cut space within the year is limited. Currently, the in - production capacity is about 159,000 tons per day, and the peak capacity in 2021 was 178,000 tons per day. [11] Demand - As of October 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 10.8 days, a 4.0% increase month - on - month and a 16.1% decrease year - on - year. The deep - processing orders were differentiated, with a slight increase in the north and flat or decreased orders in the south. [2] Inventory - As of November 6, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 2.654 million heavy boxes month - on - month (4.03% decrease) and a 29.05% increase year - on - year. The inventory days were 27.1 days, a decrease of 0.9 days from the previous period. [2] - The production cut in Shahe drove the improvement of spot transactions and a slight decrease in inventory. This year, the inventory reduction started in the third quarter and the intensity in the fourth quarter was not strong, different from the previous years when the main inventory reduction period was in the fourth quarter. [29][32] Price and Profit - Some manufacturers slightly increased prices, while most remained unchanged. The price in Shahe was around 1,120 - 1,140 yuan/ton; in Hubei, central China, it was 1,100 - 1,140 yuan/ton (some increased by 20 - 40 yuan/ton); in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, eastern China, the price of some large manufacturers was around 1,250 - 1,280 yuan/ton. [14][18] - The spot price changed little, but the futures price dropped more, and the basis strengthened. The profit of petroleum coke was about - 1.77 yuan/ton, and the profits of natural gas and coal - fired fuels were about - 72 and 78 yuan/ton respectively. [19][22] Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - The recent market transactions have started to weaken, and this situation is expected to continue. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels was 12.5 - 13 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels was 19.5 - 20 yuan/square meter, both unchanged month - on - month. [40][42] Capacity and Inventory - The market transactions have started to weaken, and the inventory is expected to increase seasonally later. There were 406 photovoltaic glass production lines in production in China, with a total daily melting volume of 87,000 tons per day, a 1.36% decrease month - on - month and an 11.64% decrease year - on - year. The sample inventory days were about 24.06 days, a 6.43% increase month - on - month. [44][49][53] Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Some soda ash plants had phased maintenance and reduced production. The overall maintenance volume in the fourth quarter is generally low. The capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 85.6%, down from 86.9% last week. The current weekly output of heavy soda ash was about 414,800 tons per week. [59][61] Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was about 1.7142 million tons, an increase of 12,200 tons (0.72% increase) from last week. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 814,600 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons month - on - month; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 899,600 tons, an increase of 13,200 tons month - on - month. [64][66] Price and Profit - The low - end price in Shahe was 1,155 yuan/ton. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei were around 1,155 - 1,400 yuan/ton. The enterprise quotations changed little. The profit of the combined - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) was - 174 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda method in North China was - 43 yuan/ton. [76][77][84]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss the implications of the US-China trade relations, the monetary policies of the Bank of Japan, and the economic strategies of China and India. Core Points and Arguments US-China Trade Relations - The recent US-China trade agreement reached in South Korea is seen as more constructive than previous expectations, with significant reductions in tariffs related to fentanyl by 50% [2] - The agreement includes a one-year grace period instead of quarterly updates, indicating a more durable arrangement [2] - The framework suggests a strategic stalemate where both countries have mutually destructive leverage, maintaining low bilateral trade levels and high non-tariff barriers in technology and export controls [2] - China will continue to supply rare earths in exchange for US technology inputs, promoting domestic technological advancement [2] China's Economic Strategy - China's latest five-year plan emphasizes technological self-sufficiency and consumption upgrades to overcome supply chain bottlenecks [4] - Specific goals include increasing the consumption share of GDP and enhancing social welfare, such as improving rural pension standards [4] - The plan faces challenges due to severe economic imbalances and entrenched deflation, with expectations of a negative GDP deflator index until 2026 [4] Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates, with signals from the governor indicating confidence in achieving inflation targets [5] - Political factors may influence the timing of rate hikes, particularly if elections are called [5] - The upcoming meetings in December and January will provide critical data on corporate profits and wage negotiations [5] Currency and Market Dynamics - The US dollar's short-term outlook is uncertain, with potential bearish trends in the medium term due to upcoming policy and political risks [7] - Asian currencies, particularly the Chinese yuan, are expected to remain stable, supported by a trade surplus of approximately $10 billion monthly [8] - The Indian rupee is projected to perform well due to central bank interventions and potential trade agreements, while the Singapore dollar is seen as an attractive financing currency [9] Investment and Economic Outlook - The new investment agreement between the US and South Korea is expected to reduce market uncertainty, with an annual investment cap of $20 billion that aligns with market capacity [18] - This agreement is viewed positively for the Korean won, minimizing potential impacts on its exchange rate [18] - The overall economic environment in Asia remains cautious, with expectations of continued low yields in China and India due to weak domestic demand [11][12] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The Chinese government has prioritized 17 investment areas, including AI and biotechnology, which will receive increased budget allocations [6] - The competitive advantage of China in rare earth processing is highlighted, with a significant time lag for the US and allies to replicate this capability [14] - The potential impact of the US Supreme Court's decisions on tariffs and trade relations with China remains uncertain, with implications for bilateral tariffs and non-tariff barriers [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 30, 2025, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with US President Trump in Busan. The China - US economic and trade teams reached consensus on issues such as the 301 measures on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries, the extension of the suspension period of reciprocal tariffs, fentanyl tariffs and law - enforcement cooperation, agricultural product trade, and export controls. Overall, it's a "one - year truce" between the two countries, and the long - term competition and game between China and the US are certain [6]. - Glass is short - term weak and medium - term in a volatile market. In the short term, due to the industry meeting falling short of expectations, the market's expectation of supply - side contraction in the glass industry has significantly decreased, and with the real - estate market not improving significantly, the price is weak. In the medium term, the market may fluctuate repeatedly [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Core Viewpoint**: Gold should focus on US bank risks, and silver is in an oscillating rebound. Gold's trend strength is 1, and silver's is also 1 [10][13][15]. - **Fundamental Data**: Provided data on prices, trading volumes, positions, inventories, and spreads of gold and silver futures and spot in domestic and international markets, as well as exchange - rate data [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Included news such as the China - US leaders' meeting, the European Central Bank's "holding steady", the Bank of Japan's maintaining interest rates, and corporate earnings reports [13][16]. Copper - **Core Viewpoint**: The number of disturbing factors for copper has increased, and the price is oscillating. The trend strength is 0 [10][17][18]. - **Fundamental Data**: Presented data on copper futures prices, trading volumes, positions, inventories, and spreads, as well as spot prices and spreads [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Covered news like the China - US leaders' meeting, the European Central Bank's "holding steady", Indonesia's possible permission for copper concentrate exports, and changes in copper production of some companies [17][18][19]. Zinc - **Core Viewpoint**: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation. The trend strength is 0 [10][20][22]. - **Fundamental Data**: Showed data on zinc futures prices, trading volumes, positions, spot premiums, and import and export profits and losses [20]. - **News**: Included the news of the China - US economic and trade teams reaching consensus [20]. Lead - **Core Viewpoint**: The continuous reduction of domestic and foreign lead inventories supports the price. The trend strength is 0 [10][23]. - **Fundamental Data**: Provided data on lead futures prices, trading volumes, positions, spot premiums, and import and export profits and losses, as well as inventory data [23]. - **News**: Mentioned the China - US leaders' meeting [23]. Tin - **Core Viewpoint**: Tin should focus on macro - level impacts. The trend strength is 0 [10][25][28]. - **Fundamental Data**: Offered data on tin futures prices, trading volumes, positions, inventories, and spreads, as well as spot prices and spreads [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Included news such as the China - US leaders' meeting, the European Central Bank's "holding steady", and corporate earnings reports [25][26]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Core Viewpoint**: Aluminum's price fluctuation is converging, alumina is slightly declining, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Aluminum's trend strength is 0, alumina's is - 1, and cast aluminum alloy's is 0 [10][29][31]. - **Fundamental Data**: Presented data on prices, trading volumes, positions, inventories, and spreads of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot, as well as cost and profit data [29]. - **Comprehensive News**: Included news such as the Bank of Japan's maintaining interest rates and the US Senate's passing a resolution to terminate Trump's comprehensive tariff policy [31]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Core Viewpoint**: Nickel is in a narrow - range oscillation due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel - ore concerns. Stainless steel has limited downward potential and lacks upward drivers. The trend strength of both is 0 [10][32][34]. - **Fundamental Data**: Provided data on nickel and stainless - steel futures prices, trading volumes, positions, and prices and spreads in the industrial chain [32]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Included news such as Indonesia's taking over a nickel - ore mining area, China's suspension of a non - official subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia, and Indonesia's sanctions on mining companies [32][33]. Lithium Carbonate - **Core Viewpoint**: After the absolute price of lithium carbonate rises, attention should be paid to the switching of expectations between the Q1 off - season and lithium - ore resumption of work. The trend strength is 0 [10][35][37]. - **Fundamental Data**: Presented data on lithium carbonate futures prices, trading volumes, positions, basis, and prices in the industrial chain [35]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Included news such as the increase in lithium - carbonate prices, changes in production and inventory, a lithium - ore auction, and the G7's plan to establish a critical - mineral production alliance [36][37]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Core Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon should focus on subsequent warehouse - receipt registration, and polysilicon is in a high - level oscillating state. The trend strength of both is 0 [10][38][40]. - **Fundamental Data**: Provided data on prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures and spot, as well as cost and profit data [38]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Included news about the release of the list of enterprises meeting the photovoltaic manufacturing industry's standard conditions [38][40]. Iron Ore - **Core Viewpoint**: Iron ore is in a relatively strong oscillation. The trend strength is 0 [10][42][43]. - **Fundamental Data**: Presented data on iron - ore futures prices, positions, spot prices, and spreads [42]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Included news of the China - US leaders' meeting [42]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Core Viewpoint**: Due to the repeated macro - level sentiment, rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a wide - range oscillation. The trend strength of both is 0 [10][45][46][48]. - **Fundamental Data**: Provided data on rebar and hot - rolled coil futures prices, trading volumes, positions, spot prices, and spreads [46]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Included news such as changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand, policies supporting commercial real - estate REITs, and the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan's suggestions [47][48]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Core Viewpoint**: Due to the repeated market sentiment, ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in a wide - range oscillation. The trend strength of both is 0 [10][50][53]. - **Fundamental Data**: Presented data on ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures prices, trading volumes, positions, spot prices, and spreads [50]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Included news such as price quotes of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, changes in production and capacity utilization in different regions, and steel - mill procurement prices [50][52][53]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Core Viewpoint**: Coke is in a relatively strong oscillation, and coking coal is in a relatively strong oscillation due to the resonance of macro - level and sector - theme factors. The trend strength of both is 0 [10][54][55][56]. - **Fundamental Data**: Provided data on coke and coking - coal futures prices, trading volumes, positions, spot prices, and spreads [55]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Included news of the China - US leaders' meeting [56]. Logs - **Core Viewpoint**: Logs are in an oscillating and repeated state [57].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is entering a bull market phase, with significant optimism from international investors, driven by advancements in technology and economic recovery [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - Economist Hong Hao has been a prominent advocate for the bull market in China, consistently expressing a bullish outlook even during market corrections [1]. - International investors are beginning to change their narrative regarding Chinese assets, recognizing the significant achievements in technology and industry outside of real estate [2]. - The current market sentiment is overly pessimistic, comparable to the fears seen during the 2008 financial crisis, despite signs of economic improvement [10][11]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Shanghai Composite Index recently surpassed 4000 points for the first time since 2015, indicating a strong market performance [7][6]. - Hong Hao believes that the continuous inflow of funds into the market is a key driver of the positive trend in Chinese assets, which often leads market performance ahead of the real economy [8]. - The weakening of the US dollar and the rotation of funds are identified as critical factors contributing to the surge in Chinese assets [9][10]. Group 3: Policy and Structural Changes - Recent policy shifts, particularly the "anti-involution" initiative, are expected to play a significant role in supporting the stock market's upward trajectory [11]. - The governance of upstream enterprises and the regulation of unfair price competition are anticipated to lead to a recovery in commodity prices, which could further bolster market performance [11][12]. - Historical patterns suggest that as commodity prices begin to recover, the market will likely see improved performance in the coming months [12][13]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The cyclical nature of the Chinese economy suggests that a significant bull market occurs approximately every ten years, with the last major bull markets in 2005 and 2015 [13][14]. - Current market conditions do not yet reflect the achievements made in AI and chip technology, indicating that there is still room for growth in the stock market [13][14].