国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 日期：2026年2月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周玻璃观点：中期震荡市 | 供应 | 周内国内浮法玻璃产线略有波动，江苏两条浮法产线计划外放水，涉及产能1200吨。截至2026年2月5日，国内玻璃生产线在剔除僵尸产线后 | | --- | --- | | | 共计296条(19.95万吨/日），其中在产211条，冷修停产85条。全国浮法玻璃日产量为14.98万吨，比29日-0.79% | | | 本周（20260130-0205）浮法玻璃行业平均开工率71.86%，环比持平；浮法玻璃行业平均产能利用率75.61%，环比-0.09个百分点。截止2月5日， | | | 浮法玻璃日度损失量4.968万吨，环比+2.48%，周度损失量34.06万吨，环比+0.35%。 | | 需求 | 深加工： 截至20260115，全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值9.3天，环比+7.9%，同比+86.4%。目前来看，随着春节脚步临近，加工厂多数进 | | | 入赶 ...

烧碱：低位震荡，未来成本抬升预期强 PVC：偏弱震荡 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2026年2月8日 | 供应 | 中国10万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为87.8%，较上周环比+0.1% | | --- | --- | | | 氧化铝方面，本周国内检修式压产频繁，运行产能弹性波动，整体供应形势尚未发生根本性改变，对价格支撑仍旧不足，不排除仍有其他 | | 需求 | 氧化铝企业在2月份出现阶段性生产波动的可能，预计主要影响范围仍集中在山西与河南区域，以及山东个别高成本企业。非铝需求当前 | | | 维持刚需，面临淡季开工下滑。从烧碱出口方面看，出口订单较少，下游囤货意愿较弱。 | | | 市场做空烧碱利润的核心逻辑是液氯偏强，烧碱成本下滑，未到现金流成本厂家不减产，因而高产量、高库存格局持续。然而该逻辑在后 期将受到挑战，主要因液氯的短期强势格局在4月份之后（出口退税导致的抢出口结束）或难以持续。 | | | 从基本面看，烧碱高库存导致现货弱势在春节前难逆转。需求端，氧化铝供应过剩格局短期仍未改变，减产预期压制对烧碱的囤货，不过 | | 观点 | 后期也有大规 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 玻璃纯碱周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 日期：2026年1月25日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周玻璃观点：中期震荡市 | 供应 | 截至2026年1月22日，国内玻璃生产线在剔除僵尸产线后共计296条(19.95万吨/日），其中在产212条，冷修停产84条。全国浮法玻璃日产量为 15.07万吨，与15日持平。 | | --- | --- | | | 截至2026年1月22日，浮法玻璃行业开工率为71.62%，与15日持平；浮法玻璃行业产能利用率为75.57%，与15日持平。 | | 需求 | 深加工： 截至20260115，全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值9.3天，环比+7.9%，同比+86.4%。目前来看，随着春节脚步临近，加工厂多数进 | | | 入赶工期，虽收尾、散单为主，但订单可执行天数略有增加，目前集中在10天附近，家装之类仍以低金额散单为主。 | | 库存 | 截止到20260122，全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存5321.6万重箱，环 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 玻璃纯碱上下反复未来趋势走向何方 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 日期：2026年1月 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 观点及策略 1 玻璃观点：减产预期则向上，不减产则交易交割压力和远期升水过高 空头主要逻辑： 1、终端需求并未改善，订单 普遍零散且回款问题仍有压 力； 2、反通缩、反内卷虽是趋势， 但是落地时间可能会比较晚， 期货高升水是错误； 3、期货远期持续高升水，导 致中间库存压力较大，仓单 压力较大。 三大要点： 反通缩、反内卷因素； 房地产能不能稳住； 期货高升水及交割因素； 多头主要逻辑： 1、盈亏比合适，价格处于近 十年低位。全行业亏损； 2、反通缩、反内卷是趋势， 未来湖北地区石油焦改天然 气； 3、房地产4年下跌，进一步 缩量空间有限； 空头交易路线 期货升水达到20% 库存同比、环比升高 供应收缩不明显或短期 处于政策空窗期 期现：买入现货，做空期货 杠杆：扩大期货/现货 头寸比例 平仓：估值因素950-1000元/吨，基差回归 风险： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Glass**: Short - term weakness and medium - term oscillation. Short - term factors include forward premium, inventory pressure, and off - season influence. Mid - term bullish drivers are anti - deflation, anti - involution policies, and potential production cuts in the glass industry. However, high forward premium, high inventory, and supply contraction factors also exist. The price is expected to fluctuate between the upward drive of production cut expectations and the downward pressure of weak demand and weak basis [4][6]. - **Soda Ash**: Short - term weakness and medium - term oscillation. The core driving forces of pressure are supply surplus, high forward premium in futures, and potential demand reduction from downstream production cuts. It needs large - scale production cuts in soda ash or continuous improvement in the glass industry to drive the market. The price is supported by limited downward space and suppressed by long - term supply surplus and potential production cuts in the glass industry [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - Current production capacity is about 150,000 tons per day, with a peak of 178,000 tons per day in 2021. In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines was 21,330 tons, and that of newly ignited production lines was 15,010 tons. There are also potential new ignition, old - line复产, and cold - repair production lines with certain daily melting volumes. Usually, production cuts are likely to occur from the end of the fourth quarter to the first quarter [10][11][15]. Price and Profit - Prices in most regions are stable with little change, but market transactions declined in the second half of the week. The basis strengthened due to the decline in futures prices. Profits for different fuel types are negative, with petroleum coke at about - 7 yuan/ton, natural gas at about - 186 yuan/ton, and coal at about - 74 yuan/ton [19][24][28]. Inventory and Downstream开工 - After New Year's Day, transactions improved and inventory decreased, but transactions declined in the second half of the week. Current inventory is relatively high, and regional arbitrage shows little change in price differences [36][41]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - Market transactions have weakened recently, and this situation is expected to continue. The prices of 2.0mm and 3.2mm coated panels are stable compared with last week [45][47]. Capacity and Inventory - Market transactions are weak, and inventory in some regions has increased. The sample inventory days are about 38.94 days, a 3.07% decrease from the previous week [49][55]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Some plants have resumed production, and the operating rate is gradually increasing. The overall capacity utilization rate is 86.82%, up 2.43% from last week. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.575 million tons, a 0.15% increase from last week and a 10.06% increase year - on - year [2][58][62]. Price and Profit - The low - end price in the Shahe area is 1,140 yuan/ton, and the market price has slightly decreased. Factory ex - factory prices are mostly stable. The basis strengthened as futures prices declined. The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 40 yuan/ton, and that of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 58 yuan/ton [70][73][77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - **Soda Ash**: The market is expected to be in a mid - term sideways trend. Supply surplus, high forward premium in futures, and potential downstream production cuts are the core driving forces of pressure. The price is supported by limited downside space and suppressed by supply surplus and glass industry cuts. The trading rhythm follows glass, with lower volatility [2][4]. - **Glass**: In the short term, it is weak; in the medium term, it is in a sideways trend, and over - bearish views are not advisable. The market will switch between rising driven by production cut expectations and falling due to weak demand and weak basis. The valuation factor will be crucial in the future [5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - In the week, one float glass production line each in Southwest and Central China was shut down for cold repair, resulting in a week - on - week decline in production. As of January 8, 2026, the daily output of national float glass was 150,100 tons, a decrease of 0.96% compared to January 1st [5]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines was 21,330 tons/day, and the total daily melting volume of ignited production lines was 15,010 tons/day. Potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting volume of 14,490 tons/day, potential old - line复产 production lines have a total of 9,370 tons, and potential cold - repair production lines have a total of 9,420 tons/day [10][11][12]. - The current in - production capacity is about 150,000 tons/day, and the peak capacity in 2021 was 178,000 tons/day [16]. Demand As of December 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a week - on - week decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Engineering orders are gradually ending, and home - decoration orders are mainly low - value single orders [6]. Inventory As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 1.348 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 2.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.04%. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days compared to the previous period [6]. Price and Profit - Market prices are mostly stable, with some regions showing increases. The price in Shahe is about 1,000 - 1,020 yuan/ton (up 10 - 20 yuan/ton), in Central China's Hubei region is 1,020 - 1,060 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton), and in East China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the prices of some large manufacturers are 1,110 - 1,250 yuan/ton (mostly stable, some slightly up 10 - 20 yuan/ton) [19][23]. - The profit with petroleum coke as fuel is about - 7 yuan/ton, and the profits with natural gas and coal as fuels are about - 186 and - 74 yuan/ton respectively [28][32]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - Market transactions have weakened recently, and this situation is expected to continue. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.5 - 11 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels is 17.5 - 18.5 yuan/square meter, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [44][46]. Capacity and Inventory - There are 400 in - production production lines nationwide, with a total daily melting volume of 87,620 tons/day, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.31%. As of Thursday this week, the sample inventory days were about 40.17 days, a week - on - week increase of 2.66%, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.16 percentage points [51][56]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Some soda ash production plants have carried out phased maintenance and production reduction. The current capacity utilization rate is 84.4%, and the weekly output of heavy soda ash is about 405,000 tons. The inventory is about 1.5727 million tons. As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.93% [60][62][69]. Price and Profit - The low - end price in Shahe area is 1,180 yuan/ton, showing an increase. Most manufacturers' ex - factory prices are stable, with prices in Shandong increasing by 30 - 50 yuan/ton. The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 40 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 58 yuan/ton [77][78][84]. Basis and Month - to - Month Spread The rise in futures has led to a weakening of the basis [80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Both caustic soda and PVC face oversupply, high inventory, and low - profit situations. In late 2025, production cuts were made, but the overall supply - side reduction was weak due to the winter maintenance off - season. They will face significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, and high - level inventory needs to be continuously digested in the first half of 2026 [155]. - Although domestic chlor - alkali production capacity is in a loss situation, large - scale capacity elimination is difficult. Low - profit production cuts of PVC and caustic soda can drive rapid profit repair, but it is not sustainable for more than 3 months [155]. - On the demand side, caustic soda is affected by the negative feedback from low alumina profits, while PVC faces the weak real estate demand pattern [155]. - In terms of valuation, both have many supporting factors in 2026. Caustic soda has high volatility, with an annual volatility of over 30% in recent years, and its forward futures price between 2150 - 2300 has long - allocation value. PVC has large profit losses, but the forward premium restricts the market from trading low - valuation factors [155]. - Overall, in 2026, caustic soda and PVC will mainly show a wide - range volatile market. Affected by maintenance expectations, differential electricity prices, and anti - involution sentiment, the continuous decline space is limited. But it is also difficult to rise continuously before the fundamental situation improves substantially. Caustic soda has stronger price elasticity than PVC [155]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda 3.1.1 Price and Spread - Short - term caustic soda may be weak. The 03 basis and the 3 - 5 month spread are weakening [13]. - The export market has support but is also undergoing structural adjustment. In 2025, the cumulative export volume from January to November was 3.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.7%. The Northeast Asian FOB price has declined to about $350 per dry ton, and the Southeast Asian CIF price is $400 per dry ton, a decrease of $20 per dry ton compared to December 23 [17][20]. - The Shandong - Guangdong regional arbitrage space and the flake - liquid caustic soda spread are acceptable. The flake - liquid caustic soda spread is rising, which is beneficial for caustic soda, while the 50 - 32 caustic soda spread is falling, which is negative for caustic soda [27][30]. 3.1.2 Supply - The market structure shows rising production and inventory. The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 86.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4%. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises is 495,200 tons (wet ton), a week - on - week increase of 1.96% and a year - on - year increase of 76.03% [38][40]. - There are few caustic soda maintenance plans in January 2026. In 2026, caustic soda will continue to see new production, with a capacity growth rate of over 3%, and the planned and under - construction production capacity to be put into operation totals 2.94 million tons [44][46]. - In January 2026, the large - scale industrial electricity price in Shandong Province decreased, and the cost support for caustic soda was weak. Liquid chlorine did not provide significant subsidies, and the cost support for caustic soda was limited [47][51]. 3.1.3 Demand - In 2025, the alumina production capacity expanded significantly, with an expected new capacity of 9.5 million tons. In 2026, the new production in the first half of the year is relatively concentrated, and the annual new capacity may reach 13.9 million tons. However, the alumina industry is currently operating at a high level with rising inventory and losses, and there is an expectation of production cuts in the future [73][75]. - The paper pulp industry is in a demand off - season, with continuous compression of terminal profits, but new pulp production capacity is continuously being put into operation. The finished paper industry has stable operation. The viscose staple fiber industry has rising operation, while the printing and dyeing industry has declining operation. The water treatment industry and the ternary precursor industry have declining production [88][94]. 3.2 PVC 3.2.1 Price and Spread - PVC may be weak in the short term. The main contract basis is oscillating and strengthening [113]. - Short - term PVC may be weak. The main contract basis is oscillating and strengthening. The short - term PVC market may face pressure due to factors such as high inventory and weak demand. The strengthening of the main contract basis may reflect the current market's short - term supply - demand relationship [113]. 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - PVC production enterprises' capacity utilization rate is 79.67%, a week - on - week increase of 1.03% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.33%. There are fewer PVC maintenance plans in January 2026. In 2026, except for Jiahua's capacity release, there is no new capacity [120][123]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali plants has rebounded. PVC production enterprises are accumulating inventory, and social inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate. The real estate terminal demand has not shown obvious improvement, the overall downstream PVC operation has decreased month - on - month, and the PVC export expectation has weakened. Since April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for PVC and other products has been cancelled, which will increase the competition pressure in the future [127][131][146].

烧碱：关注1月交割压力 PVC：震荡为主 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2026年1月4日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 烧碱价格及价差 02 烧碱供应 03 烧碱需求 04 PVC价格及价差 05 PVC供需 06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 烧碱观点：关注1月交割压力 | 供应 | 中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为86.0%，较上周环比+1.3%。分区域来看，山东区域负荷先增后降，均值环比有所提升； | | --- | --- | | | 江西伴随着检修设备恢复带动开机提升；河南负荷小幅下滑。下周国内氯碱设备检修及重启并存，预估整体开机仍小幅上移。 | | | 氧化铝方面，短期因"反内卷"消息出现反弹，但基本面仍是高产量、高库存的格局，边际装置利润亏损，氧化铝减产只是时间问题。虽 | | 需求 | 然年底到明年年初氧化铝存在新增产能，但因耗碱量差异，未来 ...

投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年12月28日 烧碱：短期反弹高度有限，关注1月交割压力 PVC：短期反弹高度有限 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 4 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 烧碱价格及价差 02 烧碱供应 03 烧碱需求 04 PVC价格及价差 05 PVC供需 06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 烧碱观点：短期反弹高度有限，关注1月交割压力 | 供应 | 中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为86.0%，较上周环比+1.3%。分区域来看，山东区域负荷先增后降，均值环比有所提升； | | --- | --- | | | 江西伴随着检修设备恢复带动开机提升；河南负荷小幅下滑。下周国内氯碱设备检修及重启并存，预估整体开机仍小幅上移。 | | 需求 | 氧化铝方面，短期因"反内卷"消息出现反弹，但基本面仍是高产量、高库存的格局，边际装置利润亏损，氧化铝减产只是时间问题。虽 然年底到明年年初 ...

烧碱：后期仍有压力 PVC：趋势偏弱 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 烧碱价格及价差 02 烧碱供应 03 烧碱需求 04 PVC价格及价差 05 PVC供需 06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 烧碱观点：后期仍有压力 供应 中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为84.7%，较上周环比-1.5%。分区域来看，华北有前期负荷不满装置提负，负荷小幅上 升，华北+0.3%至82.4%，其中山东-0.1%至92.9%。华东、西南、华中、华南负荷下滑，华东、华南地区存在企业检修，负荷下滑明显 ， 华东-6.0%至71.9%，西南-5.3%至79.0%，华南-4.6%至84.5%，华中-0.8%至81.9%。其它大区基本稳定。 需求 氧化铝方面，由于高产量、高库存的格局，利润被持续压缩，氧化铝减产只是时间问题。虽然年底到明年年 ...