烧碱：关注1月交割压力 PVC：震荡为主 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2026年1月4日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 烧碱价格及价差 02 烧碱供应 03 烧碱需求 04 PVC价格及价差 05 PVC供需 06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 烧碱观点：关注1月交割压力 | 供应 | 中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为86.0%，较上周环比+1.3%。分区域来看，山东区域负荷先增后降，均值环比有所提升； | | --- | --- | | | 江西伴随着检修设备恢复带动开机提升；河南负荷小幅下滑。下周国内氯碱设备检修及重启并存，预估整体开机仍小幅上移。 | | | 氧化铝方面，短期因"反内卷"消息出现反弹，但基本面仍是高产量、高库存的格局，边际装置利润亏损，氧化铝减产只是时间问题。虽 | | 需求 | 然年底到明年年初氧化铝存在新增产能，但因耗碱量差异，未来 ...

投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年12月28日 烧碱：短期反弹高度有限，关注1月交割压力 PVC：短期反弹高度有限 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 4 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 烧碱价格及价差 02 烧碱供应 03 烧碱需求 04 PVC价格及价差 05 PVC供需 06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 烧碱观点：短期反弹高度有限，关注1月交割压力 | 供应 | 中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为86.0%，较上周环比+1.3%。分区域来看，山东区域负荷先增后降，均值环比有所提升； | | --- | --- | | | 江西伴随着检修设备恢复带动开机提升；河南负荷小幅下滑。下周国内氯碱设备检修及重启并存，预估整体开机仍小幅上移。 | | 需求 | 氧化铝方面，短期因"反内卷"消息出现反弹，但基本面仍是高产量、高库存的格局，边际装置利润亏损，氧化铝减产只是时间问题。虽 然年底到明年年初 ...

烧碱：后期仍有压力 PVC：趋势偏弱 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 烧碱价格及价差 02 烧碱供应 03 烧碱需求 04 PVC价格及价差 05 PVC供需 06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 烧碱观点：后期仍有压力 供应 中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为84.7%，较上周环比-1.5%。分区域来看，华北有前期负荷不满装置提负，负荷小幅上 升，华北+0.3%至82.4%，其中山东-0.1%至92.9%。华东、西南、华中、华南负荷下滑，华东、华南地区存在企业检修，负荷下滑明显 ， 华东-6.0%至71.9%，西南-5.3%至79.0%，华南-4.6%至84.5%，华中-0.8%至81.9%。其它大区基本稳定。 需求 氧化铝方面，由于高产量、高库存的格局，利润被持续压缩，氧化铝减产只是时间问题。虽然年底到明年年 ...

1 2025 年 12 月 18 日 玻璃、纯碱： 上半年偏弱 下半年或有好转 ---2026 年玻璃纯碱期货行情展望 张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 Zhangchi4@gtht.com 报告导读： 玻璃方面，玻璃行业核心矛盾仍然在需求偏弱，2026 年需求预计难有大幅好转。期货升水现货，仓单对估值压 力进一步促使玻璃价格持续走弱。需求不佳而期货高升水情况下，如果供应端能够大幅收缩，市场或能逆转。 2025 年下半年政策端开始反通缩、反内卷为未来供应收缩提供了可能，尤其需要注意 2026 年下半年湖北地区 能源转换方面的进度，或是 2026 年供应端变动幅度较大区域。2025 年四季度到 2026 年上半年部分装置因窑 龄、环保等因素停产，幅度预估在 3%-5%左右，如能执行则对市场有明显支撑。在需求端，预计房地产行业仍 将维持匍匐状态，难有大规模扩张，限制行业发展的债务问题需要时间。当然政策端一系列稳市场措施将会对 近年来困扰行业多年的资金周转因素或有可能阶段性缓解，有利于玻璃需求稳定。在估值方面，占国内总产能 56%的天然气装置亏损幅度 15.8%左右，其他煤制气、石油焦类装置基本在盈亏平衡 ...

Economic Outlook - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to "explore economic potential" and integrate policy effects, shifting focus from external uncertainties to overall changes in the environment[2] - The assessment of risks has cooled, with a shift from "guarding against systemic risks" to "orderly resolution of local government debt risks" for 2026[2] - The focus for 2026 will be on "developing new productive forces" and "unifying the national market," indicating a structural shift in economic strategy[4] Demand-Side Strategies - The conference highlighted the need to "stabilize investment" and "support the real estate market," indicating a structural optimization towards real economy stability[5] - A new emphasis on "urban and rural residents' income increase plans" was introduced, expanding the scope of income growth initiatives[5] - The approach to real estate has become more proactive, with policies encouraging the acquisition of existing homes for affordable housing[5] Supply-Side Initiatives - The focus on "deepening the rectification of 'involutionary' competition" and reinforcing the role of enterprises in innovation was emphasized[6] - The "dual carbon" strategy will lead to significant energy efficiency improvements and the establishment of a new energy system[7] Policy Framework - The monetary policy remains "appropriately loose," with a focus on maintaining liquidity and promoting economic stability and reasonable price recovery[8] - Fiscal policy will maintain necessary deficits and optimize expenditure structures, rather than expanding beyond 2025 levels[8] - The goal of monetary policy will include combating deflation, indicating a shift towards stabilizing prices and supporting economic growth[8] Asset Class Outlook - The report suggests that the risks associated with external and internal factors have decreased compared to 2025, with a focus on balancing asset prices and expanding domestic demand[10] - Investors are advised to consider a structural rebalancing in 2026, increasing allocations towards stock market profitability and commodity market inflation trends[10] - The stability of the US dollar and its impact on domestic liquidity will be crucial for the macroeconomic outlook[11]

本文字数：1966，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 黄思瑜 "今年中国股市是全球表现最好的市场，到年末难免有一些获利回吐的压力，我们投的是中国公司在全 球地位不断上升的趋势。"莲华资产管理公司管理合伙人兼首席投资官洪灝称。 洪灝是在11月21日举办的"2025第一财经金融价值年会"上作出上述表述的。对于今年中国股市的上 涨，有观点认为没有基本面支撑，但洪灝持反对意见。他认为，中国股市的运行有基本面支撑，支撑经 济基本面的核心力量由房地产转变为新能源、半导体、高端制造等新兴产业。 2025.11. 25 在洪灝看来，"9.24"以来的行情没有修复完，随着工业利润不断修复，将支持上证指数继续创新高。 中国股市最值得期待的"第五浪"刚刚开始，涨幅可能超出普遍预期。 通缩预期有望修复 近三年，中国的上游行业基本处于通缩状态，今年通缩压力开始向下游传导，具体体现在需求不振、内 卷等方面。 "今年我觉得最有意义的事情，就是反内卷的具象化。反内卷讲了一年多，但是一直没有具体落地，导 致产能继续过剩和无序价格竞争升级，下游也出现通缩现象。"洪灝说。 "我们看到的上游反通缩工作，在未来几个月会逐渐传导到下游。"洪灝的逻 ...

"今年中国股市是全球表现最好的市场，到年末难免有一些获利回吐的压力，我们投的是中国公司在全球地位不断上升的趋势。"莲华资产管理公司管理合伙 人兼首席投资官洪灝称。 通缩预期有望修复 近三年，中国的上游行业基本处于通缩状态，今年通缩压力开始向下游传导，具体体现在需求不振、内卷等方面。 "今年我觉得最有意义的事情，就是反内卷的具象化。反内卷讲了一年多，但是一直没有具体落地，导致产能继续过剩和无序价格竞争升级，下游也出现通 缩现象。"洪灝说。 "我们看到的上游反通缩工作，在未来几个月会逐渐传导到下游。"洪灝的逻辑在于，最近10年猪肉行业利润率和工业金属价格基本上同涨同跌，7月份，工 业金属价格和猪肉利润率开始有所提升。虽然最后价格没有很大的变化，但是猪农的利润率发生比较明显的变化。 就上游的通胀情况来看，洪灝说，如果现在看到铁矿石的价格开始回暖，在未来3～6个月也会看到上游的PPI（工业品出厂价格指数）通缩压力减少。同 时，消费意愿也滞后3～6个月，也就是说如果现在看到上游的通缩预期在逐步消退，未来3～6个月应该会看到上游的价格以及消费预期都会开始有所回暖。 "现在大家可能没有感受到，毕竟上游传导需要一段时间，但是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fundamental support for the Chinese stock market has shifted from real estate to emerging industries such as new energy, semiconductors, and high-end manufacturing, indicating a robust market outlook despite potential profit-taking pressures by year-end [1][7]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The Chinese stock market is currently the best-performing market globally, with expectations for continued growth driven by the rising global status of Chinese companies [1]. - The ongoing market rally since September 24 has not fully recovered, but industrial profit recovery is expected to support the Shanghai Composite Index in reaching new highs [4]. - The anticipated "fifth wave" of the stock market is just beginning, with potential gains exceeding general expectations [4][9]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Recent years have seen upstream industries in China experiencing deflation, with this pressure now beginning to affect downstream sectors, leading to weak demand and increased competition [5]. - The recovery of upstream inflation is expected to gradually transmit to downstream sectors over the next 3 to 6 months, potentially improving consumer sentiment and spending [5][6]. - Industrial profits have shown significant growth, exceeding 20% in September and October, indicating a positive trend in upstream enterprises [6]. Group 3: Fundamental Support for the Stock Market - The previous reliance on real estate as a fundamental indicator has diminished, with its contribution to GDP now around 10%, while emerging sectors like new energy vehicles and high-end manufacturing are gaining prominence [7]. - The performance of gold and silver has reached historic highs, suggesting significant changes in the economic landscape, including rising U.S. national debt and aggressive fiscal policies in Japan [7]. - The cyclical nature of the Chinese economy suggests that each economic cycle lasts approximately 3 to 4 years, with current indicators reflecting a return to relative cyclical highs [8]. Group 4: Long-term Market Outlook - The relationship between the Shanghai Composite Index and industrial profits indicates that as industrial profits recover, the index is likely to continue reaching new highs [8]. - The long-term trend suggests that the yield curve for long-term bonds will continue to steepen, which is a key economic indicator [8]. - The wave theory applied to the Chinese stock market suggests that the current phase is just beginning, with expectations for substantial growth ahead [9].

Core Insights - The global economy is seeking a new balance amid downward pressures and structural challenges, with geopolitical conflicts and supply chain restructuring posing significant tests [3] - The "2025 First Financial Value Annual Conference" focused on key topics such as the internationalization of the RMB, new trends in the Chinese economy, and paths to enhance household consumption [3][4] Group 1: RMB Internationalization - China is entering a "dual investment" phase, balancing "bringing in" and "going out" investments, amid a backdrop of global trade adjustments and rising geopolitical risks [5][7] - Since the Belt and Road Initiative, China's outbound direct investment (ODI) has rapidly increased, surpassing foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2015, with a significant diversification of trade partners [7] - The internationalization of the RMB is expected to accelerate during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with breakthroughs in trade settlement, payment systems, and reserve allocation, although it remains mismatched with China's economic scale [7][9] Group 2: Economic Growth and Consumption - The new quality productivity, driven by technological innovation and deep integration with the industrial chain, is becoming a core variable in China's economic growth [9][11] - There is potential for an increase in household consumption over the next five years, but challenges such as income structure, family burdens, and aging population must be addressed [11][13] - Solutions to enhance consumption include systemic reforms, stabilizing the real estate and capital markets, and improving service supply and market regulation [13] Group 3: Market Trends and Investment Opportunities - The global economy is at a crossroads, with rising gold prices reflecting market uncertainty and diverging monetary policies reshaping global asset allocation [15] - The contribution of real estate to the economy has decreased to about 10%, while the stock market benefits from emerging industries and economic recovery [17] - Long-term investment opportunities remain in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, with the stock market's upward trend expected to continue [17][18]

Group 1 - The global economy is seeking a new balance amid downward pressures and structural challenges, with geopolitical conflicts and supply chain restructuring posing significant tests [1] - The "2025 First Financial Annual Financial Value Conference" held in Shanghai focused on key topics such as the internationalization of the RMB, new trends in the Chinese economy, and paths to enhance household consumption [1] - The conference highlighted influential figures in the financial industry who have significantly impacted industry transformation and market research [1] Group 2 - Three key trends are shaping the current global landscape: deep adjustments in globalization, the rise of protectionism, and the integration of technology with the economy [2] - China is entering a "dual investment" phase, balancing both inbound and outbound investments [2] Group 3 - Since the Belt and Road Initiative, China's outbound direct investment (ODI) has rapidly increased, surpassing foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2015 and maintaining a leading position in most years [3] - The structure of China's trade partners has diversified, with exports to the US, EU, and ASEAN decreasing from 50.8% in 2019 to 45.5% in 2024, while exports to Belt and Road countries have risen to approximately 47% [3] Group 4 - The internationalization of the RMB is expected to accelerate during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with significant breakthroughs in trade settlement, payment systems, and reserve allocation over the past 16 years [3][5] - The necessity for RMB internationalization has increased due to changes in the global trade landscape and rising dollar credit risks [5] Group 5 - The new core variable of China's economy is the new quality productivity, driven by technological innovation and deep integration with the industrial chain [5] - The contribution of real estate to the economy has decreased to about 10%, while the stock market is benefiting from emerging industries and economic recovery [12] Group 6 - The long-term trend of the Chinese stock market remains upward, with investment opportunities in sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, new energy vehicles, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence [12] - The conference included discussions on wealth growth in a low-interest-rate environment, emphasizing a shift from single yield pursuit to long-term stable allocation strategies [12][13]